We’ve already rounded up news from the American League twice today. Now, let’s take a look at the latest on a pair of bitter rivals from the Senior Circuit.
- The Giants seem likely to hold onto Jeff Samardzija and Johnny Cueto this offseason, opines Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle. That’s not particularly surprising, as San Francisco has little in the way of rotation depth. Samardzija looks like a plausible trade candidate, but any return figures to be minimal. He’ll make $18MM as a 35-year-old rental and looks like a back-end starter at this point. Cueto, meanwhile, will need to reestablish his health before another club will consider paying down some of the $46MM he’s due over the next two seasons (including a 2023 buyout). The veteran (34 in February) started just four games in September following an August 2018 Tommy John Surgery. As Schulman notes, each pitcher could see his trade value rebound with a strong first half.
- The Dodgers have had a quiet start to the offseason, observes Andy McCullough of the Athletic. Given the club’s repeated postseason disappointments in recent years, many L.A. fans have called for a roster shakeup. That sentiment is shared by some in the Dodgers’ front office, relays McCullough, although the club’s only significant acquisition thus far has been reliever Blake Treinen, who inked a one-year, $10MM deal two weeks ago. While there’s still time for the Dodgers to make a splash- they remain front and center on the latest Mike Clevinger and Francisco Lindor rumors- McCullough points out that they haven’t acted rashly under Andrew Friedman’s leadership. They may not need to so this offseason, as they again look to be the overwhelming favorites in the NL West.
If LA stands pat, it will be another early exit from the playoffs. They benefit from being in a historically weak division; however, the Padres, et al. are gaining.
The nl West is not historically weak at all the al central is
I wouldn’t say historically weak. The Rockies have multiple WS appearances. So do the D’backs (with at least on championship off the top of my head), and the Giants are probably the team of the decade in MLB. The only weak link is the Padres.
Now if you said, recently watered down I’d agree.
Both Colorado and Arizona have reached the World Series once each.
Al east has the jays and orioles, the nl east has the marlins but everyone thinks the nl west is weak.
Which is one more than the Mariners ever have.
Padres have 2 WS appearances. Get your facts straight.
Too bad they didn’t win with a WS with Tony Gwynn; he was awesome personally and professionally. I’m of course referring to 84, not 98 when they lost to the one of the best teams in the history of baseball – the ‘98 Yankees were incredible.
True, but the Pads been around forever and usually suck. I only mentioned the Rox and Dbacks because they were two of the most recent expansion teams.
One more time than a lot of other teams. My point is neither club is “historically weak”. In 25 years the Rox have 5 playoff appearances and an NL pennant. In 20 years the Dbacks have 5 division titles, a WC appearance, and a WS championship. That’s more than some of the “tough” teams in the AL East.
OK, but I was just correcting the incorrect info you provided. You’re moving the goal posts here, dude.
AL Central supplied the AL Pennant winner in 2016, 2015, 2014, and 2012. That’s 4/10 times this past decade. How is that “historically weak”? Just because 3 teams were tanking hard last 2 years?
yes. when 3 of the 5 teams in the division are tanking it makes for an extremely weak division
Nah the Padres aren’t gaining a thing. Everything went wrong in the playoffs and they barley lost. And while that exit was early it might as well have been the NLCS. Nats wont catch every break in the world next year and the Dodgers should be back in the fall classic.
LA lost Ryu who had a stellar season. They did not much to address their pen. They do continue to have the luxury of being a very deep team with respect to their daily line up. Their window of opportunity for a WS is now.
David, Dodgers did improve the pen. However, losing Ryu requires another experienced starter.
“Barely lost” that is funny. What does that mean. You think you get brownie points for “almost” winning”. In that case why do the Dodgers get those brownies over lets say the Cardinals who actually won a series
Yes they barley lost and its ok to say that when analyzing team construction. I dont care for any brownie points but if you want to pretend the Dodgers and Nationals winner was not going to the World Series you can. Dodgers would have wiped the deck with the Cards or Braves.
Cardinals fan but not trying to be a homer. While I concede the Dodgers were far and beyond a better team you never know in October. If memory serves me correctly the Cardinals have owned the Dodgers in the playoffs over the past 10-15 years and the vast majority or all of which the Dodgers were favored. Their 1-2-3 of Kershaw, Grienke, and Ryu was awesome but it’s the playoffs you never know who might step up or have a bad game or series
If by “owned” you mean happening to drill the Dodgers’ hottest hitter in the ribs and breaking one of them in Game 1 then “yes”, congrats.
No they wouldn’t of. Dodgers are a terrible team. They fall apart every time it’s a pressure situation. As long as Kershaw is on the team the dodgers will never win.
I guess they fell apart when they beat the reigning champs Cubs in 2017 and the red hot 2018 Brewers.
Dodgethis thank you! Was having a terrible day at work and then read your post. Need a good laugh. Thanks for the ignorance and making my day get better!
And sign stealing
The Nat’s “catching a break”? Really? Is that the excuse you use for every team that’s eliminated the Dodgers year in and year out?
If you think going 5-0 in elimination games is not catching a break than nothing is. Its not an excuse at all and I was not even talking about it from a Dodger perspective.
No, rondon, just the Nats.
It’s not catching a break in any sense of the term. It’s called being good in clutch situations, something the dodgers have zero experience in.
@ Dodgethis
kirk gibson begs to differ.
Tired of hearing how the Pads are gaining
Do something already. When was the last FA that worked out ?
Why are they gaining because Tatis is up & they signed Machado ? The rest of the team stinks and the GM is a mess. He is all over the place.
Pomeranz bridges Yates
Pham/Grisham > Renfroe
Full year of Paddack Lamet Richard (hopefully)
Paddack Richard Lamet Davies Lucchessi is better rotation than they’ve had in years
Rest of team stinks…..Yates Paddack Pham stink apparently.
Well SteelerBrave asked a question and Dabogus answered it
Ok Pomeranz is now the next coming of 96 Mariano Rivera all because of a good 2nd half last year ?
Ok Pham was an ok pick up don’t feel he is that much better than Renfroe just different. He costs more & is signed for 1 more year
Paddack fell off last year and the rest of your rotation screams mediocre. Hopefully Gore comes up soon.
