It was June 2013, six years ago, that the Dodgers secured one of the greatest draft steals in recent memory. In the fourth round, with the 124th overall pick, the Dodgers chose an Arizona high school first baseman/pitcher named Cody Bellinger. Although Bellinger’s the son of a former big leaguer, ex-Yankees and Angels infielder/outfielder Clay Bellinger, that didn’t make him a slam dunk to turn into a contributor at the MLB level.
Scouts were somewhat bullish on Bellinger at the time of his drafting, though, with some likening him to former major league first baseman Adam LaRoche (via Baseball America). Although LaRoche had a better and longer career than most, it’s obvious Bellinger has blown by him two-plus seasons into his career. In fact, Bellinger already has a superior lifetime fWAR to LaRoche (11.9 to 11.5) despite having amassed almost 5,000 fewer plate appearances.
Even though he didn’t come off the board near the very top of his draft class, Bellinger developed into one of the game’s 100 best prospects and immediately made good on the hype in the bigs. Los Angeles promoted Bellinger in April 2017, a season in which he saw extensive action at two positions – first base and left field – and wound up taking home NL Rookie of the Year honors.
Bellinger slashed .267/.352/.581 (138 wRC+) in his inaugural season, smacked the majors’ fifth-most home runs (39) and stole 10 bases. While Bellinger wasn’t as effective in 2018, he still recorded a solidly above-average line of .260/.343/.470 (120 wRC+) with another 25 homers and 14 steals.
Had the 23-year-old Bellinger showed up this season and been the same type of producer he was in 2018, the Dodgers likely would have been satisfied. Instead, through two months, he has looked like a bona fide superstar and the No. 1 challenger to reigning NL MVP Christian Yelich. With an astounding .363/.469/.761 slash, Bellinger easily ranks first in wRC+ (216), outpacing the second-place Yelich (188) by 28 points and baseball deity Mike Trout (172) by 44. Yelich does have a two-home run lead on Bellinger (21-19), but the latter has clearly been the more valuable player by Wins Above Replacement (5.2 rWAR/4.3 fWAR to 2.9/3.0).
Are Bellinger’s otherworldly offensive numbers sustainable? Perhaps not, as it’s hard to keep up a 1.200-plus OPS all season unless you’re Barry Bonds, Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Rogers Horsnby, Jimmie Foxx or another legend along those lines. But the strides Bellinger has made are very real. He has slashed his strikeout rate to 13.8 percent, down 10.1 percent from 2018, while increasing his walk rate from 10.9 to 14.3. He’s also hitting way more line drives and far fewer ground balls, making much more contact, whiffing less and chasing fewer out-of-zone pitches than he did in previous years. Meanwhile, Statcast credits the lefty-swinging Bellinger with the game’s top-ranked expected weighted on-base average (.504) – which is somehow better than his .500 real wOBA.
Adding to Bellinger’s appeal, he’s hardly an offense-only player. While it’s tough to get too exited about two months of defensive data, it’s similarly difficult not to raise eyebrows over his fielding numbers. In 46 games in right field this season, Bellinger has already put up 12 Defensive Runs Saved and a 4.9 Ultimate Zone Rating. He ranks top three among all outfielders in those categories. As Mark Simon of Sports Info Solutions noted last week, Bellinger’s left arm has been his greatest asset in the field. He fired the cannon on multiple occasions Sunday to stonewall Mets base runners.
With this year’s draft nearing, Bellinger’s rise is an important one to keep in mind. Aside from Cubs great Kris Bryant and arguably the Yankees’ Aaron Judge, Bellinger has outdone every first-round pick from his draft class. They each went anywhere from 91 to 123 choices before Bellinger, but he may soon follow Bryant in becoming the class’ second MVP. More importantly for the Dodgers, who continue to fire on all cylinders, the player they once used a mere fourth-rounder on could end up as the face of a World Series winner as early as this season.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Terrific player. World Series Winner? Don’t get carried away. Dave “ my pitcher is throwing a no-no and he has to come out “ Roberts. Won’t win a World Series with him in the dugout. Good regular season Manager but he is to baseball what Marty Shottenheimer was to football.
Both times he pulled a pitcher having a no-no were the right decision. You clearly didnt see when he let Hill pitch into the 10th with no hits. Every situation is different.
No, they were not the correct decisions. Roberts is a good players manager but should never be allowed to even speak to a pitcher.
What is your insight based on? Armchair conjecture maybe…
A bad manager let’s the hype of a no-hitter force him to let a pitcher he’ll need healthy all season overwork himself.
