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2018-19 International Prospects

Yankees Notes: Rodriguez, Outfielder, Rotation

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The Yankees have utilized some of their newly found international funds (acquired in trades with the Cardinals and with the White Sox) to sign Cuban right-hander Osiel Rodriguez, as Jorge Ebro of El Nuevo Herald tweets. Rodriguez, the No. 5 international prospect on Baseball America’s rankings and No. 9 on MLB.com’s list, received a $600K signing bonus. MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez first suggested (via Twitter) that the match was likely, adding that the Yankees are also expected to add a young shortstop by the name of Carlos Verdecia for another $325K. New York added $2.5MM (and first baseman Luke Voit) in trades that sent Chasen Shreve and Giovanny Gallegos to the Cardinals and left-handed pitching prospect Caleb Frare to the ChiSox.

Here’s more out of the Bronx…

  • The Yankees are on the lookout for an additional outfielder with Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez and Clint Frazier all sidelined in the short-term, tweets Fancred’s Jon Heyman. While they’d prefer a right-handed bat in order to replace some of the thump lost by that trio of righties, Heyman adds that former Yankee Curtis Granderson could also be in play as a target. The Blue Jays are known to be marketing the Grandy Man (among several others), who is hitting .233/.334/.419 with 10 homers, 15 doubles and a triple through 253 plate appearances in a part-time role with the Jays. Granderson is earning $5MM this season and is still owed $1.67MM of that sum through the end of the year. Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News tweets that the Yankees have also been scouting catchers with Sanchez on the shelf.
  • In a full column, Ackert writes that the Yankees are still scouting rotation help even after acquiring J.A. Happ. The Yankees have been scouting Mets righty Zack Wheeler in recent weeks, she notes, and they’ve recently been in touch with the Rays on Chris Archer as well. Luis Severino has struggled over his past four outings, and while the Yankees obviously aren’t planning on replacing him in the rotation, his rough patch could create a desire to further deepen the starting mix. Separately, Heyman lists the Yankees as one of four teams to have “shown the most interest” in Wheeler, though it seems that no one has yet come close to meeting the Mets’ price (Twitter link). The New York Post’s Joel Sherman recently dubbed the Yankees a “long shot” on Archer, whose market is reportedly intensifying.

MLB, KBO Reportedly Agree To New Posting System

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Major League Baseball and the Korea Baseball Organization have agreed to a revised version of the posting system that allows players who are not yet free-agent eligible to move from the KBO to MLB, according to a report from South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency. The new agreement runs through Oct. 31, 2021, according to the report.

Under the previous posting system, when a KBO team would post a player for MLB clubs before he reached free agency (which requires nine years in the KBO), they’d inform Major League Baseball of their desire to do so, and all interested teams would submit a blind bid. If the KBO team deemed the bid to be an acceptable number, the highest-bidding MLB team would be granted a 30-day window to negotiate a contract. If the bid was not accepted or agreement on a contract could not be reached, the player returned his KBO team. The MLB team was refunded the amount of its bid.

The new system, however, looks to largely mirror the recently agreed upon posting system between MLB and Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, which will go into effect this coming offseason. Once a player is posted, he’ll be free to negotiate with all 30 MLB clubs. The release fee paid to the KBO team that posted the player will now correlate to the size of the contract signed. Specifically:

  • If a posted KBO player signs for $25MM or less, the release fee paid to the former KBO team will be 20 percent of the contract’s value.
  • If a posted KBO player signs for more than $25MM and less than $50MM, the release fee paid to the former KBO team will be 20 percent of the first $25MM (i.e. $5MM) plus 17.5 percent of any amount over $25MM.
  • If a posted KBO player signs for more than $50MM, the release fee paid to the former KBO team will be 20 percent of the first $25MM (i.e. $5MM), 17.5 percent of the next $25MM (i.e. $4.375MM), and 15 percent of any amount over $50MM.

