We all knew it would happen at some point, yet somehow it came as a surprise when Manny Machado finally reached agreement on a monster free agent contract. After months of hand-wringing over how much he’d take down, Machado secured a hefty ten-year, $300MM commitment — albeit from a rather unexpected place.
Here at MLBTR, we actually predicted that Machado would secure an even lengthier deal at that $30MM AAV. The bidding frenzy we foresaw never quite developed, as several larger-market clubs stayed on the sideline, but there was still sufficient interest to produce the first-ever $300MM free agent contract.
First question (link for app users):
How would you characterize the Machado deal from a market perspective?
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Overpay 59% (20,942)
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Fair Value 38% (13,385)
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Bargain 3% (955)
Total votes: 35,282
For the Padres, the move brings in a youthful superstar just ahead of the anticipated crest of a wave of internally developed talent. Machado will be on the books for at least five seasons — he’ll have an opt-out opportunity after his age-30 campaign — and could help open a lengthy contention window. Of course, there’s also risk aplenty in a signing of this magnitude, particularly for an organization that doesn’t have immense payroll capacity and has already placed two larger deals on its books (Wil Myers, Eric Hosmer).
Second question (link for app users):
How does the Machado signing look from the Padres' perspective?
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Wise addition of a superstar 52% (14,475)
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Foolish risk 48% (13,502)
Total votes: 27,977
As noted above, we anticipated entering the winter that a few more bidders would play major roles in the proceedings. Phillies GM Matt Klentak suggested that strict, emotion-less valuations kept his team from increasing its bid. The Yankees seemingly remained on the periphery, seemingly operating with an even tighter grip on their own payroll space. And that was about it … except for the White Sox. The South Siders were obviously all-in on Machado, pulling out all the stops to make an attractive landing spot and putting up a big offer that included more earning upside (but a smaller guarantee) than the one he ultimately took. In the wake of Machado’s decision, the club’s top execs expressed no small amount of disappointment yesterday at missing on him.
Third question (link for app users):
How does the Machado (non-)signing look from the White Sox' perspective?
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Missed a unique opportunity 36% (10,081)
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Dodged a bullet 32% (8,828)
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Disappointing, but there are other fish in the sea 32% (8,714)
Total votes: 27,623
Mobile poll missing.
It is there now. I just voted.
No links
Just like Hosmer, Machado’s offensive numbers will go down playing in San Diego
Preller is acting pretty desperate. Overpaying for Hosmer and Machado over the last two years is taking a big risk. If the padres don’t do well Preller is getting the boot.
id hardly say 30 million a year is an overpay for a player of Machado’s caliber
So you think his stats for the second half of last season 273 and a WS average of 213 along with the no hustle comment is worthy of 30 Mil? It’s a real chance, that 30 mil can bury the future for the Padres for a long time. Look at Pujols and the Angels..
Please, please make smarter arguments than this. Comparing a 26-year-old free agent to a 31-year-old, as if that’s meaningful, is not a good argument. Artificially citing small sample sizes to paint a player in the worst possible light is not a good argument.
Yes, all players carry risk. But Machado has played like a superstar throughout his career, and is still at age where we should expect him to be at peak form for at least several more years. As long-term signings go, this is far, far less risky than most.
Oh my God I’m going to lose my mind!!! Pujols was like 32 (at least) when he signed that contract. The hustle comment??? Let me ask you how you feel about Bryce Harper? He has literally been removed from games for not hustling by multiple managers. Nowhere has it ever been reported that Machado is a cancer in the club house. Batting average in the playoffs?! Are you serious???
Wolverines2….. re: Harper….here is a recent little blip by a WaPo reporter who covers the Nats…….
“Though few mention it, subtracting Harper, while it will cost 34 homers, a .899 career OPS and some amazing hair flips, would help any team improve its attention to fundamentals. When the most famous player on the team can’t go 10 days without failing to run out a groundball or overthrowing a cutoff man by 15 feet or throwing to the wrong base or being caught unprepared in the outfield or on the bases, it’s hard to demand total alertness from the other 24.”
‘“Write it,” one prominent Nats vet said.”
Exactly…I just don’t see how people can say these things about Machado and let Harper off the hook for it.
Dan wants a “smarter argument,” so I’ll offer this: another team in a similar situation signed a huge free agent to a record setting 10 year deal. They didn’t win. Primarily because the team knew nothing about developing, scouting, and acquiring ML pitching.
The Texas Rangers traded A-Rod (and his syringes) to the Yankees after only three years.
The risk lies in the capabilities of the GM.
It’s a nationalistic, conservative point of view. They hate all others..
A-Rod’s Rangers contract was a huge plus for them. The fact that they failed to contend doesn’t change this. When things didn’t turn out the way they hoped, they were able to trade him for prospects.
The real problem with that contract was the opt out.
Swinging Friars –
Spoken like a true shallow thinking Socialist. Please don’t go there on this forum.
padresfanaticfan –
It wasn’t a plus, because they were unable to follow through on their stated promises and goals after they signed him. The year after they traded him, they were over .500.
It was a plus because he provided surplus value on the contract. Hence them being able to trade him for prospects.
My bad. All these years I thought the idea was to sign good players to help the team win ball games. In reality, the actual purpose is to keep acquiring prospects to win minor league games. Wow. How could I have been so freaking dumb to think winning ML games was the actual goal in ML baseball?
You might wanna watch the sarcasm there big guy.
And yes, the idea is to sign good players to help the team win ballgames, but if the team isn’t winning ballgames and the player isn’t going to be there when they are, the next best thing is to trade him for other good players who will be there when they are winning.
It was a 10 year deal! How could he have not been there? They had every intention of winning. Where they failed utterly was pitching: tops in the AL in most offensive categories – dead last in pitching.
He had an opt out. That’s how he could have not been there.
They had every intention of winning, yes. But it didn’t work out. Just like the 2015 Padres. So they retooled by using Rodriguez to add younger, cheaper, more controllable players.
He was traded. I’m pretty sure he didn’t have an opt out at three years – but I’m not 100% on that. I’ll check. The Rangers were over .500 the very next year.
His opt-out was at 7 years. Not really relevant to the Rangers situation. The rangers also sent $69MM to the Yankees, and they didn’t exactly get a boatload in return. They got Alfonso Soriano and Joaquin Arias.
Not only were they not winning, the contract was choking them to death.
I think the negative comments regarding Machado are unwarranted, his numbers speak for themselves. He’s a stud. I expect a 26 year old to say dumb stuff now and again. What I saw in his on field behavior with the Dodgers was unfortunate but I attribute it to a fiery competitor. The Friars just got better and with a great farm system look to be making a push to be contenders. If i was a Padres fan I’d be stoked the FO is willing to go out and make it happen.
There is no question we just got a lot better. Machado’s a stud and he will help us get wins. As far as questions about his “style” of play, those are things that will hopefully be addressed by the manager and front office.
We still have needs and holes before we can print WS tickets, primarily pitching. This year should be fun to watch. Play Ball!!!
He was traded after 2003. Had an opt-out after 2007.
They’d have been further over .500 without the trade.
The contract was not choking them to death. They were not going to get that kind of production for less money anywhere else.
That’s speculation on the wins, but who knows?
According to John Hart, who repaced Hicks after 2003, and was the guy who traded A-Rod, the Rangers “NEEDED” to get out from under that contract. Had Hicks been able to find a halfway decent starting pitcher or two, it might have been a totally different story.
The point is that A-Roid’s deal with Texas can viewed as a cautionary tale with regard to team building and sustainable success.
Absolutely they would have won more games in 2008 if they had Alex Rodriguez and his 594 plate appearances with a .965 OPS on the team!
Again, if you trade A-Rod, his production just has to be replaced. They weren’t going to be able to replace it for cheaper elsewhere.
The only thing it can be seen as a cautionary tale for is how opt-outs are bad for teams.
By your logic, the Mike Trout extension was bad for the Angels because they have only made the playoffs once since that happened and were swept in the first round in that one playoff appearance. Regardless of the fact that Trout has provided major surplus value on that contract.
Yes, opt outs are bad for teams.
A-Roid didn’t (couldn’t) use his opt out with the Rangers after 3 years, because it wasn’t in play until the 7th year of his contract – whis is when he exercised it with the Yankees. He was TRADED to the Yankees after the 3rd year, his opt out at that time was irrelevant, because he couldn’t use it for 4 MORE YEARS. And he did – to get a pay raise from the Yankees.
The Rangers didn’t win with him because Hicks were unable or unwilling to build a pitching staff. After 3 yrs, owners hired Hart with the directive to make payroll more sustainable and start winning.
And no, that is not “my logic.” Apples and oranges, false dichotomy, all of the above. Completely unrelated.
A-Rod was making a lot of money but as of the time of the trade he was making good on the contract. They didn’t win with him because the team had other problems which he simply didn’t do enough on his own to overcome. Getting rid of him didn’t help them win. Their improvement in 2004 was due to them improving in other areas which unless you put some serious stock in A-Rod’s negative intangibles, still would have happened if they hadn’t traded him.
Not false dichotomy at all. A-Rod and Trout are both players who signed large, long-term contracts that they provided surplus value on but the rest of the team wasn’t good enough to contend even with them. The Angels have already spend ~$73m on Trout and have nothing to show for it. How is that different from A-Rod?
I never said A-Roid wasn’t performing, because he was.
I still don’t see any comparison between him and Trout, their contracts, the way they were/are being handled, what one has to do with the other, etc.
My initial point was fairly simple: the Rangers signed the best free agent available to a then-record contract, but failed to capitalize.
Well of course now I agree with you. But that’s not what you said. You said “The A-Rod deal with Texas? It was only “productive” to his wallet.” in response to someone saying that the first A-Rod deal was pretty productive, which was a response to someone else saying that all deals for 7 years or more have been disastrous. The first A-Rod deal was very productive. The Rangers failed to win despite him, not because of him.
Trout is exactly the same situation. Generational talent signed for a lot of money but still not quite as much as he is truly worth but the rest of the team stinks. I’m thinking he is traded within the next year.
It wasn’t very productive for the Rangers, was it? They didn’t win. And, to be fair, that wasn’t A-Roid’s fault.
I measure success by winning. That’s the point of playing, isn’t it?
I’m hoping we’ll be different than the Rangers. For that matter, better than the Angel’s. Signing Machado is just the first step. Albeit a huge one.
