5:38 PM: Levine does take care to note that, per his sources, Harper “has had” ten-year offers with “big” proposed AAV salaries, though the tendering clubs remain as yet unknown.
3:07 PM: Earlier today, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan reported that the White Sox (and the Phillies) were willing to give Bryce Harper a contract of at least ten guaranteed years in length. However, contrasting information on Chicago’s stance has come from 670 The Score’s Bruce Levine (Twitter link), who reports that the White Sox are only willing to give Harper or Manny Machado a maximum of a seven-year contract. According to “high ranking industry sources” in contact with Levine, Passan’s report about the White Sox being open to a ten-year deal is “without any substance and flat out wrong.”
This isn’t the first time we’ve heard that the Sox weren’t quite going all-out in their pursuit of either free agent. Earlier in the offseason, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney described Chicago’s approach to Harper and Machado as “measured and modest,” noting that the club wasn’t willing to make the type of record-setting contractual commitment that both players are reportedly seeking.
Both Harper and Machado will be only 26 years old on Opening Day, and their entries into free agency at such a young age invite extended commitments considering their potential for future performance. Either player could quite reasonably still be productive in their age-35 season, when a ten-year deal would conclude. Looking at other recent long-term free agent deals, Jason Heyward (also just 26 at the time) scored an eight-year deal from the Cubs in December 2015, and Eric Hosmer (then 28 years old) got eight years from the Padres just last winter. It’s almost impossible to see Harper or Machado taking less, considering that both have delivered considerably more superstar-level production than either Heyward or Hosmer at the time of their deals.
All things considered, a seven-year pact doesn’t seem like it would even get Harper or Machado’s attention, unless it came with a very high average annual value. Even that strategy would seem uncharacteristic for the White Sox, who have never spent more than $68MM total (for Jose Abreu) on a player. The Sox do have some new revenues coming in the form of a new broadcast contract, though it would still be a big leap to see the team suddenly be willing to spend in the neighborhood of $35MM+ in average annual value to land one of the offseason’s top two free agents.
Can the Sox just spend some money for once and get one of them. Give us fans some excitement other than all these prospects
Stupid long term overpays HAVE been successful to attract future talent. Jason Werth came to Washington and helped start a winning tradition, with his contract demonstrating to other free agents their commitment to winning.
Still, Mariners did the same with Cano, and look how that ended up?
Either way, sometimes it’s worth handing out a stupid big deal just to help convince others to come to your team. White Sox would seem to be a good candidate for this.
If cano wasn’t there they would not have gotten Nelson cruz. It’s a solid arguement though
I don’t think Segura would have signed that extension without Cano there, either.
Winning tradition? They couldn’t get out of 1st round!
Clearly the padres know nothing about winning traditions… now losing yes!!
Padre didn’t make a dumb comment. He made an observation on someone’s dumb comment. No need to poke fun
Steve Garvey and Gwynn were Diegos bright spots
Adam, your comment re: Jason Werth is spot on..First, it was a way over pay, but in fact, it did jump start their winning ways..so, while the contract was off the rails, who is to say what the actual value became because of it..
Comparing the value of Harper and machado, currently the greatest 2 FAs of all time to Jayson werth is a huge stretch talent wise
Do you really think Harper and Machado are the greatest free agents of all time?
He wasn’t comparing Werth to either. The comment was a discussion about how historic overpays have an impact of future free agent signings. Why not make your New Years resolution to react less and understand more?
Lester was for me . 2016 Cubs World Series
Was thinking the same
Hyperbole much ?
why not, I don’t think he was comparing talents, but what a special signing can do for a team
Their combination of youth, talent, and accolades put both in the running. I’d be an interesting debate as there is no one universally accepted way of assigning value.
@Tigrillo Can you name any better ones?
@YourDaddy Barry Bonds. The Giants were about to move to Tampa. Bonds brought them back to respectability and they certainly wouldn’t have gotten that gorgeous stadium without him.
Reggie Jackson brought the Yankees a few World Series championships in the 70s and really brought attention to the team.
Very good examples.
Reggie Jackson, Rod Carew or maybe Carlton Fisk to name three Hall of Fame free agents
Precisely. And Cano is a good example in that it convinced others to come (as in the aforementioned Cruz) but it also demonstrates that such a plan is not fool proof. You have to add the right players around the big star (Werth/Cano) and draft well, and commit to spending– the way the Nationals did.
pay closeatte ntion to context
yes. on context
Bobby nds brought respect. Barry broughta rrogance and rouds. the srrogance remibds me of Reggie whom i loathe. But both had sweet swings
Cano’s contract, from the Mariners perspective, was a good one. The worst year he had was an OPS of 779. He only played one season with less than 150 games (albeit THIS year for ped suspension).
@Knowthemarket
Cano’s contract is good because they traded it away. It will be worth it for the Mets because it netted them Diaz, and if Cano can hit .270 with a handful of homers, he’ll have given them the value they needed from him.
Winning tradition? If you ain’t first your last
The Werth contract was necessary because of a new franchise, new management, new ownership, and a new direction in Washington.
I agree, but not really a new franchise, just a relocated one. I know; nit-picky.
dont know why the argument over the Werth signing. it was a good mive for Washington the time.
Funny thing is that for all the crap Rizzo took over the Werth deal, Werth more or less earned his money. He signed a 7/$126M and over the course of the contract, he put 14.6 fWAR. I’m not sure off hand what the cost of a win was back then but assuming $8M-$9M per win, Werth produced somewhere between $116M and $131M in value.
Agreed…they’re all regrettable within 5 years generally
You want excitement? You’re not going to get it with these overrated mercenaries. Excitement will come from developing players who really want to play for their fans.
dimitiros, please jump up your behind.
Winning is exciting. Can you name a single team that won with just internally developed players?
Winning with a bunch of ungrateful mercenaries is t that rewarding actually. Ask 97 Marlins fans, and fans of other teams that bought championships. It’s the home grown guys who often endear is to a team—rarely the pricey superstars who come by way of free agency. And I don’t buy the myth that THESE two are the difference makers on most teams. Check in with the Dodgers re Manny.
Can you name a single team that won without signing a huge FA or at the very least trading for a superstar?
Not a myth that these two are difference makers. 5+ WAR players are difference makers.
At 26 these two are just coming into their prime and every HOF has had their career year between 26- and 30 years old. That fact points to each of them having a better season coming. Harper already has a 10 WAR season under his belt and a better season coming. Machado has a 7 WAR season and a better season coming.
What is a myth is your ability to judge player talent and effect on their team.
Actually we have no idea that they’ll be great. Harper has demonstrably shown that he’s actually not great—and he’s shown that for many years now. Manny simply does not check all the boxes for a 10-year deal—certainly not the boxes most GM’s would like to see. Both have very serious question marks—hence their very small market.
As for Harper’s age, just because he’s done such and such by 26 does not at all mean he’ll keep trending upward. In fact, his seeming productivity at such a young age should give us pause, make us really question how much more he can trend upward. (In many ways he’s struggled.) In other words, just because someone came into the league really developed has not bearing on their overall upside.
As for pricey free agents, I don’t really have a problem with them—just make sure you pick the right ones. Neither one of these is the right one.
How about the 2005 White Sox? I don’t recall them signing or trading for a “superstar”. The only bonafide one on their roster that season was future HOF great Frank Thomas. He was also a non-factor in their championship when he sustained an early season injury that kept him out of action for the majority of the regular season and throughout the playoffs.
Also, while your at it perhaps you can mention or provide a small list of the 10 year deals that you feel have worked out well for the teams and fans who have committed to them.
2002 Angels
They signed jermaine dye in free agency and A.J. pyrzenski. Dye was World Series MVP
Yes dodgers in the 70s, bug red machine 70s. oakland 70s.
Mikel Grady: Nobody would label A.J. Pierzynski or Jermaine Dye as “superstars”. Both were All-Star caliber players at times. Dye had a few good all around seasons, mostly before injuries took their toll on his OF defense. He still concluded his 14 year career with only 20.3 accumulated WAR and never exceeded a 4.7 metric in any one season. In fact, he only had 3 years in which his WAR was above 2.8, 4.7 (1999) and 4.6 (2000) with the Royals and a 4.6 (2006) with the White Sox.
From what I remember they obtained speedy Podsednik and picked up Carl Everett.
Tell that to the 1996 Yankees. The heart of that team was Tino Martinez, Paul O’Neill, Wade Boggs, and Bernie Williams, only one of whom was a home grown player.
Tino and O’Neill became Yankee legends, whose excitement and enthusiasm for winning was palpable. Sure, homegrown talent is the best place to get it, but it doesn’t mean free agents and trade acquisitions can’t become the heart and soul of a championship ballclub.
