The White Sox have reached a deal with free agent reliever Steve Cishek, per Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (via Twitter). He’ll be guaranteed $6MM in the pact, which per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (Twitter link) includes his 2020 salary and a $750K buyout of a $6.75MM option.
It’s a move that reflects the shifting tides of Chicago’s two sides. Cishek had stabilized the Cubs’ pen for the past two years. With his former team pressing up against its budget ceiling, he’ll cross town to take up a late-inning role with a White Sox organization that is hopeful of a breakout 2020 campaign.
Cishek has sidearmed his way through an awful lot of good innings over ten seasons in the majors. He has worked to a 2.69 ERA in 556 total frames and never once finished a full season with an ERA over 3.58. Having picked up 132 saves along the way, Cishek is no stranger to high-leverage spots.
Can the South Siders expect more of the same? There are conflicting signs. Cishek’s strikeout rate has wavered over time; last year’s 10.5% K%-BB% was a personal low. But he still generated grounders on half of the balls put in play against him, limited the long ball nearly as well as ever (at least compared to the league average), and held opponents to a sub-.250 BABIP for the fourth-straight season. Statcast identified some good fortune (.285 wOBA-against; .313 xwOBA-against) but found that Cishek was elite at limiting hard contact (25.9%) and exit velo (84.5 mph).
It’s ultimately hard to argue with the results, even if they haven’t always quite been supported by the peripherals. Cishek doesn’t throw hard but generates lots of spin. He’s an unconventional pitcher who has proven consistently capable of befuddling MLB hitters. He’s unquestionably better against same-handed hitters, though that’s true of most hurlers.
Cishek may not on the upswing at 33 years of age. But he’s a nice get on a one-year deal. That suits the needs of a White Sox organization that wants to boost its immediate chances without risking too much future payroll space on veteran players.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Hey… I got one right, which means I’m now up to one.
Are you the 1% that missed on Wainwright? Lol
I am. I went for retirement. 🙁
No, Stan. That would be me 🙁
Jason, it’s very hard to get zero correct if you were trying. Maybe harder than winning the whole thing.
But to those paying attention, Abreu and Wainwright were the gimmes with Gardner and Odorizzi close behind.
I’m not sure I would put Odorizzi in that group. for those of us who foresaw what the starting pitching market would look like this off-season, his decision was no slam dunk. I’m sure if he could jump in a time machine he would make a different decision.
I’m with you mom. My ‘no-brainer’ picks in MLBTR contest were the four FA’s you mentioned which was especially appropriate for me. lol
I’m on a roll with this FA prediction. I’m up to 9 if you count Daniel Hudson.
White Sox Padres Braves will be the top 3 teams for the next decade. fight me
Padres? Lol
Padres are already screwing themselves for the long term.
They certainly are trying! Machado will bounce back and provide plenty of value. Hosmer and Myers on the other hand…ouch. I don’t think they’ll be any worse than they have been though, and in 3 years they’ll be off the books or in Hosmers case only making $13 a year smh
Underestimate the Reds at your own expense.
Angels offense will be elite for 6 years. I’d put them in there too.
Jays are in the bunch aswell imo
Agreed with Jays being there too
Dodgers
Now we are up to 5 top teams, without including the LAD, NYY, Washington, and maybe the RS.
Let’s face it, there’s gonna be 26 elite teams.
Angels are averse to good pitching, they won’t be good until they fix that problem
after I wrote this I was considering adding the Angels but their farm just isn’t that deep
Uh oh. The White Sox signed someone. Here come the butt hurt Cubs fans in 3… 2… 1…
Keep dreaming. Your new befuddled manager will make the wrong decision most of the time. He would make better decisions using a coin flip. 80 wins max
I’ll take the field vs those 5 teams. Prospects are prospects and most don’t pan out. Out of those 5, braves have best chance to be at the top followed by madden in LA. Rest of the group have no leadership.
White Sox are marlins w money. Marlins have no clue what their doing and white Sox have no clue so just throw a bunch of money around and hopes it pans out. Good luck w that. A few year back Detroit had like the best player at 3/4 positions w Verlander and scherzer and could barely win the central. White Sox are a very poor version of that in a very poor central division.
And padres will never catch the dodgers.
The last team isn’t even worth mentioning.
K.
You seem bitter, Les. All well in the Chesterfield home these days?
Good move for the Sox – happy to plug one of the few remaining gaps. I don’t think anyone thinks they are the 2011-14 Tigers (who went to the WS and won 3 playoff series), but they are definitely not the Marlins with money… silly take.
“Less” just loves his wittle cubbies and he can’t stand the fact that the White Sox are trending up and the Chubbies have trended down every year since 2016!!!
You’re right it sucks as a Cubs fan I hate to say that their window is already closed, I like the moves the White Sox have made I think they’re going to be a solid team
Cub fans like you are rare.
What did the White Sox win in 2016…….
Same prize the Cubs won from 1908 through 2015. In our lifetimes, both of our teams (I’m a Sox fan) have one ring. In ten years, if neither wins another one, it won’t matter whether that one ring came in 2005 or 2016. It’ll suck just the same that in our lifetimes, we’ve each only had one parade. So put that stupid argument to rest.
