The Marlins signed outfielder Christian Yelich to a seven-year, $49.57MM contract extension in 2015 with the idea that he’d be a long-term cornerstone in Miami, and that could still end up as the case. However, after rejecting other teams’ overtures for Yelich in the past, the Marlins will reportedly listen to offers for the 25-year-old if they’re not in the playoff hunt near next month’s trade deadline.
At 25-33 and 12 games back of the NL East-leading Nationals, Miami is all but out of its division race already, which leaves a wild-card berth as its only hope. The Marlins are a lofty 9.5 games back of the NL’s last playoff spot, though, and their minus-26 run differential isn’t indicative of a sleeper team whose record is particularly unlucky.
Barring a major turnaround in the coming weeks, the Marlins are probably going to sell in an effort to strengthen their farm system. The Fish clearly need to replenish their prospect pool, which ESPN’s Keith Law (subscription required and recommended) ranked 29th in the majors entering the season and could see promising left-hander Braxton Garrett undergo Tommy John surgery. As arguably Miami’s best trade chip, dealing Yelich would add much-needed talent to the organization’s pipeline, though it would obviously further weaken whatever chances it has to compete in the near future.
Yelich, a 2010 first-round pick who made his big league debut in 2013, established himself as a high-average, high-OBP hitter who could steal double-digit bases and play a quality left field during his first two-plus years in the league. While that blend of skills made Yelich quite valuable, the lefty-swinger didn’t complement it with much power, hitting only 20 home runs and posting a .116 ISO in 1,458 plate appearances. Last year was a different story, though, as Yelich swatted 21 homers and recorded a .185 ISO (league average was .162) in 659 PAs en route to a career-best .298/.376/.483 line and his second 4-fWAR season.
Now, Yelich is again on pace for a respectable campaign (he has accrued 1.3 fWAR in 246 plate trips), but the terrific offensive production he registered from 2013-16 hasn’t been present. At .259/.343/.392, Yelich has logged a league-average OPS+ (100) and a slightly below-average wRC+ (97). With a .132 ISO, the grounder-hitting Yelich has also lost much of the power he showed last season. One obvious problem has been a lack of line drives, as Yelich’s 17.1 percent mark is both a career worst and a 6.3 percent decline from last season.
Even if Yelich’s batted-ball profile stays the same, there are reasons to expect positive regression in his production. Yelich’s batting average on balls in play (.286) is 68 points lower than his career figure (.354), for one, and his .342 xwOBA (via Baseball Savant) indicates he deserves better than his actual wOBA (.319). Plus, Yelich has continued to walk at a solid clip (10.6 percent, compared to a career 10.4 percent), and has not contributed to the league’s growing strikeout trend. Yelich has struck out just 16.7 percent of the time, which is far better than both his lifetime mark (20.4) and the league average (21.6).
While Yelich’s offensive game is the main reason he’s so highly regarded, defense has also been a strength. Yelich combined for 32 Defensive Runs Saved and a 12.3 Ultimate Zone Rating in left field from 2013-16, leading the Marlins to shift him to the outfield’s most important position – center – during the offseason. The returns have been encouraging so far, albeit over a small sample, with Yelich having saved a pair of runs and contributed a 7.5 UZR/150.
Affordable, well-rounded players – especially those who can handle a premium position – obviously carry major value, evidenced by the prospect haul the Nationals sent to the White Sox for Adam Eaton over the winter. Washington parted with two of MLB.com’s top 40 prospects, right-handers Lucas Giolito (No. 3) and Reynaldo Lopez (No. 38), as well as 2016 first-round righty Dane Dunning to acquire up to five years and $38.4MM of Eaton. Yelich is three years younger than Eaton and also comes at a very reasonable cost. He’s due around $45MM through 2021 and either a $15MM club option or a $1.25MM buyout in 2022. Yelich has already outperformed the worth of his contract, per FanGraphs, which values his production at $64.5MM dating back to 2015.
