6:35pm: The Dodgers have announced the signing.
9:45am: The Dodgers have reached a one-year deal with righty Jimmy Nelson, according to Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times (Twitter link). The contract includes a $1.25MM guarantee and the possibility of greater earnings, including a vesting/mutual option for another season, according to Castillo, Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter links), and MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy (Twitter links).
Nelson will reportedly be promised just $750K this year. But he’ll earn $1MM in incentives if he makes the Opening Day roster and $500K apiece if he remains on it for 45 and 90 days. Further incentives could also add $1.5MM to Nelson’s 2020 earnings.
As for the option, it will start out as a $2MM club option with a $500K buyout that makes up the remainder of the guaranteed cash. If Nelson throws sixty innings and/or makes forty appearances, it’ll convert to a $5MM mutual option. That price can reach as much as $9MM if Nelson throws 170 frames for Los Angeles in the coming season.
Once a foundational player in Milwaukee, Nelson was non-tendered by the Brewers in December when the club deemed his projected $3.7MM salary too steep. That decision came on the heels of two injury-ruined campaigns.
Nelson did get back on the hill in 2019 after missing the entirety of the prior season, but allowed 17 runs over 22 frames. While he racked up 26 strikeouts in that span but also coughed up 17 walks and four long balls.
It’s hard to know what to expect out of Nelson, who’s now thirty years of age. He exhibited a fairly significant velocity loss but still sat at around 93 mph in 2019. He dove in both first-strike rate (50.5%) and chase rate (23.6%), suggesting some reduction of command, pitch quality, and/or confidence. But Statcast still identified well-above-average spin on Nelson’s pitches.
It will be interesting to watch whether Nelson can return from the shoulder and elbow woes that derailed his career. It’s equally fascinating to see another upside pitching play from a Dodgers organization that has otherwise remained quiet this winter. While the club continues to explore major additions, it has yet to pull off a big strike this winter.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Really good low cost signing.
not really. I’m a brewers fan and he looked done. no zip on his fastball, threw more meat than a butcher, and looked lost.
He’s not the pitcher he used to be. However I don’t fault the dodgers for taking a low risk chance on him either. Pitchers ballpark so you never know.
Always love it when a fan has something to say because they were a fan of the team that most recently had a particular player. They say things like “he was throwing nothing but meat last year” and then you go look at his stats and see that he threw 22 innings and that the year before he waa pretty good. Just looks like the fan of the previous team rationalizing his team not resigning the player that landed somewhere else.
You’re just wrong pned. For a garaunteed $1.5 mil and incentives, the risk is low but the reward could be as high as getting the 2018 version of Nelson.
If the Dodgers get the 2018 version of Nelson they get to pay for a guy on the IL all season you must mean if they get the guy the pitched well 2 seasons ago. After losing most of 2 years and a big drop in velocity, the Dodgers have to hope he learns how to pitch and not just try to blow the ball by anyone like he used to. Time will tell if it was a good buy low deal or not.
To Salarycapmope: I always love when someone comes on here and criticizes someone, and their post makes many mistakes, regarding fact – like yours just did.
Next time try posting sober and use spell check.
The 2018 version of Nelson? I assume you meant 2017 because Nelson never threw a pitch in 2018 due to his injury recovery. I actually agree with both opinions I’ve read. I am a Brewers fan so I saw Nelson looking utterly lost last season. However, for a team with the Dodgers payroll taking a $1.5 million flier on him is nothing. If they can pull off some voodoo and get Nelson throwing like he was pre-injury, great. It not, no great monetary loss eating that contract.
jimmie always had command problems but the bigs are so sorry now you’ve got huys chasing pitches they couldn’t hit with 2 bats
It usually takes 6-9 months of live pitching for pitchers regain command and build strength. His fastball is only 2 mph off and with the spin rate and k rate consistent , he probably hasn’t lost much. It’s always a risk but i’d venture to say he’ll be pretty good if the arm ailments are behind him. He’s really only 28 since he basically took the last two years off and prior to that he was 8th in CY Young voting. Great gamble with little downside. I understand Brewers fans being sour but nice acquisition by LA
I’ve known and coached jimmie in little league and travel ball and middle school.
Jimmie is a head case and akways will be.
He mother is a rehab specialist and got him on ritalin so he could focus.
