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Sorting Through The Orioles’ Rotation Options

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The Orioles headed into the winter intent on adding a pair of veterans to the rotation, and while there was a substantial layoff between their first and second additions, with Kyle Gibson signing a one-year deal back on Dec. 5 and Cole Irvin not joining the staff until last Friday’s trade. That gives the O’s a pair of veterans who are plenty capable of eating up innings while still also leaving a fairly wide-open window for several younger arms to pitch their way into the team’s plans.

In all likelihood, the Orioles will wind up using ten or more starters over the course of the season. It’s commonplace for teams to cycle through far more than the five (or six) members of the Opening Day rotation — particularly younger teams like Baltimore, where the rotation will be composed primarily of yet-unproven starters and/or prospects whose workloads will be handled with care.

Locks

Kyle Gibson, RHP: Whether by design or by happenstance, the decision to bring in Gibson over 2022 staff innings leader Jordan Lyles wound up being a cost-neutral gambit, which will lead to inevitable comparisons between the two. The Orioles bought Lyles’ $11MM club option out for $1MM, then turned around and invested the exact same $10MM they saved into a one-year deal with Gibson.

The 35-year-old Gibson, like Lyles, is a workhorse by today’s standards. He’s averaged 29.875 starts per 162-game season, dating back to 2014, and made a full slate of 12 starts in the shortened 2020 season. He has a below-average strikeout rate with solid command and above-average ground-ball tendencies. The O’s are going to count on him for 30-plus starts and 160-plus innings, although if they’re not in contention when the trade deadline rolls around, it’s easy to see them putting Gibson on the market.

Cole Irvin, LHP: For the second time in as many weeks, I’m listing Irvin as a “lock” in a team’s rotation while profiling their various options on the back end of the staff. As noted on that rundown of the A’s rotation, there was always a chance that Irvin could be moved, though a midseason deal felt likelier. The O’s instead jumped to add Irvin as a durable source of innings.

Over the past two seasons, he’s made 62 starts of 4.11 ERA ball with a well below-average 16.8% strikeout rate but a superb 5.2% walk rate as a member of Oakland’s rotation. That’ll be the type of production they’re looking for not just this year but for the next several seasons. Irvin is controlled for another four years and won’t even be arbitration-eligible until next offseason.

There’s some risk in acquiring Irvin, who’s had far more success at the spacious Oakland Coliseum than on the road. Dating back to Opening Day 2021, the lefty owns a 3.44 ERA pitching in Oakland, where opponents have batted just .243/.288/.355 against him in nearly 800 plate appearances. In that same timeframe, Irvin’s road ERA is a more alarming 4.88, and opponents have pounced on him for a .285/.330/.491 slash. The O’s recently made their left field dimensions quite a bit more pitcher-friendly, but Irvin will still be facing some righty-heavy lineups within the AL East.

Pitchers who made 15+ starts in 2022

Dean Kremer, RHP: Kremer, 27, finished second on the Orioles with 125 1/3 innings pitched and notched a tidy 3.23 ERA last season despite a tepid 17% strikeout rate. Kremer, acquired from the Dodgers in the Manny Machado trade, doesn’t miss bats or keep the ball on the ground, but he has a better-than-average walk rate. Any regression in his 0.79 HR/9 mark or his 77.8% left-on-base rate — he entered the season at 2.12 and 65.1%, respectively — could spike his ERA closer to his 4.54 SIERA. That said, Kremer at least looks the part of a back-of-the-rotation arm. And, now that he’s poised to take on a larger workload, he should at least be a decent source of average-ish innings.

Kyle Bradish, RHP: One of four minor leaguers acquired in the trade sending Dylan Bundy to the Angels, Bradish ranked third on the 2022 O’s with 117 2/3 innings pitched. He missed more bats and generated more grounders than Kremer but was also more prone to both walks and home runs. Bradish’s 4.90 ERA isn’t much to look at, but while fielding-independent metrics feel Kremer had some good fortune in ’22, the opposite is true of Bradish, whose FIP, SIERA, etc. are all quite a bit lower than his earned run average. Both pitchers seem capable of turning in an ERA in the low- or mid-4.00s over 150-plus innings.

