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Archives for September 2018

Dustin Pedroia Will Not Return In 2018

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Red Sox manager Alex Cora announced today that second baseman Dustin Pedroia will not return during the 2018 season, as Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston was among those to report (Twitter links). In fact, Pedroia has been recovering from a previously undisclosed knee surgery since July.

Of course, even without knowing of the surgery, it has long seemed unlikely that Pedroia would make it back to the field this year. The 35-year-old attempted to return from offseason knee surgery but played only three games before again hitting the shelf. While it wasn’t clear at the time that he’d be sidelined this long, there never was much indication of progress over the months that followed.

For the Boston organization, the absence of Pedroia was already accounted for earlier this summer. The club swung a deal for veteran second bagger Ian Kinsler, who is perhaps as neat a match for Pedroia’s skillset and veteran status as could be imagined.

Of course, Kinsler is slated to hit the open market at season’s end, while Pedroia remains under contract through 2021. Under the extension signed over the summer of 2013, Pedroia will earn $40MM total over the ensuing three-year span — a theoretically reasonable sum for a player of his quality, even at this advanced stage of his career, but also now a hefty amount to have committed given his increasingly worrisome slate of injuries.

For now, the Red Sox will surely welcome Pedroia as a non-playing part of the dugout mix as they seek to convert an incredible regular season into postseason glory. But the offseason will present some tough questions. Brock Holt and (likely) Eduardo Nunez will remain on hand as potential options, though clearly the team’s preference would be for those players to function as reserves.

Pedroia says his most recent procedure was to remove scar tissue, so perhaps it’s not a major concern in and of itself. The hope will have to be that a lengthy respite will allow him to finally get the troublesome knee in shape after requiring significant surgeries in each of the past two months of October. And Pedroia himself says he expects to be ready to go for the 2019 season. Surely, though, further infield moves will at least be contemplated.

Nationals Activate Sean Doolittle

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The Nationals announced today that they have activated closer Sean Doolittle. He has been sidelined since mid-July with a stress reaction in his left foot.

While the initial expectation was that Doolittle would only miss a brief stretch, he ended up on the shelf for a key portion of the season in which the club failed to get back into the picture in the NL East. Now, despite some less-than-stirring recent performances from the division-leading Braves and Phillies, the Nats are buried at three games under .500 and 8.5 games off of the divisional pace.

Clearly, there’s no longer any reasonable hope that Doolittle will help his team climb back into contention. Particularly in these circumstances, and given his long-running challenges with injuries, it stands to reason that he’ll be handled carefully upon his return.

Before going on the DL, Doolittle had been one of the game’s most dominant relievers. In 37 1/3 innings, he allowed just six earned runs on a paltry 17 hits and three walks — good for an absurd 0.536 WHIP — while racking up 49 strikeouts.

Fortunately for the Nats, there are still two more seasons of control left to work with. The extension that Doolittle signed with the A’s, who dealt him to D.C. last summer, includes consecutive club options of just $6MM and $6.5MM ($500K buyout apiece) for the 2019 and 2020 seasons.

Yankees Activate Didi Gregorius

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The Yankees announced on Friday that they’ve reinstated shortstop Didi Gregorius from the 10-day disabled list. He’d been out since Aug. 20 due to a left heel injury.

Gregorius, 28, is in the midst of a career season at the plate, having batted .270/.333/.482 with 22 homers, 22 doubles and four triples through his first 508 trips to the plate. The injury to Gregorius prompted Gleyber Torres to slide from second base over to shortstop, with Neil Walker stepping up at second base in recent days. Walker had been seeing regular time in right field due to a wide slate of outfield injuries for the Yanks, though the acquisition of Andrew McCutchen freed Walker to return to the infield.

[Related: New York Yankees depth chart]

New York has been hit by several injuries since the All-Star break, though both Gregorius and Gary Sanchez have now returned to the lineup. Closer Aroldis Chapman was placed on the disabled list back on Aug. 22, and it’s still not entirely clear when Aaron Judge’s wrist will be healthy enough for him to return to the lineup. The Yankees’ chances of winning the American League East have all but disappeared, as they currently trail the Red Sox by 9.5 games, but they’re comfortably in possession of the top Wild Card spot at the moment. As things stand, they’d square off against a surprising Athletics team, though the Mariners are still chasing down a Wild Card spot as well, trailing Oakland by five and a half games.

Orioles Select Corban Joseph

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The Orioles announced Friday that they’ve selected the contract of infielder Corban Joseph from Double-A Bowie. He’ll join the big league club for the remainder of the season.

[Related: Baltimore Orioles depth chart]

It’ll be the second call to the big leagues this season for Joseph — the younger brother of Baltimore catcher Caleb Joseph. The younger Joseph brother went 1-for-9 in four games with the O’s earlier this season before being designated for assignment and outrighted back to the club’s Double-A affiliate.