To me if you need a drug to focus as an aud then you shouldn’t be playing in the bigs
Nothing but upside with the Nelson signing. I don’t really expect he’ll return to his 2017 form any time soon, if ever, but for about a million bucks (Chump change in today’s landscape.), hey, why not?
The writer must be high. Nelson’s done put a fork in him
This is the big roster shake up according to Stan Kasten
smh what are we doing here…?
He must have turned down more lucrative offers from non-contenders. Can’t believe Seattle wouldn’t drop 3M on him.
Nelson, Walker, and Wood would all fit well with the Mariners on one year deals.
jimmie always had command problems but the bigs are so sorry now you’ve got huys chasing pitches they couldn’t hit with 2 bats
wow seems like a steal, what team wouldn’t want to take a shot for this little $$$
Any team with access to his medicals
Too bad, that was a non throwing, freak injury in the middle of a breakout season.
If anybody can get back from that shoulder injury, Jimmy Nelson has the best chance. If he does the Dodgers and the fans will love him.
I wish we’d have kept him here on that deal for those dollars & terms.
Jimmy Nelson is a turd. And now he’s LA’s turd
People who have never had a labrum injury have no idea what a career killer it is. Significantly worse than TJ. Significantly.
We’re talking about Nelson’s labrum not your torn labia.
jimmie always had command problems but the bigs are so sorry now you’ve got huys chasing pitches they couldn’t hit with 2 bats
Teams that have already picked up low risk high reward possibilities before this. It’s a good move but don’t make it sound so special. Every team does these deals.
“Just over” a million dollars is “just over” the Cubs 6-digit maximum pay rate.
I really hate fans who call their team cheap when they’re TOP FIVE IN PAYROLL. Idiot.
Im guessing he’s quoting the fact that the cubs are claiming broke all offseason and need to unload contracts which would most likely take them down from top 5 payroll and also they haven’t been mentioned in any free agent signings
You can’t just act like those contracts don’t count. The FO still has to pay them. Sure, take them away and their payroll would be much more friendly looking but they can’t do that. Hector is right. The Cubs are a top payroll in baseball. Cubs fans might have some gripes but cheap owners is not one of them. Many fans WISH their owners would spend the way the Rickets do. Complaining about them being cheap just makes that Cubs fan sound like a spoiled child.
Huge Angel homer here.
This is the first move that Eppler DIDNT make that doesn’t make sense to me. Unless he bags Wood and or Walker, he’s not even gambling.
If Eppler doesn’t get a bigger fish than this, then you are absolutely right. I realize the Angels like Sandoval (or is it Peters, they are both interchangeable to me), but neither should be penciled in as the 6th starter.
The Angels need to add Wood or Walker. Yes an ace is nice, but they NEED someone who has a chance to be good.
Sandoval has a much higher ceiling than Peters. He’s young, got his first taste of MLB action last year, and mostly held his own.
I hoping that they are so inconsequential in 2020 that I haven’t even paid much attention to them.
The Angels need to sign a sixth starter so they remain Plan “B” and not Plan “A”.
Sandoval is a good pitcher and offers more than peters in terms of upside. He and Suarez were a bit rushed up because all the injuries and death of skaggs.
Suarez was rushed, he wasn’t ready.
Although I’m a huge Angel fan, I really haven’t paid all that much attention to Sandoval. I’m hopeful the Angels are not going to pencil him is as the sixth starter. He’ll get PLENTY of opportunities to prove himself as the 7th starter.
If they put him in as the sixth starter, I’ll take a closer look. But I hope it doesn’t come to that.
Suarez has repeatedly said that Doug White got him away from what was working for him and over thinking on the hill. Yes, he was rushed, but he was also trying things out at the MLB level.
Get him back in AAA and let him get back to being himself.
Sandoval is back end of the rotation ready, but it would be nice if he was first man up in AAA instead of last man to make the MLB roster.
Lol why??? Angels have much better options. You are are a homer though give you that.
Hey, at least it isn’t as bad as the StewartnBuck drivel.
FFS. That’s a huge bargain.
Can Dave Roberts come out of retirement and be a player coach who pitch runs for him so he never has a base running mishap again?
Now THAT’S a big move!
