Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

Archives for 2019

Marcell Ozuna Expected To Decline Qualifying Offer

By | at

Outfielder Marcell Ozuna intends to decline the $17.8MM qualifying offer and test the open market, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). He’s said to have received sufficient interest to believe he’ll top the QO in free agency, even with the drag of draft compensation.

Ozuna’s suitors will need to factor in some lost draft assets if they sign him; the precise hit depends upon the team. But with nearly a quarter of the MLB outfits showing some level of interest, per Heyman, it seems the circumstances will create enough bidding to get Ozuna a lengthier contract.

It’s still hard to tell just how things will shake out for a player who has some very strong attributes but also some clear demerits. And it doesn’t help that he’s entering a market filled almost to a bizarre level with roughly similar players. Fellow youthful corner outfielders Nicholas Castellanos, Avisail Garcia, and Yasiel Puig are also looking for new homes. None will be saddled with draft compensation.

While Ozuna has stung the ball repetitively in recent years, he has produced at merely above-average levels. It doesn’t take much to imagine Ozuna slugging again like he did in 2017; after all, he only just reached his 29th birthday today. But it’s also easy to view that standout campaign as a clear outlier, since he hasn’t otherwise produced consistently at anything close to a 143 wRC+ level. Plus, Ozuna’s once-strong defensive chops have taken a hit as he has lost speed and dealt with shoulder problems, though there’s still reason to hope he’ll be a capable defender for a few more years.

Here at MLBTR, we expect the market to treat Ozuna well — just perhaps not quite as well as once seemed possible. We guessed he’d take down a three-year, $45MM pact even after accounting for the draft hit, with teams such as the Giants, Marlins, Reds, Padres, Indians, Tigers, and Royals positioned as plausible contenders for his services.

Padres Intend To Focus On Trades Over Top Free Agents

By | at

12:16pm: In a follow-up piece today, Acee writes that the Friars expect to land at a payroll of $130MM to $140MM. Given the team’s existing commitments, that doesn’t leave space to tack on a top-shelf free agent.

Indeed, per Acee, the Friars simply “don’t see a way to fit another mega contract.” With Boras asking for $180MM or more for Strasburg, over a six-year term, the San Diego organization may be tapping out early. Acee does note that Zack Wheeler could still be a consideration, though he seems increasingly likely to top nine figures himself with widespread early interest.

8:16am: We know the Padres are going to do something to get better this winter — or, at least, that’s the strong indication emanating from the club — but it’s still to be seen what, when, and how GM A.J. Preller will strike. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Tribune-Review describes the sense of anticipation in the San Diego organization, explaining that top-level free-agent pursuit and/or major trades involving highly regarded prospects are likely to be pursued vigorously in the coming weeks.

Unsurprisingly, Acee views the trade market as the “most likely way” for the Friars to press the go button. While the team has pounced on major free-agent signings and is expected to explore them again — local product Stephen Strasburg is a particularly enticing possibility — the team already has quite a lot of its payroll committed.

There are still some ways to change that situation. The organization could boost its spending now that it’s ready to win. It could also utilize some of its prospect base to help move unwanted contracts off the books, thus freeing salary space to buy other players. We broke down the many factors and possibilities in our recent preview of the Friars’ offseason.

Regardless, Preller is surely exploring a wide variety of trade scenarios — and doing so with a different mandate than he has previously. Chairman Ron Fowler has already made clear his expectations for the 2020 campaign, and he explained further how the team’s strategy will change as a result.

Fowler explains that the club is now largely finished with assessment of young talent and is ready to view its prospects as “currency.” The Padres, he says, have “a lot of guys we can package and come up with what we need to be a better team that can win a lot more games in 2020, and that’s our objective.”

That statement is laden with possibilities. With loads of talent at all levels of the farm system, as well as younger MLB players that could hold appeal, the Friars have a stock of trade chips that could unlock the doors to an awful lot of quality big leaguers.

But does this mean that rival organizations can expect to command overwhelming early trade packages from the Padres? Preller says the club will stick to its guns. “We have specific value on each one of our players and a value on the guys we have a chance to trade for,” he said at the outset of the GM Meetings. If the numbers don’t match up, Preller says the club will be “patient.”

