A legitimate sense of mystery shrouds Japanese star Shohei Otani, writes Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, as Major League scouts and general managers have no idea whether the 22-year-old phenom will actually enter the posting system and leap to Major League Baseball this offseason. Passan spoke to at least five general managers and multiple scouts for his extensive column, which I’d highly recommend reading in full.
There’s skepticism that Otani will actually leave NPB this offseason, as doing so would mean subjecting himself to MLB’s newly reconfigured international bonus system, which will undoubtedly cost him more than $200MM. Otani’s maximum payday this winter would be $10.1MM, Passan notes, and while many have speculated about Otani quickly signing a multi-year extension after inking his initial deal, that may not be likely. Passan cites multiple “high-ranking sources at MLB” in reporting that “the league expects to be vigilant to ensure the sanctity of the system is not made a mockery by extralegal payments.” Then again, Major League Baseball intervening in a contract would certainly be a bad look, and Passan wonders if the league would actually follow through on such an extreme measure.
[Related: Scouting Shohei Otani]
Passan’s survey of big league front offices and scouting departments resulted in many within the game speculatively connecting the Rangers, Dodgers, Padres, Giants, Yankees, Cubs and Astros to Otani, although the clear takeaway is that no one really knows who the favorite would be. Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union Tribune, in fact, suggests that the connection to the Padres is largely overblown (all Twitter links), especially considering the fact that they’d be limited to a $300K signing bonus.
Several American League clubs believe themselves to have an inside edge over their National League rivals due to Otani’s desire to continue as a two-way player in MLB, Passan continues. Serving as a DH and then pitching every fifth day seems more feasible than playing the outfield between starts.
Further complicating matters is the fact that Otani has yet to even pitch in 2017 and has been limited to eight games as a designated hitter. Otani missed the World Baseball Classic due to an ankle injury and has yet to take the mound because a hamstring injury that Japanese media outlet Sponichi recently reported would keep him out until at least July. A recent report from Japan’s Nikkan Sports revealed that Otan threw a 31-pitch bullpen session but did so at a distance of less than the standard 60 feet and did not throw at full strength.
The injury isn’t likely to be a significant detriment to Otani’s market, though. Teams familiar with Otani are well versed in his repertoire and his skills at the plate, having seen him extensively in the past. The questions stemming from his injury wouldn’t center around a lack of ability to gather relevant scouting data, but rather whether interested teams need to have long-term concerns about these injuries either lingering or recurring. And all of that, of course, assumes he even enters the posting system this winter in the first place, which is hardly a given.
Where can we see what teams are limited to spending restrictions from blowing previous years allotted pool?
If he’s passing on 200+m i don’t think he’s gonna care all that much which team gives him 10.1 vs. 1.5 or whatever
That isn’t the point of OPs comment. Spending restrictions will knock a number of teams out of the running from Day 1. That’s why the question was valid.
He’s also not really passing on $200MM, and I would think he would be all the more interested in getting $10MM over $1.5MM if he could since he doesn’t have the long term security.
I wonder if he could sign a one year deal, play it out with a handshake agreement on a larger deal (while simultaneously building into the contract that he cannot be subject to arbitration, a la Cespedes). Maybe the age rules hamper his ability to do so, and generally, you wouldn’t recommend such handshake deals since so much could go wrong in that one year.
If Otani waited one year they project he would sign a contract of $200 million or possibly even more. By coming to the US prior to the 2018 season instead of prior to the 2019 season he is passing up an opportunity to have his first contract be for $200 million. If he is willing to pass up that opportunity by staying in Japan another season then the difference between a $1 million contract and a $10 max contract probably will have no bearing on where he signs.
Since all IFA contracts are minor league deals, he could sign an extension any time after appearing in the major leagues. There are no rules against that so he would not have to wait until the end of his first season, just until he is actually in the majors. What MLB wants to avoid is him signing a deal for up to $10 million and then be signed to an extension while still technically only a minor league player.
He has already said its not about the money at all. It’s about pride. About competing at the highest level.
90+% of free agents say “it’s not about the money” before signing with the team that offers the most money…
With Otani you are talking about the difference between a $200 million plus guaranteed contract with no penalties for the signing team as a free agent for the 2019 season or a max signing bonus of $10 million as an international free agent prior to the 2018 season. It’s a generational altering sum of money that he is passing up to come to MLB one year earlier. It’s not at all like what other FA say and then sign for a million or two more per season elsewhere. Apples and Oranges. .