Don’t you wish Cubbies had signed Hayward to only a 1 year deal. They might have enough money now to waste on more land around the ballpark instead of players.
Les Chesterfield gettin lit up like a Quintana fastball rn
In a White Sox thread, Cubs still dominate the talk. Sounds about right.
Might be b/c there isn’t any threads for Clark the Cub to comment on ” crickets ” oh wait they did land an Asuaje today.
Wow what a most excellent and thoughtful analysis.
Les chesterfield with the clown talk. No offense to any angels fan out there but that pitching staff and lack of prospects will not equate to more success then the other teams mentioned.
Don’t count out the low budget A’s or Rays from this group. If healthy, the A’s young pitching staff could become elite over the next couple of years, and they have plenty of offense too. And Tampa does nothing but win…even with major roster churn each year. It will be nice to see a changing of the guard at the top!
Also, don’t count out the Yankees or Dodgers either. Both teams are setup very well for the next 3-5 years.
No need to fight. You got 1 right.
Why not Dodgers?
I wouldn’t say for a decade. Maybe for the first half.
Even if they hit on all prospects, White Sox and Padres are unlikely to retain a lot of their players, due to budgetary issues.
The White Sox are also going to need a significantly better job of drafting and developing players to maintain their competitive balance.
Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert, & Tim Anderson are all signed to low cost mid length contracts. Moncada, Giolito, Lopez,are going to be cheap for a while. Madrigal will be a rookie this year when he comes up.. There are some recoveries that have to happen, like Kopech, Rodon, but aside from Abreu, Encarnacion, Kuechel, and Grandal are older and their contracts aren’t terrible at all. So throw your budgetary issues straight out the window. Obviously, most prospects fail, players get hurt, players get old, but I don’t think you have any idea of the condition of anything concerning the White Sox. Bro.
Yet another terrible take by maximum velocity drinking the white Sox hateraid. Not only did you immediately loose credibility once talking about retaining players, given many white Sox players are locked up with options. They have a very flexible budget. Your only valid point is the ability to draft and develops, that remains to be seen as of now.
I agree, their track record of first round draft picks has been awful. Glad to see Anderson have such a nice year to feel a little better about that. But other than him and Rodon (when healthy, which unfortunately isn’t often), none of their first round picks had any value since Sale. It would be nice to see Madrigal help reverse that trend this year, and Vaughn at some point in the future.
Doesn’t look like it.
mlb.com/news/predicting-next-10-world-series-winne…
If Will Leitch says it, it must be true.
Any prediction that has the Marlins winning a title in the next decade has to be taken as a joke.
Preller is a horrible GM, it,s the scouts and front office that made the moves happen
Dodgers and Yankees and after Cubs sit out this year too save money, tv deal will send them to multiple trips to nlcs
White Sox, Padres, Braves…
Yeah.
But unfortunately the Yankees and Dodgers aren’t going anywhere.
The Rays, Twins, and Jays are all built for lasting success too.
I expect all those teams to be competitive most of the next 5-7 years.
wow red sox, couldnt match that offer? pathetic
That’s how strapped they are for cash and trying to avoid the luxury tax. Good reliever who wanted to play for them signed for a reasonable deal by another team.
Or they didn’t want to match. Cishek’s K/W last year was < 2.00.` and the RS have 6 RPs that had a better FIP last year.
Appears to have given up on fishing for a red sox offer…
Another day, another reliever the Phillies miss out on. I love this deal for the White Sox considering it’s only a one year with an option.
I’ve lost all hope in Matty Ice
Red Sox have left the chat
The Chicago cubs have given up the fight. They should have kept him. One more bad move from Epstein.
Mr. Rickets, you had us all fooled. Sell to someone that wants to win. This is a laugh out loud JOKE!
I hope you are joking. This dude was not good down the stretch for us. Towards the end of the season he couldn’t even find the strike zone anymore.
Had a pretty good September.
Overused and under appreciated.
150 innings with a sub 3 ERA, but he wasn’t good for the Cubs??? Well at least you have Kimbrel. LOLOLOL
#EpsteinDidn’tKillTheCubs
I don’t think they have enough to win the division this year but if I was a ChiSox fan I’d be very pleased with this offseason. Their near future looks very bright
smart
I’m surprised he’s not like “GET ME OUTTA CHICAGO!”
Why?
Why would he want out of Chicago?
The entire White Sox roster is a walking regression candidate. My goodness.
You think you’re smart, but alas you’re not.
Yeah, a group of very young super highly rated prospects are bound to regress, lol.
Steve Cishek isn’t a prospect.
Tim Anderson isn’t a prospect.
Yoan Moncada isn’t a prospect.
Aaron Bummer isn’t a prospect.
Evan Marshall isn’t a prospect.
Leury Garcia isn’t a prospect.
Gio Gonzalez isn’t a prospect.
White Sox have every reason to be glad their team is signing guys and attempting to improve. But they also shouldn’t be the least bit surprised when many of their guys who performed last year take small or even massive steps backwards in 2020.
Yeah, cuz they all could regress at the same time. Young players never get better—well, except for Giolito, Moncada and Anderson, right?
Some of them won’t regress. A lot of them will.
There may also be guys who aren’t the classic “regression candidates” who will also regress.