Spenser Watkins, RHP: A former 30th-round pick by the Tigers, Watkins signed with the O’s as a minor league free agent in Jan. 2021 and debuted as a 29-year-old rookie later that season. He tallied 105 1/3 innings for the 2022 Orioles, posting a 4.70 ERA along the way. Among the 156 pitchers with at least 150 innings thrown since 2021, no one has posted a lower strikeout rate than Watkins’ 13.7%. His 7.9% swinging-strike rate is fifth-lowest among that group. Watkins has good command and has posted solid numbers in Triple-A over the past two seasons, but he feels like more of a depth option based on his big league work to date.

Tyler Wells, RHP: Baltimore’s most effective starter for much of the 2022 season, Wells carried a 3.09 ERA through his first 16 starts but needed a .225 average on balls in play to get there. That minimal BABIP and a 16.7% strikeout rate made the ERA look fairly dubious, and Wells indeed struggled mightily over his final few starts of the season. It should be noted that he missed more than a month due to a side injury and landed back on the shelf due to shoulder trouble to close out the year, but he nonetheless yielded a 7.39 ERA over his final 28 innings (seven starts). None of Wells, Kremer or Bradish miss bats at a particularly high level, nor do they possess elite command or ground-ball tendencies. They each have some appealing traits, however, and any of this trio could be a viable fourth/fifth starter.

Austin Voth, RHP: Continuing on that trend, Voth is another fly-ball pitcher with passable but not eye-catching strikeout and walk numbers. Claimed off waivers from the Nationals in early June, Voth made 17 starts and five relief appearances, pitching to a 3.04 ERA in that time. He’s not going to keep stranding 82% of the baserunners he allows — that’s 10 percentage points above the league average and above Voth’s career mark prior to 2022 — but he has the makings of a back-end starter, as he’s shown on occasion with the Nats in the past. Voth is out of minor league options, so he’s going to be on the roster either as a starter or as a swingman.

The Top Prospects

Grayson Rodriguez, RHP: The arm on which so many Orioles fans are pinning their hopes, the 23-year-old Rodriguez might have already made his big league debut were it not for a lat strain that sidelined him for half the 2022 season. Rodriguez, selected with the No. 11 pick of the 2018 draft, ranks among the sport’s top 15 overall prospects at each of Baseball America (6), MLB.com (7), ESPN (12) and The Athletic (15). A 6’5″, 220-pound righty armed with a four-pitch mix that’s headlined by an upper-90s heater and elite changeup, Rodriguez has genuine front-of-the-rotation potential.

Rodriguez is regarded as one of the sport’s five best pitching prospects, and now that the new CBA actually reward teams for promoting prospects via potential draft compensation based on Rookie of the Year voting, Rodriguez will have a legitimate chance to make the Opening Day rotation. The O’s may want to be cautious, as that lat strain limited him to just 75 2/3 innings in 2022 and a jump to a full season of MLB starts would probably more than double that total. Rodriguez might be the organization’s best starter right now, even though he hasn’t made his MLB debut. He posted a combined 2.62 ERA across three minor league levels and did so with a mammoth 36.6% strikeout rate against a 9.3% walk rate. He’s going to make his MLB debut in 2023 — it’s just a matter of when.

DL Hall, LHP: Unlike Rodriguez, Hall has already made his debut at the MLB level, although it didn’t go as the team had hoped. The former No. 21 overall pick pitched in 11 games — 10 of them relief appearances — but was tagged for nine runs on 17 hits and six walks. The resulting 5.93 ERA wasn’t particularly encouraging, but Hall fanned 19 opponents (29.7%) and issued walks at a lower clip in the Majors than he had in Triple-A (9.4% versus 14.2%).

Command issues have long been the primary flaw scouts see in Hall — a 6’2″ lefty with a heater that averaged 96.4 mph during that MLB debut and multiple plus or better secondary pitches. Baseball America pegs Hall’s fastball as an 80 on the 20-80 scale, while also crediting him with a plus-plus slider, a plus curve and a plus changeup. Unfortunately, all of that is accompanied by well below-average command. Hall has walked 13.4% of his opponents in the minors, and in his 18 minor league starts this past season, he completed six innings just once. Some of that is the Orioles being cautious with an arm they hold in high regard, but Hall averaged 75 pitches per outing despite averaging under four innings per start. Certainly, he could stand to be more efficient.

Last year’s 98 innings were a career-high for Hall, who’s also missed ample time due to injury in his pro career. Between the lack of innings and the shaky command, many scouting reports feel he’s likelier to be a dynamic reliever than a starter, but the O’s will likely give him some considerable leash as a starter because the ceiling is so high.

