Kwang-Hyun Kim

NL Central Notes: Castellanos, Reds, Reynolds, Cardinals, Pujols, Kim

By Mark Polishuk | March 12, 2022 at 4:26pm CDT

The bullpen, a fifth starter, bench help, and backup catching were cited by Reds GM Nick Krall as possible target areas, Krall told The Cincinnati Enquirer’s Bobby Nightengale and other reporters, and the Reds could turn to either Major League or minor league free agents to address any of those needs. In regards to one particular prominent free agent, Krall seemed to close the door on the chances of Nick Castellanos returning to Cincinnati, saying “we have not been engaged with his representatives.”

It doesn’t count as any big surprise that Castellanos will be moving on, since he was looking for a hefty new contract pre-lockout, and the Reds’ offseason moves have thus far been geared towards cutting and managing payroll (while still making some effort to contend for a playoff spot). Since Castellanos rejected the Reds’ qualifying offer and because Cincinnati is a revenue-sharing recipient, the team stands to receive an extra pick after the first round of the 2022 draft should Castellanos sign elsewhere for more than $50MM.

Kwang-Hyun Kim Signs Four-Year Deal With KBO’s SSG Landers

By Anthony Franco | March 7, 2022 at 7:07pm CDT

Kwang-Hyun Kim is returning to South Korea. The former Cardinals southpaw has a four-year deal with the SSG Landers, his former team in the Korea Baseball Organization (relayed by Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap). He receives a guarantee of approximately $12.3MM.

Daniel Kim reported this morning the Landers had tendered a status check on the southpaw. That indicated they were interested in bringing the Seoul native back to South Korea, and he and the team wrapped up a deal fairly quickly thereafter. Kim starred for the Landers (then known as the SK Wyverns) for the entirety of his career before making the jump to MLB over the 2019-20 offseason.

He’ll now return to the Incheon-based club, with whom he made his professional debut as an 18-year-old back in 2007. By his second season, he’d developed into a high-end starting pitcher. He posted a 2.39 ERA across 162 innings during his sophomore campaign, kicking off a stretch of three consecutive years with an ERA below 3.00. Kim didn’t quite sustain that kind of run prevention long-term, but he’d log 130+ frames with a sub-4.00 mark in five of his next eight seasons. That included a 2.51 ERA in a personal-best 190 1/3 innings in 2019, a strong showing that set the stage for him to come to North America the following winter.

The Wyverns made Kim available to MLB teams via the posting process, and he landed with the Cardinals on a two-year, $8MM deal. 2020 proved an anomalous year, as the season was delayed, shortened and played without fan attendance. Teams also had to deal with tight COVID-19 protocols, and the Cardinals’ season was put on hold for a couple weeks by a virus outbreak that necessitated a spate of late-season doubleheaders.

That was no doubt an especially stressful time for a player acclimating to a new environment and league, but Kim performed well in his first MLB season. He worked to a 1.62 ERA over 39 innings, compensating for a mediocre 15.6% strikeout rate by throwing a solid amount of strikes (7.8% walk percentage) and inducing ground-balls on over half the balls in play against him. Kim certainly benefited from the Cardinals’ stellar infield defense and an inflated 86.6% strand rate, but he also showed the makings of a capable rotation piece.

He backed that up over a greater body of work last year. Kim tallied 106 2/3 frames with a 3.46 ERA, again succeeding despite a lack of missed bats and a fastball that typically checked in around 90 MPH. His 47.4% grounder rate remained above-average, and he found success both in an early-season rotation role and in a bullpen stint after some elbow inflammation sent him to the injured list in mid-August.

Between his two seasons, Kim tallied 145 2/3 frames of 2.97 ERA ball. Fielding independent metrics (4.22 FIP and 4.89 SIERA) indicate he was probably fortunate to keep runs off the board at that clip. Yet even had his ERA been more aligned with peripherals that suggested he was a back-of-the-rotation arm, he’d have still easily outperformed the cost of the Cards’ modest investment.

In all likelihood, those will prove Kim’s career numbers at the big league level. He’s 33 years old (34 in July), so the four-year term will keep him with the Landers through his age-36 season. While it’s possible he could try to explore another jump to MLB at that point, it’s more probable he’ll play out the remainder of his career in his home country.

Kim’s return to Korea may also be the first instance of the ongoing lockout definitively leading a player to leave the majors. As recently as mid-February, it appeared as though Kim had intended to wait out the work stoppage and continue his MLB career. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored at the time, he appeared to have a shot at a multi-year deal. Kim’s ground-ball tendencies, control and excellent numbers when facing batters the first time in an outing made him an intriguing option for clubs seeking both rotation and left-handed relief help. With teams barred from communicating with major league free agents for more than three months (and counting), he’ll bypass that uncertainty and return to a familiar setting with the Landers on a long-term deal.

