Tim Healey of the Sun-Sentinel takes a look at Derek Jeter’s first hire in Miami: former Yankees executive Gary Denbo. The Marlins’ new player development and scouting guru is known for working hard to make something out of all of the players in farm system. His attention to detail and willingness to grind could pay dividends for a club that will need to grow quite a lot of talent to make up for what is initially projected to be quite a low payroll.
Here’s more from the eastern divisions:
- Of course, sometimes finding value in players that didn’t quite pan out for other organizations can deliver huge dividends. That has been the case for the Yankees and Aaron Hicks, as Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes. Indeed, he seems now to have displaced Jacoby Ellsbury in center — so much so that Sherman expects the Yanks to “tell teams in the offseason to make their best offer on the veteran.” The article goes on to discuss what kind of trade situations might make sense for Ellsbury, who does have quite a bit of salary left to go as well as no-trade protection.
- Top Blue Jays prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is tackling some goals and having fun at the Dominican winter league, as Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca writes. In particular, the young phenom has been tasked with expanding his range and improving his footwork at the hot corner. It seems that Toronto is interested, too, in exposing Guerrero to the bright lights and relatively high stakes of playing against strong competition in his home nation.
- After interviewing Ron Gardenhire today, the Red Sox are “still deciding” whether to sit down with any other candidates, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski informs Chad Jennings of the Boston Herald (via Twitter). Alex Cora and Brad Ausmus are the other two names under consideration at present. You can catch up on prior developments in the search right here.
“At this point, Ellsbury is the fourth outfielder and that goes for next season, as well. That is why the Yankees will likely tell teams in the offseason to make their best offer on the veteran, including how much they would have to eat of the $68.43 million left on his contract through 2020 to make Ellsbury go away.”
Quote unquote “likely” Oh Sherman…. Yankee fans can only hope. To quote the rest of the article…
“Ellsbury has a no-trade clause, but does he want to stick around the Yankees as an extra player? The match that makes the most sense to me is the Mariners, who are likely to lose center fielder Jarrod Dyson to free agency. Ellsbury was born and raised in nearby Oregon and went to Oregon State. If the Yankees got Ellsbury down to a three-year, $30 million player without the need to get much more back than a marginal prospect, would that make a deal?…”
Believe it or not, this is one of the most positive Sherman Yankee articles, I’ve ever read. Thanks for posting this one, Jeff!
Nice to see Sherman suggesting Yankees are being proactive. Still written at a rather inopportune time with the Yanks making their deep push in the playoffs, but I’ll take it. Sherman suggests if the Yanks swallow $40MM in dead money and get Ellsbury down to three years $30MM, for team acquiring him, may be enough for a “marginal prospect” Interesting.
At 30 mil I think you could get a pretty solid prospect for Ellsbury.
Disagree, mostly because of age and market. While the narrative that his contract has been an absolute disaster is bs (he’s been productive) he will be 34–36 he next three years. Not many eight figure AAV three year deals for non-stars (he’s not anymore) at that age, especially at athletic positions.
Then that he has no trade so most teams know he won’t want to go to them so limited demand. Plus teams might not want him for center (would be surprised if mariners did) and maybe that’d been an issue for him. Then also teams may feel Yankees are motivated to move him, therefor depressing offers.
My guess would be paid down to 3/18-25, Giants, Angels (if upton leaves), Mariners, Rangers, Mets.
