The Mets have begun the offseason in a bit of a bind in their rotation. On one hand, they have a 1-4 most teams would gladly sign up for in Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Marcus Stroman and Steven Matz. On the other, they’re facing the loss of Zack Wheeler – undoubtedly one of the best free agents available – and find themselves lacking answers at the back of their starting staff.
Considering the Mets play in a massive market, they should theoretically have the money to re-sign Wheeler and/or acquire some other pricey starter. But the Mets don’t behave like a team with a near-endless supply of money, and as MLBTR’s Jeff Todd explained a couple weeks ago, paying for improvements looks as if it will be a challenge for the club this offseason. The Mets have never started a season with a $160MM-plus payroll, yet they already appear to be above that figure right now without having made a single offseason improvement. Barring a significant spike in payroll, then, it’s doubtful the Mets will be serious players for Wheeler or any other starters who are remotely close to the top of the market.
Thanks in part to their payroll problems, the Mets seem to be making in-house contingency plans for the back of their starting staff. When introducing new manager Carlos Beltran on Monday, GM Brodie Van Wagenen told reporters including Tim Britton of The Athletic (subscription link) that the Mets are considering deploying Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo as starters in 2020. The two “are preparing this offseason with the expectations that they may well enter the rotation,” according to Van Wagenen.
Gsellman and Lugo were starters as prospects who frequented the Mets’ rotation a few years back, but they’ve settled into relief roles in recent years. Still just 26 years old, Gsellman thrived as a starter during a brief debut in 2016, but his bubble burst the next season. Since then, all 120 of Gsellman’s appearances have come as a reliever. He amassed 63 2/3 innings over 52 appearances this year and logged a 4.66 ERA/4.13 FIP with 8.48 K/9 and 3.25 BB/9. Those aren’t great numbers, though Gsellman did average a career-high 95.4 mph on his fastball and 90.6 mph on his slider. He also ranked near the top of the majors in curveball spin (83rd percentile), hard-hit rate against (88th percentile) and average exit velocity against (85.3 mph; 96th percentile), among other Statcast metrics.
Gsellman’s more traditional production hasn’t been dominant, whereas Lugo has been lights-out since moving to the bullpen on essentially a full-time basis in 2018. The soon-to-be 30-year-old pitched to a matching 2.70 ERA/FIP with outstanding strikeout and walk rates (11.7 K/9, 1.8 BB/9) in 61 appearances and 80 innings this season. Like Gsellman, Lugo’s fastball (94.4 mph) and slider (88.1 mph) clocked in at personal highs, and he was another Statcast favorite. Amazingly, Lugo’s curve spin ranked in the game’s 100th percentile, while his expected weighted on-base average against (.234, compared to a real .237 wOBA against) placed in the 99th percentile.
To varying extents, Gsellman and Lugo have clearly been assets for New York’s bullpen. Whether that would carry into the team’s starting five if necessary remains to be seen. However, moving one or both into the rotation may just create another hole for the club. The Mets’ bullpen, after all, was a consistent issue throughout this year and looks like an area they’ll somehow have to address as a result. That already looks as if it will be difficult when considering what seems like a lack of financial wiggle room for the team, and that’s with Gsellman and Lugo penciled in to remain part of the late-game setup.
The Mets are in a good spot with deGrom, Syndergaard, Stroman and Matz, though there’s little in the way of solutions or depth otherwise. That helps explain why Van Wagenen claimed lefty Stephen Gonsalves, a former top 100 prospect, from the Twins on Monday. Gonsalves could end up as one of at least a few low-cost hurlers the Mets pick up this offseason as they look for back-of-the-rotation help. But if no one they bring in pans out, perhaps Gsellman or Lugo will slot back into a starting role.
Gsellman as a 5th starter could be fine. He’s more of a swing guy in the pen anyway and can be more easily replaced. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them take on a Gio Gonzalez or Tanner Roark type to round it out.
He’s not Fine as a starter. For Mets fans he is perfect. By June the poor guy will be in the tabloids explaining that he Hadn’t Started
Since Little League!
Solid team all around but wonder what needs to happen for them to catch the Braves or the Nationals?