That’s not to say Kim “settled” for a return to Korea. His deal is worth 15.1 billion won, not coincidentally topping 15 billion won deals for Sung-bum Na and Dae-ho Lee that had previously been the largest guarantees in KBO history. Setting that record is presumably a point of pride for Kim, and he’d not have garnered a four-year guarantee had he remained in MLB. However, big league teams may have been willing to offer more than the roughly $3.075MM in average annual salary he’ll make on this deal had it been a typical offseason. A few other players have made the jump from MLB to foreign pro leagues this winter, but Kim would probably have garnered the most interest of that group had teams been able to keep in contact with his reps over the past few months.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Report: KBO’s SSG Landers Request Status Check On Kwang Hyun Kim

By Steve Adams | March 7, 2022 at 9:46am CDT

The SSG Landers of the Korea Baseball Organization have formally requested a status check on free-agent lefty Kwang Hyun Kim, tweets South Korean reporter Daniel Kim.

Teams from the Korea Baseball Organization and Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball must formally submit requests for status checks to negotiate with Major League free agents, just as MLB teams must tender status checks on a KBO or NPB free agent if they plan to pursue contract negotiations. At this point, there’s little to indicate that serious negotiations have taken place, but the fact that there’s interest is of note. Kim spent parts of 12 seasons pitching with the Landers — then named the SK Wyverns — from 2007-19 before signing a two-year, $8MM contract with the Cardinals in advance of the 2020 season.

As detailed here recently, Kim stands out as a perhaps unheralded but nevertheless intriguing post-lockout option for big league teams in need of rotation help — if he remains unsigned by that point. Kim dealt with some relatively minor injury issues this past season but has been a solid option both in the St. Louis rotation and bullpen, pitching to a 2.97 ERA with a 17.2% strikeout rate, an 8.4% walk rate and a 48.1% ground-ball rate in 145 2/3 Major League innings.

The extent to which Kim is seriously contemplating a return to South Korea at this juncture isn’t clear. He’s been dead set on continuing his MLB run since the 2021 season ended, but it’d be somewhat understandable if the ongoing lockout and lack of progress in talks at least has him mulling the possibility of returning home. He’s certainly had an odd MLB tenure, as his debut came during the shortened 2020 season (and the strict Covid-19 protocols that were in place throughout that summer) and was followed by a 2021 campaign that still began with limited fan attendance and had plenty of protocols throughout the season.

From a purely financial standpoint, it’d be most prudent to grind out the remainder of the lockout. Major League teams will offer considerably larger sums than their KBO counterparts; players on the very top end of the KBO pay scale generally earn $2MM to $2.5MM annually. Back in December, outfielder Sung-bum Na signed a six-year deal worth roughly $12.6MM total, which marked the largest deal in KBO history. Based on the fact that Kim earned $4MM annually with the Cardinals before he’d had any success in the Majors, he ought to be able to command a decidedly larger sum this time around if he’s willing to wait things out.

It’s certainly possible that Kim could settle for a one-year deal in a familiar setting with his old teammates, then aim for a return effort next winter. However, he’d be 34 years old at that point, and he’d run the risk of an injury or downturn in performance against KBO lineups — either of which could considerably weigh down his earning power.

An Under-The-Radar Free Agent Option For Teams Seeking Rotation Help

By Steve Adams | February 17, 2022 at 6:33pm CDT

The 2021-22 free agent market was highlighted by a historically talented group of shortstops, an unusually deep collection of starting pitchers and a good deal of power bats at the outfield and infield corners. This winter’s collection of free agents is the strongest in recent memory and quite likely the strongest we’ll see for a good while. Look ahead to the 2022-23 class, and while there are certainly a few star names, it pales in comparison to this year’s group.

With any deep free agent class, there are bound to be some names who slip through the cracks or simply don’t draw much in the way of appreciation or attention. We try to minimize this each offseason when ranking our Top 50 free agents and putting forth contract predictions, highlighting a handful of “honorable mentions” who seem likely to secure decent free-agent deals even though we’ve left them sitting outside the top 50. Even still, there’s usually a name or two we wind up wishing we’d considered more closely.

Of the non-top-50, non-honorable-mention free agents in this year’s class, former Cardinals lefty Kwang Hyun Kim fits that bill for me. A combination of age, lack of velocity and lack of bulk innings made us feel comfortable leaving him off the Top 50, but taking a retrospective look at his numbers, I’m not so sure that should’ve been the case. I’ve been asked a few times in recent chats here on MLBTR whether Kim was contemplating a return to the Korea Baseball Organization in light of the MLB lockout. My understanding is that he fully intends to continue on in the Majors and sign with a big league club whenever the transaction freeze lifts.

