Astros, Round Rock Express Announce Triple-A Affiliate Agreement
THURSDAY: The organizations have announced a four-year player development contract.
TUESDAY: The Triple-A Round Rock franchise has scheduled a press conference on Thursday night. While there’s still no official word, every indication has been that the Astros will be moving their top affiliate to Round Rock. MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart was among those to tweet that the Houston organization will indeed be formalizing an arrangement to bring its highest-level minor-leaguers into the state of Texas.
Previously, of course, both of these outfits had alternative affiliations. The Rangers had utilized Round Rock for eight seasons, but now find themselves among three MLB teams and three Triple-A sites still engaged in match-up negotiations. And the ‘Stros had spent four seasons with the Fresno Grizzlies, who are now looking for a new mate.
Though the Astros-Round Rock connection wasn’t inevitable, it certainly long stood out as a strong possibility. The Triple-A outfit is, after all, owned by the Ryan family. Legendary hurler Nolan Ryan, whose nickname on the mound inspired the club’s “Express” moniker, is presently an executive advisor to the Astros. His son, Astros president of business operations Reid Ryan, is another fellow owner of the minor-league club. Both rank high atop the Houston org chart.
Thus, Round Rock CEO Reese Ryan (son of Nolan and brother of Reid) was acknowledging the obvious yesterday when he said an agreement between these organizations was an “absolute no-brainer.” (Via Mark Berman of FOX 26, on Twitter.) Details of the new pact remain to be announced.
Managerial Notes: Showalter, Riggleman, Mattingly
Earlier this afternoon it was reported that the Rangers are considering moving on from skipper Jeff Banister following the season. In the wake of that report, here’s some more chatter regarding managers whose futures have had some uncertainty surrounding them…
- Fancred’s Jon Heyman reports in this week’s notes column that Orioles manager Buck Showalter is “very likely” to be replaced following this season, though the venerable veteran has yet to be definitively informed one way or another by team decision-makers. The decision on general manager Dan Duquette is more up in the air, per the report, and could yet go either way. Showalter has been managing the O’s since 2010 and guided the team to a 666-677 record that is largely skewed by the unmitigated disaster that has been the 2018 season. He’s among the game’s most respected managers, though there have been reports questioning his job security throughout the season.
- In light of recent reports that interim Reds manager Jim Riggleman is a favorite of owner Bob Castellini, Heyman adds that Riggleman additionally has numerous fans in the Cincinnati front office. The 65-year-old Riggleman has a decent chance at being tabbed the team’s long-term skipper, though former Red Sox manager John Farrell will be among those considered to step into that role as well. The Reds hired Farrell to work for them in a scouting capacity last offseason.
- Asked by Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald whether manager Don Mattingly will return for the 2019 season (Twitter link), Marlins CEO Derek Jeter suggested that to be the case, rhetorically replying, “He’s under contract, right?” Mattingly is indeed under contract, but only through the 2019 campaign. Beyond that, it’s not clear whether new Miami ownership has plans to bring in a manager of their own preference — Mattingly was inherited from the previous regime — or whether there’s interest in extending him beyond the ’19 season. Mattingly’s Marlins clubs haven’t had much success, and that’s truer than ever in 2018, though he wasn’t given much to work with heading into the current campaign following last offseason’s organizational tear-down.
Rangers Consider Replacing Jeff Banister
The Texas Rangers are considering moving on from their manager Jeff Banister, according to a report from Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. Banister, the 2015 AL Manager of the year, is currently under contract through the 2019 season after the club exercised his option immediately following the 2017 season.
Banister, 54, was brought on to manage the team prior to the 2015 season, his first at the helm of a major league club. After back-to-back AL West titles to begin his tenure, the Rangers have slumped to a 64-88 mark this season, 31 games back of the division-leading Astros, after a disappointing 2017 campaign.
Per Wilson, though, it’s Banister’s inconsistent, and at times inadequate, communication skills that may lead to his departure, and not the team’s recent performance on the field.
The article, well worth a full read for Rangers fans, details multiple reports of players relaying the perceived communication issues. Per Wilson, players will often arrive at the ballpark unsure of whether or not they’ll be playing that day, even if they’ve been previously assured of a day off. Starting pitchers, typically the most steadfast creatures of habit, are often not informed of when their next start will take place, and are thus confused as to how best to prepare.
