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MLBTR Poll: Which Top Free Agent Should The Reds Pursue?

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The Reds figure to be among the offseason’s most fascinating teams. They want to contend in 2020, plan to increase payroll, and have a few areas on the roster in need of upgrade. The lineup figures to be the main focus, as Cincinnati finished 25th in baseball in runs despite a hitter-friendly home park. More specifically, the Reds could look to bolster their catching, middle infield and corner outfield mix. Alternatively, they could return Nick Senzel to second base full-time, although they’d then be left parsing through a sparse center field market. With those needs in mind, the MLBTR staff forecast Cincinnati coming away with Yasmani Grandal and Didi Gregorius at the outset of the offseason. Grandal, of course, has since signed with the White Sox, although the Reds have been linked to Gregorius this month.

However, the club certainly doesn’t appear ready to pigeonhole itself into searching for offense. They were tied to Zack Wheeler, the number three starting pitching option on the market, this week. While bolstering a starting rotation that already projects as one of the league’s best might seem questionable for a team with so many offensive holes, there’s merit to the idea of acquiring the best players possible and sorting out the puzzle pieces later. Adding Wheeler, or one of the many other starting pitchers available, would make the Reds better, even if it doesn’t address the team’s most glaring weakness.

So where should the Reds turn? In addition to Gregorius and Wheeler, they’ve checked in on any number of free agents in the early going. To some extent, they were in on Grandal before he went to Chicago, although it isn’t clear if talks got very far. They’ve checked in on Marcell Ozuna and Nicholas Castellanos, each of whom would be a conventional fit for an offense-needy club. Given the players to whom they’ve been linked, it’s little surprise Cincinnati isn’t overly concerned about forfeiting draft pick compensation to sign a player attached to a qualifying offer.

Speculatively speaking, even Mike Moustakas could make sense, assuming Cincinnati’s front office is comfortable with him as an option at second base. The Reds’ interest in Wheeler indicates we shouldn’t entirely rule out a starter like Madison Bumgarner or Hyun-Jin Ryu, either, even if neither hurler has yet been connected to the organization.

Options abound, but it seems likely the Reds will make some notable splash this winter. Where should they turn as they look to snap a six-year playoff drought?

Poll link (answer order randomized).

Cubs Interested In Whit Merrifield

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The Cubs are showing “continued interest” in Royals’ second baseman/outfielder Whit Merrifield, reported Jon Paul Morosi of MLB Network earlier this week. The two-time reigning MLB hits leader is guaranteed just $15.25MM over the next three seasons (with a team option for a fourth) under the affordable extension he signed with Kansas City in January.

It’s not difficult to see why the Cubs are interested in Merrifield, but they (or any other suitor) will have a hard time prying him away from KC. Merrifield (31 in January) has been extremely durable and productive the past three seasons. Since the start of 2016, he’s taken 2,404 plate appearances of above-average hitting (.296/.344/.445, 109 wRC+), while chipping in elite baserunning and passable defense at multiple positions. The Cubs have an uncertain mix at Merrifield’s primary position, second base. Addison Russell is a non-tender candidate, and Ben Zobrist is a free agent. Nico Hoerner, David Bote and Robel García are promising options to varying extents, but none is a proven MLB contributor. Merrifield would be an unquestioned upgrade.

Of course, that combination of productivity and affordability has made him a staple in Kansas City, which hasn’t expressed any desire to let Merrifield go. Royals’ general manager Dayton Moore wouldn’t move Merrifield for anything less than a “crazy” offer (in the executive’s words) at July’s trade deadline. More recently, Moore admitted that no one on the roster is entirely untouchable given the club’s ongoing rebuild, although he then lauded the All-Star as a player and person, giving no indication the front office has seemingly changed course on trade discussions.

With the Royals’ resistance to trading Merrifield in the past, it seems unlikely anything will come to fruition with the Cubs or any other team in the immediate future. If Kansas City were to market Merrifield aggressively, other teams beyond Chicago would surely enter the fray. That said, it’s interesting that Theo Epstein and the rest of the Cubs’ front office have considered a Merrifield pursuit as one of the many options on the table for a team seemingly poised for a roster restructure this offseason.

