The deadline for teams to issue qualifying offers is on Monday at 5pm EST. Between now and then, we’ll likely hear some chatter about players that likely will or will not receive the QO. It’s valued at $17.4MM this year. Those who need to brush up on the new rules should read this primer.
While quite a few situations are obvious (in either direction), it’s worth bearing in mind that there have been surprises in the past. The Rockies dropped a QO on Michael Cuddyer in 2014, for example, while the Nationals decided against giving one to Edwin Jackson back in the QO’s first year of operation (2012), only to see him sign a four-year deal with the Cubs.
Here’s the latest chatter from around the game:
- The Royals, unsurprisingly, will issue qualifying offers to each of their three major free agents, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, and Lorenzo Cain each feature prominently on MLBTR’s ranking of the top 50 free agents — indeed, all are rated among the seven most valuable players on the open market — so it’s hardly surprising to learn that K.C. is going in this direction. That said, there had been at least some suggestion that the team had yet to decide on Cain, who is a fair bit older than the other two departing core members of the Royals’ memorable 2014-15 teams. He still figures to be in high demand as the best-available center field on the upcoming market. All told, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where any of these three players accepts the qualifying offer, meaning that the Royals ought to be lined up for a nice haul of draft picks once the dust settles. (Of course, it’s also still possible that one or even more than one of these players will return to Kansas City, in which case no draft compensation would be triggered for that player.)
Lorenzo Cain should take the offer. He will continue to hit 300 for another couple of seasons, and none of the multiple year contracts he’ll be offered will have anything close to the qualifying offer amount during the front end contract years. Also, when he’s playing on the shell of a World Series team that has been covered in moss and vine growth in a very short amount of time, he will really shine as the most valuable option from the team after his one year deal is done and Moustakas and Hosmer are both gone. Don’t even get me started on WAR
Talk about WAR.
If he accepts the QO, he goes from the second best OF option, (and best CF) to enter a FA class where he may not even be in the top 10 bats available. And do so a year older.
This will be the best chance at a substantial long term contract.
This
^^
Also why would he take 1 year 18m when he can get at minimum 3/45 when you correctly point out the clock is ticking on his productivity. If he turns it down and doesn’t like the market, the door in KC will always be open. No risk.
WAR! What is it good for? Absolutely nothing!
And what happens if he accepts the QO and becomes Alex Gordon 2.0? Or worse, suffers a major injury to a knee sapping his speed?? 33 year old center fielders have a tendency to go downhill fast when they start to decline..
Imagine if Chen, Zimmerman, or Davis had accepted their QO’s.. Davis had a decent follow up season after signing his big contract but he would not have come close to $150 million after it.. Zimmerman and Chen fell off a cliff..
He will reject it without hesitation (and rightfully so) and sign a contract somewhere for an AAV just a bit shy of the QO.. Something similar to Dexter Fowler with one less year..
exactly
I think Cain is a perfect fit for the Mets they won’t pay him though
Hosmer to the Red Sox
Moustakas to the Angels
Can’t see Angels signing another big contract bat. I think they go complimentary pieces in the IF (Nunez, Duda, etc) and a pitcher or two.
Moustakas to the Braves.
Braves will not shell out big $$$ to a lifetime .251 BA & .305 OBP% hitter
Can’t use Moose’s lifetime numbers he’s been a totally different hitter the last three years.
Not a chance for the Braves with Riley tearing up AFL.
Is there any reason for Riley to not move to corner OF? It’s not like he offers Arrenado defense.
Actually many reports are that Riley has drastically improved his defense. BA had him as the best defensive infielder in the whole Braves organization recently. The talk now (surprisingly) is that Riley is far too good a thirdbaseman to waste in the outfield.
I agree that the Braves shouldn’t shell out big money for Moustakas (it’s not like they’re one move away yet, and $80-90M for him is much higher than I think any team should be willing to go on him), but Riley’s no sure thing. His stock’s up from where it was a few months ago, and there’s a chance he’s an everyday player, but I think most scouts (so far as I can tell) still aren’t sure if he’ll hit against high-level pitching, so I wouldn’t let him get in the way of an external option. It just shouldn’t be Moustakas
Hope the Braves bring Phillips back to bridge the gap to Riley. Sign Addison Reed & Jake McGee. Trade for Archer.
I’ll agree that Phillips on a one year contract could be a very good pickup IF he’ll understand that it is with thirdbase in mind (some accounts said he only begrudgingly played there while biding time for a trade).
I could see the Braves signing one of either Reed or McGee, but not both. But in absolutely no way do I want them to pursue Archer. The cost (prospect wise) would be incredibly high and most likely not be worth it in the long run.
Hmm, I think I’d wait a year on Archer. That deal would cost 3 talented young players/prospects (not Acuna, but probably Gohara, Swanson and a real third piece). Not sure I see the Braves as ready to compete this year, so I think they should wait until 2019 to swing a deal for a pitcher (Archer or somebody else), assuming Albies and Acuna progress as they should next year
Cain takes the qualifying offer. Kansas City signs Moustakas for 5 years. Hosmer to the Cardinals.
Cain won’t take the offer. To do so would cost him significantly as next year he is a year older and not even in the top 10-15 of free agents. He will take a deal that is probably around 4 years.
Not a chance Cain takes the QO
I agree. No chance. At his age, he wants to score one more multi year contract.
I agree with you mostly, I think the Cardinals will not be willing to get in a bidding war for Hosmer…..
They’ll be willing to get into a bidding war, they just won’t win the bidding war.
Who’s the 2nd best FA CF? John Jay? Cain needs to bypass any thought of accepting a QO and focus on landing a 4 year deal with a team that has a clear need. He’d regret taking that QO.
The Cardinals should go ahead and give a qualifying offer for Lynn. Even if he accepts it, the Cards wouldn’t mind having him back for one more year at $17.4M.
Moose to the Angels… that will solve the 3rd base revolving door…