With Jimmy Nelson set to miss a portion of the 2018 season following shoulder surgery, the Brewers are eyeing top-end rotation upgrades and showing some early interest in Jake Arrieta, tweets MLB.com’s Jon Morosi.
Arrieta, 32 March, is a familiar commodity for the Brewers, who have watched him star for the Cubs for nearly four full seasons. While Milwaukee doesn’t typically play at the top of the free-agent market, we explained here at MLBTR recently that the Brewers are in an uncharacteristically strong position to spend given their lack of long-term payroll commitments and given that some more traditionally big-spending teams aren’t likely to pursue top-line starters.
The Brewers have just north of $32MM committed to the 2018 payroll, plus another $22.7MM in arbitration projections, per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. They have similar commitments (in terms of guaranteed multi-year deals) lined up for the 2019 season, and the 2020 books have only Ryan Braun‘s $16MM salary guaranteed. Milwaukee, then, could easily afford to add a hefty multi-year contract, even if meant committing upwards of $25MM annually.
[Related: Milwaukee Brewers payroll outlook & depth chart]
Beyond the sheer financial plausibility, there’s a clear need in the Milwaukee rotation. Nelson broke out as the team’s top starter this season but will miss a fairly significant chunk of the 2018 season, per the Brewers, though the team won’t estimate precisely how long he’ll be out just yet. Beyond him, the recently extended Chase Anderson and fellow righty Zach Davies are the only two rotation locks. Brent Suter, Brandon Woodruff, Josh Hader and Junior Guerra are among the team’s top internal candidates to fill out the rotation while Nelson mends.
Milwaukee’s rebuild accelerated considerably in 2017 as Nelson, Anderson, Davies, Travis Shaw and Domingo Santana all put together breakout years while top prospects Hader, Woodruff and Lewis Brinson all proved to be on the cusp of MLB readiness. Orlando Arcia took hold of the team’s shortstop job (though there’s still room for improvement), while Eric Thames enjoyed a productive overall year in his first season back in the big leagues after an excellent run in the Korea Baseball Organization.
All of those positive signs now have the Brewers in position to vie for an NL Central title next season, which should prompt the front office to be more willing to spend than it has been in recent years. We’ve not yet seen a David Stearns-led front office play the role of an aggressive offseason shopper on either the free-agent or trade market thus far, but it seems reasonable to expect that the Brewers will make a number of win-now moves this offseason. On our annual top 50 free agent projections, MLBTR predicted that Arrieta would land in Milwaukee.
Arrieta did reject a $17.4MM qualifying offer from the Cubs, meaning he’d cost the Brewers their third-highest selection in next year’s draft. As of last week, we know that to be the team’s Competitive Balance Round B pick — No. 74 overall. The Cubs, meanwhile, would receive a compensatory pick after Comp Round B, assuming Arrieta signs a deal for more than $50MM guaranteed (which seems like a foregone conclusion).
Nooooooooooo. Also, no.
My thoughts exactly
That would be awful if it did.
He’d be a good investment at the right price point. I’d offer him 3 years and 65 million with a vesting 4th year option for 25 million given he pitches at least 170 innings two of the three years.
That ain’t gonna do it. Boras will have him hold out until after Xmas waiting for a 5/6 year deal before he ever considers a 3/4 year deal. And if that’s the case he’s getting $100 mil over 4 years.
I can see 4/100m deal from someone
Not a chance he signs for that.
He can get 3/65M from just about any team. In fact if he would take that he would sign with the Cubs. No chance he signs with that with the Brewers or anyone else
He culd proly get 2/65 from any team.. But alas players want the years. Which is entirely understandable.
Take him! Overspend! 4+ years! Do it!
Can’t believe what Teams are paying for pitching. He’s pitched 200 innings once in his career and someone’s gonna pay him a boatload of money for his decline! SMH
No one pitches 200 innings really anymore
And I get slapped for saying teams ought to get more serious about developing their own.
Any chance we can sign him to a front loaded contract? 4 year, 80 million with 35 million in 2018 and remaining 3 years at 15 million each. We have payroll flexibility before the core becomes more expensive.
That’s a great idea! MIL has the rare luxury of actually being able to frontload a contract. Quite an incentive for a 4-year deal.
Not a bad idea, I just don’t see him accepting anything less than $100 million over 4 years.
Perhaps $40 million for year one, $25 m for the 2nd season then $17.5/year over the remaining 2.
An even further intriguing idea – 4 years at 100 MM. 98.5 million in the first year, and then the league minimum for the remaining three lmao
The tax bill on that would suck lmao
The BrewCrew are a young and upcoming team. They surprised many last year but this year seem intent on raising payroll and competing at a higher level. This should scare the Cardinals and Pirates way more then the Cubs…
You might want to look at how he “scared” the Bucs this year.
Cubs fan here hoping this happens.
I’ll second that as a cub fan. All those in favor….
Whoever signs him will be wishing they never had.
Agreed
Yeah, my gut tells me Arrieta will have a fairly solid 2018, but that contract seems destined to albatross status from ‘19 on. As a GM I just couldn’t pull the trigger ESPECIALLY since he’s a Boras client which practically guarantees buyer’s remorse.
He was almost unhittable last year, what happened?