If the Marlins do market the remainder of Yelich’s 20s prior to the deadline, plenty of potential suitors are likely to emerge. Thanks to Yelich’s age and team control, even clubs that aren’t in the playoff hunt this season (but view themselves as near-future contenders) could attempt to acquire him. As such, the Marlins would probably be in position to add multiple high-end youngsters to a system that, in Baseball America’s view, only has one top 100 prospect. That prospect, Garrett, falls toward the low end of BA’s list (No. 80) and is now facing a rather uncertain future on account of his elbow injury.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Where would he go???? maybe Minnesota they could use people getting on base and a high avg guy
My guess is that the Cardinals will attempt to acquire Yelich or Ozuna before the deadline.
but who do they give up to get him it would take all of thier top guys and they aren’t one player away
Yeah aside from Reyes recovering from TJ.
Yelich would cost Kelly, Weaver and Delvin Perez. Don’t know if STL would want to give all that up. Ozuna would probably cost a mixture of those two plus another top 15 organizational prospect.
I think it would be worth it to control either one by the cardinals. They would have to give up Weaver, Jack Flaherty and either Gruchik or Harrison Barder. The cardinals have the pitching prospects to make this trade happen if they want it. They wont give up Kelly with no future in that position besides him.
trade does not get done with out reyes and or kelly. sox got 2 top 30 mlb prospects for eaton and yelish is 3 years younger and has 1 more year of control and already has a bat as good if not better then eatons and is not in his prime yet
I doubt that highly. Not because Ozuna or Yelich aren’t talented but St. Louis has Harrison Bader and Luke Voit sitting at AAA right now. While neither Bader not Voit are known for stealing bases both get on base at a great rate. Voit is a powerhouse who I have seen hit at AA many times. He won the Texas League HR Contest last year in impressive fashion. Though he is listed as 1B he played a lot of LF at AA Springfield and wasn’t bad at the position as others (Matt Adams) were.
Bader is a machine when it comes to getting on base. He is hitting .291 right now with an OBP of .354
Prettiest swing in the game right now, Yelich or Cano?
Cano no question.
Big fan of yelich, obviously, but Cano has always been one of my favorites.
Prettiest swing? Michael Brantley.
They don’t call him Dr. Smooth for nothing.
Yeah his name crossed my mind when I thought about it, a majority of them a lefties. Harper and Cory Seager also have good looking swings.
As for righties, Miggy’s probably takes it. So clean and effortless. Longoria too.
Benitendi!
Benitendi does have a nice stroke.
Now this has me thinking of some of the best swings of all time. Gotta go with,
Lefty- Griffey Jr.
Righty- Manny Ramirez
Switch- Chipper Jones
Mattingly!
I wonder if SF offered Beede + Shaw + Slater if it would get the conversation going.
Also wonder about a potential 3 team trade with Cueto + parts going to a team like Houston or Chicago and Yelich headed to SF with prospects going back to Miami.
You asked that during the live chat last night…
Andy: Does Tyler Beede + Chris Shaw + Austin Slater get the job done for Christian Yelich? I know the Giants won’t compete this year but they’ll still need an outfielder for 2018 and beyond
Jason Martinez:
Not even close. That deal would have to start with an elite prospect and the Giants don’t have one.
Ah serves me right for logging off before the chat was over. Neat! I got a question answered!
Who? Are they baseball players?
No. No, that does not even get the conversation started.
even with arroyo they might not have enough
Minimum 3 top 100 pieces?
Idk why you think these teams look at like MLB pipeline rankings lol. There are many guys on Callis’s list that most teams wouldn’t rank as high. Marlins will be looking for some immeadiate talent in return, like maybe a 24> player who is hitting well in maybe AA. I see players that aren’t on the list, who others think can be all star players. Want an example? Rhys Hoskins, look him up
No one is doubting that. It happens in most deals, namely the example, Sale. But the gap is shrinking by the year. By this point in the year with a legitimate sized sample many prospects have surged and plummeted. Thats the ebb and flow of these lists. Its simply a measure to the scope and size of a potential landing package
If they were looking for immediate talent in return, they’d just keep yelich. They aren’t all that close to being a playoff team, that’s why it makes sense for them to sell in the first place.