Seattle selling the bag
Whoo, so Jimmy and Blake is our big offseason. (Sarcasm)
Does this mean Urias is now a bullpen arm?
Urias is still in the rotation.
Buehler
Kershaw
Urias
Then 2 of May, Gonsolin, Nelson, Stripling, Maeda. Or more likely, a trade.
Five pitchers for two slots at the bottom of the rotation (and I’d call May and Maeda virtual locks for them). Therein lies the question especially if Nelson wasn’t signed with the idea of using him in the bullpen.
Perhaps because it was a 750K dart throw. An opportunity for the thing they call “surplus value.” You like to give definitions of key words in economics, I shouldn’t have to define this one for you!
Yes, we know your snark goes up to 11. Try a new act. That one was born old.
I think this means this is their answer to any team that is demanding Lux in a trade. So, they low Ryu and essentially replace him with a guy with recent injury history? May and/or Gonsolin really must be good.
There is the possibility that the Dodgers will use him and his new shoulder as a BP arm moving forward. Limiting his innings to 60-70/season could allow him to get his velocity back up as well as keeping his work load down in an attempt to keep him healthy.
You have absolutely no idea how a labrum injury and repair works. None whatsoever.
The final piece to the puzzle. We are now the favorites to win it all.
I love Jimmy Nelson and so happy to see this. If we get 100 innings out of him, peachy.
Ha Ha! All these other suckers are paying hundreds of millions for top line SPs while the Dodgers spent 1 million for their big acquisition. $1 million and a NL West title or $350 million and a WS loss.
Suckers? Just because you’re broke and can’t afford a Starbucks iced coffee doesn’t mean that mlb owners are too.
Called sarcasm playboy.
Dodgers bargain hunting instead of trying to win a WS. This would be a smart move for a team in a transitional period.
Maybe this is LA’s attempt to improve their pen by using a guy who has been a good pitcher in the pen rather than as a starter to reduce work load. Will be interesting how things shake out.
Interesting move with little downside. I’m sure they’ll limit his innings somehow and give him a chance to succeed.
Brewer Fan and for the Dodgers it goes like this. You paid Nelson 1.25mil to be bad. Gotta make Opening day roster and stay on the roster for 90 days. If he does that you are staring at 1/3.25mil for 2020.. He’s not been a starter for 2 plus seasons now. You would have been very lucky if he starts more than 12 games next season. You’re probably looking at a bullpen guy these days that may make 3.125mil this season. Milwaukee probably lost out on a WS or two appearances by the injury Nelson sustained sliding back in to 1st….WTH is a Pitcher throwing to first with a Pitcher as a baserunner? Take a guy on the precipice of becoming a #1 starter to pitching 22innings total the next 2 seasons. Can another team be so cursed at winning a WS? The year the Brewers had Sabathia, Ben Sheets had to succomb to injury and miss out on the playoff run.
Missed the playoffs in 2017 by 1 game. Nelson missed the final 4 or 5 starts that season. Such a blow.
sounds like a butt hurt brewers fan. you had this ready to go to rip on whoever signed him. If he stayed in MKE Brewers fans would have been all over this site talking about how great he is.
IMO a very solid buy low guy, he hasn’t been healthy the last 2 years and a great bounce back candidate. Two years ago, he was the ace of the staff.
No, I think it’s rare for a Brewers fan to want him back. Chances are he’ll be a big nothing burger for the Dodgers.
Wish him the best of luck but he was horrible and lacked confidence last year with diminished stuff. No pitcher has come back from his injury before, let that sink in. But he technically made it back, I guess time will tell if he can regain anything. Like with Shaw, think Brewers fans were happy to see them move on.
Enrico, is this a legal bat?
I do not understand what you are trying to convey. This is the worst writing I’ve seen here. Please take your time. Use short concise sentences. Even if it is just “Nelson bad”.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but wasn’t he injured after taking too big a turn around first on a base hit, and attempting to beat a potential throw in from the outfield (its been so long, I don’t recall the specifics, but it seems like it was after a hit, not a throw over from the mound)?
At any rate, he should have known to not stray so far off the bag to avoid any throw at all.
As for brewer fans opinions..all I can say is being the team gave him 2 full years to come back from the injury before moving on, logic tells me what we saw in the final weeks of 2019 is as good as he’ll be going forward. Personally, I hope he figures something out and pitches well. Realistically, I just don’t see it happening.