It’s an interesting mix of public statements from the San Diego brass. Preller’s “rock star” status has waxed and waned over the years; on occasion, he has delivered blockbusters. At other times, heavy rumors of big moves have simply petered out. This winter, there’s an argument for bold early action to get the jump on the market … but also for settling into the kind of plodding staring contest that has characterized the past two hot-stove seasons.

Whatever the process, one thing seems clear: when the season gets underway, Preller’s roster will need to deliver good old fashioned, actual MLB wins. The objective, per Fowler, is to “win a lot more games in 2020.” Otherwise, the San Diego organization could be forced into a much broader overhaul.

Rockies Sign Eric Stamets

By | at

The Rockies have announced a minor-league deal with infielder Eric Stamets. He’ll receive an invitation to MLB Spring Training.

Stamets, 28, was pressed into duty early in 2019 by the Indians but struggled mightily in brief MLB action. He went down on strikes in half of his 48 plate appearances and managed just a pair of hits. Stamets was ultimately dropped from the 40-man and allowed to depart at the end of the season.

The Rockies can’t expect much offense. Through over one thousand Triple-A plate appearances, Stamets carries a .230/.299/.379 slash line. But he’s obviously valued for his glovework at shortstop and ought to function as depth or perhaps challenge for a utility role in camp.

Which Pick(s) Each Team Would Forfeit By Signing A Qualified Free Agent

By | at

We looked already at the possible draft compensation that teams might recoup from losing players who decline qualifying offers. Now, we’ll take a glance at the topic from the other side of the coin: what it’ll cost other teams to sign such players.

Last week, 10 players received qualifying offers. Teams interested in signing Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner, Jake Odorizzi, Anthony Rendon, Josh Donaldson, Marcell Ozuna, Jose Abreu or Will Smith will therefore be required to forfeit draft and perhaps international bonus considerations in order to sign anyone from that bunch — assuming each of the 10 rejects that one-year, $17.8MM sum. Here’s a breakdown of the specific penalties that all 30 teams would face in signing a “qualified” free agent:

Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Red Sox, Yankees, Cubs

If any of these three teams signs a qualified free agent, they will forfeit their second- and fifth-highest selections in next summer’s draft. They’d all also see $1MM docked from their 2020-21 international bonus pools. The Red Sox, in particular, seem more intent on shedding payroll and lowering their luxury hit than on adding a high-end free agent. Signing a second qualified free agent would mean then surrendering their third- and sixth-highest selections as well as an additional $1MM in international funds.

Revenue Sharing Recipients:  Diamondbacks, Orioles, Reds, Indians, Rockies, Tigers, Royals, Marlins, Brewers, Twins, Athletics, Pirates, Padres, Mariners, Rays

These 16 teams received revenue sharing and did not exceed the competitive balance tax during the 2019 season. As such, they’d forfeit “only” their third-highest selection in the 2020 draft by signing a qualified free agent. Signing a second qualified free agent would require forfeiting their fourth-highest pick. A third would mean their fifth-highest pick (and so on). Revenue-sharing recipients who do not cross the luxury threshold face the smallest penalty in signing a qualified free agent.

All Other Clubs: Nationals, White Sox, Astros, Braves, Dodgers, Angels, Mets, Yankees, Phillies, Giants, Cardinals, Rangers, Blue Jays

These 12 remaining teams would forfeit their second-highest pick and and have their international signing bonus pool reduced by $500K upon signing a qualified free agent. At 67-95, the Blue Jays had the worst record among this group, meaning it’d be most costly (in terms of amateur talent acquisition capital) for them to sign a qualified free agent. However, GM Ross Atkins has said since the season ended that such concerns won’t deter the Jays from pursuing qualified free agents.

For teams in this group, signing a second qualified free agent would mean punting next year’s third-highest selection and an additional $500K. A third would mean parting with the fourth-highest pick and another $500K (and so on).

—

While those penalties surely count for something, it’s worth reminding that they’re also not as steep as some clubs like to portray. Each team’s top overall selection is protected, and the highest draft choice that’d theoretically be forfeited would be the Cardinals’ Competitive Balance (Round A) selection, which would come in after the first round and after all of the compensatory picks for these free-agent losses. Competitive Balance Round A in 2019 spanned pick Nos. 35-41, and the slot value of those selections ranged from $2.1MM (No. 35) to $1.81MM (No. 41).