Just look at his fangraphs page. There’s a big jump in his hr/9 rate.
His peripherals say he’s essentially an average pitcher.
His good numbers in the second half were partly thanks to a .246 BABIP and 84% LOB..
Also note that he lost over 2 miles of velocity this past year.
He was unhittable in 2015 his cy young season and career year. That was two years ago not last year
If a pitcher is one of the top two available starters in a free agent class, stop with the “4-year” theoretical contract. That’s just not going to happen. He’s getting a five or six year deal.
He is not getting six years. He might get five but its not out of the realm of possibility he winds up with a 4 year deal on a higher Yearly salary
Highly doubt the interest is mutual. Arrieta wants to win now. He’ll stay with the cubs or go to Houston or the rangers.
He’s not returning, unless somehow, someway he’s unsigned in late January.
I don’t expected him to return they’ll a sleeper team moat likely. I expect him to go home to Texas. It’s a toss up of the Astros and Rangers.
He’s from Farmington, MO.
But lives in Austin, Texas now.
You just contradicted your original post…lofl
is that “lolling on the floor laughing”?
He was born in Missouri
So go loll somewhere else .
Born there. He went to TCU. which is Texas if you haven’t figured that put already.
@BruceWayne
So he was born in Missouri so what? He lives in Texas and went to TCU we all know that. Big deal. Thanks for your wisdom
IF Houston is in play they will not offer more than three years.
if he wants to win he sighs go to the Brewers great young core that he could put over the top
They got lucky. No chase they hold up again.
You do realize that if Knebel had closed for them all year the Cubs would’ve been looking up at them at the end. You’re the same bozo who said that Anderson had a fluke year when he in actuality he had strung together a strong end of 2016 all through 2017.
I think Lesters deal of 5 years for $160 is the baseline.
Lester may have been 1 year younger.
But MILW or Philly make sense
they have cash & want to take next step
Texas as well.
He has no chance to win with the brewers. They’ll be at the bottom of the barrel next year.
Thank you great Mistico. Please tell me the lottery results for the week of June 22, 2019.
So a team that was 1 game out of the wildcard game that will now have a consistent closer all year and likely better added starting pitching has no chance? Did you realize that the Houston Astros won the world series this year? Take a look at their record last year. Guess what: Its possible for teams that YOU don’t like to get better! You learned a lot today maybe get some rest now ok champ?
So true. Brewers were lucky last year. A few people had big years.. doubt they do it again. Even if they do, they still won’t make the post season. Cubs will win 98+ games!
Outside of Chase Anderson the Brewers really had nobody that was lucky last year. In fact they had a number of players who had their worst seasons in recent history. I still don’t want them to sign Arrieta though, just not a good landing spot with questionable defense and a hitters park.
I get why they would do it though, the Pirates window is closing, the Cubs traded away their future just to make the playoffs last season and the Cardinals are just not the franchise they used to be. The Central is wide open for the taking.
You have to be a Cubs fan. Or an idiot. But most likely both.
one of those things normally implies the other.
Lester was 6/155
Anyone else getting a Matt Garza feeling here?
Exactly what I was thinking. Only probably more expensive.
Arrieta is another bad Boras contract waiting to happen. Deep regret awaits the team who overpays him for 5 years. Just ask the Cubs front office how they REALLY feel about Heyward’s contract.
Apparently Epstein saw something in Heyward the rest of the baseball world didn’t. There are pitchers who swing a bat better than Heyward… worst hitting OF I have EVER seen (for an everyday player).
Theo saw the missing good luck puzzle piece to end a century old drought……
@ChiSoxCity
And Theo saw the best defensive RF in baseball. You forgot to mention that…. oh and the world series championship he helped us win
I would be fine with a two year deal but those third years always come back and bite the Brewers. Kyle Lohse being the most recent example.
or suppan…lohse…wolf…
Jeff suppan
This would be the worst possible move the Brewers could make
That’s why it is so wonderful.
PLEASE do it Brew Crew. Just so the Cardinals DO NOT.
I understand they need pitching but paying a guy like Jake big big money is a mistake. He wasn’t that great last year in all honesty and his peak years may actually be over. I hope they spend their money better then this.
I doubt it.
Stearns is probably letting this leak out so that other teams (Cubs? Cardinals?) feel more pressured to spend in order to stay ahead of the Brewers.
Stearns is brilliant at finding bargains . . . so good that I just can’t imagine that he would risk spending so much on one player when he really doesn’t have to.
It’s probably Boras leaking it out so the Cubs and other big market teams will spend more to show they won’t lose a bidding war to the smallest market in baseball.
Especially for a 32 year arm.
He will be after bare minimum 25MM per especially at only 4 years term.
4yr 110M might get it:
35-30-25-20?
Or maybe something like 5 year 120M with an opt out after 2:
30-30-opt-20-20-20
Just my thoughts.
I say no to Arrietta as a Brewer fan. I think a better player is Alex Cobb and would be cheaper. I know Cobb has expressed interest in the Cubs since he once played for their manager. However, I would bring him into Milwaukee, make him an offer, and then tell him that he has to except the offer on the spot or it is pulled off the table. Don’t allow him to call the Cubs to see what they will offer in response to the Brewer offer. Don’t allow him to use Miwaukee to get a better deal or the same deal from another team.