Hosmer= failure
Heard about how great Urias was going to be for how many years and where is he oh yeah Milwaukee
Padres been all hype for a few years now and have not improved whatsoever
1. Pomeranz has always been a good/great pen piece since his days with the A’s; if you’re looking at his overall performance which includes him as a starter you’re doing it wrong. Mariano Rivera? No. Brad Hand 2.0? Yes.
2. Pham isn’t much better than renfroe? Ok. Renfroe is gonna give an OPS+ between 100 and 120 due to his inability to draw walks. Pham is capable of maxing out at around 130 to 140, which means he is a huge improvement over renfroe. Phams obp ability is far better than renfroes.
3. Oh no hosmer sucks? So that’s your response to me calling out you saying Padres had noone outside Machado/Tatis Jr?
4. Oh the rookie pitcher Paddack fell off? You don’t say? The rookie who was not far removed from tjs declined due to pitching more than he even had before? Weird.
5. The rotation is fine. It’s not elite. But it’s far from mediocre. The biggest question is health of the rotation. When healthy it’ll be a decent/good rotation.
6. Some prospects aren’t panning out? Kind of like newcomb Allard wright etc haven’t panned out like the braves hoped? Weird. It’s like that happens.
Padres are gonna be the surprise team in the NL this year. I know most pundits have attached that kudo to the Reds, but I really like the Padres pitching. They have enough offense to complement the pitching, maybe even more than enough if Pham is healthy all year. Smug LA hierarchy better not sleep on the Padres chances.
Padres should have thrown $300M at Strasburg but instead acted like morons who care about making an extra $100M in profit over on-field success.
I mean they are gaining in that they are probably as good as last year’s Arizona Diamondbacks now, which means they’re probably at least a .500 team, but they’re certainly not yet a 90 win team.
Padres won’t be 500 maybe 2025.
The Dodgers need to realize that Kershaw sucks in money games. Find another option in the playoffs. Kershaw is killing the Dodgers in big games.
“Historically weak”…based on what data? They benefit from good management.
Friend, if you take the Dodgers out, the NL West still had a winning record against the rest of the NL this year. The NL West is not the weakest division in the NL, much less MLB as a whole; it just looks that way because they have to play the Dodgers so many times.
Not really.
Actually “not really “ to a previous poster.
If you’re going to be able to win the division on the current roster, what’s wrong with waiting around and seeing your areas of need at the trade deadline? I hate the Dodgers, but you can’t be critical of them for the offseason. Save it for the trade deadline if they don’t do anything.
Hasn’t the NL West represented the NL in the world series 5 times in the past 9 years?
Does seam like it
While I’d like to see an ‘elite’ player added it is not a given that one will put LA over the top concerning the WS. Furthermore, Kelly might live up to his contract and maybe Jansen will too. Baez has been good fr a couple of years. If Pollock(especially), Bellinger and Seager would have hit in the post season this year, it may have been altogether different, If they don’t again, it will take a lot more than a new arm/bat to win anything.
The Dodgers can’t keep getting complacent with winning the division every year. As an Indians fan, the fact that they did the same thing had big consequences for them last year. They got complacent and assumed they’d coast to another division title while still saving money, but the Twins made them pay for it.
The Dodgers and Indians are in two different stratospheres as far as resources and prospect capital go, so it isn’t a perfect comparison. And doing what you can to sustain competitiveness is probably the smartest decision when you remove all emotions. But sometimes teams just need to go all in instead of sitting back and hoping for the best. Sometimes you need to just take a chance.
Some great reading here.
The Dodgers are never going to all-in because they have built to not have a window; they don’t have the same sorts of talent retention issues that Cleveland does. Also, they’re 10+ wins better in baseline than Cleveland was last offseason.
They really have no reason to take ‘a chance’. It’s very difficult to upgrade their club in a meaningful way; review FG’s depth charts; they project for 3+ war at literally every position. It is hard to upgrade that kind of team without subtracting somewhere else.
Junts1l;
Great points.
The off-season is fools gold and has been since free agency started. The obvious conclusions about teams when entering Spring Training are pretty much gone by late May. Season storylines don’t even begin to unroll until late June. It’s always about which players on teams suddenly get better, and which ones begin to run out of gas…..and that’s before injuries check in.
FO’s can only bring as much depth in as their budgets will allow; while adhering – like any business does – to short, intermediate, and long-term plans. Since most FO’s stay intact for years, each FO has goals that it’s in the middle of, based on budget considerations and the years of control they have with players on their roster. 150 years of history has shown that no matter what FO’s do, the games – and surprises – happen on the field by the players.
All FO’s can do is to try to position their teams to be contenders. The key is sustainability – try to be good for years, and at some point something may kick in. The Nationals did that in 2019 – who foresaw them as Champions? I sure didn’t – I picked the Braves for the NL East which they won. But by mid-June at the latest I realized that while they started slow, the Nationals were playing the best baseball in MLB…….
Corbin was a nice signing, but hardly dominant. Max was his usual Cy Young contender self but he was out with nagging injuries at times. Strasburg finally matured as a pitcher and became the Ace. Turner stopped hot-dogging at SS and became more economical in his movements, crisp in his play, and prepared on each pitch on what he’d have to do depending on where the ball was hit. His offense stabilized as well. Soto added to his 2018 season, showing more power at age 20 along with thanks to a juiced baseball. Robles worked hard and continued to get better each week. Eaton was solid all year. Rendon did what he’d done for the last 5 years – being solid and getting better. The veterans – Howie, Adams, Dozier, (later) Asdrubal and Zim – were too old to play at a high level full-time, Davey divvied up playing time perfectly. As usual the bullpen was questionable, and as usual Rizzo and the FO brought in enough arms by the deadline to have them positioned to win.
None of the above was planned. The Nationals did not “go for it” heading into 2019. They made good in-season moves based on what was needed. The statistics / analytics do not show that acquiring Gerardo Parra was the most important acquisition – it caused that team to take off and bond throughout the year. Obvious to all those that watched or listened to many of the games.
