The Rockies are coming off a 71-win season, and even the most optimistic observer would be hard-pressed to expect a major bounce-back effort in 2020. Not only are the Rockies stuck in a division with the juggernaut Dodgers, who figure to rule the NL West yet again next year, but the Rox seemingly aren’t in position to spend their way out of the hole they’ve dug for themselves. Rockies owner Dick Monfort has said the team lacks payroll flexibility, which suggests it won’t be in for an offseason of headline-worthy acquisitions.
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The Rockies opened this year with a franchise record $145MM-plus in payroll, and they’re already in line for a 2020 outlay in the $160MM range, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource and FanGraphs. At least a small portion of that is slated to belong to right-hander Jon Gray, who MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects will make $5.6MM via arbitration next season. However, considering next year will be Gray’s penultimate season of control, now may be as good a time as any for Colorado to trade him.
Gray, who turned 28 earlier this week, has endured his share of ups and downs since he joined the Rockies as the third overall pick in 2013. His results have alternated between very good (especially for someone stuck pitching half his games in hitter-friendly Colorado) and unspectacular, with Gray’s output this year falling in line more with the first category. He racked up 150 innings of 3.84 ERA/4.06 FIP ball with 9.0 K/9, 3.36 BB/9 and a personal-best 50.4 percent groundball rate. Along the way, Gray posted a career-high 96.1 average mph on his fastball, which ranked in the majors’ 89th percentile, per Statcast.
Aside from his velocity, Gray wasn’t any kind of Statcast hero in 2019, as he finished toward the bottom of the league in most of its key categories. Nevertheless, Gray’s most recent production, his career numbers (4.46 ERA/3.77 FIP with 9.4 K/9, 2.96 BB/9 and a 47.1 percent grounder rate) and his affordability over the next couple years would likely lead to plenty of interest if the Rockies were to place him on the trading block.
With few possible exceptions (Corey Kluber? Matthew Boyd? Chris Archer? Jose Quintana?), this offseason’s class of starters who might be attainable via trade doesn’t look as if it’ll be teeming with front-line potential. Meanwhile, free agency has two obvious aces – Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg – followed by Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner, Hyun-Jin Ryu and a series of flawed choices. It’s possible some starter-needy teams would just assume swing a trade for Gray than pay up for someone like Jake Odorizzi, who’d also cost a draft pick to reel in, or sign another good but unspectacular free agent.
With Gray, it seems the worst-case scenario is that an acquiring team would be picking up a competent mid- to back-end starter who wouldn’t put much of a dent in its payroll. Best case? The hard-throwing Gray morphs into a front-of-the-rotation bargain. With that in mind, it’s easy to imagine a slew of contenders lining up for Gray’s services if the Rockies were to make him available. Colorado owns one of the majors’ least impressive farm systems (per Baseball America), and dealing Gray could help the franchise improve its class of pre-MLB talent. Moreover, the Rockies doesn’t appear likely to contend in 2020, and there hasn’t been any word about a potential Gray extension. All that said, this looks like an opportune time for general manager Jeff Bridich to consider parting with Gray.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
I like the Idea of the Rangers making a play for him, he won’t cost one of their major prospect… Maybe even have a bigger version of a trade where they get Wade Davis as well in a salary dump for maybe Odor? Jon Gray and Wade Davis for Odor and a mid range prospect plus money or a ptbnl?
I just looked this guy up on StatCast. He is literally the most frequently hard hit pitcher in all of baseball. He gets hutbhard 43.6% of the time. That is terrible. Literally dead last amongst all major league pitchers. Not only that but he doesn’t do great job keeping runners off base either. Apparently he is amongst the worst in the league in his fastball spin rate as well. I’m not sure what that means but it doesn’t sound good. His production this season was good, especially for Colorado, but if he can’t keep guys off base and he’s getting hit very hard more frequently than anybody in the league it seems like he is due for some serious regression. Pitchers that do those things don’t usually perform well at all. His peripherals are basically the polar opposite of Zack Wheeler. The only thing he really has going for him to imply he might stay anywhere near this production is his fastball velocity. I would expect that would get worse though if he leaves Colorado and has to start pitching every game in a denser climate with thicker air and more humidity. The Rox should definitely trade this guy now while his trade value is at its peak. In order to just keep this level of production up he is basically going to have to become a totally different pitcher. If that’s the case it seems like some of these numbers are a complete mirage.
im no phsyics professor and dont claim to be but i think getting out of the thin air in colorado would help his spin rates. i dont know any sources off the top of my head but i remember clearly hearing about how pitchers hate pitching in colorado because it kills their breaking balls which would have to do with their spin
Breaking balls move less at altitude. I’m not sure if spin rate is diminished or if it’s just a factor of less molecules in the air lowering the resistance of the pitched ball.
