The Cardinals spent a second-round pick on catcher Carson Kelly in 2012 and saw him continue as a strong prospect in the ensuing years, but he never got a chance to shine as a Redbird. Kelly was instead stuck in the shadow of franchise icon Yadier Molina, who further solidified his place in the organization with a three-year, $60MM extension at the outset of the 2017 season. With Molina locked in at high prices through 2020, the Cardinals finally decided last offseason that Kelly was expendable. They traded the 24-year-old to the Diamondbacks in a package for superstar first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, who has fallen short of expectations in his first few months in St. Louis.
Unlike Goldschmidt, Kelly has thrived in his new environment. Serving as the Diamondbacks’ primary catcher, Kelly has slashed .275/.352/.538 (123 wRC+) with 10 home runs in 193 plate appearances. Most of the right-handed Kelly’s damage at the plate has come versus lefty pitchers, whom he has destroyed for a line of .383/.473/.766 over a small sample of 55 PA, though he has also been playable against righties. Thanks in part to his impressive offensive output, Kelly has already totaled 1.7 fWAR, which ties for seventh among catchers and happens to easily outdo the minus-0.2 Molina has mustered to this point. It even upstages Goldschmidt’s 0.7.
Adding to his value, Kelly has been an outstanding defender in his first year in the desert. That isn’t necessarily a surprise, as Kelly was a lauded backstop during his days as a prospect. Nevertheless, the fact that he’s delivering in that area in his first extensive action in the majors is no doubt comforting to the Diamondbacks.
According to Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average metric, only 15 catchers have been superior defenders to Kelly this season. He’s the game’s sixth-best blocker and its 24th-ranked pitch framer, per BP, and has also held his own at the less obscure art of throwing out runners. Kelly has caught 9 of 25 would-be base stealers, giving him a 36 percent success rate which ranks 9 percent better than the league-average mark.
While Kelly does indeed look like a legitimate starting catcher, the question is whether he’s this good. On the offensive side, probably not, says Statcast, which indicates there has been substantial luck behind his .368 weighted on-base average. Kelly’s wOBA places him in company with All-Star Gary Sanchez, yet his .311 expected xwOBA aligns him with Tyler Flowers and puts him in the majors’ 30th percentile. Kelly’s also below average in terms of expected batting average (16th percentile), expected slugging percentage (42nd), hard-hit rate (48th) and exit velocity (48th). That said, catchers don’t have to be offensive juggernauts – especially when they’re as adept as Kelly is behind the plate. Backing up BP’s framing numbers, Statcast places Kelly in the league’s 96th percentile in that area.
Although Kelly’s production as a hitter this year may not be sustainable, you don’t need to be a force at the plate to serve as a quality starting catcher. Just 18 backstops, Kelly included, have cleared the 1.0-fWAR bar this season. Furthermore, even if Kelly’s offense wanes, his defensive chops give him a high floor which could help make him the Diamondbacks’ answer at his position for the foreseeable future. Kelly won’t be eligible for arbitration until after 2020 or free agency until the conclusion of the 2024 campaign, so Arizona may not have to look for another primary catcher for a while.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Happy for him. Glad to see him succeed.
That Goldschmidt deal is looking better and better lol
Weaver’s recovery will have a lot to do with that. I also expect Goldy to rebound at some point this season or next year. The trade still looks much better for AZ than the “experts” thought at the time. As a DBacks fan, I still really miss Goldy but such is life
Completely agree with you, Sidewinder. We can never replace Goldy, but it’s nice having a great young and controlled catcher that can hit, something we haven’t had since Miguel Montero.
Well I assume that something that helps the fans of Arizona is the job that the 5 year rookie Christian Walker is doing at 1st base. (Go Gamecocks!)
I would love to know how much Goldy would have gotten this off-season after his current season.
Perfect example of how a top prospect will only shine in the Majors if they get regular PT.
The Diamondbacks thought they got that with Chris Herrmann who was blocked by Joe Mauer in Minnesota, were definitely mistaken, and then Peter O’Brien who was blocked by Brian McCann in NY. We all found out about the lack of rave reviews on his defense as a catcher or OF.
O’Brien was never anything close to being a top prospect.
O’Brien was always seen as a 1 tool (power) prospect whose play at catcher were suspect at best. Oscar Hernandez would have been a better name to use there. Taken from A ball in the rule 5 to be their catcher of the future. But of course you wouldn’t have the chance to be witty in your use of “rave reviews”. A dead horse that a few of you keep kicking.
Weaver and Kelly = 3.0 bWAR
Goldy = 0.8 bWAR
I love Yadi being a Card for his whole career, but that extension was nonsensical and this article helps tell why. The Cardinals brass just kept bringing in lesser players to backup Yadi and Carson was never given any real shot. Why? Who knows, other than the FO.
I do know that they’ve put a lot of future eggs in Knizner’s future basket. They’d better hope those eggs don’t get scrambled.
Knizner looks good…but time will tell…have to admit that although I adore and love Yadi…it might be time to move on
Knizer is the only reason the Cardinals decided they would move Kelly.
If he’s their long term answer at C, then why is a trade rumors site writing about him? Seems like he won’t be leaving anytime soon.
Because this site isn’t limited to trade rumors. The name is a misnomer at this point but a site this popular doesn’t up and change it’s name years in just because it is broadening its scope
Glad Odúbel Herrera is suspended. He got what he deserves. Maybe next time someone is suspended there entire paycheck is taken away no matter how many games they are suspended.
Why did they close comments on that?
I was wondering about that…..
They would probably be all bad so why bother…..
Because when they’ve left it open in similar situations, especially when it involved domestic violence, it continually devolved into a cesspool of flaming and trolling, and after they (predictably) kept on getting the same results, they decided that it wasn’t worth enabling comments on those articles.
You are 100% right. Everyone can assume what he did, and wouldn’t be far off. I think in the context of MLBTR, there could be a conversation about what the Phillies are going to do (or continue to do) in his absence, and what they will do about the upcoming contract years. If the commenters could keep the topic to this, MLBTR wouldn’t have to close the comments so much when these things occur.
Part of his punishment is he can’t participate in postseason play. I can only assume the league knew of his problems, and pre-emptively forced the Phillies to hire Gabe Kapler.
Because mlb trade rumors has evolved to write all kinds of fun and intersting baseball articles?
Nothing wrong with that. I enjoy reading things like this, so thank you mlbtraderumors!
Getting playing time. Building relationships with the pitchers. Great spot to be in and he’s improving.
Congrats Arizona…I said for the beginning that this trade was worth Kelly alone…I think weaver will pan out also…at least a nice 4th or 5th starter for you…now can you call up Goldy and tell him to start hitting…it would be much appreciated
Weaver ceiling is a number 2 starter. His strikeout rates put him at 3 for sure.
Weaver’s ceiling is at or better than the $68M Miles Mikolas the Cards kept instead of him.
Kelly is fun to watch. A lot better than watching double play Avila.
ON ODUBEL—Suspended without pay for the rest of the season seems in concert with MLB other domvil situations. He was a mess on the field before it happened so at least team can try to play better baseball without wondering what they will do when h comes back.
Likely they trade him before he ever puts on Phillies uniform again. As a fan of he team I probably won’t miss him or his play..
How and why you trade a young catcher with his ability, when you have a 36 year old catcher at the end of his rope, is beyond me? Then again, it’s Mo.
Yet you find the need to call him what you just called him and wonder why they don’t let people comment on those articles?
Huh?
What ‘?
Come again?