–
IMO, what the Dodgers are missing is leadership. It doesn’t need to come from a $250m signing. It’s why they can’t knock the door down. As for the Indians – like all small market teams, sustainability is challenging. They’re hemmed in by budget considerations. Only a small percentage of their veteran players will sign extensions. So they have to constantly develop young players knowing the seniors will not be coming back next year. If they “go for it” they may have one nice season. Then- like AA’s 2015 Blue Jays – they’ll shoot their wad and have to wait 7-8 years – if all goes well – to become serious contenders again.
Junts1l;
Great points.
The off-season is fools gold and has been since free agency started. The obvious conclusions about teams when entering Spring Training are pretty much gone by late May. Season storylines don’t even begin to unroll until late June. It’s always about which players on teams suddenly get better, and which ones begin to run out of gas…..and that’s before injuries check in.
FO’s can only bring as much depth in as their budgets will allow. While adhering – like any business does – to short, intermediate, and long-term plans. Since most FO’s stay intact for years, each FO has goals that it’s in the middle of, based on budget considerations and the years of control they have with players on their roster. 150 years of history has shown that no matter what FO’s do, the games – and surprises – happen on the field by the players.
All FO’s can do is to try to position their teams to be contenders. The key is sustainability – try to be good for years, and at some point something may kick in. The Nationals did that in 2019 – who foresaw them as Champions? I sure didn’t – I picked the Braves for the NL East which they won. But by mid-June at the latest I realized that while they started slow, the Nationals were playing the best baseball in MLB…….
The Nationals did not “go for it” heading into 2019. They made good in-season moves based on what was needed. The statistics / analytics do not show that acquiring Gerardo Parra was the most important acquisition – it caused that team to take off and bond throughout the year. Obvious to all those that watched or listened to many of the games.
–
IMO, what the Dodgers are missing is leadership. It doesn’t need to come from a $250m signing. It’s why they can’t knock the door down. As for the Indians – like all small market teams, sustainability is challenging. They’re hemmed in by budget considerations. Only a small percentage of their veteran players will sign extensions. So they have to constantly develop young players knowing the seniors will not be coming back next year. If they “go for it” they may have one nice season. Then- like AA’s 2015 Blue Jays – they’ll shoot their wad and have to wait 7-8 years – if all goes well – to become serious contenders again.
Nice post, Vandals.
Tribe walks a narrow tightrope to contention…Dodgers drive a Maserati over a freakin’ bridge.
As a Tribe fan, I have to rely on wealthy teams becoming fat, lazy, and impatient, causing them to spend their money foolishly and minimize the value of young, unproven talent.
Unfortunately, the Dodgers are my worst nightmare; they are smart, prudent, and rich as hell.
Only stupid Dodger fan can change that with their insane demands for an immediate championship.
So I beseech the Dodgers’ front office and Andrew Friedman: listen to your poor suffering fans, and go all in for a championship this year. Trade your entire farm system for a winning lottery ticket. It will be sooooo worth it!
{har-dee-har-har}
Re: lacking leadership. Our manager seems like a good guy and was a good ballplayer. He just makes so many mistakes with his pitching staff and his obsession with analytics is a real team killer. No set lineup and always seems to save his big mistakes for the high pressure games.
What’s funny is that if it were actually a guarantee, I could probably be convinced that having a finite ‘window’ was an acceptable tradeoff, but the net gain of moving all those pieces is so small that it is not. I don’t think Cubs or Red Sox fans should be unhappy that their teams sold out the future in order to win a title, but they should have been unhappy at the time because the odds of that manuver paying off aren’t very good.
And the upside is, indeed, knowing that regardless of how hysterical folks get on the internet, Andrew Friedman doesn’t give a shit and knows what the best odds play is to get title(s): keep gettin’ to the dance as a favorite.
One of the things that truly irritates me about baseball culture is that we’ve imported our championship standards from sports where a single player or coach is a powerful controlling factor in who will win (like the NBA or NFL QBs), and we constantly attribute failures of skill, character, leadership, etc to those who don’t win instead of simply acknowledging that the other guys played really well.
The Nationals didn’t have a better team than the Dodgers last year, but they played well when it mattered and they deserved to win a title. It happens. It doesn’t mean the Dodgers are weak-willed and stupid; it just means the Nationals stepped up, kept their cool and capitalized on the breaks that went their way. People criticize Dodger hitters for choking instead of giving credit to pitchers who beat them who happen to be extremely skilled (like, you know, Steven Strasburg and Max Scherzer). When the best face off in baseball, someone’s got to lose; it diminishes the achievement of the victor to act like it came about that way because of the opponent’s weakness. The Nats beat 2 of the best teams not just of the decade but ever (and also the Cardinals lol): praise them for that incredible achievement, instead.
A big part of the Nationals was Corbin signed before the season. He was a major signing. After they got Corbin most were saying they were going to be one of the teams to watch. The guy didn’t have his very best year but 14-7 a 3.2 ERA and clutch pitching in spots of the playoffs got the Nats over the hump. The Dodgers hoard minor leaguers who really haven’t panned out except for Bellinger. The Dodgers will not have to sacrifice the whole team to improve their right handed shortage, finally have a true leadoff hitter bringing on speed and arguably the best defensive shortstop in the Majors getting Lindor only 25.. I say get him and unclog the system leaving room for others.
The Dodgers have a 30+ year title drought in one of the biggest markets in the sport. They’ve also come so close the past few years, and just can’t get over the hump. They have a lot more reason to go for it than most other teams do. (I also already mentioned that they aren’t a perfect comparison to the Indians.)
The point of my argument is that the sustained contention model is smart in a vacuum, but every team that’s won a title recently has done more than sit back and hope for good luck. They’ve legitimately gone for it. The Nationals overhauled their bullpen at the deadline and signed Corbin last offseason (letting Harper walk helped them do that and made room for Robles). The 2018 Red Sox had just signed JD Martinez, the 2017 Astros traded for Verlander, the 2016 Cubs traded for Chapman, the 2015 Royals traded for Cueto and Zobrist, and so on. As far as I’m concerned, sustained contention is smart if you’re content being “good but not good enough” every year. If you want to win a title though, you’re going to have to take more risks. That’s just how it goes.