Yelich is a premium talent who would attract considerable interest.
Still, it is hard for me to see why Miami would want to deal Yelich unless he were packaged with Stanton in an effort to clear out financial obligations. In that context, I believe Stanton’s contract is such a liability that even including Yelich makes that a difficult deal for most teams.
The Dodgers could be interested and they are one of the very organizations that could handle Stanton’s contract. While I doubt they would include Alvarez, Buehler, Bellinger or Urias in any deal the rest of their prospects would be available. In addition, I could see some of the young, controllable talent (Puig, Pederson, Barnes, Taylor) being included.
That does not make very much sense. The Dodgers management isn’t taking on that contract and adding more control cost controlled talent to the package. It’s the very situation that led them into this mess. I don’t see it happening. If Loria is simply trying to sell Yelich makes sense to strip and reload the farm. It appears to be another fire sale to strip it to bare bones minus Stanton. Once stripped it’d be easier to sell.
Alvarez, Buehler and Puig for Stanton and Yelich.
The Dodgers would keep Pedersen as a fourth outfielder.
Not even close to enough
How can you expect the a team to give up a big prospect haul and take on stantons mammoth contract? There is 295 million left thats absolutely insane. Dodgers wont touch his deal.
With the money stanton is owed? Yes it is.
Pass. Stanton’s a nice pipe dream, but no owner is going to going to take on that contract and give up two elite prospects in the process, especially when they know he’s a so cal kid with a NTC.
That is ridiculous. Stanton and Yelich are both MVP-caliber players. Getting both will cost Urias, Puig, Bellinger, and Alvarez. Both Marlins outfielders are LA natives and are the type of young, marketable, elite stars. Stanton’s contract isn’t a problem. That is like saying no team wants Kershaw because he gets paid $30 million a year.
You are insane.
1. KERSHAW’S CONTRACT IS NOT STANTON’S CONTRACT
Kershaw makes $131 million over FOUR more years ($32.75 AAV), taking him through his age 33 season.
Stanton makes $295 million over TEN more years ($29.5 AAV), taking him through his age 37 season (assuming he’s bought out of his final year).
2. STANTON IS A WALKING INJURY
From 2012 to 2016, Stanton missed an average of 47 games per year.
In just a few years, he’s managed two right hamstring strains, a right quad strain, abdominal strain, left shoulder soreness, a left hand fracture, loose bodies in his right knee, a facial fracture, a left wrist fracture, a left groin strain, among others. He’s only 27 years old. He’s 6’6″, 246 pounds. If you think his body will hold up, you’re insane.
From 2009 to 2016, Kershaw started at least 30 games in six of the eight seasons, and never started fewer than 21.
3. STANTON IS NOT KERSHAW
Stanton has historic power, sure. But he’s a career .267 hitter, and he’s not much of a defender. Even if he had a healthy 162 games, he’d average about 5.4 WAR. Kershaw? He’s in the middle of what’s arguably the most dominant stretch by any pitcher in baseball history. You’re talking an 8.4 WAR per 162 game season.
Right now, Cody Bellinger is probably more valuable that Yelich by himself.
Yelich is 25 years old and owed $58.25 over the next five seasons.
Bellinger is 21 years old and has six years of team control left.
You can expect a .290/.365/.450 with 20-25 home runs, 10-15 stolen bases, and slightly above-average defense from Yelich.
You can expect a .270/.350/.600 with 35-40+ home runs, 10-15 stolen bases, and plus defense from Bellinger, in addition to the ability to play first.
But you want Urias, Alvarez, Puig, AND Bellinger to get Yelich while taking on Stanton’s contract?!?!?
1. That’s pretty funny. Yelich is a premium defender at a premium position whereas Bellinger plays 1B. The Dodgers could easily replace him with a Todd Frazier/Jose Abreu type of addition. And also, that Bellinger stat line prediction is incredibly ridiculous. That .270/.350/.600 is something that Paul Goldschmidt, Anthony Rizzo, Corey Seager, Kris Bryant, and Robinson Cano have never reached before. Bellinger is already better than all of them?