As is the case with the posting arrangement between MLB and NPB, the new KBO posting period will run from Nov. 1 through Dec. 5. (Previously, KBO players could be posted at any point from Nov. 1 to March 1.)

It’s worth noting, of course, that the MLB collective bargaining agreement’s distinctions between amateur and professional players must still be considered. Per the CBA, a player must be at least 25 years of age and have at least six years of experience in a foreign professional league to be considered a professional player. If he meets both criteria, that player is free to sign a Major League deal for any amount and for length of time. If, however, the player is under 25 years of age or has fewer than six years of pro experience in another country, he’ll be limited to signing a minor league contract with a bonus that is taken from his new MLB team’s league-allotted international bonus pool.

Given the fact that most players from the KBO aren’t posted until they’ve spent seven or eight years playing professionally — i.e., when their teams are only a year or two from potentially losing them to free agency — it’s not likely that many players who are considered international amateurs will become available to MLB teams via this revised posting system.

Reds Acquire Lorenzo Cedrola From Red Sox For International Bonus Pool Space

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The Red Sox have traded minor league outfielder Lorenzo Cedrola to the Reds in exchange for international bonus pool space, both teams announced. Neither announcement revealed the size of the pool allotment changing hands, though international bonus allotments must be traded in increments of $250K.

For the Reds, it’s not a surprise to see them trading away some pool space. The Cincinnati organization is still in the maximum penalty bracket from the previous collective bargaining agreement, meaning they can’t sign any single international amateur for a bonus of greater than $300K. Boston is under no such exemption and will use the additional funds to bolster their haul on the 2018-19 international signing market, which opened today and will run through June 15, 2019.

Cedrola, 20, signed with the Red Sox in February 2015 out of Venezuela and has since risen to the Class-A South Atlantic League, where he’s currently repeating the level. He’s hitting .318/.350/427 through 229 plate appearances in his second run through that level, and while he hasn’t homered, he’s hit 17 doubles and three triples along the way. Cedrola has minimal power but has swiped 65 bases (in 91 tries) through 262 minor league games.

Baseball America rated Cedrola as the Red Sox’ No. 24 prospect in the 2016-17 offseason, calling him an “excellent athlete and plus runner” while also noting his physical limitations and lack of home run power. Cedrola rarely walks but has strong contact skills — career 4.3 percent walk rate and 11.9 percent strikeout rate — and BA notes that with his speed and average arm, he has the profile of at least a reserve outfielder.

Notable International Prospect Signings

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With the 2018-19 international signing period kicking off today, there will be dozens of six- and seven-figure bonuses handed out to teenage prospects, primarily out of Latin America, filtering in throughout the day today. Many of these have been in the works for quite some time, as is reflected by the fact that most of the top players’ destinations and signing bonuses have been previously reported/projected (and by the fact that the top agreements will all be reported in one swift avalanche today).

We’ll keep track of the notable National League signings here and the notable American League signings in a separate post. Note that you can read up on each of these players with the dedicated international coverage available from Ben Badler of Baseball America (subscription required), Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com and Kiley McDaniel & Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs, each of whom has scouting info on the top echelon of international amateurs. Badler is also tracking the all of the signings from all 30 teams.

Onto some of the more notable signings…

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2018-19 International Signing Period Opens Today

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The 2018-19 international signing period kicks off this morning, meaning that from now until next June 15, teams are officially able to begin signing amateur talents from countries outside of the United States and Canada. Prospects aged 16 and up (assuming they turn 16 by Sept. 1 of the current period) are eligible to sign minor league contracts with teams for signing bonuses that fall within the constraints of a league-allotted bonus pool.

Those looking to brush up on the top prospects this class has to offer will want to look at the invaluable work put into the subject by Ben Badler of Baseball America (subscription required), Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com and Kiley McDaniel & Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs. Badler’s Top 50 ranking has full scouting reports and expected destinations/bonuses for the top free agents in the 2018-19 class, while Sanchez has his own Top 30 with free scouting reports (and likely destinations). McDaniel and Longenhagen have scouting info and projected bonuses/teams on their top 35 prospects.

