Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald has obtained two versions of Project Wolverine – the operational plan of new Marlins owners Derek Jeter and Bruce Sherman – one of which is from August and the other from a couple months before. According to the document, whose name stems from Jeter’s home state of Michigan (the Wolverine State), the Marlins will turn a profit in 2018. Most of that will come from MLB’s sale of BAMTech to Disney, which entitles each team to a one-time payout of $50MM. Otherwise, exactly how much of a profit the Marlins will rake in next season is going to depend largely on their television deal with Fox, Jackson explains.
Back in August, Jeter and Sherman forecast a $68MM “cash flow” profit, but they projected $44.8MM would come via an up-front payment from a renegotiated TV contract with Fox. There hasn’t been a renegotiation yet, though, and if it doesn’t occur, the Marlins’ projected profits would drop to $23MM or lower for next season, Jackson reports. The Marlins’ pact with Fox runs through 2020 and ranks as the lowest-paying TV contract in the majors, and as Jackson notes, it’s a key reason why the team is unwilling to field a larger payroll. Additionally, as of August, the Marlins expected a 2018 spike in attendance revenue, but that now looks questionable at best with fan favorites Giancarlo Stanton and Marcell Ozuna having been traded in payroll-slashing deals. Looking beyond next season, Jeter and Sherman projected profits of $10MM in 2019, $15.8MM in 2020 and $22MM in 2021 in August, details Jackson, whose piece is well worth a full read.
More from the NL:
- The Dodgers have hired former major league right-hander Mark Prior to serve as their bullpen coach, according to Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports (Twitter links here). Prior had worked as the division-rival Padres’ minor league pitching coordinator since he officially retired from the game in 2013. The 37-year-old was “very good” in that role, notes Brown, who suggests Prior could eventually take over for Rick Honeycutt as the Dodgers’ pitching coach.
- The Rockies re-signed reliever Jake McGee to a three-year, $27MM contract earlier this winter, and he repaid the club by helping recruit closer Wade Davis to Colorado, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post relays. “I told him this was a team that was going to win now,” said McGee. “I told him that (manager) Bud Black was awesome and I really liked how he used the bullpen. I told him the team was awesome and the communication was really good.” McGee and Davis, who joined the Rox last week on a three-year, $52MM pact, previously played together in both the minors and majors as members of the Rays organization. The two were even Single-A roommates at times, Saunders adds.
- Brewers righty Jimmy Nelson, who underwent surgery on a torn labrum in September, told MLB Network on Tuesday that his “rehab is going just about as well as it could possibly go, knock on wood” (via Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel). Its still unclear, though, how much time the 28-year-old will miss next season after emerging as a front-of-the-rotation starter in 2017. For now, Nelson’s “really anxious to start a throwing program and get to spring training.”
If the Marlins stopped trading now, they still have a good heart of the lineup.
And no pitching
You got that right. It’s Urena and Straily in the rotation followed by question marks, and other than Barraclough and Nicolino in the pen, nobody there has a recent track record of success.
That lineup couldn’t succeed with Stanton and Ozuna
The team couldn’t succeed as they had a weak farm system with quality SP’s prospect and and had only 2 decent SP’s on the major league team.
The offense was solid enough.
Not without pitching it couldn’t !
A team with no farm to speak of should deal away as much as they can to compete.
Cardinals and Marlins still line up as good trade partners.
Cardinals get Bour and Yelich
Marlins get Kelly, Flaherty, Bader, Hudson, Fernandez, Hicks, and Gomber.
Cardinals improve 1st and have yelich ozuna and pham/fowler
Marlins pick up 5 pitchers, kelly to replace realmuto, and bader for OF
Marlins deal Realmuto to the Brewers for Santana, Phillips, Ortiz, Peralta, and Ponce.
Brewers upgrade catcher, keep brinson to replace Santana.
Marlins pick up 3 pitching prospects and solid mlb ready OF to go with bader.
how much of an improvement is Yelich on Fowler is definitely better but if you have Fowler anyways why spend that much to upgrade
If the cardinals acquire yelich they can keep fowler and sell high on pham to someone like the giants or someone looking for a CF long term.
You can replace brinson and have the brewers keep santana. Either way Realmuto is an uprade over Pina, whom the brewers themselves can trade with high value due to a strong season.
Love this! Can you run my team? Let’s trade off all of our future pitching for opportunity to sell high on Pham, buy high on Yelich, and quite possibly be worse off it two spots in 2018 by also burying Martinez. #genius
If I ran your team theyd wind up where they currently are at. No world series.
