The market for starting pitchers has more question marks than certainties this summer, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports observes. Rosenthal runs down a number of potentially available arms, noting that injuries and/or significant contracts make many of them tough sells. Regarding Zack Greinke, Rosenthal notes that while his contract always made an in-season trade seem like a long shot, the fact that the D-backs are contending and are in current possession of a Wild Card spot all but eliminates the possibility that he’ll be traded this summer.
With the draft out of the way, trade talk should slowly begin to heat up in the coming weeks. Here are a few more items of potential interest…
- FanRag’s Jon Heyman runs down a number of possible needs on clubs that are in contention, beginning with the Nationals. While there’s been much made of the team’s obvious need for bullpen help, Heyman suggests that the Nats won’t simply acquire a closer and consider their relief corps to be fixed. “We don’t need just one big reliever, we need two,” a Nationals source tells Heyman. One potentially available name on which the Nationals don’t appear to be especially keen, however, is closer A.J. Ramos of the division-rival Marlins. Heyman reports in his weekly National League roundup that Ramos is a ways down Washington’s list of potential targets.
- On the American League side, Heyman focuses on the White Sox, who have quite a few interesting trade pieces, as recently examined by MLBTR’s Jeff Todd. He suggests that there are indications the Sox do intend to move lefty Jose Quintana this summer — and they don’t think they’ll need to accept a sub-par return despite his struggles so far. There’s some “belief” that Chicago could be hoping to draw interest in Quintana from the Dodgers, Heyman notes in the N.L. post. Meanwhile, the organization isn’t as interested in fielding offers for first baseman Jose Abreu, per the report.
- Prior to trading designating Sam Dyson for assignment and trading him to the Giants, the Rangers also gave consideration to cutting right-hander Jeremy Jeffress loose, Heyman writes. However, Texas deemed Jeffress more likely to rebound from his struggles and kept him on the roster. I’d imagine that as was the case with Dyson, Jeffress would draw trade interest elsewhere based on his track record and 2016 success.
- Nick Groke of the Denver Post fielded some Rockies trade questions in his latest chat with readers, noting that there’s virtually no chance that the Rockies would even consider moving top shortstop prospect Brendan Rodgers this summer. Groke does, however, feel that outfielder Raimel Tapia is a plausible trade chip. The 23-year-old outfielder entered the season widely ranked among baseball’s top 100 prospects and is hitting .286/.375/.357 through a small sample of 32 plate appearances in a limited role.
- With the Athletics progressing into a youth movement, John Hickey of the San Jose Mercury News writes that top infield prospect Franklin Barreto likely isn’t far from getting his first big league promotion, though Hickey suggests that in order to create playing time for Barreto, Oakland would first have to trade Jed Lowrie. Hickey also notes that the A’s feel confident that Trevor Plouffe, who was designated for assignment yesterday to clear a spot for top third base prospect Matt Chapman, will catch on with another club. It’s not clear, though, if the A’s expect to trade him or are preparing to release the 31-year-old.
Dodgers have held on to their prospects for much better pitchers than Quintanna. White sox are never going to have their asking price for Q met. They supposed wanted the same package Sale got
Didn’t the dodgers say they would offer urias for sale last year? And they held on to him
Sales the second best pitcher in the game. Quintana isn’t even a top 10. Don’t compare the two please
Wow I’m convinced!! We shouldn’t eveb have the discussion. Just out of curiosity, who is your home team? If it’s the Red Sox, take a look at your fan boards when there were rumors of the Red Sox trying to trade for Sale. Much like with Quintana, fans did not want to give up any prospects for Sale either. Then magically overnight he became the best pitcher ever. With regard to your comment that “Quintana is no even top 10”, off what are you basing this? I love seeing claims equally unsubstantiated as they are outlandish, so keep them coming. You don’t strike me as much of a reader, but just in case — http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/11/its-time-to-recognize-jose-quintana-as-one-of-the-best-pitchers-in-baseball/.