Other options on the 40-man

Mike Baumann, RHP: The 27-year-old Baumann was one of the organization’s best pitching prospects as recently as two years ago, but a flexor strain cost him time and he hasn’t topped 100 innings in either of the past two seasons. The O’s have begun working Baumann out of the bullpen more frequently, and given the number of rotation options the organization has, that could be a better path to the big leagues for him. There’s benefit to keeping him stretched out as a starter, of course, but Baumann made just 13 starts to 20 relief appearances last year.

Bruce Zimmermann, LHP: A local product the O’s acquired in the trade that sent Kevin Gausman and Darren O’Day to the Braves back in 2018, Zimmermann has pitched in parts of three seasons for the O’s but never posted an ERA south of 5.00. In 145 MLB frames, he carries a 5.69 ERA (5.78 FIP, 4.43 SIERA) with a low 17.6% strikeout rate but a strong 5.7% walk rate. Zimmermann has averaged just 91.3 mph on his heater, and opponents have teed off on both that pitch and his changeup, clubbing an average of 2.23 homers per nine innings against the southpaw. Zimmermann still has a pair of option years remaining and has been good in Triple-A over the past two seasons, but he needs to find a way to curtail his issues with the long ball.

Drew Rom, LHP: The O’s selected Rom to the 40-man roster back in November to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft. The 2018 fourth-rounder split the 2022 season between Double-A and Triple-A, logging a combined 4.43 ERA with a 27.1% strikeout rate, 8.9% walk rate and solid ground-ball tendencies. He’s not an overpowering lefty, but he’s pretty close to big league ready and the O’s clearly felt he’d have been poached in the Rule 5 had he gone unprotected. There are a lot of candidates for innings in Baltimore, but he’ll be in the mix to debut this year.

Recovering from injury

John Means, LHP: Baltimore’s best starter from 2019-21, Means logged a 3.73 ERA in 345 1/3 innings during that time and was named the Orioles’ Opening Day starter in 2022. He made just two starts last year before an elbow injury shelved him, however, and Means underwent Tommy John surgery in late April. That’ll take him out of the equation early in the year, but the O’s can hope for Means to return at some point over the summer. He only has two years of club control remaining.

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As things stand, the Orioles have two veteran locks (Gibson, Irvin), a series of righties who achieved solid results despite middling K/BB and batted-ball profiles in 2022 (Kremer, Bradish, Wells, Voth) and a pair electric prospects (Rodriguez, Hall) — the former of which is arguably the top pitching prospect in baseball.

It’s a promising group, but the O’s will need to convert on Rodriguez and either see Hall improve his command or another young arm (e.g. Cade Povich) take a pronounced step forward in 2023. Baltimore’s system is rife with high-end bats but less stocked with arms. A rotation featuring Rodriguez (assuming he hits the ground running) and a host of No. 4 types is enough to compete, but it’s still a bit surprising that the team didn’t land a higher-profile arm this winter in an effort to bolster the starting staff. Perhaps the O’s are confident that an incumbent arm is on the cusp of a breakout, but right now Baltimore’s lineup looks more formidable than its rotation.

Orioles, Austin Voth Avoid Arbitration

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12:21pm: The Athletic’s Dan Connolly tweets that Voth agreed to a $1.85MM salary for the upcoming season, which was the midpoint between the $2MM sum at which he filed and the team’s $1.7MM. The option is valued at $2.45MM but can increase by as much as $500K based on performance incentives for the 2023 season.

11:30am: The Orioles announced Thursday that they’ve agreed to a one-year contract with right-hander Austin Voth. The deal, which avoids an arbitration hearing, also contains a club option for the 2024 season.

Claimed off waivers out of the Nationals organization on June 7, Voth immediately turned a corner with the O’s. The former fifth-round pick had long held potential and looked like a breakout candidate in D.C., but despite some brief glimpses of potential he was never able to establish himself as a consistent member of the Nats’ rotation or bullpen. Time will tell whether he’s able to do so in Baltimore, but he’s off to a good start.

In 83 innings following that waiver claim, Voth pitched to a sharp 3.04 ERA with a 20.7% strikeout rate, a strong 7.2% walk rate and a tidy 1.08 HR/9 mark. He’s unlikely to sustain an 82.4% left-on-base rate that’s 10 percentage points higher than league-average — only eight pitchers (min. 80 innings sustained a rate at that level in 2023) — but fielding-independent marks still peg him in the low-4.00 range.