If the cardinals do wind up signing arrieta, thatll give them arrieta, weaver, reyes, martinez, wacha, mikolas. The cardinals have pitching.
But course like many others you dont have the balls to post what you think would be a good trade scenario XD.
The reason most people don’t post their harebrained MLB The Show-esque trade scenarios on here because they are almost always unrealistic and completely wrong, and whoever posts them instantly looks like a dimwit for doing it. You included
Lol i wish
That would never happen under Stearns. Manny Piña isn’t arb eligible until 2019 and is coming off a breakout season. Realmuto is worth a lot but Santana and Phillips would be the most Miami could hope to get; plus if the Brewers want to trade outfielders Keon Broxton would be the guy they would shop, Santana is viewed as a long-term piece currently on a team near contention. Freddy Peralta and Ponce are gems, they won’t come easily either with Stearns looking to build the farm up rather than trade from it.
The Cards aren’t trading Kelly
I think the salary dump was a great move. I understand that the Marlins feel like they are being betrayed by the new owners but with a high salary and in a low market, you can. it sustain that kind of business. This error falls the previous owners for signing Stanton to the craziest contract ever instead of just letting him go and signing other Free Agents to build your team around. Also Tigers are doing this, Tampa Bay, Pirates (maybe), White Sox, and more. Marlins stick out like a sore thumg because it was Stanton they traded.
No, they stick out because they treated like Stanton like he was garbage, and not receiving one single top 100 prospect in exchange for 3 very good players in Marcell Ozuna, Giancarlo Stanton, and Dee Gordon.
How on Earth is trading him to a contending team treating him like garbage. His contract was rediculous. It’s just as much as his fault as it is the previous owners fault. A player should understand how his signing will effect not only the market he is in but his own organization. So should his agent. I do not think that is a tall order to ask for a player that wants to be in contending team. It should be a warning to all those players that want those huge contracts with all those years. Understand how much you will affect payroll because it will affect your lineup.
So threatening him saying he will be a marlin for life is okay?
You’re joking right? The comment was made to show Stanton he wasn’t in the driver’s seat, and ultimately it was up to the Marlins, and they wouldn’t keep looking for deals until Stanton was pleased. They were trying to move it along. Welcome to the real world.
Agree. It’ll be hard times for a few years but they’ll come around. Moving Yelich and Realmuto would hasten the process. It’ll be interesting to see what they do in the next few months.
Marlins stick out like a sore thumb bc this isn’t the first or second or third etc that they’ve dismantled and rebuilt.
As a Fish fan I get the plan and 100% understand it and hope we truly get back prospects to get us back to being postseason competitive. The passing of Jose also affected this franchise dramatically.
I hope Sherman groups and Co truly build a success sustainable franchise. Marlins are automatic winners once they get in the postseason anyway!
Nothing is automatic in Baseball !
The Stanton contract was effectively value neutral though. They traded their young, marketable, reigning MVP purely for financial reasons. It’s a PR nightmare for an ownership group that had the opportunity to get off in the right foot – instead they have alienated whatever fans the Marlins have left.
Also, it will certainly impact the cash injection coming from a future TV deal – the difference in marketing value and viewer numbers due to offloading Stanton etc, and this bad PR, will not be small change. The Marlins immediately become one of the most un-watchable teams in baseball – those metrics will hurt their bargaining power.
It wasn’t an error…it was a calculated tactic to entice a new cable deal and boost the franchise price tag. Well see how all these cable deals look as people keep cord cutting and go to streaming.
I was just checking the Fangraphs projection and it said that the Brewers will be a 73 win team? Now I can understand a little regression without additions and the temporary loss of Jimmy Nelson, but only 73 wins? I doubt that’s the case. Does anyone here have any insight to why they rank the Brewers to be this low?
Maybe a bit low, but I’d say:
Sketchy situation in CF
Thames was meh after April
Aging Braun
Sketchy rotation
Unsettle at 2b
what’s so sketchy about their cf? thames was only meh after April unless your comparing it to his April.