One of the differences between the Dodgers and the Brewers is organizational depth. Nelson and Sheets getting injured severely hampered the Brewers’ chances, but if the Dodgers lose Nelson and even Kershaw (god forbid) to injury, there are guys like Stripling, Maeda, Urias, May, Gonsolin, etc etc to step in and not really miss a beat. This is why I’m a huge Friedman fan. Say what you want about being trigger-shy with the top free agents, but the Dodgers are eight or nine deep at SP, and two or three deep (or more) at every other position 2-9.
And you can add to that depth in prospects. The Dodgers can afford to trade away a huge talent and still have several more in their system.
Friedman has done an amazing job, using every angle and advantage to its fullest.
The problem is it’s a double edge sword. I like Friedman, and think he’s done an amazing job, but sometimes the depth coaxes the Dodgers into not always addressing their needs at the TDL, because they have so much depth. Next guy up works and is real for this team, and let’s not get it twisted this team is pretty stacked, but the next guy up isn’t necessarily ready for the playoff run which is a tough pill to swallow. It wasn’t just this year with injury issues I think he’s failed to capitalize on the somewhat minor, in nature, issues that get pretty exposed in the playoffs. And it’s not always the glitz and glamour moves, because he’s done a pretty good job on the offensive side bringing in somewhat superfluous pieces to protect for injury or major regression. That’s not always evident on the pitching side, as a whole.
VERY shrewd low risk move for the Dodgers. If Jimmy can’t make it back, he meets few incentives and the financial outlay is meager. However, there is upside in this pitcher. Thirty years old is not ancient and in 2017 he was electric. Yes, that injury may have taken its toll or maybe he needed more time, but why the heck not? If Nelson does reach that max incentives by going 170 innings plus that would give the Dodgers a middle rotation (or better) arm in the back end of their rotation. I am not banking on that, but it could happen. Outstanding move for LAD and I know Nelson was stated to not signing with anyone unless given a shot to start, which the Dodgers clearly will. This will be an interesting story to follow considering the pitching starved Brewers cut him loose.
But when you’re a big market team. You shouldn’t have to rely on low risk moves. Especially when it comes to finances. Friedman runs this team like he did the Rays and has been exposed multiple times now.
So they shouldn’t have signed Justin Turner and Max Muncy?
Let me as you this Darren? What is the alternative? Obviously the Dodgers have been kicking the tires on various bigger risk moves, but so far all we’ve seen is Lux has been the ask and that has been a non-starter for the Dodgers. The front of the Dodgers rotation is very good, then you have tremendous young pitcher like May in line for back end rotation duty as well as Nelson, who proved in 2017 he was very talented. NOW, does May get it done as a rookie? Does Nelson make it all the way back? Dunno, BUT if May is the pitcher the Dodgers think he can be and Nelson does make it back this could be the best rotation in baseball. Yes, there is risk, but you also have Urius, Stripling even Gonsolin in the mix. Dodgers have ton of pitching depth, they are trowing a bunch of various options on the wall to see what sticks. I have no issues with the moves personally.
So if it was up to you no Turner, Muncy, Taylor or Morrow over the years. Friedman hasn’t been exposed just you for being out of touch
Darren has never posted anything that’s made sense. Why would he start now?
Why do you care how much they pay him, or anybody else for that matter? How does that figure into any player’s usefulness on the roster? At best he’s another mid-rotation starter of the kind the Dodgers have in numbers already. On a minor league contract, or if they are thinking of him as a reliever, I could understand this signing. Otherwise all the “upside” in the world doesn’t explain it.
Seriously, dudes acting like it’s their money. No one remembers Brandon morrow?
If they are putting him on the Morrow plan I have no problem with the signing, but if they’re thinking of rehabilitating him as another starter for the bottom of the rotation it makes very little sense no matter how much they are paying him. From the structure of the deal it’s really unclear which direction it is meant to go.
BlueSky, I’d imagine that’ll be determined by how he looks in spring training and the first month of the season.
From what is said here about his contract, spring training is the make or break. It seems he will be released if he doesn’t make the opening day roster. My point is if he makes the roster as a starter, it means bumping someone out of the rotation, and I don’t see any good choices for who that would be. A minors deal would have been ideal for this player.