Heading into 2023, the 30-year-old Voth could compete for a rotation spot in Baltimore. He started 17 games for the O’s after being acquired, and the team hasn’t done much to supplement its rotation this winter. The Orioles have effectively replaced Jordan Lyles with Kyle Gibson for the same cost, but there have been no further additions. Dean Kremer, Tyler Wells, Kyle Bradish, Bruce Zimmermann, Mike Baumann, Spenser Watkins and top prospects DL Hall and Grayson Rodriguez will all get consideration for innings this season — though the O’s are reportedly still exploring potential moves to bolster the starting staff.

Even if Voth doesn’t win a rotation spot this spring, he’ll be assured a spot in the bullpen. He’s now on a guaranteed salary for the upcoming season, and because he’s out of minor league options, he can’t be sent to the minors without first being exposed to waivers. Given how well he pitched after being claimed last time around, he’d surely be claimed if the O’s tried to pass him through waivers themselves.

The club option on the contract doesn’t extend Baltimore’s control over Voth. He was already controllable via arbitration for three seasons, so the option merely serves as a means of giving the club some possible cost certainty on his next arbitration salary. If the option is declined, he’d still be under team control, but the two sides would then go through the arb process all over again — or else Voth could simply be non-tendered. As things currently stand, he won’t qualify for free agency until after the 2025 campaign.

Requested Salary Figures For 33 Players Who Didn’t Reach Agreements By Arbitration-Filing Deadline

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January 13 was the deadline for teams and arbitration-eligible players to exchange salary figures in advance of possible hearings, and as usual, the large majority of players worked out one-year agreements (or extensions) for their 2023 salaries.  MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker detailed these agreements, though there is still quite a bit of unfinished business, as 33 players still don’t have their deals settled, and thus their 2023 salaries could be determined by an arbiter.

Typically, arb hearings take place in February or March, yet there isn’t anything officially preventing a team from still reaching an agreement with a player up until the moment an arbiter makes their ruling.  However, most clubs employ the “file and trial” strategy as a way of putting more pressure on players to accept agreements prior to the figure-exchange deadline.  In short, once the deadline passes, teams head to hearings with no more negotiation about a one-year salary, though clubs are typically still willing to discuss multi-year extensions.

Here are the 33 players who have yet to reach an agreement on their 2023 salaries, as well as the players’ requested salary and the team’s counter-offer.  As always, clubs (and the league as a whole) pay very close attention to arbitration salaries, since any outlier of a number can serve as a precedent in the future, thus raising the bar for both one particular players and perhaps players as a whole.  This is why teams are generally adamant about the “file and trial” tactic and taking the risk of a sometimes-awkward arb hearing, even in cases where there is a relatively small gap between the club’s figure and the player’s figure.

[RELATED: Arbitration projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz]

Nineteen of the 30 teams have at least one unsettled case remaining, with the Rays (by far) leading the way with seven players on pace to reach hearings.  Given that Tampa Bay entered the offseason with an enormous 19-player arbitration class, it perhaps isn’t surprising that the Rays still have a lot of work to do, even after trimming that initial class size with non-tenders and trades.  Teoscar Hernandez’s $16MM is the largest figure submitted by any of the 33 players, while Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette have the largest gap between submitted figures, each with a $2.5MM difference between their hoped-for salaries and the numbers respectively submitted by the Astros and Blue Jays.

The total list (which will be updated as settlements are reached and hearing results become known)….

Orioles Claim Austin Voth, Designate Cody Sedlock For Assignment

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June 10: The Orioles announced that Sedlock has cleared waivers and been outrighted to Triple-A Norfolk. He will remain in the organization but without occupying a roster spot.

June 7: The Orioles announced Tuesday that they’ve claimed righty Austin Voth off waivers from the Nationals and designated fellow right-hander Cody Sedlock for assignment in a corresponding roster move.

Voth, 30 later this month, was long one of the more promising arms in the Nationals’ system but has yet to find sustained success in the Majors either as a reliever or as a starter. He looked to have turned a corner back in 2019, when he posted a 3.30 ERA in 43 2/3 innings with a highly effective, high-spin curveball helping him to post strong strikeout and walk rates. But Voth’s entire arsenal took a step back during the shortened 2020 season, resulting in a 6.34 ERA over the life of 11 starts.