I don’t see how he doesn’t wait for the big contract
Yep. Command+F “Phillies” takes me right to stuff after the article.
The Phillies were the star of the movie “42”. How many more decades until they sign their first player out of Japan?
Certainly wouldn’t want that to be Otani. The Phillies are so stacked with talent, where would he play?
You’re kidding right
Pretty sure he’s being sarcastic
No clue why it made me comment twice..
I like it better this way we all don’t need another Dice-k fiasco on are hands
“Passan cites multiple “high-ranking sources at MLB” in reporting that “the league expects to be vigilant to ensure the sanctity of the system is not made a mockery by extralegal payments.””
Yeah, wouldn’t want to make a mockery of such a craven cash grab by the greedy, shameless owners..
He would be nice on the Yankees or Mariners if anybody.
Logic dictates; he is Japanese, majority of Japanese players sign for Mariners or Yankees.
Yu darvish signed with the rangers and I wouldn’t be surprised if they bring back yu and go after otani.
Don’t count on it…!
Dodgers have signed Nomo , Saito , Kuroda , Maeda and a few others that didn’t work out. Just saying.
The West Coast appeals to Japanese players if only because it’s a relatively short direct flight to home.
The Nintendo connection is gone now. Ichiro was signed because the owner from Nintendo said he didn’t care what it cost get him. Even with Nintendo having a minority ownership in the team I don’t see them going all in like that again. Not saying they won’t they have been really quite on the international market it is time they make that big move that surprises everyone.
I have been surprised they haven’t gone after any if the Cuban players that have come out but I am not familiar with Dipoto and his signing of young foreign players. He might not like to take the chance on them. Angels fans would know more.
You forget that he is a 2-way player trying to establish himself so he needs to DH on his off-days to increase his chances at staying healthy.
It will be interesting to see how this unfolds, with his age and the limits of the new CBA, I see him going where ever he wants and not going to the highest bidder as in the past.
Which is, when you think about it, exactly where the player would want to go…..
Yankees are an Otani and Harper signing away from taking over the MLB again.
For realsies
I see him going to the Cubs. Even though he wants to play between starts I think he will soon realize that he will do better with 5 days rest between starts. Plus if he signs with a NL team he will basically give them a DH every time he pitches and won’t need to be pitch hit for either. So I could see the Cubs and Rockies being interested in him
If you’re going to allow a team to immediately sign his to an extension for his big money, you might as well throw this whole international spending limit in the trash. If it’s allowed for Otani, it will be the new go-to loophole.
All IFA contracts are minor league deals. There is nothing in the CBA to prohibit a team from signing him to an extension once he is in the majors. They could not sign him to that extension immediately, but they could certainly come to a gentlemen’s agreement with him ahead of time and then sign that extension mid-season. You can bet that every team is looking for loopholes in the asinine new IFA rules.
Sign a 1 year deal and then just enter free agency. He wouldn’t be passing on that much money at that point
Given his age and the fact that he would be considered an amateur signing, idk if he would be eligible for free agency
He would have the normal free agency timeline. Six years.
It is still possible to sign a minor league deal, which all international free agent deals are, and include a clause that makes you a free agent after 1-5 years instead of 6. Many include clauses that allow the players to opt out of the contract to take advantage of higher money available in arbitration too.
I thought that had changed with the new CBO? I believe Cespedes had a similar clause, but its lon longer allowed?
He wouldn’t be able to sign as a free agent until age 25. If he signs now he would be subject 6 years service before entering free agency. Signing a contract in which a team would grant his release after one year of service would be a possibility but it would a risk in case of injuries and if he does not perform to the expectations it will be another factor to either increase or decrease his value and leverage. In the other hand there are no rules against him signing an “extension” during the spring training.
Why aren’t the Mariner’s on the list of potential suitors?
Oh wait….you’re serious.
I’d be stunned if any American League team would want him to pitch and DH. If he’s already had an ankle injury would you want to risk a star pitcher by having him run bases during the days he should be resting?
Well the thing is that we don’t know yet if he is going to turn into a star pitcher or a star hitter or none of the above.
Agreed. Assuming his main value is pitching (which seems to be the case), he’d still automatically get close 100 PAs a season by starting in the NL. If it turns out he’s got real two-way skills, it still isn’t clear how he’d be better used in the AL. Would he bat on days he pitched, or only on days he didn’t pitch or throw a bullpen?