With General Manager Jon Daniels comfortable embarking on a full-scale rebuild, what with his newly-inked contract in place, Wilson makes certain that the club’s manager of the future will be unilaterally committed to the development of young talent. So far Banister appears on board, but only time well tell if the front office feels the same.
Michael Fulmer Undergoes Knee Surgery
As had largely been expected by this point, the Tigers announced today that righty Michael Fulmer has undergone surgery on his right knee. (Via MLB.com’s Jason Beck, on Twitter.) The repair work to his meniscus is not expected to prevent Fulmer from participating fully in Spring Training next year.
Fulmer, 25, went mostly backwards this year in a rebuilding season for the club. Though his 7.48 K/9 returned to the standard he’d set in his sterling rookie season of 2016, Fulmer gave up a career high 19 HR in just 132 2/3 IP, saw his walk rate spike a nearly a hitter per nine (3.13, from 2.19 in ’17), and allowed hard contact nearly 40% of the time in 2018. It was, by most accounts, a disappointing season for the former Rookie of the Year.
Still the crown jewel of a young Tigers rotation, Fulmer, a Super Two player, will embark on the first of his four arbitration-eligible seasons in 2019. He figures to reprise his role as a coveted trade candidate in the offseason, where teams will no doubt value his long period of control, mostly consistent strike-throwing, and lack of significant injuries to this point. It’s worth noting, too, that Fulmer’s average fastball velocity remained, at 95.8 MPH, one of the ten best in the league, so perhaps heretofore untapped upside is still in play.
AL West Notes: Manaea, Keuchel, Felix
There’s a bit of surprisingly good news for an Athletics team that has weathered a withering run of injuries to young pitchers. As MLB.com’s Jane Lee was among those to report (Twitter links), the Oakland organization says it was actually rather encouraged by the outcome of Sean Manaea‘s shoulder procedure yesterday. Though the team likely won’t be able to rely on him as a contributor in 2019, it seems there’s some hope that Manaea could be ready to return late in the season. And the long-term outlook is generally good, which is particularly promising for a hurler who is only just reaching arbitration eligibility.
More from some other prominent AL West hurlers …
- Astros southpaw Dallas Keuchel is headed for free agency in less than two months, but that doesn’t mean he’s ready to think about it. As Mark Berman of FOX 26 was among those to convey (video link on Twitter), the lefty says he isn’t interested in pondering his future, preferring instead to “enjoy this team and this year.” That’s surely a sensible position to take for a variety of reasons. The 30-year-old and his teammates are, after all, trying to ramp up for a second consecutive World Series run. And he can best increase his market options and earning power by continuing to throw the ball well. Through 196 2/3 solid frames this year, Keuchel carries a 3.71 ERA with 6.7 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 along with a 53.3% groundball rate. That last figure, while still strong, is well under Keuchel’s established levels, though he is compensating in some regards by holding opposing hitters to less home runs (11.2% HR/FB, 0.78 HR/9) than he has typically.
- The Mariners shouldn’t worry about the $27MM they owe Felix Hernandez in deciding his future with the club, veteran journalist Bob Dutton writes on the KLAY 1180 blog. Simply put, that’s a sunk cost. And Dutton says the M’s ought to ignore it — at least, perhaps, unless they are able to arrange some kind of trade scenario utilizing the contract. That’s not to say that the end ought to come before the start of the 2019 season, but Dutton argues it’s not a possibility the organization should shy from considering.
MLBTR Chat Transcript: 9/20/18
Click here to read a transcript of today’s chat with host Jeff Todd.
Austin Maddox Undergoes Rotator Cuff Surgery
Red Sox righty Austin Maddox has undergone surgery to his right rotator cuff, the club announced today. He’s expected to be sidelined for about twelve months, putting his 2019 season in jeopardy.
Maddox, 27, missed most of the 2018 season with a right shoulder strain, so this news strikes a cruel blow to a once-promising future in the Boston bullpen.
After a methodical climb through the Red Sox system, the hard-throwing righty inserted himself into the late-inning mix for the ’17 Red Sox with a 0.52 ERA in 17.1 IP, though his modest peripherals (7.27 K/9, 26% GB) didn’t necessarily portend future dominance.
Two rehab stints this season (the first in May, the latter cut short at the end of August) both ended in disaster for the young hurler, as he allowed 15 hits and 4 homers in 5 2/3 innings for Triple-A Pawtucket and Double-A Portland, doubtless a product of the still-iffy nature of his right shoulder.
Chad Kuhl Undergoes Tommy John Surgery
TODAY: Kuhl underwent TJS, meaning he’s slated for a year or more or rehab before he’ll be expected to return to action.