Likewise, that team had NO superstar, no mega free agent like they had later with A-Rod, Giambi, Sabathia, or even Mussina. The highest salaried player on the 1996 Yankees was Cecil Fielder, acquired at the trade deadline. The longest contract on the team, I believe, was Boggs, who was on I think a 5-year deal.
Andy, I’m glad you brought up those Yankees teams. Please let’s be clear: I am by no means saying that a world championship team can or should be built simply on homegrown talent. I am rather making the claim that homegrown talent contributes to a sense of connectedness between the fans and their players. The team you mentioned was amazing (and I am an Orioles fan), filled with homegrown contributors, but the guys you mention FELT homegrown and became a part of the fabric of that team in a very connected and special way. (Late 70s and early 80s Orioles were this way.) VERY different from the Yankees teams of the 80s and 2000s. Very different than Clemens, Giambi, Mussina and so on.
The short of it is WHO a team picks up—a players character, as well as their performance/talent—makes a substantial difference. Both Manny and Bryce are flawed in very significant ways and don’t check all the boxes relative to what they’re looking for.
What does Ellsbury have to do with this?
They won’t.
Harper? Remember the two Adam’s- Dunn and Laroche. Both left handed power hitters from the (wait for it ) Washington Nationals and once they got to the league with real pitchers hit 230 and struck out almost as many times.
Machado? Why would anyone give an egocentric streak hitter 7,, 8, 9, or 10 years and at least $250 M?. MM wants to be a shortstop and the White Sox have a 25 year old all star shortstop tied up for $26 M for the next 4 years.
Stay in the bidding war, bid it up, and let some really stupid GM pay the $300M. Next year there are two really good 3rd basemen who will be FA’s with one or two fewer bidders around because they overpaid for Harper and Machado
You’re right about the two Aadams and the real pitchers in AL. Hope you’re wrong about Manny, tho.
Ego is not only a good thing, it’s a must-have in pro ball. But it must be contained and regulated, like the fire in your furnace.
Some guys never figure out how, but Manny has learned a lot about it the hard way in recent months.
He will emerge in ‘19 a better man and better teammate, which will make his next decade or so his finest years.
Get him, if at all possible.
I could easily envision Harper or Machado getting a contract with high AAV and/or early opt-outs that make the contract less than 8-10 years.
Oh yeah—and the market demand isn’t anywhere close to what most prognosticators said.
Multiple teams have reportedly made offers of 10 year deals big AAV and you say that “the market demand isn’t close to what the prognosticators said”? Do you even read the articles?
Say thank you to your daddy for highlighting the obvious
Yep I read the articles. “Multiple” means two or more. There is actually very little demand for either player. Each player has about three teams interested and of those three the majority are ambivalent about signing the player. The market is but a sliver of what most people were predicting. I stand by what I’ve said.
The bomb, dimitrios … the hydrogen bomb.
The reason there are so few teams involved with ‘Harpchado’ is they all know next year’s FA class will be the fattest ever. They’re all thus hoping they’ll be able to pick up big talent for peanuts, relatively speaking.
But with way more teams bidding on all that talent, the ensuing deals could easily get quite expensive.
Meanwhile, some smart GM will be able to sit that one out for the most part, because they’ve already secured Manny and/or Bryce for the foreseeable.
Rick Hahn is very well-versed in the games that Boras plays, and I trust that he’ll legitimately try to get these guys but won’t get swindled into doing something stupid. The vast majority of these mega deals are viewed as a mistake 1-2 years in.
The difference is that most of those contracts were for guys who are significantly older. It’s not unreasonable to expect Harper and/or Machado to still be more than productive 10 years from now; this isn’t like the Pujols contract where you hope you can get a few years of production and deal with the rest later.
Harper didn’t even have a good contract year. Take out his 1 MVP season and he is pretty much just a slightly above average outfielder.
Easily the most overrated player in the game. Came to the league over-developed for his age; hasn’t done that much actually.
Take out one year where he performed anywhere between 12 and 20 percent above career average and he’s basically Charlie Blackmon with a touch more power.
He had the 5th best OPS and OPS+ for OF in baseball last season in an off year. What does that tell you about his talent level?
How many players under 26 years old have ever had a 10 WAR season? How many of those that are NOT in the Hall of Fame? He has averaged a 4+ WAR. That is All Star level baseball. How many players have done that prior to 26 years old? Stop acting like a jealous fan and start being a baseball fan.
He has never come close to that 10 WAR again. If you average out the other 6 years you get a 2.9 WAR average. That is reality plain and simple.
Listen, Daddy, if you’re a Bryce Harper cheerleader/homer cheer on. Bottom line is most people aren’t buying the hype. He is—I repeat—the most overhyped player in the game. (The numbers simply aren’t there—on either side of the ball.) One or two teams may be willing to paralyze themselves financially to pay for that hype; the overwhelming majority of teams—nearly all (including many with he resources to pay for him)—have shown they’re just fine without him.
Daddy, how many players under 26 who had a 10 WAR season had a 1.5 WAR the very next year?
@Michael Chaney
That’s what the Cubs thought when they gave Heyward his contract. It’s not like Bryce has been a model of Consistency.
The difference with Harper and machado getting 10yr contracts if they get them are younger then what pujols got. But what did pujols do from age 26 to 31. Roughly avg 41 hr batting around .330 ops over 1000 on base over 400 and got 10 yr 240$ And Harper and machado what more when clearly there not even close to being a hitter pujols is. Same goes for Arod those guys shouldn’t be getting paid more then what they got don’t care if there 26 there not going put same # as they did from
26 and beyond. Going be interesting to see what they get then when trout and Betts get after
Plus reinsdorf HATES borass
It’s not Reinsdorf that has the problem with Boras. It’s Kenny Williams. Keep Kenny out of it and it’s a non-factor.
I don’t think JR is the hateful type. Quite the opposite, in fact.
A lot of people have formed ridiculous opinions on him over the years for whatever reason. My favorite was the Drake LaRoche debacle where everyone was writing about how JR had no loyalty – by far the MOST ridiculous take I’ve ever seen.
If true (big IF), then the White Sox won’t be landing Manny Machado or Bryce Harper anytime soon. If either free agent even considered a record breaking AAV deal for a shorter term they would be more inclined to sign on with an immediate contender. A max 7-year deal also makes no sense for either player. Why would they want to become FA’s again at age 33? A high AAV deal for 4-5 years would make more sense when they could hit the market at 30-31. What makes the most sense would be a record total value deal for 10+ years with that ever popular opt-out in years 4 or 5.
Song and dance……
Machado to the Yankees. Harper back to the Nationals.
The White Sox and Phillies are being used to run the price up.
The chances that the White Sox or Phillies will ever be the championship contenders in the next 5 years that the Yankees and Nationals are today is minimal. Those 2 guys are not going to fiddle around playing on teams for years hoping for something to happen. And make no mistake – they are me-first players, not leaders. They expect to be catered to. They expect other guys to do the heavy lifting. And neither team has much of a core that exhibits leadership.
News flash: The Yankees won’t be overpaying Manny Machado or approaching the record total value contract that Giancarlo Stanton already owns as a Yankee care of the Marlins. He’s still a luxury acquisition for the Yankees in comparison to what he could be for the Phillies or White Sox.
As for Bryce Harper, how many postseason series have the Nationals won in his 7 years in Washington? He’s 0 for 4 and a big part of that W-L record with his mediocre numbers in the playoffs. The Nationals might have made the postseason 4 times in his career but they were far from ever being championship contenders. I also don’t see the Nationals offering any more than the 10-yrs/$300MM contract he already turned down late last season. Because of their subsequent spending this offseason I don’t see them coming close to those numbers unless owner Ted Lerner has a big change of heart or is willing to offer a shorter term record breaking AAV deal that would surely put his club in deep luxury tax waters.
Many Nats’ fans have moved on from Bryce. They like Adam Eaton. Soto caused lots of buzz. The best may be Robles who is a natural OF and good all-around ballplayer. The danger is that Boras gets to Ted Lerner and talks him into something.
if you make the playoffs, your by default a contender.
We both posted “championship” contender in our comments. A team that continually can’t make it past the first round (NLDS) doesn’t qualify.
The NL East also wasn’t the powerhouse division for many of those years as it now appears to be. The Nationals road to the postseason was easier than that taken by clubs in the other two divisions. Perhaps that was also a factor in their early elimination each year when they did manage to make the playoffs.