It was productive for them in that they won more than they would have won without it and were able to flip him for prospects when things failed to break their way
It’s a stretch, if not disingenuous to say they “flipped him for prospects.” The trade was for Alfonso Soriano and a PTBNL, who turned out to be Joaqin Soria, a low level infield “prospect” who never amounted to much. Soriano was already an established player, and an all-star. And they still had to eat more than $60 million of A-Roids contract.
They started winning when Hart took over and they got some pitching.
What, exactly, is the point you’re trying to make? The Rangers got hosed on that deal any way you slice it. Hypothetical “wins” and fictitious “prospects” don’t count. IMO, they failed because of poor management.
They certainly didn’t get hosed when you consider the production they got from A-Rod before they traded him and were then able to get value out of the contract via trade in the form of Alfonso Soriano. Also, I’m pretty sure that a lot of the money they were paying as part of the trade, they only had to pay if A-Rod didn’t opt out, which he did.
Finally, you always say that teams should always try to put a competitive product on the field, even if they aren’t expected to contend. A-Rod helped the Rangers in that endeavor. They’d have lost a lot more games from 2001-2003 without him. Unless of course you are trying to say that the Rangers should have been in full-blown tank mode during those years, but that doesn’t seem to be your style.
I’ll ask again. If not from A-Rod, where else would the Rangers have gotten that production for the same amount of money or less?
Did I not already say that A-Roid produced? He did his part. Management failed.
The cash the Rangers sent was not tied to his opting out 4 years later. It was part of the deal, plain and simple. Where did you even come up with that?
Again, what is your point?
Heard it on here. That part of the reason the Yankees were upset when he opted out was because they no longer got cash from the Rangers. And I know for a fact that the White Sox wouldn’t have gotten any money from the Shields trade if he had opted out, and the Yankees don’t get any cash from the Marlins if Stanton opts out.
My point is that the A-Rod contract was a positive for the Rangers. Unless of course you are of the belief that tanking is better than trying and failing to make the playoffs. But that runs contrary to the other comments you have posted.
Tanking? No. It defies the very spirit and meaning of competition.
Rangers fans loved the signing. Jeez, they led the AL in most offensive categories for those three years.
I’ll say it again: management (Hicks) completely failed the team by not taking the next steps after signing him. After three years of losing, ownership had seen enough. They felt choked by the contract, and obviously had lost confidence in Hicks.
And yes, they still had to pay the Yankees their 60+ million.
Again: What is your point?
They weren’t choked by the contract considering they were able to shed it via trade.
My point is the same thing it was the last time you asked.
I wouldn’t call it “shedding” if they had to pay $67 million to get rid of it. That’s a completely specious argument.
Your point? I still don’t know what it is. More than once I stated mine clearly and concisely, regarding a similar big signing with lack of follow through by management; it’s just the first step. All you’ve done is twist, dodge, and use irrelevant tangents to do what? I don’t know.
First off, I was unable to find any information regarding whether or not the Rangers still had to pay the Yankees if Rodriguez opted out. CBSNews said that the Rangers were paying $67m of the contract but said nothing about the breakdown of that money and what would happen if Rodriguez opted out (as mentioned before, other teams who traded players with opt-outs do/did not have to pay for the post-opt-out years if the player opts out, so it stands to reason that the Rangers would get a similar stipulation in the trade). And considering that the Rangers got an All Star in the trade in Soriano it wasn’t a complete salary dump.
I’ve stated my point multiple times. You just didn’t like it so you ignored it and asked the question again. You’re not getting another answer.
1) The Rangers wiil be paying Rodriguez until 2023. (One source says 2025).
2) The Rangers filed bankruptcy in 2010. Their largest unsecured creditor was A-Roid.
3) A-Roid’s contract was worth more than the franchise at the time.
4) Hicks couldn’t afford to take the next step in winning after jumping off the cliff for the best player in the game.
5) A-Roid told the NY Post he never would have agreed to the deal if he knew it was going to be “Me and 25 kids every year.” (Easy to say when you’re cashing the checks!)
6) Hicks was counting on increased attendance, ad revenues, and other revenue which never happened. IMO, because it was still a losing team.
7) All of which should serve as a lesson in what NOT to do, unless you’re able to take the next step in building a winner.
We’re apparently at an impasse, but thanks for a civil discussion.
1) Source?
2) Irrelevant
3) Irrelevant
4) Irrelevant
5) That was the biggest lie ever. He (like most free agents) went where the money was. He’d have signed with the freaking Marlins if they offered him the most money.
6) Irrelevant
7) Can say the same thing about the Angels and Trout
1) Business Insider, Dallas Morning News, ESPN
2, 3, 4) Irrelevant? In that case, you haven’t comprehended a thing. Goes to their rationale of NOT taking the next step.
5) Completely agree. His agent was Boras.
6) The rationale for an action is never irrelevant.
7) There is no commonality whatsoever.
Circular arguments are futile and pointless.
1. Was asking for a link
2. Them not taking the next step means they half-assed their attempts to build a quality team around Rodriguez. Or that they made other decisions that ended up being the wrong ones. Doesn’t make the Rodriguez contract a negative.
6. It doesn’t mean the Rodriguez signing was a failure. It means other things failed for them.
7. There is all the commonality. Both generational talents. Both signed to really big contracts but good enough to still provide surplus value on them. Both teams failed to put a winning team around them (Angels still technically have two years but I’d bet against them succeeding at this point). What am I missing?
The contract was a failure for them because they couldn’t or wouldn’t follow through. The bankruptcy tells the story. So does the W-L record. It’s not that hard to understand.
The Angels drafted and developed Trout. There is no commonality.
Links will have to wait until I get on my PC. You have google, right?
The Angels also couldn’t/wouldn’t follow through. Their W/L record also tells the story. The fact that one was a draftee and the other a free agent signing changes absolutely none of that.
Yes, it changes everything because there is zero comparison.
The Angels have tried to win, and even succeeded. I guess Zack Greinke, Albert Pujols, and Shohei Ohtani don’t count? There are more since Trout’s rookie season of 2011.
There’s a huge difference between between trying to win and being unable or unwilling to even make the attempt. I guess you think every team that tries to compete will actually win the WS? That’s a laughable assertion. That’s why the games are played; there are no guarantees.
Again, your comp is flawed from the get go. There is no commonality between A-Roid’s contract with the Ranger’s and how they handled the team, and Trout/Angels. None.
And don’t even bother comparing W-L records. The Angels have had 4 winning seasons with Trout, including a Division Title. You are trying to argue for the sake of arguing.
The Rangers tried to win in 2001-’03 as well. Whether or not they went about it the right way is a whole nother story.
The Angels have failed miserably during Trout’s tenure, only making the playoffs once and getting swept.
“I guess you think every team that tries to compete will actually win the WS?”
Well that obviously isn’t true. Every year most of the teams are trying to win a WS, but only one does.
There is every commonality between Rodriguez and Trout.
“You are trying to argue for the sake of arguing.”
Well if that’s not the pot calling the kettle black…
The Rangers did paractically nothing from ’01-’03. I stand by my orinal point.
You brought up the specious comparison of Trout and the Angels. And, as you pointed out, they did make the playoffs once, so now you’re even trying to move the goal posts to double down? Get real.
Angels have also done nothing in the 7 full years that they have had Mike Trout on the roster. You can Google “Angels waste Mike Trout” if you don’t wanna take my word for it.
Yes, they have. It’s still completely irrelevant, because your entire argument is a non-sequitur. Trying to comp A-Roids Texas contract with Trout and Angels?
“Bats are mammals. Bats can fly. Pigs are mammals. Therefore, pigs can fly!”
BTW, Trout has been with the Angels for eight years.
Lol now you are just being silly. A-Rod and Trout are exactly the same situation. Angels are one season away from having completely wasted Mike Trout. You’re lucky we’re the only ones still reading this thread otherwise you’d have people laughing at you rn.
You’d honestly be better off if you just admitted that you think teams that fail to win should just trade all their good players and shoot for high draft picks cuz that’s exactly what you are arguing.
Seven FULL years. 2012-2018
Actually, I stand corrected on the seven full years thing. Trout spent the first month or so of 2012 in the minors. Still did enough that year to win AL ROY by a landslide.
Not even close. It’s your tangent, your irelevant and unrelated comp, your fallacious argument … Good luck with that.
But now, I’m curious … how many World Series should the Angels have won?
Lol if you say so buddy.
No team “should” win any number of World Series. You could have a team with 8 Mike Trouts on the field and then 5 Kershaws in the rotation and nothing would be guaranteed. But Trout and Rodriguez both make winning the World Series more likely. Rangers would have been even worse if they hadn’t signed Rodriguez.
Duh, they would have been worse. As I already pointed out – more than once – offense wasn’t the problem. They made no effort to improve their league-worst pitching.
Exactly. But that didn’t make Rodriguez less valuable.
You’re right. Of course, I never said he wasn’t valuable. I specifically said he held up his end.
See? I made you agree with my statement that A-Rod was worth what he was being paid. Hence him opting out. He, like many players, wanted to be overpaid.
Since I never said he wasn’t, you may have the pyrric victory.
So since he was worth what he was being paid and was ultimately able to flipped for an All Star in Soriano, that means the contract was worth it 🙂
I’ve said several times that he did what was expected. My beef is with the organization: Hicks and Melvin were copletely unwilling or unable to capitalize. They ended up paying $69MM to move about half the contract, and ended up in bankruptcy, forced to sell the team by 2010. A case can be made they couldn’t AFFORD that contract, but it wasn’t A-Roid’s fault, as I’ve said before.
That doesn’t make the contract a failure. It makes the Rangers FO/ownership at the time a failure.
No s–t Sherlock. That’s exactly what I’ve been saying.
No, you did say that the contract was a failure.
“The contract was a failure for them because they couldn’t or wouldn’t follow through. The bankruptcy tells the story. So does the W-L record.”
Those were your words…
Precisely.
But 3 comments above this one you agreed with my statement that the Rangers’ failure to contend doesn’t make the A-Rod contract a failure but now you are saying it does again.
So which one is it?
Reading comprehension is not your friend, is it? Do I need to diagram the sentence for you? What do you think ” … failure FOR THEM” means?
C’mon, man.
It means it hurt them more than it helped them which simply isn’t true. Unless you think Rodriguez’s production in 2001-2003 as a Ranger meant absolutely nothing in which case you could apply that logic to any All Star on a non-contender.