After all of that — here’s a quick primer on the specifics of the international free agency system.

Unlike the system that was in place from 2012-16, in which teams would routinely shatter their international bonus pools and take two-year signing penalties in exchange for one enormous haul of amateur talent, the system under the 2017-21 collective bargaining agreement contains a hard cap that cannot be exceeded. Teams are still permitted to trade for up to 75 percent of their originally allotted bonus pool, however, and any team is free to trade away as much of its pool as it wishes. International pool allotments must be traded in increments of $250K — unless it includes the last remainder of a team’s pool.

That said, penalties from the previous international signing periods still carry over to the current one. As such, the Athletics, Astros, White Sox, Braves, Cardinals, Nationals, Padres and Reds are all still barred from signing any one player for more than $300K during the current signing period. The Braves, in particular, are facing significant long-term penalties following last November’s punishment for violating international spending guidelines; they’ll be limited to a hard cap of $10K per player in 2019-20 and will be stripped of half their league-allotted bonus pool in the 2020-21 period.

The Competitive Balance lottery that awards 14 teams with additional picks based on market size and total revenue also has an impact in international free agency. The teams that were awarded Competitive Balance picks in Round B (between rounds two and three of the draft) will have the largest bonus pools in 2018-19. Teams that were awarded selections in Competitive Balance Round A (between rounds one and two) will have the second-largest pools.

Beyond that, free agency itself can have an impact. Teams that sign players who have refused a qualifying offer (QO) are subject to forfeitures in their international bonus pool in some instances. Specifically, a club which exceeded the luxury tax threshold in the previous season and also signs a QO free agent surrenders $1MM of its international pool in the following period. Teams that did not exceed the luxury tax but also did not benefit from revenue sharing will forfeit $500K of international pool for each QO free agent signed.

That means that in 2018-19, the Marlins, Athletics*, Rays, Reds*, Brewers and Twins will have the largest base pools — a total of $6,025,400.

The Pirates, Orioles, Padres*, Diamondbacks, Royals, Indians and Rockies all receive bonus pools totaling $5,504,500 for the 2018-19 period.

The Cardinals*, who had a Competitive Balance pick in Round A but also forfeited $500K for signing Greg Holland after he rejected a QO, are the lone team with a pool of $5,004,500.

The Angels, Astros*, Braves*, Blue Jays, Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, Mariners, Mets, Nationals, Rangers, Red Sox, Tigers, White Sox and Yankees are all allotted with the standard bonus pool of $4,983,500.

The Phillies, too, are in their own tier after spending tier after forfeiting $500K for each of Carlos Santana and Jake Arrieta. They’d been allotted the standard bonus pool and, as such, will have a total of $3,983,500 to spend on this year’s class.

* = Team is barred from spending more than $300K on any single signing.

2018-19 international bonus pool amounts were first reported by Baseball America’s Ben Badler back in late March.

International Notes: Twins, Phillies, Cardinals

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With the new international signing period set to begin tomorrow, Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com has compiled some of the most pertinent details for fans interested in following the frenzy to come. As always, an international player is eligible to sign with any MLB team if he is 17, or will turn 17 by the end of the first year of his contract.  The Reds, Marlins, Brewers, Twins, Athletics and Rays have the most money to spend during the upcoming year; each can spend $6,025,400 in the market. Eight teams (the Athletics, Astros, Braves, Cardinals, Nationals, Padres, Reds and White Sox) incurred the maximum penalty from overages during the previous signing period, and as such, those clubs will not be able to sign any individual player for greater than $300K. Sanchez also notes a few players who seem to already have agreements in place with MLB teams, though obviously those deals cannot become official until after midnight.