A very surface-level glance at Kim reveals a solid set of numbers. He’s pitched in 145 2/3 Major League innings, notched a 2.97 earned run average and kept the ball on the ground at a 48.1% clip. Kim doesn’t boast elite command, but his 8.4% walk rate is a bit better than the league-average 8.7%. He’s well below average in terms of strikeout rate (17.2% versus the league-average 23.2%), but the bottom-line results are there.

Had he remained healthier and worked a full season of innings, Kim would likely have a bit more buzz. That didn’t happen, however. He missed a portion of Spring Training and the first three weeks of the season due to a back injury — an issue that sent him to the injured list for another 10-day spell in mid-June. Kim later spent another two and a half weeks on the injured list owing to some elbow inflammation. It proved minor, but the Cardinals picked up a pair of veterans at the deadline (J.A. Happ and Jon Lester) and welcomed back several other injured starters while Kim was on the mend. He did not make a minor league rehab start despite pitching just once over a month-long period, and the Cards moved him to the bullpen when activating him in late August.

The other red flags on Kim were an 89.4 mph fastball and a sub-par strikeout rate led to questionable fielding-independent pitching marks; metrics like FIP (4.34), xERA (4.48), xFIP (4.70) and SIERA (4.85) all pegged Kim as more of a mid-4.00s type of pitcher. The sub-3.00 ERA he’s posted was clearly aided by an elite Cardinals defense, but he also created some of his own luck by limiting hard contact, keeping the ball on the ground and inducing pop-ups at an above-average rate.

Kim rates comfortably above average in terms of average exit velocity, hard-hit percentage and barrel percentage. He also has a penchant for surprising hitters, as his 18% called-strike rate tied him with names like Walker Buehler, Charlie Morton and Steven Matz for the 30th-best mark among the 145 starting pitchers who’ve pitched at least 100 innings since 2020. It’s not an elite figure, but possessing the command and deception needed to freeze opponents does help Kim to offset a below-average swinging-strike rate, to an extent.

In terms of platoon splits, Kim — like most lefties — is more susceptible to right-handed opponents than lefties. That said, it hasn’t been a glaring deficiency. Lefties have posted a putrid .164/.263/.224 slash against him in 133 plate appearances, while righties are at a relatively tepid .248/.310/.397 output. Kim has only fanned a tiny 14.6% of right-handed opponents against a hefty 26.3% of the lefties he’s faced, but his walk rate, ground-ball rate and pop-up rate are all actually much better against right-handed opponents.

Some clubs may be intrigued by Kim as a reliever, given that he’s dominated opponents the first trip through a batting order, yielding a lowly .192/.260/.314 batting line the first time facing a hitter on a given day. That spikes to .290/.354/.425 the second time through a lineup, which is an obvious concern. Then again, Kim’s opponents have hit just .184/.253/.316 in 83 plate appearances when facing him for a third time, so it’s not as though he’s incapable of turning a lineup over with any success. Realistically, that third-time-through-the-order split would likely regress in a larger sample, but it’s also fair to wonder whether that second-time split might improve with more opportunities.

So, to this point, Kim has been primarily a five-inning starter — he’s completed six frames in just eight of his 28 starts — with below-average strikeout capabilities but solid command and a knack for inducing weak contact. He’s struggled a bit the second time through the order, due in no small part to a notable drop in strikeout rate in such settings, but there’s at least some reason to believe he could improve upon that when looking at his third-time splits.

It’s not necessarily an exciting package that teams should be falling over to sign, but the other reason I’ve come to expect we’ll have been light on Kim’s market is simply by looking at how the market has valued other arms this winter. Jordan Lyles can be relied upon for some bulk innings, but his results (5.60 ERA), batted-ball profile and other peripherals are all more questionable than those of Kim. He still signed for a $7MM guarantee. Michael Wacha matched that guarantee despite a third straight sub-par season. Steven Matz and Nick Martinez both beat expectations with four-year contracts — the latter being a particular surprise. The Cubs had the No. 7 waiver priority this offseason and pounced to claim Wade Miley at a year and $10MM. Miley provides more innings, but he’s two years older and, over the past few seasons, looks an awful lot like Kim on a per-inning basis.

Put more simply, it’s been a bull market for starting pitching help, and while Kim’s soft-tossing, weak-contact specialist profile isn’t necessarily a sexy one in the eyes of modern front offices, he’s managed to succeed with it to this point in his career. A team looking for a fairly steady fourth or fifth starter could do much worse than plugging in Kim for five to six innings every fifth day, and if I were reconsidering the remaining free agents on the market, I’d probably peg him for a two-year deal when the lockout lifts. Perhaps that simply won’t be in the cards — the middle class of free agents could be squeezed into some lackluster contract terms — but if he’s available on a one-year deal, it’d be a steal for the signing team.