As for the Dodgers, they thrive on depth. Having a good-looking depth chart is fine, but it’s not like there still isn’t room to add. If they were to go all in on someone (Lindor, for instance) then Seager moves to third if he isn’t part of the return, Turner moves to first, Bellinger becomes a full-time outfielder, etc. If they wanted to be aggressive, they could.
Let me add that at this point we’re just debating philosophy. There’s no sense in trying to change how someone else thinks.
As a fan of a small-market team, I’ve been conditioned to adhere to the idea of sustained contention and trying to be pretty good every year and hoping that the chips fall your way in any given year. It’s not a bad option.
But my personal opinion is that that’s not good enough. I disagree with going all in when the situation doesn’t call for it (Vandals mentioning the Blue Jays from a few years ago is a good example), but when you have a team that’s capable of winning a title, I think you need to do everything you can to push them over the top.
The future isn’t guaranteed. You can’t bank on everyone on your team staying healthy, effective, etc…sports are unpredictable, and you can do whatever you want to build a team that can be competitive long-term. But if you look too far toward the future and ignore the present, you might pass up the best chance you’ll get.
I’ll just throw out there that there’s a difference between medium/small market teams trying to be on the edge of contention every year and the Dodgers being the best team in the NL every year. The impact of a single player on a playoff series is simply not high, and the Dodgers have made moves when there were moves to make; they’re simply not regarded as having done so because they didn’t follow on by winning (eg Darvish in 17, Machado 18, Hill in 16).
It’s one thing to decide that your 90-win roster will probably have a good shot at the playoffs and you don’t ever extend yourself to being a favorite, but the Dodgers have been, are, and will continue to be the favorite in their league. The return on further investment is very low, and they have the talent in the pipeline to continue to be a 95-100 win team for the foreseeable future (3 of FG’s top 12 prospects are Dodgers!)
I understand why that frame of reference looks similar to teams have have cost themselves their competitive window by never maximizing their odds and then taking the downside of a season where things go against them, but the Dodgers made the WS anyway in their version of that season (2018). They’ll have the highest WS odds in the national league on opening day, and probably on October 1st, too. There’s really not that much you can do at that point.
There’s always more to be done. Even just saying that somehow a team has hit some sort of invisible wall on the level of quality of the team should achieve is another way of saying that complacency is a strategy for winning. The main question to be asked is whether this team, or any other, is better this year than last year. If the team isn’t rebuilding the goal should be getting better. Or what’s the point?
This story should run here but since it probably won’t, here is the take of Dylan Hernandez on this situation. In a nutshell he’s saying that until the competition in the NLW seriously challenges the Dodgers for winning the division, the Dodgers can continue to play for the division and hope to get lucky after that. It’s so apparent that this is how they’ve got it figured I don’t know what kind of counterargument can be made.
latimes.com/sports/dodgers/story/2019-12-23/weak-n…
World Series odds don’t mean anything. If they did, then the Nationals should have just mailed it in over the summer.
You don’t add players just for the sake of adding players, but if there’s a chance to make your team better, you take it. If the Dodgers were too good to keep adding players, they should have already won a title by now. Getting complacent won’t help.
Yes, but how much would Lindor really put the Dodgers over the top? In 2017, Verlander put up awe-inspiring numbers. If he was the ho-hum Verlander from earlier that year, there’s a good chance the Astros would have lost and this narrative would be broken. And at the same time, the glaring need has to be there. The Astros’ ace was Dallas Keuchel, who had gone down with injury. Morton and McCullers also missed time that year, and the MVP of that season was arguably Brad Peacock, who is mostly just some dude that casual fans would never recognize. Then this year with Greinke, same thing, hole in the rotation. KC, holes in the staff and no utility. The Dodgers are a model for consistency that keeps putting them in the hunt and giving them the best chance to win every year. Just because they lost 2017 in 7 games doesn’t mean their roster construction was bad. Sometimes things happen. Was Houston’s strategy bad this year? No, it was really quite good. They just got beat. So making moves just to make them is what the media wants maybe, but GMs should know better.
Disagree with your window killing philosophy. The window will close or become much smaller when one of the other NL west teams finally gets it right. Which they will. Once a team in the west is able to line up two grade A pitchers the dodgers window will break. I don’t care that they didn’t add a bat. But to not add a starter was a mistake. Dodgers win the west by 3 games and are eliminated by the Braves. My prediction.
Wait, didn’t I just say the same things?
Just one thing I want to throw out there about why I think Dylan is wrong: the dodgers aren’t ‘settling for winning the division’. They’re settling for ‘being the best team in the NL’, and it’s simply a lot harder to improve from that position. The team is built around depth, and it’s strong across the roster. You can imagine ways and places to upgrade, but it’s very difficult to improve the team without making it worse somewhere else.
I think if there was a team considering moving a player like Lindor or Betts who was not also potentially competitive: a bad team that wanted to take back talent that would be good in a few years, not in this coming season – the Dodgers would get serious and find a way to do it.
But trading for a Lindor or a Betts is almost impossible because the pieces that those teams want as a return for those players are ones you are already expecting to contribute to next year’s team. Gavin Lux and Dustin May aren’t just the 2022 future of the team: they are going to be major players on the team next year. Ditto Verdugo and a lot of other players who are discussed in these kinds of rumors. That’s why the trades never come together in the first place. It’s almost impossible for two teams seeking to compete in the same season(s) to come up with mutually beneficial trades of high-end talent.
The only way the Dodgers were really gonna add a strong player was in free agency, and there were really only 3 players on the market who would make a noticable impact in the quality of the team;
Rendon didn’t consider their offers
Strasburg was widely viewed as returning to WAS if they wanted him to
Cole was made a serious offer, far more than they’ve ever offered anyone else (8/300!) and chose the one team in MLB that has more resources than the Dodgers
After those 3, there’s almost nothing on the market that is a substantial upgrade. Check out Dustin May’s projections: he’s gonna be as good as dudes like Wheeler within a year, and he’ll probably be better than Bumgarner or Keuchel in 2020!