YESTERDAY: Pirates right-hander Chad Kuhl underwent surgery on his right elbow earlier today, team director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk announced to reporters (Twitter link via MLB.com’s Adam Berry). The team hasn’t provided further details just yet, so it’s not clear whether the operation was Tommy John surgery or a less severe procedure. Kuhl hadn’t pitched since late June due to a forearm strain and tightness in his elbow, and he’d recently suffered a setback upon trying to ramp back up for a September return.
The 26-year-old Kuhl has started 61 games for the Bucs across the past three seasons, emerging as a useful and cost-effective back-of-the-rotation arm for manager Clint Hurdle. Through 313 big league frames, the former ninth-round pick (2013) has worked to a 4.37 ERA while averaging 7.9 K/9, 3.6 BB/9 and 1.09 HR/9 to go along with a 41 percent ground-ball rate. His timetable for a return, obviously, won’t be known until the club divulges further details.
[Related: Pittsburgh Pirates depth chart]
If Kuhl’s surgery allows him to return in time for Opening Day 2019 or early in the season, he’ll figure to be in the mix for a rotation spot alongside Jameson Taillon, Chris Archer, Ivan Nova, Joe Musgrove, Nick Kingham and Trevor Williams. Pittsburgh has a fairly deep stock of MLB-ready rotation pieces, though, which could potentially push Kuhl to the ‘pen — especially if the team intends to be conservative in terms of his workload following a season in which he was limited to 85 innings.
It’s not the way that Kuhl or the Pirates were hoping his season would end, but he’ll have ample time to work his way back into the fold for the team in future seasons. Kuhl will finish out the year with two-plus years of Major League service but fall well shy of Super Two status, meaning he won’t even be arbitration-eligible until after the 2019 season. Pittsburgh currently controls him through the 2022 campaign.
Madison Bumgarner Discusses Future With Giants
Giants southpaw Madison Bumgarner discussed his future with the organization in a chat with Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle. It’s certainly well worth a full read.
Bumgarner, 29, says that the club has yet to reach out regarding a possible contract extension. As things stand, he indicated, he’s not sure what the team’s intentions are as it prepares for an offseason of uncertainty.
Of course, it’s certain that Bumgarner’s 2019 option will be exercised. But it’s at least possible to imagine the San Francisco club seeking offers after picking it up at a bargain $12MM rate. Despite some areas of concern that have arisen this year for the big lefty, there’d be plenty of demand for his services if he was made available.
Bumgarner says he hasn’t entertained the thought that his time with the Giants could conceivably be nearing an end, explaining that he’s “a one-day-at-a-time kind of guy.” Of course, he did also say that he’d “like to be [in San Francisco] my whole career,” so it seems fair to assume that Bumgarner isn’t exactly itching for a change of scenery.
Certainly, it’d be interesting to see how talks might progress if the Giants open negotiations with the southpaw’s reps at The Legacy Agency. His outstanding track record speaks for itself, of course. He’s a premium regular season performer and postseason legend.
Despite the obvious positives, Bumgarner has shown some cracks. He has missed significant time in each of the past two seasons, breaking a string of six-straight 200-inning campaigns. He also hasn’t been as dominant when on the hill. This year, for instance, Bumgarner has a 3.14 ERA but is averaging only 7.5 K/9 and surrendering a career-high 3.1 BB/9.
The future is uncertain to an extent not previously seen for one of the game’s preeminent workhorses. Estimators value Bumgarner as a low-4.00 ERA hurler. He’s allowing far more hard contact (40.1%) than ever before, while posting declines in swinging-strike rate (9.5%) and average fastball velocity (90.8 mph). That he has nevertheless succeeded is a credit to Bumgarner, to be sure, but sustainability remains in question.
As Schulman explains, there are a host of variables at play. Though Bumgarner says he doesn’t expect to command a premium for the excess value he provided under his early-career extension, he does note that “guys are looking to get paid what they think they’re worth compared to the market and how other players are getting paid.” What that might be in this case, and whether the Giants are positioned to make that sort of deal, is open to debate — and negotiation.
Silver Linings: National League Central
We looked yesterday at the silver linings for out-of-the-race clubs in the American League Central. Today, we’ll hop over to their National League counterparts. Given the successes of the team’s three best clubs, we’re only considering a pair of organizations this time around.