Now that Farrell is gone I like to see Boston’s Brass get back to its roots and find the next Theo Epstein. Billy Beane as the President of player operations would be a great start. I love the idea of a young go getter with Tek as the assistant. I want a strong farm system and smart trades and even smarter FA signings. Getting Sale was Smart. I thought trading everyone except Kopech was a great move. I would love to have kept the arm. Thornburg and Carson a complete waste. Drew a good additionbut Sox had Hill …. just needed to sign him out the gate. Austin Maddox should be a part of this pen next year and I believe he becomes the 7th inning guy along with Kelly. Carson and Thornburg will fight out the setup role with Kimbrel closing. I hope our new manager does not get fixated on Save, Holds and Win stays. If DD adds the big bat at 1B and signs Nunez. Holt returns to form adding Swihart to the bench can provide 3 super utility guys giving the BP an extra arm or two. Starting rotation. I always like the concept of pairing the best team. Even if it means Price to Rick Drew to Fister and Sale to EROD with Wright getting day 4. Limit the innings in the 1st half. Keep our arms strong. Win games stay healthy stay fresh. At last don’t wait to make a move. If Devers is cemented at 3B and a big bat is signed for 4 years at 1B don’t save Travis Longhi Delbec and Chavis. Trade them when they can add the pieces you need. Decide if Ball or Owen’s can start. If not transition to the pen for second half. Both r getting closer and closer to passing 25. Move Johnson, Brentz and anyone who is aging out Brentz has power but no place to play in Boston. Go get a young thumper or flame thrower in his stead. Is Blake a valued piece of the future or should he be moved. Why let them sit, increase value and rot. After 2015 Blake stock was high. Vaz was going to catch so why hold onto Blake. Can’t second guess these choices. If you choose Vaz than move Blake. If you sign a 1B move Sam. If Owen’s is in AA again move him. Stop the I wonder if. Game.
Bills Beane is old news now. They need the Ivy League grads coming up with the all-new algorithms and formulas. Everybody knows Beane’s playbook now; we saw the movie!
You mean get young players taking PEDs. That is the real reason for Beane’d success
What exact success has he had in modern baseball?
And they finished in last place, Again! Gimmick
Yes Sun…beane is an OLD playbook, however he is the perfectly logical choice for Trader Dave who loves OLD guys.
Don’t be surprise with Miggy at 1B….
Big market team like Boston no have time for that s….( Billy Beane)is good for poor team!! Trade Bradley for Ozuna and then sing Santana!! You have a f… line-upp
Those ESL classes are paying off…
Which Santana song are we singing? I prefer Smooth, with the guy from Matchbox 20.
Still be chasing the Yankees!
Beane is 55 years old and has done nothing to warrant anyone’s admiration.
To put Thornburg and Smith into the useless category is extremely premature.
Is Gordon Heywood if the Celtics now useless because he got hurt?
Limit the innings of starters in the first half of the season?
Who makes up the suddenly available innings?
Bullpen. Then you have a overused/burned out bullpen.
Enjoy your enthusiasm for change but there is a need for a well thought out plan/fix that will solve the issues they have not create more.
I doubt Ellsbury has any real value at all. Maybe a bad contract swap. Here are 3 possible proposals.
1. Jocaby Ellsbury for Jordan Zimmerman and a B level Prospect
Just in case CC or Tanaka Leaves Zimmermann can slide right into the number 5 starter. Yankees don’t really need an extra outfielder and could actually use Zimmermann
2. Jacoby Ellsbury For Albert Pujols, Cash and B Level Prospect
Professional DH and could use a change of scenery. Could platoon with bird or serve as a Legit everyday DH.
3. Jacoby Ellsbury, Chance Adams, Greg Birg and Adam Warren for Joey Votto and Cash
Votto will make the Yankees WS favorites. Most discipline hitter in the entire game
1. Makes sense, thought of it myself.
2. Horrible trade, we don’t need Pujols and his much worser contract. He is not a “change of scenery candidate”, he’s past his prime.
3. Also horrible for us. Votto is 34 and on the brink of being past his prime. We’re not giving up good young players for him.
I don’t know if he’d cut hair, but what about Ellsbury, cash, and a prospect for Samardzija?
Zimmerman is worth more than trashberry.
Reds wouldnt trade votto at all.
Only trade i could see completing is pujols, amd we know why
They probably will be World Series favorites. Wow those trade Ideas are something of a….
Reds would never let Votto go for that. He has one of the best bats in baseball.
Why would the Tigers take on basically the same contract for a just-as-useless player plus give up prospects? Makes no sense to me
Ellsbury would be more valuable to the Yankees than Pujols would
That offer isnt even close for Votto
Only a metsfan would create such ridiculous ideas. Perhaps being fixated on Flushing Follies, the decades old soap opera has taken your eyes off of what has happened over the past 14 months.
