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Blue Jays Notes: Hudson, Red Sox, Sogard, Pompey

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Daniel Hudson’s strong season is drawing trade attention from the Red Sox and multiple other teams, MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi reports (Twitter link).  The Blue Jays signed Hudson to a one-year, $1.5MM contract over the offseason, and the 32-year-old is on pace to deliver his best season as a relief pitcher, with a 2.72 ERA, 8.8 K/9, and 2.00 K/BB rate over 43 innings.  The Red Sox are known to be looking at the high end of the bullpen market, though it isn’t surprising that they would also be seeking out pitchers like Hudson, who wouldn’t cost nearly as much in the way of prospects.

Hudson’s performance comes with some red flags, however, as ERA predictors (4.46 FIP, 5.51 xFIP, 4.67 SIERA) hint that Hudson is due for some major regression, and he is allowing a lot of hard contact — 40% of Hudson’s balls in play are hard-hit.  On the plus side, Hudson’s fastball velocity and spin rate both rank in the 89th percentile or better of all qualified pitchers, so a lot of that hard contact is going for naught (or is being converted into relatively harmless fly balls, as his 47.5% fly ball rate is well above his 39.2% career average).

Here’s more out of Toronto….

  • In another tweet from Morosi, Eric Sogard is getting some looks from teams in search of a utilityman, especially clubs turned off by the Royals’ “crazy” asking price on Whit Merrifield.  Sogard is another unheralded offseason signing who has become a big contributor for the Jays, with a .305/.369/.491 slash line (128 wRC+) and 10 homers over 304 plate appearances.  MLBTR’s Jeff Todd recently explored how Sogard’s unexpected power surge has been something of a mirage, though Sogard’s solid contact skills and defensive versatility make him an asset even if his bat cools off.  He has worked mostly as a second baseman this year, though also with time at third base, shortstop, and both corner outfield positions.
  • The Blue Jays are facing a decision about Dalton Pompey, Sportsnet.ca’s Arden Zwelling writes, as Pompey’s 20-day injury rehab assignment is up on Monday.  Since Pompey is out of options, the Jays have to either call the outfielder up to the majors, or designate him for assignment.  It isn’t out of the question that Pompey could come through DFA limbo without being claimed, Zwelling notes, as other teams might also not want to spend a 25-man roster spot on his services.  Once a consensus top-50 prospect prior to the 2015 season, Pompey has fallen off the radar after several injury-plagued years, including multiple concussions.  He only returned to action in early July after suffering another concussion during Spring Training.

Minor MLB Transactions: 7/21/19

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The latest minor moves from around baseball…

  • The Blue Jays outrighted Nick Kingham to Triple-A after the right-handed cleared waivers, according to a team announcement.  Kingham was acquired from the Pirates in mid-June, and he posted a 3.50 ERA over 18 relief innings for Toronto before being designated for assignment earlier this week.  Formerly a top-100 prospect during his time in Pittsburgh’s farm system, Kingham has only a 6.23 ERA over 128 2/3 career frames at the big league level.

Red Sox Interested In Ken Giles, Kirby Yates

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While Nathan Eovaldi has been slated to become Boston’s closer, the Red Sox continue to monitor the closer market, with MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi (via Twitter) reporting that the Sox have “active interest” in the Blue Jays’ Ken Giles and the Padres’ Kirby Yates.

The bullpen has been seen as a longstanding problem for the Sox dating back to the offseason, when the team seemed content to let Craig Kimbrel leave in free agency and then more or less stand pat with its relief options.  That strategy has resulted in some pretty inconsistent results from the Red Sox pen this season, with Eovaldi’s recent role change seen as a two birds-with-one stone idea that would both help preserve Eovaldi’s elbow and get him back on a mound quicker, and also address Boston’s need for a stable closer.

Of course, Eovaldi has no experience closing games, so it makes sense that the Sox would at least be checking into options like Yates and Giles to see if another move was possible.  That said, there are a lot of obstacles standing in the way of a trade for either closer.  The Jays have a big asking price on Giles, while the Padres would reportedly only trade Yates for “an overwhelming offer.”  Ergo, acquiring either right-hander would require the Sox to dig deep into an already-thin farm system.