Sorcery
Change in manager was a good start.
That remains to be seen. Beltran is a first-year manager. Things could get worse. The team seemed to really rally and mesh in the second half. They may have to find themselves all over agaain with a new manager. I think they’ll be just fine, but you never know.
Everything depends on who they put around Carlos Beltran. Experienced coaches will make a huge difference in first-year manager’s success or failure
Changing ownership is the only real solutionZ
Only a miracle and a half.
What is needed to catch them? The bullpen cost the Mets about 15 games. Cano cost them about 6 games while he was batting third the entire 1st half. The Mets really do need a true every day productive right handed hitting outfielder. Conforto, McNeil and Nimmo all hit from the left side. JD Davis probably slides over to third base unless they add another right handed infielder or get anything productive from Lowery, which isn’t likely after missing a full season at his age.
Rather than move Gsellman back into the rotation, I’d like to see the Mets schedule his 5th day rotation the same day Matz pitches. Run him out there for the last three or 4 innings on those days and give everyone else a day off. He could then be available for one inning on his scheduled “throwing” day.
They need to straighten out Syndergaard’s Head. He’s turning into another Harvey. Can’t let him dictate to the manager who he throws to which severely weakens the batting lineup. Here’s an idea for Syndergaard: try learning to hold a runner on 1st base!
Bat Cano 7th or 8th, I don’t care what he makes. He is now one of the least productive hitters in the majors.
Turn Rosario loose on the bases. I’d like to see him attempt 50 this year.
Refocus on pitchers bunting skills. They were horrible last year.
We need some blue collar guys on the bench that know how do things right late in games. Scrappers who try to hit home runs on every swing.
Two SP. one younger who can swing (similar to Gsellman) and one who will give you 200 innings of quality work who isn’t looking into the dugout at 90 pitches.
Two proven transition relievers. Mets need to quit “taking chances” on pitchers. Get the guy all the teams want, not the guy who is left after all the others are gone.
Trade Nimmo while his value is up. I really like the kid, but he has too many holes in his swing. Get a righty OF bat and take on a pitchers’ contract.
Get Beltran an experienced bench coach. How about their minor league coach that every has been saying deserves the job? Groom him, he already knows all the younger players…
Lock up Chili Davis for three years.
That’s what they need, in my opinion, to win the East.
No real arguments with all you said although I wouldn’t be too quick with Nimmo. My one problem is what you didn’t mention. DEFENSE. a good portion of the pitching woes relate back to ground balls through the infield or through and off their gloves. Do you remember the day Rosario dove and Actually caught the ball. Cano stood there and clapped for him as if to say “at last”. They need to build a wall between first and second for Alonso to run into till he understands there is a body playing second base. I too want Davis at third but he better be spending the winter taking ground balls. Beside a lack of run support DeGrom has lost his fair share of games due to unearned runs.
Can’t argue with anything stated in regard to defensive needs. I do think Rosario has gotten a bad rap and the kid never hangs his head or complains. Outside of deGrom, I felt much of the defensive issues were a result of pitchers missing targets and players then out of position. Frazier was solid, Rosario made a few mistakes, Cano was just bad and Alonso was a little too aggressive trying to get to everything, especially with Cano’s lack of range.
I think Davis showed enough of a skill set that, given all spring training to focus on 3b, he will be fine. If the Mets add a 3b regular (or move McNeil back to 3b), I think Davis will greatly benefit from having all ST to work on LF mechanics and positioning.
Will the Mets go after a shortstop and commit to Rosario in CF this spring? Add Gregorius trade Rosario/Nimmo and ? to the Indians for Lindor? Not sure, but it’s possible.
Maybe move McNeil back to 3b and add a right handed corner outfielder? That’s logical.
I highly doubt Lowrie is anything more than the 26th man.
The bottom line is that if the Mets don’t defensively have 3 out of 4 every day outfielders learning as they go (Davis, Smith and McNeil), better positioning in the dirt and Alonso and Rosario keep working hard with good coaching, I have no doubt the defense will improve.
Hey Jim-Cano will not put up with your ideas. He’s an all star and future HOF and will vat third for his entire career.
Tough luck. No DH relief coming soon as well.