With 10 QOs this year, that compensatory round will be longer. Most teams with a Competitive Balance draft pick next season (barring trades of those picks, which are the only draft choices eligible to be traded) will fall into the “revenue sharing recipient” bucket, meaning their Round A picks would be protected. If the Cardinals pass on a qualified free agent, then the Jays and their second-round pick (likely in the mid-40s) would face the largest potential penalty.

MLBTR Readers Predict Teams For Top 10 Free Agents

By | at

MLBTR’s free agent prediction contest closed last night.  6,886 people entered the contest.  Below we’ve listed where our readers think each of the top 10 free agents is going.  (Curious about the wisdom of the crowd last year?  Click here).

1.  Gerrit Cole – Angels (66.7%), Yankees (15.6%), Dodgers (4.8%), Phillies (3.1%), Astros (3.0%), Padres (2.5%), Giants (1.0%)

2. Anthony Rendon – Nationals (60.1%), Rangers (16.4%), Dodgers (8.2%), Phillies (3.9%), Braves (2.3%), White Sox (1.8%), Angels (1.4%), Mets (1.1%), Cardinals (1.1%)

3.  Stephen Strasburg – Nationals (52.3%), Padres (28.4%), Yankees (5.6%), Angels (3.8%), Phillies (2.5%), Dodgers (2.1%)

4.  Zack Wheeler – Phillies (19.1%), Yankees (15.4%), Astros (10.4%), Angels (7.2%), Twins (6.8%), Padres (5.6%), Braves (5.3%), Mets (5.0%), Brewers (3.8%), White Sox (3.4%), Dodgers (2.8%), Cubs (2.4%), Rangers (2.4%), Giants (2.0%), Cardinals (1.9%), Nationals (1.7%), Red Sox (1.2%), Blue Jays (1.0%)

5.  Josh Donaldson – Braves (40.7%), Rangers (24.1%), Phillies (9.6%), Nationals (5.4%), Cardinals (4.9%), Brewers (3.5%), Angels (2.3%), Mets (1.8%), White Sox (1.3%)

6.  Madison Bumgarner – Braves (39.3%), Giants (11.4%), Twins (10.2%), Yankees (7.1%), Phillies (5.6%), Brewers (3.6%), Padres (3.5%), Angels (3.2%), Cardinals (2.8%), Rangers (2.5%), Astros (2.4%), Cubs (1.5%), Nationals (1.3%), White Sox (1.1%), Dodgers (1.1%)

7.  Yasmani Grandal – Reds (28.9%), Brewers (18.1%), Braves (7.3%), Mets (6.9%), Angels (6.4%), Astros (6.2%), White Sox (5.6%), Rangers (3.5%), Nationals (3.4%), Rays (1.6%), Dodgers (1.5%), Cubs (1.4%), Red Sox (1.2%), Rockies (1.1%), Padres (1.0%)

8.  Nicholas Castellanos – White Sox (30.7%), Cubs (23.8%), Indians (6.6%), Giants (4.4%), Rangers (4.3%), Marlins (3.3%), Angels (2.8%), Cardinals (2.7%), Reds (2.2%), Rays (2.1%), Diamondbacks (1.9%), Blue Jays (1.7%), Brewers (1.4%), Mets (1.4%), Twins (1.3%), Phillies (1.2%), Braves (1.2%), Padres (1.1%)

9.  Hyun-Jin Ryu – Dodgers (46.5%), Rangers (8.7%), Angels (6.2%), Yankees (5.8%), Twins (4.5%), Padres (3.9%), Phillies (3.7%), Mariners (2.8%), Brewers (2.6%), Giants (2.5%), Astros (1.8%), Cubs (1.6%), Braves (1.4%), Cardinals (1.1%)

10.  Jake Odorizzi – Twins (43.5%), Brewers (6.2%), Phillies (5.3%), Astros (3.9%), Yankees (3.4%), Angels (3.4%), Cardinals (3.2%), White Sox (3.1%), Rangers (3.0%), Cubs (2.7%), Padres (2.5%), Blue Jays (2.2%), Mets (2.1%), Braves (1.8%), Nationals (1.6%), Giants (1.6%), Rays (1.5%), Athletics (1.4%), Diamondbacks (1.3%), Dodgers (1.1%), Red Sox (1.1%)

Draft Compensation For 8 Teams That Could Lose Qualified Free Agents

By | at

Eight teams issued qualifying offers this year to ten players, with the Nationals and Giants handing out two apiece. Teams issuing the $17.8MM offer must be comfortable with the receiving player accepting, as it isn’t possible to trade such a player (absent consent) until the middle of the season. But in most cases, the offer is given with the expectation it will be declined, thus allowing the issuing team to receive a compensatory draft selection if the player signs with a new club.