The number of clubs still needing arms will work in the favor of Kim and other remaining free agents. The Mets still need a fifth starter, and the Mariners and Tigers are also on the hunt in that market. The Twins, Nationals and Rangers all have multiple rotation spots they’ll yet need to fill. The A’s might have a pair of starting jobs to fill, depending on their trade activity. The price tag on Kim shouldn’t be prohibitive one way or another, and the demand should get him a decent deal when all is said and done.

Admittedly, this a lengthier look than I’d normally take at a fourth starter type whose best-case scenario feels like a two-year deal. FanGraphs’ Ben Clemens predicted two years and $20MM back in November, and even after digging into Kim, I think I’m slightly lower than that figure. Still, for a pitcher who’s generated very little fanfare, Kim has a strong track record of results and, based on those first-trip-through-the-order splits, could at worst be deployed as a quality multi-inning reliever. He’ll likely prioritize a team with a clear rotation opening, which dampens the possibility of a Cardinals reunion, but there’s solid value to be had here.

Kwang-hyun Kim Activated To Work Out Of Cardinals’ Bullpen

By Anthony Franco | August 22, 2021 at 11:41am CDT

The Cardinals are activating left-hander Kwang-hyun Kim from the 10-day injured list before this afternoon’s game against the Pirates, manager Mike Shildt told reporters (including Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat). Reliever Junior Fernández is being optioned to Triple-A Memphis in a corresponding move.

Kim is moving to the bullpen, according to Shildt, who noted that the 32-year-old could immediately work as many as 45 pitches in multi-inning relief. Kim has missed a little less than two weeks with inflammation in his throwing elbow, and it seems St. Louis doesn’t want to run the risk of overworking him by plugging him back into the rotation. That means the Cardinals will continue to rely on Jack Flaherty, Adam Wainwright, Miles Mikolas, Jon Lester and J.A. Happ every fifth day.

The bullpen role will be an unfamiliar one for Kim, who has started 26 of his 27 appearances since signing with the Cards before the 2020 season. Kim’s work as a starting pitcher has been excellent, as he has a 2.84 ERA over 130 MLB innings in spite of a below-average 17.5% strikeout rate. He’s thrived by generally avoiding walks (8%) and inducing ground-balls (47.1%) while limiting hard contact. If he can continue to have that level of success in his new role, he’d be a key bullpen piece for a Cardinals team that trails the Reds and Padres by four and a half games in the race for the National League’s final playoff spot.

2021-22 Qualifying Offer Candidates

By Anthony Franco | August 20, 2021 at 10:59pm CDT

With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror and a little more than six weeks remaining in the regular season, plenty of front offices are turning their attention towards the upcoming offseason. The first notable decision for many clubs will be to decide whether to tag one or more of their top impending free agents with a qualifying offer.

As a reminder, the qualifying offer is a one-year contract offer teams can make to certain impending free agents. The precise value of the QO has yet to be calculated, but it’s determined as the average salary of the game’s 125 highest-paid players. Last season, the QO value was set at $18.9MM. If the player accepts the offer, he returns to his current team on that one-year deal. If he rejects, his previous team would receive draft pick compensation should he sign elsewhere.

Last season, six players (George Springer, Trevor Bauer, J.T. Realmuto, DJ LeMahieu, Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman) received qualifying offers. Gausman and Stroman accepted the QO, while Realmuto and LeMahieu re-signed with their current clubs as free agents. The Reds and Astros received compensatory picks (used on Jay Allen and Chayce McDermott, respectively) when Bauer and Springer departed.

The collective bargaining agreement prohibits a player from being tagged with a qualifying offer multiple times in his career. (A list of every active big leaguer who has previously received a QO is available here). Similarly, in order to be eligible, the player must have spent the entire preceding season on the same team. Players traded midseason cannot be tagged with a QO.

With the majority of the 2021 season in the books, we can take a look at the upcoming free agent class to predict which players might wind up receiving qualifying offer this winter.

Locks

Carlos Correa, Freddie Freeman, Clayton Kershaw, Robbie Ray, Carlos Rodón, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Trevor Story

This group is fairly straightforward, as there’s very little chance any of these players would accept a qualifying offer. Correa, Seager and Freeman all have MVP-caliber upside and are locks to pull in long-term deals this winter. Semien didn’t receive a QO from the A’s after a down year in 2020, took a pillow contract with the Jays for almost the value of the QO ($18MM), and has essentially replicated his 2019 form that earned him a third place finish in AL MVP voting. He should find a big multi-year deal this time around.