Brody BIG shot was hoping for a song and a prayer. Too bad.
4 more years of continued decreasing contributions with a porous defense.
Cano hates wearing a glove.
>> Rather than move Gsellman back into the rotation, I’d like to see the Mets schedule his 5th day rotation the same day Matz pitches. Run him out there for the last three or 4 innings on those days and give everyone else a day off. He could then be available for one inning on his scheduled “throwing” day.
This would complicate things for the bullpen even more than moving him into the rotation. If he has to pitch every 5th day in line with Matz then you are pitching one man short in the pen for the rest of the time AND you still need to find a starter for the 5th spot in the rotation.
>> Bat Cano 7th or 8th, I don’t care what he makes. He is now one of the least productive hitters in the majors.
6th maybe but Cano was a lot more productive in the second half once healthy. he slashed .240/.287/.360 in the first half (while hurt) and .284/.339/541 with 9 HRs in 148 ABs which projects a lot better than an 8th hole hitter.
>> Turn Rosario loose on the bases. I’d like to see him attempt 50 this year.
I question him as a pure speedster who can steal 50 bags in a season without getting thrown out 25-30 times. At that point, you may be running yourself out of potentially big innings. You do not need that. It also leads to the SP leading off innings which you do not want. If you are saying to move him to leadoff, I disagree. This team needs OBP focused hitters like McNeil to bat leadoff.
>> Refocus on pitchers bunting skills. They were horrible last year.
This is a skill disappearing from the game. Period. While, I agree it needs to be improved. We will see it less and less in this analytics age.
>> Two proven transition relievers. Mets need to quit “taking chances” on pitchers. Get the guy all the teams want, not the guy who is left after all the others are gone.
So forget the cap? Yes, the Mets are a big market. Yes, we fans often feel like they make deals like a small market team. How about just being smart about investments? If someone says, “It’s the Mets,” I point to the Dodgers and now the Red Sox who realized they need to demonstrate more fiscal responsibility. They each hired FO personnel from Tampa because TB continually demonstrates the ability to build competitive teams without employing free spending.
>> Trade Nimmo while his value is up. I really like the kid, but he has too many holes in his swing. Get a righty OF bat and take on a pitchers’ contract.
Nimmo’s value was higher coming off of 2018 than it is now. We won’t get proper value for him this off-season in a 1-for-1 deal.
Maybe Peterson could challenge for a spot in the spring?
I couldn’t find a 2019 mlbtr “offseason outlook” for the Mets. Send the link pls.
But I think the move for them should be Rendon. They have contracts that can maybe be moved to subsidize the cost, if that’s even a big issue so long as they stay under the luxury tax. They’ll only have to pay Cespedes half of his actual salary with insurance covering the rest which creates some/more balance for ownership to justify the additional gross expense.
Of course, no idea what a relationship between BVW and Boras looks like so maybe it’s a non starter.
Starters are fine though. Maybe need mlb level depth. As a Jays fan I think the Mets are in for a treat next year with Stro as your 3rd guy out. That’s where he will do the most damage and if all goes well for them he has postseason experience to bring to the table.
Right now, they have no major league quality starters beyond the front 4.
They also have no major league quality owners that’d consider shelling out that kinda dough.
Doesn’t Cespedes prove otherwise? They shelled out the cash for him and it helped get them to a World Series. Plus, Brodie is sort of a nut. I can see them making a big signing just for the headlines.
Who DOES have major league league starters beyond the front four? Honestly, I think the Mets need someone ‘like’ Hamels, a veteran who can bump everyone
…bump everyone back one spot, I meant. How awesome would it be if this rotation was deGrom, a new #2, then Syndergaard, Stroman and Matz with Lugo and Gsellman able to each go multiple innings?
Why would you waste your time with such a post when you know the NY Mess would never open the checkbook for Rendon especially while they are still paying Cespedas.
With Cespedas on the books this year there will be no high priced free agent signing but next year I expect them to go after Betts.
Would not be suprised to see both Lugo & Gsellman in the rotation and Thor traded for a couple young bullpen arms, a SP prospect & a true CF.
