As usual, the offseason has brought a few fairly significant long-term deals. Though we haven’t seen any nine-figure strikes — yet, at least — teams have staked a variety of interesting long-term bets on players who weren’t particularly close to free agency.
Since the start of February, in particular, three players with multiple years of control remaining have received guarantees that secure their financial future. But how wise were these investments? While it’s easy to like most early-career extensions — they are typically reached with young players who have played well at the game’s highest level, after all — they don’t all work out. The budgetary impact will never be as large as a pact to keep a top star off the market (or to bring one in), but even these early-career deals turn non-obligatory control rights into massive financial commitments that can hinder organizational flexibility.
Here are the most recent deals, with polls for each asking you to grade the merit of the investment:
Carlos Martinez, SP, Cardinals: five years, $51MM with two options ($17MM, $18MM): The first-time arb-eligible righty could be on the cusp of blooming into an established, top-of-the-rotation arm at 25 years of age. This deal extends the club’s control span over Martinez by four years, so there’s clear upside here. But it also comes with a hefty up-front promise and passes the risks inherent to pitching on to the Cards. The closest comp to this agreement, Matt Harrison’s $55MM deal with the Rangers, shows that there’s downside as well.
(Poll link for app users.)
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Kevin Kiermaier, CF, Rays: six years, $53.5MM with one option ($13MM): Kiermaier was a Super Two player, so this deal boosts Tampa Bay’s control by three seasons. Only one of those is left to the team’s discretion, leaving the organization fairly firmly committed to the defensive whiz. While his glove gives him a lofty floor, that’s also dependent upon maintained athleticism. And Kiermaier hasn’t yet shown he’s more than an average hitter. If he can do that and keep tracking down just about everything hit in his general direction, he could be a star.
(Poll link for app users.)
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Tim Anderson, SS, White Sox: six years, $25MM with two options ($12.5MM, $14MM): Announced just yesterday, this deal is quite a bit different than the others. Anderson hasn’t even completed a full season in the majors, and remains a highly variable player despite the evident talent. Understandably, he could only secure about half the guarantee of the other players, though he did easily beat the prior record for a sub-1 MLB service extension (Chris Archer, $20MM). Notably, this contract only promises to pay Anderson through his arbitration-eligible seasons (assuming he’s able to remain in the majors from this point forward), meaning the South Siders only extended their control rights by two years but also didn’t have to promise to pay Anderson too far out.
(Poll link for app users.)
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Carlos Martinez deal——-: A-
Kevin Kiermaier Deal——-: B-
Tim Anderson deal:——-A+
The way I see it, the Martinez deal was a great bargain at the time that panned out so far.
The Kiermaier deal might be good, but Rays could’ve done better.
The Tim Anderson deal IMO is the best extension on paper at the time, I also think it might be one of the best deals in history, if it pans out. Very little downside.
All 3 deals look good for the team more-so than the player. But I like Anderson’s the most, from the White Sox standpoint. Giving a former 1st round pick who mastered the minors and just had a very strong Rookie year this deal, which buys out some FA years, is just WOW. This could be like the Evan Longoria and Bumgarner deals all over again.
How was the Martinez deal a “bargain at the time that panned out so far?” He hasn’t thrown a single pitch in a single season since signing the deal.
Probably meant track record…
That still doesn’t make any sense
Maybe he meant track record for the Dominican team?
Sorry. I actually thought Martinez signed that deal after the 2015 season. I should’ve looked it up.
The Anderson deal does not buy out an FA years, just arbitration.
Really? I thought I heard otherwise. Therefore I guess I should be double checking my ” facts”
The guaranteed portion only covers his pre-arb/arb years, but the two team options cover what would be his first two FA years at $12.5M and $14M.
I loved the Martinez and Kiermaier deals, but not so much the Anderson contract. The Cards acquired controllable years for a TOR pitcher for multiple years into free agency at what could be significantly below market value. The Rays, in my mind, put Kiermaier in the exact mold of Adam Eaton. The Sox, although I agree with what they have done this offseason took a gamble on a guy that has decent floor because of his defense, but lower upside because of red flags in his offense.
Exactly what I was thinking regarding Anderson. He had a nice average last year but his OBP wasn’t really that good and there’s always the possibility that he regresses.
Exactly. Low OBP + unsustainable BABIP looks like he likely regresses some. Anderson looks like good floor, iffy ceiling.
If Anderson ends up a .270 with no walks, that’s still not a bad deal for the White Sox over five years. I think he looks more like Jean Segura with good defense, though. So if he ends up more like .300, he’s a huge bargain.
Do you realize that if Jean Segura is healthy and productive this season, he will earn around $20 million for his first 6 years. Brandon Crawford will earn less than $19 million for his first 6 years. The White Sox just guaranteed Anderson $25 million for his first 6 seasons and he has some large red flags with his strike zone judgement. Over the last 50 years, his BB/K is the worst all time for any rookie with over 400 PA. I’m happy for Anderson, but unless he takes some large steps forward this extension could be a wash or worse.
Anderson’s deal, because of his very limited experience, gets an “incomplete”
The Martinez deal is the best deal of the 3. Anderson has never shown consistent ability to take a walk, so his OBP will always be driven on average alone. Kiermaier seems to be Peter Bourjos with a better bat, which is pretty good (5.5 WAR), but I question his ability to continue to hit consistently..
Martinez is a top of the rotation arm at age 25 where the Cardinals will be getting his prime years and just coming off a 5.9 WAR season. He is the staff ace and was the staff ace last season as well. His comp is Matt Harrison, who was never considered to be a staff ace (due to his low K numbers), but was still paid more than what Martinez is getting..
Where are you getting 5.9?
low K numbers as an evidently major determining factor for “staff ace”? is this new? somewhere, Jamie Moyer is smiling…
Lets grade contracts that are ending! 20/20 hindsight is fun!
Kiermaiers is the best but Martinez is a close second. Andersons was good but not in the same way the other two were
Why isn’t the Odubel Herrera deal here? Had an 8 WAR over 2 seasons. If he only has half of that each season of the 5 year deal, that’s a total of 18 WAR. That has to merit at least consideration.
Martinez:
For the Player FAIR
For the Team FAIR
He is a good pitcher, he isn’t an ace, and he isn’t being paid for being an ace.
Kiermaier
For the Player AMAZING
For the Team FAIR
For that money the Team has him locked, he isn’t great and he won’t ever be great, that’s why he isn’t getting great money comparatively to a Cespedes. The team is getting what they are paying for, Kiermaier won’t get that money in Japan or in Korea.
Anderson
For the Player FAIR
For the Team AMAZING
He is getting paid for what he has shown thus far. And the team is locking him up, for a long time at a team friendly deal. He should have waited.