Quintana is not a top 10 pitcher and I really like Quintana he is very possibly top 15 or top 20 over the last few years but not too 10. His contract, however, makes him very desirable no he isn’t Sale and what get a Sale return but he has been very good I would consider him a low 1 high 2 with the exception of this year so far. He is still, by far the best trade chip the White Sox have and will get a great return or the White Sox will just keep him. They aren’t selling at a discount because of this year.
Based on what is Quintana not a top 10 pitcher? What are you using as the baseline?
Chris Sale is the number one pitcher in the game
Oh I don’t know FIP, XFIP, War you name it he isn’t a top 10 pitcher but he is very good like I said top 20ish over the last three years look it up I’m just stating facts.
Interesting word choice facts — out of all those metrics you stated, WAR is the best attempt at quantifying a pitcher’s overall value, so let’s start there: AGAIN, since 2014 (you said over the last three years, right?) Quintana ranks 8th in total fWAR. So clearly you are not basing it on WAR, ranking 9th in 2014, 15th in 2015, and 10th in 2016. Not only does this demonstrate longevity, but it also shows he performed at a top 10 level (or very close) in each of the past 3 years. He’s not going to perform as well in the other metrics you mentioned, because his k rate is not that high. So yes, if you are basing your argument strictly on how many guys he strikes out per season, you are right. But that is not his game, so you may as well just limit your argument to Quintana is not a top 10 strikeout pitcher.
Cmon Mac if you cherry pick one stat then you can make an argument but based on your argument he is better then Madison Baum. and Noah S. you know as well as I know he isn’t in that category he isn’t as good as those pitchers he is not top 10 there is no shame in that he is a very good pitcher.
If you want to call him top 10 most durable then I can go with that he is an innings eater who takes the mound every 5 days and WAR loves that. Most pitchers get injured at one time or another he has been very durable.
Wait — you cited WAR has the basis for why you don’t consider him top 10 and then call me out for cherry picking stats? As I showed you above — he is top 10 in war in two of the last three years top 15 in the other. That is based on individual performance each season. I also included cumulative to show how good he’s been overall for a three year period. This is a first cherry picking a stat and it’s WAR — the stat intended to give you the best total view of a player( I.e. Combine all stats). http://www.fangraphs.com/library/war/calculating-war-pitchers/ As you see, war actually starts with FIP ( which you also cited as another reason he’s not too 10) – and includes other factors which account for pitchers that induce soft contact regularly. An “innings eater?!!” Wow this conversation went from bad to worse quickly.
Yes it did when you call him top 10 he isn’t and I like him. I said WAR, FIP, XFip, thrown in Siera, whip, all of those with the exception of War and he is not too 10. You can’t just look at one stat like I said before his WAR is higher then mad Baum and Noah do you think he is better pitcher then them?
Ok who are the 10 better pitchers? If you’re saying he’s top 15 there’s an argument he’s top 10. Throw in the contract and it is very reasonable to consider him top 10 when determining return expectations…
I never argued return expectations for someone with his team control left. I simply stated that he is not a top 10 pitcher in the league. He has a very team friendly contract for the next 3 years I think he is by far the most valuable piece the White Sox have left to trade will he get a Sale type return no he won’t but someone will pony up a nice return for him.
White Sox can restock their entire farm system from trades this deadline, from guys like Frazier, Quintana, Melky, Robertson, Nate Jones, Miguel Gonzalez, Derek Holland. In addition to the hauls they got for Sale and Eaton, White Sox will be set for years to come
Frazier and Holland “might” net a low level lottery ticket. Jones, melky and Gonzalez won’t net diddly doo.
The only real chips are Quintana & Robertson (with maybe Swarzak or Kahnle as sweeteners).
Kahnle’s probably more than a sweetener at this point. Best reliever in MLB (or top 3 at least) with 3.5 years left before free agency. He’s probably more valuable than Andrew Miller or Aroldis Chapman were last year.
I don’t think the White Sox want to move him. But I’m sure for the right offer, they’d listen. Well, at least I HOPE they’d listen. I still don’t have much faith in the White Sox’ front office.
