This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.
The Colorado ballclub only added a few pieces to its depth chart this winter, but that doesn’t mean the offseason lacked for consequential decisions.
Major League Signings
- Daniel Murphy, 1B: two years, $24MM (includes mutual option)
- Total spend: $24MM
Trades And Claims
- Acquired RHP Jordan Foley from Yankees in exchange for RHP Jefry Valdez
- Acquired C Chris Rabago from Royals in exchange for cash considerations (selected in Triple-A Rule 5 from Yankees)
Notable Minor League Signings
Extensions
- Nolan Arenado, 3B: seven years, $234MM (had previously agreed to $26MM arbitration contract for 2019)
Notable Losses
- Drew Butera, Carlos Gonzalez (still unsigned), Matt Holliday (still unsigned), DJ LeMahieu, Adam Ottavino, Gerardo Parra
[Colorado Rockies Depth Chart | Colorado Rockies Payroll Outlook]
Needs Addressed
The Rockies are coming off of repeat postseason appearances for the first time in franchise history. While the club was bounced in the play-in game in 2017 and was swept in the NLDS last year by the Brewers, fans still savored the first full playoff series since 2009. If they’re to make it back into the tourney for a third-straight campaign, the Rockies will have to do so without a few key members of their recent squads — and without any major outside reinforcements.
This is an organization that has bet on its own players more than most in recent years. GM Jeff Bridich doesn’t swing many trades, preferring instead to hang onto and promote the club’s homegrown talent. His two biggest contracts have come via extensions, not free agent signings. Last year, it was outfielder Charlie Blackmon who secured a big payday to forego the chance to test the open market at the end of the season. This time around, the club took on the much more difficult task of working out a deal with franchise centerpiece Nolan Arenado.
Perhaps the game’s best third baseman, Arenado is a premium defender and excellent power hitter who is only entering his age-28 season. His new deal includes a hefty $33.4MM average annual salary for its newly guaranteed seasons, a record for a position player. And it provides him with full no-trade rights and an opt-out opportunity after the third year. The terms hardly represent a bargain for the Rox, who’ll bear the risk of injury or performance issues that arise during the season to come. But the team surely had legitimate concerns about what it would take to retain Arenado if he was allowed to test the open market.
The Rockies also reached another, less-consequential late-February extension by working out a new deal with manager Bud Black. He’s now under contract through 2022. Black, Bridich, and owner Dick Monfort have seemed to be on the same wavelength since the former took over for Walt Weiss before the 2017 season. It’s hard to argue with the results.
There’s a hypothetical world where second baseman DJ LeMahieu also ended up staying around. The club had interest, but it always seemed a bit lukewarm after a club-wide offseason letdown in 2018. LeMahieu ultimately signed with the Yankees for the same guarantee that the Rockies gave his replacement, Daniel Murphy.
Though he’s closing in on his 34th birthday and wasn’t fully himself last year after returning from knee surgery, Murphy looks to be a clear upgrade with the bat. He’s nowhere near LeMahieu’s class with the glove, but the Rockies won’t be asking him to line up at second base. Instead, the club will slot Murphy in at first while moving around some other pieces to fill in other areas. (More on that below.)
Otherwise, the Rockies’ only outside acquisitions rate mostly as depth. Mark Reynolds may crack the roster as a bench bat, while Alec Asher and Chi Chi Gonzalez boost the pitching ranks. In a manner of speaking, the team addressed one other need by bidding adieu to veterans Carlos Gonzalez and Gerardo Parra. That’s no slight to the players — both have certainly had their moments through the years and could still be useful contributors. But the organization probably ought to have exchanged pleasantries with Gonzalez for good last winter. Doing so now, while also letting Parra walk, cleared out a left-handed-hitting logjam in the outfield for some younger, cheaper, higher-upside players.
Questions Remaining
We just touched upon (but didn’t name) a few players whose changing status in the Colorado organization could make or break the coming season. Outfielders David Dahl and Raimel Tapia now have an opening to seize major roles. The same holds true for second base/utility candidates Ryan McMahon and Garret Hampson. There’s a fair bit of ceiling for that foursome, though it’s still anyone’s guess which of them will turn out, and to what extent.
Putting real trust in these players carries obvious risk, though it also made good sense. It’s a deserving slate of players. And the Rockies were pressed for payroll space after making some fairly significant outlays on the open market in recent seasons. Mid-season trades can always be considered; it’s worth noting, too, that prized youngster Brendan Rodgers could force his way into the infield picture.
Dahl and Tapia are highly cost-efficient, interesting young players. But neither hits from the right side, meaning that the Rockies again have a skewed outfield mix. That was addressed in part by one other roster shift related to the Murphy-for-LeMahieu substitution. Ian Desmond will move off of first base and into center field, bumping Blackmon to a corner role. That’s a much more sensible alignment, though it remains to be seen how Desmond will handle the work up the middle now that he’s 33 years of age and is a few seasons removed from his previous (and only) season of work in center. Of greater consequence: can Desmond finally emerge from his doldrums at the plate and will Blackmon decline further from a productive-but-not-peak showing in 2018?