I agree. Broxton wasn’t phenomenal, but they have so many good outfielders nearing the end of the prospect pipeline I wouldn’t be too worried. Thames could have been better, but he was still serviceable, and worse comes to worse he can platoon with Aguilar. Braun is no longer a core member of the team in terms of output, but again he’s doing alright. I do agree on the rotation and 2B front, which is why I’m holding out for some major additions there.
i’m not a brewers fan, but it seems like if they signed brandon phillips, someone like jon jay to play cf until the young guys establish themselves and then flip him if he performs, and make a push for a 2nd-tier starter to fill in for Nelson such as Cobb of Lynn, they could make the wild card game, assuming the cubs and cardinals perform as expected
Thames wasn’t any good after April. League average is probably all to hope for this year out of him. His second half numbers aren’t really acceptable for a starting 1B. He does that again I suspect Aguilar will be seeing a lot of PT.
Thames had a tick under .800 OPS after the all star break. To say he wasn’t “any good”after April is a stretch. He is who he is–an effective platoon option paired with Aguilar.
He is a below average defender. His k rate spiked significantly in the second half and his walk rate took a dip. Had he put up his second half numbers all year he’d be right around replacement level. So he wasn’t very good. Can’t hit lefties so he’s a strict platoon player.
But with that being said he could make an adjustment and be a solid platoon option. It might be a stretch to assume he’s only going to be the player he was in the second half. Could make the argument that Aguilar is the better player too though.
A platoon option with an .800 OPS in the second half of what you say was a not very good season. For the money, that is certainly acceptable, particularly as part of a platoon.
1 WAR is worth about $8 MM these days. Thames makes $7 MM a year. He is earning his keep.
And actually his walk rate went up in the second half–7.3% in the first half, 9.0 % in the second half.
His walk rate definitely dipped. It was pretty close both ways though. His K rate certainly went up. He looks like a very streaky player who may have some outbursts. I never said he was a horrible investment, I just wouldn’t be surprised if Aguilar took away more Abs. Bbref has Thames at 1.5 WAR which includes his offensive explosion in the first half. Be hard for me to think he’s worth any more than a win this year.
It will more than likely change if they traded for a good player or they signed a notable free-agent. I think all of that fluctuates with each trade and with each signing. Just my opinion
I mean I expect some regression that’s almost 2016 twins like hard to expect that
Maybe because of the other teams in the division have gotten better
Completely off subject, and I apologize, but does anyone know how to find the waiver claims by team? Historical. Ideally, reds for the periods of 2013-2015. Sorry if I wasted your time and energy reading this post.
Reds website > Transaction History
m.reds.mlb.com/roster/transactions/2013/06
Before people jump all over Jeter….anyone seriously think that owners assume a responsibility as a public trust? It’s a business. Those fans who root for teams whose owners are committed to fielding a winning team are fortunate.
*raises hand*
If you take public money to finance your stadium/revenue stream, then yes you do have a responsibility to attempt to win.
Certainly the people of Miami deserve better from the sweetheart deal this franchise was given.
Hey, i’m completely with you on wealthy owners getting freebies from the taxpayer. Unfortunately, dumb politicians hand these things out.
My question is how can he renegotiate a TV contract when he got rid of the only marketable stars. I don’t know how a lot of this works but I always figured Stanton was an investment toward getting better ticket sales/TV ratings
It kind of looks bad when an iconic player for one team becomes an owner of a team the next few years and basically gives that teams best player to his former team. LA would have given more and Staton would have agreed.
“LA would have given more and Stanton would have agreed”
In no world is the expiring contracts of Agon, McCarthy. Kazmir better than a kid with an 80 grade fastball, and team-friendly contract of Starlin ($22M next two years, with third year team option)
Please stop spreading conspiracy lies.
Though You did get the part Dodgers Stantons #1 choice of team he’d waive no trade to correct.
But you do understand that for hr Marlins taking about 60-80 million in bad contract defeats the point of trading Stanton?
That eliminated the Dodgers from acquiring him. Dodgers could’ve offered more but they chose not too.
No expiring contract is a bad contract—But your point still stands…
Dodgers “offer” for Stanton, was inferior to the Yankees’ plain and simple.
Starlin’s 2/22 isn’t really a bargain. Let’s not act like it is. slightly under market value at best.
Starlin, batted .300/.338/.545 with 16 homers over 112 games, in 2017.
He’s owed $22M over next two years, plus third year $16M club option ($1M buyout)
The guy’s 27 years old. Many Yankee fans miss him, but it’s the nature of the business. Feel free to shred him for his defense. Guy is still a trade asset because of his production, relative to his contract. No, he’s not as good as Stanton, just a better offer, than whatever the Dodgers offered…
Just trying to dispel conspiracy theorists, I apologize if I was disprespectful any way.