The Yankees don’t need any old baggage. They are young and well equipped with a farm that can and will deliver more.
a) Ellsbury isn’t worth his contract.but neither is Zimmerman. However, I can point to more positives in Ells than Zim. Ells still has a decent walk rate @ 10%, had a solid OBP (.348), is still an elite SB threat in terms of his SB%. (88% on 22 of 25) and has a passable glove in the OF.
From a pool of AL hitters with at least 800 AB.(94 players)
Ells was 8th overall in total SB, 38th overall in BB%, 52nd in WAR, 43rd in OBP, 10th HIGHEST Def WAR among AL OF with 800 AB (32 OFers) and 9th overall in BsR (Base running above replacement player).
He is signed to a HORRIBLE contract. Overpaid. But relative to the field of players with 800 AB over the last 2 seasons he ranks better than half the players that qualify and in terms of speed and defense he’s still amount the top 20 players.
b) From a pool of AL pitchers with at least 250 IP since 2016 (39 players):
Zim was 31 of 39 in WS, 35 of 39 in FIP, 37 of 39 in K/9, 35 of 39 in fewest IP, 34 of 39 in lowest GB%, 32 of 39 in most HRS/9 IP and while his FB velocity was up a tick from 2016 it’s still the 2nd lowest of his career and had been declining every year from 2013-2016. There are no positives to what he does. He’s not even an adequate innings eater, which is not a HUGE deal since the Yanks deep bullpen can shorten a game for a SP but still, in 29 starts he pitched past 6.2 IP exactly 4 times in 2016. He wears a bullpen out. He has zero redeeming qualities about himself. He’s among the worst in just about every category.
c) Votto is an absolute beast. However, he’s 34 yo, is owed $150 mil til his age 40 season. It’s been well publicized that the Yanks want to reduce salary somewhat, or at least re-purpose it to younger internal players or younger impending FA’s. We’ve seen how well some sluggers age in that 36-40 age range (see Tex, Giambi, Arod).
d) Yanks don’t need Votto to be “instant WS contenders”. They are 1 win away from doing that now and they did so with a young player in Bird who seems to be coming into his own and vets in Headley and Frazier who I think they will make efforts to bringing back to rotate between 3b, 1b and DH next year.
e) As for pitching, the Yanks are not in need of 5th starter owed $75 mil. Right now they have spots secured by Severino, Gray and Montgomery. Despite his incredible pitching I don’t think Tanaka can get more than 3/$67 mil in the open market. He might be able to get more years and less per year (5/$80) but that seems unlikely. I think he will stay and lock up a 4th rotation spot. (not as the 4th starter but just a 4th “spot”). The 5th spot can be filled by bringing back Sabathia or giving Chance Adams, Domingo Acevedo, Domingo German, etc a shot in spring training. My guess is they bring back or call up CC or Adams. If not they go high end and go after someone like Darvish or Arietta.
Point is, they are better off keeping Ells as an expensive 4th OF than trading for Zim to be a 5th starter.. They are also better off NOT trading for Votto and allowing Bird to progress and retain Adams who can be a solid mid-rotation or better pitcher and a great versatile arm in Warren. They are all also very cheap options which can allow them to splurge elsewhere..
A trade that might make sense is..
Shin-Soo-Ch00 plus a prospect or two @ A ball (high ceiling but raw or inconsistent) for Ellsbury, David Robertson, and some package of mlb ready but blocked prospects like Cave, Ford, Estrada, Austin, etc. Maybe they even look for a higher end prospect from the Rangers and add Miguel Andujar to the mix if the plan is to move Castro to 3b or move Torres to 3rd. The particulars can be worked out but Choo can be a high walk/power lefty who slides into the DH role. Ellsbury can man LF as Gomez walks as a Boras FA, Robertson would instantly add stability to one of mlb’s worst bullpens and you get a couple of young guys who are performing at AAA but blocked by Didi, Castro, Bird and a crowded OF.