His production did mean absolutely nothing to them, because they didn’t take the next step(s) to win. It didn’t help in wins, it didn’t even help in attendance. And it actually hurt financially. Ergo: no benefit. As detailed ad infinitum.
You probably shouldn’t talk about logic until you’re familiar it: All 30 teams have an All-Star, therefore … another non-sequitur. (Don’t make me spell out the logical fallacy inherent in your statement).
You’re just being ridiculous now. I hope it’s intentional.
The Angels haven’t taken the next step to win with Trout, he hasn’t helped them win games and has hurt them financially. So he hasn’t benefited them either.
Again, you would be better off just admitting that you think there is no benefit to having a great player on your team if you don’t make the playoffs because that’s exactly what you are saying.
Guess I should have said “any perennial All Star.” But you know what I meant either way.
I’d say the same to you. It’s your fault and not mine that you don’t see the contradiction in your narrative.
That is absoltely not what I’m saying, or have said. Seriously – reading comprehension? Maybe you should review what I’ve said. Logic? Please. You’re trying to make a comp where there is none to be made at any level. It’s a cleverly disguised straw man, but really a non-sequitur.
Yes it is. You are saying that the A-Rod contract hurt the Rangers because the team sucked during the years that he was on the team. By that logic, the Trout contract hurt the Angels.
That is wrong. Preller is working as a mastermind. Hes not worried at all. He saved us after the 2015 letdpwn, amf actually helped us walk away with a little bit of a win. And now, hes a few signings, and a few trades from people calling him Epstien. If this goes south, I believe Preller has a back up plan, and will be able to cover himself, along with turning it into lemonaid.
Preller is a “mastermind?”
Wow. I don’t know whether to roll my eyes, shake my head, or laugh at that comment. So, I’ll do all three.
Padred have a good club with a great farm system. For all the talk of Preller’s signings, he has stocked the farm.
“Padres have a good club” Ugh, they most certainly don’t…
Is this supposed to be sarcasm?
69 wins projected with machado
We still have no pitching. Pirela and Mitchell are still on the roster. Yes, we have a ways to go.
At least we are not doing the taking any steps back. Machado is definitely a step forward from any other available FA’s. Anybody can talk about “what ifs” but for now, he’s a step in the right direction. Pirela and Mitchell will be out soon. IMO. It’s a new day in Padre land.
Yup. I said that in another post. Definitely a step in the right direction.
wrong, Machado just bumped them to 80 wins. Do you read or are you just all hate?
80 wins? Because some blogger said so? In the last 24 hrs I’ve seen “projection” ranging from 67 to 77, but nothing near 80. Sure, why play any games when we have projections! We also have “prospects!”
Let’s lift our noses out of Preller’s backside long enough to go buy those WS tickets! After all, it’s a done deal!
Fangraphs is just some blogger?? Some of us read other sites along with this rumormill.. Sites with fun stuff like facts and stats with educated folks giving neutral unbiased opinions.
We come here to laugh at the angry trolls like you
Most sites are saying that Manny gives the Padres an extra 6-8 wins this year. Pushing the original estimation of 70 something wins to 80
Maybe try something like hewkd ohn phonix?? seriously dude..
He built the best farm in 2 years. He has signed the top free agent 2 years in a row. Doing his job and doing it well
What about this is desperate?
Machado makes every Padre better offensively. There is now a feared bat in the line-up and that will change a lot of things. Hosmer gets more pitches to hit instantly with Manny batting around him
And so many other big contracts like Kemp, etc. mistake… manny will get hurt in the first two years and miss 25% of the games in his contract..
If only the Padres had your crystal ball during negotiations
Machado has only missed like 11 games in four seasons. Thats a pretty wild prediction on your part.
637 games out of 648.
The dudes a gladiator.
Your comment shows your ignorance.
If you’re going to fault the guy at least pick something that makes sense.
Back to the drawing board.
Missed only 6- games in 2013 (massive knee injury in September)
Missed only 82- games 2014 (Massive knee injuries August)
I’m sure he’s ok now
Probably
Machado is a completely different player than Hosmer and I feel they got fair value. With that said I am interested to see what that park might do to his numbers. But congrats to the Friars for actually trying to put a winner out there. It’s so disheartening to see these tanking teams not care about the product they put on the field
Petco plays pretty close to neutral. You’re relying on old outdated propaganda.
I think you hope he puts up huge numbers the next 5 years & he opts out. Then you become St Louis & not the LAA! CBA will address cap on years of contracts to 7 or 8 years this is why Harper & Machado are pushing for 10 years now. All MLB contracts signed for 7 years or more have been disastrous.
First Alex Rodriguez deal was pretty productive.
I think they’d succeed at a higher rate if everyone could take steroids to aid in strength and recovery like AROD did.
The A-Rod deal with Texas? It was only “productive” to his wallet. The Rangers never won more than 73 games during his three years with them.
Man, you are so full of hate. Just straight madness 24/7 out of your mouth hotdawg
How anyone disputes that contract is beyond me. Texas decided to rebuild and shopped him. At least 3 teams wanted that contract. The Yankees were so happy about the deal that they extended him a new one, just as lucrative as the first one
What is wrong with you? Do you “hate” everyone who doesn’t share your opinion, and worship in the cult of Preller?
You obviously have no clue why the Rangers signed A-Rod, and are completely oblivious to how teams build. If you really want to talk about that deal, you should probably do some research first, because it’s obvious you don’t remember what a big deal it was. The fact you said Texas “decided to rebuild” and “shopped him” also points to your lack of knowledge regarding baseball at that time.
And no, I don’t like Preller. Or anybody else who thinks they can get away with cheating. You and him are birds of a feather?
Wait, so they didn’t shop A-rod?
They didn’t go into full rebuild after shipping him out??
Dude you are so full of chit that you create 5 or 6 accounts and use them to push your b.s. and upvote yourself! ridiculous, get a life ryan, or is rooster? Maybe kwflanne? ridiculous!
I don’t agree with SDHotDawg or Ryan on most of the things they say but are you seriously accusing them of being the same person after this happened?
mlbtraderumors.com/2019/01/padres-checked-in-on-fo…
After he was called out for just that? yes, yes I am
I find it odd that not only did he not stop with the weird antics but he added to his ever growing arsenal of screen names
pathetic and total waste of time. At least offer some differing opinions or something new. Going around yelling at everyone and downvoting with different sn’s is just pathetic
You are so off base. I’m sorry that you aren’t emotionally equipped to handle disagreement, but I only need one screen name.
I also don’t really care much about up- or downvotes. That’s the province of those who who are so weak they feel the need for validation anywhere they can get it.
That other person you mentioned has been outed – more than once.
You’re missing the point. SDHotDawg and Ryan have been at each other’s throats constantly for the past few months. Are you trying to say that that was all a cover-up or something?
I have a screen shot of Steve Adams outing Ryan’s multiple alters, and confirming my one. I just can’t figure out how to post it.
Man, that kid could push my buttons.
Kinda creepy of you to care that much that you take a screenshot and try to post it, but whatever.
And idk about multiple alters. Steve only said he and rooster were the same person. Weirdly enough you get a pending for typing either of their usernames now.
Well, he’s been suspended before. Maybe now he’s banned? I took the screenshot to shut down any future arguments or attacks with him. A link would require scrolling through dozens, sometimes hundreds of posts.
Check again, he accused me of being somebody else (or two), and Steve confirmed different IPs. Yeah, that’s not the same as confirming only one, but …
Finding a link only takes 15 seconds if you know how to Google the right keywords.
I’m staring at the conversation right now. You said Steve outed Ryan’s “multiple alters” but he only said one.
My bad. More than one is “multiple” in my world. And, for the record, I really don’t care since I haven’t had to deal with him for a while. Seriously.
There won’t be a cap put on years in the CBA for length of contract.
I think the negative comments regarding Machado are unwarranted, his numbers speak for themselves. He’s a stud. I expect a 26 year old to say dumb stuff now and again. What I saw in his on field behavior with the Dodgers was unfortunate but I attribute it to a fiery competitor. The Friars just got better and with a great farm system look to be making a push to be contenders. If i was a Padres fan I’d be stoked the FO is willing to go out and make it happen.
@batty I agree.
Matt Holliday deal was for 7 and was pretty productive.
No, you hope he puts up huge numbers then DOESN’T opt out. That way, you either have a superstar signed for below market value or a valuable trade chip.
Yup, that IS the hope. I think a lot of those decisions will be based on winning. Maybe even winning championships.
Nope. Opt-out decisions are based on money and money alone. Cases like A.J. Burnett with the Phillies are the exception, not the rule.
Well, that’s hard to argue. Money always matters.
Yup. People said that James Shields and Ian Kennedy would opt out if their team wasn’t contending regardless of how much they were actually worth. That was a lie.
We still like to believe in the fantasy that players are loyal to their team and city.
Why would they go down playing in San Diego vs kc
Plus manny put up decent numbers in la and their stadiums play the same
Not at Dodger Stadium he didn’t. And he was dismal in the playoffs.
He hit 182 in the WS when the Dodgers needed him the most. 213 overall counting playoffs. I think had he carried the Dodgers like and played well he would have been signed a lot earlier. and for more. A 182 WS hitter is just not worthy of 30 mil and for 10 years.! Very strange times for Baseball.
I give up…Bad player. Overpay. You guys win…
@Dodgerbear
Machado DID hit well @ Dodger Stadium with a slash of .279/.360/.514 with 7 homers in 29 games. It literally takes 2 seconds to find the real numbers instead of pulling false narratives out your keister. .
@bigrickdeeman
in 1922 Babe Ruth hit .118/.250/.176 in 21 AB
Mike Trout hit .083/.267/..333 in 15 PA.
Judging a player by what they do in a short-series is a poor way to evaluate a player.
Well, he did turn a sure double off the wall into a single when the Dodgers needed him most. “Johnny Hustle” in the World freaking Series. He disrespected his teammates and the game.
Other than that, I’m glad he’s a Padre.
I don’t believe you are glad about anything dawg..
Believe what you want. Baseball needs its casual, myopic, unthinking fans like you.
@southbeachbully glad someone made this point.
easy. lower the wall or bring it in and install more cheap seats.
this was bad deal machado he could had nice big pay chek with grate chicago team but sporned them to be neer home in san diego. we all seen a ton of bad 300 million deal and no they never work and as all player never hit homers in san diego jajajajaja
kinda hard to judge without knowing all the details yet
I think we know the essential details. $300MM, none deferred, spread approximately evenly, with an opt-out at the halfway point and limited no-trade protection.