This has to be the most ignorant comment I’ve ever seen. There’s no way you can predict what a team will look like 5 years into the future. Of the teams that made the playoffs this year: who saw the Cubs, Astros, Indians, As, Brewers or Rockies play in 2013 and said, “this team is going someplace in 2018.” What a ridiculous statement. Every year there are teams that surprise in their success and in their failures. That’s why they play the games. Everyone wanted to crown the Nats NLE champs before the season started and look how that turned out.
Furthermore, to say that two teams who play in 2 of the 4 biggest markets in the MLB, who have cash to spend and core groups of young players, have a low chance of being competitive just because they had to rebuilds is seriously short selling them. Everyone has to rebuild or retool at some point unless you can spend your way out of every mistake like the Yankees, Red Sox, or Dodgers.
Ha ha My son and I sat in bleachers at Wrigley in May 2013 with 1,000 fans and I was starting to say wait till next decade
OOOh, Sammy —
Save your comment and get back to me in 5 years. I’ll be happy to supply the Catsup.
Machado and Harper have already had sit downs with the white Sox. If this story was true, it would’ve leaked a while ago and their pursuit would already be over. I call B.S. on this report.
Conf calls and cell phones cannot possibly work post sit down, either. I call BS on your poorly thought out comment.
Not sure what you mean. All I’m saying if the Sox are only offering a 7 yr deal, then Machado and Harper would just move on. History tells us they are going to get paid (+ big signing bonus) and are going to ask for a 10+ year contract, with yr 3-5 opt outs.
White Sox know this and will be offering a longer deal with a higher annual salary if they even want a chance at being taken seriously.
That Harper and Machado ask for 10 years does not mean they get it. What did Moustakis ask for, or EE? Or Cespedes? I am not saying they compare in talent, but they weren’t asking for as much, either. They still didn’t get their ask.
Well we know that Harper has an offer for 300/10 to stay in DC. You’d have to assume he gets at least that, especially since it sounds like the Nats have left that offer out there.
If it’s true that the White Sox are only willing to go to 7 yrs for Machado and/or Harper they can probably forget about getting either one. If the White Sox held any hope of signing either one they need to outbid the other teams in both yrs and $’s.
One less competitor for the Phillies…
Just my opinion but I think it’s Machado to the Yankees and Harper to either the Dodgers or Nationals.
Chill, and have a cup of Texas tea, Jed.
As a huge White Sox fan, I’m torn on whether I want either of these guys. Not because they’re not worth it – mostly because the team is not just one player or one season away from being a long-term contender. That being said, landing one of these guys will pave the way for other big name FAs to strongly consider us in the future.
So I’m hedging my bet emotionally – if we land one of these guys, awesome. If not, then it’s not a terrible thing and in fact it’ll only make the team more aggressive during their pursuit of the next major FA – which might be in a year or two when we will hopefully only be one of two players away.
Also huge Sox fan here, If we believe in the re-build, then we believe we’ll eventually be one or two players away in the next 2 to 3 years. What difference does it make if we get those two players now or later?
Good point. But what I’d argue that the focus of the rebuild may shift from the young players coming up to one mega-star. And who knows if either Bryce or Manny can handle that pressure. And if they can’t, the failure of one player may spread throughout the entire organization and impact the upcoming talent. Whereas if the kids are up in the Majors and doing well and THEN you add the mega-star, a lot less pressure on everyone involved. Just a theory.
Funny thing about risk, … sometimes the riskiest approach is to avoid risk.
Risk. They could fall off due to injury or otherwise. That’s more likely the longer you have them under contract.
Then wait for Trout in 2 years
Trout stays. I am thinking thats why Eppler is doing one year deals like crazy. Crazy like a fox. Halos could possibly contend for wildcard. Trout will require lots if money this time next year. May need…probably need to dump Albert at same time. Then make a splash signing ir trade for additional imoact player. Halos farm will be producing in two years
Also big white Sox fan. And I agree the “pave the way” comment is what I was thinking originally. But I also feel that the team is a couple more years away from contending and a few of the prospects will be pushing their way up at that point. I’m hoping that guys like moncada or eloy can serve as the father figure type studs as the younger guys show up and we don’t need the huge investment guy right now. Unfortunately, the sox have the bad rep because of articles like this one and now I feel they are trying to prove it wrong.
Passan already starting like a bonafide shill at ESPN. Shoulda stayed at Yahoo.
I’d offer 8 years 300 million with an opt out after years 3 and 5. Shorter contacts are better.
Too much AAV, especially with two opt outs.
Yes, long term contracts are generally bad, but remember that these guys are just turning 26. At 35 years old there’s a solid shot they’re still average players.
And if you offer, say, 10 years, 320 million, compared to your offer it’s 20 million more dollars. Which in 10 years may be the going rate for 1-1.5 WAR. And they have 2 years to achieve that.
unless you’re getting into the realm of like $40m+ AAV, I really think its moot in the context of NYY.
Either they’re going to pay the guy and exceed the threshold or they aren’t. that’s all it comes down to.
I don’t care either way if they get him. I don’t think he truly represents a need, but at the same time if he fell into NYY’s hands (which I don’t believe he will), then they could do a lot worse.
Still think Harper is the better get of the two considering specific NYY needs (LH power being the primary). And before anyone opines that the Yankees don’t need another OF, stop yourself and think.
Gardner: 4th OF
Stanton: Primary DH and defensive liability when playing OF.
Hicks: Free Agent after 2019 and consistently injured in each season since NYY acquired him.
Frazier: until he demonstrates health over a full season, cannot be counted on
Ellsbury: you already know
Stanton isn’t a liability in the field. He’s just not above average.
@ jakethesnizake;
Watch many games?
What makes you think Harper is a better OF then Stanton?
“Shorter contacts are better.”
Not that simple. Players want security. If you don’t offer enough years you don’t sign the guy.
Plus, longer contracts which mean a lower AAV, which make for a smaller hit on the luxury tax. That’s an issue for every team, NYYs and LA Dodgers included. Neither would have made such a concerted effort to get below the threshold last year if it weren’t.
The tax hit really isn’t an issue for every team. Only a handful of teams ever approach/pass that number.
Fine.
That’s an issue for every team that spends at the top of market, NYYs and LA Dodgers included.
Happy? Yours, while technically correct, is kind of a moot point since I think we all assume Harper and Machado are not any kind of consideration for teams like the Pirates, A’s, or Rays. I Didn’t think I needed to delineate that based on what I thought we all understood. Plus, I added that specifically for a earlier post stating that AAV was not an issue for the NYYs.
Seeing as the White Sox are one of the few contenders for both players, I think it’s a pretty fair point. A high AAV contract still won’t put them anywhere near the luxury tax threshold. Shoot, they could sign both players and still not come close.
Harper is going to get a minimum of 10 years. The fact that the luxury tax will not be an issue in 2019 is rather short-sighted.
Do you really think they’ll add another ~$100M on top of Harper’s contract to the yearly budget any time soon? Being a Sox fan for my entire life, I can all but guarantee you it won’t be an issue.
Well, maybe not for the White Sox, but I was speaking generally, and I think that’s an issue for teams like the Red Sox, Yankees, Nationals, Phillies, Dodgers, and Giants, And maybe even teams for like the Cardinals, or Cubs.
But 10 years is a long time. No one knows how much salaries will escalate, or what impact guys like Trout, Betts, and Bryant might have.
Philly is currently projected by Cot’s to be $60M under the $206M threshold.
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRiCClxiYj…
As for BBRef the have them Est. Total Payroll w/ Options (Guaranteed + Options + Arb + Other) $118.5M
baseball-reference.com/teams/PHI/philadelphia-phil…
What’s your point? That next year isn’t an issue? Things can change a few years down the road. We’re talking about what’s probably a 10-year contract at a minimum.
My point is the Phillies are nowhere near the CBT line unlike the other teams you mentioned.
Could they be pushing the line in a few years? Sure, just like any team that signs high dollar contracts but right now they are even behind the Mets as far as the CBT goes.
And my point is thinking only about next year when it’s a 10+year contract is short-sighted. FOs are looking several years ahead, and the luxury tax is one of those issues for teams that play at the top of the market.
You may think the Phlillies’ salary for 2019 is no big issue, but I guarantee the FO is looking much farther ahead.
Sighs….I am not basing everything on 2019 because baseball is ever flowing. Guys on the 25 man right now will not be there in a few years and some will be gone in a few months if/when the Phillies sign MM. Same can be said for CWS.
Do you realize that if the CWS team stayed as is the projected payroll for 2023 is $106M? Why? Because of arb increases but I would hope we both know that all of those players who will be arb 2 & 3 won’t be there in 2023.