A few more notes on the international market headed into tomorrow…

  • The Twins look likely to land Venezuelan center fielder Misael Urbina, Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press reports. Urbina should earn a bonus north of $1.5MM, but he’s not the only player who appears to have a deal in place with the club. Berardino adds that Dominican shortstop Felix Rosa and Venezuelan outfielder Alexander Pena seem likely to sign with Minnesota for about $200K apiece, pending the outcomes of their physicals. Baseball America ranks Urbina tenth on its international prospects list for the 2018-2019 signing period, noting his compact swing, high energy and intensity, and his above-average arm. Rosa and Pena both rank outside BA’s top 50.
  • Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports reports that the Phillies have deals in place with at least four international prospects, most notably Dominican hurler Starlyn Castillo. Castillo checks in at number 16 on Baseball America’s international prospects list, giving special credit to his physically mature frame and ability to touch 97 MPH on the radar gun even before his 16th birthday.
  • Without giving anything away in terms of specifics, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch tweets that the Cardinals are expected to land an international prospect for a $300K bonus as early as tomorrow. Goold adds that the Redbirds have been connected to Cuban third baseman Malcolm Nunez, Venezuelan hurler Jesus Rojas, and Venezuelan catcher Diego Velasquez.

Amateur Notes: July 2 Class, Draft, Indians, Pirates, Royals

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The international market is ready to get cranking again, with a new July 2nd class just around the corner. As usual, Ben Badler of Baseball America and Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com are providing plenty of insight. Badler just released his ranking of the 50 best international prospects, with lengthy scouting reports as well as anticipated signing teams and bonuses where available (a BA subscription is required). Sanchez, meanwhile, has his own top 30 rankings and scouting reports posted. On the top of Badler’s rankings is Cuban outfielder Victor Victor Mesa, who has yet to be declared a free agent by Major League Baseball. The other key distinction in his case is that he’s much older and more advanced than the bulk of the available talent. Indeed, Badler believes that Mesa is ready for an upper-minors placement, meaning he may not actually be far from the majors if he can translate his skills into professional production. Sanchez pegs Venezuelan catcher Diego Carataya as the top talent in the class, though perhaps only by way of technicality; because Mesa is not yet formally a free agent, he’s absent from the MLB.com list entirely.

Of course, when it comes to bringing in new talent, the immediate action remains centered around the 2018 amateur draft class:

  • With a deadline of July 6 to work out bonuses, there’s still plenty of time left for unsigned players to come to terms. At present, there are a fair number of first-rounders who’ve yet to lock up agreements. That includes four first-round players: No. 4 pick Nick Madrigal (White Sox), No. 5 pick Jonathan India (Reds), No. 7 pick Ryan Weathers (Padres), and No. 8 pick Carter Stewart (Braves). There’s no indication to this point that the respective teams will have trouble finalizing things. As always, you can catch up on the latest signings with our 2018 Amateur Draft tag.
  • Over the coming weeks, of course, we could begin to see some situations develop that warrant closer attention. It seems there’s at least a bit of uncertainty between the Brewers and their top pick, Brice Turang. The same can be said with regard to a few other talented young players. Ethan Hankins, the No. 35 overall selection, is still in talks with the Indians, as GM Mike Chernoff says and MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian tweets. But he also has an arrangement in place with Chipola College’s JuCo baseball program that would enable him to play a year and then re-enter next year’s draft, Doug Freeman of Prep Baseball Report tweets. Similarly, Pirates draftee Gunnar Hoglund — who went one pick after Hankins — has begun attending summer school orientation at Ole Miss, per Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs (via Twitter).
  • Elsewhere, the status of Oregon State lefty Luke Heimlich remains uncertain as he participates in the finals of the College World Series. But Royals GM Dayton Moore had some noteworthy comments on the situation recently, leaving many to wonder if the Kansas City organization will make a move to add a player whose abilities aren’t questioned, but carries a highly controversial status as a convicted sexual offender. Indeed, Moore has already spoken on Heimlich quite a bit, as Rustin Dodd of The Athletic explains (subscription link). It’ll ultimately come down to an ownership call that has yet to be made, according to Dodd, who writes: “The Royals are not close to signing Heimlich, nor do they have any framework for a deal in place, according to a source familiar with the situation.” It’s hard to know just why the organization (or, perhaps, Moore personally) decided to air its feelings on this subject before reaching a decision. Now that he has, though, perhaps the public reaction will help inform the ultimate course of action.