I tried to find articles tying diminished movement in Colorado resulting in lower spin rate and didn’t find anything.
That said, I’d like to see what the Astros could do with Gray. I wonder what their evaluation of him is.
I think it would help his spin rate but not at an incredibly dramatic pace. It would likely be very slight. Slightly better than terrible is still pretty bad. The most concerning thing to me is how frequently he gets hit hard. They aren’t just hitting his pitches, they are hitting t with the barrel of the bat and an extremely high exit velocity and worst of all it is happening to him more than anyone else in the league. There are a lot of pitchers in MLB. To be dead last in that category is quit amazing really. I mean 43.6% of his pitches? 43.6% of all the pitches he makes not only get hit but get hit hard. That’s insane. How is it even possible that his stats are this low?
he really is kind of a stunning case though right? he averages a k/inning and his gb% was 50% so they both help but the fascinating thing to me is his fip and xfip and are both pretty much in line with his era(fip is a tad higher,xfip a tad lower)
I assume that number is when a guy makes contact, but idk.
in regards to his hard hit rate yes it only includes balls in play, which is where the gb% being 50% comes into play. i included his k rate helping regarding supressing runs
he’s definitely baffling and i’d sure love to see what he can do away from coors full time to see what he’s fully capable of
even more interesting is the fact that his road ERA is almost a full run higher in almost the exact same amount of innings(in 2019 at least), for his career his era on the road is .2 higher than at home
and his righty/lefty splits are basically even as well…this is purplexing
Does anyone know where I can buy this XWO Bacon StatCast keeps advertising? It sounds tasty.
Dumb comment
..send mookie to CO for him. CO will help mookie as a move will help grey.
how was his comment dumb exactly? matter of fact, i’d consider ur comment pretty dumb considering the whole reason for the rockies potentially moving gray is to save payroll and mookie is looking at over $25M(on the low end) in arb
It would take much more than gray to get mookie. Not sure if Colorado has the prospects to get him
Been saying the Padres should go after him for a while. Rockies might be hesitant to trade with a division rival but if anything, the Padres are the ones who should be loathe to do that as it would mean trading top prospects to a division rival for a guy who there is no guarantee will still be around in 2 years.
You and I have both been saying this! Posted it in the Fanpage group. But what we really need….. is Burns’ opinion. Without it, anything we say just isn’t valid..
If the Yankees compromise their self-endowed moral stamina by allowing German to throw another pitch for them, as they did Chapman, Steinbrenner himself should pay the piper. How many more abused women are we going to disregard? When will owners put aside their avaricious and voracious pockets, and actually have some decency? Steinbrenner must himself be legally held accountable for implicitly endorsing domestic violence. Maybe then, and only then, after he is ousted from his reign, will players learn to curb their innate animalistic tendencies, and will the Evil Empire return to its former glory, and sign Cole for a record-setting AAV.
Is off the field stuff
He is already getting punished and serving time if he is guilty. Get out of here with your virtue-signaling m8
Your “moral code” has some dents….Chapman was not arrested for putting his hands on his “girlfriend….he was accused and found guilty of shooting a gun in a garage, and he was not in the Yankees employ at the time….
Players certainly should curb their “animalistic” tendencies only after females looking for the golden ticket of being a trophy wife of an athlete need to be more discernible and responsible for their choices also and not look the other way just because they get to live the golden life until the inevitable breakup or incident….if you knowingly put yourself in that position just to reap the benefits, don’t cry when something happens.
Oh my God that’s a yikes bro. You don’t need to defend these guys and blame victims. Not a good look at all.
wow man, that’s about as equal as saying girls who wear short skirts are asking to be raped…in all seriousness if that’s how u feel about women maybe u should see a psychiatrist
People make mistakes. They serve their time. Hopefully they learn their lesson and grow. If they don’t then it’s time to talk…..
He gives me Cole vibes.
Huh? Really? The article says he might just be a mid to back of the rotating guy and apparently StatCast thinks he’s one of the least impressive pitchers in the entire league. You really think he is similar to Gerrit Cole?
I agree with the Cole statement. I think if he got moved to the right situation and stays healthy, he could be a stud. Not on the level of Cole, but a solid number two on most teams
It isn’t the worst comp. They are both similar sized righties with an arsenal that features a big time fastball, a wipeout hard slider, a curve, and a occasional changeup.