Joseph, 29, has enjoyed a solid season with Bowie this year (albeit against much younger competition), hitting .312/.381/.497 with 17 homers, 30 doubles, a pair of triples and eight steals in 523 plate appearances across 122 games. He’s appeared at first base, second base and third base in the minors. His addition gives the Orioles a full 40-man roster.

2018-19 Opt-Out & Player Option Decisions

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With Major League teams increasingly adding opt-out provisions to free-agent contracts as a means of incentivizing players to sign, there are now a handful of those decisions that impact the free-agent market every offseason. With nearly 90 percent of the season already in the books, many of the opt-out decisions/player option decisions look pretty clear cut.

Things could change over the final month, but here’s a look at where things currently stand…

Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers (Two years, $65MM remaining): Truthfully, Kershaw is the only player with an opt-out provision in 2018 who could be called likely to exercise the clause at present. While he hasn’t been quite as dominant as usual and has spent time on the DL for a third straight year (back issues, biceps tendinitis), it’s difficult to imagine him having to take less than that $65MM sum in free agency.

In 131 1/3 innings this season, Kershaw is sporting a 2.40 ERA with 8.7 K/9, 1.4 BB/9, 0.89 HR/9 and a 48.9 percent ground-ball rate. He hasn’t topped 200 innings since 2015, but he’s still a clearly elite starter. If he does formally opt out, the Dodgers can issue a qualifying offer, though perhaps the easiest scenario would be for Los Angeles to simply extend Kershaw’s current contract to prolong his already historic Dodgers career.

David Price, Red Sox (Four years, $127MM remaining): Price is having his best season with the Red Sox, having notched a 3.60 ERA with a strikeout per inning and 2.4 walks per nine innings pitched through 152 1/3 frames. His results have been solid, but it’s nearly impossible to imagine a scenario where he exceeds $127MM in free agency at the age of 33. Price’s Boston tenure has been rocky at times, but it seems likely that he’ll be back in the rotation next season.

[Related: Club option decisions on starting pitchers, relievers and position players]

Jason Heyward, Cubs (Five years, $106MM remaining): Declining to opt out is little more than a formality for Heyward at this point, as he hasn’t come close to living up to his $184MM contract in Chicago through the first three seasons. To his credit, though the 29-year-old has had a nice rebound effort, hitting .275/.342/.399 with above-average defense in right field. That might make the Cubs feel better about his contract moving forward, but it won’t be enough to prompt Heyward to test free agency. His contract contains a second opt-out clause following the 2019 season, at which point he’ll have four years and $86MM remaining, but that also seems like a long shot.

Elvis Andrus, Rangers (Four years, $58MM): Andrus could be considered more of a borderline call than some on this list, but he seems likelier to stay with Texas than to opt out. The 30-year-old hasn’t had a bad season, hitting .270/.322/.396 with quality defense, but his bat hasn’t been as potent as it was in 2016-17 when he hit a combined .299/.348/.457. The downturn in offensive output might not be entirely Andrus’ fault; he did incur a broken elbow when he was hit by a pitch earlier this season — an injury that caused him to miss just over two months of action. It’s easy to imagine that injury having a lingering effect on Andrus’ swing, too.

Like Heyward, Andrus has a second opt-out clause in his contract after the 2019 season. At that point, he’ll have three years and $43MM remaining on his contract. If his bat returns to its 2016-17 levels, surpassing that $43MM mark in free agency could be plausible. If Andrus opted out, he’d certainly be issued a qualifying offer — there’s no reason for the team to worry about him taking a one-year deal worth about $18MM when he just walked away from $58MM — which would only further hinder his earning power.

Yasmany Tomas, D-backs (Two years, $32.5MM remaining): Tomas clubbed 31 homers with the 2016 Diamondbacks but did so with a .315 on-base percentage and some of the worst defensive ratings of any player in the Majors — regardless of position. He’s since been outrighted off the 40-man roster and, in 371 Triple-A plate appearances this season, has 101 strikeouts against 11 walks with a .280 OBP. Suffice it to say: he’s not going anywhere.

Mark Melancon, Giants (Two years, $28MM remaining): Injuries have ruined Melancon’s first two seasons with the Giants, though he’s been excellent since returning in 2018: 2.64 ERA, 7.9K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 53.1 percent ground-ball rate in 30 2/3 innings. That performance is encouraging for the Giants as they look to 2019, but it won’t be enough to make Melancon’s camp think he can top $28MM heading into his age-34 season.