Quick Hits: Liriano, Mesa, Chisenhall

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Some items as we head into the new week…

  • Even prior to Francisco Liriano’s gem of a start against the Mariners today, the Tigers have been getting trade inquiries about the veteran lefty, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports (Twitter link).  After signing a one-year, $4MM deal with Detroit last winter, Liriano earned a job in the rotation and now has a 3.42 ERA, 6.32 K/9, and 45.1% grounder rate through 52 2/3 innings.  It’s a nice improvement on paper from the struggles Liriano endured as a starter in 2017 and much of 2016, though there are some red flags — the lack of strikeouts, a 9.7% swinging strike rate, a 4.44 BB/9, and a .214 BABIP.  Interested teams could be looking at acquiring Liriano to work out of the bullpen, as the Astros did when they acquired the southpaw in a deadline trade with the Blue Jays last year.  Regardless, it looks like the Tigers should be able to score a decent prospect for their investment in Liriano in the offseason.
  • Victor Victor Mesa is “the best young Cuban prospect to become available since Yoan Moncada,” Baseball America’s Ben Badler writes in a profile of the 21-year-old outfielder that is available to BA subscribers.  Badler assigns a 70 grade (on the 20-80 scouting scale) to Mesa’s speed and throwing arm (the latter meriting “at least a 70”), and compares Mesa to Nationals minor leaguer Victor Robles, a consensus top-10 prospect in baseball.  Since Mesa and his brother only just left Cuba, however, they could face a long wait in getting official league clearance, which will limit their earning power in the 2018-19 July 2 international signing market since most teams have already committed the bulk of their spending pools to other prospects.
  • Lonnie Chisenhall is slated to begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Columbus on Monday, Indians manager Terry Francona told media (including Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer).  Chisenhall will only play every other day initially, Francona said, as the outfielder slowly ramps up after missing over six weeks with a strained calf.  It isn’t clear how long it will be before Chisenhall is ready to return to the Tribe’s roster, though the club is in dire need of some help in right and center field.

Mesa Brothers Leave Cuba To Pursue MLB Contracts

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12:48pm: Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports (via Twitter) that the Cardinals have interest in Victor Victor Mesa and have long been monitoring his performance. Of course, St. Louis is one of the eight teams listed below which can only invest $300K in either brother, so it seems quite likely that another club could push bidding past that level.

11:39am: Outfield prospects Victor Victor Mesa and Victor Mesa Jr. have left Cuba with the intent to pursue contracts with Major League clubs, reports Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com (Twitter link). The elder Mesa brother is 21 years of age, while the younger is still just 16. Victor Victor seemingly confirmed as much this morning by tweeting a picture in which he is wearing a Team USA jacket  alongside his younger brother. They’re being represented by Magnus Sports, per Sanchez.

Both brothers will be considered amateur players under the collective bargaining agreement and will therefore be subject to Major League Baseball’s international bonus pools, despite the fact that the older of the two does come with six seasons of pro ball in Cuba under his belt. As such, they’ll be limited to minor league contracts and signing bonuses that are relatively minimal when compared to the top prices paid for prior Cuban stars.

The Mesa brothers are the sons of Victor Mesa, a 19-year veteran of the Cuban National Series who has in the past served as the manager of Cuba’s team in the World Baseball Classic. Scouting info on the pair is somewhat sparse, especially as pertains to the 16-year-old Mesa Jr.