I am not debating the fact the GM’s look ahead. That is why the Phillies signed guys like Arrieta and Santana last year to 3 year deals and Cutch this year.
What I have been debating is lumping the Phillies with some of the teams you mentioned as there 2019 and projected payrolls are not in the same league. It’s not hard to understand.
You are probably right on the money as to what it would take to get Harper for just 8 years. He has been asking for a record AAV over 10 years and that means $35 million at a minimum.
It’s easy to assume that manny and Harper, from the beginning, are not going to get or be offered what they originally thought they might.
The fact that this has gone on for so long definitely indicates that this could be embarrassing for both… unless they do damage control by making it sound like it was THEIR idea and to their own benefit to take whatever contract they sign.
It’s not going to be embarrassing for Harper. He can always re-sign with the Nats, who already offered 10/300. The fact that it’s gone on for so long was entirely expected given that’s how Boras operates.
You’re assuming that offer is still on the table.
Do you seriously think that Ted Lerner would say no to Harper if he came back and said he would now take it? I don’t. The Nats would love to have Harper retire in a Washington uni, especially Lerner. And if they want Harper, they don’t want him disgruntled. This isn’t isn’t Howie Kendrick re-signing with the Dodgers for less.
What do you do with Eaton, Soto and Robles? They’re ready to play full time right now. I can’t see spending 300 million when you have that in place already. Unless there is a trade already in the works for one of those 3. Michael Taylor isn’t have bad as a starter too, but he’s shaping up to be a solid 4th outfielder…given the chance he could have some upside still. All told, Nats don’t need to spend that kind of money.
They already tried to re-sign Harper for $300M. I seriously doubt anyone in the Nat’s FO is saying “we can’t sign sign Harper when we already have Eaton”. Every team needs 4 outfielders at a minimum. No team has ever passed up on acquiring an exceptional asset because they already had a warm body filling the position. Given Eaton’s struggles staying on the field, he is not any kind of deterrent to keeping Harper.
You are assuming it’s not. If the Harper market dropped that low, the Nats would jump on it at 10/300. Harper is going to get a record contract both in AAV and total dollars.
I’m not assuming anything. I’m just pointing out we don’t know if it is or isn’t on the table still. Based on the way they’ve gone about their free agency thus far, there’s at least a decent chance that offer is long gone.
Quite frankly, there’s little doubt in my mind they knew the market and knew he’d decline the offer. At least now they can look like they tried for the fans.
It is embarrassing since all the “expert” bloggers and pundits were talking 14 year (12 minimum) and starting near 450 million.
No one, to my knowledge, said $450M. MLBTR’s prediction of 14/$420 was the highest I saw. That is an AAV of $30M. If he is re-signed by the Nats for 10/$300M, it would be shorter by 4 years, but for the same AAV of $30M per. I don’t see accepting a contract for double-digit years, at the same AAV as much of an embarrassment.
After last year, 14/420 seems crazy to predict. Teams seem to be taking a much more risk averse approach to free agent signings of late. Can’t blame them after some of the signings over the last few years. Seems when teams do make these high dollar long term signings, they’re trying to offload contracts and get out of them after a couple of years.
I would be careful of thinking that last season was indicative that all teams are going to shy away from big contracts. Remember that 3 of the biggest spenders were trying to get under the tax threshold in 2018, and the FA class was underwhelming. Hosmer and Moustakas are just not close to being in the same class as Harper and Machado.
And, I think most teams are more wary of signing pitchers to big deals due to greater injury risk/decline. But there is no precedent for high-ceiling FAs that aren’t even 27 years old yet. Bad contracts like Pujols’ and Cabrera’s aren’t comparable. I think there are several teams that would give Harper 10/300 if they could sign him for that.
Is that Nationals offer still on the board? If so, how much longer? I doubt Harper, or Machado, get 10/300.
I guess we’ll see whether that offer is still on the table.
Nats have already moved on and have committed money to Corbin, etc. Bringing back Harper would put them over the luxury tax ceiling for the third year in a row, and that comes with a 50% penalty and assorted draft picks. Nats have not been building significantly via the draft, but they certainly do not want to cut that off completely.
Besides, the Nats’ OF is set w/ Robles, Soto, and Eaton, plus MAT.
Maybe, but I wouldn’t count on it. There are ways to sign Harper and reduce salary. Teams do that all the time. They could move Eaton. I guarantee you that just because Eaton is penciled in for 2019 it’s not going to prevent them from bring back Harper. Every team looks at which positions they can improve, and replacing Eaton with Harper is a big one. Eaton has played only 118 games total the last 2 seasons.
Hahn should offer 7 years 225 for each and if they decide to go elsewhere, that’s fine. Bring up Eloy and Cease this year and see what they can do, then go after Arenado, who is better than Machado defensively and a comparable hitter, next year.
Cease is a pitcher. How does he factor in if the White Sox sign Harper and/or Machado?
He’s referring to competing for division/ playoffs.
If they are only going to offer a smaller than expected contract to both, they should get out and quit wasting time. As a Sox fan, I have been frustrated with the “nothing” they have done this off season. Yeah, I know they have picked up a couple guys, but they have needs that are not going to be solved by only ELoy. They have gotten rid of a few home runs in Garcia and Davidson that have not been replaced. I’m more prone to believe that this report is incorrect. I don’t want to believe that my team is this stupid. You have been in it this long, better see it through with an offer that doesn’t once again gets you laughed at.
You do know that they aren’t contending this year, right? They aren’t going to fill every hole on the roster in 1 offseason. And losing Garcia/Davidson will be addition by subtraction.
Yeah, I get it. Garcia /Davidson are not casualties. They were loads of strikeouts that they need to cut down on. Too many of those guys on this team. One 300 mil guy isn’t going to fix that.
Again, they aren’t trying to fix that all in one offseason. The only reason they are in on either of these guys is because they are so young. If either of these guys was ~30, they wouldn’t be interested. They aren’t trying to force it. One of these guys, plus the prospects they bring up over the next 3 years, will fix the problem – if all goes according to plan. They’re playing chess, not checkers.
Kid Hammond;
I wouldn’t worry too much about what people choose to laugh at.
Why even bother to make an offer for 7/225, when neither is going to accept that. Some other team will definitely offer more than that.
Boras wants records for his clients. I don’t see any team going over the $325M that Stanton got. Greinke got $34.4M/year so maybe something in the range of $38M/year over 7 with multiple opt outs gets it done. The only player in the league that could potentially surpass Stanton’s $325M is Trout.
What about Bryant, Betts, Lindor, Ramirez, Judge, etc.?
I was gonna say no on bryant and lindor and ramirez. Not worth 300 million commit. But ive looked at there careers. What i came away with is this.
Bryant. It’s obvious I was biased . I wasn’t even Going to look his stats up. I just assume they weren’t On par with the others. I’m right the others are better but Chris Bryan is still a good player but he in no way will get a 300 million dollar contract.
Lindor. Guy can hit really good player. Great defense and a key position. still hes not worth 300 million.
Ramirez. Use the most interesting because although his numbers seemed to drop off, with 30 less hits ,batting average 40 plus points less.
I did hit more home runs and drive-in far more runs and also His walk to K ratio Trended in the right direction. It seems like he figured something out. A lot of those doubles From the year before turned into home runs in 2018. Hes still on board is contract for the next 2 years so it’s hard to say but he looks like hes gonna be quite valuable player. Just not 300 million in my opinion.
Betts may be worth it. He will stay in boston at a discount. No way he leaves boston on his own.
Judge in free agency is too far off. Plus I’m Biased.
The problem with your rational is that you’re basing whether a player is worth $300M (or more) is you are basing it solely on production. Deals of this value are done at the ownership level, which factors in more than just on-field production. If signing a player like Harper will translate to ticket sales, merchandise sales, etc., it will equal more revenue. If signing free agent X to X amount of dollars ends up producing more money for the team, it’s a good deal, regardless of what he produces on the field.
Betts, Lindor, and Ramirez are ABSOLUTELY worth a $300M contract. Judge probably is too if Stanton (good comp) already got that contract. Bryant would definitely be if he was 100% healthy. That’s a list of 5 fantastic baseball players.
Judge will be 31 when he hits FA. He is already older than Stanton was when he signed his extension.
Tom, Thats a good point.
How many 300 million dollar players are there? 1 right now.
And now in a couple years There’s gonna be like 8 of them?
You may be right, if we’re talking about here and now. But if guys like Judge and Betts go through to free agency without an extension, there’s no doubt in my mind they get more than $325 mil if they want a long term deal.
The reason is time. Inflation and more money in the game of baseball leads to higher AAVs.