As with draft forfeitures, draft compensation is largely tied to the financial status of the team losing the player. And in 2019, seven of the eight teams that issued qualifying offers fall into the same bucket: teams that neither exceeded the luxury threshold nor received revenue-sharing benefits. This applies to the Astros, Nationals, Giants, Mets, Cardinals, White Sox and Braves. In such cases, the default compensation for losing a qualified free agent is applied.

In other words, if any of Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Anthony Rendon, Madison Bumgarner, Will Smith, Zack Wheeler, Marcell Ozuna, Jose Abreu or Josh Donaldson signs with a new club, their former team will receive a compensatory pick between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3 of the 2020 draft. Those selections would likely fall in the upper 70s and low 80s. Slot values in that range of the 2019 draft checked in between $730K and $700K. The Nationals and Giants, then, could add a pair of Top 100 picks and roughly $1.5MM worth of additional pool money each if they lose both of their qualified free agents.

The lone team that stands to gain a potential pick at the end of the first round would be the Twins, who issued a qualifying offer to Jake Odorizzi. Minnesota is a revenue-sharing recipient that did not exceed the luxury threshold, thus entitling the Twins to the highest level of free-agent compensation possible … if Odorizzi signs for a guaranteed $50MM or more. If Odorizzi’s total guarantees are $49.9MM or lower, the Twins would receive the same level of pick as the other seven teams who issued qualifying offers: between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3.

Of course, if any of the players who received qualifying offers either accept the offer or re-sign with their 2019 clubs on a new multi-year deal, no draft compensation will be awarded to that team at all.

Blue Jays Notes: Gurriel, Starters, Tepera

By | at

The latest on Toronto…

  • The Blue Jays could consider trading outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr., “especially if it brings the right rotation arm back,” Scott Mitchell of TSN tweets. The 26-year-old Gurriel just put up an impressive season at the plate, having batted .277/.327/.541 with 20 home runs in 343 attempts. The former middle infielder also fared decently in his debut as a major league outfielder, as Gurriel logged minus-2 Defensive Runs Saved with a plus-0.2 Ultimate Zone Rating across 532 innings in left. Between the promising production Gurriel registered in 2019 and his team-friendly contract (he’s owed just $15.9MM through 2023), it seems likely he’d draw plenty of interest if Toronto were to market him.
  • The Blue Jays already swung a trade for a starter earlier this month, acquiring right-hander Chase Anderson from the Brewers. While the Jays could continue to explore that route for much-needed rotation help, it also wouldn’t be a surprise to see the club pick up help via free agency. President of baseball operations Mark Shapiro has indicated the Jays have interest in the best starter available, Gerrit Cole, but a match there doesn’t look realistic. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet runs down some more likely possibilities, naming an array of starters whom Toronto could pursue. Zack Wheeler and Jake Odorizzi are a couple on the higher end of the spectrum, though signing either qualifying offer recipient would be expensive from a draft standpoint for the Jays. As Nicholson-Smith notes, adding one of the two could cost the Jays a top 50 pick in 2020.
  • As for how the Blue Jays could attract free agents, general manager Ross Atkins contends (via Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi): “The agility of our roster, the depth of our system, the financial flexibility that we have, the leadership of (manager) Charlie Montoyo and the environment of our clubhouse are all very attractive.” Gregor Chisholm of the Toronto Star argues now is the time for Atkins and the Jays to use their financial flexibility to court Cole or Stephen Strasburg, but he admits ownership – Rogers Communications – would likely stand in the way.
  • Reliever Ryan Tepera elected free agency last week after Toronto designated him for assignment, though his Jays tenure might not be done. On the possibility of re-signing Tepera, Atkins said (via Nicholson-Smith): “We maintain interest in him. If there’s a way for him to pitch for the Blue Jays again, we’ll absolutely make that happen.” The 32-year-old Tepera was an important part of the team’sbullpen from 2015-18, but elbow problems hampered him during a 21 2/3-inning 2019 in which he pitched to a 4.98 ERA.