2. Arms are risky. A single injury can ruin a pitcher’s career. Urias and Alvarez are both extremely young and both still carry plenty of bust potential. They are musts to get Yelich and Stanton.
3. Yasiel Puig is a lost cause in LA. The best thing that can happen for him is a move to Miami, where many fellow Cubans live. He would receive the opportunity to resurrect his career in Miami.
4.A comparable blockbuster to a hypothetical Stanton/Yelich trade would be the Cabrera deal to Detroit. That deal netted Miami two, at the time, top 10 prospects, Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller. Cabrera had two years of team control remaining at the time. Yelich alone has five and Stanton has ten. The price for acquiring Yelich and Stanton should be slightly less than twice the cost for Cabrera, because he was a more accomplished and better player at the same stage. However, an Urias/Bellinger/Alvarez/Puig for Stanton/Yelich deal would be perfectly reasonable.
5. The Dodgers are a big market team and haven’t won a World Series in a long time despite having the league’s highest payroll. There should be incentive for Andrew Friedman to acquire two young superstars in their prime.
6. Although a Urias, Alvarez, Puig, Bellinger for Stanton and Yelich deal would be reasonable with some money sent to the Dodgers, the Marlins have a delusional front office and would settle for something less. Another possible deal considering the Marlins front office would be Pederson, Alvarez, Puig, and a veteran starter + loads of money to the Marlins for Stanton and Yelich.
7. Personally, I believe Stanton will eventually play 140+ games at least once in his career and smash 50+ homers. Yelich has a 30-30 offensive ceiling with a slash line resembling .300/.380/.520 to go with premium defense in either LF or CF and 6+ WAR. Yelich also is unquestionably the second best CF in the game after Trout. I think Bellinger’s prime years will look like .280/.400/.530 with 30+ homers a year and gold glove defense, good for 5+ WAR each year. Adding Yelich and Stanton to a Dodgers core of Kershaw, Seager, Urias, Grandal, and Jansen can lift the Dodgers to championships now and in the future.
The Cardinals have the chips to get this done. Reyes, Perez, Kelly, Weaver, Flaherty, Sierra, and more. I don’t think they have the stomach for it. I hope I’m wrong.
Cards need a bigger bat than Yelich. They need a Stanton type bat, but won’t pay for it.
Stanton in RF….Picotty at 1B ….Carpenter back to 3B
Fowler
Carpenter
Piscotty
Stanton
Molina
Diaz
DeJong
Pham / Gyorko
Pitcher
Fowler would have to be included in a possible Stanton deal to help offset some of money, Stanton’s contract becomes more stomach-able if Fowlers can be exchanged to wipe a bit of it away.
Doubt that the Marlins would want Fowler. They’re going to want young talent, like Sierra or Bader, plus pitching.
If the Cards trade Fowler in the Stanton deal, who plays CF? Grichuk? Pham? Sierra still young for everyday CF….
Yeah I doubt the Marlins would want Fowler either but if it meant unloading Stanton’s contract onto St. Louis’s books then they should want him. He will provide value still, it wouldn’t be a sunken cost. He will also hit for a way higher average than Stanton and give you the ability to play any of the 3 outfield spots at a fraction of the cost when compared to Stanton.
Grichuck would assume CF duties if Fowler was included in a Stanton deal.
Three word on Fowler..No Trade Clause!
yeah it would take most of those guys to get him but they need a star to bost them
Wouldn’t mind the Dodgers checking in on Ozuna, as they need another RH hitter. Something like Yadier Alvarez, Joc Pederson, and say another pitcher like Brock Stewart.
Minnesota not a fit, they need pitching.
agreed they aren’t an of away from a long playoff run
plus dont have the prospects to make a deal for someone like him all there talent is in the MLB or rookie and low A ball
Yelich had a 2 week stretch where he struggled. He always turns it on around this time, which he did already start. Yelich will be where he usually is, if not better than usual with the career best K rate, and added power.