PS-Not saying that Austin, Mike Ford, Jake Cave or Estrada are superstars in the making but the Yanks have a better history of producing solid mlb players who WEREN’T top 100 prospects (Cano, Gardner, Austin Jackson, Dave Robertson, Melancon, etc) than the ones that were top 100 ranked guys (Hughes, IPK, Montero, Banuelos, etc).
I mention Andujar because I think the Yanks might dangle him in a trade as they have Headley for 1 more season, I think they’ll try and bring back Frazier and might ultimately move Castro or Gleyber Torres to 3rd base. Andujar can learn under Beltre and be groomed as his replacement. Andujar was a combined .315/.352/.498 with 36 dbkls and 16 hrs between AA and AAA last year. I think the Yanks would’ve given him the 3b job last year when Headley was struggling but felt Andujar needed to polish his defense a bit and instead acquired Frazier,
I’m hoping Marlins trade Ozuna for Andujar and Clint Frazier. Those guys are the real deal.
If Ozuna were under contract for more than two years and NOT a Boras client then I think they might consider it. However, they have a pretty full OF already with Judge, Hicks and Gardner with Ells as the $20 mil 4th OFer.
They will be favorites next year but not giving away that much for Votto? Insane and would never happen.
How about Ellsbury and a decent pitching prospect to KC for Ian Kennedy, Brandon Moss (for salary purposes only), and a lottery ticket, with enough additional cash from NYY to KC to make it an even-money swap?
Kennedy is owed three years $49MM. Ellsbury $68.43MM.
Interesting. I thought of trading him for Jordan Zimmerman before but not Ian Kennedy.
Good find. Kennedy, 32, was 5-13 in 30GS, with a 5.38 ERA. 5.61 FIP, 5.25 xFIP, 154.0IP, 61BB, 131K and 1.32 Whip in 2017.
He can opt out of the remaining $49MM, which he won’t do.
fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6986&posit…
IPK shouldn’t require a decent prospect at all. He’s one of the worst pitchers in baseball and would be a #5 for the Yanks. Why trade a good prospect for a #5 starter? You can swap contract and send $$$$ to make it even but that should be it.
Bundle Ells with Betances.
i would trade Ells to Seattle or Anaheim, eat about half the $, which clears 10M annually for the luxury reset, deal Betances & Warren to a team desperate for BP help like Colorado, freeing up another 8-10M, go after Otani in free agency & resign CC IF Tanaka opts out for veteran presence. If Tanaka stays, there’s your vet, in a sense. Hopefully squeeze Toddfather under the cap as well.
Samardzija for ellsbury and a few so so prospects.
I wouldn’t give away Ellsbury–not because he’s so terrific, but because of the specifics of the Yankee’s situation.. First of all,Hicks was a sub -replacement level player in 2016 and had 361 PA this year. He’s never had more than 390. We really don’t know what his true level is. Second, Ellsbury can still play. He’s not an outstanding player but he’s still adequate.–1.7 bWAR in 356 PA. If you could dump the overwhelming percentage of the dollars, and by doing so, help get under the luxury tax, then sure, you do it. But sending $40M+ and then spending more for a 4th outfielder, I don’t know if that really works.
That’s 1.7 bWAR. Not -1.7
Sox first step Cora.
Chavis may have more legit power than Devers and probably a slightly better glove.
Devers I would make sure has a 1 B glove for Winter baseball. When he fills out he may be the corner infielder on the Right side with Chavis the left side.
Keep Chris Davis in mind for a swap: JBJ, Swihart and Barnes plus a pitching prospect, or some combo especially if they don’t trade for Stanton.
Good luck to the Yankees to finish off the Stro’s. The pressure is looming with the Yanks back end of the pen on the Astros bats. Girardi has done a great job managing this post season.
From a die hard RS fan.
As a Yanks fan thanks…
I wouldn’t want the team I root for to trade for Stanton..too much salary tied up and how confident can you be he stays healthy.
I’ve said it before and got blindsided Devers looks like a LH hitting Franco..maybe I’m wrong.
Which Davis do you refer?
I would hire Alex Cora. He is a bright guy who speaks Spanish & incorporates sabermetrics. He has the tools to be one of the next great young managers.