Folks should appreciate that the improvements they’re asking for are the icing on the cake: the roster’s really good, and every team in baseball that isn’t the Yankees would kill to be in the position the Dodgers are in (even the Astros, now that they have depleted their farm in the Greinke acquisition, have a similar current roster but a weaker future). And the Dodgers were probably better than the Yankees until Cole signed there, and they still have a stronger farm.
Appreciate how good we have it; it is very, very hard to make the team better without giving up part of what makes it as good as it already is.
Thanks for reading the article. That at least gives us something to discuss.
I am forever hearing about the “serious offers” the Dodgers make to free agents, who just happen to sign elsewhere, as if free agents often sign with teams that don’t make them the best offer. “Only three” impact players is actually quite a lot, and we know the Dodgers had conversations with several more who they at least must have thought would improve the team. They also declined to apparently even speak to another. So now we’re looking at a rotation that wasn’t good enough for the postseason last year being weaker, not better.
Projections for prospects or even rookies don’t interest me much because they are only projections based on very little actual data. But we do know that only a fraction of prospects actually become true impact players and which ones will is very difficult to predict. Farm system are like bank accounts. They aren’t worth much if you never spend them.
In any event, having passed on all the options that would have cost money rather than prospects we’re talking about how much future a team should give up to get themselves a better chance to succeed now. We should not forget, management painted themselves into that corner by not anteing up for the free agents.
Also, we should know that depth may be a solid approach to performing well in the regular season, but it isn’t the way to win postseasons. The core of 15-20 players make that possible. So whenever I hear someone argue that we should be thrilled with the depth of the Dodgers have assembled, I have to point out where this emphasis on depth got us.
I’m not sure the rotation is weaker for 2020. I too would like to see another arm before spring but, if not, I think folks forget how good Urias was at the start of last season. He was probably the best pitcher coming out of spring training – granted Kershaw was injured and Buehler was slow played – before he got bumped from the rotation early to save innings. That’s not going to happen this year. I hear projections about a 150 inning limit for him but so what; Maeda only threw 153 last year. Urias will have an ERA+ above 100, a WHIP around 1.000, and he’s a power arm.
Dustin May isn’t just any prospect/rookie. He threw a combined 140 innings last year and showed well in his call up. There’s a reason every team that speaks trade with the Dodgers want him. He’s an interesting #4 or #5 starter. And just because he’s a rookie doesn’t mean he won’t earn his keep. I remember Michael Wacha in ’13 and Buehler in ’18.
Will I miss Ryu and Hill? Sure but I’ve been waiting for Urias and now May to be unblocked and this looks like the year. Remember if it doesn’t work out there’s always the trade dealine.
The Astros farm is doing fine lol look at Jose Urquidy and Josh James, no one even knew who those guys were. They thrive on nobodies.
I thought Machado was supposed to be their savior…
I’m confused. What are you talking about?
Spelled Gore Paddack Tatis Jr wrong.
Dodger are just fine if anything they are retooling a bit. A lot of young talent coming up and need a bit more time
No reason to sell the farm and over pay for Betts when they can sign him next year.
Lindor would be nice but not for heat the Indians are asking.
Time is running out and may have already ran out. The window to win a world series never stays open for long.
2017-Lost in the world series in 7 games
2018-Lost in the world series in 5 games
2019-Lost in the NLDS in 5 games
We have gone backwards the past couple of seasons and relying on young talent is always a hit or miss. Our roster is built for the regular season, not the postseason. It also doesn’t help when the manager gets outmanaged in every series and worries more about hurting players feelings than winning.
Sure the window is closing even though they have a ton of young talent and a ton of payroll space long term.
“may have run out?” what do you mean? most of the same pieces are there minus Ryu and Hill (who may not combine for a full year of starts in 2020 given their injury histories)
Those same pieces haven’t gotten the job done the past 3 seasons. What makes you think anything is going to be different? Not to mention our ace and closer aren’t the same players they were a couple of years ago.
This team hasn’t gotten any better but keep living in a fantasy world where every top prospect ends up having a hall of fame career.
Ryu and Hill combined for over 20 plus wins.
@Darren…… The Dodgers have several key players(Bellinger, Verdugo, May, Urias, Lux, Smith, and I believe Buehler) that are all under 25. The typical age where a player peaks is 28. Which means roughly 25% of their team is improving on it’s own. All of which are capable of making massive growths this season. Friedman, being as smart as he is, is quite aware of this, and knows the margin of production between a young, homegrown ascending player is not far off compared to an expensive free agent that’s already peaked. In most cases that free agent also would cost the Dodgers a compensation 1st rd pick as well. Do you even realize the value of that pick alone? I agree on your comment about the manager though. The WS loss falls strictly on Roberts 2 years ago, and some could debate sign stealing by the Astros cost another. So the talent IS there.
Buehler and Seager are both 25.
The entire team minus Turner, Pollock, Jansen, Kelly, Maeda and Kershaw are under 30, please buy a damn clue before opening your mouth in future.
To say nothing of the Dodgers having 3 of FG’s top 12 (lol) prospects in all of MLB on the way with a full 6 years of service time each (May. Lux, and Ruiz).
They are never going to compromise future competitiveness to improve their odds to win next year by 3%. Because that is a very stupid thing to do.
Dodgers have until July 31, 2020 to make any needed additions for an October run. You really cannot pass judgement on Friedman until then. As indicated, they will likely win the NL West regardless of doing anything between now and July. They can take the time to evaluate what they have in the rotation with Urias, May, Gonsolin, Stripling. They can see if Lux is an impact player and if Seager further bounces back. With all the talk of Seager’s down 2019, he did hit like 50 doubles and is still relatively young.
They will know by July if Jasnen, Trienen, Kelly, etc are good enough or toast.
Would fans preferred adding one of the big three free agents, of course they would. However, gutting the system right now just to make a move for the sake of doing so, does not make much sense.
That’s a flawed concept, especially now. Since the loss of the waiver deadline, more teams are hanging onto their tradable talent. The pickings in July are getting slim and have always been slimmer than in the offseason. By last July it was clear Jansen was never going to be close to the pitcher he’d been, and Kelly wasn’t the answer either. So how did they fix those deficiencies?