Thats a great point
Look man, salaries are going to keep going up as long as MLB’s overall profits are going to go up, and there’s nothing you can do but accept this fact.
I’m getting tired with team “Hate what the players want/they don’t deserve the money, give that same money to the owners instead”, it’s so wrong in so many places.
Harper has multiple 10 year deals on the table with “big” AAV. It is going to take more than Greinke’s AAV and at least 10 years to sign him.
Maybe I’m a moron, so help me understand…
If you’re going to offer a guy $400m over ten years, why not make it $400m over forty years? You both know you’ll cut him from the team sometime around years 8-11, but he’ll still get paid. For the player it’s a win, because he’ll be taxed a lot lower. For the team it’s a win, because it counts far less for luxury tax purposes.
The only downside is the player can’t go for another big payout at the end of his career. But really, with 400m in the bank, who cares?
You’re not a moron at all, but a few concerns:
1. Good shot the commissioner vetoes the deal because it’s obviously circumventing the luxury tax.
2. In your proposed 40 year deal, it takes the player 4 years to get $40 mil, as opposed to getting it in one year under the 10 year deal. This outweighs any tax benefit in my opinion.
3. A 40 year deal would mean the team has $10 mil in dead money every year until 2059. In addition to being inconvenient, it makes a team a laughing stock. Bobby Bonilla, anyone?
It’s actually funny when adults act like a small subset of sports fans pretending to be embarrassed for an organization is a motivating factor.
Net present value of the 40 year deal is something in the range of 44% of that of the 10-year deal.
Can you elucidate? Are you assuming some kind of investment income?
What about that mets and bobby bonilla deal where you defer money.
I mean a team could just give 10 million a year for the next 100 years.
I mean in 50 years 10 million dollars is going to be nothing it might be the league minimum.
So when does this “inside information” cross the line and violate the CBA?
NATS DODGE SELF INFLICTED BULLET!
“Harper reportedly declined a 10-year, $300 million offer from Washington at the conclusion of the 2018 season…”
Let’s just say they didn’t dodge a thing, and they knew he wouldn’t actually take that deal. The nationals front office is one of the better ones in baseball currently, and im guessing talks with Boras, led them (aand anyone else who pays attention to Boras the last 2 years) to knowing he was going to test the market. Someone will give him either 10 years at that rate with better clauses, or more money and a few years less, nationals put themselves in a position where when the inevitable happens and harper signs elsewhere, they can tell fans they tried.
I personally think the nationals handled that as well as they could, maybe not the trade deadline, but certainly this part of it
Pretty hard to justify a ten-year contract because others have gotten them when in every case the team made a huge mistake – and everyone knows it. 5/150 seems ridiculously generous for either of these guys.
How many of those contracts were signed by guys in their mid-20’s?
Exactly. Not similar.
Reminds me of Rangers signing A-Rod to an idiotic deal that the Rangers FINALLY got off the hook for either last year or year b4 last.
That deal really attracted other players to come to Texas !
Would be weird if the Rangers got both just because they offered 12 years for both and no one else would go beyond 10 years, actually.
I’m kind of hoping something weird like that happens at this point.
Strike Four – I’m hoping for something along the lines of Nolan Arenado next year to open the new ballpark.
Nobody breaks Cespedes record contract. He’ll collect $110M for less than a full season.
If this info is accurate, and I’m not convinced it is, then Hahn was never really serious about acquiring either player. I find that very disingenuous, and the lowball offer is ridiculous.
What the Sox ultimately offer is not up to Hahn. He has zero say.
I don’t believe passan, I believe Levine though, he usually only puts out what he knows without a doubt. He usually is right. That said, what the white Sox offer tomorrow could be completely different, it’s negotiating, and it’s perfectly understandable. Usually these things don’t get aired out in the public as they are going down.
The next time Levine is right about anything White Sox related will be the the first time. He is a Cubs beat reporter and has no good sources in the White Sox organization. He is to the White Sox what Jason La Confora is to the Bears
Can you point to a specific time when he was wrong, I am pretty sure covering both teams in Chicago for 30 years, he would have sources. Just logically speaking, idk obviously. I personally don’t see him putting out bad info for clicks normally. He knows rick renteria, btw. And he’s been on his show multiple times, so i’m guessing that would be one legitimate source.
Sounds like the Phillies are bidding against themselves. Yanks,Dodgers,WSox,And Nats are all stuck at a ceiling of 10years/300mil or less.
One will sign with Philadelphia.
I Don’t See Either Player Siging For Less Than 10 Years
Unless all the offers they’re getting are sub 10 years. In that case, I’d guess quite a few more teams will start checking in and they’ll land somewhere we haven’t discussed yet.
I still believe Boston is in on these two and willing to strike under the right circumstances.
Keep saying it:
Machado 7 years 250 million for avg 35 mill per and two opt outs. Plus he can be a free agent at 34yo and score another decent contract if still productive.
Harper 8 years at 300 mill for avg 37.5 mill and same two opt outs plus be free agent at 35yo.
Nether worth anywhere near that
“Nether worth anywhere near that”
Yet both will surpass it.
Billysbbalz: Your $$ and contract length for Machado/Harper are eerily where I have wild ass guessed the WSox would be with a “final” offer (not now) in both cases. Opt outs after years 4&5. It actually may be lower for Machado, who personally I believe would not perform well enough to opt out later at that AAV. They know Boras is playing games through the press for Harper, and it means nothing until Machado signs somewhere with his agent first to set the bar.
And the Sox can easily afford both of those contracts, especially if they are somewhat front-loaded.
Harper is waiting it out till manny signs and for one of his preferred destinations to step in and make an offer
I wish these dudes would just pick their teams so the rest of the league can move on! These long, drawn out offseasons are absolutely brutal!
As slow as it’s been at times during this off season last year’s was FAR worse lol
10 yr contract at $340 mil.
first 4 yrs at $180 mil with opt out clause.
he can opt FA at age 30 or play remaining 6 yrs for $160 mil.
$45M AAV for the first 4 Years? that’s absurd lol… why would any team offer that high of an AAV AND give them the full 10 years they’re looking for. Are you sure you aren’t Scott Boras!? lol
$45 mil a year for 1 player would cripple most teams from signing anyone else. This isn’t the NBA where you can have 5 cheap veteran contracts filling out the roster and 1 superstar.
How many monster contracts actually pan out, or to put it a better way, end up being worth the money?
Are any of these even close to being worth the money? — Joe Mauer? Albert Pujols? James Shields? Barry Zito? Ryan Howard? Alex Rodriguez? Prince Fielder? Matt Kemp? Josh Hamilton? Vernon Wells? Carl Crawford? Chris Davis? Mike Hampton? Matt Cain? Homer Bailey? Ryan Zimmerman? Pablo Sandoval? Miguel Cabrera? John Lackey? Alfonso Soriano? Mark Teixeira? Adrian Gonzalez? Jacob Ellsbury? Troy Tulowitzki? Felix Hernandez? Jason Heyward? Griffey Jr? Matt Holliday (maybe he can slide below)? Where do I put Jason Giambi? Jayson Werth? Cole Hamels?
Moderate successes on monster deals (of course some from this list that are still playing could join the top list if performance does not continue) — Greinke, Kershaw, Tanaka, Manny Ramirez, CC Sabathia, Buster Posey, Justin Verlander, Derek Jeter, Robinson Cano, Joey Votto, Carlos Beltran,
Does anyone ever hit a “home run” on a monster deal? I don’t care to quibble about who deserves to be in what category and who wore a pink dress on their wedding day. No hyper left-brain attacks allowed. I won’t answer them. My point is, big contracts rarely, if ever, measure up. And for every one you can make a maybe case for, you can point to three others that clearly did not. And I cannot think of one single monster contract that was really worth the money.
Of course if we factor nontangibles into the discussion (homegrown, team favorite, good leader/mentor, and others) players could boost their value, but that might be another discussion.
How many of those contracts were offered to players who were just hitting 26 years old? That is the key difference here — Harper will be only 35 when he comes off of a ten-year deal, and would theoretically have another 3-4 years of PT. Having seen him play, though, I don’t think he will be serviceable after 32.
I used to blame these players for their absurd expectations, and still do to a point.. In reality though, it’s the agents of today era that are brain washing these young men just to line their own pockets. Both of these guys are going where the money is. Period.
Well, yes and no.
If agents are primarily out to optimize their own income, doesn’t that by definition mean they’re out to do the best they can for their clients?