In for a treat is for sure, wait until Stro starts to demand contract talks about an extention and you see what he thinks he is worth or if the mets take him to arbitration and he loses again LOL Twitter will explode! Ya all will see why the Jays were in such a hurry to unload him!!
They have not done a Mets outlook yet, or atleast have not posted it, i have been waiting for the Jays outlook too. There is a list you can check if you happen to miss the post, i bookmarked it, you should be able to find it by scolling the home page articles
Hahaha. Are you suggesting the Mets shell out 25 mill a year for the next 6 years or so for Rendon. Pretty funny. Aside from that isn’t Brodie on record as saying he would solve 3b from in house. Mcneil comes to mind. If you knew the Mets inner workings they are already in a position where management is unhappy with the size of their payroll. They only reason its this high is last year they got 24 mill back in Cano trade and didn’t have to pay the bulk of Cespedes and Wright deals because of insurance. That money is drying up.The Mets will sign no big ticket items period.
Take a hike.
I think it would be silly to take Lugo out of the bullpen after what he’s done the past two seasons. It makes a lot more sense to try moving Gsellman back.
Agree 100%.
Might be more efficient to stretch Lugo out to revert back to a starter and replace the bullpen position as opposed to filling the open starter spot with anything less than Wheeler on the open market. They could still leave Lugo where he is if things don’t pan out starting thru ST.
Analysts love Gsellman’s ‘stuff’, but I think Mets have had to push him beyond his limits. He is at his best when he is the first arm out of the bullpen. He is really good one time through the lineup, getting out of a jam or stretching the game to the 8th. Lugo has really developed (mentally) into a solid set up man who has the ability and toughness to close.
Adding a really good second lefty with the additional roster spot is a must.
So that leaves Diaz as the wild card. If he gets straightened out that solves nearly every bullpen issue. If not, well, that’s just going to be embarrassing for this coaching staff.
Should put the money up and go after Madbum
Why not just keep Wheeler if that’s the move?
Wheeler may not want to come back. The Mets made a qualifying offer, so at least they’re saying they’re willing to pay close to $20M for a SP, even with the payroll around $160M.
As for Madbum, I think he’ll play down south and closer to home.
I like the way you think Al Hirschen !
I rarely point out negative things about a post but the title missed the mark for me. I realize the article points out the strength of the four that they have but calling the Mets in a rotation bind with Wheeler hitting free agency is way overstating the case. I don’t think nearly as high of Wheeler as writers seem to but even if I did a upper tier starter is not a big need you have a one and two in the rotation and more. That’s not a bind. The Mets are solid but have bigger needs. Offer QO and let him walk. Allocate those funds elsewhere. Fill rotation with less expensive free agent, trade, or in house(not familiar with their farm system and options there ). They aren’t in a bind in their position of strength
If you could ever convince the owners, Mets included, to stop thinking like accountants and realize they actually can afford to spend above the luxury tax without going to hell or going broke. Then you would see some real competition. Until then they will act like the luxury tax is a cap. I say this accountant mentality is ruining the game.
Lugo would be a nasty starter with all the tools he has to choose from, but he’s so lights-out coming out of the pen… I wouldn’t do it. Plus, he has a partially torn ligament in his elbow. Might not be a good idea to push on it?
You think the Mets are scared of the cap and thats why they don’t spend. The Mets never get anywhere close to the cap. Heck they ended the year last year at 160 mill (far and away the highest its ever been) and thats over 40 mill below the cap’ Get real with your comments. The Mets set there own cap and its 40 or 50 mill below the actual cap. Playing in NY that is an embarrassment
Stro does not have post season experience
When was that
He pitched i believe 19 innings in the 2015 playoffs and had 11 innings in the 2016 playoffs
He’s been bad in the postseason. In two years he had a 4.40 era and both years he was bad
Solve two problems at once by trading with the Giants for Cueto and Tony Watson. Both help the Mets next season and Giants need to start rebuilding.
Trade who?
It all starts with starting pitching. Nats GM (Rizzo) repeated that mantra several times after winning the WS. If healthy, always a concern with the Mets, Their top four as they stand now can match anyone’s in the NL East.