As a Marlins fan, neither Yelich nor Realmuto should be moved unless its for something crazy, meaning several top prospects/young pieces under control. Ozuna is a different story since they won’t sign him, but they’ll definitely screw that deal up. I’d pretty much be willing to move anyone not named Stanton, Yelich or Realmuto; maybe Hech into that mix as well.
Marlins may have to move Stanton…..or not be able to sell the team. He’s awesome, but his contract looks questionable. If he stays healthy (and can not swing at that “low & away slider”….ugh..)….and can hit 35 – 45 dingers every year, it’s fine. If not, new buyers will balk at the commitment.
Stanton has a Full No-Trade Clause, too.
If he stays healthy, he opts out, and it was a super team friendly contract. If he for some reason doesn’t opt out, and he stays healthy, it’s not a terrible contract. It’s only bad b/c it’s the Marlins, which is a moot point if Loria actually sells the team. I’m sick of people acting like the Marlins have Pujols deal on their hands right now, and like Stanton is in his mid 30s. Dude just turned 27
Stanton would be an idiot to opt-out of that deal. No way any other team would come close to matching that if he became a free agent so opt-ing out would be a horrible idea for him.
You need to look at Stanton’s contract. It was obscenely backloaded behind the opt-out.
Stanton will not opt-out.
He has 3 years/$77 million left on his deal. If he opts in, it’s another 7/$218 million. Stanton at that price in today’s free agent market makes sense. He only has to put up between 3 and 4 WAR to justify it, assuming you value WAR/$ between 7 and 8 million…
and for the Marlins he is even more important as the face of the franchise, and the only actual player they’ve ever actually at least appeared to try to keep, and build around. He is a necessity b/c of the feeling towards ownership around here. If you’ve ever been to baseball games in south florida, it couldn’t be more obvious how important it was to sign him. Unfortunately, they didn’t do anything else, amd the other face of the framchise tragically died, putting them in this position now
7 years/$218 million would definitely be beaten on the open market in 3 years from now, if he stays healthy, which I expect him to b/c his injuries have all been freak accidents. If he stays healthy this year, he’ll be a monster again. It’s ridiculous to talk about it as some albatross when the guy performs when he is on the field.
I hope you’re right about him. Most injuies have been freak accidents, but he had a knee issue a coule years back….and the hamstring last August wasn’t a freak accident.
I’m a Marlins gan, but would love to see what Stanton would do if he played in Colorado, Philly, Cincy, or Milwaukee (all serious hitters parks….lol)
I was at that game. The hamstring issue was absolutely a freak accident. The way he ran there…he overdid it, and it was obvious he lost his balance. I knew he was hurt when it happened. He had a similar injury in his 1st year, actually, but going into 1st
I don’t know what you’re babbling about, but Stanton has ten years plus an option with a $10 million buyout for year eleven left.
Ten years and $295 million guaranteed.
He has an opt out after 3 more years….
OK, so Stanton would be a free agent the same winter as Mike Trout.
Stanton would have turned 31 before the Winter meetings.
Stanton is 28 in November.
His contract ends when he’s 37 and he gets another $10 million to end it there.
He’s always injured. In his twenties.
Exactly,plus the guy finds his way to the DL,freakish or not. Tulo says hey!
LOL……. I wasn’t at the game but I was watching it on TV…. so I got to see the replays. The fact that he was trying to stretch it into a double when he got hurt…… should be enough to know there’s nothing freaky about that.
Getting hit in the face with a fastball is a freak thing.
Breaking your hamate bone swinging a bat is a freak thing.
Pulling your hamstring cuz you’re trying to stretch a single into a double is pushing your body beyond its limitation. The fact that he stumbled before he got there is also something that’s on him… not any freak of nature.
He would have come back after the hamstring injury if the Marlins had a halfway decent team and were trying to get in the playoffs… but why risk it when there’s nothing at stake.