Story is having a bit of a down year, but there’s no doubt the Rockies will make him a qualifying offer after not trading him at the deadline. Nick Groke of the Athletic wrote this week that Colorado hasn’t given up hope of convincing him to sign a long-term extension, but that seems unlikely given Story’s own bewilderment he wasn’t moved to a contender this summer. Whether Story is willing to return to Denver or not, he’ll receive a QO.

Kershaw, Ray and Rodón will be among the top pitchers on the market. Kershaw has spent the past couple months on the injured list due to forearm soreness, but he’s expected back in September and is in the midst of another fantastic season. So long as he’s healthy, he’s a lock for a QO. Ray and Rodón both had to settle for one-year deals after poor 2020 seasons, but they’ve each been among the best pitchers in the American League this year.

Likely

Michael Conforto, Jon Gray, Yusei Kikuchi, Eduardo Rodríguez, Noah Syndergaard, Chris Taylor, Justin Verlander

Over the past two seasons, Taylor has somewhat quietly been one of the game’s top 25 qualified hitters by measure of wRC+ and he’s versatile enough to cover any non-catcher position on the diamond. He’s not a true everyday player at any one spot and he’s making contact at a career-worst rate this season, so he falls just short of being an absolute lock for a QO. But the Dodgers would be as willing as any team to shoulder a significant one-year salary were Taylor to accept, and his body of work should be sufficient to warrant a multi-year deal regardless.

The Mets’ players in this group are two of the more interesting free agents in the class. Conforto entered the season looking like a lock for a QO and seemingly having a chance at landing nine figures with a strong platform year. He missed a month with injury, though, and hasn’t made anywhere near his typical level of impact at the plate. He’s shown some life over the past few weeks, and between his track record and age (28), Conforto still seems a good bet to land a long-term deal.

Syndergaard was a top-of-the-rotation starter at his peak, but he hasn’t pitched since 2019 because of Tommy John surgery. He’s eyeing a September return — likely in relief, given his dwindling time to build up arm strength — and his late-season form will obviously be critical to his market. The Mets should run one of the higher payrolls in the league, and Syndergaard has the upside to be an ace if healthy, so New York still seems more likely than not to make the offer.

Similarly, Verlander has essentially missed two full seasons because of his own Tommy John procedure. That’s a scary development for a pitcher who’ll be 39 on Opening Day 2022, but he was still every bit an ace when we last saw him in 2018-19. The Astros are a win-now club that runs high payrolls, so Verlander accepting a QO wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. If he declines and signs elsewhere, Houston would recoup some much-needed draft compensation after losing their past two first-round picks as punishment for the sign-stealing scandal.

Colorado reportedly showed even less interest in trading Gray than they did with Story at the deadline. There’s apparently mutual interest about working out a multi-year extension, and the QO could serve as a temporary measure to keep Gray in Denver while the Rockies and Gray’s representatives work on a long-term deal.

Rodríguez has bounced back to take the ball every fifth day this year after a scary bout with myocarditis cost him all of 2020. His ERA’s pushing 5.00, but his peripherals are far better than that bottom line run prevention and the southpaw has an established track record of mid-rotation production.

The Mariners are facing a difficult decision regarding Kikuchi, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored last month. Seattle must decide whether to exercise a package deal of four successive club options at $16.5MM apiece (essentially a four-year, $66MM extension) this winter. If the Mariners don’t exercise their four-year option, Kikuchi has a $13MM player option to return to Seattle for 2022. If both parties decline their ends, the 30-year-old would hit free agency this offseason, although the M’s could then tag Kikuchi with a qualifying offer.

Given that Kikuchi will only be a free agent if he passes on a $13MM player option, the Mariners would likely make him a QO worth a few million dollars more if it comes to that — either with the expectation he’ll decline in search of a longer-term deal, or with the hope he accepts and Seattle can keep him in the fold next season without committing themselves to the additional three years of guaranteed money.

Possible

Brandon Belt, Anthony DeSclafani, Raisel Iglesias, Charlie Morton

The Giants have plenty of payroll space this offseason and seem likely to try to keep most of this season’s core together. Belt has been one of the sport’s most productive offensive players on a rate basis over the past two years. But he’s also 33 years old, has a long injury history and is striking out at the highest rate of his career.

San Francisco bought low on DeSclafani over the winter after he had a tough 2020 season with the Reds. He’s bounced back to post a very strong 3.26 ERA, although his peripherals are closer to average and he’s benefitted from opponents’ .257 batting average on balls in play. The Giants will likely see 4/5 of their starting rotation hit free agency this winter, so they could be eager to bring DeSclafani back, even if that comes via a lofty 2022 salary.