Braves Sign Travis d’Arnaud

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The Braves have signed free-agent catcher Travis d’Arnaud to a two-year contract worth $16MM dollars, according to an official team announcement. The deal will pay him $8MM in both 2020 and 2021.

Travis d'Arnaud | Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

The Braves continue their busy winter, adding a position player to the healthy crop of relievers they have already inked. Between guarantees handed out to Will Smith, Chris Martin, Darren O’Day, and now d’Arnaud, the Braves are wasting no time adding upgrades to a team that came up a game short of the NLCS in 2019. In d’Arnaud, GM Alex Anthopoulos adds MLBTR’s 26th-ranked free agent on guarantee that slightly exceeds our prediction.

The contract puts a bow on what’s turned out to be a nice year and a surprising turnaround for d’Arnaud, who found himself jobless after the Mets designated him for assignment in May. After a pit stop with the Dodgers, he was dealt to the Rays and proceeded to post a .263/.323/.459 batting line for his new club, representing an integral part of the team’s playoff run. His 16 home runs matched a career-best mark, with d’Arnaud doing much of his damage against left-handers, against whom he notched a 130 wRC+.

Equally notable was d’Arnaud’s ability to stay healthy in Tampa, an issue that plagued his stint with the Mets. After he was acquired as a promising catching prospect in 2012, d’Arnaud appeared in more than 75 games in just two of six seasons with the Mets, including a 2018 season in which he missed all but four games thanks to Tommy John surgery.

As a defensive catcher, d’Arnaud is regarded as an above-average framer, though he saw his numbers in that department dip in 2019 compared to his Mets days. Baseball Savant measures his average pop time in the 55th percentile, which allowed him to throw out 29 percent of would-be base stealers in 2019, a notch above his career mark of 22 percent.

In Atlanta, d’Arnaud will join incumbent Tyler Flowers to make up a solid catching tandem that will earn a combined $12MM this year. With Braves icon Brian McCann retiring and Francisco Cervelli hitting free agency, the team found itself in need of a second option heading into the winter. We’ll see just how Brian Snitker and the Braves’ decision-makers allocate playing time between Flowers and d’Arnaud, but the bet here is that d’Arnaud settles into the primary starting role with Flowers getting into the lineup a couple times every week. Flowers’s framing prowess likely gives him the edge over d’Arnaud defensively, but his offensive track record is spotty.

With top free-agent catcher Yasmani Grandal signing with the White Sox on Thursday and d’Arnaud now off the board, teams who entered the offseason in need of catching help have seen their options thin out considerably in the blink of an eye. It wasn’t an especially deep class of free agents to begin with, and d’Arnaud was widely considered the second-best catcher on the market. The top remaining options include Robinson Chirinos, Yan Gomes, and Martin Maldonado.

Twins Looking Into Free Agent Third Basemen

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The Twins have “kicked the tires” on several free-agent third basemen, including Josh Donaldson and Todd Frazier, according to Darren Wolfson of Skor North. Speculatively, it would seem that Mike Moustakas could also belong to this group, though he wasn’t explicitly named as a target.

One member of the Twins who might not be pleased to hear this news? C.J. Cron. With Miguel Sano currently installed at the hot corner, there’s not an immediate fit there, so adding a pricey third baseman through free agency could force Sano to first base—at Cron’s expense. The 29-year-old is in his final year of arbitration eligibility, and with MLBTR projecting a $7.7MM salary for the 2020 season, he’s a candidate to be non-tendered at the December 2 deadline.

That’s not to say that Cron is not a valuable player. With a .780 OPS and 25 home runs in 125 games for the Twins, he was a nice addition last winter and $8MM is by no means unaffordable, but the front office will certainly consider whether there are other options that could match or exceed Cron’s production at a lower price. It’s the same discussion that surrounded the Rays’ decision to designate Cron for assignment after a 2018 season in which he slugged 30 home runs, rather than pay the approximate $5MM he would’ve earned in arbitration.