The most promising development to occur in these otherwise unsuccessful 2018 NL Central campaigns (with link to current depth chart):
Pirates: Rotation Core
It has been a rollercoaster year for the Bucs, who sprinted into the trade deadline but faded after doing some limited buying. Of course, the club’s mid-season acquisitions weren’t just aimed at the 2018 season, but they assuredly were designed to enhance the organization’s chances of contending over the next couple of seasons.
Given that the club has sought to consolidate its talent at the MLB level for the next few seasons, it seems fair to focus here on young major-league talent rather than further-off prospects. In that regard, the development of a new core of controllable starters is a notable turn of events that has perhaps gone unappreciated amidst the attention showered upon the acquisition of — and price paid for — Chris Archer.
By most measures, the Pirates had a middle-of-the-road rotation this year. But it achieved those results at a minimal cost. The 2019 staff looks to have plenty of talent and will again be dirt cheap. Archer and Ivan Nova are earning only $16MM, while a four-pack of young starters — Jameson Taillon, Trevor Williams, Joe Musgrove, and Nick Kingham — all remain shy of arbitration eligibility.
Taillon has entrenched himself as a top-of-the-rotation arm. Williams and Musgrove have each at least established that they are high-quality rotation pieces. (The former has outperformed his peripherals somewhat while the opposite is true of the latter.) And though he has struggled to keep the ball in the yard in his debut effort, Kingham has otherwise shown a MLB-worthy skillset. Plus, top-twenty leaguewide prospect Mitch Keller is knocking on the door, even if surgery for Chad Kuhl hurts the depth picture.
The case for the Pirates as a surprisingly strong 2019 contender begins with the idea that they’ll have a deep, capable, and affordable rotation. But it also relies upon some other recent developments. The bullpen has a similarly promising core unit in the works, with five controllable sub-3.00 ERA hurlers on board (including deadline addition Keone Kela). The resurgence of Francisco Cervelli, bounceback of Starling Marte, and arrival of Adam Frazier (who has thrived) and Kevin Newman (who has not) are all worthy of note. There have been less-than-encouraging developments as well, such as Gregory Polanco‘s injury, but the Bucs could be an interesting team to watch, especially if they are able to make some strategic investments in areas of need this winter.
Reds: Middle-Infield Magic
There was a theory circulating in the middle of the season that the Reds were on the cusp of contention, having played roughly .500 ball since Jim Riggleman replaced Bryan Price in the managerial role. That concept has fallen out of favor. After all, since the calendar flipped to August, the Cincinnati club carries a 17-29 record.
Still, the organization does have some hope to carry with it out of 2018. In particular, it seems to have resolved some things in the middle infield. Scooter Gennett only has one season left before reaching free agency, but there’s ample indication he’ll engage with the team in offseason extension talks. Certainly, he has doubled down on a breakout 2017 campaign and proven worthy of everyday status — though his future value to the organization will certainly depend upon the price of a new deal, if it’s struck.
The shortstop position, meanwhile, had been in question since Zack Cozart departed, but the team now has a potential solution. Jose Peraza certainly hasn’t graded as a stellar defender there, but he has been within range of average with the glove. And his work at the plate has turned around after a worrisome 2017 campaign. Through 647 plate appearances in 2018, Peraza has hit at a roughly league-average .290/.329/.421 rate (99 wRC+) with 13 home runs and 23 steals. With his excellent baserunning added into the equation, he has been worth 2.5 fWAR and 2.1 rWAR.
If top prospect Nick Senzel gets healthy and comfortable in the corner outfield this fall, the Reds could have a strong position-player unit in place. Unfortunately, what this club really needed was a shinier silver lining from its pitching staff. Luis Castillo did bounce back from a rough opening to the season and Anthony DeSclafani is finally back on the bump. And there were some strong bullpen performances, even if the peripherals tell a much less promising tale. But the club also perhaps cast away the hidden gem it unearthed by trading Dylan Floro, who has thrived with the Dodgers. It got worrying news on top pitching prospect Hunter Greene. Several young starters failed to establish themselves (Tyler Mahle, Sal Romano) or were limited by injury (Brandon Finnegan), while Homer Bailey‘s malaise continued. Robert Stephenson showed promise at Triple-A but then struggled in a brief MLB rotation stint, was bumped to the bullpen, and ended up on the DL with shoulder problems.
Needless to say, there’s still vast uncertainty in the staff in 2019 and beyond. Finding a way to a quality 2019 pitching unit remains a difficult, but critical, task for the Cinci front office.