If the first couple months of the major league season are any indication, two of baseball’s best hitters are emerging in New York. In the Bronx, there’s Yankees right fielder and American League Rookie of the Year front-runner Aaron Judge; in Queens, Mets outfielder Michael Conforto has rebounded from an underwhelming 2016 to fare even better than he did during his sensational rookie campaign in 2015.
Given that Judge looked lost during his first big league stint last season, his success this year has come as a bigger surprise than Conforto’s. The 6-foot-7, 275-pound behemoth did notch four home runs in only 95 plate appearances, but that came with an alarming strikeout rate (44.2 percent) and a horrid .179/.263/.345 batting line. To his credit, though, the 25-year-old Judge worked prior to the season on cutting down his strikeouts and making more contact, as FanGraphs’ Travis Sawchik detailed earlier this month, and the results have been excellent. Everything is trending right for Judge – his strikeout rate is down to a manageable 29 percent; his contact rate has shot up exactly 10 points (from 60.2 percent to 70.2 percent); his walk rate has climbed from 9.8 percent to a terrific 14.2 percent; his out-of-strike zone swing rate has fallen from 33.6 percent to 25.5 percent; and his swinging-strike rate is at 12.4 percent after sitting at 18.1 percent last year.
All of Judge’s gains have helped lead to a .316/.421/.665 line in 183 PAs – not to mention a first-place start for the Yankees – and he currently ranks third in the majors in both wRC+ (192, trailing only Mike Trout and Freddie Freeman) and isolated power (.348, again behind only Trout and Freeman), and second in home runs (15, one behind Trout and tied for second with Bryce Harper). While an unsustainable .391 batting average on balls in play has propped up Judge’s numbers, his production still looks legitimate when factoring in the degree to which he has punished baseballs. Judge’s expected weighted on-base average, which uses exit velocity and launch angle to gauge a hitter’s performance, is sitting at .427 – not far below his actual wOBA of .450 – per Baseball Savant. As great as Judge has been offensively, he has also held his own with the glove, ranking fifth among outfielders in Defensive Runs Saved (seven, behind well-known defensive wizards Jackie Bradley Jr., Mookie Betts, Kevin Kiermaier and Byron Buxton) and a respectable 34th among 70 qualifiers in UZR/150 (2.7).
Conforto, meanwhile, hasn’t been on Judge’s level defensively (a combined minus-one DRS and minus-5.2 UZR/150 at all three outfield positions); however, as Judge has been this season, Conforto was outstanding with the glove during his rookie year (nine DRS, 26.5 UZR/150), so there’s reason for hope going forward. Regardless, the bulk of the 24-year-old Conforto’s value will always come from his bat, and the lefty-swinger has done his best to match the right-handed Judge and keep the woebegone Mets afloat this season. Conforto, after hitting a so-so .220/.310/.414 in 348 major league PAs last season and even earning a minor league demotion, is now sitting at .322/.416/.658 with 13 homers and a 13.3 percent walk rate (against a strikeout percentage of 24.9) in 173 trips to the plate this year. He ranks fifth in the majors in ISO (.336) and sixth in wRC+ (178), and while he’s also running a BABIP (.370) that won’t last, his .391 xwOBA (down from a .440 wOBA) is indicative of a superstar-caliber hitter.
While Judge and Conforto have torn apart major league pitching this year, the fact that the two are thriving isn’t completely shocking, as each cracked various top 100 lists as prospects. Now, both sluggers are more than living up to the hype they generated before their major league tenures began. With Judge and Conforto potentially in the midst of becoming franchise cornerstones, I’ll ask you the same question Joel Sherman of the New York Post presented to major league scouts and front office executives earlier this week: Who’s the better long-term piece?
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
“…Judge looked list…” What does that mean?
It was supposed to say “lost” and was fixed a couple minutes ago. Edits take a little while to show up sometimes.
Why do people nitpick stuff?