He did make it back at the end of the year…he obviously played the game after Fernandez died
so?
he would be hard to deal not many teams have what it takes to get him and are close to contending with a need in the outfield. who are the suiters? NYY Dodger’s, cards, Astros????
Cardinals need that power bat badly………but are probably afraid of the $$$………..They have the money, but Mo is pretty tight
He has a full NTC, so it’s not necessarily which teams are interested but who he is interested in.
Stanton has a Full No-Trade Clause.
Kelly, weaver, grichuk, and Sierra, bader or Gomber for yelich. All are good prospects and all are currently blocked in cards org. We are more than yelich away from competing but then I could see them flipping Lynn and oh at deadline to restock prospects we just traded then adding another piece in offseason, that plus coaching change and cards are right there again.
Why do the Marlins want Kelly when they have Reamuto???
Makes no sense whatsoever
Because they will probably trade Realmuto as well and get another nice haul. Kelly would be the immediate replacement.
Weaver, Bader, another arm, and a low end guy for Ozuna?
i dont see that trade happening they are giving up one of the top young outfielders just going into his prime with 5 years of control they want 2 premium prospects and more and luke weaver is a mid rotation starter. it would cost reyes kelley and a couple lower level guys
Stanton in a any trade package? The Marlins would have to eat a whole lot of $$$ they owe him. No sane owner would go there!!!
Doesn’t make much sense to trade him with the amount of years and reasonable salary he has left. Ozuna makes more sense since he isn’t a long term piece.
They can get more value in return for Yelich, though, because of the extra years at a reasonable price.
Yeah way more value. We’re talking about a guy who Jim Leyland, future Hall of Fame manager decided to bat 3rd in a lineup with the likes of Arenado, Posey, McCutchen, Kinsler, Jones, Goldschmidt, etc.
No way they attach him to another player in a trade. Trading him by himself will return extreme value.
Phillies drafted his clone Moniak last year. Package him & others to get Yelich. Still young an affordable
NO.
Bryce Harper.
HE is coming. Bear the cross and wait.
If he was Harper he’d be in the bigs!
I think he would be a really nice fit in Texas, batting in the middle of that lineup for the next 5 years with Odor and Mazara. They still have a couple interesting prospects left even after the Lucroy, Jeffress and Beltran acquisitions. Maybe the dangle a few of them and see if Miami is interested.
Joey Gallo and those prospects might interest the Marlins.
It would cost Texas 2 top 100 prospects in Tavares and Mendez plus Profar and a low level prospect
profar has little vaule. mendez is a number 3 starter if soemone wants yelish they have to think adam eaton type trade 2 premium prospects plus and the rangers dont have that
The team that has the biggest NEED in LF is the Giants. Definitely not a contender this year, but Yelich would stop the revolving door of mediocrity in SF’s LF that’s existed for years. Problem is the Giants have few desirable prospects to send back to MIA, and they’re scared to death of crossing the luxury tax threshold.
yea its going to be a rough few years for giants fans
They’re between a rock and a hard place – talent is thin in the minors, and they’d literally have to deal most of their best players at the major league level to solve that problem.
yea they need to think about a rebuild but they will hsve to start from the bottom with a bad farm system and not much young talent. They might have to pull a white sox but at least the soxs had a few good young players in the majors
Positive regression… Isn’t that progression?
Might as well relocate the team, we have the worst owner in baseball and probably all pro sports in the US. Marlins fans can’t have a face of the franchise we cannot fall in love with our players because they always get traded, it sucks to be a Marlins fan, is a shame.
if your yelish trade proposal is less than what the nats have up for eaton it’s too small. he’s a better player with more control
1) He’s not a better player.
2) He has an extra half year of control, so I don’t think that’s going to be much of a difference maker, especially since his contract is a little more expensive than Eaton’s was.
3) I agree with you that he won’t go for less than what Eaton returned (though not for the reasons you listed). I think he’s very similar to Eaton value-wise (on the field and contract), but he’s a couple years younger, which I think will work in Miami’s favor. He won’t, and shouldn’t, come cheap.