Morton has had another productive season in his first year as a Brave, but his previous two teams (the Astros in 2018 and the Rays in 2020) let him reach free agency without making a qualifying offer despite his consistently strong track record. That’s presumably due to concerns about his past injury history and age. He’ll turn 38 this winter and might check his potential earning power by limiting himself to teams in the Southeastern part of the country — as he reportedly did last offseason. That could inspire the Braves to pass on a QO, but Morton continually reels off above-average performances, and this is an Atlanta front office that has been eager to dole out hefty single-year salaries for key veteran upgrades in recent years.

Iglesias looks like the top impending free agent reliever (assuming the White Sox exercise their option over Craig Kimbrel). He’s sporting an ERA under 3.00 for the fifth time in his six seasons since moving to the bullpen, and he’s never had a single-season SIERA above 3.55. Home runs have been an issue, but Iglesias gets above-average results year in and year out and has some of the best strikeout and walk numbers in the game in 2021.

Long Shots

Mark Canha, Avisaíl García, Kwang-hyun Kim, Corey Kluber, Buster Posey, Adam Wainwright, Alex Wood

The Giants hold a $22MM club option (with a $3MM buyout) over Posey’s services for next season. If the front office is willing to commit him a significant salary, they’ll just exercise the option rather than going the QO route. Indeed, they’re reportedly planning to do exactly that (or to potentially pursue a multi-year extension with the franchise icon). Either way, there’s no real reason to involve the qualifying offer here.

Canha would be a very plausible qualifying offer candidate on many teams. He’s been a well above-average hitter and overall performer three years running and is generally one of the game’s more underrated players. The A’s, though, didn’t make a QO to either of Semien or Liam Hendriks last season. Canha’s a Bay Area native, and his age (33 in February) will cap the length of offers he receives from other clubs. Given that, it’s not hard to envision him accepting a QO if offered. The A’s, who perennially run low payrolls and will have a loaded class of arbitration-eligible players this winter, don’t seem likely to take that risk.

Wainwright has had a fantastic 2021 season, and the Cardinals figure to be motivated to keep the franchise icon in St. Louis in some capacity. But that also looked to be true after his strong 2020 campaign, and Wainwright only wound up landing a one-year, $8MM deal. He’d be well-deserved in demanding a raise over that sum to return next season, but it remains to be seen if the Cardinals would be willing to chance more than doubling his salary — particularly if they feel Wainwright’s motivated to remain in St. Louis rather than pursue the highest possible offers in free agency.

Kluber signed an $11MM deal with the Yankees last offseason after back-to-back seasons wrecked by injury. He pitched well through ten starts but has been out since late May with a shoulder strain. Kluber’s nearing a return to action, but his missing nearly three months only adds to prior concerns about his ability to handle a significant workload at this stage of his career.

Kim, García and Wood are all having strong 2021 seasons and could plausibly land solid multi-year deals this winter. Each has enough question marks that their teams don’t seem especially likely to offer a salary in the range of the qualifying offer, though. Kim doesn’t miss many bats; García has had extreme highs and lows throughout his career; Wood has a checkered injury history. García’s contract contains a $12MM club option that vests into a mutual option if he reaches 492 plate appearances this season. If that option doesn’t vest, the Brewers would obviously have no incentive to decline the option only to make a qualifying offer at a higher price point.

Opt-Out Clauses

Nolan Arenado, Nick Castellanos, J.D. Martinez

Each of Arenado (six years, $179MM), Castellanos (two years, $34MM) and Martinez (one year, $19.35MM) has significant guaranteed money remaining on their contracts but can opt out of those deals this winter. Arenado and Castellanos would be locks to reject qualifying offers if they trigger their opt-out provisions, since they’d be foregoing bigger guarantees to test the market.

Martinez’s player option is of similar enough value to the projected value of the qualifying offer that he could plausibly trigger the opt-out but then accept a QO. Even if that proved to be the case, the Red Sox would probably be happy to keep him in the middle of the lineup for another season.

Ineligible

Javier Báez (midseason trade), Kris Bryant (midseason trade), Alex Cobb (previous QO), Nelson Cruz (previous QO/midseason trade), Danny Duffy (midseason trade), Eduardo Escobar (midseason trade), Kevin Gausman (previous QO), Kendall Graveman (midseason trade), Zack Greinke (previous QO), Kenley Jansen (previous QO), Starling Marte (midseason trade), Anthony Rizzo (midseason trade), Max Scherzer (previous QO/midseason trade), Kyle Schwarber (midseason trade), Marcus Stroman (previous QO)

Injury Notes: Hoskins, Galvis, Boyd, LeBlanc, Kim

By Darragh McDonald | August 15, 2021 at 9:33am CDT

Rhys Hoskins isn’t expected to come off the injured list when first eligible, per Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia. The minimum 10-day stint will have elapsed by Tuesday, but Hoskins still hasn’t tested his injured groin by running. The first baseman just received a cortisone injection to try and aid his recovery and is still aiming to be activated at some point this week. Every game is crucial for the Phillies as they are in the thick of a three-team race for the AL East crown. They are currently tied with Atlanta for the top spot, with the Mets just 1 1/2 games behind. Hoskins is having another fine season at the plate, slashing .244/.332/.509, which is 23% better than league average by wRC+.