Because without nitpicking grammar, these people would be list.
gif-finder.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Aziz-Ans…
Is a defensive mechanism to battle their own insecurities…
judge
Conforto no question in my mind.
Why though?
Judge will have better power numbers and may be the better player more years than conforto going forward the next five years or so. But then the body of judge will play its roll and I think that will allow conforto to play at an upper lever for a longer time. Judge is a superstar and a once in a lifetime talent in a once in a life time body. But look at Stanton, look at Duda, look at Any of the larger players and look at total dl stints. Sucks but it will be a fact of life for judge. Not saying conforto can’t have injuries since he is a more normal build, hell he is on the mets which means he most likely will have injuries, but theoretically speaking, conforto will have a longer and steadier career than judge in my opinion.
“Judge is a superstar and a once in a lifetime talent in a once in a life time body.”
WAY too early to make those claims IMO
His relative wrote that I’m assuming. Once in a lifetime… Ted Williams, Babe Ruth, Trout… Judge looks good, not that good.
Meant the talent potential. Sorry. But the body is without a doubt once in a lifetime. As he is the tallest player to ever play.
But yes, sorry about the confusion on the talent part. And no. I’m a mets fan. Not a judge relative. Sorry I’m not perfect with my writing.
Tallest to ever play? There have been two 6’10 players.. even a former yankee… Randy Johnson???
He’s not the tallest position player to ever play – that’s Nate Freiman. But Judge is one of the ten tallest position players ever. But there’s been dozens of pitchers taller than him. Tallest player to ever play was Jon Rauch, who is 6’11”
At 6’7″ and 275lbs, he’s essentially the biggest position player ever. Yes, there have been taller, but this dude is a freight train, and yes, a once in a lifetime body. (Before anyone gets offended, Bartolo Colon has a once in a lifetime body too)
Thank you costergaard. And for everyone else, I’m not counting pitchers in my comment.
Can’t assume that since judge plays different position and is an athlete and Duda isn’t. Also this conversation is ridiculous because who cares who becomes a bigger star. Two completely different players. Judge can be a gold glove huge arm in right field for the Yankees with huge power and hit around .260 overall where Conforto will be average arm defensively but will not hurt the Mets in left field with a batting average around .300 and also add nice power. Two different players.
Judge has changed his approach and adjusted so much this year. He can very well be a .300 hitter.
If u think it’s pointless don’t comment.
And Duda comment was about body style
Ever heard of a large man named Dave Winfield? Please don’t include Judge in a convo with Lucas Duda.
I didn’t, the other guy did and your crazy if you think Judge is a .300 hitter. Keep eating your coco puffs. I’m a fan but I don’t even think Judge has a .300 hitter swing. His swing is long and while he will hit for huge power I don’t think a .300 hitter he is based on small sample. Never hit .300 in minors and yes I think he will only learn and get batter and can he hit .300 one year?Maybe, but to say he is a .300 hitter is crazy.
Not about talent. Body people. And Winfield was a different time when players were actually not babied.
You apparently have never heard of a guy named Robin Yount or Cal Ripken JR.
I’ll let you be the “judge” of this. Please use your best “judgment”. Not conforto
Way to early to tell. I’d wait until judge struggles for a stretch and see how well he can adjust once pitchers figure him out.
I mean, he struggled when he came to the majors. But I agree with your point. I want to see him struggle like Conforto did and bounce back from it, it’s too early to tell on Judge. I’d take Conforto anyday since I think at some point Judge will regress to those 2014 Javy Baez tendencies again.
Cubs fans always bringing in their players as examples. Worry about Kyles struggles!
Ooh, Kyle aiming at that short porch in RF during the World Series. Can’t wait.
Yea..working as the hotdog vender!
Definitely too early, although that’s what makes this question fun and challenging (for me at least). I think I like Judge a bit power because he’s uber – athletic for his size, hits the ball as hard as anybody in baseball and has made real strides in cutting back the whiffs. He feels like a higher upside, higher risk play than Conforto, who seems likely to settle in as a comfortably above – average hitter with somewhat poor defense in the corner outfield
I’d say Conforto
Judge is going to hit 40 home runs year, with help from his ball park.