The guys I listed above are all considered regression candidates, and their projections for 2020 all reflect that status. All of them are projected, in one way or another, to be either a little worse or a lot worse in 2020.
I pointed this out to show that a lot of the excitement that is coming out of Chicago may get lost when Moncada isn’t hitting with a .406 BABIP, or when Steve Cishek isn’t outperforming his xFIP by 2 full runs.
Will all those projections be right? Of course not. But it’s pretty silly to look at a bunch of guys who look like they’ll regress and then just ignore statistical trends because you don’t like that it goes against your favorite team.
I notice you didn’t put Eloy in your projections. Could it be because he has a lot more projection to give in both BA and HR? Looking at increases in both of those. While Moncada is looking at a regression in BA, his HR and SB are both highly likely to go up.
Statistical trends show that Cishek has outpitched his xFIP by at least 1.5 runs each of the last 3 years… Seems like more than a coincidence at this point.
Moncada is obviously likely to regress from last years BABIP, but he rips the cover off the ball frequently, so I’d expect the home runs to go up.
He never said they would all regress
I don’t put Eloy Jimenez in my projections because he doesn’t project to be a regression candidate.
Could he regress? Of course he could. But I think he’ll be pretty stellar.
Despite what some of the triggered Sox fans on here think, I didn’t say everyone would regress.
Every team has players that will regress and others that will improve. If projections are your thing, between trades, signings, players returning from injury and minor league promotions the White Sox are projected to af more than 15 war to their 2020 roster per fangraphs. That’s currently more than any other team and a lot to be excited about.
How about players improving??? Marcus Semien went from a wRC+ of 97 in 2018 to 137 in 2019. BTW he was a “regression” candidate prior to last year. Some players may regress, some players will improve. It all reverts to the mean.
The term “regression” has become an empty calorie buzzword used by people who probably have regressed in whatever it is they do.
LOL. Literally. Comment of the day. 🙂
Yes. Or they were actually born with a ‘regression’ disability or raised by parents with one.
Literally and figuratively. All around good guy comment
I am going to say this again, FIP has become the WORST stat in baseball, and I’m a statistician who LOVES data. Anyone who looks at the equation knows that it is horribly imprecise.
(13*HR+3*(HBP+BB)-2*K)/IP
See anything missing? Um, hits allowed? Doubles, Triples? I get it, hits that stay in the field are removed to show fielding independence, but pitchers who give up a ton of doubles and triples, balls that hit the top of the wall or are ripped down the line, are not penalized at all, whereas someone who walks a bunch of batters but doesn’t strike out many, is.
Cishek’s FIP is going to be higher than his ERA because he doesn’t strike a ton of guys out, but because of his deception he gets a lot of weak contact. No regression expected, just a function of the kind of pitcher he is. Colome is similar with his cutter that misses the barrel a bunch.
The only true regression candidate to me is Tim Anderson, whose BABIP (another flawed stat because it doesn’t include hard hit rate) was exceptionally high and he won’t hit .335 again.
“See anything missing? Um, hits allowed?”
You LOVE statistics, but you can’t figure that one out? It’s called “Fielding Independent Pitching’, so of course hits won’t be allowed. Nor will doubles or triples.
Why is that? If you “love” stats, you’d understand this: because a pitcher cannot control what happens after the ball is hit into the field, for the most part. He can’t control if the center fielder takes a bad route to the ball, and thus a single turns into a triple.
FIP only controls the things a pitcher can control, for the most part, It’s not really a difficult concept, at all.
And his most favorable projections suggest a massive regression in 2020. But I’m sure a bunch of White Sox homers probably know more than the guys at Fangraphs. So go on.
Sour
You don’t read well, but blowhards who want to sound intelligent rarely do. I mentioned specifically that i understand why FIP is calculated the way it is and that it is fielding independent. I am calling it lazy to say if FIP is higher than ERA, then regression is expected. That’s simpleton logic and not nuanced enough. Some hits are a result of poor fielding, and there are a whole bunch of hits that a horrible pitcher gives up because he sucks, not because of bad defense.
Comments like this are used by folks who don’t like inconvenient points being made about their favorite teams.
The White Sox had 4 of the top 20 BABIP players in 2019. All four of them FAR exceeded their xBABIP and are almost bound to regress.
They also have several of the relievers with the largest ERA vs. xFIP variance.
There are years upon years of trends that suggest that what many of the Sox players did in 2019 was highly unsustainable, and are likely bound for regression years.
Also, none of this means that someone like Yoan Moncada will be a bad player. But a lot of his 2019 was propped up by a .406 BABIP.
If any team should know how ridiculous BABIP numbers are completely unsustainable, the team that watched Avisail Garcia hit .391 BABIP should understand this,
You also conveniently failed to point out that Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada and Eloy Jimenez each missed substantial time in 2019 due to an assortment of injuries. The first two might be open to some ‘regression’ in ‘average’ stats like BA and BABIP which could be made up in substantially higher accumulative numbers with better health as well as increased MLB experience. Each of those players may have gained WAR with some unsustainable metrics but how much potential WAR did they lose due to their time on the IL that cost them in terms of total production stats like hits, doubles, triples, HR’s, RBI’s and SB’s?
