The Twins have enjoyed quite a few nice surprises in the course of their strong start to the year. The output of righty Jake Odorizzi is certainly among them. Don’t look now, but he’s actually now topping the ERA leaderboard among qualified starters. So … is Odorizzi headed for a free agent bonanza after the season?
There’s little doubt that Odorizzi is delivering great value on the $9.5MM he’s earning in his final season of arbitration eligibility. Through 70 1/3 innings, he owns a 1.92 ERA with 10.0 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9.
Odorizzi is tied for the league lead with nine wins, for those that value that statistic. That’s a hefty tally for a pitcher in this day and age, but it doesn’t mean he’s working deep into games. Odorizzi has gone past six innings just twice; on the positive side, he has only failed to last at least five frames on two occasions.
This continues a low-inning trend for Odorizzi. He took sixty starts in the 2017-18 seasons, but threw only 307 2/3 innings. That recent history is notable in other ways as well. Odorizzi compiled useful but unspectacular numbers in his most recent seasons, working to a 4.33 ERA with 8.5 K/9 against 3.8 BB/9.
The 2017-18 version of Odorizzi coughed up 1.5 homers per nine. He was and is a heavy flyball pitcher. Opposing hitters currently carry a 28.2% groundball rate and 20.2 degree launch angle, much as they did last year. While they’re putting the ball in the air, though, they haven’t found their home run stroke this year. Odorizzi has permitted just 0.51 HR/9 on a meager 4.9% HR/FB.
What to make of the changes? You certainly have to question the sustainability. Statcast says that Odorizzi has allowed a meager .234 wOBA, but calculates a .284 xwOBA — still good, but hardly as dominating as the results. We might expect a lower BABIP given his batted-ball profile, but .251 still seems light. If and when the home run suppression dissipates, Odorizzi could be left looking like much the same pitcher he has always been. Both xFIP (4.20) and SIERA (3.92) see him that way already.
That said, there does appear to be something more here than a nice, fortune-laden run of results. Odorizzi has bumped his swinging-strike rate to 12.8% by riding a rather notable velocity boost — all the way over 93 mph on both his four-seam and two-seam fastballs after sitting under 92 in the prior two seasons. He’s currently at personal-high levels with both heaters, which at a bare minimum suggests he’s in a good place physically and mechanically.
There’s nothing here to suggest that Odorizzi is suddenly a front-line starter. It’s quite likely he’ll come back to earth over the next several months. But there’s also some evidence that he’s in his best form since he established himself as a quality starter (and underappreciated part of a notable trade) with the Rays.
Odorizzi will turn 30 right at the start of the 2020 campaign. With a run of extensions gutting the 2019-20 free agent market, he’ll have a chance to position himself as one of the better available starters. When MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes last ranked the upcoming free agents nearly six weeks ago, he listed Madison Bumgarner and Zack Wheeler in the top five and noted a group of other useful but clearly non-elite starters in the honorable mention category: Rick Porcello, Kyle Gibson, Michael Pineda, and Cole Hamels. Odorizzi has outperformed them all since. We’ll see how it all looks when the season is over, but he’s an increasingly notable member of the upcoming class of free agents.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
As a twins fan, jake will take the ball every five days, won’t get injured, and will give you most likely 5-6 shutout innings with a pretty high pitch count. Very rarely does he pitch passes the 7th inning but is reliable starter.
Except this is the first season he’s pitched like you speak of 5-6 shutout innings. He’s been mediocre the previous 5 seasons and had an era above 4 the last 2 years.
Even last year he was pretty solid. There were some starts that were don’t get me wrong very very shaky but when he had his best stuff, he was very un-hitable. It just goes to show.
Also an ERA of 4.50 is actually good. It doesn’t look like it but it is a quality start
An ERA of 4.50 can lead to a “Quality Start” for the statistic, but 6.0 IP and 3 runs allowed doesn’t actually put your team in a great spot to win. You’d expect a bullpen to allow at least 1 additional run over the next 3.0 IP which would lead to your team needing to score 5 runs to win.
Quality Start should really be refined to 6+ innings with an ERA of under 4.00 if it is to carry the meaning it was intended to carry.
It does if your team is the 2019 Twins scoring 6 runs/game. 19 teams are averaging over 4.5 runs/game, so I’d say it’s actually about right for giving your team a decent chance to win.
Great! I’m glad you spent a ton of time researching this like other people have. Side note, how do you get the smell of the crap you pulled out of your rear off your hands?
5-6 innings is solid these days. Across the league, starting pitchers only go an average of 5 1/3 innings anyway.
It’s because pitchers can’t hit the broad side of a barn any more when they’re throwing max effort all the time and the strike zone has shrunk horizontally so much.
It’s a breakout season. Am I the only one willing to say this? Former first round pick, breakout season, period.
Breakout season? I’d say that was 2015.
I cant see the twins not trying to at least sign him to an extension
I still value wins.
This guys has been really good this year. Throws a lot of pitches in short order hence the 5-6 inning starts. Outside of a poor start against the Angels he’s been a shutdown guy. My guess is twins resign him.
Odorizzi is having his luck driven career year at the moment. The home runs will show back up and his ERA will climb back up to at least upper 3s before the end of the season. He’s definitely benefiting from a little extra velocity and a better first pitch strike rate than previous seasons. He may be a functional #4 type starter moving forward after I expected him to be questionably worth a rotation spot for many teams.
There are exactly 40 starters with an expected ERA under 4. More like a decent #2 than a back end guy. I’ll take that.
He has an ERA of 1.92 right now. He’s probably going to finish under a 4.00 ERA because of the extreme luck he’s had so far, not because he earned it, but you’re right, pitchers aren’t too impressive these days. It’s like the steroid era all over again.
He’s hitting his prime years for a big payday. Players know this better than fans. No coincidence
He’s having a great year, but I have a feeling that whichever team loosens the purse strings for him will regret it.
Man, what a group of negative Nellies! Odorizzi is having a great year. His pitching pattern is completely different and his third pitch is better. His mechanics look more consistent and the new pitching coach deserves some credit. He’s blowing batters away elevating his sneaky quick fastball but he still has times when his control isn’t that great.