That proved to be Voth’s longest rotation audition in the Majors, as he was moved to the bullpen the following season but struggled through similarly poor results. He’s out of options, so the Nats carried him on the Opening Day roster in hopes of Voth at last righting the ship, but he was clobbered for 21 runs through 18 2/3 frames before the Nationals finally cut bait and designated him for assignment.

Voth still has excellent spin rate on his fastball and elite spin on his curveball, so the O’s are surely hoping that a change of scenery and some new voices can help him translate that into effective innings. He’s been plagued by a .455 batting average on balls in play this season, which is bound to regress to some extent, but Voth is also among the game’s most homer-prone pitchers and has been since that ill-fated 2020 season. A move to Camden Yards and, more broadly, the mostly hitter-friendly parks throughout the AL East, isn’t going to help in that regard — but perhaps the Orioles have a new game plan to help Voth keep the ball in the yard.

As for the 26-year-old Sedlock, he was the Orioles’ No. 2 prospect at Baseball America back in 2017 and their No. 7 prospect a year later. Viewed at the time as a potential mid-rotation arm or better, Sedlock has taken several steps back, primarily due to injuries. A forearm injury, shoulder injury and thoracic outlet surgery have combined to derail the former first-rounder’s career to this point.

Sedlock came to the O’s with a four-pitch mix and an ideal starter’s build (6’4″, 220 pounds), but he’s now posted an ERA north of 5.00 in three of his five professional seasons and has never reached 100 innings in a single season. As Keith Law of The Athletic points out (via Twitter), Sedlock’s injury-plagued career is a cautionary tale for the college pitchers who are regularly overworked; the right-hander tossed 132 pitches over a 10 2/3-inning start in his junior year at Illinois, Law notes, before going on to toss 113, 106, 115 and 120 pitches on short rest over his next several appearances.

The Orioles will have a week to trade Sedlock or attempt to pass him through outright waivers. Given his pedigree, it’s certainly possible another club will view him as a change-of-scenery candidate, but Sedlock averaged 91 mph on his fastball in a brief and unsuccessful MLB debut this year (five runs in three innings) — and he has a long list of arm injuries on his resume before even turning 27.

Nationals Select Jordan Weems, Designate Austin Voth

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The Nationals announced a series of roster moves this afternoon. Washington selected reliever Jordan Weems onto the big league roster, designating righty Austin Voth for assignment in a corresponding transaction. The Nats also optioned Andres Machado to Triple-A Rochester and recalled southpaw Francisco Pérez. Washington also announced that righty Aaron Sanchez has cleared outright waivers and elected minor league free agency.

Weems is headed to the majors for the third consecutive season. The right-hander broke into the big leagues with the A’s in 2020, then split last year between the Oakland and Diamondbacks organizations. He had some success during his debut campaign, posting a 3.21 ERA through 14 innings. Weems walked an alarming 12.1% of opponents, but he induced swinging strikes at a strong 13.1% clip and fanned more than three in every ten batters faced.

The following year proved a significantly greater struggle, however. Opposing lineups tagged the former third-round pick for ten runs in 5 2/3 innings, and he saw his swinging strike numbers dip precipitously. Arizona grabbed Weems off waivers from Oakland in July but outrighted him off their roster themselves a month later. He continued to struggle down the stretch in Triple-A and reached minor league free agency at the end of the season.

Washington brought the 29-year-old aboard via non-roster deal in Spring Training. Assigned to Rochester to open the season, he’s earned his way back with an excellent showing. Weems has a 3.38 ERA across 24 innings of relief for the Red Wings, showcasing the best underlying numbers of his career in the process. He’s punched out 33.7% of opposing hitters while walking batters at just a 5.3% rate — a marked improvement over his 11.4% career mark in the minors. Weems still has a pair of minor league option years remaining, so the Nats can rotate him on and off the active roster without exposing him to waivers if they’re willing to keep him on the 40-man roster.

Voth has pitched in the big leagues for Washington in each of the last five years. A former fifth-round draftee, he reached the majors midway through the 2018 campaign. He’s worked as a swing option in the seasons since then, starting fairly frequently through 2020 but transitioning primarily into a multi-inning relief role over the past two years. Voth had a nice showing in 2019, posting a 3.30 ERA with quality strikeout and walk numbers through 43 2/3 frames, but he’s struggled in the trio of seasons since then.