I’m generally in the camp that thinks all HUGE long term contracts are a bad idea. BUT to be honest I think these two guys (because of their age) could actually provide value for all 10 years of their contract (barring injuries)…
I mean look at the other 7+ year deals signed in the past few years. They’ve all been signed for guys who will be 37-40 by the end of their contract. In those cases the team has to be assuming the final couple of years to be ‘sunk costs’ whereas with Manny or Harper you will actually get 10 years of production or much closer to it. IF you’re a team that believes either one of them is a good fit for your club I think giving them 10/$350M isn’t all that bad of a move (as compared to giving a 7/$250M contract to a 30 year old or something similar). Plus on top of how young they are… in 10 years $35M/year probably won’t be as ‘rare’ as it is today as salaries keep soaring up and up. Personally I’m not sold on Harper as a superstar in general and I don’t like Machado’s attitude. But if you’re in the camp that thinks their superstars that would fit your club — and I can’t believe I’m actually saying this — I don’t think 10 years is all that bad.
Three players;
a) 4021 PA, .298/.378/..524
b) 4452 PA, .304/.394/..542
c) 3957 PA, .279/.388/.512
A is Derrek Lee on the Cubs, B is Mo Vaughn on the Red Sox, and C is Harper on the Nats.
Bryce Harper is a fine player, but not elite.
Ummm, has nobody explained the steroid era to you?
Just spat my water out over my desk
Now is the most homer-happy era in MLB history.
I can’t seem to find where you cited HR #’s in your comparison.
Well they haven’t moved on so that means that they haven’t been told no. Maybe they are in line with the rest of the league.
Just wake me up on Opening Day.
Jason Heyward scored an eight-year deal and Eric Hosmer got eight years from the Padres just last winter.
Another way of using those two examples is… Yeah, how well dd THOSE work out?
Neither one of those players were elite FAs, so it’s a poor comparison to Harper and Machado.
It wasn’t as much money invested as is reportedly needed for Harper or Machado. When you start handing out long contracts with a huge AAV, even one mediocre season is a pretty costly bump in the road.
Only 7 years for each? So the White Sox were posturing all along, what a bunch of phonies. Lets all know better next time they talk big about FA’s, okay?
It would seem to be the case, if this rumor is true. Doesn’t make much sense, though. The Sox have been in on Machado since they tried to trade for him the last few years, even when it was rumored he would be seeking a $400M deal in free agency.
This whole story seems bogus. Bruce Levine May be hearing this stuff, but many other writers are throwing cold water on it. Owen Schoenfeld wrote a good point. Sox would not have been granted a seat at the table for anything less than 10/300. Hahn is not this stupid. With this kind of money being thrown around, I’m sure there are plants everywhere to steer the conversation away from teams. Bruce is playing along for some reason.
When reported the Yankees were not keen on a record setting deal for Machado, comment section said they were smart. When reported the Dodgers preferred shorter deal with a higher AAV for Harper, comment section applauded.
Sox say the same thyings, peole lose their s**t.
Sox aren’t contenders in ’19. Have a lot of OF prospects. Rendon, Donaldson and Arenado are slated to be FA’s in ’20.
Calm down.
Agreed ^
I guess it’s easy to dismiss if you’re a newer fan. After 35 years of following the White Sox, I can’t help but be frustrated with this team’s inability to get high caliber players when they need them. Even when they have money to spend, the Chicago White Sox behave more like the Cincinnati Reds or something. It why a lot of fans have given up on this team altogether. They need to stop being so freaking tight with their money and take a risk on overpaying like every other major market team does.
Been a fan for as long as you.
I’ll get concerned if they pass on FA’s when their window of contentin is open.
They wouldn’t compete in ’19 even if they signed both Machado and Harper. I’m fine with not overpaying until the time to spend and the positions of need are clearer.
pplama, when have they ever done that though. This is my point—Reinsdorf and company can’t be trusted to get significant talent via free agency. They’re simply too frugal to attract top FAs. They seem content with chasing lightning in a bottle to save a little dough, and pissing away rare opportunities to contend in the process.
Saw my first game live in 71. Been a fan of this team a very longtime. They have a couple more years of rebuild and prospect growth. If they don’t land anything this year, I’m good. But the acting like you are in a small market mentality of this team has bugged me forever. This will all be discussed again a year from now too. Until they drop the bomb and sign a huge name, it will continue. But sticking to the rebuild is first and foremost. If that means waiting, then wait.
Precisely.
If the new report is true than that means the Phillies haven’t made an offer yet as they are visiting Harper in a week. I’m sure the White Sox made an offer but who are the other teams ?
The Phillies met with Boras at the winter meetings….the outline of an offer could have and quite possibly was made then.
Boras has also met with Lerner after Rizzo’s statement. Two teams right there.
I would say the cubs but they don’t seem to want to add even more payroll at the moment. On the other hand they have 60 mill coming off the books after 2019 so that could help
The Cubs were already reported to have spoken to him at the Winter Meetings, and they asked him to not to accept any offers until they could try to clear some money off the roster.
They won’t be able to clear that dead payroll, especially darvish. The cubs would have to eat most of it to do so and at that point you might as well keep him. It’s already January and the cubs haven’t moved a dime yet
The White Sox won’t be paying anybody a significant salary for quite some time. So, now is the time to get one of the two top free agents, Harper or Machado. I don’t care which one.
Adding either of them instantly makes the players hitting before them and immediately after them in the lineup better. So, there is a huge ripple effect in that regard. Not to mention the fact that it also takes some of the pressure off of the young guys, and this increases their chances of performing better, quicker.
This isn’t football, basketball, and hockey where salary caps exist and therefore many times the money being offered by multiple teams is similar or the same. This is baseball and there is no salary cap. So, while players will sometimes choose a team in one of the aforementioned sports for reasons other than money, that is not so in baseball. They will go to whoever pays them the most. This is especially true in baseball because it’s also the only sport that guarantees every single penny that’s in the players contract.
Machado has said he would like to play for the Yankees if the money is close. So, if you’re the White Sox, you make it not close. Period. The Yankees offer $35,000,000 per year for 8 years, $280,000,000? Here’s $35,000,000 per year for 9 years, $315,000,000.
So, there is no excuse for the White Sox missing out on both Harper and Machado. And if they do the fans should grade the organizations offseason with a “B” for “boycot”.
Agreed.
So if white sox sign Harper who plays CF?
White Sox should trade for Michael Taylor from the nats to fill C.F. or ask the padres about margot jankowski or cordero. Jackie Bradley Jr would be another good risk option.
Engel can continue to play CF until Robert or Basabe are ready. It really doesn’t matter in 2019.
This. They can survive for a year with Engel’s bat in CF if he’s surrounded by Eloy and Harper – definitely not the case when it’s Delmonico and Avi.
Not important right now, but kids coming up soon, plus talk of Tim Anderson possibly moving to CF.
Heyward got an 8 year deal LOL Cubfan
And the Cubs have gotten 1 World Series championship, 2 NLCS appearances and 3 straight playoff appearances in the first 3 years of that deal. Combine that with his 3 gold gloves and I would say it’s been money well spent. LOL whatever team mccourtscorpse root’s for…
Non sequi·tur. Heyward and his 81 OPS+ had nothing to do with the Cubs winning.
Do you actually watch baseball and have any understanding of what your watching? Or, do you log into your fantasy baseball team everyday to see what stat-line would be the best acquisition for that week? I’m going to assume the latter to best explain how stupid your comment was.
It never ceases to amaze me at just how awful some of the comment’s are out of the “baseball fans” on this site. You might want to start with the basics and pick up one of Tom Emanski’s tutorial videos for a baseball for dummies-esque starter course. Just a friendly suggestion…
Yah, that ever-so-important RF defense is worth every penny. I’m sure the Cubs front office would do that deal all over again.
Heyward probably hurt the Cubs more than he helped win the WS. His at-bats were brutal during the playoffs, especially with runners in scoring position.
Greg M;
You’re on the wrong site. You want MensaMLBTradeRumors.com
Look at the Angels with the albatross Pujos contract. DON”T DO IT!! Learn from Arte Moreno’s mistake.
Albert in his last 2 seasons in st Luis was showing decline and Anaheim didn’t realize that
And was something like 6 years older than Machado and Harper are now
His OPS+ the last two season in St. Louis was 161. I think the Angels would have been very happy with anything close to that.
He still hits the ball hard, But with his speed and three men on the left side of the infield, including one on the outfield grass. There is no place for him to get hits. I will wager if the shift is banned, he’ll be an asset again. Not a huge asset, but he’ll be much better.
The shift has killed this guy, I bet that didn’t happen in St. Louis much.
Albert has abused right field/right center his whole career and it’s his fault if he’s making outs into the shift. He has to swing earlier now due to his bat speed being down
I don’t believe what you are saying is accurate. The data does not support your opinion.