In a pure bidding war for young minor leaguers, it seems unlikely that the Sox would be able to outbid most other interested suitors for either Giles or Yates, and their normal financial might (in terms of taking on money to accommodate trades) is limited by the team’s close proximity to the top luxury tax threshold of $246MM.  Neither Giles or Yates are on particularly big salaries, though every dollar counts considering Roster Resource has Boston’s luxury tax number at just under $244MM.

While high-profile trades between division rivals are usually pretty rare, the Red Sox and Blue Jays combined on a notable deal just last summer, when the Sox acquired future World Series MVP from Toronto.  By contrast, one wonders if the Sox could actually have a tougher time completing a trade with the Padres given the controversy that erupted between the two clubs over the Drew Pomeranz deal in July 2016.  That said, San Diego and Boston have combined on one swap since the Pomeranz trade, the relatively minor deal last November that saw Colten Brewer go to the Sox.

If nothing else, Boston’s interest in Giles and Yates indicates that the team still sees itself as a contender and a buyer at the trade deadline.  At this point, however, it seems like the Sox are vying only for a wild card spot, as Boston sits 11 games behind the Yankees in the AL East race.  The Red Sox are three games behind Oakland for the final AL wild card berth, and with a tough road to travel just to get to a one-game playoff, there has been some suggestion (from both the Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham and MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo) that the Sox should consider trading some veterans to unload salary and restock on young talent for another run in 2020.

Boston’s next 14 games are all against either the Yankees or the Rays, with eight of those games coming before the July 31 trade deadline.  Both Abraham and Cotillo cite this upcoming stretch as the potential turning point of the Red Sox season, with Abraham describing the team’s July 29 off-day as “the organization’s deadline to decide whether this season is worth trying to save.”

AL West Notes: Kelley, Peacock, Puk

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Shawn Kelley will undergo an MRI after feeling what the Rangers described as right biceps tendon soreness during today’s game, manager Chris Woodward told MLB.com’s Alyson Footer and other reporters.  Kelley left today’s game without throwing a pitch, as the veteran righty’s injury developed during his warmup pitches after being called out of the bullpen during the eighth inning.  Over 33 innings this season, Kelley has posted a 3.00 ERA, 8.73 K/9, and a 6.4 K/BB rate, so he’ll be sorely missed in the Texas bullpen if an injured list placement is required.

Kelley’s loss could be doubly problematic for the Rangers since the 35-year-old profiled as a potential trade chip for a Texas club that seems to be falling out of contention.  After surprising many by staying within striking distance of the wild card hunt, a seven-game losing streak has dropped Texas to a 50-49 record and a deficit of 6.5 games between the Rangers and the A’s for the last AL wild card berth.  With such players as Mike Minor and Danny Santana already drawing trade interest from rival teams, Texas is running short on time to prove to the front office that it can contend.

Some more from around the AL West…

  • In an interview on the Astros’ pregame show today (hat tip to the Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome), general manager Jeff Luhnow projected that Brad Peacock will likely be out of action until roughly the “middle of next month, realistically.”  Peacock’s recovery from shoulder inflammation hit a setback last week, and the right-hander is now looking at an injured list stint of at least six weeks (he hit the IL on June 28) if Luhnow’s mid-August timeline ends up being accurate.  Peacock’s extended absence has only further deepened the Astros’ need for pitching reinforcements, as he was expected to return from the IL last week.
  • Top Athletics pitching prospect A.J. Puk will be promoted to the organization’s Triple-A affiliate, according to Melissa Lockard of The Athletic (Twitter link).  After Tommy John surgery forced Puk to miss all of 2018, the 6’7″ left-hander got back into action in June, posting a 5.02 ERA, 13.8 K/9, and 3.14 K/BB rate over 14 1/3 combined innings at Double-A and high-A ball.  They aren’t exactly dominant numbers for Puk, though between his long layoff and perhaps some bad luck (four homers in those 14 1/3 IP), the A’s are clearly encouraged enough to give Puk his first taste of Triple-A competition.  The hard-throwing Puk would very likely have been in the big leagues last season had he avoided injury, and is still on track to make his MLB debut this season if he stays healthy.  While the A’s will surely be as cautious as possible with one of their top young hurlers, Puk has the potential to be a very intriguing addition to Oakland’s bullpen or perhaps even the rotation as the A’s continue to chase another postseason berth.
  • In AL West news from earlier today, the Angels officially released Matt Harvey, and the Mariners acquired righty Matt Magill in a trade with the Twins.