If there’s a glaring weakness on this roster, it’s behind the dish. Chris Iannetta is closing in on his 36th birthday and suffered through down season last year both with the bat and in the framing department. Tony Wolters is younger and scored well at earning strikes for his pitchers last year, but has been a dreadful hitter the past two seasons. While Tom Murphy remains an intriguing player given his offensive output in the minors, he’s a bit of a wild card. All things considered, it’s a bit surprising that the Rockies didn’t find a way to improve the catching situation this winter.
The bullpen is the other area of concern on paper. Adam Ottavino was the team’s best reliever last year, but he was never a realistic target in free agency. The club had little choice but to put its hope in a group of arms in which it is heavily invested. Wade Davis, Jake McGee, Bryan Shaw, and Mike Dunn are all earning big bucks; only Davis was a quality performer last year, and he wasn’t at this best. Seunghwan Oh succeeded after a mid-season trade; the team will cross its fingers that he and Scott Oberg can repeat their strong seasons and that Chris Rusin can rediscover his form. Otherwise, we’ll see some younger arms in action. Antonio Senzatela will be sidelined to open the season but could factor in again once he’s up to speed; Yency Almonte, DJ Johnson, Harrison Musgrave, Carlos Estevez, Rayan Gonzalez, and Jesus Tinoco are among the options on the 40-man.
So … we’ve made it this far in a Rockies discussion without talking about the rotation? That’s a good thing, as the unit didn’t need upgrading and looks rather interesting once again. German Marquez and Kyle Freeland will hope to repeat as a quality 1-2 punch, with the talented Jon Gray still a threat to overtake both. Tyler Anderson and Chad Bettis seem like reasonable choices at the back of the staff. Perhaps Jeff Hoffman can still tap into some upside; Peter Lambert could make himself a factor. Otherwise, there’s some depth in some of the hurlers listed already above, along with Ryan Castellani and minor-league signees Chi Chi Gonzalez, and Alec Asher.
2019 Season Outlook
Overtaking the Dodgers in the NL West will be a very tough task, but the Rockies probably have the best shot to do so of the rest of the teams in the division. The Wild Card won’t be an easy back-up plan, either, as a densely packed National League figures to be full of competition. It’s clear that the Rockies believe their window is open, as it continues to set payroll records and is probably on track to do so again next year (when including reasonable guesses at arbitration salaries). That could set the stage for some interesting trade deadline decisions.
How would you grade the Rockies’ offseason moves? (Link for app users.)
nothing special overall, but the Arenado extention ups it a grade point at least
I went A simply for the Nolan extension. Ignoring that one deal probably puts it at a C/C-. Catching and the bullpen should have been addressed. But the OF is worrisome for me.
CarGo is not the MVP candidate he once was, but he had a pretty good year in 2018. For the most part, he was the 5th best offensive player for the Rockies in 2018. And at some points when Blackmon or LeMahieu were slumping, he was 3rd. When you factor in his leadership and respect, losing him might hurt more than is believed.
Dahl and Tapia could replace the OF production, but each has potential problems. Dahl is very injury prone. Basically he could be Tulowitzki 2.0. I mean the guy is playing without a spleen since it burst a couple of years ago on a fly ball collision. Tapia is still relatively unproven as a major leaguer as well, but as the 4th OF that can be okay. But if Dahl gets hurt, then maybe it becomes an issue. For a rebuilding club, these two issues might not be a big deal, but the Rockies are looking to win their very division title. I would feel a bit better with a re-signed CarGo, even if it is just for a bench role.
Meh…..
Well, I like Daniel Murphy as an offensive player, but I’m not sure it would be an upgrade to LaMahieu, or if it is, not that much. Nolean extension is nice, but at the same time, if the Rockies are somewhat of an small market team and if they are, then I’m not really a fan of signing 25+ mil for one person, otherwise if payroll is expanding and they find themselves in the middle of the bracket, it could be a good thing. Rockies still need pitching no doubt, really don’t get why they don’t go after it, I understand sometimes pitchers dont wanna pitch in Colorado, but I still feel they aren’t making a strong push toward SP. And worst of all, in my opinion, they payed way much for a CP, about 15 mil per year which could have been used toward a SP, a hitter, or even a few RP’s. As I’ve mentioned many times, you don’t get into save situations without having good offense, defense, and pitching beforehand. Not only that, but usually pitching one inning 3 or 4 times a week with a 3 run difference at most is pretty spacious. I’ts not a self fulfilling prophecy where it all comes down to 1 inning. No disrespect to Davis as a person, but you don’t deserve that much as closer, and even moreso for the unsigned Kimbrel asking around 20 mil.