What cmon he is having a nice year but comparing him to the elite let’s not get silly.
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-making-of-tommy-kahnle/
What does that even mean link to fangraphs he is having a nice season maybe you should link to Kenley Jansen, Craig Kimbrel, Andrew Miller, Dellin Betances, just the ones that are superior off the top of my head. There are others too.
Can’t compare him to Miller or Chapman.. sustained success is still in consideration. Otherwise if your judging people based on two months of performance Quintana wouldn’t be worth anything.
True, but Chapman was traded with 0.5 controllable years left, Miller with 2.5. Kahnle has 3.5. There’s risk with Kahnle, but he’s been a top 3 relief pitcher this year. And no one pitching near as well as Kahnle is on the trade market.
With Kahnle, there’s risk of regression. There’s also extra years. He’s pretty dang valuable. But then again, the Sox could hold onto him and trade him for a Ken Giles-esque (or better) package this offseason.
Ok he has not been top 3 this year is he better then Jansen, Kimbrel, Miller no, he has had a good year but let’s not get carried away. The best trade piece the White Sox have is still Q. He won’t get better than a Giles package Giles was better for much longer then Kahnle. I’m not saying he isn’t worth something everyone wants relievers at the deadline but he has been really good only for this year. I think the White Sox will hold on to him anyway if they think he is for real.
Im with you dont have faith in them either only Renteria and Cooper thats about it with manager and also not minor league coaches
Eaton was a HUGE overpay and all teams are aware of that at this point.
Gonzalez and Holland are 5’s at best and won’t command much in return, who wants Jones, and Frazier is having another terrible year. Melky well is Melky but won’t garnish much. Robertson and Quintana ARE the best bets for return but as usual you Sox fans are way over valuing the Q resume….a .500 lefty pitcher. Yeh, we’ve heard all about his ability to be controlled for the next several years and the team friendly contract. Bottom line is he’s not a winner!
The White Sox will not re-stock their entire farm system this year or any year as there are other teams out there probably selling or haven’t you heard that as yet?
It wasn’t a huge overpay lol. Giolito was trending down and Washington sold high him.
I don’t think Giolito was the headlining piece in that deal for the Sox. They sold Giolito before his value completely dropped, but Reynaldo was the key piece for them.
Giolito was not the only player the nats sent. Lopez was also a top prospect. The nats sacrificing all their pitching depth for eaton doesn’t make much sense. If someone goes down they are screwed
I’d agree with that but I think people who say the trade was such a steal for Chicago still believe Giolito is one of the next future stars. Lopez as the headliner plus dunning and giolito is great value and probably an overpay, but it’s not as bad as some people make it out to be
Well that’s your opinion, just like all of us have ours with respect to an overpay LOL.
But that’s also the talent evaluators opinion to though lol
You lost me at “.500 pitcher”. sigh….
Lol I second that buddy. Some people will never learn.
Amazing how you South Siders fail to look at what’s right in front of you with respect to this guy. I think he’s 2-8 this year. Sale pitched for the same team, in front of the same defense and he had a winning record. That tens to help define a “winning” ballplayer.
It’s the fact that you used wins and losses to judge him. Even though it’s very known he is the leader in no-decisions over the past couple years
Still using wins and losses to judge starting pitchers I see…
You can’t ignore record. Just look at Sale’s record with the same team and you might see what I mean.
Certainly, not the only thing to look at but you can’t ignore it either in comparison. 6 years, 48-54….good ERA overall but a “winner”???
Look at Sale’s record during the same time period and tell me if you would pay the same for Quintana as was paid for Sale.
Nobody with a brain would pay the same for Quintana as was paid for Sale, and it has ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to do with their W-L records…
The White Sox are not asking for the same package they got for Sale, which included an elite prospect (arguably the best in baseball), an extremely good prospect on the verge of becoming an elite one, and two mediocre prospects with questionmarks (although Basabe has a high ceiling if he can ever put everything together, which I doubt will happen).