Luke Gregerson, Tony Sipp Hope To Pitch In 2020

By | at

Relievers Luke Gregerson and Tony Sipp sat out for large portions of the 2019 season, but that doesn’t mean either veteran is ready to call it quits. Gregerson and Sipp hope to land contracts heading into 2020, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports.

The 35-year-old Gregerson has been especially good since he debuted in the majors in 2009, as his lifetime 3.15 ERA helps illustrate. But injuries have played a key part in stalling the right-hander’s career during the past couple seasons. Gregerson signed a two-year, $11MM contract with the Cardinals entering 2018 and then combined for 18 1/3 innings of 7.36 ERA ball over parts of two seasons limited by hamstring and shoulder issues. The Cardinals released Gregerson back in May, and he hasn’t caught on elsewhere since.

Sipp, 36, had a better 2019 than Gregerson, but that may be not be saying a lot. The Nationals decided in August to cut Sipp, whom they signed to a $1.25MM guarantee going into the season. In the club’s estimation, Sipp wasn’t part of the solution in what was then a maligned bullpen. Of course, the Nats and their relief corps went on to win the World Series two-plus months later without Sipp, who turned in 21 innings of 4.71 ERA/3.55 FIP ball with 7.71 K/9 and 3.86 BB/9.

As has been the case for most of his career, the left-handed Sipp was similarly effective against same- and right-handed hitters alike in 2019. The fact that Sipp has been passable against both could help his cause in trying to secure a contract, as MLB will be going to a three-batter minimum rule in 2020 that should make it especially difficult for lefties who struggle versus righties to find work.

Padres Outright Jacob Nix

By | at

The Padres have outrighted hurler Jacob Nix to Triple-A El Paso, Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune tweets. The right-handed Nix had been in limbo since the Padres designated him for assignment Nov. 4.

It’s been a difficult several months for Nix, a promising prospect whom injuries and legal issues weighed down this season. While Nix did debut in the majors in 2018, throwing 42 1/3 innings of 7.02 ERA/5.83 FIP ball, he couldn’t improve on that uninspiring production this year because of elbow problems. The 23-year-old ended up combining for 24 1/3 frames among three minor league levels.

When Nix was healthy enough to take the mound in 2019, he was extremely effective, evidenced by his microscopic 1.85 ERA with 10.7 K/9 against 2.2 BB/9. However, an October arrest on criminal trespassing charges represented the latest setback in the former third-round pick’s career. As of now, though, Nix will stay in the San Diego organization and continue trying to work his way back to the majors.

Eddie Rosario Changes Representation

By | at

Twins outfielder Eddie Rosario has changed agencies, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports. Roc Nation Sports will represent Rosario going forward.

Rosario, who turned 28 in September, is one of many major leaguers fresh off a career-best season in the power department. Across 590 plate appearances, Rosario smashed 32 home runs, helping the Twins amass a record 307 as a team, and posted a .224 ISO – both personal highs for him since he debuted in 2015. At the same time, though, Rosario struggled more than ever to get on base. He ultimately slashed an uninspiring .276/.300/.500 owing in large part to an inability to draw walks.

While Rosario did strike out at a meager 14.6 percent clip this year, he collected free passes just 3.7 percent of the time. Considering his game’s largely predicated on putting the ball in play, the career-low .273 BABIP Rosario logged was especially deleterious. But if we’re to believe Statcast, Rosario wasn’t really the victim of poor luck in 2019. After all, there was almost no difference between his real weighted on-base average (.329) and his expected wOBA (.330).

Despite his flawed campaign, the counting stats Rosario has put up over the past few years have him in good position as he nears his second-last trip to arbitration. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Rosario will earn $8.9MM in 2020, though it’s up in the air whether the Twins will retain the three-time 20-home run hitter or attempt to move him in a trade.

Rosario’s change in representation will be reflected in MLBTR’s Agency Database, which contains agent info on thousands of Major League and Minor League players. If you see any errors or omissions within, please let us know: mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

Do not Sell or Share My Personal Information

hide arrows scroll to top