None of these players project as replacement level or even league average players so the time they missed not only hurt their individual numbers but also the team in terms of potential wins. The lack of victories in 2019 was less important in a rebuilding year but with the expectation that the White Sox will contend in 2020 that narrative changes drastically with better health from the trio.
BABIP… derp derp.. Um… FIP.. Babip!! Derp derp. People like you, who can’t understand that data and stats are not to be used in a vacuum, are the people who give statisticians a bad name.
“I read once that high babip=regression, so bingo!” Never mind.
Right, because Fangraphs, who has every guy I’ve listed above as significantly regressing probably has no idea what they are talking about.
It seems I pressed a nerve with White Sox fans. You guys get a little too worked up over a mediocre baseball team.
So all your genius above was regurgitated from fangraphs list? Shocker. 😉
Many are candidates… Again, you aren’t reading very well
You won the comment section!!!!!
Really? Because Eloy was injured a little last year and struggled after coming back. If anything, I expect him to get better. Lopez and Cease also struggled. With better repetition in his delivery and a better mindset, there’s no reason to think Giolito’s breakout was a fluke. Moncada is a former #1 overall prospect, so while perhaps a little regression from a super-high BABIP could happen, he could still put up about 5 WAR with a very well-rounded game. Anderson, I’ll grant, is due for regression. Abreu could experience some, but his OPS+ was about the same in 2019 as in 2018 EE keeps churning out significantly above average seasons. Keuchel and Gio may regress some, but they would still be loads better than the Sox’ #4 and #5 starters from last year, so I’m guessing all the negativity is either ignorance or jealousy.
Yes… god forbid Cishek regress from the 2.95 he posted last year to his career 2.69 average.
The dude’s xFIP was 2 full runs higher than his ERA last year.
His strikeout numbers plummeted to 2 strikes less per 9. His walk rate went up a half walk per nine.
If that’s not regression worthy, I don’t know what is.
What about the previous 9 years of his career? Do they count or is everybody solely what they where by cherry picked periphs from last year in a terrible usage situation?
Oh no, Cishek’s K/9 rate plummeted to two less K’s than the previous year — that’s a clear sign he is that guy going forward and only going downhill from there… I mean just look at his track on K/9 when his K rate drops —
14 – 11.6
15 – 7.8
16 – 10.7
17 – 8.3
18 – 10.0
19 – 8
Yep, if one thing is for certain, his K rate dropping one year is a clear indicator of how he will perform the next…
Okay, now do his BB/9 rate. Or his xFIP.
The point was, last year had a lot of things that really indicated 2020 was probably going to be worse for Cishek.
If we want, we could look at things like contact rates against, or pitch values. But I’m going to keep it simple so the White Sox fans in the room can try and keep up.
Steve Cishek’s career ERA is 2.69 and his career xFIP is 3.64 over 556 IP. Sure one of these days he will regress!
hahaha — his walk rates have gone up and down from year too –
2.1
3.1
4.1
2.8
2.9
4.4
3.0
2.8
3.6
4.1
so do his fip, whip era+ et al… but yeah keep thinking the numbers from last year tell you can predict what his numbers will be next year…
Sassy
In 20 years he’ll regress badly. All y’all be sorry then Party at mrbatewalker’s
He is not an overpowering strikeout pitcher. He pitches to contact. His groundball rate is over 55%. Plus in the last few years his hard contact rate against is low. As long as he keeps the ball down and in the park, he’ll be fine. BTW, spewing pitching metrics doesn’t make you any more knowledgeable than others who comment. If you look at the stats that you believe prove your argument, but ignore stats that disprove or hurt your argument, it looks like you’re just hating. Look at ALL the metrics, not just those that benefit you.
Every team has players that will regress and others that will improve. If projections are your thing, between trades, signings, players returning from injury and minor league promotions the White Sox are projected to add more than 15 war to their 2020 roster per fangraphs. That’s currently more than any other team and a lot to be excited about.
You sound a bit jealous. Things for your team might be going in the opposite direction?
Yes, I’m totally jealous of a team that has lost 189 games in 2 seasons.
What a fun offseason for our Sox – Obviously we’ll soon see just how good this team will be but this is the most excited ive been in years
Completely agree. We’re not in the same echelon as the Astros or Yankees yet, but I honestly believe they can contend for the division, especially if the Twins regress like I expect them to and they don’t somehow end up with Donaldson. The start of the season is too far away.
I find it funny how you expect the Twins to regress, but certainly not the White Sox.
Homerism is one hell of a drug.
Dude, you may have to change your name to mrdebbiedowner. Let fans be excited their team is making an effort and starting to look pretty good.
When guys who hit 7 HR’s the year before are hitting 33, yeah, I expect regression.
I do expect regression from some of the White Sox, too, most notably Tim Anderson. No way his BABIP holds near .400. Moncada might see a little offensive dip, too. But considering how many of their guys struggled last year, I don’t think many of them outperformed expectations, so no, I’m not expecting most of them to get worse.
Homerism. You dont say? As in 307 home runs by the Twins? Sure that’s sustainable
Anderson for certain… but Moncada CRUSHES the ball…. 4th highest exit velo I think…. the guy is supremely talented, he’s just as likely to take off into superstar territory than fall far off from what he was last year.