For Quintana, they’re looking for a “Sale-like” package, which means something similar but not the same. They aren’t stupid enough to think they’re going to get one of the top prospects in baseball plus another elite-ish prospect for Q. They’ll still get at least one, most likely two, very good prospects for him (albeit not elite ones) plus a lottery ticket or two. Just look at what they asked the Astros for in the offseason – Martes/Tucker/Musgrove. Those are prospects (outside of Musgrove) that are much lower regarded than Moncada and similar to, if not slightly worse than, Kopech. Take out Musgrove and put in a couple lottery ticket guys, and you have a Sale-like package. It’s worse than what they got for Sale but still acceptable for them.
Bottom line is that if a team doesn’t offer them something enticing enough to pull the trigger, they just hold onto him for now. Not really a huge loss, assuming he doesn’t blowout his elbow before next offseason.
You can ignore W/L. Quintana is not Sale. Hes a good quality pitcher who based on previous data is having a bad year. Hes a solid #2 or 3 starter based on overall stats. Just looking at W/L ignores other facots such as run support. Sale in all honesty could and should be 13-0. The 2 no decisons and 3 losses he has, the Red Sox managed to score arounf 4 runs total. 3 games with zero run support. Wins dont mean nearly what people make them out to be.
Martes and Tucker are both top 50 prospects and Houston’s 2 and 3 so that is asking a big haul
Nobody said it isn’t a big haul. It’s going to take a big haul for the Sox to move him… All I said is that would be a Sale-like package that’s less than what they got for him, but it’d still be a perfectly acceptable return for Quintana. Throwing in Musgrove makes it too steep though IMO.
Sale is arguably the best pitcher in the game, and likely a HOFer (barring catastrophe). Him and Q are apples and oranges. Nobody is suggesting a club will pay as much as RS paid for Sale. Yes, you can absolutely ignore W-L record. You can use IP, ERA, WHIP, Ks, etc. basically anything BUT W-L record to evaluate a pitcher.
Rocky7, 1990 called and they want back their pitcher evaluation algorithm you used for the basis of your post. “He’s not a winner” is your prose — just lazy.
Here’s why–as of May 8, 2016 (sorry most recent article I could find) , Jose Quintana had started 119 games. In those starts the Sox scored zero runs for him 18 times ( a real winner would have held the opposing to team to negative runs and found a way to get that W) one run 26 times, two runs 28 times, and THREE runs 15 times. Meaning, the sox scored three runs or less in 73% of Quintana’s starts, two runs or less in 61% of his starts, one run or less in 37% of his starts, and NO runs in 15% of his starts.
To break it down even more simply, here are pure win loss records for era’s with that type of run support (assuming no no decisions and equal number of runs given up in each 9 inning start) 3.01 era, 41-78; 2.01 era, 56-63; 1.01 era, 77-42; and a .01 era, 101-18.
Essenrially, no pitcher in history wins with that type of support…but let’s not that stop us from holding his win loss record against him.
To address your unsubstantiated attempt to downplay the fact that he’s under control for the next four years, let’s stuff those distractingly convincing W/L numbers into a locker, like you probably did to all those smart kids in high school, and focus on facts brave enough to venture outside the comfort zone of irrelevancy.
Since 2013, Jose Quintana is 7th in fWAR in all of baseball. I know, I know WAR is for 40 year olds who still live in their parents’ basements.
Let’s pick ERA then, it won’t tell us whether the guy is a true winner who can make his team score runs more effectively than Jason heyward in a rain delay– but it should give us a general idea of the pitcher’s actual performance when he’s on the field.
I used 650 innings pitched as the qualifier– I hope you don’t mind.
Quintana is ranked 16th in the MLB in ERA since 2013. I know what you’re thinking Rocky 7– you can’t rely on ERA because it doesn’t account for quality of defense (you just strike me as a guy that will stop at nothing until he gets the credibke insight he craves) — We have to at least look at FIP. Settle Rock, we will get there buddy, be patient. Well would you look at that , Quintana is also ranked 16th in FIP.