Salisbury also notes that Freddy Galvis has started taking batting practice and is progressing towards a rehab stint. The infielder was on the injured list with a quad strain when the Orioles traded him to the Phillies before the deadline. Before getting hurt, he was slashing .249/.306/.414. That amounts to a wRC+ of 97, which is below league average but a career high for Galvis. Despite never being a huge offensive threat, he’s long been a valuable contributor because of his excellent glovework.

Other notes from around the league…

Matthew Boyd is rehabbing and hoping to return before the end of August, reports Chris McCosky of The Detroit News. The lefty was placed on the IL in mid-June with a triceps issue but now potentially a few weeks away from returning. Boyd has a year of team control remaining before reaching free agency and figures to be an important part of the Tigers’ 2022 rotation as they look to move from rebuilding to contending. If he stays on track with his rehab, he could get more than a month’s worth of work in before the offseason. Prior to the injury, Boyd had an ERA of 3.44 on the year through 70 2/3 innings.
Neither Wade LeBlanc nor Kwang Hyun Kim are expected to come off the IL as soon as they are eligible, according to Cardinals manager Mike Shildt, per Jeff Jones of MLB.com. Kim, who has a 3.36 ERA in 91 innings this season, has been out since August 9th with elbow inflammation. LeBlanc, who also is dealing with an elbow issue, has an ERA of 3.61 in 42 1/3 innings for St. Louis this year. However, the rotation just welcomed Jack Flaherty back into the fold and could soon see a return of Miles Mikolas, who is currently on a rehab assignment. The club is currently 4 1/2 games behind a slumping Padres club for the final NL playoff spot, but with three teams in between them.

Cardinals Place Kwang Hyun Kim On 10-Day Injured List

By Mark Polishuk | August 10, 2021 at 7:47am CDT

The Cardinals placed left-hander Kwang Hyun Kim on the 10-day injured list yesterday due to left elbow inflammation. The placement is retroactive to August 8. Right-hander Daniel Ponce de Leon was activated from his own 10-day IL stint after missing close to seven weeks with shoulder discomfort.

This is the third time Kim has visited the IL this season, following two previous absences caused by a bad back. The southpaw has been dealing with a sore elbow for over a week, which led the Cards to give him some extra time between starts. After Kim was touched up for five runs over 2 2/3 innings against the Indians on July 28, his next start was held off until August 7 — another less-than-successful outing, as Kim allowed two runs and threw 83 pitches over four innings against the Royals.

It isn’t known if Kim could return after just a 10-day break, or if his elbow issues will require more recovery time. In the short term, St. Louis can fill the rotation spot with ace Jack Flaherty, who is expected to return from the IL this week. Miles Mikolas is also getting closer to a return after spending almost the entire season on the injured list.

Despite all the injuries and only a 18.3% strikeout rate, Kim has been effective when he has been on the mound this season, posting a 3.36 ERA over 91 innings. Now with 130 innings of Major League work to his name after two seasons, Kim has a 2.84 ERA but also with a 4.85 SIERA that reflects the lack of strikeouts and only a slightly above-average walk rate. On the plus side, Kim is good at limiting hard contact and at keeping the ball on the ground (47.1% grounder rate), making him a particularly good fit on the defensively-strong Cardinals.

Another injury absence, however, won’t help Kim’s free agent stock heading into the offseason. There was some trade buzz surrounding Kim heading into the trade deadline, though St. Louis ultimately opted against selling and made some modest rotation additions in J.A. Happ and Jon Lester. Adam Wainwright , Kim, Happ, and Lester will all be free agents, while the Cardinals aren’t expected to exercise their $17MM club option on Carlos Martinez. With all this rotation uncertainty heading into 2022, one would assume the Cardinals would have interest in re-signing Kim after his solid results of the last two years.

Carlos Martinez Undergoes Thumb Surgery

By Anthony Franco | July 19, 2021 at 10:00pm CDT

Cardinals right-hander Carlos Martínez has undergone surgery to repair a ligament tear in his right thumb, manager Mike Shildt told reporters (including Zachary Silver of MLB.com) this afternoon. Martínez was already known to be facing an extended absence — he landed on the 60-day injured list two weeks ago — but it’s nevertheless a disappointing development for the 29-year-old.