Brandon Kintzler, Cubs ($5MM player option): Kintzler’s contract technically contains a $10MM club option or a $5MM player option, but it’s clear given his dismal performance since being traded to Chicago that the team won’t be opting for that $10MM sum. Kintzler was very good with the Twins and Nationals from 2016 through this past July, but his typically excellent control has evaporated in Chicago while his hard-contact rate has skyrocketed. It’s only a sample of 11 2/3 innings, but his struggles make the option seem a fairly straightforward decision.

Eduardo Nunez, Red Sox ($5MM player option): Nunez’s deal comes with a $2MM buyout, making this effectively a $3MM decision for his camp. He’s struggled to the point that he may not even want to take that risk, though, hitting just .258/.282/.384 through 473 trips to the plate.

Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reported this week that Nunez’s option increased from $4MM to $5MM once he reached 400 plate appearances. Bradford spoke to Nunez, who acknowledged that the knee that gave out on him in the postseason last year has been a problem for him throughout 2018, though he believes he’s finally “close” to 100 percent. Perhaps a strong month and a big postseason could prompt him to again test the open market, but his overall production to this point makes the player option seem a likelier outcome.

Bartolo Colon Hopes To Pitch In 2019

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Bartolo Colon will turn 46 next May, but the veteran right-hander told reporters this week that he’s nonetheless hoping for a return to the Majors next season (link via Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News). Specifically, Colon said he’d love to return to the Rangers, though Fraley suggests that could be a long shot.

Given Colon’s recent results, it’s difficult to imagine anything other than minor league offers materializing for him in free agency this winter. While he came out of the gates with a strong 3.55 ERA and 40-to-7 K/BB ratio through his first 63 1/3 innings with the Rangers in 2018, his season has spiraled out of control. The righty has turned in a woeful 7.11 ERA over his past 15 starts with 41 strikeouts against 18 walks in 81 innings of work.

Though this is more a statement about the Rangers and their rotation woes than it is about Colon, the veteran right-hander does lead Texas with 144 1/3 innings pitched in 2018. He’s remained a fairly durable rotation piece even at 45 years of age, though his fastball is averaging a career-low 87.4 mph. Meanwhile, his 1.87 HR/9 mark is the highest he’s posted since a brief, ill-fated run with the 2009 White Sox, though surely playing at Globe Life Park in Arlington doesn’t help him in that regard. Colon’s walk rate remains pristine (1.56 BB/9), and it’s also worth noting that fielding-independent pitching metrics feel he’s performed similarly, if not better than he did in 2017 when he managed to secure a minor league pact with Texas (4.64 xFIP).

Colon already broke Juan Marichal’s record for wins by a Dominican-born pitcher earlier this season — he’s now at 247 in his career — and he’s spoken recently about wanting to top Marichal’s career innings mark as well. Colon is currently 47 1/3 frames shy of that distinction, so he won’t get there before the end of the current campaign.

It’s certainly plausible that another club would put forth a minor league offer this winter — more anecdotally, Colon has pitched for 11 different teams, placing him two teams behind Edwin Jackson’s record of 13 — but “Big Sexy” would almost certainly have to earn his way onto a 2019 roster with a more encouraging Spring Training effort.

Central Notes: Baez, Miller, Morrow, Kang, Kuhl

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Some would accuse statistically-inclined baseball fans and (in particular) writers of sapping the joy out of the game. Quite often, though, that approach to America’s Pastime offers avenues for extending the exhilaration of the game as observed in real-time. Today’s offering from Craig Edwards of Fangraphs is one such example. In it, he examines — and endeavors to value — the bewitching effects Cubs star Javy Baez seemingly has on opposing defenders when he’s buzzing around the basepaths.

Here’s more from the game’s central divisions:

  • There’s good news for the Indians on the progress of southpaw Andrew Miller, as Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer reports. The key reliever says he’s feeling good after a well-placed cortisone shot to his shoulder. That has given all involved some optimism that he’ll not only return late in the season, but will hit the ground running in time to prepare for the postseason. As Miller puts it: “I do feel it’s all in line right now and we’re getting ready to take off.” Of course, Miller’s showing the rest of the way will also be a major factor in deciding the outcome of his forthcoming trip onto the open market.
  • A compelling postseason effort last year from Brandon Morrow was no doubt fresh on the collective mind of the Cubs organization when it signed him to be the team’s next closer. Though Morrow has been outstanding, he’s now dealing with arm issues and seemingly facing a tougher path back than Miller. As Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reports, Morrow will attempt to throw from the mound on Sunday in a test that could make or break his hope to begin working toward a late-September return.
  • While there aren’t any postseason implications involved, the Pirates are hoping to get two of their players back as well, as Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette writes. Whether or not that’ll come at the MLB level isn’t yet clear, but the Bucs say they want to find “some type of competition” to end the year for infielder Jung Ho Kang and righty Chad Kuhl. Both have missed lengthy stretches, Kang with a wrist injury that arose in the wake of a an even longer layoff due to a DUI conviction and Kuhl with arm troubles. As Brink notes, it seems Kang’s option will likely be declined regardless, but the club still stands to gain information that could help dictate whether it pursues a reunion (and, if so, at what price). As for Kuhl, team director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk says the organization “would like him to get up to game intensity, game speed, before the end of the season so he has a basic general health status on the forearm and the elbow” — that is, the two areas that have caused problems for him thus far.