If we’re going to look at FIP I mean we obviously have to consider xFIP (I know it’s like I can read your mind)– unfortunately Jose loses a little ground there and is only ranked 26th.
I know by now you’re asking yourself “Who stops a pitcher evaluation there? ” Don’t worry pebbles, this logic train will keep on rolling into ERA minus meyeics. And as luck would have it, there we find the pitcher affectionatly known as “Q” sandwiched between Chris Archer and johnny Cueto in spot 16.
Enough with years of historical data, let’s focus on his dozen starts this year that are so much more meaningful for reasons only convenience can explain. I think we all agree this has been a very unQ like year, but nonetheless let’s take a look at this year’s numbers.
Well color me shocked — without considering tonight’s start (which was quite good) Mr. Quintana ranks 28th in fwar (just ahead of darvish) and 37th in FIP. Uncharacteristically inconsistent start indeed, but perhaps a little overblown by all the people standing in line dying to say “I told you so”, because onviously two months of mediocrity gets way more credence than 4 years of 3.5, 5.1, 4.8, 4.8 WAR.
But hasnt the knock on Quintana always been that he doesn’t have the strikeout stuff needed to dominate a game — well look at that — he’s striking out batters at a career high 8.92/9 clip this year good for 21st in all of baseball. But let’s ignore that now and focus on all the other numbers we previously ignored to discredit him.
And now for his actual contract – 6M this year, 8.8M next year and then two option years at 10.5 M for a total of ~$35 mil over the next 4 years. Other contracts for reference include Nolasco at age 31 – 4 yrs/49M, samardjiza at age 32, 4 yrs/72 mil, Scott Kazmir at age 32, 3 yrs/48 mil. I could go on but won’t.
8.5 M a year for a 5 win player at his best/ 3 win player at his worst ( prorated for this year currently at 1.3 through 13 starts) is valuable — very valuable. The white sox should expect appropriate value in return if they decide tom move them. I just hope the gm’s who analyze baseball players for a living can see past that pesky win loss record that keeps popping up (the 8 no decisions he has while giving up 0 er in at least 7 IP would certainly make me think twice before giving up a few players who would be welcomed with open arms if they end up with careers combined that match the value Quinyana has produced)
Let’s try to put a little more thought into our next post, that way I won’t have to pause world of Warcraft for two hours just to state the obvious.
Great post! The other thing most people forget is any return of prospects is a gamble. Q is a top 25 pitcher in the MLB right NOW at age 28. Even if the Sox get an elite prospect plus a good prospect there is a very real possibility those players will never be the level player Q is now. There is even a possibility that those prospects will never make it as a regular MLB starter. The Sox have Q under control for 3 years after this year for a very reasonable price. The Sox have the luxury of keeping Q for the remainder of his contract since he will be under control about the time many of their top prospects are ready. If the Sox trade Q for anything less than an elite prospect plus more than the GM should be fired.
“.500 pitcher” “not a winner”. You’re a troll.
Not until they replace their entire developmental staff. The sox have no history of having successful position players come thru their system. But, because that staff are all yes men to Williams, we the fans are stuck with losing.
Dream on with the exception of what they can get for Q and Robertson, the rest will not get you Squat
Any team that would give up what the Sox want would have to believe that these first 3 months are a low point and he will pitch like he has the previous 5 season from a trade for through the remainder of a deal.
As long as the A’s are in thrall of Billy Beane, the A’s shouldn’t be talking about “movements” as much as they should be saying “treadmill”.
I interpreted that as Billy Beane is working on a bowel movement, not a youth movement
Wonder what the asking price on Tapia would be. High leverage reliever? Would Dahl be available too?
Bud Norris wouldn’t be enough. Now, Cam on the other hand…
no thanks. Lol
Tapia is a bad outfielder and not a good hitter would not want him period.