Even with Anderson, you have to take into account how fast he is and that he hits the ball on a line… his BABIP will def fall, prob a bit, but he will carry a higher than average BAPIP the next half decade given his speed, exit velo+low angle trajectory.
“I find it funny how you expect the Twins to regress, but certainly not the White Sox.”
You could literally switch Twins and White Sox and the comment would still be valid.
Right. I’m not a Twins fan. And yes, the Twins should expect a good dose of regression.
But when I said the White Sox should face it, the original commenter was one of many who got triggered by it.
You’re absolutely correct. You’re hatred for the Sox is evident on all your postings. Comments that have no supporting statistical data are just opinions. BTW Steamer projections have every Twins pitcher sporting ERAs and xFIPs between 4.5 and 5. Given that scenario, if the Twins win, they’ll be winning ugly. So yes, based on statistical projections, it will be difficult for the Twins to win 100 games.
The Birmingham Barons would contend in the AL Central.
Some might suggest the same for the Tennessee Smokies in the NL Central. Just saying…
This is a great pick up for the Sox and another joke that Epstein and the Rickets family played on the Cub fans. I’ll bet he has a lower ERA this year than 90% of the Cubs bullpen.
So you’re projecting all of the Cubs bullpen to have ERAs in the high 4’s? What a prediction.
better than carson fulmer
It will be an interesting spring camp for Carson Fulmer if he is still on the White Sox 40-man roster by then. Fulmer has no more option years left this coming season so he either makes the opening day roster or gets exposed to a waiver claim he is sure to receive as a former #1 Draft pick with no health issues.
Fulmer will be fighting for a role as the White Sox long man if he makes it to spring training in Glendale. It won’t be a surprise to see him in a trade or part of a bigger deal before opening day with the roster crunch the White Sox are facing in the wake of all their new acquisitions.
Aaron, I got news for you. Carson Fulmer is useless. Throw in the towel.
Dogbone, I have some news for you as well. With the Cubs unable to spend and their lack of pitching depth in the rotation and especially the bullpen, Fulmer would be a prime candidate to be claimed on waivers by your beloved if he even made it to them in the pecking order that has AL teams and clubs with poor W-L records getting first shot.
Fulmer would have a substantially better chance of cracking the Cubs opening day pitching staff than the White Sox as we each look at their current respective rosters. The Cubs couldn’t even afford to keep a productive arm like Steve Cishek at a reasonable salary but they shouldn’t have an issue taking on a MLB minimum arm like Fulmer in a trade or waiver claim.
I gave up on Fulmer his rookie year. Anyone watching that guy at any point in his career and expecting any kind of legitimate major league contribution is someone setting themself up for a disappointment.
No energy should be expended expecting anything positive from him. That way you cannot be disappointed and by somehow something good does happen, then you have yourself a free pleasant surprise
We both know that as a former and not too distant first round draft pick with zero health issues Fulmer will have many more opportunities to prove himself. His time may running out with the White Sox but as sure as rain is wet Fulmer will have chances with other clubs who feel that they can fix him.
It wasn’t as if Fulmer was a reach as the #8 pick in the first round of the 2015 June Draft. The man was not only a successful relief pitchers as a freshman but also the ace pitcher as a sophomore and junior on a Vanderbilt staff that also included Walker Buehler and went to two consecutive NCAA World Series finals, winning it all in 2014. They might have repeated that feat in 2015 but Fulmer didn’t have an opportunity to pitch in the last two games of the best of three series after defeating Virginia with 7.2 shutout innings in their game 1 victory. Unfortunately for the Commodores, fellow first round draft pick Walker had to depart with an arm injury in the top of the 4th inning of game 3 after allowing a tying 2-run HR. It turned out Walker suffered a TJ injury and had his surgery shortly after the Dodgers drafted him with the #24 pick in the first round of that same 2015 Draft.
We both know that as a former and not too distant first round draft pick with zero health issues Fulmer will have many more opportunities to prove himself. His time may running out with the White Sox but as sure as rain is wet Fulmer will have chances with other clubs who feel that they can fix him.
It wasn’t as if Fulmer was a reach as the #8 pick in the first round of the 2015 June Draft. The man was not only a successful relief pitchers as a freshman but also the ace pitcher as a sophomore and junior on a Vanderbilt staff that also included Walker Buehler and went to two consecutive NCAA World Series finals, winning it all in 2014. They might have repeated that feat in 2015 but Fulmer didn’t have an opportunity to pitch in the last two games of the best of three series after defeating Virginia with 7.2 shutout innings in their game 1 victory. Unfortunately for the Commodores, fellow first round draft pick Walker had to depart with an arm injury in the top of the 4th inning of game 3 after allowing a tying 2-run HR. It turned out Walker suffered a TJ injury and had his surgery shortly after the Dodgers drafted him with the #24 pick in the first round of that same 2015 Draft.
Note: The 2015 June Draft also featured one more Vanderbilt player in the first round, #1 overall pick SS Dansby Swanson by the Diamondbacks. Arizona trade Swanson to the Braves 6 months later along with CF Ender Inciarte in the infamous Shelby Miller deal.
Fulmer was done badly by the WS the same way Giolito was by the Nationals.
They messed with his mechanics, then rushed him to the major league roster. Bouncing him from rotation to bullpen and back didn’t help either.
