Teams have until 5pm ET tonight to issue one-year, $17.4MM qualifying offers to their impending free agents if they wish to recoup draft pick compensation in the event that their free agent(s) depart and sign elsewhere. Those unfamiliar with the process can refer back to a lengthy exploration of the QO system (penned by MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk), which was revamped last winter in the 2017-21 collective bargaining agreement.
For those looking for a Cliff’s Notes-esque refresher, here’s the QO system in a few sentences. MLB teams can issue a one-year offer worth the mean salary of the league’s 125 highest-paid players to an impending free agent in order to receive compensation in the next year’s draft. A player can receive a qualifying offer only once in his career and is eligible to receive a QO if and only if he spent the entire season with his club. Players that accept a QO are considered signed and cannot be traded until June 15 of the upcoming season. Players have 10 days to decide whether to accept or reject.
The new CBA places the standard compensatory pick after Competitive Balance Round B — meaning it should fall somewhere between picks 70 to 80. Elements like revenue sharing, luxury tax penalization and size of the player’s new contract can all impact the placement of the comp pick, however. Teams that sign a player who rejected a QO will be required to forfeit at least one pick in the next year’s draft. Each team’s top pick is protected, but the placement of forfeited pick(s) is dependent on the luxury tax and revenue sharing. International pool money may also need to be forfeited. (Again, I’d highly recommend checking out Mark’s piece, in full, for more details.)
Here are today’s rumors…
- MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian calls it a “safe bet” that the Indians will issue a qualifying offer to first baseman Carlos Santana (Twitter link). The 31-year-old switch-hitter batted .259/.363/.455 with 23 home runs and career-best work at first base in 2017. While the market for corner bats hasn’t been great in recent years, Santana’s defensive improvements, power and longstanding reputation as one of baseball’s most patient hitters (career 15.2 percent walk rate) should serve him well on the open market even with draft-pick compensation attached to his name.
Earlier Updates
- Reds shortstop Zack Cozart is still unlikely to receive a qualifying offer, per FanRag’s Jon Heyman (Twitter links). That’s been the direction in which Cincinnati has reportedly been leaning for the past couple of weeks, though MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon hears that the Reds are still debating the QO for Cozart. Despite the Reds’ rebuilding status, it still seems surprising that they could let him walk for no compensation. Cozart had a breakout .297/.385/.548 season at the plate in 2017 and even in the two years prior was a roughly league-average bat with well-above average defense at shortstop. He should be able to top $17.4MM by a wide margin in free agency, and even if he accepts, he’d be a bargain at that rate. The Reds do already have $86MM worth of payroll commitments and arbitration projections for next season, but there are other areas (non-tenders, trades) that they could trim from the payroll if need be..
- Some players — Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain, Jake Arrieta, Wade Davis, Greg Holland and Lance Lynn — have long seemed like locks to receive a QO. Alex Cobb, too, has stood out as a logical recipient, though the Rays’ payroll limitations at least cast some doubt on that possibility. Heyman reported last night that Cobb would receive a QO, and it’s been reported by multiple outlets that each member of that Royals trio will receive a QO as well.
Cozart may be the hardest FA to predict a match. I really don’t see any straight SS fits for a new team.
San Diego?
I’d imagine the QO would take the Padres out of the running though.
Article says the Reds aren’t QOing Cozart
I think that’d be smartest. That or he’ll resign with Cincinnati probably.
Shoulda traded Cozart when they had the chance. Another trade (or non-trade in this case) botched by the Reds’ FO.
There was no interest. There was hardly any middle infielders traded this deadline
If I recall correctly Cozart was injured frequently during the “trade deadline period”. That didn’t help his trade value at the time.
Teams were asking about him last offseason. Padres and Mariners to name a few.
Have to agree. I know most pundits feel the Reds need Cozart and vice versa, but this team is rebuilding and don’t need to be spending $17M for a year of his services. I think he’d accept the QO without hesitation if it was offered, and the front office should have known that in July/August. They’ll have nothing to show for his departure unless the plan is to bring him back on a less expensive multi-year deal if he’s still unsigned in January. But again, they’re rebuilding and shouldn’t be signing a SS in his 30s to a multi-year deal.
Reds could have signed him to a multiyear deal even if they had traded him. And a 30 y/o shortstop on a rebuilding team could make sense at the right price. Who exactly is there that will price Cozart out of the Reds’ range?
I’d like to know which trade(s) you would consider “botched.” The only one that comes to mind is Chapman. All the other trades they have made during rebuilding have been good
Every one except Latos, Simon and Straily.
Duvall for Leake is looking pretty good.
They could have gotten Duvall for Leake in the prior offseason and probably with a better secondary piece. If the Giants were willing to make that trade for two months of Leake and no QO, they would have done it for a full season of Leake and a QO. His trade value went down between the offseason and the deadline by virtue of him having 1/3 the amount of control and the acquiring team losing the right to QO him.
*Frazier*
I don’t see a lot of sense giving Cozart a QO unless the Reds want him back.
Exactly
Sign him to a two or three year deal if they want him back. It’ll be a lower AAV than the QO.
If I were the reds I’d issue the QO, and hope cozart declines it so they get another pick.
That’s the thing, there would be no way he’d decline it.
Oh well. If he accepts it then trade him at the deadline for whatever you can get. Worst case scenario you keep someone the fans love and have to spend a little more money. Cincinnati isn’t trying to contend so it’s not as if they need every penny right now
They have to redo this qualifying offer thing, 17 million is way to high. And then players get the QO that shouldn’t be getting it.
It’s on the team to offer the QO. Don’t see the need to give someone one if he’s not worth it. They should have traded him last year and got at least something back.
I think the point of the reworked QO was to make it so high that it’d be rarer: players were unhappy that decent, but not great FA’s were not getting signed properly because of the QO rules (e.g. ppl like Kendrys Morales not being signed until practically halfway through the next season, b/c of QO compensation, which adversely affected his production and earning power later.) Personally, I think the current setup, for all the imperfections, is better than some of the problems in the past.
Coazart is one of the most interesting stories to follow this offseason. He could end up being a big bargain for someone
San Diego bound
San Francisco
Why? So he can sit on the bench behind Brandon Crawford?
Pirates should sign Cozart. The 7 million Mercer will make is far less productive than Cozart