The Dodgers will not give up any blue chip prospects for Q. He isn’t worth it. Yes he had has a decent career. But this year he is mediocre and that is all that matters.
You’re right….Quintana is WAY over valued by the While Sox fans who are going and praying they can get another stupid payout from a team like the Nationals did with Eaton.
A’s looking good…
The A’s minor league affiliated appear to be stocked with good players. I can see them coming on the scene suddenly in the next season or two.
I wouldn’t mind lowrie at second since Travis’ injury is making his season look uncertain.
Can Lowrie play 3B? Would be interesting if he could and he goes back to BOS
Lowrie can play all infield positions, but hasn’t played 3B in a long time. He wouldn’t be a great defender at the hot corner, but his value comes from his offense, so maybe there will be a deal. Jed used to play for the Red Sox, so I think they would like to have him back.
Lowrie can play Third Base. You won’t get Gold Glove defense, but there wasn’t any room for him on the field in Houston when Altuve was at 2B and Correa was at SS.
Even if Frazier and Holland only net a lottery ticket, nothing wrong with that. I believe Quintana was considered a lottery ticket when Yanks let him go.
Quintana had to be added to the 40 in NY. A guy coming off a PED suspension and still in A-ball, wasn’t worth the risk of a 40 spot for the Yankees.
I think he was worth the risk….
You’re holding to this jakester? And here I thought hindsight was supposed to be 20/20. Or did you just take a really long time ( 5 years) to gather up the courage to hit that publish button.
I would trade Quintana to the yankees for Sheffields and Frazier and whitesox throw in Swarzak in their
I wouldn’t do that deal if I’m the Yanks. I like Sheff ceiling as a solid number two and I think sky limit for Frazier. I’m also not as high on Q as you seem to be as a white sock fan and I also think dealing top prospects for him is way too risky!
I would deal Matteo and maybe Clarkin and a low a prospect with some big tools such as a Dermis Garcia at most and I still think that’s too risky for a young Yankee team still figuring out which players will be the future core.
Well there is certainly a lot going on in this post. I’m interested to hear why you’re not high on Q– any reason in particular? Also, strange to see you place more value in a guy who’s ceiling is below the proven track record of the guy to whom you are comparing him. Why is the sky the limit for Frazier? And what does that mean exactly? Finally, I’m interested to see what you think a fair return is for Quintana? Maybe Greg Bird? How about Aaron Judge? I remember people were quite down on him last year — pretty much wrote him off — but now he’s the face of the Yankees. Fickle bunch up there — really quick to judge small sample sizes.
Of course the White Sox would do that deal but Cashman is no idiot and the Yankees would laugh and laugh and laugh
This makes sense as after all he is the mastermind that let him go in the first place…
As a Marlins fan, I understand why Ramos wouldn’t be a target as a closer. He has always had command issues, but he has also always destroyed lefties and been a guy that can pitch in high leverage sotuations. And he has gone multiple innings several times in his career, both as a set up guy and closer. To be honest, I’m actually not sure how much control they have left over him. Can’t remember what year of arb he is in, but I don’t know; maybe AJ Ramos and something (maybe another bullpen arm) to the Nationals for Austin Voth, Luis Garcia, Tyler Watson, and Daniel Johnson? Maybe slight overkill, so take something away. That’s not exorbitant. I think the Marlins would do that pretty quickly, and the Nationals wouldnt be using any of their depth to upgrade, and can still easily make other moves….
Chicago got kind of greedy with Quintana, and for good reason, and now his value is down. They don’t necessarily have to move him though. They can hope he reestablishes what he has done in the past, and get something almost as big as they probably could have got in the offseason
The White Sox’s biggest trade chips are pitchers: Tommy Kahnle (3.5 years left), Robertson (1.5), Quintana (3.5), Holland (0.5), and Swarzak (0.5). All could net a significant return.
Then there’s guys like Frazier and Melky, who could net a C prospect or 2.
All in all, it’s a good position to be in for sellers.
Brad Hand for Yusniel Diaz and Trevor Oaks
Q for Schwarber