His line drive percentage last year was 22.3 percent. That’s better than what he typically did in St. Louis.. His ground ball rate is lower than what he did in St. Louis.
Percent wise, his career RF rate was 19.7 percent. Last year it was 17.9. His last three years in St. Louis were 16.2, 14.5, 17.8.
His hard contact rate was 42.4 last year. Only once as a Cardinal did he surpass that. His lifetime rate is 36.2. It’s not all roses, he’s aging, but he still hits the ball hard.
The fact is, the shift is killing him, and it would have hurt him in St. Louis as well. It doesn’t mean he would be great without it, but he’d be an asset without it.
Mac;
Banning the shift would be like banning stolen bases. But they ARE actually considering it as we speak.
most angels fans are happy pujols signed with the team. sure, he’s been bitten by injury bugs but he brought legitimacy and he taught trout the way as a superstar.
Trout loves him. No one knows the impact he’s had on Trout, be even still, I believe most Angel fans are sorry the Angels signed him.
“though the tendering clubs remain as yet unknown.”
Nats have a $300 million offer on the table for Harper. It’s there as his floor. No reason to question that given the Lerner’s clear commitment of spending to win.
I still believe both Harper and Machado get $400 million deals. The Phillies have a billion dollars to split between them and it would be money well spent, unlike the McCutchen contract or the other garbage waiting for a deal this winter.
The winter 2000 A-Rod contract is worth at least $600 million in today’s MLB dollars.
We’re all waiting on that “Stupid Money” John Middleton promised to spend. Looks like it’s going to end up where it usually does, in Palm Beach and with his fake Hollywood producer son in Los Angeles.
Scott Rolen gets it.
Put him in Cooperstown.
If you’re going to give a guy a 10 year deal with record money, Machado and Harper are the guys to buy, there is no question about it.. You could build a championship quality team around either of them. They will become the immediate face of the team for a decade to come. They can help turn a franchise around very quickly. So, to me, why teams aren’t lining up to try to get either of them is stupefying. Any team pulling that “rebuilding” nonsense could get themselves right back on track starting today by signing either of them.
No argument can be made that either player won’t make their respective teams better. Also, age is favorable on both players… it’s not like signing Pujols to a 10 year deal when he was 31, or an 8 year deal for Cabrera when he was 33… these guys are only 26 and they are proven commodities.
If I was a GM, I’d bank my career on either of these guys rather than spend the money in any other way. I think they are both excellent bets.
Anyone who claims they wouldn’t want “their” team signing either of them is full of s—!
Machado is a dirty player who has admitted he doesn’t try hard. He is overrated and the team that signs him will regret it very soon.
A dirty player? overrated? Come on… stop that nonsense and jealousy… what could he have possibly done that made you and so many others so bitter? Intelligent people know you’re just angry at life and a hypocrite when you say stupid stuff like that.
Stats do not lie. They paint a very accurate picture of a player’s capabilities, and Machado is incredibly talented both with the bat and in the field.
No one will regret signing him or Harper, they are the best bets MLB free agency has ever had in the short history of free agency.
Did you watch Post Season baseball. Dirty Player absolutely fits. As far as overrated, he’s only overrated if you think he can play shortstop. He can’t.
Machado is a darn good player. And he’s a jerk.
He can’t play SS??? Are you just making this stuff up as you type? Now, it is true that he was a more valuable defender playing 3rd than SS, but it’s not like he’s a statue out there… he still has positive defensive value as a SS.
And then there’s the jerk comment, spoken as if you know the man personally. Seriously dude, who are you to spout such baseless assumptions?
Out of the 26 shortstops that fangraphs has ranked, he’s number 26. (800 innings minimum.) Safe to say he can’t play short.
Simmons number one, Lindor #2. Machado #26.
As far as being a jerk, anyone who would purposely step on a firstbaseman is a jerk. I can say that with complete confidence.
I just researched this… you are correct, he was ranked 22/22 last season at SS, however, there is more to this story…
He spent the majority of his games at SS for the Orioles, who had the worst ERA in the league at an embarrassing 5.18. Their pitchers were constantly getting crushed with hard contact. That makes fielding significantly more difficult. The faster the ball is coming at you, the lesser your range, which is why he got hammered for range deficiencies in BAL.
While he played SS for the Dodgers, he rated out significantly better, albeit over a smaller sample size, but the difference was night and day. With LA, he was way better than league range at SS,
BAL’s pitching just destroyed him defensively. He’s undoubtedly an above-average defender at 3B or SS.
Jerks HAVE been known to reform.
Nobody cares about his play which has been exaggerated, and you never heard Buc talk about his hustle so that means that’s exaggerated. He is a 5 WAR player, a star , and all around player that doesn’t come on the market very often. He is a no brainer to me.
No one cares? WHAT?????
If we’re interested in any player, we sit down with them face to face with their agent and ask them, ‘Where did this come from? What context was around the entire interview? What point were you trying to make? How do you justify it?’” Steinbrenner said. “Because that ain’t going to sell where we play baseball.”
You are kidding yourself if you think no one cares.
You believe that’s how the conversation is going to go, eh? Some stiff conversation like that which warrants canned, equally stiff, responses? Please… Hank Steinbrenner said that just to avoid having to deal with any backlash if the team signs him.
The only one kidding themselves here is you macstruts.
You probably believe in the media invented concept of a “bad” locker room guy or whatever nonsense people like to call it… plenty of guys have hated each others guts off the field but played side by side for years on winning teams. None of that stuff matters… only their ability. If a guy doesn’t hustle to first on a routine grounder, or stands in the batters box watching his hit ball and winds up with a single instead of a potential bang-bang double, it’s not the end of the world. No different than any other mental lapse that players have from time to time.
You don’t think people care? Seriously? OK. Whatever.
I would never want that douchebag machado on my team. Harper is so not worth what he will get.
I think we all know Manny is going to the Yankees, but when it comes to Harper, I wouldn’t be surprised if he returns to the Nats.
I’d be surprised if Machado goes to the Yankees without a Yankee Opt Out clause early in the contract.
And if that happens, it’s means his October antics cost him tens of millions of dollars.
It’s possible, only if there isn’t a lot of interest in Machado.
Opt outs can be good for the Yanks too!
It will be a Yankee Opt Out Clause. It will be a mutual option.
That will be good fro the Yanks and risky for Machado.
Nobody cares about his play which has been exaggerated, and you never heard Buc talk about his hustle so that means that’s exaggerated. He is a 5 WAR player, a star , and all around player that doesn’t come on the market very often. He is a no brainer to me.
Actually it is known if we’re to believe that the Nationals did offer 10 yrs/$300m. As for other teams, I’d guess at least one other team has thrown around tentative “what if” scenarios with Boras and Lozano that include 10 yr terms w/ various opt outs.
That said, everyone knows that some folks in the media are being used by agents and the Players Union to create the perception that these guys actually have offers from teams with longer term contracts (10+ years) and record AAVs.
Bruce Levine trying to suppress the bidding so the White Sox don’t drop out.
Beat writers engage in unethical behavior. It’s practically a tradition.
So the owner that whined to high heaven about paying iconic Jordan fair value is now gonna throw the equivalent of half his paper worth on a ballplayer?
That’s a friggin pipe dream.
Reinsdorf’s personal networth is $1.5B. I’m pretty sure the operating budget of the Bulls and White Sox are not a factor.
Could we see Machado back with LA and possibly Harper a Met?
I don’t believe that the Sox were ever serious contenders for either of these guys. I think they just wanted to give appearances of being ‘players”.
I believe that next year they will try to spend some real money. The Sox are never gonna be high bidder on guys like this. They will always try to figure out some angle to get one to take less.
Machado makes little sense for the White Sox. You want a guy the prospects can look up to, not a lazy dbag.
Look at Machado’s career stats, then tell me what a “lazy dbag” he is.
The White Sox are total pretenders and have zero actual interest in signing either player and as for Philly, who the hell wants to play in that armpit? The Yankees know they can get Machado for a better deal than all these “experts” predicted. Some of the numbers being talked about are just plain stupid. What kills it for Machado is that the one team that could spend it, the Yankees, know they don’t have to so it’s slowed the process down significantly as the baseball world waits for Machado to accept the fact that he’s not getting $400 million over ten years.
I’m surprised more people aren’t talking about the taxes of a given deal. In NY, a $300M deal costs the player about $20M more in taxes than the same deal in Chicago. A deal in LA costs even more. Philly is relatively cheap in taxes, but still more than Chicago. For all the talk about marketing opportunities in NY and LA, Chicago is the 3rd largest market and $20M (near $40M before tax) is a fair bit of ground to make up, especially considering it would have to be $40M more than they’d make in Chicago and not just $40M.