Latest On Braves’ Trade Targets

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Reports from earlier this month suggested that the Braves hadn’t had any talks with the Blue Jays about Marcus Stroman, and ten days later, this is still the case, according to David O’Brien of The Athletic (Twitter link).  It could be that the Braves are more focused on another Toronto pitcher in closer Ken Giles, as O’Brien writes that “I get [the] impression Giles could be a target” for Atlanta.

The Braves were one of eight teams who had scouts on hand Friday to watch Stroman’s most recent start, though as with many “scouts were in attendance…” types of reports at this time of year, this could be due diligence as much as a case of genuine interest on Atlanta’s part.  Given that the Jays were facing another out-of-contention team in the Tigers, the Braves could have been more focused on some of Detroit’s trade candidates, in addition to Stroman, Giles, or other trade chips on the Blue Jays roster.  (Giles, for the record, didn’t pitch on Friday through he did toss a scoreless inning for the save in Saturday’s game.)

Beyond just scouting, the Braves obviously have a very well-informed source on all things Stroman in general manager Alex Anthopoulos, whose front office made Stroman the 22nd overall pick in 2012 when Anthopoulos was Toronto’s GM.  There has been some speculation as to whether any hard feelings between Anthopoulos and current Jays management could hamper any trade talks between the two clubs, though The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (Twitter links) notes that the Blue Jays’ “stance has softened” about making deals with Atlanta, if a particularly hard line was taken at all.

Toronto is known to be seeking a big return for Stroman, and the “ask is high” on Giles as well, in O’Brien’s words.  Giles is not only under team control through 2020, but he is also one of the very best relievers on the trade market this month.  The 28-year-old righty has a 1.64 ERA, 5.7 K/BB rate, and an enormous 15.55 K/9 over 33 innings this season. 

Armed with a fastball that has above-average spin (as per Statcast) and an average velocity of 97.3 mph, Giles has quietly been one of baseball’s more dominant closers, and is seemingly all the way back to top form after running into some difficulties on the field and off with the Astros in 2017-18.  While postseason struggles were a big part of Giles’ issues in Houston, he still represents a more proven ninth-inning answer than the Braves’ current closer, Luke Jackson.

Like many other teams, the Braves aren’t keen on giving up their top prospects for rental players, making Stroman (who also has an arbitration year remaining) and Giles more palatable trade targets since they can also help the club in 2020.  Just one year of control, however, might not be enough to pry away some of the Braves’ top prospects from their highly-rated farm system.  Gabriel Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution lists right-handers Ian Anderson and Kyle Wright and outfielders Cristian Pache and Drew Waters (the Braves’ top four minor leaguers, according to MLB.com’s rankings) as the youngsters that could be closest to untouchable in trade discussions.  None would be dealt “unless it’s for a controllable difference maker,” Burns writes, and it remains to be seen if the Braves would consider Stroman or Giles at that level.  This is purely my opinion, but I doubt Atlanta would deal any of those prospects for a reliever, even one as talented as Giles.

It’s easy for fans or armchair GMs to argue that the Braves should be more forthcoming to deal from their large wealth of prospects, though ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (subscription required) noted that these minor leaguers are particularly important to a Braves organization that is more than a little hamstrung in the international market due to the signing violations that cost former GM John Coppolella his job in 2017.  Since the Braves front office also seems to be operating with a mid-level payroll at best, it makes the pipeline of talent like Pache, Anderson, Wright, and Waters all the more important to the team going forward.

Danny Santana Drawing Trade Interest

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At the All-Star break, the Rangers sat on the brink of playoff contention, looking like a team that could be a surprise bet to conservatively buy at the trade deadline. However, any hopes of contention look to be quickly vanishing, and the front office may not have to debate whether to buy or sell. Sunday’s loss makes it seven straight games that the Rangers have dropped, leaving the club just a game over .500 and now in fourth place in the division.

Should the Rangers elect to trade off veteran pieces and regroup in hopes of building a future contender, utilityman Danny Santana may be among the most coveted Rangers on the market. Per J.P. Morosi of MLB Network, the 28-year-old has garnered interest from several teams around baseball and could fetch a nice return for Texas. Though no specific teams are named, it seems reasonable to assume that most every team in playoff position would welcome a versatile offensive weapon. As Morosi notes, that interest may be heightened in light of the Royals’ steep asking price for Whit Merrifield, who would be the most attractive utility player on the market if the Kansas City weren’t so reluctant to let him go.