They need to accept he is a bullpen arm with two pitches, and accept that he will probably blow out his arm at some point with his style of pitching. Let him be him.
Jet Sports Management selling Cishek services to the south side, now say that 5 times in a row.
Cub fan here. I like this addition for the White Sox. He would get lit up every so often as a Cub.
But for the most part pretty effective. Good signing Rick Hahn.
All you have to do is watch the first batter. If he can’t hit the plate, it’s time to yank him.
Too bad that’s not allowed next year, he’s probably going to have a very yo-yo year.
The new 3 batter rule really hurt his value.
He’s a veteran middle reliever and got a $6m contract that’s right in line with his last two… I fail to see where his value was hurt.
That rule is a joke. I hope the players shoot it down during next CBA session. If they want to speed up the game, use automated strike zone, shorten the decisions in the replay booth, only take 2 or 3 warm-up pitches from the mound (isn’t the pitcher already warmed up in the pen?), sing “Take Me Out To The Ballgame” uptempo.
Sox – good signing, pen needed a little help. Maybe they could sign Pat Neshak and complete the pair of rhyming sidewinders.
I like the spirit of the rule more than the exact implementation. I’d say a team can only have 3 total pitchers in an inning, barring injury, maybe only 2 if a different pitcher starts than last inning. And to prevent fake injuries, if you come out for an injury, you can’t be used for the next three days. If a team wants to use a LOOGY to start off an inning, that should be their call, but then they’re stuck with the next guy come what may for the rest of the inning.
I just don’t like rule changes that really mess with strategic managerial maneuvers. Having important moments in a game when a manager has to weigh matchup options versus burning through his bullpen (or bench) is an intriguing part of this game called baseball. Why the rush to get folks out of the stands a few minutes sooner? Does the game get in the way of the flow of the broadcast commercials? Play ball. Not bull.
Ok sorry, I’m an old school old man. Back to Cishek – a good signing. Aaron and others have already pointed out how deep the Sox pitching staff is becoming, and speculating on potential trades/DFAs. Whatever the next moves are, it is nice to see a third team stepping up in AL Central.
I hear you. I do get a little annoyed, though, when I tune into a Red Sox/Yankees game or a playoff game and the top of the 7th takes 35 minutes because there are 4 pitching changes. Yeah, I get that it hurts their ability to make moves later in the game and potentially in the next game, but it’s still annoying as a fan to have 70% of half an hour be just commercials. Plus, there are the hard-core fans like me who would get annoyed but watch anyway, the casual fans who might get annoyed and turn it off, and the “only watch during the playoffs” people who are even more likely to walk away unless it’s their team and it’s the league championship or WS. These moves are aimed at maintaining interest in the latter two fanbases, not in the hardcore fans. Besides, changing the rules changes the strategy; it doesn’t remove it altogether.
As for the AL Central, yeah, it ought to be a good race. If Cleveland keeps Lindor and Clevinger, I think they have to be the slight favorites, but any of the three could win and I wouldn’t be surprised.
That rule will impact relievers on every team. They’ll just have to adapt and adjust as I’m sure it will be worked on throughout spring training.
Not really… He’s more than just a righty specialist. His numbers against lefties have been serviceable at worst, which is more than you can say about almost all LOOGY’s vs righties. He’s not going to be affected any more than most good relievers and probably less so than all LOOGY’s.
Man I can’t wait for the season to start.
Well, he’s not Hudson or Harris, but a solid add nonetheless. Get one more BP arm, Rick, then let your excess starters go to the pen and fill in any remaining holes.
Now sign Nova!
He had a great 2nd half last season.
Start him occasionally or throw him in pen.
I’m not fooled by a great 2nd half. If he were a young guy, maybe, but a veteran is supposed to be more consistent. And they shouldn’t need another starter unless someone gets hurt. They have Giolito, Keuchel, Cease, Lopez, and Gio to start the year, with Rodon and Kopech coming in at some point, and possibly with Dunning joining them. Already, a couple of those guys will have to get bumped to the pen.
Gawd… forget Nova.
To a minor-league deal with no guarantee of opening-day roster spot?
Sure.
Risky. He was very lucky last year.
he outperforms his FIP every year.
I wasn’t going by FIP. Not sure why you’d assume I was.
Please, enlighten everybody.
Prior to 2017, Cishek outperformed his xFIP by 1 run just one year.
Since 2017, it’s been the following:
2017: 2.01 ERA, 3.66 xFIP (1.65 differential)
2018: 2.18, 3.91 (1.73)
2019: 2.95, 4.95 (2.00)
Over the past three seasons, he has gotten progressively worse in both his ERA and xFIP. So yes, he outperforms his xFIP every year. But when both factors are getting worse, wouldn’t it also be safe to say that he’s getting riskier?
Not to mention, Cishek’s 1st half versus his 2nd half in 2019 should cause a lot of pause:
First half: 2.75 ERA, 3.82 xFIP (1.07 differential)
Second half: 3.25 ERA, 6.77 xFIP (3.52 differential!!!)
He had a 7.67 xFIP in high leverage situations, and 8.06 xFIP with RISP.
I don’t know how White Sox fans don’t look at that and think anything other than the risk. But then again, the White Sox fan approach to stats is to ignore all the ones they don’t like.