A good manager knows all that you don’t get bonus wins for them and that the goal is the post season, not individual accolades.
I’m not Roberts biggest fan, but in this case more managers need to have that kind of focus.
The Stripling one was obviously the right choice.
He’s already played in two. Odds are, Roberts or no Roberts, Belly’s gonna win a ring or two before all is said & done.
You’re right, he will. When he leaves LA and goes to NY or Boston.
To Boston lol…with the small city, sexy(?) accent, loyal fans thing going for them you mean?
Their owners are great, but getting Belly(Boras client) while they have their own young stars seems highly unlikely
It doesn’t matter who is in the dugout, the strings are pulled from the braintrust upstairs.
Yep? More like “nope, can’t make a good analogy.”
Yes, Roberts Sucks!
Frank Mccourt cursed the Dodgers. As long as he holds the parking lots, the Dodgers will never win a WS and give just enough hope to break their fanbases hearts.
Advanced statistics proves it.
Frank McCourt doesn’t own the parking lot. He owns about half of the land and will only make money if it is ever developed.
is this a rumor or a hype piece?
It’s a rumor. The rumor is the Dodgers were happy with selecting Bellinger with that pick. The rumor is probably right.
Hype piece when it’s not your team? I appreciate the “focus insight” on various teams.
While not particularly an AL fan, I like both Twin pieces today, and while they did seem to be actual twin articles, I found them interesting.
I suspect this is their way of reminding the casual fans that the draft matters beyond just the first round.
Interesting article. Why the need to only highlight Bellinger? If you are looking to profile recent draft “steals” the list is pretty long. Goldy, Mookie, Bregman, etc…
Bregman the guy who went 2nd overall?
Bergman a steal ? Nah. He was picked 2nd over all. Now, goldy was a steal
Because Bellinger is the current MVP front runner.
…but no matter how superbly he plays the game he’s doing it in the wrong time zone for many fans to take much notice.
Imagine if the Dodgers would have given into Jeter’s demands and traded Bellinger +prospects to the Marlins for Realmuto.
Disaster.
They were never going to do that and there were actually comments about how it would have been a fair swap. Delusional like Jeter
Exactly. That was one of the craziest rumors to circulate this offseason. Nobody who knew anything took it seriously.
It;s not so much a crazy rumor as a crazy inflexible offer –
twitter.com/MLBNetwork/status/1080861065578274816
Jeter just didn’t want to make a second consecutive bad deal following the Yelich Trade.
Took that one Margaritaville style, with a whole shaker of salt. The Marlins weren’t going to and (lo and behold) didn’t get anything close to a player “like” Bellinger for Realmuto.
He is good but he also dropped 60 points in his batting average in 2 weeks. He is coming back to life but still a great player
He was hitting .383 when tonight’s game started. The post or whatever it’s called is wrong. Also judged as the fastest player in last years post season & one of the four fastest this year
Ah here comes the usual “I don’t watch him play but I’m gonna comment anyway”.
The kid was hitting over .400 last week. Is currently hitting .382 – I guess math is hard. Also leading the league in almost every important stat imaginable and hitting monster home runs pretty much every night.
If “coming back to life” means putting up MVP performances both at the plate and in the field daily I’ll take it.
21-20* lol
Thank you Ned Colletti and Logan White!!!
A lot of Fahran Zaidi’s new apologists in SF point the the Dodgers as proof he’s a “baseball genius”. Most of that talent was in the Dodgers’ system already and he was nothing more than a glorified assistant to Andrew Friedman.
Zaidis merry-go-round outfield is 100% better for the franchise than trading Bryan Reyonlds for McCutchen.
That deal does look super ugly. The Giants might have netted a player of future value in Avelino but still.
Just wait until Farhan starts bringing in his old A’s shower buddies on $50 million dollar contracts to sit on the DL for 4 years.
White now turning the Padres scouting into a machine
I’d say he has earned the right to start against lefties this postseason. But then again, I don’t know as much as the Dodgers FO, so I could be wrong.
What a weird and confusing way to push your narrative.
Yeah I would say so too. Maybe because he’s actually hitting LHP this year. People want to complain about the Dodgers platooning last year fail to mention they gave guys 5 months to prove themselves. 5 months, with the exception of Pederson and if you’ve seen his ABs v LHP you’d know why, and when they started to platoon they started to get on a role. But yes let’s push your lazy tired narrative.
April – .431/.508/.890/1.397
May – .316/.413/.582/.995
Last 14 days – .282/.404/.667/1.071
Last 7 days – .227/.320/.591/.911
The regression has begun. It will continue. On October 1st what we can expect to see is about what we have seen in the past. Something around .263/.347/.522/.869. Maybe if Bellinger beats the odds he will end up between those numbers and his career averages to date. Still a great player, just not the extraordinary results he had for a month.