Conforto is going to be 25 home run/35 double hitter, because of his larger ball park.
Judges seems to be a pull hitter but has power to all fields, while Conforto can just hit to everywhere. I’d rather have Conforto because I’m a Mets fan and we have the same first name.
There are 8 or 9 ballparks that are more homer prone than Yankee, so don’t give too much credit to the stadium and not Judge.
Yankee Stadium has the most hr/g this year hittrackeronline.com/stadiums.php
There are no ballparks in the AL which are better home run parks and only Chase Field overall.
espn.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/sort/HRFactor
Judges home runs would clear the wall in any park. The short porch in right at the stadium is irrelevant.
Most of judges homers go to center and right, a few going to left center. I wouldn’t say he’s a pull hitter at all
Not sure if that’s true or not, but even if it is, I wouldn’t say he’s “not a pull hitter” based on where his homers go. Unless he’s hitting nothing but home runs, there’s a lot more to it than that…
According to Fangraphs, his Pull/Center/Oppo percentages this year are 47.1/33.3/19.6. Relative to the rest of the league, those numbers rank as 24th/97th/152nd. So while he may not be strictly a pull hitter, he’s certainly very left-side oriented…
He is a dead pull hitter. Which is not necessarily a problem as long as he adjusts as the pitching adjusts to him by pitching more outside.
Meanwhile, he hits an opposite field grand slam. I keep saying pitchers just need to pitch him outside but now he’s going the other way with it. It’s still early, but the way he’s been adjusting is impressive.
At least there’s honesty about the homerism. Good on ‘ya.
I forgot to include “some” when I said about the ball park help. His GS today was helped by the ballpark, but opposite field power is impressive no matter.
In terms of building- would you rather have a hitter who can hit to all fields or one that is going to hit you 35 home runs? I’m biased towards Conforto, but understand why people want Judge.
Conforto had a great start, then the league figured him out, and now he seems to have made successful adjustments. Judge has had a great start, and at some point the league will figure him out. If Judge can adjust to the league’s adjustments to him, then I’d take him over Conforto (although not by much). Until then, it’s Conforto.
Unless Judge can lower the k rate I would take Conforto. Judge isn’t going to hit for average with a 30% k rate and Conforto’s production looks more sustainable. Both are above average walkers and Judge is graded as a slightly better defender. All in all I still take Conforto because of the ability to hit for both average and power.
Conforto, no doubt it my mind. This kid is one of the best young hitters in the game. Judge is going to turn out to be more of just a power hitter I believe, similar to Stanton. I think Conforto has more ambition, tools, and experience at a younger age allowing him even more time to improve. Conforto is the dominant candidate of the two for a team to build around in my opinion.
Far too small of a DRS/UZR sample to draw any conclusions on Conforto yet. I wish MLBTR would stop using those stats in this way.
According to the guys at SABR, you need about 450 games of data for DRS or UZR to give a good measure of a players defense. StatCast gives us a real good indication, but I have only seen one website that uses the data.
I don’t really buy either of their performances so far, I’d give Judge a couple more weeks before his play normalizes. Then with Conforto, he had a similar start last year and then fell off a cliff. I think both will still be solid this year but not at the all-star level they are performing at right now.
Conforto but I’m a Mets fan so
I think it will be Conforto, but not by a huge margin. I think of Judge as a Stanton type of player, and if he stays healthy, will hit for ridiculous power, but likely only a .250-.280 average. Conforto could hit for a much higher average, and still have solid power in his own right.
Judge. Conforto can’t hit lefties. Conforto = platoon player
Not quite sure what you are talking about because Conforto has hit better against LHP than Judge has.
Hahaha are you serious?
Is Confortos 3 for 14 in 2015, 5 for 48 in 2016 or 7 for 23 which is 15 for 85 for a whopping .176 for his career what your referring to?