It’s not clear whether the procedure officially rules Martínez out for the remainder of the season, but that doesn’t seem to be an unreasonable assumption. If Martínez’s season is finished, it’s quite possible he’s already made his last appearance as a Cardinal. St. Louis has a $17MM club option on his services for 2022, but that’s a near lock to be bought out for $500K instead. Martínez’s performance before he suffered the injury simply hasn’t warranted that kind of financial outlay.

Martínez was a productive mid-rotation starter for much of his early career with the Cardinals. That earned him a five-year, $51MM extension in February 2017 that guaranteed he’d spend at least the first nine years of his big league career in St. Louis. Martínez continued to pitch at a high level through 2019 (spending that season in the bullpen) but has struggled mightily over the last two years. Between 2020-21, Martínez has pitched to a 6.95 ERA/5.18 FIP over 102 1/3 innings, with his once-strong strikeout numbers tailing off.

A lack of starting pitching depth has plagued the Cardinals all season, thanks in part to Martínez’s struggles. St. Louis was known to be on the hunt for pitching help last month, but it’s not clear the club will be in position to buy at the trade deadline. The Cardinals entered play tonight with a 46-47 record; that’s tied with the Cubs for third place in the NL Central, nine games back of the division-leading Brewers. They’re 7.5 back in the Wild Card race, with the Reds and Phillies also between them and the Padres, who currently hold the final playoff position.

Even if the Cardinals don’t wind up being buyers, the organization looks more likely to stand pat in advance of the July 30 trade deadline than orchestrate any type of sell off. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak suggested last weekend selling wasn’t on the table.

As Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat explores, there wouldn’t be a ton of obvious trade candidates on the St. Louis roster even if Mozeliak were more amenable to moving some veterans. A majority of the club’s key players are under team control through 2022, and St. Louis is certainly not about to embark on a full rebuild. Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright and Andrew Miller are all slated to hit free agency at the end of the season, but all three have full no-trade rights — Molina and Wainwright based on their MLB service time, Miller through the terms of his free agent contract. Trading franchise icons like Molina or Wainwright midseason probably wouldn’t be under consideration for the front office regardless.

The one player on the Cardinals who stands out as the most obvious potential trade candidate is southpaw Kwang-hyun Kim. The 32-year-old has performed well over his first two seasons since coming over from the KBO, and he’s ticketed for free agency at the end of the year. There’d surely be demand from contenders seeking pitching help, but it seems there’s a potential obstacle to any Kim deal. A source close to Kim tells Jones the left-hander might consider opting out of the rest of the season and returning to his native South Korea if the Cardinals traded him. If that’s indeed the case, it’d essentially kill any chance of him getting dealt.

Injury Notes: Voit, Haniger, Kim, Gregorius

By Anthony Franco | June 14, 2021 at 10:58am CDT

The Yankees announced yesterday first baseman Luke Voit was beginning a rehab assignment with Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. The 30-year-old has missed a little less than three weeks after suffering a Grade 2 oblique strain. It’s been an injury-marred campaign so far for Voit, who also missed the first six weeks of the season with a meniscus tear in his knee. Last season’s home run leader, Voit has only managed 50 plate appearances in between the two IL stints. His forthcoming return will be a welcome development for the Yankees, whose first baseman have hit a dreadful .176/.266/.270 in 2021. Only the Indians have gotten less offensive production at the position this season.

More injury updates from around the game:

Mariners outfielder Mitch Haniger left yesterday’s game in the first inning after fouling a ball off his left knee. It seems he’s dodged serious injury, though, as manager Scott Servais told reporters (including Corey Brock of the Athletic) he suffered a deep bone bruise but avoided any fractures. Haniger, who missed the second half of 2019 and all of 2020 due to injury, has rebounded to post a strong .259/.310/.518 line with 16 homers across 274 plate appearances this season.
The Cardinals are likely to activate lefty Kwang-hyun Kim to start tomorrow night’s game against the Marlins, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat was among those to relay. The 32-year-old went on the IL on June 5 with back stiffness, but he’s apparently in line to return after a minimal stint. Kim has tossed 40 innings of 4.05 ERA/4.29 SIERA ball this season. The St. Louis rotation has been hit hard by injuries in recent weeks, with Miles Mikolas and Jack Flaherty both landing on the IL for extended periods. That makes the rotation an obvious area to target if the Cardinals look to acquire outside help before the trade deadline.
Phillies shortstop Didi Gregorius suffered a setback in his rehab process from a right elbow impingement, manager Joe Girardi told reporters (including Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia). It doesn’t seem to be particularly worrisome, as Girardi said it was “a little stiffness and a little soreness” and that the organization is still hoping to get him back in relatively short order. It’s been a tough season for Gregorius, who hit just .229/.266/.364 in 128 plate appearances before landing on the IL last month.

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