In general, for contracts that have limited no-trade protection, are the teams the player has the option to reject a trade to known publicly (like how we know the 15 teams for Greinke) or is that something not typically disclosed?
they don’t usually disclose it till time to trade away.
I think he’s overrated, but I get why SD pulled the trigger on it. I think he’ll do well. Now, if Harper will join him in the NL West w/ the Giants 😀
I was just thinking the same thing! But I’m also scared that we’d break the bank on one player when we have a lot of issues to solve.
Just curious how you feel he is overrated? There is a short list of players who have accumulated his career WAR by their age 26 season. I would prefer to have Machado on a 10 year contract than Harper based on body, position played, defensive ability, and consistency on offense.
WAR is not a stat.
Overpay, but strategically so. Not bad for the Padres. I’m just glad he’s not a Phillie.
Let’s do this, Bryce!!
yeah, phillies were so happy to see him go to the padres!
Wait, you want the Phillies to sign Harper? Are you a Phillies fan? I am, and I want no part of Harper.
If you want to talk about a player who is overrated and hyped, and is due to get a historical overpay, it’s Bryce Harper. He’s had one monster season, which right now looks like an outlier. The rest of the time he’s been, on average, a 2.9 – 3.6 WAR player, depending on which source you trust.
That is not a profile of a guy who looks like he’ll live up to the contract. My fear is it will be Ryan Howard redux.
I wanted Manny, and am disappointed the Phillies didn’t get him. He’s much more consistent, and a better player than Harper.
Harper is trying to leverage one monster season into a record contract, and the team that gives it to him are fools.
So a guy who is only 26 and hasn’t reached his prime yet averages 3 WAR a season. 1 WAR is estimated to be worth something around $7.5M, so he’s been worth about $23M per year, before hitting his prime. Presumably he’ll get better, plus being in a hitters park at CBP, and I don’t see how this is an awful idea.
You buy into the misinterpretation of fangraphs also. One WAR is not “worth” $7.5MM, and teams don’t pay that for every WAR. But that’s another discussion.
Besides, Harper is not signing for 24MM
You need to look at aging curves. Harper is as likely to go sideways or decline as he is to get better.
Lastly, he’s only averaged 132 games/season in his career. roughly 80%.
That’s not someone I want to give record breaking money.
The misuse of WAR has dumbed down the conversation. Harper’s WAR is low because of his defense, which is not to say defense doesn’t matter. However, judging him for his offensive ability, he is nothing short of elite. He has a career .900 OPS which ranks him 7th among all active players behind:
Trout, Votto, Cabrera, Pujols, Goldschmidt and Stanton,
Let’s cease this argument that he’s not an elite overall player. He’s an amazing bat with poor defensive value. I’m not saying defense doesn’t matter but when a guy can have a “down year” and still hit 34 hrs and draw 130 walks that’s a pretty amazing player. Stick him in a corner spot, perhaps LF and let him rake.
Imo, teams not wanting to pay Manny nor Bryce $300 mil has nothing to do with them NOT being worth a aav in the $30 mil range. It’s about the inherent risk of a 10 year deal for ANY player including Trout as the risk of a significant injury is just as concerning as eventual decline in the latter years of the deal.
Elite overall player means he can play the field well too.
Red Sox Martinez is an elite hitter but is he an elite player?
Harper evidently has hustle problems and perhaps is not viewed well by his teammates,at least from what I have read.I do not know for sure of course.
He has been a leader of a team that has consistently under achieved in the regular season and playoffs.Is he really a leader?
For $30 M a year I would expect him to be such.
Perhaps these considerations are being weighed by the teams interested in him also.
I would agree that he is an elite hitter,and a very good overall player,but let’s not put him in the HOF just yet.
WAR is a pseudo-stat, used by some people to make themselves sound more knowledgeable and “in the know.”
It should absolutely, positively NEVER be used as the sole “number” by which to judge or compare players.
so you’re saying he’s elite in only the offensive part of the game. He must be elite on both sides to be considered elite. Right now, he’s just a good/great (not even that-mostly streaky) offensive baseball player
Actually it’s a stat who’s sole purpose is to give you the ability to compare the objective value of two players with different strengths by assigning a set value to various statistically provable skills
So as a comparative tool it’s quite useful because it takes guesswork and opinion out of it
As a projection tool it’s lacking, which is where most people trip themselves up when using it as the ultimate stat.
Well said, but I’ll still go with what Bill James says about it … “failed attempt.”
1) There are competing versions and formulae.
2) The math itself does not pass muster for statistical validity: it’s a derivative of derivatives which compounds errors.
3) It relies on flawed defensive analytics which are still being argued about in SABR circles. Even Fangraphs admits defensive analytics are a “work in progress,” and Bill James has pointed out the immence variances inherent in the numbers between defensive positions.
WAR is a cute little number, but it shouldn’t be taken as seriously as some think.
It’s an admirable (if flawed) attempt to quantify things that are hard to quantify. We can throw around more objective stats all we want but the reality is that players all have different strengths and weaknesses. Take for example, Noah Syndergaard being near the top in most rate stats but not making as many starts as most “aces” because he’s always injured. WAR attempts to determine how valuable each individual player is with all that considered.
suddendepth…….
Harper last 5 years bWAR 18.6 (includes his MVP year) 670 games .282/.401/.525 142 HR 620 K’s 468 BB’s
Machado last 5 years bWAR 25.5 719 games .283/.343/.502 154 HR 518 K’s 258 BB’s
Career splits Harper vs RHP 2782 PA .288/.402/.543…vs LHP 1175 PA .258/.354/.442
Career splits Manny vs RHP 2963 PA .282/.333/.491… vs LHP 1111 PA .284/.342/.474
Harper walks more, Machado is more consistent and has a better overall game. I’m with “nonadhominem” on this. If The Phillies are willing to spend $300m on a player they will regret not signing Machado over Harper. Reports are the baseball ops FO people wanted Manny but the owners want Harper because he is more “marketable”
If Middleton agrees to sign Harper then it’s not his money that is stupid.
It will be a clear sign his family wasted the money on that Amherst degree and Harvard MBA.
I would love for the Phils to sign Harper… imagine when they’re on a losing streak and Bryce doesn’t run out a grounder or loligags and misses an easy pop out. I can’t wait!
I think Machado is the better of the two “MVP caliber” free agents this winter, but even then, he’s pretty far away from MVP. He finished 2017 with a .310 OBP, for Christ’s sake.
So I think this is an overpay. Not because I’m opposed to the idea of giving someone $300M, far from it: I think Arenado deserves it, and is gonna get it either now or next winter. And then Betts and Trout will get even more.
It’s just an overpay for Machado’s particular set of skills. He’s an ace with the glove at third, but he’s not an elite hitter. As for Harper, he’s just a one dimensional player. Whoever signs him is gonna have a hard time converting him into on field value. They’re gonna sell a lot of shirts, but they’re not gonna win anything, because he’s a liability in the outfield, and gives away most of the value he produces with the bat (when the bat is on, because even that is a question mark at times).
Out of the two Harper is the elite bat, but you are right about his defense. While it’s not going to be as bad in the short term as it’s been described, the out years are going to be painful. If he goes to Philly the “move him to 1B” plan is blocked as long as Rhys is around.
You might want to look at the numbers before you call Harper the “elite bat” seriously!! Also factor in the Machado missed a good portion of a season with that ankle injury! Machado’s numbers are equal or better in most catagories all while playing on the dirt.
DH might come to NL soon.
“might” is the key word.
I wouldn’t bet against it.
what do you mean about moving him to 1B? if you thought Philly’s idea was to move either of the two to 1B you were out of your mind.
@DarkSide830, this was an option proposed by his agent to make him appear more palatable to NL teams. It was not Philly specific: mlb.com/news/bryce-harper-could-play-first-base/c-…
I thought this was mainly aimed at the Yankees to sign Harper, and since there was no bite they stopped talking about it. He is a corner outfielder.
Agree. Overpay as they will be lucky to win 80 games next year. Was too early for them to make this type of commitment.
So don’t ever go for it? Or are you saying only the elite teams should have been in on him??
Machado also had ZERO triples in 2014. ZERO!!!!
So!
Harper has zero triples in 18, ZERO!!!
HAHAHA, thats what you are going with, he had ZERO triples 5 years ago?
Come on man – you seriously whooshed that easily?
I think this is a joke making fun of the guy who cited the 2017 OBP right????
Correct. Thank you Wolverines
Made me laugh…crazy people man…
Machado isn’t an “elite hitter”?? Are you serious?? And “he’s an ace at third” while he had the worst UZR rating?? You sure you understand the game at all?? I’m not even saying I agree with dealcor not. However you wrote three paragraphs like you have superior knowledge except for the fact none of what you stated is close to valid. Armchair GM talk here has gone way overboard!
In defense of Stansfield he said that Machado is an “ace at third” and by UZR rating he was one of the best at third. Palma I think you’re confusing Machado‘ work at shortstop with third. Machado, by most accounts was below average at short but elite defensively at third.
Machado is no longer elite at 3rd base. His defense has been in decline since the minor leagues as he’s bulked up.
Machado went on a diet and improved his conditioning before last season and it seems like his defensive value rebounded (only because he wasn’t a negative at SS), but fans will have to wait for this year and next to see if his weight continues growing and his defense continues declining now that he’s been paid.
Machado was playing third consistently through 2017. He did have a somewhat down year in 2017 at third but still was well above average. From 2012 to 2016 he was absolutely elite at third.
Machado is ELITE at 3B, he still has 2 gold gloves there and is 26 years old lol… the guys not a fossil. You guys crack me up. As if he’s so old and lost a step, the dudes 26, and played 637 games out of 648… don’t give me this declining cra p.
Last two years, Machado ranks 36th in wRC+, in the majors. He’s just behind Marwin Gonzalez. He has a 122 wRC+. Meanwhile, the elite hitters (Trout, Martinez, Judge) are above 160.
It’s not like I’m picking on the wrong sample size, either. His last two years are representative of his career 121 wRC+. That’s the hitter he is. Has ups and downs, and they average out there. In San Diego, that’s gonna be an OPS around .810, by the way.
I guess you missed the report about SD moving the fences in years ago…..
Why do dumb narratives get pushed so hard??? It’s a ballpark, get over it. Baseball has always encouraged the ballparks to be unique, it’s part of baseball’s charm
I’ll add one last thing: it’s a pretty team friendly market out there. So I like what the Yankees did, staying away from the top 3 free agents, and picking out the best deals instead.