Blue…..I”m sorry but you are wrong. Trading for a rental at or near the deadline costs a team a fraction of what it would now. Friedman’s philosophy is to build a winning team year after year and that’s what he’s done. All Dodger’s fans did was bad mouth Colleti for all long term, over priced crippling contracts he gave FA’s, now they have a mastermind GM who knows better, but yet people like you still whine and complain.
You’re correct that the loss of the waiver deadline – along with the second wild card – have made deadline trades more difficult but that wasn’t the Dodger’s issue last year. They knew only a few trade candidates would improve them so they went hard for Vasquez. Ruiz and Gray was a haul that Pittsburgh foolishly declined. Plan B was to call up May and Gonsolin which they did. Any other acquisition would have been more “dumpster diving” that the FO is often accused and questionably better than the rookies.
I just want to say that Joe Kelly is awful and it’s not wise to hope he’s a cog in a big three bullpen
like all relievers, Joe Kelly is either awful or fantastic, and he was both of those things at different points last year. His appearance in NLDS Game 5 epitomized his season: like the stretch from June 1 through September, in the 9th inning he was completely dominant, unhittable. Like the first 2 months of the year, in the 10th inning he was useless.
Joe Kelly is just the reliever-est reliever who has ever relieved.
I wish the Braves could develop prospects like the Dodgers
Yes we have some coming up but after this next wave I wish it to continue
The restrictions hurt though
What? You don’t think Acuna, Albies, Acuna, Freeman and Patch fit the definition of homegrown players. You can even include Swanson in that lot because he was a D-back about as long as I was a D-Back and I wasn’t ever a D-Back!
Back-to-back NL East titles not good enough? There are a number of NL teams who would gladly trade places with the Braves.
Good luck Dellin with the Mets! Hope you had parting words with Randy Levine..
nobody wants cueto
The trade deadline often changes nobodies to somebodies.
Dodger fans just don’t appreciate how absurd the roster is that they have the privilege of watching on a regular basis. FG’s depth charts projects them for 3+ war at every single position on the diamond. It is very, very difficult to upgrade that kind of roster in a meaningful way without subtracting in another category; the upgrade from Seager to Lindor exists, but it’s so small that it’s not a net positive if you give up anyone who will contribute meaningfully at another position.
Even in the rotation, where folks are freaking out about Ryu’s departure, they seem to forget that they didn’t really expect that performance from Ryu last year. 2020 might be the first time in a few seasons that the Dodgers don’t have an actual 2nd MLB quality rotation sitting around waiting for the first rotation to get injured, but they’ll still run 8 or 9 deep with high-end talent on the way (Dustin May in particular, but also Mitchell White and Tony Gonsolin and Josiah Gray).
I think it is really hard to fans to accept how small any single player is in terms of changing your odds of winning the WS once you reach the playoffs: even the very best pitcher only increases you by 2-3%.
The Dodgers could have signed Cole, Rendon, traded for Lindor and Betts, and they’d still not increase their odds of winning the World Series by all that much, because their playoff odds are already going to be virtually 100% on opening day, and the differences in quality of team just don’t matter that much in short playoff series
Dodger fans are at the point where they will not be satisfied with anything but a title, but there’s not actually a single thing Andrew Friedman can do that changes their odds of winning in any given season by a significant factor, and it’s very easy to piss away future highly competitive seasons by short-sightedly trading top end talent.
The team has an absolutely phenomenal record with prospects they refuse to trade (Bellinger. Buehler, Verdugo, etc), and it’s quite likely that in 3-4 years, people will be so very, very glad that Dustin May or Gavin Lux were off-limits, too.
It’s all just very stupid; you can’t buy or trade for a world series title in MLB.
The Dodgers let the Yankees win the World Series.
That’s exactly what Gerrit Cole represents.
Astros had Gerrit Cole, at his career best, along with Verlander and Greinke. That top 3 and they somehow didn’t win.
There are no guarantees.
I’d love for the Dodgers to go all-in, but that might cost them the ability to compete down the line. They’re one of the best teams year in and year out because they don’t mortgage their future for a slightly better shot one year.
Even then, they’ve made trades for help in 2016, 2017, and 2018, including the biggest trade pieces in two of those years. They’re built to be there every year, and continue to be there for some time. One year it’ll break their way (or won’t run into a team that’s cheating).
It’s hard for a lot of people to accept the idea that the best team doesn’t win the world series: The best team(s) are viable contenders, and whichever of them has a hot streak or the best breaks go in their favor wins. The 2018 red sox were remarkable exactly because it’s quite rare for a team to both win the most games and then actually win the world series
Cole helps, but he helps the Yankees (who have real divisional competition) a lot more than he helps the Dodgers (who will have 95% or higher playoff odds on opening day) because he both helps them get to the dance and once they’re in it.
If the best team always won, the last 5 WS champions would be the Cardinals, Cubs, Dodgers, Red Sox, and Astros. Only 2 of those teams actually did it (Cubs/Red Sox). If you go back another 5 years, you can only add one more (2013)
That’s a tough pill for people to swallow, but MLB’s playoffs aren’t designed to see the best teams win most of the time; they’re designed so that anyone who can get to the dance has a reasonable chance and they don’t feel like a foregone conclusion (the way the NBA often is before the Finals).
You can add 2014 Angels to that list. Played scintillating baseball from late May to early September – when in what has become Angels tradition all the arms fell off. Still won more games than anyone in regular season, swept 3-0 by KC,,,,
Junts1 great post and spot on. Dodger fan here and listening to all these whiners is giving me the biggest laugh. We won 100+ games again, set a team record in HRs, got a bona fide superstar in Bellinger, some nice young pitching on the way, and no way Kelly is that bad next year. Losing Verdugo when we did didn’t help either. There’s a lot to look forward to. Fans need to put a lid on it and chill.
So your saying
Cole and verlander where 6% of the reason the Astros won the World Series last year
@ Junts1
Smart posts. Every single darn one of them.
Rats.