Santana, for his part, emerged as one of a number of minor-league signings fueling the Rangers’ surprise first-half performance. Formerly of the Twins and Braves, Santana appeared to have peaked as a rookie, when he posted a .824 OPS as a 23-year-old. After that, Santana’s OPS never climbed above .606 in a single season—until now, with an evolving approach leading to an offensive breakout. After posting below-average exit velocity numbers in his first years in the Majors, balls have left Santana’s bat at an average of 91.1 mph this season, a mark that ranks in the 83rd percentile, per Baseball Savant. Not only is he hitting the ball harder, but he is elevating it, leading to a career-high 13 home runs and a .250 ISO. With average launch angles of 3.4˚ in 2017 and 9.1˚ last season, that number has jumped to 12.3˚ this season. He likewise ranks favorably in hard-hit rate and expected batting metrics, indicating that his current performance cannot be easily dismissed as a fluke.

To be sure, though, Santana has outperformed those expected batting marks to some degree: his actual wOBA (.381) is nearly 40 points higher than expected (.342) and the same can be said for his batting average (.320 actual versus .282 expected), perhaps in large part thanks to an astronomical .399 BABIP. In that respect, then, teams may be hesitant to pencil Santana in to match his first half production. Those who inquire on Santana are essentially looking at a half-season’s worth of production, making Santana a more risky investment than players with long track records of success. That may depress his value somewhat, but Rangers general manager Jon Daniels should still be able to get a solid return, especially considering that Santana received virtually no attention when he signed in Texas.

However, those expected marks are still more than enough to attract some interest from contending clubs. Santana’s ability to play across the diamond might lower the offensive bar somewhat; teams in the hunt for a World Series won’t acquire Santana with the expectation that he plays every day at one position—rather, he might be deployed a la Chris Taylor or Marwin Gonzalez, hunting favorable matchups and spelling injured or resting regulars.

Santana has appeared at six different positions for the Rangers this season, providing passable (if unspectacular) defense. If defensive metrics like DRS and UZR are to be believed, Santana fits best as a middle infielder, largely grading out below average in the outfield. However, that doesn’t mean that he can’t provide value as an outfielder—giving his manager another option is valuable in and of itself, and Santana doesn’t have to play any one position exceptionally as long as he can play several capably. He’s also stolen 12 bases at a roughly 70% clip, which is an added bonus for Santana’s skillset.

Of course, money is always of interest in trade discussions, and Santana’s value only grows from a financial perspective. Agreeing to a minor-league deal with the Rangers prior to the season, his salary comes in at the league minimum, meaning that interested teams will owe essentially negligible money to Santana, who is controllable through 2021. His combination of affordability and the potential for long-term value—in addition to on-field performance—should make him an attractive candidate for plenty of teams between now and July 31. As Rangers position-players go, Santana may be the most valuable one who is likely to be dealt.

Nationals Place Austin Voth On IL, Recall Joe Ross

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The Nationals have placed right-handed pitcher Austin Voth on the 10-day injured list and have recalled pitcher Joe Ross, according to Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post. Voth is dealing with bicep tendinitis; his IL placement comes retroactive to Thursday.

Voth, 27, has emerged as a capable starter for the Nationals, making four starts and posting a serviceable 4.35 ERA through 20 2/3 innings of work. He’s managed to strike out almost a batter per inning, accumulating 20 K’s compared to just 6 walks. He’ll hit a bump in the road with the injury, and the Nats will be down their fifth starter for at least ten days, but the good news is that Max Scherzer may be nearing a return to the rotation.

Ross, meanwhile, has spent the last month playing out an assignment in the minor leagues after a disappointing showing with the Big League team. Since being converted to a reliever, the 26-year-old has worked to a miserable 11.05 ERA in 17 outings, fueled in part by a walk rate that has ballooned to 11.5%, by far the worst mark of his career, which has spanned parts of five seasons. Those struggles earned him a demotion to Triple-A, where he has made eight starts and posted a 4.28 ERA.

