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Reviewing Largest Expiring Contracts: Hitters

By Connor Byrne | October 2, 2019 at 8:25pm CDT

We’re less than a week removed from analyzing how the five largest expiring contracts on the pitching side have panned out. We’ll do the same here with five big-money hitters who are scheduled to reach free agency in about a month. Notable omission: Red Sox designated hitter/outfielder J.D. Martinez, who’s far from a sure thing to opt out of the three years and $62.5MM that remain on his contract.

Ryan Zimmerman, 1B, Nationals (six years, $100MM, including $2MM buyout for 2020 and $10MM personal services contract that begins when career ends)
Total fWAR: 5.2
Dollar value of contributions (per FanGraphs): $41.7MM

  • The Nationals made the decision in 2012 to extend Zimmerman, then a star third baseman, though the contract didn’t kick in until 2014. Aside from a resurgent 2017, Zimmerman hasn’t been particularly valuable since Washington awarded him his lucrative accord. Injuries have been a consistent problem for Zimmerman along the way, including during a 190-plate appearance 2019 in which the 35-year-old mustered a less-than-stellar .257/.321/.415 line with six home runs. Those type of numbers don’t really play anywhere, especially at first base – which has become Zimmerman’s lone position. He hasn’t lined up at the hot corner since the first season of his deal. Once their season ends, the Nats will buy Zimmerman out for $2MM in lieu of bringing him back for an unpalatable $18MM.

Russell Martin, C, Dodgers (five years, $82MM)
Total fWAR: 12.5
Dollar value of contributions: $99.6MM

  • As a free agent in November 2014, Martin returned to his native Canada on an expensive contract with the Blue Jays. It worked out beautifully for the Jays during the first few years, but the rebuilding club elected to send Martin and the majority of the money left on his deal to the Dodgers – with whom he began his career – last January. The well-respected 36-year-old has remained a useful player in 2019, though he’s no longer the starting-caliber catcher he has been for most of his career. Martin, who has taken a backseat to Dodgers rookie Will Smith, has hit .220/.337/.330 with six HRs in 249 PA on the offensive side. Defensively, Martin’s still an above-average option, according to Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average metric.

Alex Gordon, LF, Royals (four years, $72MM, including $4MM buyout for 2020)
Total fWAR: 3.3
Dollar value of contributions: $26.3MM

  • Gordon’s contract, which still stands as the largest the Royals have ever given out, hasn’t provided the on-field value KC was hoping for when it re-signed him off a World Series-winning campaign. Gordon remains an immensely respected figure with the franchise, though, and if the soon-to-be 36-year-old decides to continue his career in 2020, it appears the Royals will welcome him back. First things first, the club will decline its half of a $23MM mutual option in favor of a $4MM buyout, meaning Gordon will have to sign a new, much cheaper contract should he play next season.

Jose Abreu, 1B/DH, White Sox (six years, $68MM)
Total fWAR: 17.9
Dollar value of contributions: $141.5MM

  • Abreu’s the sole player on this list who’s setting up to make out well on his next deal, thanks in part to a late-season surge. The 32-year-old could even get a qualifying offer before hitting free agency, though he and the White Sox probably hope it doesn’t come to that. Both sides have publicly gushed over one another on several occasions, so it wouldn’t be remotely surprising to see the White Sox and Abreu shake hands on a fresh deal sometime in the next few weeks. Regardless, the franchise-record contract the White Sox gave Abreu as a Cuban emigree in 2013 has provided tons of surplus value for the team.