And with Sano expected to earn $5.9MM in his second year of arbitration eligibility and coming off a decidedly better offensive season, he may very well represent a more cost-effective replacement for Cron. After rising through the minor league ranks as a third baseman, many have projected a transition to first base in Sano’s future. And after parts of five seasons in the big leagues, it seems safe to say that Sano will never be an above-average defensive third baseman: he was credited with -5 Defensive Runs Saved in 2019, and the stat believes he has cost his team runs in every season since 2015.

The Twins have quietly amassed the financial flexibility to go after the winter’s big fish, so a player of Donaldson’s caliber shouldn’t be out of the question for Minnesota. That said, they likely won’t be players for the best option on the market, Anthony Rendon. Nonetheless, if Cron is indeed non-tendered, the club would find itself comfortably below 2019’s $120MM Opening Day payroll, so the Twins shouldn’t be financially precluded from bringing in Donaldson on the three-year, $75MM deal that MLBTR projected for him. Still, there’s an argument to be made that those resources ought to be allocated to the starting rotation, which is a glaring area of weakness after the loss of Kyle Gibson and Michael Pineda to free agency.

As Wolfson mentions, the team has also considered giving catcher Mitch Garver increased reps at first base. After an offensive breakout in which he hit 31 home runs in just 311 at-bats, one would think his bat could play there. Wolfson is quick to note, however, that that doesn’t constitute a full-time position change for Garver—of course, such a move would only diminish his comparative offensive value, given the dearth of slugging catchers. The Twins still think of him first and foremost as a catcher (indeed, Garver made strides as a defensive catcher this year after a rocky start to his career), though decreasing his workload behind the plate would allow the team to get his bat in the lineup for more games throughout the season. He was part of a formidable timeshare with Jason Castro in 2019, and the Twins seem reluctant to pencil in a single catcher for 130+ games in 2020, so a similar arrangement (whether with Castro, who’s a free agent, or a newcomer) could be in order this year.

Rays Continuing Talks With Travis D’Arnaud

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Travis d’Arnaud provided an enormous boost in the Rays’ run to the ALDS last season, and though d’Arnaud is a free agent, the relationship between the catcher and his former team may not yet be a thing of the past.  Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports that d’Arnaud and the Rays “remain in talks” about a potential new contract.

After being cast off by both the Mets and Dodgers last May, d’Arnaud got his career back on track over 92 games and 365 plate appearances in Tampa.  D’Arnaud hit .263/.323/.459 with 16 homers in a Rays uniform and also managed to stay healthy, which is no small feat considering his injury-plagued history.  It was enough for MLBTR to rank d’Arnaud as the second-best catcher available in this year’s free agent market (and 26th overall on our list of the top 50 free agents), with a projected contract of two years and $14MM.

Now that Yasmani Grandal has made an unexpectedly early exit from the market, however, d’Arnaud’s stock could very well rise.  Grandal signed a four-year, $73MM deal with the White Sox, a team that wasn’t seen as one of the prime candidates to pursue catching since James McCann was already on the roster.  That leaves the most catcher-needy teams (such as the Brewers, Rangers, Angels, Astros, Reds, Nationals, Braves, and Rays) all still looking for help behind the plate.

It doesn’t necessarily bode well for the Rays if the d’Arnaud market turns into a bidding war, though it’s probably a stretch to imagine his price getting unusually high given his age (31 on Opening Day) and the long list of injuries on his resume.  If the Rays truly feel that d’Arnaud just needed a change of scenery away from New York and can now enjoy a fairly stable playing career, they might feel inclined to go slightly beyond their usual financial comfort zone in the name of finally solidifying their longstanding issues at catcher, and because Tampa Bay is intent on making a deeper postseason run in 2020.  Until d’Arnaud is actually signed to another team, it certainly makes sense for the Rays to keep the lines of communication open between the two sides to see if an acceptable price point can be found.

The Rays do have in-house catching options in Mike Zunino and Michael Perez, though Zunino’s struggles in 2019 paved the way for d’Arnaud to assume everyday duties.  Zunino is also projected to earn $4.9MM in arbitration this winter, and he has often been mentioned as a non-tender candidate unless the Rays were to decide they didn’t have any better options.  As Topkin notes, a decision one way or the other from d’Arnaud prior to the December 2 non-tender deadline would at least give Tampa a bit more time to decide whether to stick with Zunino or look elsewhere at catcher (or, the team could non-tender Zunino and try to re-sign him at a lower price).