Prior to last year’s WBC, however, Sanchez called the elder Mesa brother one of the top prospects in all of Cuba, reporting that he was one of the main draws for MLB scouts to the international spectacle. Per Sanchez’s brief report, Victor Victor is a plus runner and defender in the outfield with a strong throwing arm. He enjoyed a terrific campaign in the 2016-17 season in the Cuban National Series, hitting .354/.399/.539 and swiping 40 bases in 70 games — lending credence to reports on his impressive speed. In all, he’s a career .275/.334/.378 hitter in his six professional seasons in Cuba. His aggregate numbers are weighed down, to an extent, by the fact that he made his professional debut at the age of 16 and, unsurprisingly, endured some struggles against the island’s top pitchers in his first couple of seasons.

There’s obviously a fair ways to go before either will be able to sign with a big league organization. The Mesa brothers will first need to be declared free agents by Major League Baseball — a process that could take several months but has, at times, also taken as much as a year for some players. Even if they’re cleared in short order, it stands to reason that they’d likely wait to sign until at least July 2, when the 2018-19 international signing period kicks off, thus resetting the bonus pools for teams throughout the league.

Eight teams — the Reds, A’s, Nationals, Braves, White Sox, Astros, Cardinals and Padres — will still be in the metaphorical “penalty box” for previously shattering their league-allotted pools by more than 15 percent and will subsequently be barred for signing any international amateur player for more than $300K. The other 22 clubs will be able to allocate as much of their pool space as they wish to either or both brothers — it’s not clear if the two are set on signing with the same organization — though the new CBA placed a hard cap on signings and no longer allows clubs to exceed their bonus pools in any capacity.

MLB Releases 2018-19 International Bonus Pools

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All 30 teams have received notification about the size of their bonus pools for the 2018-19 international signing period, Baseball America’s Ben Badler reports.  This is the second year that the current international signing system will be in place, which sets a hard cap on how much teams can spend on international prospects who are under 25 years old and have played six seasons or less in an international professional league (such as Cuba’s Serie Nacional).  Teams are allotted into their respective pools based on revenues and market size.

$6,025,400 bonus pool: Athletics, Brewers, Marlins, Rays, Reds, Twins

$5,504,500 bonus pool: Diamondbacks, Indians, Orioles, Padres, Pirates, Rockies, Royals

$5,004,500 bonus pool: Cardinals

$4,983,500 bonus pool: Angels, Astros, Blue Jays, Braves, Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, Mariners, Mets, Nationals, Rangers, Red Sox, Tigers, White Sox, Yankees

$3,949,000 bonus pool: Phillies

The Phillies and Cardinals each lost money from the draft pools for signing free agents (Carlos Santana and Jake Arrieta for Philly, Greg Holland for St. Louis) who rejected qualifying offers from their former teams.  The Phils and Cards were two of nine teams who didn’t receive revenue-sharing money but also didn’t exceed the luxury tax last season, and thus they had to give up draft picks and $500K in international pool money for each QO free agent signed.

Under the previous CBA’s signing system, teams were penalized for going over their pool limits by being limited to signing players for no more than $300K.  Eight teams (the Astros, A’s, Braves, Cardinals, Nationals, Padres, Reds, and White Sox) are still under this penalty for the 2018-19 international pool, though seven of them will be able to exceed the $300K once the 2019-20 int’l signing period opens on July 2, 2019.  The Braves are the exception, as they still face future penalties based on their punishment for past international signing violations.

Given the $300K signing limit, we could very easily see the Braves and the other seven clubs choose to trade some of their excess pool money for prospects.  Bonus pool money can be traded in $250K increments, and teams can increase their pool by as much as 75 percent of its original size.  Such trades of international bonus pool funds have become increasingly common within the game, with some teams trying to add money to sign a particular international prospect (such as Shohei Ohtani) to teams like the Orioles who freely trade their bonus pool funds since they don’t prioritize the international market.

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