Well the way I understand the rules an AL team loses their DH spot if the DH is put into the field. Also according to the rules I found the DH rule is actually an optional rule, so an AL team could have Otani bat on the days he pitches.
But still it comes down to if Otani comes to MLB on an AL team and that team sees him as an ace pitcher then there’ no way they’d risk losing him to a random injury by DHing on his rest days.
The DH rule is an interesting wrinkle. I figured in the AL he might get into the lineup on days he pitched but if a pitcher who bats takes away the DH then it would not make a lot of sense to allow him to bat except in inter-league games. Is that what you found? If so another argument for a better fit in the NL.
I think the only reason the Padres are being mentioned is because Nomo and Kuroda work in the front office under AJ Preller so it’s being assumed that he is having them recruit Otani. It’s a logical assumption but highly doubt he signs with SD.
In Passan’s article, he mentioned several other connections the Padres have in Japan and specifically with the Fighters. The Padres don’t have much of a chance with only a $300k signing bonus to give him. No other team will be able to get close to the $10.1 million max either since they have to find a willing partner to trade with to get the extra international signing pool slot money, so the signing bonus would probably be closer to $6-7 million.
I don’t see why a team could not sign him, have him start the season in the majors, and then extend him mid-season just as they could do with other top prospects in their system.
I still don’t think a team with just $300k to give him in a signing bonus could get him, but there are no rules about extending him once he is here and in the majors. With the new rules, all international signings are minor league deals and the signing bonus is just the bonus, not salary. He would get the major league minimum when the season starts if he is in the majors and then just sign him to a long-term contract that buys out all of his arb years and maybe 1-2 FA years too. Give him the money he wants and lock him up.
There are large asian communities on the West coast and in upper New England area. Otani needs to consider them first.. Even Darvish has privately said he wants back to California.
How can Darvish want back to California when he never played there? Wishful thinking.
Maybe he’s thinking of the WBC. 😉
I don’t see many AL teams actually DH’ing him between starts. He’s going to be facing better pitching here, he’s most likely going to need to adjust to the pitching schedule, and I’m sure there are better options on most teams for the DH role.
Kinda late to the discussion here, but I’m wondering how Otani’s age – specifically, his exact birthdate of 7/5/94 – would affect his eligibility for the 2019 season. He turns 25 on that date in 2019, so isn’t that when he’d technically become eligible for an exemption to the int’l amateur spending restrictions (i.e. the rumored $200M payday)? (For MLB CBA purposes, I’m fairly certain a player’s age is literal, rather than “the entire season is considered his age-25 season b/c he turns 25 by a certain cutoff date.”) If so, he’d be limited to roughly three months of pitching that year, assuming he was completely ready to go upon signing. I doubt he waits till 2019 to sign, but it’d add another quirk to the situation if he does.
I think everyone is forgetting he is playing in Japan. Is he a talent? For sure, but he isn’t pitching to MLB players everyday and he isn’t hitting against MLB pitchers every game.So back up and don’t crown the man before he’s set foot in the most competitive league in the world. I love how writers use Babe Ruth’s name in some of their articles. Too funny.
You know this a rumors website with speculation every where. Too funny.
What way should we go here? How about “someone who doesn’t know enough about Babe Ruth thinks it’s ‘Too funny’ when writers mention him”, Too funny!
You know Babe Ruth was a successful pitcher before he was the home run king, right? For all of the league leading he did in multiple categories, he’s only a 1-time MVP, and he never won the Triple Crown. Would you care to guess what Babe’s first league leading category was? ERA, Starts, and shutouts… along with more modern stats like ERA+, H/9, HR/9.
The point of this is, you can gloss over it and point at HOFs and say that they’re statistical outliers and shouldn’t even be compared to, but the POINT is that Boston clearly felt that Babe Ruth’s prowess and potential with is arm far exceeded his prowess and potential with a bat. And THAT is the question we find ourselves at with Shohei Otani. Now you’ve been informed.
Babe Ruth hurt his arm pitching somewhere around 1917. His last season as a pitcher he walked twice as many batters as he struck out. He wasn’t long for the mound even before the lively ball era.
Ruth only won a single MVP because for a long time the writers had a rule that a player could only win one MVP in his career. Not sure why that was a thing. But it was.