Padres Hire Ryan Flaherty As Quality Control Coach

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The Padres have hired longtime utilityman Ryan Flaherty as their new quality control coach, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reports (Twitter link).  The news would seem to indicate that the 33-year-old Flaherty has decided to retire after eight Major League seasons.

As Olney notes, Flaherty will join Bobby Dickerson and Wayne Kirby as members of San Diego’s coaching staff with ties to Manny Machado.  Dickerson and Kirby were both longtime coaches with the Orioles when Machado played for the club, while Flaherty and Machado are ex-teammates.

Drafted 41st overall by the Cubs in 2008, Flaherty never suited up for the organization, as the Orioles selected him during the 2011 Rule 5 Draft.  He made his big league debut and appeared in 77 games for the O’s the next season, kicking off a six-year stint as as important and versatile member of Baltimore’s bench.

Flaherty was able to play all over the field for the Orioles, spending most of his time at second or third base and posting plus grades (as per UZR/150 and Defensive Runs Saved) for his career glovework at both positions.  Flaherty also saw significant action at shortstop, first base, and both corner outfield slots, plus he even tossed an inning of mop-up relief work during an August 2016 game.

With only a .215/.284/.345 slash line and 37 home runs over 1474 career plate appearances, Flaherty wasn’t known much for his bat, though he took some nice swings during Baltimore’s playoff runs in 2012 and 2014.  Over those two Octobers, Flaherty posted an .830 OPS and two homers over 36 PA.  Flaherty is the first player born in Maine to ever hit a home run in an MLB postseason game.

Flaherty spent his last two seasons with the Braves in 2018 (reaching the postseason again), and then with the Indians last season, spending much of the year at Triple-A Columbus and appearing in only 14 games with the Tribe.  He’ll hang up his glove after 547 MLB games over eight seasons, and just over $6.71MM in career earnings, as per Baseball Reference.  We at MLB Trade Rumors congratulate Flaherty on his career and wish him the best as he moves into the coaching ranks.

NL Notes: Dubon, Giants, Smith, 40-Man Additions

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In trying to predict Mauricio Dubon’s upcoming role with the 2020 Giants, MLB.com’s Maria Guardado draws a comparison between the 25-year-old Dubon and utilityman Chris Taylor of the Dodgers (link). Dubon, as Guaradado points out, already showed himself capable at second and short last year after being acquired from the Brewers in exchange for Drew Pomeranz, and the 25-year-old also has a few games of center field experience dating back to his time in the 2016 Arizona Fall League. While it may be a stretch to conclude that Dubon will be able to handle the outfield’s most challenging position based on a handful of years-old appearances, it isn’t completely outlandish to think that teams may consider some unconventional routes toward manning center in 2020. After all, the free agency class at that position is rather weak, with only Brett Gardner and Shogo Akiyama projecting as possible starting options. Meanwhile, several teams seeking contention, including the Phillies, Padres, and Cubs, have obvious openings in center; the Giants, for their part, are facing some uncertainty as to their approach to Kevin Pillar this offseason. In his first 30 games of MLB action, Dubon hit .274/.306/.434 with four homers and three steals in 2019.