1) I don’t care about what he did 4+ years ago. That’s really not relevant at all. The fact is that he has significantly out pitched his peripherals the last 3 years, which is a pretty good indicator that it’s not just “luck” or a coincidence.
2) “But when both factors are getting worse, wouldn’t it also be safe to say that he’s getting riskier?”
Yes. But it’d also be safe to say that he’s not going to blow up and pitch to a 5+ ERA like many (mostly Cubs fans) are trying to say. And for 1yr/~$7M, it’s really not that risky. Also, I’d recommend you go look at who he’s replacing if you want to judge how risky this move actually is…
3) “Not to mention, Cishek’s 1st half versus his 2nd half in 2019 should cause a lot of pause.”
You don’t think that had anything to do with his usage (over-useage) and the fact he appeared to be the only pitcher Joe Maddon trusted out of the bullpen over the last 2 years?
4) “He had a 7.67 xFIP in high leverage situations, and 8.06 xFIP with RISP.”
That is the only thing you’ve said that concerns me at all. That being said, the backend of the White Sox bullpen got the job done as well as anybody in baseball last year. Cishek isn’t going to be relied upon to close out games with Colome/Bummer back there (assuming Bummer’s turnaround was real), and he was significantly better in low-to-medium leverage situations; his ERA was 2+ runs lower in non-save situations last year. Yes, I understand that all high leverage situations aren’t save opportunities, but the fact is that despite what the projections say, the White Sox appear to have other guys in the back of the bullpen they can rely on if Cishek continues to struggle in those situations.
Despite what you probably think, I don’t believe everything they’ve done has been perfect, and I’m not one of the fans that expects them to legitimately contend next year. But no matter how you try to slice it, every move the White Sox have made this offseason has been an improvement to what they had last year. It wouldn’t surprise me if they sneak into the playoffs, but personally, I’m not counting on it until 2021. Either way, their success is going to rely on the young kids developing (and/or being traded for impact talent), not their free agent additions. They have ELITE talent all around the diamond, and if a few things go right, they’ll surprise quite a few people outside of the South Side. If somehow everything goes right (like with the Cubs in 2016), watch out.
Everything the Sox do is bad or risky to you. Get lost.
Not true. I liked the Grandal contract and had the Robert extension in my S.Machine offseason plan.(although I was $4mil. short on the peak value)
Dumpster divin’ Rick
JK, a solid move. I’m not a troll
And I am not a crook
The White Sox are likely not done with their additions. They still might add another reliever, a right-handed bat to pair with Nomar Mazara in RF along with a utility player. I’ve hit on 5 of their free agent signings thus far in the MLBTR Free Agent contest with two more of my picks still available in reliever Pedro Strop and RF Yasiel Puig. I have also been suggesting that veteran Ben Zobrist might be a good fit with the White Sox if he decides to play one more season rather than retire.
As it currently stands, the imminent Steve Cishek signing along with the still not officially confirmed deal for Edwin Encarnacion means the White Sox will need to trim two players from their currently full 40-man roster. There are a couple of players who could be DFA’d or perhaps Rick Hahn still has another trade up his sleeve this offseason. Adding any of those other 3 free agents along with a potential MLB contract extension for top 2B prospect Nick Madrigal would require further roster trimming. It will be interesting to see how the remainder of this offseason plays out in regards to the White Sox opening day active 26-man roster along with their 40-man reserve one.
My Cubsoxual friend Aaron wants the crooked hat of Strop & the new Nanny Zobrist ( b/c Mama’s got a squeezebox, Daddy doesn’t sleep at night ). When have you ever seen a team be successful with 2 crooked hat relievers Aaron ? We already have Colome. I love all the cubbie blues commenting on Maddon’s overuse of certain relievers, Theo didn’t give Joe hardly any effective relievers; who’d you want him to bring out of the pen. Flubs will never have another 5 year stretch of success like they just had for another 108 yrs & these clowns want to bash Joe. I am very optimistic for 2020 but i’m not fond of our lifelong Northshore cub fan GM Hahn signing far too many ex-cub castoffs. On paper Cishek is a good signing especially with our dreadful 2019 BP.
Decent signing. A lot like Colome, in that he outperforms peripherals.
Hopefully his FIP returns to normal.
Good signing for what’s available. Plus maybe they’ll have to DFA Covey to make room?
Another great signing. I’m a Cubs fan and he would have had better numbers for us last year too if he wasn’t forced into the role as the dominate arm in the pen. After Strop imploded that’s effectively how Maddon used him until the Kimbrel signing. That combined with the career high innings in 2018 is probably why he had a slight down year in 2019. I’m not sure what the full bullpen makeup is with the Sox but if he’s your 8th or even 7th inning guy then he’s likely to be solid. Bold Prediction: This may pave the way for 1-yr deal with Kintzler.
Feels like a gamble for someone with such a poor K/W.
Maybe, but their bullpen last year was feast or famine. Bummer and Colome were really good, but several of their guys were just flat awful. Cishek may or may not regress, but he should still be better than the dregs of their 2019 BP.
It’s almost like there’s more to pitching than just strikeouts and walks.
You would hope so, but alas, no. I took the universe of pitchers with 100 IPs or more, and ordered them by lowest K/W. That left 12 pitchers. Their average ERA was 4.74.