Plus Jeter is not THE OWNER! He only has a 10% stake
Also, Michael Hill is the man in charge in Miami!
Except if it was a normal business then they wouldnt have paid $1.2 billion for the team when revenues do not reflect anywhere near that valuation. That’s like buying one average doing Mcdonalds franchise for $50 million. But guess what, its not a normal business, its a professional sports team and you cannot run it like a typical every day business, so these guys better pull their head out of their a$$ or they’re going to have a crappy product on the field and lots if red in the books even while trying cut corners.
Yea! Poor guys are ONLY gonna make $68 million dollars in profit this year now in Miami. What suckers!
Why does the team’s business plan need to have a code name like a movie villain’s dastardly plot?
It’s more exciting that way. Marlins are like the Navy SEALS. Code names are the way to go.
It’s a odd, but common, practice in the world of mergers and acquisitions. The main reason companies/people do it, is so that they can have conversations without unwanted people picking up details that they don’t want leaked publicly.
They’re trying to make a profit already?!?! Wtf is wrong with these guys. I might hate them more than Loria already. this isn’t a normal business, you can’t run it like one, because if it was, No MORON would have paid $1.2 billion for a $750 million company. Rebuild but rebuild right, get top prospects and trade everyone but dont “sell” making a profit, thats just naive. Sell the fact you can build a stable consistently increasing asset, than will turn profits with time and effort and make everyone very rich when they sell High 10 years from now.
I don’t think they are trying to turn a profit. From the scattered reports it sounds like they just couldn’t afford the short term interest payments.
The Marlins are gonna make $68 million in profits this year! How dare them! Stupid business men !
Jeter knows what he is doing… trust me. The marlins team had no way of competing for a World Series championship for the next 2-3 years based on the market they’re in and based on the organizational depth he acquired. New stars will always be made in baseball and it’s best that guys like Stanton and ozuna can go to teams that have a better overall makeup to win it all within the next couple of years. It is hard to see your team rebuild, as the marlins are. They won’t be contenders until about 2022/23 I would say but I think at the end of the day, Jeter will have the franchise running a lot better than loria was running it.
Finally. someone who gets it.
(Unless you’re a Marlins fan…)
IF he rebuilds correctly. Half assed prospects wont get it done. Ive been begging to hit the reset button but they gotta go all out. They need to worry less about quick small profits and look at the long term big picture where the real money is. Spend on international market, trade for top prospects, be willing to eat money.
Throwing $1.2B at an ‘investment’ and hoping to make $20M a year is a pretty small return. Especially with that $20M including an uptick in attendance. The investors would do better in low-risk bonds.
This exactly. I think this article merely references the profit projections. I don’t think it’s trying to say that their only goal is to turn small profits on a huge investment.
Thats not how i read it but even so, doing it right, investing in long term success, there shouldn’t be a chance in hell to make a profit until 2020.
They are turning a huge profit this year already! Read the reports!
I miss the 2003 team with Kerry Wood and Mark Prior. Glad to hear Prior still has a future in the MLB, at this point we can only dream of what his career would have been like had it not been for injuries… and Dusty.
Maybe Prior can try to be the Dodgers 3rd, 4th or 5th starter and coach the other 4 days.
So the Marlins knew they were going to dump Stanton, Gordon, & Ozuna, and they projected an INCREASE in attendance? Are they letting Jeter handle finances & the rich dude handle baseball decisions?
Before I read the rest of the paragraph, I actually thought it was called “Project Wolverine” because Jeter’s plan was to tear into this team like a pack of ravenous wolverines ripping the organization apart limb from limb until there was nothing left.
PROJECT WOOOOOOLVERINE!!! WTF does Jeter think he’s doing, fighting off the red army in Colorado?
Nice!
The Marlins drew 1.6 million fans last year.
Only 820,000 actually paid for their tickets. Half of the tickets given out were free.
And people wonder why they are cutting payroll?
Are you serious? They give out free tickets over there?
Sherman and Jeter wildly overpaid for the franchise instead of sensibly walking away. Seems like Project Wolverine is reactionary to that gross overpay written by 2 guys who just finished reading the Cliffs Notes version of Hedgefunding for Dummies. Why exactly will attendance increase? More people want a front row seat to watch an epic train wreck?
The Rox now have a competitive bullpen. They should give the Dodgers some competition for the western division.