Starlin Castro, 2B, Marlins (seven years, $60MM, including $1MM buyout for 2020)
Total fWAR: 10.6
Dollar value of contributiions: $83.4MM

  • Plenty has changed for Castro since he landed his contract as an up-and-coming player in 2012. For one, he was a shortstop at that point – a player the Cubs thought would be a long-term building block. But Castro was inconsistent from 2013-15, the first three years of his deal, leading the Cubs to trade him to the Yankees. Castro’s so-so production continued in New York from 2016-17, after which the Yankees offloaded him to the Marlins in a salary-dumping move that made it easier for the Bronx Bombers to take on Giancarlo Stanton’s massive contract. The now-second baseman has essentially been the same player in Miami, a notoriously low-budget outfit that will buy him out for $1MM this offseason instead of exercising its $16MM option over him for 2020. Set to turn 30 in March, Castro will venture to the market on the heels of a 1.3-fWAR season in which he batted .270/.300/.436 and smacked 22 homers over 676 PA.
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View Comments (17)
Post a Comment

17 Comments

  1. Dodger Dog

    6 years ago

    You forgot Matt Kemp

    Reply
    • Drew Waters Bat

      6 years ago

      Did they?

      1
      Reply
    • mlb1225

      6 years ago

      If he wasn’t released, he would probably be on this list.

      Reply
      • tylerall5

        6 years ago

        His contract is still technically active though.

        1
        Reply
  2. snotrocket

    6 years ago

    No Sandoval?

    Reply
  3. Deleted Userrrrr

    6 years ago

    White Sox should have either traded or extended Abreu by the deadline. Or just traded him in the first place when they sold off Sale, Quintana and Eaton. There was no benefit to having him on the team the past 3 years.

    Reply
    • Priggs89

      6 years ago

      Yup. No benefit at all. Great point.

      1
      Reply
      • Deleted Userrrrr

        6 years ago

        Thanks buddy

        Reply
    • Megatron2005

      6 years ago

      Moncada and Eloy would disagree with that. Also Luis Robert signed with the Sox thanks to Abreu. There’s more to baseball than on field performance.

      Reply
      • Deleted Userrrrr

        6 years ago

        @Megatron2005 How does Abreu have anything to do with Moncada and Eloy?

        And I’m going to need to see a credible source that says Luis Robert signed with the Sox because of Abreu and not just because they offered him the most $ or whatever.

        If not trading Abreu was so helpful for them in ways not shown on the field, then wouldn’t trading Sale, Quintana and Eaton have been equally as damaging in those ways if not more so?

        Reply
  4. Melchez

    6 years ago

    Castro might be a good get for a young Tiger infield… He has always done well against lefty pitchers and this year was one of his best. He’s had some solid defense too, so he could always be a defensive replacement late in a game too.
    Vs LHP .297/ 344/ .434 career
    Vs LHP ..323/ .351/ 530 2019

    Harold Castro bats left and Starlin batting right. Harold can also play 3rd and OF.

    Reply
    • RiseAgainst3598

      6 years ago

      So like… is part of the reasoning for this that they can play a whole infield of Castro’s? Harold at 3B, Willi at SS, Starlin at 2B, and sign Fidel when he defects from Cuba to play 1B?

      1
      Reply
    • NoviScott

      6 years ago

      I was thinking that too. I would be interested in researching if he has been a good fit in the clubhouse.
      When I was reading the write up- I couldn’t help thinking that a team will look at his decent (end of year) stays in 2019 and give him a nice multi year deal. Thus would out bid the Tigers immediately.

      Reply
  5. StandUpGuy

    6 years ago

    I know it was only a 1 year deal but I was a little surprised Josh Donaldson didn’t make the list. His AAV is almost triple what Castro’s is. Kemp and Sandoval should have made the list too but I guess they weren’t consisering players that were released from their contracts. Sandoval is playing under a totally separate contract from the one Boston gave him and Matt Kemp is no longer contractually obligated to anything at all. Though he seems to believe that the Twinkies company is endorsing him to eat at least 3 boxes a day.

    Reply
  6. Dodger Dog

    6 years ago

    Ryan Braun too

    Reply
    • batty

      6 years ago

      Braun’s contract runs through 2020 with a mutual option for 2021.

      Reply
  7. douglasb

    6 years ago

    I wonder about Starlin Castro. I mean, some club will probably offer him a starting 2b job, but would you be excited bringing him in? You are looking at a 1-3 WAR player who could still hang onto that level for a while.

    I feel like he’s a Bill Buckner of this generation. We’ll look back and wonder how he got to 2,700 hits.

    Reply

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