And I’d leave Lugo in the pen. Mets just might need him to be their closer. There are a bunch of decent guys who could fill the #5 starter’s spot if Wheeler says no to the QO (He most likely will.). Not sold on Gsellman. Phillies released Jerad Eickhoff. He’d be a nice low-cost signing.
I like the offense. What Brody needs to do is find an everyday catcher (Grandal?) and a solid lefty bullpen arm. If they can’t sign Grandal, I’d trade for Tucker Barnhardt. He’s a solid defender and not an automatic out. Besides, with the current offense, Mets don’t need their catcher to hit very much. Just bring the glove and his game calling skills.
Lugo does not want to be in the pen. Logically, the Mets would leave him there, but if he demands to start or be traded what can you do?
You give him a shot if there’s an opening.
I have a unique idea, RESIGN ZACK WHEELER. Simple.
The Mets have a little over $92M coming off the books after 2020. Of course some of that needs to be retained for departing players, but they need to be smart how they use that wiggle room this year. You’ll see a lot of multiple year contracts with them back loaded in 2021. Also have to remember that Cespedes and Wright have insurance on their contracts. It’s about $43M for the two of them this year and they’ll get back about $33M of that. Wouldn’t be shocked if the Mets have an opening day payroll around $190M because of this.
Brandon are you a Mets fan? If you are and know their history how can you believe they’ll have a payroll of 190 mill this year.Last year they had 24 mill coming back on Cano trade, No such money coming back this year. Also the amount they will get back in insurance money will decrease because of the lessening of Wrights salary .What would make you think,given that that the Mets will explode their payroll 30 mill higher then its ever been. This is the Mets one of the cheapest teams in baseball
The Mets really need to get their bullpen together. A couple more position players who can provide offense would help as well. They are not that far away. Wheeler would help but he’s not the answer.
Lugo might work at starter. However, this significantly weakens an already bad bullpen. Gsellman should not only NOT be considered to be a starter he shouldn’t even be in the bullpen. His ERA was almost 5?! On what planet is that considered good?
The Mets should spend $10mil on a plethora of random projects and has-beens for the ‘pen. Just throw spaghetti against the wall. Let some compete and others sharpen up in the minors. Relief pitching as a whole is a crapshoot.
This is exactly what they have been doing and have, like every other team, failed trying to fill needs with players who routinely fail to fill that need with their former teams.
Outside of deGrom and Lugo, what pitchers have actually gotten better the past 3 years under the Mets coaching staff’s eye?
I like McNeil leading off (on base percentage) and rather see Conforto hit 2nd to utilize the hole when McNeil is on base, THEN Alonso. Now they need protection for Alonso from a new addition at either 3b or RF, then Davis in the 5 hole followed by Ramos (6), Rosario (7) and Cano 8th. That’s quite a bit of offense there, and that’s not including Nimmo who I think should be the 4th outfielder.
Have they really though? Again, the ‘pen is a crapshoot. Additionally, the alternative to throwing spaghetti against the wall is the albatross baggage we have in Diaz (re: taking on Cano’s contract). I just think that if you spend $10mil-$20mil on random arms, it’s better than paying big dollars for a recognized name in a very tumultuous position(s). I love our line-up, I love our youth. What scares me is ownership sacrificing long-term success for short-term savings. I’ve read rumors of JD Davis being potentially traded for arms. As far as I’m concerned, there isn’t a single young player who’s tradable save for D Smith. I also read D Smith and Conforto for Betts. I’d be okay with that too. But offloading young talent for a need that’s fillable through free agency should be nom-negotiable. The Mets have an “amazing” core at every facet of the game in my opinion.
Davis isn’t going anywhere. We will hear about Betts all winter but nothing will ever materialize. Dominic Smith is without a position so he’s tradable but you’re not going to get his value with although productive, minimal playing time. We were forced to stand pat with a lot this yr like Diaz and Familia. Familia signed for few more years and Diaz obviously has the talent. Be foolish to give up and get crap for him now. Work with him intensitivly this spring. C’mon let’s be positive!
The harder hole to fill this offseason will be the bullpen. Plenty of starters available at many price points. Absolutely leave Lugo, maybe consider Gman but likely pen.