Can’t believe the Baby Bombers have all but guaranteed an AL pennant from being down 0-2.
Hey Joel Sherman Girardi made that announcement about Hicks being his CF way earlier in the regular season. Tomorrow’s revelation by Joel Sherman is the Yankees have a high probability to have World Series tickets available.
Considering they have 3 legit options for CF, a little clarity that isnt months outdated is nice
Please explain?
Should of asked this way. Who would those be?
Just as I thought you haven’t a clue…
Regardless of who ends up as the next Red Sox manager, lets hope that DD is working the phones as we speak to find solutions to Red Sox roster problems in the OF, 1B, 2B and the back end of the rotation. As a club the team needs to raise it collective BA by at least 18-20 points, continue to improve team defense and stabilize starting pitching for the long run of a 162 game schedule.
There are too many injuries, some of which are not made known until the regular season is completed. Players taking the field, injured, as a team practice, has to stop. Fans don’t pay to see players perform at 60%-70%-80% capacity. Pedroia is an example as is Moreland, Nunez and Ramirez. Farrell allowed this to go on to “save” face and to protect veteran’s from being challenged by younger players for their position on the field. Fans deserve better. from the Red Sox next manager.
Pedroia needs to play some more DH and they definitely need to improve their offense.
I think the Red Sox will be dangerous next year assuming that the team bounces back. Price needs to be the guy he’s paid to be and Porcello needs to re-discover the magic he had when he won the Cy Young award. They’d be wise to hire Alex Cora over Gardy and Ausmus and trade for a bat like Ozuna or Stanton (even though i’d hate to see him go as a Marlins fan) and strengthen their bullpen a bit.
I think Cashman tries to move Ellsbury, Headley, Gardner, Betances, and Warren to continue to get younger. Additions for the Yanks could be Ohtani, and Jake McGee. Young players like Frazier Andujar, Torres, and Adams will get their chance sometime during the season. Cashman is in a good spot with a lot of money coming off the books, and a team that is getting younger and inexpensive. First priority will be to get under the cap. This team will be good even if they did next to nothing this winter.
You say the Yankees are getting younger yet you want to add a FA pitcher that will be 32. Gardner isn’t going anywhere(like you’ve suggested numerous times on Nats,Giants,and other articles)and Frazier doesn’t offer the same value. What teams would want Headley or Ellsbury? Why would they weaken their pen by trading Warren? Betances is a question mark…
Betances and Warren are only 29. Their age really isn’t an issue. Factor in their relatively below market cost and productivity they shouldn’t be moved for age or salary reasons. I do think the Yanks will try and work in 1 or 2 young players next season but I think they should keep a couple of veterans to help the kids.
I would love for them to bring back CC as a 5th starter on a 1 or 2 year deal around $10 mil per. Also, a rotation of Headley, Frazier, Bird and Andujar to play 1b, 3b and DH would be interesting. Andujar might be the odd man out as Bird and Frazier make the most sense to start 1B and 3B. Headley would be an insurance policy as Bird tends to be a little fragile.
The link you provided to Vladimir Guerrero Jr, leads to his father’s page, not the son’s.
Otherwise, great work as always Jeff.
Why would the Yankees trade away Jacoby Ellsbury? They would have to eat much of his salary or deal him for another over sized contract . In the mean time, DH/LF Matt Holliday will be gone after this season then LF/CF Brett Gardner after next. Aaron Hicks isn’t a proven starter nor is Clint Frazier.
The Reds won’t take Ellsbury for Joey Votto; neither the Mariners nor the Angels are in need of an aging OF. The Tigers won’t take Ellsbury for Jordan Zimmermann but; they might consider him for Miguel Cabrera. However, I don’t see the Yankees wanting Cabrera that badly. The tigers won’t pay down anymore salary since Victor Martinez, Prince Fielder and Justin Verlander are already being paid for not playing for them…
Yanks wouldn’t have to eat any money with White Sox. They have only 40M committed to next year. Sox could absorb Ellsbury’s entire salary for the right prospect.