Signed,
Tribe Fan
“………..there’s not actually a single thing Andrew Friedman can do that changes their odds of winning in any given season by a significant factor, ”
sure there is, dump roberts.
Junts……Thank for your posts good reads. All the whining from IGNORANT Dodger’s fans is quite embarrassing to me as a Dodger’s fan. People apparently just enjoy complaining more then winning.
Shark is one of those players that you just wonder what might have been. Career OPS+ of 98, 15 BWAR, career earnings of over $100K, and everyone who got their hands on him thought the were getting a gem. Never had a BWAr above 2.9.
Great stuff, never really figured it out.
Never could figure out how a guy whose stuff generally was down in the zone could repeatedly be at or near the top of HRs allowed. I guess he couldn’t either.
it has a lot to do with 2 things, the shift of hitters to an uppercut swing and the lack of consistency in the split finger. both have lead to a few bad pitches a game that go out of the park, that blows all his other good numbers up
Dodgers gotta replace Ryu that is about all that is needed to do
I would do Ruiz & May for Clevinger
They missed the boat on Kluber that is who they should have gotten
Watch a Musgrove for Ruiz deal I could see that with possibly more going both ways but then being the central components
Why would you trade all 6 years of Dustin May and Keibert Ruiz for 3 years of Mike Clevenger who is barely projected to be better than May next season, much less after that?
Fangraphs has May as the 3rd best SP prospect in baseball, after Whitley and Gore, and he’s already in MLB!
There is no reason to make that kind of trade; it doesn’t actually improve the team.
The only thing the Dodgers have to do to be the favorite to have the best record in the National League is keep everyone on the team alive until the season starts.
Projected vs reality, I suppose.
No one wants Samardzija. he has been barely average his whole career. He should have stuck with football. Could have been pretty good 4th rounder maybe.
Football? He’s made almost $100 million playing baseball. Do you think he would have made 1/10th of that playing wide receiver? Not to mention the risk of serious injury?
As if being a league average baseball player for 10 years was not basically every kid’s dream come true.
He’s got a lot of money, don’t think how you feel matters.
Almost 100mil dollars. Which was 80mil overpay. And he was a tight end. Like I said he has always been barely above average pitcher.
He was a two-time All-American wide receiver at Nore Dame. I remember watching the games. Google it.
And just because someone overpaid doesn’t mean he didn’t cash the check.
So you’re saying he should have not been a pitcher who made $100 million and gone into the NFL as a wide recei… er….. tight end I guess… where the average career is something around four seasons? That makes sense.
fansided.com/2018/03/01/why-jeff-samardzija-picked…
Samardzija would have been a 1st rd puck but agree with @jekporkibs. He’s made better money in baseball and kept his body intact
I’d play twelve years in the majors as the back up catcher to the back up catcher for the league minimum and die a happy man.
Attended 18 fantasy camps after I turned 40, And every day I put on that uniform in Fantasy Camp I wished, even for just one day, I would have had a chance to do it for real.
I’m sure Shark has no regrets.
Even being a 1st round pick WR, the odds of his being as good as he’s been in MLB are not great
As a league-average starter, Shark has been one of the 75 best starting pitchers on earth for the last 10 years. Not a lot of even 1st round WRs end up being full-time #1/2 WR for 10 years.
Anyone who thinks that Shark’s MLB career is some kind of failure or disappointment has a completely unrealistic viewpoint on athletic achievement. He has nothing to be ashamed of.
Samardzija threw 180 innings of 3.5 ball with a 1.1 whip and 117 era+. That is a solid number 3 on lots of teams. There is value there, especially if he keeps up that production and the Giants pay down some salary.
You’re right there is value. Specially if he gets anywhere close to 200 innings again
Samardzija is a poster child for the demise of the San Francisco Giants
Dude led the AL in home runs allowed in 2015 and those two buffoons Brian Sabean and Bobby Evans rewarded him with a 90 Million dollar contract.
The Shark is 35 and I’m still waiting for him to have a break out season
Lmao ain’t that the truth
Wouldn’t mind good ole Jeff as the Braves # 5 if we can work out a deal to where SF takes on some (not all) of his salary. I think that would be a solid # 5
I’m not alarmed that the Dodgers haven’t made a lot of moves, but I’d rather they just say that they feel they have the core of a great team and will make additions that make sense. But when they come out saying they’ve identified a dozen or so acquisition targets and are going to be in on all of the major free agents, and then either don’t make them an offer (Rendon) or make an offer that looks great but that they know has no chance of being accepted (Cole), it’s insulting to the fans. As a fan, I’m fine if they want to go to spring training and start the season with Urias, May and Gonsolin and see what they can do and they can make trades during the season if they need to, But wouldn’t mind another strong arm like Giles or Hader in the bullpen.
I think they were serious when they said this was an offseason where they were more likely to do something, because they were: the offer they made to Cole is by far larger than they’ve ever made any player, and I don’t think they expected Rendon to more or less tell them he wasn’t interested in signing with them.
I think they entered the offseason thinking this would be a great opportunity to pick up a big piece (in particular, Rendon, because they need successor to Justin Turner at some point, given his age and contract status). That didn’t come together, but I think they were serious about trying.
It’s pretty hard to know what they have/have not said they wanted to do. Who knows what the front office has said vs what writers have conjured up.
LAD offered 300 Million to Cole and Rendon was clear in his statements that he didn’t want to be a Dodger
The Dodgers have a top 5 farm system which positions them for a bunch of trade scenarios and front office decision makers that are the best and the brightest in the game.
LAD also is +3 WAR at virtually every position and just came off a 100+ win season.
There are not any real necessities as far as Adding talent. They lost Ryu but May’s projections are off the charts
There is nothing wrong with this team
Dodger fans need to move to Cincinnati or Miami or maybe even Seattle. Try following baseball there for a few years. Collectively, Dodger fans have become a whiny group of spoiled brats
The thing wrong with this team is they won 106 games in the regular season and two in the postseason. They were built for a marathon, but the postseason is a sprint. The ironic part of your comment is of the teams you mentioned only the Mariners have denied their fans a championship for longer than the Dodgers. The freaking Marlins with their puny fan base and clueless ownerships have won it twice in that time. So don’t try to argue as if the Dodgers are some small or mid-market team with marginal revenue and little to no fan support.