They added a lot of value, and extreme levels of upside (Paxton, Britton, Ottavino and LeMahieu all have sky high upside), without committing a single cent past 2021. They could still sign Kimbrel or Keuchel, btw., if their price drops.
If you compare that kind of spree (four guys I mentioned, plus Happ, Sabathia and Gardner) to this move, they compare very favorably. And they come at a fraction of the cost.
So, honestly, I don’t get why the Padres didn’t go out and acquire a similar set of 5-6 players, by spending both money and prospects. They would’ve been a much better team than they are with Machado. He’s good, but he’s just one guy, surrounded by a last place team. And yes, I get that they have a lot of high end prospects. Odds are, those guys are gonna hit their prime as Machado drops off (or opts out, whichever comes first). Right now, they don’t have a winning team.
The padres don’t want quantity. They want quality. That is the front office mo and they have been doing the same with the draft. There was a time when the old front office and ownership would get bodies for cheap sign ability. That’s what they drafted Matt bush over Justin verlander
While I agree that going with a series of smaller moves was better for a team like the Yankees, it’s not really a fair comparison. The Yankees already have star players (Judge, Stanton) and guys that have high potential for being stars (Sanchez, Andujar, Torres) and they won 100 games last year. World Series champions, especially the recent ones, generally have an MVP or MVP candidate with a good team around them. Who did SD have to build around? Hosmer and Myers get paid like stars, but neither is getting close to an MVP anytime soon. One of their prospects could pan out, but there is a far higher chance Manny puts up an MVP caliber season in the next 5 years or so than one of the prospects. SD obviously isn’t winning a WS this year, but I think they set themselves up better for a run in the near future.
San Diego isn’t a place of lot of players want to play….considering they finished in last place and all. An extra year or an extra $2-3m per year isn’t going to land most players over their preferred destination.
Hosmer & Machado disagree
You are overrating those signings by a lot. But we will see.
Machado has always been a better bat and defender than Harper. When you pay for Harper You get an excellent bat but it’s also the Harper “brand” you are paying for as well
The Harper brand isn’t worth 300+MM, unless you just care about hype.
Hey, I hear Milli Vanilli is re-releasing music!
Milli Vanilli is re-releasing (someone else’s) music!
I can cherry pick stats too. Bottom line is that he has the highest War through the age 25 season than all Hall of Famer’s. I don’t get how he is not an elite hitter lol
WAR is not solely based on hitting…
Marius do you like to make things up. Not even looking but I would be willing to bet Griffey Jr. had higher war then Machado through age 25 why do you make things up? It’s silly and you can easily be called out, highest war of any hall of famer before 25 dude you crack me up.
Marius you can cherry pick false facts but in the age of the internet you can’t just spout bull…. This is by no way a comprehensive list I just picked a couple of players who came to mind. Machado 33.8 WAR Griffey Jr 45.4 WAR Henry Aaron 38.7 WAR Ty Cobb 54.1 WAR all through the age 25 season.I know in this political age it’s the flavor of the month to spout fake news but please try to keep it to a minimum
Harper: 927 games played, 30.7 WAR.
Machado: 926 games played, 30.2 WAR.
How would a team have trouble converting Bryce Harper into on field value?
Harper is an elite bat who runs the bases well and who has inconsistent defensive performances.
Machado makes up the difference between their bats and baserunning with stellar D.
Harper was an elite bat for three out of seven seasons, unless your definition of elite is different that most folks. He also is not going to give you any defensive value.
He’s been hyped since the SI article when he was a teen and has lived up to the hype for exactly one out of seven seasons.
He’s had an rWAR under 2 as often as he’s had one over 5.
He’s Mr. Inconsistent, and elite bats are not inconsistent. The team that signs him is going to be looking at a LOT of really dead money.
Stay away Klentak – stay away.
@nonadhominem you make good points. The way I see it is that he has a career wRC+ of 140. Since he came into the league, among active players with at least 2500 plate appearances, he’s 8th. He’s not Trout or Votto, but I see him as an elite bat as he resides in the top 10 since entering the league. He’s probably equivalent to Stanton as a hitter, though he derives his offensive value differently – some would say he’s a more cerebral hitter. His profile of high walks and league average-ish strikeouts should hold up better than Stanton’s offensive profile, although Stanton’s quality of contact will continue to propel him (see Cruz, Nelson). Stanton was definitely a better fielder, although Harper’s two, poor defensive seasons immediately followed an injury-laden campaign (not that that’s conclusive of anything, but there’s a non-zero chance he’s still an average defensive outfielder).
Having said all of this, I don’t expect him to get as much as Stanton, but I think he gets machado money. I would also like to add that if I was a GM, unless I was the Phillies, I would stay away from both of these guys. But I still disagree with the original commenter’s assessment that whomever signs harper will have a difficult time converting him into on field value.
You say Harpers offense should hold up better then Stantons yet in 2 of the last 3 years Harper has hit less then 250.. Stanton on the other hand has hit a 281 and 266 in the last 2 years. Stanton has also hit 97 hrs in the last two years Harper has hit 87 in his last 3 years. If anything Harper seems to be proving he might not continue hitting at a great pace. The stats you point to are skewed greatly by Harpers MVP year when he hit 330 with 42 hrs. In every year Stanton played over 135 games he’s hit 34 hrs or more. In Harpers entire career he’s only reached 34 hrs twice. I truly don’t think Harper is the hitter Stanton is
Last year, Stanton’s wRC+ was 127. Harper’s was 135. Accounting for league and ballpark, harper was the better hitter. That’s not even my opinion, that’s a number that has no subjectivity. We can quibble about park factors, but Harper’s season was better. For their career wRC+, Stanton is at 142 and Harper is at 140. So yeah, they’re about the same and considering Stanton’s strikeout rate, I’d bet on them remaining equal or maybe giving harper the edge.
wRc+ relies heavily on obp in which Harper excels. He walks a lot. Last year Brandon Nimmo had a 149 wRc+ . If you want to pay a huge salary for a player who walks a lot give Nimmo a 350 million dollar contract. I prefer a guy who consistently hits 35 hrs while batting 270.You obviously prefer a guy who hits 20-30 hrs consistently and walks a lot. Stanton put up most of his hrs in Florida not NY and that is far from a hitters ballpark
in baseball reference Machado’s WARi s 33.8 andHarpers is 27.4a nd that 27.4 includes one year of 10.2
There are 3 public WAR valuations. I choose fangraphs’ WAR because I understand how it’s calculated and can replicate the formulas in excel for my own projections. It also matters what defensive metric you prefer DRS v UZR, but I’ll admit to not grasping all the idiosyncrasies of each 100%. For what it’s worth, machado’s baseball prospectus war also exceeds Harper’s by 2.7 wins. Considering all error bars, it’s safe to say that they’ve produced equal value or machado has been slightly better.
Nolan Arenado has a CAREER .318 OBP on the road.
Arenado also hit .248 on the road last year. Manny is an elite player
Of all of the stats available over 6 seasons you cherry picked a single season’s OBP – and not even the most recent season. Hilarious.
Harper can likely drive in 100 RBI and score 90-100 Runs. How is he giving away more runs than he created? Think about what you just said. Harper will win you more games with his bat than he would give up with his glove and not all of his mistakes will result in a run scored. Stop it please.
If he would take a shorter term deal (which he won’t now because of Manny’s deal) then I’d want my Yanks in on him to play LF.
Other fish in the sea.
The links for mobile app are not available.
I’ll add them in a moment.
Players go to die in San Diego. Have fun.
Guessing you never heard of agon, caminiti, Vaughn, Finley, klesko, Gwynn, b Giles, nevin, bento, or so forth
Guessing you should have said, “Gwynn, or so forth …”
I was like Bento? Benito Santiago? The guy with the career .722 OPS. He had a .709 OPS at Jack Murphy btw. (gives side eye look).
When was the last time you saw a catcher throw a runner out from his knees???
Benito paralysed runners. They flat out stopped running on him. When his contract was up he was highly coveted. Catchers and pitchers tend to get a pass offensively…
I’m guessing by year 3-4 of this deal that the Padres regret this signing and try to trade him. I cant imagine him being there for 10 seasons.
I agree with you wholeheartedly. I don’t mind the AAV so much, but the years are the overpay in my mind.
He will be younger than Cano is right now when the deal is done. I don’t have an issue with the years
The years are what convinced him to consider the Padres…
Who cares about Machado? I was hoping he would’ve left the NL and went back to the AL. Now, my team has to face him 18 or 19 games a year. But, on the other hand, I can’t wait until Bumgardner throws at him and Machado starts a brawl.
Gross Overpay is more like it. What the heck are the Padres doing? What the heck is Manny doing? Seems that winning is not something he prefers to do, would rather just sit back and make a ton of money. Which is good and all, but, it makes no sense. I realize that they have the #1 farm system, but none of those prospects have been brought up to get acclimated to playing in the big leagues.. It was a dumb signing, no doubt. and I can pretty much guarantee that his homerun totals will go down. Petco is one of the 10 toughest parks to hit a homerun out of.
They moved the walls in years ago and Petco has since been roughly league average in terms of HR’s.
Its still one of the tougher ones to hit one.
Not for right handed batters. And in addition to the fences being brought in, construction around the ballpark has prevented wind from being a factor that it was early on. Elite hitters haven’t had any trouble hitting homeruns in Petco. Neither have one dimensional power hitters like Hunter Renfroe. So many experts about San Diego applying their memories and assumptions despite the fact that they are not watching games.
Dead on Wolverines
The only thing killing home runs is late night games when the ocean breeze starts bringing in dense humid air. And to be fair, that doesn’t happen year round and usually is only a real issue late night
The prevailing winds blow out, if anything that park placement helps the long ball. Chit, just ask opposing hitters how hard it is to homer…..Seems to happen a few times a night against us!
On average, over the last 3 years, Petco has a HR factor of 95 for right handed hitters. That makes it the 7th hardest park for righties to hit HR in. Machado will also have to deal with hitting in LA and San Fran. Having said all that, and considering your valid point about legit power bats still performing in Petco (renfroe) I don’t think we’ll see too many HR taken off Manny’s total. He’ll still be a 30+ HR guy. I’m thinking .277, 34 2B, 33 HR, 122 wRC+ and 4.5-5.5 WAR? The Padres should be very happy with where they’re at right now.