More notes from around the NL on a calm Saturday night…

  • Wednesday’s deadline to add players to 40-man roster’s in advance of next month’s Rule 5 Draft brought a flurry of activity, and we’ve already covered some of the more interesting veterans that were DFA’d to accommodate various roster moves. But what of the 112 players who found themselves on MLB organizational rosters for the first time? Many of them, as noted in a piece from MLB.com’s Jim Callis, are a good reminder of the labyrinthian routes s0me players have to take in order to achieve their dreams of donning big league uniforms. Callis’ list features a former prep standout who overcame addiction issues to achieve success in the minors (Phil Pfeifer of the Braves), a former Mexican League pitcher who, despite never pitching above High-A, intrigued this season with a 94-98 mph heater (Manuel Rodriguez of the Cubs), and a 2013 DR signing who may reach the bigs with a new org after previously spending a half-decade in Rookie ball (Christopher Sanchez, who arrived to the Phillies via trade from the Rays on Wednesday). They may not represent household names, but they may represent a few new names to root for.
  • Kudos to Joel Sherman of The New York Post for authoring a thoroughly interesting piece that attempts to explain why Yasmani Grandal and Will Smith, in particular, represented the first major signings of the 2019-2020 offseason (link). It was Grandal and Smith’s relatively “distinct” profiles, in Sherman’s view, that prompted the White Sox and Braves, respectively, to lunge toward early signings; while teams may be able to convince themselves, for example, that Zack Wheeler makes for a decent alternative to Stephen Strasburg or Gerrit Cole, there were no such viable alternatives to Smith, a left-handed reliever capable of pitching to both sides of the plate, or Grandal, a switch-hitting catcher who excels at both sides of the game. While the next-best lefty reliever may be Drew Pomeranz, it’s not as if teams would feel entirely comfortable with that pitcher’s comparative lack of a relief track record; same goes for Travis d’Arnaud, a player who, despite his arguable position as the market’s second-best backstop, simply doesn’t offer Grandal’s history of sustained success (or health). As Sherman touches on, Smith’s well-rounded ability, in particular, could prove to be a boon for the Braves. With next year’s introduction of a three-batter minimum rule, it’s generally impossible, at this juncture, to predict how teams might be compromised in late-inning situations. While recent years have seen a LOOGY or two stashed on every staff, pitchers like Smith figure to become increasingly valuable under the new rules, where relievers will likely have to face at least one opposite-handed batter. In 65.1 innings in 2019, the Braves’ newest addition was death on same-handed batters (.166 wOBA) but more-than-useful against righties as well (.298 wOBA).

Latest On Kwang-hyun Kim

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KBO left-hander Kwang-hyun Kim is expected to be posted by his parent club, the SK Wyverns, this offseason, and early indications are that he’ll be something of a hot commodity. Several MLB scouts are quoted in praise of Kim’s abilities in a Saturday article from Yoo Jee-ho of Yonhap News Agency, with several expressing optimism toward Kim’s chances of securing a rotation job (link). According to Jee-ho, Kim said Friday that he’d like to negotiate with teams that will give him an opportunity to start.

Three MLB scouts were quoted on the condition of anonymity in the above-linked piece, with the first evaluator opining that there will be “more than enough” teams willing to offer Kim a rotation spot (this scout also voiced a preference for Kim over Josh Lindblom, another star KBO pitcher expected to come stateside this offseason). A second scout described Kim’s slider and curve as “filthy” while placing a slightly above-average grade on the 31-year-old’s fastball. “If Kim is willing to settle for a relief role, he’ll certainly get a big league job,” said yet a third scout. “He could be a starter on a middling team.”

Kim’s own stated preference toward starting should help determine his ultimate destination. Yesterday, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic relayed that the Mets, Royals, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, and Cubs were among teams showing early interest. All of those teams could use another good arm on hand (who couldn’t?), but the Dodgers, in particular, don’t stand out as a team in dire need of starting depth. The club’s young pitching, to say nothing of veterans like Clayton Kershaw and Kenta Maeda, would seem to leave their rotation well spoken for, but it’s amusing to ponder if LA could allow Hyun-Jin Ryu, another former left-handed star of the KBO, to walk while securing Kim as a speculative starting replacement.

The Diamondbacks, meanwhile, certainly profile as a recently middle-of-the-pack team that has shown a willingness to gamble on the ability of a pitcher to translate their success to American soil. It was just last offseason that GM Mike Hazen signed pitcher Merrill Kelly to a two-year, $5.5MM guaranteed contract with consecutive club options valued at $4.25MM and $5.25MM. Like Kim, Kelly isn’t a particularly hard thrower, with a fastball sitting around 92 mph, but he was still able to parlay a four-year run of KBO success into a multi-year contract followed by a generally acceptable 2019 rookie year (4.42 ERA across 32 starts). The ’Backs can’t be described as an especially pitching-needy team, but recent rumors around the name of lefty Robbie Ray could foreshadow an upcoming job opening in the Arizona rotation.