I would like to see a % of revenue rankings. Cheap is a relative word. Dodger’s spend 40% of revenue vs Red’s spending 60%. Those are not real numbers I just made them up but those numbers are the ones I would like to see. This is a solid sign, but one of those BIG trades need to happen, prospects are fun but a title is better.
Here you go, another Brandon McCarthy or Scott Kazmir or maybe Josh Beckett?
The money is hardly at that level
A project, at a inexpensive price.
I like more the suggestions here of middle relief.
Maeda, Stripling, Urias replacement mid-game.
I just see 1-6 innings from the above three, and we continue to focus on innings 5-8 depth.
Then there is Blake.
We shall see
Little irked that Stearns let Nelson walk, projected arb wasn’t that high, and it’s not like Milwaukee is flush with starting pitchers. 3m+ for a bounceback season wouldn’t have killed us.
They gave him 2 years to regain his old form. Id like to think if anyone knows what Nelson has or will have in the future, it’s the brewers front office and medical staff.
This is a good pick up. With a normal off-season and ST, he should be closer to normal instead of the mess he was last year.
Labrum issues, and especially posterior labrum issues are not a guarantee to come back from. It’s not like TJ surgery where guys eventually come back as strong or stronger, There’s a good chance he’ll never get back to even close to where he was pre-injury. His velo was down across the board last season and there’s reason to believe that the past labrum issue lead to the elbow problem he then had by the end of last season. It’s a low risk high reward move, but there’s no guarantee that another offseason means he’s going to come back any better than he was last year.
That’s true with labrum issues, but the fact is you can’t assess a player who’s coming back from shoulder issues until about 18-24 months after surgery. So yes another offseason would significantly help in the process, the effect of the labrum and juice he has in the arm should be evident this season.
Finally someone who gets it. Labrum repairs are not improvements..they are fixits. Career killing injury. Life altering repair.
Sometimes, not always. Ryu came back from labrum surgery. Like most injuries the likelihood of a return to health depends on the severity and the player.
Yes. Finally someone who gets it.
Good get for them if he makes the team.
Low risk, high reward deal here for LA. They will use him out of the pen. Not a bad gamble at all imo.
No, he wanted a opportunity to start.
He won’t get it LA. I’d be shocked if they signed him to be there #5
I’d argue the complete opposite especially since most fans know Urias, May, Maeda, (and even Gonsolin if he gets an opportunity to start) will be transitioning to the playoff pen. I’d argue he’ll see both roles pen/SP.
If all those names going into the bullpen in the postseason, who are the starters? Must be a player to be named later scenario.
High reward high risk
Great signing. Derek Lowe 2.0. Dodgers haven’t had a sinker baller in a while which hopefully Mr. Prior can “fix” Jimmy like Honeycutt has with so many low risk high reward potential pitchers. Now the team is set for spring. Major deadline trade for Lindor in July when Cleveland realizes they’re season is done *crossing fingers*.
I can’t believe the Dodgers got Nelson for such short money! I figured he would get $4-$5M guaranteed this year. This is a fantastic move by LA…almost zero risk with the potential for a huge return. This just goes to show why Friedman is one of the absolute best in all of baseball. Well done, Dodgers! I was hoping Boston would sign him.
He wasn’t going to make 5 million in arbitration and the Brewers nontendered him. He couldn’t throw a strike last year. That kind of guaranteed cash was never going to be on the table. He got himself a pretty decent incentives based deal though.
Good arm if he can return to his old form. If he’s any decent he could bump Maeda to the pen which would help things.
Maeda has already expressed his unhappiness with being bumped to the pen in September. Moving him there at the start of the season would make that situation much worse. They would probably have to trade him. That could happen anyway as a part of a larger deal, assuming anything is seriously in the works.
Or they work something out contractually. I’m sure part of his disappointment comes from the structure of his contract which highly incentivizes him to be a starter. If not all of his displeasure with the situation.
The money has to be a factor, but his pride is absolutely the driving factor. He was signed to be starter and that’s how he thinks of himself. When Maeda commented on this a couple months back, Friedman’s response was that the player needs to up his game if he expects to start next year. Considering his work is far from shabby already, that seemed like a really artless way to handle the situation, and couldn’t have done much to help the relationship. This is why I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he was traded.