Tigers Release Josh Smoker

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The Tigers announced tonight that they have released lefty Josh Smoker. That leaves the club with an open 40-man roster spot.

Smoker, 29, only made one appearance with the Tigers after being claimed off waivers over the summer. The former first-round pick made a notable comeback just to reach the majors, but hasn’t found much success. In parts of three seasons, he carries a 5.35 ERA with 11.1 K/9 and 4.9 BB/9 and a hefty 1.8 HR/9.

That said, the southpaw has produced swinging strikes at a strong 11.6% rate in that span, helping to support the healthy K rate. And he has had a nice showing at Triple-A this year. In his 45 1/3 innings, split between both organizations, he has produced a 3.38 ERA with 9.9 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9.

Jose Berrios Hires Wasserman Media Group

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Twins righty Jose Berrios has hired the Wasseman Media Group to represent him, as Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press reports.

Though he is not slated to reach arbitration eligibility this offseason, Berrios may still have some contractual matters to address with the Minnesota organization. He negotiated with the club last winter, though no deal was reached, and certainly could again be targeted for an extension over the offseason to come.

Berrios, 24, has now turned in two-straight solid campaigns in Minnesota after struggling in his 2016 debut. Through 28 starts in 2018, he owns a 3.92 ERA with 9.2 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9.

Those aren’t dominant numbers, to be sure, but Berrios arguably still has some untapped upside. He has boosted his swinging-strike rate to 11.1% this year, though he’s also permitting more home runs (1.29 per nine; 13.7% HR/FB) than he did last season.

As Berardino notes, Berrios would hardly be the first 2+ service-class pitcher to contemplate a long-term deal. There’s a long tradition of contracts for such hurlers, many of which have fallen in the same general price range and structure. Where Berrios fits in that line of precedent is up for debate — and, of course, negotiation.

Berrios had previously been a client of MDR Sports Management. MLBTR’s Agency Database has been updated to reflect his new representation.

Josh Donaldson’s Agency Disputes Report Of Previous Extension Offer

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Earlier today, Fancred’s Jon Heyman reported that despite previous reports to the contrary, the Blue Jays did indeed make an extension offer to Josh Donaldson back in Spring Training — one that would have been worth more than Jake Arrieta’s three-year, $75MM free-agent deal with the Phillies. Per that report:

“[W]ord is the Jays extended an offer for more than the three-year, $75 million deal the Phillies gave to free agent pitcher Jake Arrieta, another major star older than 30. … However, word is that after Donaldson initially seemed willing to continue talks, bringing brief hope for a deal, ultimately his camp suggested a figure range that put the sides far apart enough that talks discontinued.”

Donaldson’s agent, Dan Lozano of the MVP Sports Group, took the extraordinarily rare measure of issuing an on-record statement disputing the report and questioning the motives behind it:

“Just as in February, when Jon Heyman mis-reported information ’according to friends’ of Josh Donaldson, he once again is incorrect regarding contract negotiations between Josh and the Blue Jays. The fact is that the team never extended an offer to Josh, no years or dollars were ever specifically discussed, and it’s unfair to Josh for someone to repeatedly misrepresent his business affairs citing their ’beliefs.’ This is not the first time Jon has been reckless in his reporting about an MVP Sports Group client, and I believe it’s clear his motivations have less to do with the truth than they do with his other agenda.”

Some may speculate on the possibility of semantics being utilized to downplay the reported talks here, but this type of statement from an agency — at least made in such a public, on-record manner — is rarely, if ever seen. The previous report alluded to in today’s statement from Lozano is in reference to a February report on Donaldson’s asking price in extension talks which cited “friends” of Donaldson. Donaldson felt strongly enough about the report to dispute the matter directly on Twitter.

Today’s drama aside, it’s been a nightmare of a season for Donaldson, who was recently traded to the Indians in exchange for a player to be named later — widely reported to be righty Julian Merryweather — despite the fact that he hasn’t played a game since late May due to a calf injury. Shoulder problems also shelved Donaldson early in the season and impacted his ability to throw across the diamond even when he was on the field. The earning power that Donaldson once had, when he was viewed as a potential candidate for a nine-figure contract, has largely dried up as a result. While he’ll still undoubtedly find plenty of interest this offseason, the question of whether he’ll even receive multi-year offers is up for debate. Of course, none of that was known when contract negotiations — such as they were — took place before the start of the season.

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