The right-hander was a consistent member of the rotation during the abbreviated 2020 season, but he allowed more than six earned runs per nine innings while dealing with significant home run issues. The longball has continued to be a problem even after Voth’s bullpen transfer. Going back to the start of 2021, he’s allowed 1.7 homers per nine. Along the way, he’s posted a 6.51 ERA through 76 frames. That includes a 10.13 mark this season, with Voth allowing multiple runs in each of his last five outings.

Those struggles mounted to the point that Washington decided to move on. The 29-year-old is out of options, so a DFA was the only means for taking him off the active roster. He’ll now be traded or waived in the coming week.

Voth has more than three years of MLB service time, so he’d have the right to refuse a minor league assignment if he clears waivers. That’d require forfeiting the remainder of his $875K salary, however, making it likelier he’d accept an outright to Rochester if another club doesn’t take a shot on him.

Sanchez, meanwhile, was designated for assignment over the weekend. The right-hander was hit hard over seven big league starts after signing a minor league deal during Spring Training. He’ll presumably head out in search of another non-roster pact elsewhere. Sanchez has more than five years of service, so he’ll collect the remainder of his prorated $2MM salary in spite of his refusal of the outright assignment. Any signing team would only owe him the prorated portion of the $700K league minimum for time spent in the majors the rest of the season.

Nationals Designate Javy Guerra For Assignment

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The Nationals are activating right-hander Austin Voth from the COVID-19 injured list, manager Dave Martinez told reporters (including Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post). Reliever Javy Guerra has been designated for assignment to open space on the active roster.

Washington has a vacancy on the 40-man roster, but Guerra couldn’t be optioned to the minors. Bumping him from the big league club required exposing him to waivers, and the veteran right-hander hasn’t shown well over six appearances this year. Guerra has been tagged for thirteen runs on twelve hits (including three homers) with three walks and four strikeouts over six innings. He now seems likely to wind up on the free agent market in the coming days. Guerra has enough major league service time to reject an outright assignment if he passes through waivers unclaimed.

Guerra has appeared in the big leagues in each of the past eleven seasons, logging time with the Nats in the last two-plus years. The 35-year-old has bounced around the league after breaking in as the Dodgers’ closer a decade ago and should find interest elsewhere via minor league deals.

Voth has been out of action for a little more than three weeks. He landed on the COVID-19 IL alongside Trea Turner, Daniel Hudson and Alex Avila in late July. Turner and Hudson have since been traded and activated to their new clubs’ rosters, while Avila remains on Washington’s injured list. Voth has worked almost exclusively in relief this season, posting a 4.81 ERA over 43 innings.

Nationals Place Daniel Hudson, Trea Turner On Covid IL

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The Nationals announced this morning that they’ve placed shortstop Trea Turner, right-hander Daniel Hudson, righty Austin Voth and catcher Alex Avila on the Covid-19-related injured list prior to today’s doubleheader. They’ve also reinstated catcher Yan Gomes and righty Tanner Rainey from the 10-day injured list in a pair of corresponding moves. Additionally, right-hander Andres Machado and infielder Luis Garcia were recalled from Triple-A Rochester.

Turner hitting the Covid IL was a foregone conclusion after he tested positive a couple days ago. It wasn’t yet clear which other players might need to be placed on the Covid-related list until today, however. To be clear, the Nationals did not reveal whether any of Hudson, Voth or Avila had tested positive or whether they were close contacts.

Turner and Hudson, notably, have emerged as a trade candidates as the Nationals’ recent slide in the standings has caused the team to pivot to sellers. Both players can still be traded while on the Covid-19 list, though their current status obviously complicates any potential discussions. A player who tests positive is subject to a minimum 10-day quarantine under MLB’s 2021 health and safety protocols; close contacts are subject to seven-day quarantines.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported yesterday that even in the wake of Turner’s positive test, he was still drawing interest (Twitter thread). At least two executives to whom Sherman spoke believed a trade involving Turner would still come together, though that’s still far from a given. Even prior to Tuesday’s positive test, Turner represented a difficult player to pry away. The All-Star shortstop is earning $13MM in 2021 and has another year of arbitration remaining, making him costly in terms of both salary and prospects. The Athletic’s Jim Bowden wrote this morning that a trade was unlikely, noting that several interested parties prefer to look at alternative options and wait until free agency this offseason to pursue one of the many high-end shortstops available in free agency (e.g. Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Javier Baez, Trevor Story).