That being said: Gray would need to add a slight tick in velocity and make his four-seamer into more of a rise ball that is throw up in the zone. It is entirely possible his more “sinking” fastball thrown low on the zone is due to Coors.
The same goes for Wheeler. Who has a closer fastball to Cole, but needs to slow down his slider at tad to create more velocity difference/movement
I get the Cole comparison. But Cole was throwing 98-100 with tailing movement in October. Gray works closer to the 95-96 range with what looks like less movement. However, I see him outperforming his statcast #’s with a change of scenery. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him as a top of the rotation guy, health permitting.
I like this guy. He’s pitched well at Coors Field, which in itself is an accomplishment. The Yankees have been finding good players in the Rockies ranks lately, and here’s another one
I can see him going to Houston and becoming a Cy Young contender in 2020.
I can see maybe the Angels, Padres, Cardinals, Brewers, White Sox, Twins, Rangers, and the Cubs as possibilities.
Perfect fit for Cardinals imo trade a surplus outfielder,and prospect for him.
i’d love to see the phils plug gray(traded to philly with shaw) with a lesser arm like wheeler into the rotation and have some more money to throw at the bullpen and shoring up the starting lineup. i dont know how realistic that scenario is(and if the FO would send the prospects out necessary) but we’ve officially reached the part of the season where u dream on what the roster could look like next year
how is Wheeler a “lesser arm” than Gray?
i meant a lesser arm in regards to the names we’ve been rumored with in stras and cole
I’ve been saying for weeks that the Phillies need to call the Rockies. They are the most logical trade partner out there because they are desperate to shed salary and are on the verge of pulling the plug. They’ve made poor decision after poor decision and I think if philly takes on one or 2 of those awful reliever contracts (they tried to copy the 2015 Royals and failed) that they can pry away Gray or Story. Kyle Freeland intrigues me as well. Make that call Klentak!
There is absolutely no way they are prying away Story.
i would in no way take on BOTH davis and shaw, but gimme 1 and gray and i’ll give them medina, another top 10 prospect(not named bohm or howard) and either nick williams or a 10-20 prospect
I wouldn’t trade Medina at this point, not after trading sixto last year.
i’d part with medina in a package for a guy that can legit be near the top of the rotation(i believe gray can) and has at least 2 years of control. i wouldnt part with him for guys like boyd or bundy however
I’d take on Davis OR Shaw and McGee with Gray if I were Klentak. Medina, Pivetta, Vinny, or Eflin (any combination ) along with Williams and one of the younger catching prospects….CO is one of the few teams not asking for Bohm,probably.
whoah, i’d take 1 of those relievers with gray only way i’d take 2 is if they paid down some of one. also, trading eflin just subtracts a starting pitcher to add another. we’d still have 2 holes to fill in the rotation if we made ur trade. also, i dont want to give up on VV. at the very least he can be a long man and spot starter but i think given time to adapt to “bullpen living” he could be an answer in the 6th-8th inning
Gray could draw interest from MIN, PHI, TEX and MIL..
Gray has Ace like stuff. As a Yankee fan I wanted him last year when they sent him down but I know Colorado wasn’t dumping him. I would still be interested in him for a few decent prospects and let him work out if the back of the rotation until he figure it out.
Jon Gray was a Yankees draft pick a few 8 years ago, so Yankees really like him then, but $500 thousand wasn’t enough for him. The problem with the draft, talented pitchers don;t really know their future outcome in the Colorado Org until they realize, especially for a pitcher playing for the Rockies organization and Coors Field in Denver that they need to leave before their stats implode or sign that great contract there or elsewhere. If baseball analytics can’t improve their ability there, a pitcher like JGray is better off in a place like Cleveland, Houston, Dodgers, Rays, and the Yanks. JGray already knows that….
Pirates: Marte for Gray, Hilliard, speculative player.
This is a very dumb trade. I wouldn’t be trading Hilliard for anyone.
Bottom 5 farm, worthless bullpen, no $, = The Bridich legacy
Jays?
Make the deal, Angels. Cmon.
I’m far from a Cubs fan but they shouldn’t sell low on Quintana. Teams will only want to pay his current value. Let the new coaching staff have a crack at working with him to either rebuild his trade value or become what they traded for in the first place. It’s not as if he’s so bad he’s hurting the team he’s just currently not a top tier starter. If he was a project type guy who wasn’t in their top five I’d get how they’d need to move on but he was at least better than that.
Current value? In 4 of the last 5 years his era has been higher then 4.00.Those 5 years were 4.15 4.49 3.74 4.03 4.68. In the last 2 years his whip has been 1..39 and 1..32 with a career whip 0f 1..27..What is the great past value that exists anywhere except in your head