I believe the Padres are trying to win baseball games and Machado is trying to get paid to do it for them.
At some point every team has to pay to become legit contenders, since building a complete team from just prospects is not really feasible.
The Padres took advantage of a weak market to get the kind of player they’d need to sign at some point at a good price.
The reason why the market is the way it is is because of teams like the Padres. When no other team was willing to shell out that much money to land Manny, the dumb Padres say, hey, if we overpay, we can get him!!!! Thus the cycle continues. Instead of Manny going to a contender at a decent AAV, he went to a pretender for an outlandish amount of money. The market will never correct itself because you will always have teams like the Padres thinking they are ready to contend, spending ill advised money.
Oh ok…sorry San Diego didn’t curl up into a ball and let the Dodgers, Yankees, or Red Sox get him. Stay tuned buddy…
The market didn’t need correcting. players at the top end are being paid very much in line with the money they actually generate for their teams. Players below them are actually getting under paid.
You seem to be basing your entire opinion of this contract based on the perception of what a player should be paid that’s not based on factual data.
So which is it? The Padres are bottom feeders that don’t spend and don’t have the money to spend because of their small market…..Or the Padres are the big spenders ruining the market?
Neither makes sense. But go ahead complain for the sake of complaining
The Padres be damned if they do & damned if they don’t!
People said the same thing about Werth when he signed with the Nationals and when Lester signed with the Cubs. Look at the bigger picture and when their window will be open
Get acclimated lol? Machado’s contract is specifically matched up with the timing of all these top prospects coming up, Tatis Jr. is the closest thing to a “sure thing” prospect that there is in the game, he will be up in May. Urias has already proven he can handle playing 2B more than adequately at the ML level and many experts are projecting him as a future .300 hitter with speed to burn. With Machado, Tatis Jr., Urias, and Hosmer across the board in the infield, that immediately gives you one of the best infields in the National League.
The Padres currently have 13 pitchers with a 50+ scout rating, and by far the most pitching depth in the Minor Leagues, if just 2 or 3 of those guys hit and pay dividends, they are set. That’s a pretty safe bet. Plus they can always add a Keuchel or a Gonzalez, or I’d even like to see a flier for Buchholz (if healthy) who quietly put together a 7-2, 2.01 campaign last year.
Your comment is ignorant if you can’t see the big picture.
The Padres ownership is not the ownership we’re accustomed to, thus regime is much different, with a GM who has some balls. And they’re finally doing it right, building from within, with by far the best farm system in baseball, while also adding superstars around them that fit the timeline of their production. WAKE UP
Don’t even waste your time on these turds. They make fun of the Padres for not having stars, then we sign stars for market value, and they make fun of us again. Spoon fed trolls who live in a bubble with their unlimited resources have no idea what it’s like to lose. If the Yankees signed him at the same rate, fans would have been stoked. Hypocrisy at its finest. We’re talking about Manny Machado at 26 yrs old.
Exactly. I need to take some time off of this site. Its hurting my brain reading comments based around “analysis” that goes no deeper than “same old Padres” BS from someone who’s knowledge ends at watching Sports Center on the East Coast.
I’m a Yanks fan and even I didn’t want them to extend a 10 year deal to either. It has nothing to do with fandom. 10 year deals are risky and the Padres can’t absorb his contract should something drastically change in his performance.
That being said, baseball has complained about the Yanks, Sox and Dodgers outspending small market teams for elite players. You just got what you wanted and it could prove to be a good move for the Padres and their fans.
I’ll happily take 10 years of Machado!
An overpay but a solid move for the Padres franchise. They’re trying to end their rebuild and they have a loaded farm. Their moves from recent years are telling their fans that they’re trying win. Pretty much all of their top prospects are in line to come up within the next 1-3 seasons. They have a bright future and Machado gives them stability at SS/3B for the foreseeable
I believe they have been trying to end their rebuild for a few years now, and its not working. Manny will probably be traded before his opt out comes up.
Then that means we have a great prospect coming up behind him at Machados age 30 season. Did you see in your crystal ball if we got any high end prospects back? How much money did we eat? None? Oh ok. Thanks for your insight
Probably the least knowledgeable commenter that I have seen in a long time. Wow.
Machado is a very very good player, and because of his ability to play short and third, probably more valuable to many teams than Harper. He’s averaged 1 BWAR per 120 PAs, which is better than Harper’s (144), Neither is Trout ( ridiculous 1 Per 72) but very very good. He should provide good value through the first five seasons, and if he opts out, then Padres might very well be a double winner. Yes, of course it’s too much money, but this is still a very high quality player in his prime.
Lineup is now 3rd best in the NL West when it previously was 4th best, and the pitching is still the worst. Maybe some of their pitching prospect develop, maybe they don’t, they are kind of the key factor of whether the Padres are going to be good or not,
Their pitching stacks up against what the Giants will trot out there.
So you’re saying the it now goes Dodgers-Rockies-Padres-Diamondbacks-Giants.
The Padres have a legit star for the first time since Gonzalez. What doesn’t make sense or what we don’t know is they seem to have youth options at 3B, OF and C. Are they going to start dealing now? Which catcher starts and who gets sent down? Which OF starts and who gets sent down? Does Urias get moved to SS or does he start in the minors? What does this mean for Tatis?
The wasted opportunity was they could have had a nice youth swap with Atlanta before they filled in C and OF. Atlanta has a bevy of pitchers. It seemed like common sense.
SInce Gonzalez?? Guess Hosmer or Kimbrel do not count.
Hosmer is no “Star”, just vastly overpaid.
Hosmer isn’t near star material.
Urias will not be sent down.
Machado will likely play SS until Tatis Jr. is brought up in May. So Urias will be needed, and most likely stay at 2B. At least that’s my hope, you don’t need rookies moving around, trying new positions. Urias has more important things to worry about like facing ML pitching.
This is the interesting part, that leaves me to believe, the Padres will give Kinsler tons of reps at 3B. The guys never played there which creates a scary proposition but he did just win a gold glove so he might just surprise us with his ability there (at least that’s the optimist in me talking). At the very worst he has to stick it out until May (when Tatis Jr.) comes up, then he can return to the bench and be a solid bat late in the game and utility guy when needed or if Urias struggles.
Urias has been playing plenty of SS in the minors. Split time evenly last year.
But but but collusion……
The free agent market still has major problems. I’ve never had an issue with teams not wanting to dole out 10 year contracts for players with question marks like Machado, but when legitimate mid tier talent players are signing 1 year contracts and pre-arbitration players are signing team friendly deals while giving up years of free agency for next to nothing, there are major problems with the marketplace.
I think a lot of that comes from the changes in how teams evaluate players. I think there’s a severe misconception of what constitutes value in baseball these days, among fans.
On the pitching side, it’s no longer ERA. Especially not one year ERA. The greatest weight is given to the latest peripherals, especially strikeouts. But also BABIP, ground ball rate, etc. It goes even deeper than that, they look at pitch values, spin rate, study the pitcher’s motion, etc.
Look at Ottavino and Adam Warren: a 33 year old with a career 3.68 ERA (3.50 in the last two years) is not supposed to get an eight figure contract. In fact, he compares unfavorably to Adam Warren, who’s 32 and has a 3.42 career ERA, some of that as a starter (2.72 in the last two years, strictly as a reliever). Yet, Ottavino was considered one of the top relievers on the market, Warren not even close.
On the position player side, it’s even more complicated, because teams don’t just look at the player himself, they also look at what everyone else has done as they were getting older. And the picture ain’t pretty, the decline starts at age 30. And different types of players decline at different rates. So you have to really go in-depth to figure out why one 40 HR guy is getting released (Chris Carter, a couple of years ago, lead the NL in homers and was released at the end of the year), another one is getting one year deals even though he plays well on both ends of the ball, and, on the surface, there’s nothing wrong with him (Moustakas), and others (Machado, Harper, but also the two kids the Twins just extended) are business as usual. Especially the two guys on the twins: there’s nothing remarkable about their numbers, and yet, they got very nice extensions, considering how far away they were from free agency.
I guess time will tell if there’s any kind of slowdown in payroll spending, or the money is just being spend differently. We’ll know at the end of 2019, when final payrolls come in. My guess is, overall payroll spending will be at a record high. By a lot.
Those players most often have the option to either sign extensions, take qualifying offers or sign early in the off season. They take a gamble by waiting for better offers. Also, teams have farm systems for a reason. Theres no sense in having hundreds of guys in your farm system if you’re gonna be forced to sign free agents.
Pre Arb players who have performed well in the ML deserve more money.
Premium players are still getting paid a premium.
Mid tier talent players are getting paid less than previously,and clearly so.
One must remember,however,that these are all guaranteed contracts,and the market is moving to correct the overpayment of the many of the mid tier players who either do not perform or get injured.
The young players do not have to sign the “team friendly” guaranteed deals that they sign.These players become automatic guaranteed multi multi millionaires in their early twenties.Under the current bargaining contract they can become free agents in their late twenties.
Who in society other than athletes have these guarantees?
Pre-FA players sign extension for security. Has nothing to do with an unfavorable market for players.
Not collusion, just mass stupidity on the part of the owners…
To answer first question, it is a bargain compared to what he was supposed to sign. Personally, I feel somewhere between fair value and bargain. Guy has had 3 6+ WAR seasons and is only 26 YO. Even if his offense takes a hit playing in SD, his defense at 3B should provide plenty value. Hope Machado also matures a bit as he would be looked up by all those minor leaguers from SD farm.
As far as Padres are concerned, I think this is a nice complimenting move to their farm system. Hope they bring up their minor leaguers that are ready to contribute. I am fairly excited about seeing a competant Padres team again. That will only make NL West more fun to watch again.
White Sox should have made the same move. I am not too familiar with their farm system but I don’t think they could be too far from contention in that division with right moves.
As a Cubs fan, it pains me to say this, but the White Sox the best (if not the best) in the business, and many of their top guys are big league ready or close to it.
That’s good to know. Hope they start contending sooner rather than later. BTW I thought Padres had the best system of all teams, followed by ATL.
In the short-term, SD will reap the benefits of a superstar player. They’ll sell more tickets, sell more camo Machado jerseys and they continue to remain at the center of the MLB off-season buzz. Plus they might actually win a few more games too. All of which are significant elements to this kind of deal. The philosophy is to make back as much as they can early on and then take their chances w an aged player who can hopefully slide in as a DH. Obviously the later years will be where the risk lies, but hopefully they’ll have some pennants flying when that day comes.