As for Hudson, he’s an impending free agent who has somewhat quietly been having the best season of his 12-year big league career. The 34-year-old, who closed out the World Series for the Nationals in 2019, has pitched to a 2.20 ERA with a career-high 37.5 percent strikeout rate and a 5.5 percent walk rate that nearly matches his 5.4 percent career-low. He’s earning $6MM in 2021, and while Hudson doesn’t carry the name value of some more notable targets like Craig Kimbrel or even his own teammate, Brad Hand, he’s among the best relief options on the market.

Nationals Reinstate Starlin Castro, Outright Rogelio Armenteros

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The Nationals announced they’ve reinstated infielder Starlin Castro from the restricted list. Also returning to the active roster is right-hander Austin Voth, who’s been on the 10-day injured list due to a broken nose. Reliever Ryne Harper was optioned to Triple-A Rochester, while outfielder Andrew Stevenson has been placed on the 10-day IL, retroactive to June 17, with an oblique strain. Additionally, righty Rogelio Armenteros, who was designated for assignment earlier this week, has cleared waivers and been outrighted to Rochester.

Castro went on the restricted list earlier this week to attend a personal matter. He’ll return after a three-day absence. Castro, who has started 62 of the Nationals 65 games this season at third base, will return to his customary role at the hot corner. He’ll look to right the ship after a brutal start to the campaign. The 31-year-old has hit just .239/.287/.312 over 254 plate appearances, a far cry from his generally average offensive output the three seasons prior. Castro, who is in the final season of a two-year, $12MM contract with the fourth-place Nats, could be a potential trade candidate before the July 30 deadline, although he’ll need to substantially pick up his performance at the plate to attract much interest.

Voth returns after a minimal IL stint, a fortunate development given the scariness of his injury. The 28-year-old was struck in the face by a Vince Velasquez pitch during his first start of the season. Voth, who has otherwise spent the entire year working out of the bullpen, has pitched to a solid 2.73 ERA/3.70 SIERA in 29 2/3 innings.

The Nationals will keep Armenteros in the organization without devoting him a 40-man roster spot. Washington claimed the 26-year-old off waivers from the Diamondbacks last winter. Once a decently regarded prospect in the Houston system, Armenteros made his MLB debut with the Astros in 2019. He tossed 18 innings of 4.00 ERA/4.08 SIERA ball that year but missed last season with bone spurs in his elbow. The righty has spent all of 2021 in Rochester, struggling over seven starts. Through 29 1/3 Triple-A frames, Armenteros has managed just a 5.83 ERA while walking an uncharacteristically high 14.2% of opposing hitters. He’ll stick around with the Red Wings and look to pitch his way back onto the 40-man roster at some point this year.

NL Injury Notes: Voth, Naquin, Molina, Mets

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Nationals pitcher Austin Voth suffered a broken nose after being hit in the face by a Vince Velasquez pitch.  In the third inning of today’s 12-6 Nats loss to the Phillies, Voth squared to bunt but couldn’t avoid Velasquez’s off-target fastball in time.  Voth did walk off the field under his own power, and Washington manager Davey Martinez told reporters (including Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com) that the right-hander would have his nose reset tonight.

Today was Voth’s first official start of the season, though it was intended as something of a glorified opener/piggyback outing since Voth has worked out of the bullpen all season.  After inconsistent results as a starter over his first three seasons, Voth has delivered strong bottom-line results in the form of a 2.73 ERA over 29 2/3 innings in his multi-inning reliever role, though advanced metrics (like a 92.3% strand rate and a .239 BABIP) indicate some good fortune.

Martinez also related the incident to the league’s efforts to crack down on pitchers’ use of foreign substances on the ball, saying that “you’ll see more [hit by pitches] if we keep messing around with the stuff about the balls.  I understand them trying to clean some stuff up.  But it’s hot, it’s slippery, it’s sweaty.  I know Velasquez didn’t throw in there intentionally, but I’m afraid that if we don’t come up with something unified for everybody, you’ll see a lot more of that.  And that’s a scary feeling.”