I don’t really think there’s anything Kenta can do to avoid some time in the pen, short of, as the Dodgers told him ‘pitch better’. If you’re not one of the 3 best starters on a team, you’re gonna be relieving in October,. especially when you’ve already proven to be good at doing so.
Nelson’s very unlikely to contribute out of the starting rotation – I think that would require a miracle. The Dodgers’ upside here 2017 Brandon Morrow: oft-injured starter who had the stuff to be dominant takes his 2 best pitches and dominates for 50 relief innings without breaking for a year.
I’d be -very- surprised if Nelson is a starter for any significant part of the season; it would be one of the greatest injury recovery stories in MLB history if that happened. I doubt it is something they’re seriously hoping for.
I would not be totally surprised if they let Nelson start a game or two, whether spot-start or to prove to him that he’s not gonna succeed at it (and hasten his agreement to a bullpen role). They are gonna have a wide margin in the West, and will almost certainly spend low leverage innings on stuff like that, just like last summer when everyone was freaking out about all the relievers who were pitching poorly, despite the fact that none of those dudes made the playoff roster – got to see what you have.
Spot on. Agree with this entirely.
Maeda has been moved to the bullpen every September for the last three seasons. If you ask me that’s his beef, not how he’s used in October. Those moves cost him a lot of pay and while that might not be the main issue it can’t help being part of it.
The structure of Nelson’s contract doesn’t really support your argument that he isn’t at least hoping to become a part of the rotation since it includes a large bonus for pitching 170 innings. I know that doesn’t look very attainable, but there it is, just the same.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out, but I believe the over/under money is on him being released during spring training. It will be difficult to evaluate his readiness completely enough in just a few weeks to know whether it makes sense to exercise the option.
As for pitchers who made the postseason roster performing poorly, we saw that too.
I much rather have seen the Dodgers sign Alex Wood then this clown. I know he was a top of the rotation starter for the Brewers but if you check his stats, his career ERA is over 4.00. ERA isn’t always a good indicator but 4.00+ is not good. I would prefer they try to obtain another good bullpen arm (Hader, Garrett, Kela) and between the existing starters they have and a combination of Kenley, Treinen, Kelly and another bullpen arm, try to win that way. A top of the rotation guy such as Clevinger would be best but there simply aren’t many of those guys left that are available.
His career ERA is pushed up by his early career numbers before his breakout and due to pitching hurt last year. If he can return to be anywhere close to his 2017 form, this is an absolute bargain.
Alex Wood? Lol Follow baseball much?
You’d much rather have Hader than a reclamation project? What a hot take – give us more.
This guy sweats more than any human possibly can. He’ll love the ravine.
TMI.
Good little signing by the Dodgers. Nelson might wind up a decent reliever. Dodger Stadium always a good place to sign if you are a pitcher. Most of the time (sorry Joe Kelly). Although Kelly’s home numbers weren’t awful…
I think it was a mistake for the Brewers to let him go. $3.7M isn’t that expensive for a lottery ticket who could be a decent rotation piece if healthy or possibly even the ace the Brewers badly need if he can return all the way to his previous form.
Good signing for Dodgers
Love the guy and his story is haunting. He was just trying to navigate the bases like a position player, to be the ultimate competitor and team player, and boom career over.
Career is not over until it’s over. Well worth the risk.
One mans trash is another mans treasure I suppose
How bad is he if the Angels didn’t sign him?
The Angels aren’t really a team that can afford to take that’s chance which is why they’ve attacked innings eater, because they need innings and depth.
The Dodgers have 3 things the Angels don’t:
A significant margin in quality over their divisional competition (meaning more opportunity at the major league level to see what they have)
A better player development and analytics structure (which a player trying to restore his career is probably interested in)
An easy path to the playoffs and the opportunity to contribute to a competitive team
When players sign, people are always like ‘why didnt team X beat that?!’. Well, they might have. Maybe the player wanted to sign where they did. Maybe Nelson wants the advantages he gets from being a Dodger. Maybe Gerrit Cole wanted to be a Yankee. Maybe Anthony Rendon wanted to live in Orange County (though who does?)