The Rockies won 92 games last year. Does their current roster look like 92 wins this year? Probably not. No team that doesn’t improve deserves better than a C grade for the offseason. Having moved backwards some, the Rockies earn a generous C-.
Rockies are a very overrated team right now. Freeland and Marquez make a good front end but rotation lacks depth, bullpen is easily the worst or possibly tied for worst in the NL West with the Dbacks. Offense may be better than the crappy hitting teams like the Giants and Padres, but when compared to the Brewers/Phillies/Cardinals/Cubs/Reds/Braves their offense is awful. Outside Nolan/Murphy/Blackmon, (2/3 are aging vets) they have very average players, and an inconsistent Trevor Story who can hit homers one week and go 0-16 the other.
Not sure how you can say that the Giants ‘pen is better than Colorado or Arizona.
Intitially I thought the Rockies pen was better than the Giants bullpen as well, but statistically the Giants bullpen was significantly better than Colorado’s last year, getting sub-3 ERA seasons from Moronta/Watson/Smith, and Arizona is relying on Bradley/Chafin/Hirano/McFarland, which is actually better than Davis/McGee/Shaw/Oberg, so my point stands that Colorado has the worst bullpen in that division.
Their roster last year didn’t look like 92 wins, and so many underperformed. Might be we look at at like differently because they play half their games in Denver.
True, their PECOTA at the start of last season was 78 wins so in reality they arguably significantly over-performed their roster last year. By that reasoning they are actually a good deal better this year.
Cargo is done…I get it…but why unsigned as a platoon? He must be dreaming for next contract cause he can easily get a minor league deal. sad…
No defensive value anymore and he has never hit outside of Colorado.
CarGo is fine defensively. dWAR does not really account for RF in Coors very well. In 26 years there has never been a Rockies RF, including Larry Walker, that graded well with that metric. That tells me there is something wrong with the metric in that regard.
Jim Thome minus steroids equals Mark Reynolds. Probably. On another note, I love this off season IF they found a way to unload Ian Desmond. But nope. So C+
Jim Thome used steroids? I’d like to see some proof. I’ll wait.
Love that this guy just randomly assumes and accuses a hall of famer of using steroids. There is absolutely no proof or any acknowledgement in the baseball community that he was ever linked to it.
Agreed. His name was never linked. A lot of players used steroids, but guys like Griffey, Thome and McGriff were clean.
I’ll wait too. We get proof in one big package for all guys in steroid era who had career years in their mid 30s.
I don’t like the Arenado extension, so I’m not a big fan of their off-season at all.
I imagine they’ll be in the 85-90 win range, but that’s more so because I actually like their pitching and they have enough guys who will hit that 85-90 wins seems probable.
I feel like they’ll be rebuilding in 3 years though. Unless guys like Rodgers turn into total studs and they can sustain the pitching
I like the Murphy pick up and the Arenado signing. I just wish the got a catcher. B
I don’t see the big issue with C. It’s not like every other team has a great one. Look what the WS trotted out at that position. I just do not understand why any faith is being put in Desmond. He might make a strong bench player, but putting him in the starting lineup only makes the team weaker.
The big issue with catcher is getting the most out of your pitching staff. The small issue though is what pre-occupies too many fans: what the catcher can do with the bat. A sound defensive catcher who calls a good game and has rapport with the pitchers puts the team in position to win more games than the catcher with a power bat.
It would be nice if we could combine Iannetta and Wolters into one person, but having a couple serviceable and durable catchers is better than most teams. Catchers who can hit are few and far between, An expensive and underperforming bullpen is something the team will have to live with, hoping that a few of them can regain some semblance of their best days in baseball. Hopefully Marquez, Freeland, Gray and Senzatella will continue the success they have displayed in 2018, although Gray certainly has to prove that he belongs in that group after gaining a reputation as a “head case.” Almonte showed promise last year, and there are several others who are in a crucial year this year who now list on the Albuquerque roster. who are about to lose their “promising” label and get a “close but no cigar” label. With Aranado, Blackman and Story on the roster, the team has every reason to believe that they will get everyday offense and defense from these three. Dahl may finally play a full year for the first time after his oft-injured career. Cuevas has shown himself to be a capable backup OF. Tauchman and Tapia have yet to perform adequately in the majors. Mark Reynolds is an adequate backup for Murphy at first. We may see Hampson as a backup infielder as needed. It would make everyone a little more comfortable if Cargo was on the bench as a backup OF, especially on defense, which is still exceptional. If Ryan McMahon fails to perform at second, we may see Brendan Rogers finally get some time in the majors. With this group and some luck, the Rockies may once again be playoff bound. In any case, they will be fun to watch, despite having to play Ian Desmond. The Rockies signed a contract with Desmond that ensures that they will never be able to trade him. After three years, it would be great if he performed up to his advertised level at least one of his five years with the team.
Daniel Murphy’s bat will THRIVE in Colorado.