More injury updates from the Senior Circuit…

  • Tyler Naquin left Sunday’s 8-7 Reds victory over the Cardinals due to left hamstring tightness.  Naquin took something of an awkward slide into second base in the first inning, and was replaced by a pinch-hitter for his next plate appearance in the top of the third.  Naquin has cooled down after a scorching-hot opening month of the season, but the outfielder still has an impressive .257/.333/.509 slash line and 11 homers over 189 plate appearances while emerging as Cincinnati’s everyday center fielder.  Reds manager David Bell told MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon and other reporters that the removal was precautionary in nature, and Naquin could be back as early as Tuesday for the Reds’ next game.
  • Yadier Molina left yesterday’s game after taking a foul tip off his kneecap, and the veteran catcher wasn’t in today’s Cardinals lineup.  However, manager Mike Shildt told reporters (including Stu Durando of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch) that “it looks like a little-bit-of-rest situation” and that Molina might have been able to play today in the event of an emergency.  The Cards have off-days both tomorrow and Thursday, so Molina might not miss much time even if he does need more than a day to recover.
  • There isn’t much new progress with the status of either Brandon Nimmo or J.D. Davis, as neither Mets regular seems close to a return.  As Mets manager Luis Rojas told The New York Daily News’ Deesha Thosar and other reporters, Nimmo is taking swings but not off a tee or against actual pitches, as he continues to recover from a nerve problem in his left index finger.  Davis isn’t swinging whatsoever, as his sprained left hand will be in a splint for the next few days.  Jonathan Villar is battling a tight hamstring and wasn’t in today’s starting lineup, as Rojas said the team is being cautious with Villar after he was able to come off the bench on both Friday and Saturday.

Erick Fedde No Longer Has Fourth Option

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An arbiter has ruled that Nationals right-hander Erick Fedde does not have a fourth minor league option season, reports Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (Twitter link). That means that Fedde, a former first-round pick, is now out of minor league options and thus cannot be sent to Triple-A without first being exposed to waivers.

As MASNsports.com’s Mark Zuckerman outlined in February 2020, the Nationals were granted a fourth option over Fedde for the 2020 season because the league’s rules stipulate that such an option be granted when a player has exhausted all three minor league options despite not completing five “full” seasons (between the Majors and Minors combined).

A “full” season, under those terms, entails 90 or more days on an active roster, be it a big league or minor league roster. Time on the injured list does not count toward that definition. As such, Fedde’s 2015 season — what would’ve been his first “full” season after being drafted 18th overall in 2014 — did not count because he was recovering from Tommy John surgery for much of the year and did not accrue the requisite 90 days. Heading into the 2020 season, he’d played four “full” seasons but expended all of his options. A fourth option was granted to the Nats.

The Nationals didn’t use that option last year on Fedde, keeping him at the MLB level all season. The confusion surrounding Fedde, and others, was whether last year’s shortened schedule constituted a “full” season. It was fewer than 90 days in length, but service time and salary were prorated, so it could be argued that time on the roster for the purposes of determining minor league option eligibility should be treated similarly. Fedde and agent Scott Boras likely appealed that because he spent the 2020 season on the roster for the maximum time possible (67 days), he now has five “full” seasons under his belt, voiding the fourth option.

It’s a notable development for the Nationals’ pitching staff. Fedde had previously looked to be a potential odd man out behind fellow righties Joe Ross, the likely fifth starter, and Austin Voth, who’ll likely open the year in the ’pen. Both Ross and Voth had a leg up in the competition by virtue of the fact that they were out of minor league options, but Fedde is now in a similar position and thus much more likely to make the Opening Day roster.

There’s room for the Nats to carry all three hurlers, but the sudden lack of an option for Fedde would deprive them of some bullpen flexibility. Brad Hand, Tanner Rainey and Daniel Hudson obviously aren’t going anywhere at the back of the ’pen, and Wander Suero seems to be on solid ground as well. Voth is quite likely penciled into a long relief spot because of his own lack of options. Adding Fedde to that mix could make it tougher for a non-roster hopeful like Javy Guerra, Luis Avilan or T.J. McFarland to crack the roster. It’s also not great news for 40-man relievers like Kyle Finnegan and Ryne Harper, each of whom does have minor league options remaining.

Earlier this spring it came to light that several players were awaiting word on whether they do or do not have a fourth minor league option. The Cardinals’ Justin Williams, the Cubs’ Adbert Alzolay and the Angels’ Jaime Barria were among the many players who are currently in this state of limbo. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch tweeted earlier this afternoon that some from that group have been informed that they are indeed out of options, so it seems Fedde is the first known player among that bunch.

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