Dougherty goes on to note (via Twitter) that relief pitcher Michael Blazek is expected to join the Nats’ active roster in the near future, and was considered to be added today. However, it looks as if the club intends to option Ross in the near future to make room for Blazek, who hasn’t appeared in a Major League game since 2017.

Cubs Interested In Nicholas Castellanos, Shane Greene

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2:45pm: David Kaplan of NBC Sports Chicago adds (via Twitter) that the Cubs have also checked in on Tigers closer Shane Greene. The two teams could pursue a package deal that sends both Greene and Castellanos to Chicago, though as Kaplan notes, the Cubs would have to surrender considerable prospect capital to consummate such an agreement. The aforementioned pair includes two of the Tigers’ most coveted assets, and Detroit will be careful not to be undersold. Greene, unlike Castellanos, is controllable through the 2020 season.

11:01am: The Cubs are among the teams with interest in Tigers right fielder Nicholas Castellanos, per Chris McCosky of the Detroit News. “This one has some teeth,” McCosky adds.

Whether it’s Chicago or another team that acquires Castellanos, he’s a near lock to leave the Motor City by the July 31 trade deadline. The Tigers likely aren’t going to extend the 27-year-old impending free agent, so they figure to get what they can for him. For now, he’s on a $9.95MM salary.

While the Tigers don’t seem to want him around for the long haul, Castellanos is amid his fourth straight quality offensive season with the club. Castellanos has slashed .280/.339/.467 (111 wRC+) with 10 home runs in 404 plate appearances, and has posted a formidable .887 OPS over the past 30 days.

There’s little question Castellanos has value at the dish, but the same isn’t true of his work as a defender. And if he goes to the Cubs, he won’t be able to slot in as a designated hitter. Castellanos has combined for minus-33 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-24.6 Ultimate Zone Rating since moving from third base to right in 2017. He’s at minus-7 and minus-4.0 in those categories this year.

For the Cubs, acquiring Castellanos would likely mean moving bounce-back right fielder Jason Heyward to center, where the Cubs have deployed the light-hitting Albert Almora for most of the season. On the offensive side, a Castellanos pickup would almost surely improve the NL Central-leading Cubs’ outlook against left-handed pitchers, who have held their hitters to a below-average .232/.317/.405/ line. The righty-swinging Castellanos, on the other hand, has been a terror versus southpaws, whom he has crushed to the tune of .377/.451/.639.

Giants Designate Derek Holland, Ryder Jones

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The Giants have designated left-hander Derek Holland for assignment, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area reports. In addition, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets that Ryder Jones has also been designated for assignment, clearing a second spot on the Giants’ 40-man roster.

Holland, formerly with the Rangers and White Sox, joined the Giants entering 2018 on a minor league contract. He was coming off multiple rough seasons at the time, but Holland made his way to San Francisco last year and enjoyed a career renaissance. Holland’s output a year ago was enough to convince new president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi to make the 32-year-old his most expensive free-agent signing in a modest winter for the club.

The Giants inked Holland to a one-year, $7MM guarantee with a matching club option for 2020. They’re now likely have to eat the approximately $2.67MM remaining on Holland’s deal, as it’s difficult to believe a team would take on him and his money in light of the subpar production he has put up this season.

Holland got off to such a poor start out of the Giants’ rotation this season that they shifted him to their bullpen. Neither job has worked out that well in 2019 for Holland, though. Across 68 2/3 innings, Holland has pitched to a 5.90 ERA/6.08 FIP with 9.31 K/9, 4.59 BB/9 and a 41.4 percent groundball rate. Home runs helped lead to the death of Holland’s Giants tenure, as he yielded them on 23 percent of fly balls this year en route to his designation. He did, however, stymie same-handed hitters, who batted .182/.276/.195 against him. With that in mind, perhaps a team will take a chance on Holland as a LOOGY. Regardless, his next deal will likely be of the minor league variety.

Jones, meanwhile, has largely failed to live up to expectations after the Giants made him a second-round draft selection in 2013. With just four home runs and a .133 ISO in his Major League career, he has yet to show the power that is necessary for a lumbering corner infielder. Jones’s struggles this season—the first under Zaidi—may have sealed his fate; the 25-year-old has managed just a .529 OPS across several levels of the minor leagues, though injuries have limited his availability, having appeared in just 12 games. Jones could be an intriguing case for teams eyeing the waiver wire, given his draft history, age, and raw power.

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