Good move I guess, but they better score 6 runs a game. That starting staff is extremely flammable.
The reality is that Machado will be traded to the Yankees in 3-4 years and SD will continue to wallow in mediocrity.
More likely LA to replace Turner.
Glad you can predict the future, that’s a heckuva talent you got there.
Most ignorant outsiders don’t understand this is a completely different Padres regime, so I don’t blame you.
But c’mon people the Padres just signed the richest contract in North American sports history, and signed the biggest free agent contract last year, if that doesn’t tell you things have changed you’re not paying attention. This is not your dads Padres.
Exactly.
This has to sting for the south siders. First tatis, now machado…
Not disputing his ability, especially if he slots in at third defensively, …but, if it was my money, the trouble with this deal is I would expect the player to lead by example. Not sure Manny is that guy ….
We can’t really judge this contract until 10 years from now. If you do, you are just looking into a crystal ball. Many people said the same thing when Barry Bonds signed his deal. They also said it when Mike Hampton signed his. We will know in due time.
there’s a reason the team with more money than gawd didn’t re-sign him
Because they have Turner at third and Seager at shortstop?
As they say in the real estate world, it’s all about location, location, location. If the Padres and White Sox, both small market teams, a few years away from potential contention, were the only teams willing to offer up what he wanted, he ultimately wanted to head for the more desirable location.
This being said, the White Sox would have been better bet if he wanted to win. Assuming all went right in terms of player development, a core of Machado, Jimenez, Moncada, and Abreu could have been devastating for years to come.
Moncada who? Abreu?
When you spend 8 months on the road for work…..where you call home becomes less important
The guy wanted 10 years of guaranteed money and one team offered him that
For $300m I’d live anywhere!
As a White Sox fan, I’m disappointed though I’m happy he ended up in San Diego if not the Sox. The Padres will be great fun to watch coming soon. And to those who say they have no pitching, the Pads have like 13 pitching prospects with a scout rating of 50 or above; if two become elite and let’s say seven turn into major league back end starters they will be fine. They can also choose to sign Keuchel and trade some of that booty for a front end starter as well. Good luck in the coming season Padre fans, I’ll be watching you on MLBTV! (After the White Sox game is over, ha)
Great comment. People are not looking at the big picture. As long just a few of those pitching prospects come to fruition were fine. And we still have a lot of financial flexibility to add a Keuchel or Gonzalez. I wouldn’t even mind taking a little flier on Buchholz, who was 7-2, with a 2.01 last year, could sign him for 2-3 mil.
With Tatis Jr. being the closest thing to a sure thing prospect, and Urias already proving he can hang at the ML level, this infield could easily turn into the best in the National League. Machado, Tatis Jr., Urias, Hosmer, I like the sound of that. Young athletic talent, that all have the ability to do offensive damage and also potentially with a solid season acquire a gold glove. This should be fun at the very least.
I would be VERY shocked if he is there the full 10 years
depends on his performance the next few years and the next CBA. Just two years ago we’d all say this was a resounding bargain, even with the large number of years. If the next CBA remarkably changes the FA system back to how it was at that time, Machado might test his luck at someting like 6 years 200+
It’s pretty simple… If he thinks he can make more he will opt out. Just look at the history of these opt outs.. Guys have opted out of their contracts on ws contenders for more money
They all want to win. But money trumps everything in this world
I also wonder how much the time spent in the minors playing for peanuts and the arb system for another 6 years is effecting this. That’s a lot of years playing for very little money, makes sense to maximize when you get your shot
Yup. A-Rod opted out because he was “unsure of the future composition of the team.” That was a load of hogwash. It’s the Yankees! There is no other team in baseball for whom one would be more sure of the future composition. He opted out because he knew he could beat the money he was opting out of. And he ended up staying in NY, but obviously for more money.
~55% of replies – OVERPAY!
Also ~55% of replies – Wise addition of a superstar
This encapsulates how confused and misinformed MLB fans are about the market, fair contracts and the value of production. I’m convinced this misconception is going to do irreparable harm to MLB when players inevitably (and rightly) strike. All because they can’t be bothered to learn and instead substitute their (mis)perceptions for reality. Good grief.
Some teams need to overpay market value get a player to come there. This is not a new phenomenon and that doesn’t make the player an unwise addition. He’s got to eat that California tax hit and is heading out to play in a home park that will turn a few of his HRs into doubles and outs.
The big bad California tax hit…. Ha!
The most populous state just all of a sudden missed out on another because of taxes??? A millionaire no less!
Turn off Fox news and breathe
Why don’t you enlighten the poor dears? You seem to know so much. Please correct their misconceptions.
This isn’t the first $300m contract. Stanton got $325m…….
This is the first $300 million free agent contract. Stantons was an extension.
Stanton was not a free agent.
Oops, should have refreshed page before replying.
Camden Yard is a hitter’s paradise; Petco isn’t. That matters.
But at some point you need an impact bat and a “rock stah”, and that’s what SD got. Manny extends the lineup and makes it better. Is that worth 30M? Their payroll’s at 115M now; they not only can afford it, they’ve got some wiggle room.
Ah yes Whale’s Vagina where over priced free agents sign in order to get traded within a year or two. Good luck not winning a thing Mr. No Hustle it must sting knowing that the organization you dreamed of playing for in the Yankees wanted no part of you and the only teams with actual interest were the bottom feeding Padres and White Sox. Oh that’s right the Pads signed Hosmer last year…..baaaahhahahah! Now they have Hosmer and Manny Machado and………………….crickets.
Myers cant stay on the books. He’s easier to move and position-less currently. Padres filled a major need whether its 3B or SS with a player not even in his prime with tatis jr hopefully filling the other position.
Padres have pitching coming up with allen Paddack quantril to join lucchessi Lauer and gore Patino weathers Baez not far behind them.
Aside from machado and hosmer padres have cheap production from tatis jr urias hedges/Mejia renfroe margot reyes their rotation and their own.
I think Myers will be a 4+ war player this year. If so, would you rather Myers at 4/70 or Bryce 10/350 it 5/180? Of course we’d love Bryce, but Myers I think will shock the world. He’s a really good athlete and hitter who got screwed w position changes. Not smart for a goofy dude who has a hard time focusing. Manny will make everyone better
Myers has already been declared the starting LF. Kind of sounds like he has a position..
Myers hasn’t been declared anything. Saying they want him to focus on LF isn’t declaring him the starter. They could, and likely are still exploring, trade possibilities. Don’t speak if you don’t know what you’re saying.
ok ryan
Wonder if there is a no-trade or restricted trade clause in that contract. He can always be flipped and some team will take that contract.
Overpaid? Yes.
But the Padres made a move that definitely raises their chance of winning and creating a buzz around them, so if they have the money to pay, why not?
Almost ALL long-term deals frail at the end and teams know that.
They buy the first few years of the contract and eat the rest of’em, hoping that they can get the last drops of juice.
For the WhiteSox, I think they were smart not to go after Machado over $300 mil.
I keep seeing all these posts all but guaranteeing Tatis Jr will be brought up early in the year. Stop. I’m excited about Tatis jr also, but you can’t just moonbeam your expectations. Tatis jr did not even play a full season at AA last year due to injury, and he got off to a TERRIBLE start. The year before that, he again got off to a terrible start, then turned it on late. Furthermore, he has BIG issues with strikeouts right now that he needs to get figured out before he comes to the majors and gets exposed by the big boys. Before people freak out…. I’m not saying Tatis jr won’t figure these things out. But with a track record of slow starts (nobody will promote their top prospect to the majors when they are hitting around .200 in the minors..) and his strikeout issues, this kid is not pro-ready. Not yet. And 1-2 months in the minors won’t fix that. I don’t expect to see him until late in the year.
That is a fair assessment. You are right in that they do not need to rush anyone. If the Padres do this right and are patient, they will reap the benefits more with properly developing their youth coupled with this Machado blockbuster.
Apparently strike outs don’t matter anymore. Look at Judge and Stanton. Both strikeout over 200+/year. Tatis’s numbers are similar to Judge’s in the minors. Though, Judge did spend a year and a half in AAA
Tatis jr is NOT the type of hitter that Judge/Stanton are. Tatis Jr will not be a 40 + homer threat every single year. He is likely in the 25 range. Judge/Stanton type hitters can be expected to have those strikeout numbers. Tatis isn’t that type of hitter. Strikeouts still matter when it’s the risk vs reward. With Stanton/Judge, u are risking those strikeouts with the expectation of 40ish homers, or more, and well over 100 RBI… so you live with the Ks. That isn’t the same with Tatis.
Rooster, Ryan, Dawg…… How is it that with all of those multiple personalities not one of them has a cheery disposition? Damn son, hate much? Not sure how you call yourself a fan…. Oh yeah, you have season tix to SD, Rancho Cucamunga, Lake Elsinor, Peoria. Typical resume man… 50 years on the job but this Ryan is only 45!
The ChiSox needed him more. That AL Central is anybody’s for the taking for the foreseeable future with the Indians going all fiscal conservative.
Whitesox had 62 wins, wouldnt have helped them get to the postseason at all.
Again, I am not talking about 2019. I said the foreseeable future.
Manny signing with a team that already had a winning season would have been smart. But, if you honestly think that Manny makes San Diego 25 wins better, you are kidding yourselves. Padres finished dead last in their division at 66-96, the second WC team had 91 wins. If you think Manny gets you from 66 wins to 91, you are smoking some really good stuff. Again, bad signing.
This is about the long game, man. This isn’t about taking the NL West in 2019. Surely you have to see that.
Oh yeah, sure, the long game. When the Padres are competitive again, Manny will opt out.
And when he is 31, is he going to expect a 5-8 year contract? Teams are moving away from giving 34-38 year olds a lot of cash.
Again, stop. You know nada
The sites that attempt to quantify these things say he gives them 6-8 more wins a year..
You guys can tell yourselves what you want. The only way this made any sense was to sign with a team that was already contending, and then continue to contend. Why sign and have to wait a few years to get to winning divisions.?
It’s a 10yr deal. Relax
Whats your point? You are actually confirming my point, which is it was an overpay.
Pretty sure everyone is tired of your same comment. Downvoted Everytime.
I know not everyone thinks it is a great signing, but as a life long Padres fan and someone who hasn’t seen a winning season since 2010 (yet has paid to go to games every year) I am glad they are removing the cheap stigma from the organization and making a push. Will they end up with a world series win? Hard to say, but dammit they will be interesting over the next decade.