But your point about the freaking Marlins – which is true – confirms what many here have been posting: the better team doesn’t automatically win. Getting hot at the right time – and a few lucky breaks – go a long way in the playoffs.
As a Dodger fan, I’ll admit the ’88 team had no business winning the championship: both the Mets and As were superior teams. But Hershiser was other worldly hot and Mickey Hatcher – of all people – hit two HRs. Even Gibson admitted his HR was all hands and he didn’t think it had a chance. That’s baseball.
that gibson hr, if you watched the whole game, was the best moment in pro sports.
we were done. game was over. the best closer of his time was on the mound. we were out of freakin’ players. gibson could barely walk, the only reason lasorda called his # is ’cause there wasn’t 1 other damn player to go out there. it was either gibby, or lasorda would have had to waddle out there with a bat.
This notion that LAD lacks some sort of post season secret sauce is just dumb.
As has been stated before here a million times , the hot team wins in a short series. And there is a lot of luck involved.
In 2017 LAD played a terrific world series that went 7 games and could have gone either way. Houston won but once again it was close
2018 LAD had no business making the post season. That team got off to a franchise worst start. Suffered debilitating injuries, Kershaw, Turner , Jansen , Hill . They actually tied w/ Colorado for the NL West title and had to play a game 163 tie breaker. They advanced to the WS but were terribly outmatched by Boston
2019 Dodgers won 100+ games and took a hot nationals team to a game 5 in the NLDS and sported a late game lead. The bullpen fell apart and they lost the game. But that’s just the game. That’s just baseball. LAD will be exceptional next year.
Dodger fans have nothing to complain about
The issue is not our roster or the front office, it’s our manager. He makes the worst decisions despite having fantastic players. Case in point, brining in Kershaw last year against the Nats. We had just acquired lefty-killer Kolarek, a great move by the front office. But for some reason, Roberts put in Kershaw to give up not one, but two home runs to tie the game. You can’t put your team in this position, no matter how good the roster is. We won’t win a WS with Roberts as our skipper. So all of these chess moves to find a FA are futile.
Case in point? You, like many here, are bloody brilliant after the fact. I bet Roberts would have done it differently too had he known what you know – now..
This isn’t hindsight, everyone knew AT THE TIME, that it was a bad decision. Even a little league manager knows to take out his pitcher after giving up a home run on his first pitch in the 8th inning with a one run lead. There are countless examples of Roberts making bad postseason decisions, I don’t think you want to defend his record in the postseason.
Who hired that manager and gave him a long contract extension?
Sorry Jim but I have to agree with 88 – I was screaming at the screen when Kershaw started the 8th and was reduced to pleading after the Rendon HR. My sympathy for Kershaw getting set up by Roberts was so great I couldn’t even get angry after the Soto HR.
I got angry later when Roberts said afterward he wouldn’t do anything different if given the chance again.
Please. You can’t say ‘Everybody’ and even a ‘little league manager’; to prove your point. Tell me, what war the odds of Kershaw or a pitcher of his experience and skill, throwing back to back gopher ball on consecutive pitches especially after getting the last batter out in the 7th on 3 pitches?n And don’t use “there are countless examples” without naming them and comparing it to what other managers have done. Show the the success that other current managers have had accomplishing what Roberts has. Defend his record in the postseason. So it’s his bad calls that cost the Dodgers te past three years and not the players performances? He should have sat Bellenger and Seager down for a hotter bat. You’re a living source of cliches with no verifiable evidence. perfect for the democrat lead impeachment hearings as well.
Because Friedman, and anyone who uses facts and not emotion, thinks Roberts is a good manage
Why do people keep saying the window for the LAD is closing? Thats insane…while its tough to bank on prospects we no doubt have the best pool in the game, couple that with all these bad contracts coming off soon and having the best scouting dept around it makes no sense…… While harder to project id say we are set up better than anyone still 4-5 yrs down the line
Sign Donaldson already, They need someone in that dugout with some fire for Gods sake and he just happens to be a middle of the order right handed bat we have needed for quite some time
You know when the last Dodger championship occured ….. when we signed a guy who brought something even more needed than great on field play…. some God damn fire to the clubhouse……that guy was Kirk Gibson
By signing Donaldson and trading Joc (not needed) we would still be under the Lux tax with a little left to spend on some bullpen pieces all the while not trading any of our prospects
“………..there’s not actually a single thing Andrew Friedman can do that changes their odds of winning in any given season by a significant factor, ”
sure there is, dump roberts.
Amen JD! We have very little fire in our dugout. Guys need to hold each other accountable. Verdugo brings that passion, but he’s not a veteran. Roberts and lacking a leader is what’s holding this team back from winning a WS.
The funny thing is I think they are scared of Donaldsons personaility but imo I think it would be a blessing- I really think Donalson is being under-rated this off-season and will be the best value of any free agent signed- Our books are looking as clean as they have for decades, we can still get under the lux tax with the signing very easily, make the play LA keep the prospects and go out and get this guy hes cut from the same cloth as Gibby
JD is still a possibility, and it’s not hard to make the Gibby comp. For all of us that bleed Dodger Blue, it’s tough coming up short the way we have these past few years. I try to maintain gratitude in our Team’s long term outlook. As has been mentioned by many others (shoutout to Junts1 always on point), we have incredible depth, a young core on the rise, with a top farm system and financial flexibility. We’ve seen guys blocked in the past, and perhaps missing out on some of these Top End FA could end up being a blessing in disguise. I’m a firm believer in Lux and May and don’t wish to see them moved for anyone. Keibert’s star may have faded some, but guys with his skill set don’t fall off a tree. I’m also hearing quite a bit of noise about Miguel Vargas who could end up being a future stud at the hot corner, not to mention Hoese & Bush could further develop as IF. Building from within has worked thus far, and we’ve got guys like Belli winning MVP Hardware as a result. Buehler is a CYA candidate, and Urias could be an All Star this year. We certainly have it better than most, and couldn’t see wanting to trade places to secure a future of any other Franchise than our own.