Kim threw to a  2.51 ERA in 191.1 innings with the Wyverns in 2019, continuing a career that, aside from a 2017 Tommy John procedure, has largely been immaculate. Since debuting in 2007 at the age of 18, the left-hander owns a 3.27 ERA with 7.8 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 in 1,673 2/3 career innings. Though Kim was unable to come to an accord with the Padres after his posting in 2014, it’s beginning to appear that his continued success, combined with a particularly pitching-hungry free-agent market, could soon lead to his long-awaited MLB debut.

Quick Hits: Reddick, Cubs, Betts, Attendance

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A few quick items from around the game…

  • Astros outfielder Josh Reddick underwent arthroscopic surgery on his left shoulder AC joint on Friday, according to a tweet from Jake Kaplan of The Athletic (link). Despite the apparently ailing shoulder, Reddick managed to appear in 151 games last season, his seventh full go-around in the majors. Reddick is expected to be ready for Spring Training, on the heels of a rather tepid 2019 that saw him hit .275/.319/.409 (94 wRC+) while grading out as a below-average regular on the whole (1.1 fWAR). After falling short in this year’s Fall Classic, it will be interesting to see what the club does with regard to Reddick. The 32-year-old is due one more season of $13MM salary before hitting free agency next offseason, so it’s not as if a trade is a likely scenario. Still, Reddick’s spot in the outfield, along with the club’s current vacancy at catcher, strikes this writer as an area of potential improvement for club president of baseball ops Jeff Luhnow to explore this winter. At the least, it will be interesting to see how Reddick’s 2020 playing time is impacted by promising in-house youngster Kyle Tucker.
  • Earlier today we brought news of the Yankees’ hire of Rachel Balkovec, 32, to a minor league hitting coach role. According to Jordan Bastian of MLB.com, it appears the Cubs have also hired a 32-year-old Rachel with an impressive resume to their player development corps, with Bastian relaying that Marshall alum Rachel Folden will now serve as the lead hitting lab tech and fourth coach for Chicago’s Rookie League Mesa affiliate (link). Folden comes to the Cubs with experience instructing baseball and softball players “based on biomechanics, science, technology and data” via her own fastpitch instructional enterprise. Folden’s primary connection to the Cubs comes through Justin Stone, Chicago’s new director of hitting, who previously deployed Folden as a hitting consultant at his own Elite Baseball Training academy. Stone, commenting on her hire, described Folden as the “perfect person” to cross the implicit barriers that have long sidelined professionals like Balkovec and Folden.
  • Earlier this winter, Red Sox team president and CEO Sam Kennedy said his club would “continue to engage” with the representatives of outfielder Mookie Betts in regard to extension talks, but Kennedy allowed on Friday that those talks have yet to begin, as noted in an article from Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com (link). While new chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and GM Brian O’Halloran met with Betts’ reps from VC Sports during the GM Meetings last week, those talks are said to have been of a mostly informal nature. Kennedy had reiterated his desire to keep Betts in a Red Sox uniform several times this offseason, and it’s hardly unexpected that Bloom may still be getting a handle on the broadest aspects of his new role. Betts is projected to make $27.7MM this offseason in his final pass through arbitration and has long proclaimed a desire to test free agency.
  • MLB attendance slipped 1.5 percent in 2019, adding to a cumulative 8.5 percent drop dating back to 2012. Joe Sheehan of Baseball America places much of the blame for this attendance swoon at the doorstep of the “rebuilding processes that are leading to unwatchable baseball”. As Sheehan notes, the Phillies, Twins, Reds, and Padres all saw attendance increases after making a few impact additions last offseason, while even winning teams like the Indians saw fewer passes through the turnstiles after largely standing pat in the winter of 2018-2019. Of course, it’s also worth noting, by my own addition, that several of the teams flagging in the attendance category also operate in some of the smallest and least economically flourishing metropolitan markets (although aspects of revenue sharing, of course, help to mitigate those factors).

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