Home run last night off deGrom ( as well as throwing out a runner at 3rd & home) another tonight off Matz. You do not know talent , probably just an ignorant hater.
Looking into a 7 game sample size where his OPS is .911? 14 games 1.071 and this is regression? Paralysis by analysis. No one expected him to be hitting like a god forever. He is regressing back to elite
This is an example that trying to rely on short sample sizes doesn’t really prove much.
Last 7 games: .286/.410/.800 195 ops+
Last 14 games: .308/.426/.769 202 ops+
Somewhat hard to point out substantial regression when you’re playing the short sample size game. It’s also hard to not put into context the shoulder injury that occurred at the beginning of the month, because it did play a factor for about a week or two. I’m not sure what your trying to prove here, is it a haha he’s not going to put up insanely god like month numbers through a whole season, because that’s not news. I also kind of chuckle, because as fans we can acknowledge he had a rough sophomore campaign, but are we forgetting he put up a .267/.352/.582 143 ops+ rookie campaign? So when you say career averages, you’re talking like he’s a 4-5 year vet. It is not remotely out of the question that he breaks a 1.000 ops or demolishes his 143 ops+. This doesn’t really show or justify anything to be honest. As a 23 year old with 5 tools he’s figuring himself out as an elite hitter.
Stupid comment. Since when is a .990 OPS a bad week?
Don’t comment. It’s obvious you don’t watch the games he plays in and just try to be baseball reference comment section hero.
No, I don’t watch his games. I have a better team to watch.
However, if you feel the need to be baseball reference comment section policeman, then troll away.
Roughly two months too early to give him the MVP award. Like someone already mentioned, his batting average already has dropped 20 points in the past two weeks after some national sports outlets were already promoting him as “the first .400 average in decades”.
Give me a break.
I would bet that if Bellinger were on YOUR favorite team, you would be gushing over him.
At this moment 9:40 pst 5/28/2019 Bellinger is hitting .384 not .363.
I love belli. I’m a big dodger fan, live to see Cory killing it. Great player, but he is no Mike Trout. I know everyone must compare themselves to the best. And Mike Trouts numbers are down a hair this year. But let’s be honest, it’s Mike Trout and everyone else.
No disrespect to Bellinger, he is on pace for a HOF career, but it’s like comparing Babe Ruth to Rafael Palmeiro. Everyone knows Mike Trout is the greatest player in the game, yet he is soooo underrated.
Go out to Anaheim and watch Mike Trout play, in 20 -40 years you can tell your grandkids you saw the greatest player to have played the game!
I’m stuck on him having more fwar than LaRoche. He was a defensibly minded 1B who put up 6 25+ HR seasons with good peripherals. That’s either incredible or LaRoche doesn’t get the respect he deserves.
Tough case. There’s the argument that LaRoche wasn’t as good defensively as people want to remember – the eye test varies depending on who you’re talking to, and the metrics were really down on his work.
He was a poor baserunner, and had a career 110 wRC+ (and a sub .800 OPS), at the least valuable position on the field. His career WAR is probably fair.
Note to Friedman, LA will not advance very far with that crap pen you put together.
Careful, you’re not allowed to say stuff like that around here.
You don’t enjoy watching that nightly dumpster fire?
No arguemnt there. This pen is so bad and if they allow it to ruin an elite rotation and lineup that would be such a joke. Kimbrel, Doolitte, Colomé ect. It needs to be big game hunting to fix it this year. Not Ryan Madson and John Axford
It should never have been Madson or Axford or any of the other disposable arms and reclamation cases they seem to find year after year. If the light isn’t flashing code red now then I don’t know that it ever will. It didn’t last year even when the pen blew something like seven games in a row.
You forgot about Chargrois, Baez, Garcia, Alexander, and the whole lot of them. Just plain awful. As you say, how can he put together such a well oiled machine and completely butcher the pen? Amazing.
We can’t forget about them no matter how hard we try. Friedman’s philosophy on bullpen construction has to be pretty obvious to everyone by now. It’s also pretty obviously broken. And the accusations that I am “pushing a narrative” are coming on three…. two…
If Will Smith fares well enough, Austin Barnes could be expendable earlier than thought. He should fetch a decent reliever.
Koamalu what time zone do you live in? Yes it does matter
If that Dodger 9-8 comeback occurred on the East coast, it would have gotten more coverage. This was an amazing game and worthy of greater coverage. More east coast bias.