Money is often a factor, but when money is even or close to even players make decisions on other factors. If you’re Nelson, and you think the Dodger PD and analytics staff is more likely to be able to help you return to relevance than another team, you might see the 2nd year option here as offering you more cash than a 3m contract for a team you have less confidence can get you right.
This offseason is filled with stories about how guys might have made more money elsewhere but wanted to play in a place: Wheeler in PHI, Bumgarner in ARI.
Teams are really good at figuring out what fair contracts are. That means the difference in the contract offers is less likely to be the deciding factor than the secondary considerations.
The most common answer to ‘why didnt team x sign player y?” is ‘player y preferred to play somewhere else for some reason’.
But I guess it’s easier to yell at the GM about that.
This definitely looks like a potential bullpen move. Considering he still had good velocity despite just coming back from a significant injury, it’s pretty reasonable to expect it to play up another tick in relief – plus better health on his side potentially.
Notably, according to several outlets teams said he also had all his old spin numbers. If he’s got most of his velocity and still has his pitch spin, then it’s just about helping him locate a couple of them to make a useful piece out of him.
And the Dodgers have the player development and analytics people to do that.
If hes bad, they pay him nothing and he doesn’t pitch
if he can find 2 of his 4 pitches, he’ll be a good reliever.
As Rian Watt said on Fangraphs, this signing has no downsides for the Dodgers because it’s structured that way. It is a lottery ticket with considerable upside (Nelson doesn’t have to bounce back to starter form to be a strong reliever, he just needs to find half his pitches).
Every good reliever is a failed starter.
This is exactly how the Dodgers found Brandon Morrow in 2017. Maybe Nelson isn’t the one that works out, but that’s why there are a bunch of them (Treinen, Ramos, etc). This one has more upside than most.
It seems like Dodger fans would really benefit from reading Passan’s piece at ESPN today about the Dodgers’ leverage and ability to wait and be opportunistic given how few teams are capable of helping the Red Sox and Cubs with their luxury tax problems or providing a worthwhile prospect haul for Lindor or Arenado. They have considerable advantages; they can just wait and take advantage. They’re not going to make an inferior move just to make the move faster.
Who ?
I know this is not the big splashy move Dodgers fans want to see, but this is a good low risk high reward signing. I think this will move Stripling to more of a SP, and Nelson be in long relief. This reminds me of the Morrow signing, and that worked out great!
It might be fine and low cost, but is this becoming the norm for the Dodgers? Signing low cost guys off the scrap heap and hope they come back? I mean I know they have had some success, but it’s hard to watch these signings when they could have signed Will Smith for $13 a year and locked down the end of the bullpen with Jansen. That was and is still their biggest need.
It has been the norm for many years now.
This is the norm for every team in baseball; it happens before every spring training. All sorts of dudes get opportunities to show they can still do it. The only thing that differentiates the Dodgers is that they’re generally more successful at finding guys who they can successfully turn around.
This is how baseball works, guys.
These kinds of signings have no relation to the big ones; they are independent of that, and they are guys with no guaranteed spot unless they perform; if they don’t, they get released or never called out of the minors in the first place.
There are very, very few relievers in the free agent market who are anything resembling a sure thing. Take a look at the Rockies big expensive bullpen sometime; relievers are extremely unpredictable, and you could sign the best 5 every offseason and still have a bullpen that sucks on a pretty regular basis. Reliever performance is extremely volatile.
Go look back through the ‘big name’ relievers who have signed in each of the past few offseasons and count how many of them have actually been worth it.
It’s less than half.
Sure, it’s normal for teams to sign reclamation projects, and I’d expect the Dodgers to do the same. I have no problem with it if they are also signing the free agents they could easily afford to sign. It’s doing the former without the latter that is being questioned.
Amen to that brother Sky.
There’s no guarantee signing guys to multi-year, large dollar contracts works either. Joe Kelly was not a monster signing but he wasn’t a reclamation attempt either. While it might be worth it yet, 2019 was not. Jansen was good for one year, maybe two, but the odds of him being the closer he was the last two years of his contract are slim. The LA front office does not believe in signening relievers to multi-year contracts and have done reasonably well betting on bounce back pitchers. So far I just can’t disagree with them.
So you see Roberts using Kershaw because he couldn’t count on the bullpen as a great and wonderful thing? Even though it bounced us right out of the postseason.