Endorsements more than make up for that which are beyond plentiful here
Except endorsements really aren’t that huge in baseball…
Here is the endorsements that the highest paid players have now.
forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhausen/2018/04/11/major-…
Both Philly and the State of Penna. have a wage tax..
Because they can afford whatever they want in any place and LA is better in January than Chicago or Philly.
Why would either player be in Chicago, Philly or NY in January? Think sometimes.
Income tax is a big deal. So is property taxes. These guys buy multi-million properties.
turbotax.intuit.com/tax-tips/fun-facts/states-with…
finance.yahoo.com/news/states-highest-property-tax…
California has a higher income tax, but its property taxes are a third of Illinois and half of New York.
Then you have to take into account local income tax rates. According to the Business of Baseball, a player earning $20 million and owning a $10 million home while living in Philadelphia has an effective tax rate of 20% beyond the federal income taxes. The highest in the nation.
Rumors and comments are fun to read. I will say this: there will be comments that are right and comments that are wrong. I wish I was passionate about the outcome but honestly, I’m not. Wherever they sign that teams fans will be happy and those teams that lose out on them will probably say they didn’t want them in the first place or they are bums. Love baseball.
I actually will be disappointed if my team, the White Sox, sign neither. They could especially use Harper, who always plays all out and is also more marketable. That said, next year has some stars as well and a ton of pitching, so all is not lost if they strike out on both.
“Harper, who always plays all out “.
This still amazes me when people say it. He has been either benched (Matt Williams) or called out by every manager he has played for, including Martinez this past July.
The difference between MM and BH is Manny’s statement which he clarified.
No I am not a Manny apologist nor a huge fan (but I won’t complain when the Phillies sign him), I am just a realist.
There will be sour grapes, no question about it.
Terr;
Absolutely agree with you on the part about baseball.
Sox fans and Philly fans…these players do not want to play for your clubs. Don’t get mad at your ownership for not signing them. It takes two….Harper will go back to DC…
and you know this because you are BFFs with them both and regularly talk or text each other? Right?
Or, are you accepting the word of a writer for the NY Post? I’m sure he doesn’t have any bias..
No one knows..
With that said, it was reported by another reporter about the 2 players not being fond of the Phillies and white sox.
Let me guess – that reporter is from NY or LA? Shocking.
Harper like Chicago. It’s his favorite city for food. Look it up.
10M people in the Chicagoland area. It’s a big market.
LOL…because Philly is not a big market city…..and Chicago is not a big market city…
seriously people…please read what you write before hitting post comment
Chicago Pawn!
I know we are talking two different sports here but at the same time it still baffles me that Machado and Harper are both pursuing 10/yr contracts. I know within baseball it’s better to get the money and run but if these guys are truly generational talents then why aren’t they pursuing less long term contracts and more AAV and modeling their contracts off of the NBA where players like Lebron are maxing out with 3/4yr contracts picking and choosing where they can contend and still take the money to the bank. Just a thought
Basketball is more predictable for which teams will get to the finals. IIRC the Red Sox weren’t the favorites. Certainly the Royals, and the 3 Giants teams weren’t. A lot of guys don’t have the luxury that Harper and Machado have in being able to choose.
Some players do eschew extensions preferring to go year to year, But those are usually guys under team control. Tim Lincecum did that, and it didn’t work out. Mookie Betts is doing that now. Once guys reach free-agency though the issue is security. Most players will chose a longer contract even if it means less per year. A lot of guys, too many, get injured, but if they had signed a guaranteed contract for a salary for 6-7 years they’re in good shape.
I don’t think either one represents a “generational player”. I think only Mike Trout fits that bill right now, just as Albert Pujols did 10 years ago. Steroids or not, the talent just isn’t like it was 20 years ago. The record amount of players striking out looks to continue and players aren’t adjusting to the shift. From the Babe, to Ted Williams, to Barry Bonds each generation had that SCARY player that no pitcher wanted to face with the game on the line, and that is missing from today’s game.
Philly fans and White Sox fans crack me up. Several reporters even outside of LA and NY have reported they do not prefer Philadelphia or Chicago but they are trying to come up with excuses to disapprove every report that is out there. Also to the guy who said that Harper prefers Chicago because of food get drug tested he is from Las Vegas and it is a known fact Las Vegas has some of the best food from all over the world right in its own city limits.
I agree about the food in Vegas. Have you ever tried the buffet at Caesars? Fantastic.
Um, Harper was asked what his favorite city for food was on camera (while at the airport in LA) a few weeks ago. He said he loves the food in Chicago. Ytube it.
Machado and Harper are good players, but neither one deserve the largest contract in history. What makes them more worthy than great players of the past? The media and the agents have made this the most overhyped offseason I can remember. Neither one of them are going to be blasting 50 or more homers a year, and both have character flaws. Harper is very poor on defense as well. Whoever signs them are never going to get what they paid for, and most likely they will wind up with a clubhouse problem down the road. The smartest team is going to spend their money on one or more of the late inning relievers available, and let the suckers pick up Harper
That they are free agents at 26, and likely future hall of famers.
It’s silly to compare them to guys that signed 10 year deals in their 30’s.
You are likely signing these guys as they are entering their primes, not as they are leaving it
It’s silly to say that I compared them to guys that signed 10 year deals in their 30’s, because my comment didn’t mention that at all. Does going into their “primes” suddenly change their ego or improve defense? Looks like Philly spent some smart money today on Robertson at least.
I haven’t heard anyone mention Machado’s two knee surgeries. I don’t see him signing for no more than 6 years with someone with a lot of money.
Pudge Rodriguez gave a heart-transplant type of talent boost to a 119-loss Tiger team that could not attract anyone until after he signed. That plan absolutely can work outside of the NBA.
When one pits Boyhood Dream Team vs. Follow the Money, follow the money. Problem is these market keepers aren’t just automatically playing Topper to recent long deals. Are they seeing the downside and thus will no longer sign off?
Any rumored offers of 10 yrs planted by anyone other than Boras?
I’m not a fan of the white Sox or Phillies, but I would love for a team to sign both to mega long term deals (10-12 years).
I realize that’s probably not reality, but if there was ever a chance for a team to change their direction in one off-season through free agency, landing both of these guys could take an 84 win team and turn them into a 92 win team pretty quickly
The problem is that neither team won 84 games last season.
The White Sox lost 100 games in 2018, so adding 8 wins doesn’t even bring them close to .500. They’d still have a LOT of work to do.
The Phillies meanwhile, won just 80, and are facing improved competition in 2019 from the Mets and Braves who’ve added Robinson Cano, Josh Donaldson, and Edwin Diaz to the division. Even adding both players doesn’t make them favorites, though it does give them a hell of a better chance.
You’re conveniently ignoring player development, promotions and player health in your assessment of the White Sox. Also, they’ve been tanking for draft picks the last two seasons. That ends in 2019.
The White Sox arrow is pointing up despite those 100 losses. They just finished the second year of their rebuild which is often the worst in terms of W-L record for teams in that situation. You might recall that the rebuilding Twins lost 103 games in 2016 only to win 85 and secure a wild card birth in 2017.
The White Sox have now shed most of their veteran assets aside from Jose Abreu who is a strong candidate for a contract extension. They are entering phase 3 of their rebuild which is concentrating on the development of the young players on their active roster along with the gradual promotions of their most elite prospects. They have numerous foundation pieces continuing to gain valuable MLB experience with players such as Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada, Carlos Rodon, Reynaldo Lopez and Lucas Giolito. The new season should also see the MLB debut of two of their most highly regarded prospects in Eloy Jimenez and Dylan Cease.
Even without signing a Manny Machado or Bryce Harper the White Sox would expect a decent improvement in their W-L record in 2019. With one or both of those players it would not be out of the realm of possibility that they could duplicate the Twins feat in the A.L. Central.
Every time I see “pursuit” for Harper and MM, I think of the song pursuit of happiness. Slightly fitting…. maybe these teams will find their happiness for the next 10 years in the tune of insane money
Does anyone have a idea when Manny will make his choice?
I would assume this week. He’s had enough time to look through his offers. People claim he hasn’t gotten a contract offer yet but why make a decision without an offer presented ?
Someone on YouTube theorized that if manny comes to the Yankees he would announce it today as today is the anniversary of the Yankees acquiring Ruth lol. Also since his favorite player is a rod #13. 1/3
1:03 eastern time he will make his choose know lol ^_*
Good observations
Detroit is signing Harper this week.
Yep. Him and Ron Cey.