Because Judge, who is a righty hitter is 41 for 124 in 2017 and 14 for 69, so 55 for 193 has a solid .305 career average. Vs lefties, judge is 8 for 38 on his career so .210. Want me to continue to show you that Conforto is a platoon player or this enough?
Also Judge is 7 for 23 this year vs lefties… so .304.
Have a good one buddy
Where did you get that? Those are Conforto’s numbers against lefties not Judge’s. Conforto does traditionally have trouble against lefties but has adjusted well this year. At least so far
Those numbers are accurate for this year. Conforto still cannot hit lefties. Look it up. Proof is in the pudding. Conforto is a platoon player
Do you make things up often or is this a new thing for you
See above. Conforto is a platoon player who absolutely cannot hit lefties.
Dude, you literally just said Conforto has 7 hits in 23 ABs v LH, including 3 HR.
He had an sophomore slump for the ages last year and this year has made the adjustments.
Remember- you literally just said he “absolutely cannot hit lefties”, but also said he’s 7 for 23 [with 3 home runs]. Wow.
Correct. .176 career average would seem to back me up. Platoon player
You’re willing to make that call on 85 PA over 3 seasons? Because by your logic, the Mets should bench Conforto for the whole month of June, because he only went 7-59 in a similar sample size to the one you’re making concrete judgments on.
Agree 100%. Sit him vs lefties. Conforto is a platoon player.
Judge is hands down a better player. Conforto will be back in Vegas before you know it.
You’ve got to be just straight up trolling at this point. No one is this oblivious.
Conforto true colors showing now. Average will be below .300 by the end of the weekend. Can’t adjust. Can’t hit lefties. Text book platoon player.
Yes I am. Conforto is a platoon player. Bottom line. Mets brass want him to be the next big thing, but he won’t. This is a franchise in shambles, still lives in the Yankees shadows, and has shown time and time again how clueless they are abiht every aspect of baseball and running a franchise/business
So, let’s use your logic and complete disregard for small sample sizes:
Aaron Judge, a right-handed batter, has 51 AB career against LHP. He’s got 11 hits and 22 strikeouts in those 51 AB. Therefore, he’s strictly a platoon player who can’t hit lefties. Sit him against all lefty pitchers!
I get to see Judge alot more because the Yankees play the O’s every year. He is a beat, but beasts that are 6’7″ tend to have lots of moving parts to their swings which leads to getting off track easily.
If I am choosing a building block for my organization I am not choosing 25 or even 24-year old guys. I want the guy that is good enough to crack my MLB roster at 21 or 22, if not younger so that we have them through their peak 26-27-28-year-old seasons.
That being said, I would take the power. Conforto has a more compact swing which lead me to think that its better for a higher batting average long term and he has good L/R splits at .304/.325. Judge has better power and not quite as good L/R splits at .286/.325. I think his BA and SO rate will regress just based on his long swing.
Judge is better. He can do it all.. Its like some of you dont even watch him when you say “he’ll only hit 40 because of his ballpark”. Judge has monster power, Conforto can eat his wheaties everyday and his drink his glass of orange juice and still wont match his raw power. Along with this Judge is batting .321. Knowing the Mets luck Conforto will regress and Rosario will be a disappointment. So enjoy it while it lasts Met fans.
Or maybe Judge is another Shane Spencer, Bubba Crosby.
At this point I would take Conferto the pitchers have already adjusted to Conferto and no he has answered those adjustments. The league will most likely adjust to Judge and let’s see how he reacts after that adjustment. His sample size is still small he has had a great start to the year, no question he will have big power but let’s see when the league makes adjustments and how he handles that. Conferto has seemed to make the adjustments which makes him him the safer pick.
Judge… because playing for the Yankees when he starts to show sum signs of his legs declining he can DH. But right now I think Conforto is the better overall player. But man is Judge fun to watch swing it.
Not hating on this kid but I sincerely want to know if he has been tested for PEDs. I am not jealous of his talent I just want to know he’s clean before I jump on board with him