I wouldnt say they had a cheap stigma. Stupid signings and all, but not cheap. They just signed Hosmer in 2018, gave him 8/144. That equated to 66 wins. They traded for Kimbrel and then traded him away.
OK time to move on from Machado for christs sakes…..Any other news at all?
Well, seeing as how this is the comments section for the Machado signing, it would make sense that thats what we are talking about.
Padres will get good value based on the contract and Machado’s age. He’s now entering his prime. As long as he stays healthy, I think this will be a successful signing.
The White Sox can be in the exact same position next year with Arenado or Trout in two years. The plenty of fish in the sea is definitely the right answer.
Trout is not going to the White Sox.
The Yankees, Phillies and Red Sox are a possibility, but not the White Sox..
Exactly. White Sox keep forgetting that we’re talking about FREE AGENTS. Just because you want them it doesn’t mean they want you (See Machado) There’s a reason why the last stud MLB free agent in his prime that signed w/ the White Sox was Albert F’n Belle. Over 25 years ago. The White Sox aren’t exactly a hotbed for free agents, lol.
Since it’s the White Sox they’ll probably be in the same. position of wondering why they went to somebody actually willing to pay them….
You can’t be serious, why would either of them go there?
You’re counting birds in the bush. Excellent chance Arenado stays in the Rockies and moderate chance Trout resigns with the Halos. Missed opportunity with Machado but it takes two to tango!
It’s probably good for the Padres. Still he wasn’t what the Dodgers thought they were getting last season. He hit 273 and was to poor in the WS and playoffs batting 213. I don’t think he was worth after all he piled up most of his stats in Baltimore with no pressure.. But for the Padres who are going nowhere it’s good for the city.. Someone was going to give him the money so glad it’s the Padres and not Colorado. or the Giants.
I wish every day I could be paid to play this game. But this kind of money is insane! Hard to imagine making this much lol
The real problem with these signings isn’t the player himself. In all likelihood, in terms of $/WAR, the contract will work out fine for the Padres. The real problem is the opportunity cost of tying up 1/4 to 1/5 of your payroll in a single player. Whether payrolls should be higher based on team revenues is a separate argument since mid market teams have effectively decided to stay in the $125-$160 MM range. As a result, the only way to succeed with one of these contracts and the aforementioned payroll is to have multiple arbitration eligible or pre-arb players under contract below market value. The Padres are gambling that some of their prospects from their excellent farm system fill this role in the coming years. If not, they will not be able to compete with their historical payrolls. A lesser factor to me is that when these contracts are on the books, injuries on or off the field, unexpected declines in performance, etc. to a single player then can effectively hamstring a team financially for the better part of a decade. Instead the risk could be spread out over 2-3 good but not already great players and the length of contract can be shortened to avoid the worst of the decline years. Of course, you can only have nine players on the field at a time, so the higher a single player’s WAR the higher the possible WAR for the team as a whole. That is why, despite what the commissioner says, money helps to build a winning team. Buying WAR is inefficient, but is the most readily available resource to immediately improve a team. Deciding when to spend relative to the growth of pre-arb players is one of the key responsibilities of any GM.
$300 mil for??
Public relations buzz
Position of need/ gold glover
Face of franchise
Hall of famer
Latin mentor for our young studs
Ticket sales
WIN MORE GAMES
And we still have one of the lowest payrolls with by far the best farm, and a ton of young ready mlb’rs. How was this a bad investment?
And a competitive window that opens roundabout 2020 and extends for at least 5 years.
Hate to play devils advocate here…. but I just have to. Who are these “ready mlb’rs”??
All these comments about this player or that player being overpaid crack me up. Baseball is a $10B business and the players are paid less than half that. Give Machado and Harper $300+M and baseball will still be just fine and very healthy economically. EVERY team can afford a player or two in that price range, some owners choose to put money into their teams, while others cry that they are a “small market” and can’t do it- which is bs, once revenue sharing was put into effect and the TV deals were signed, there were no small market teams. The owner of the Nationals was very honest last year when he was asked about small crowds at Nat’s Park last year. He said something like the stadium could be empty for every single game of the season and the Nats would still make plenty of money.
Anyone who thinks that all ML teams are on the same financial footing has no concept of reality..
They’re all insanely profitable…
But they are not all on equal financial footing.
Your point is a strawman Mendoza
When teams are collectively spending around 40% of revenue there is a problem. Factor in the fact that tax payers are paying for their biggest expense – ballparks, and this becomes a much bigger issue.
The owners are taking our money up front and then charging us to see the product we just invested in. And then turn around and cry poor each year, raise the price on everything all while suppressing player salaries. It’s gross, and there is no defense for it. Stop being so gullible
You did not read my simple and straightforward answer to another comment totally unrelated to what you wanted to say and prattled on about something entirely different.
Swinging Friar has struck out.
Being on equal financial footing is a strawman. I did read your simple straightforward answer… And brought up the point that its a strawman. You are attempting to negate one point by making a different point that while it seems related on the surface, it’s acuatally completely inconsequential to the argument being made
Sure the Padres make less than the Yankees. Doesn’t excuse them for pocketing 60% or more of the profits and not putting a quality product on the field
It’s not normal to be forced to invest in a business (tax payer funded stadiums). It’s also not normal to root for a team’s owner over the actual team! That is our money they are pocketing
Politicians invest taxpayer’s money for a variety of reasons,sometimes not good ones.
I think that team owner’s should pay their fair share for new stadiums,thus investing in the community.
It is inherent,though,that the reason why taxpayer money is used is because these teams,owned by the owners,are also financial windfalls for the city where they play.That is the reason why public money is spent on new stadiums.
I still do not understand your comment,but it seems that you are saying that all owners are so filthy rich from this business that it should not matter whether they are small market or not that they all can afford to pay mega mega million contracts and take the chance that the player is no Josh Hamilton or Prince Fielder( injury related).
If that is your arguement I think it ludicrous,and nowhere close to what the actual financial conditions are of these teams.
I hope for your sake that Machado does work out well becuase otherwise I think that the Padres will be set back even more than in 2015 with Preller at the helm early in his careeer there.
It’s been proven over and over that there is no financial windfall that comes from over paying for stadiums. In fact every unbiased study says just the opposite. The city pays millions yearly to maintain, all those seasonal employees collect unemployement in the off months, not to mention the additional help needed at that wage level… There are just so many negatives that never get mentioned, they all far out way the excitement generated by having a sports franchise
And yes, if the team’s owners would invest more and pocket less every team could afford several Machado sized contracts. It’s a b.s. story we’ve been sold
Remember when Reds fan was all excited because they were “doing things”…..?
Great move for San Diego. A superstar player at a reasonable price for all he’s bringing to the table. He’ll help them compete and sell tickets which is huge for them. Also, with the best farm and decent MLB talent, contention shouldn’t be too far away after pitching is added. Plus if it doesn’t work out the Padres can trade him before his opt out and pick up solid talent. What’s wrong with that?
Also Machado, Myers, and Hosmer in the same lineup should give each other some degree of protection, definitely more so than they had before (except mannys time on the Dodgers and maybe Hosmers World Series run with KC) which should improve their stats, especially hosmers
Fair value, though I hate the opt-out. If the Padres are willing to commit $300MM to a player, that player should remain committed to them. To not be able to opt out while the getting is good.
He’s probably not going to opt out tho
It also motivates the player to stay good.
Any 10yr 300m deal carries alot of risk.But to get a gold glove winning 3b,who can consistently hit 280 with 30 2bs and hrs,and to have him in place when Tatis hits the majors,I think it’s a great baseball move.Back to back years of making big additions has definitely gotten San Diego some national attention and respect.With a strong farm system,alot of there roster over the next 5 years or so will be filled out by players with lower salaries anyway.
$30 a year for a star in his prime – in a league where teams are making a ridiculous amount of money just from TV revenue – is a huge bargain.
Machado’s WAR (through Baseball Reference) is super impressive, starting with his age 22 season:
2015: 7.1
2016: 6.9
2017: 3.4
2018: 5.7
So in his worst year you’re paying him $8.8m per WAR. Or, on average over the past 4 years you’re paying $5.2m per WAR.
That’s a steal.
Every team in baseball should have been in on Machado at this rate.
Not sure how WAR is calculated but it seems to me that most posters think it fairly accurate even if the defensive metrics are clearly more subject to debate than the offensive ones.
It seems to me that the value of 1.0 WAR should be relatively easy to be able to be calculated on an annual basis.Full time players salaries could be added into the sum along with their WARs.I would leave out the first,second,and third year players because the salaries are artificially low.Players who were injured for most of the year should not be part,although injured players who played a substantial portion could be included.Backup players could be included in some proportion according to how much they played.
This divison of total players WAR into total salary would give an average value every year based on the current salaries.
I may be missing something but I presume that it should be no more complicated than that process.
SD got a STUD! Those WAR numbers don’t lie, plus he’s an elite defender at 3B and he is just now entering his prime age years.
Those questioning the Padres farm system should take a look at the 2018 milb.com mid season progress report and see whose farm system received the highest grade.
Some Unheralded prospects that arrived to the show last season that experienced success included Reyes, Castillo, Luchessi, Lauer, and Stock.
The plan for the 2019 season will be more of the same.
They’ll sprinkle in some top prospects as the season progresses and give a taste of what 2020 and beyond gonna look like.
That moment when Padres fans automatically think high grades and prospects means they are guaranteed those prospects will become superstars. Wishful thinking on their part but then again I have been hearing this song from Padres fans since their last World Series appearance 21 years ago.
Another bar-stool analysis.
Spack, what about his comment is inaccurate? I see it all the time, and I’m a Padres fan. All I see is people all but guaranteeing success because of the farm system. So I actually think his point is valid. Although I don’t think the whole 21 years comment is anything but a jab…. but the point about fans believing prospect rankings automatically means the major league club will be good…. is spot on. Too many people forget how quickly a top prospect can drop. Cal Quantrill anyone? Doesn’t take long. Until they contribute in the majors, it’s wishful thinking/hope. Period. It’s not a competitive window for the Padres until they actually start competing. If they have a good season with some of these prospects, then, yes, they have proven they can play in the majors and should get better and compete. Right now? There is NO competitive window because NOBODY has done anything in the majors. That’s the sad truth
With fans like these….who needs enemies?