You can get more granular by including pitchers with > 50 IPs, but there are 53 of them. However, of those 53, 38 had ERAs of 4.50 or greater.
“I took the universe of pitchers with 100 IPs or more, and ordered them by lowest K/W. That left 12 pitchers.”
That doesn’t make any sense unless there were only 12 pitchers that threw 100+ innings… Based on my own number crunching, I believe you are talking about pitchers with a K/BB worse than 2.0? Feel free to correct me if I’m wrong though.
If you’re trying to argue that striking out guys and limiting walks is better than not striking out guys and limiting walks, you would be correct. Most pitchers that don’t strike out guys and walk a lot are bad at their job… That should be common sense. But you’re going to have to dig deeper than that if you want to find out why Cishek has consistently outperformed his peripherals and others haven’t. Hint: it’s not just luck. I’d recommend starting with quality of contact against.
How many of the guys in your study were elite at limiting hard contact and generating soft contact? Out of the 341 pitchers that threw over 50 innings last year, Cishek was #4 in both categories. Cishek had a Soft% of 25.3 and a Hard% of 27.0. Out of the 12 pitchers in your initial study with more than 100 innings, the closest comparable was Sandy Alcantara (and he wasn’t even close). He had a Soft% of 19.7 and a Hard% of 34.6. He had an ERA of 3.88, which was ~.70 points better than his FIP and ~1.3 points better than his xFIP.
Maybe I’m wrong, but I’d be willing to bet that if you expanded this and looked at the list of 53, most of the pitchers that out pitched their peripherals were the ones that limited hard contact and generated soft contact at high rates. If anything, the pitchers that did that and still had high BABIP’s are the ones I’d lean towards calling unlucky (or lucky for the ones with low BABIP’s and high quality of contact against).
Nice take with Steve Cishek. Even more importantly, Dallas Keuchel offers much the same to the White Sox rotation. Along with new catcher Yasmani Grandal and his superb pitch framing ability, this looks like a win-win-win for the White Sox in 2020.
Another good move. White Sox are pretty close to being ready, but still some questions. How quickly will Robert and Madrigal acclimate? It wouldn’t hurt if Lopez and Cease realized their awesome potential in 2020. Not to mention Kopech and Rodon both due back from TJS in 2020. It “feels’ like 2021 is the White Sox true coming out party, but with the quality veteran additions I suspect 2020 on the Southside of chicago will be very interesting.
Hey Klentak, thanks for letting another guy go by.
Good signing by the White Sox. Pretty descent deal for both sides. I like the option for 2021 if breaks down/performance declines. Cishek should be a reliable piece in the Sox bull pen as long he isn’t overworked like he was with the Cubs. Joe Maddon burnt this guy out by 2/3 rd’s into the past two seasons simply due to the fact he had few, in any reliable options out of the pen. BYW my prediction remains the same-Sox end up with 88 wins and take the AL Central It will be a battle between the Sox, Twins and Indians but the Sox previal.
At least 90 wins for the Sox!
Slow your roll, dude. I’m a huge White Sox fan and, while I think 90 is possible, I don’t think they’ll get “at least” 90. They’ve improved a lot, but one or two big injuries or LuBob not catching on like we expect or Kopech and Cease struggling could derail a promising year. There’s no doubt things are looking up and I fully expect them to have a winning season, maybe even contend for the division, but I put their floor at about 83 games, not 90.
I certainly like the direction that the WS are going. But outside of Giolito, there are a lot of high FIPs on the team. Some with talent, but they need a few of them (Kopech, Rodon, Cease) to step forward. I’m thinking 2021.
Agree. The starting staff will need a lot of run support, which I think they will get. It is going to be a fun year on the South Side.
People are still ignoring the talent on this team, mainly because they’re young, and “it’s the White Sox…”. They’ll see soon enough this roster is the real deal. If Cease finds his control, Kopech comes back 100% healthy, and the Sox somehow acquire Betts for RF, this may be the most talented team in baseball. Better than the Yankees, Dodgers, Nats and Braves. They’re only weakness is their youth (not a bad thing).
*their
I was mostly with you until you said better than the Yankees. No, just…no. And how are they acquiring Betts? What are they giving up for him. You’ve got a few ifs in there as well regarding the young starters.
The could sign Betts him as a free agent.
The Yankees hit home runs. They added Cole, but a solid pitching team that can score runs would be a problem for NY.
*An edit feature in the iOS app would be nice.
The Sox are going to crash and burn.
Agreed. Boston looking shaky.
Yeah, they’re going nowhere in 2020, no matter how good their offense is.
Cishek is a one or two batter pitcher…….new rule, with the third batter, he will pounce on him !
82-83 wins for the White Sox….need more !
$100MM+ in free agent contracts added, the top prospect in baseball locked up (and presumably promoted), plus a health Michael Kopech and you have them improving by 10 games? Really?
Ric Renteria is still the problem…….you know it……I know it…….and the baseball Gods know it !
Wish I could disagree. Ideal bench coach, especially for a latin heavy team like this… the big chair… still dubious.
I was wrong one time before tho, so wouldn’t mind being so for a second time finally.
Solid move for a solid team.
This is going to seem like an odd post, but here it goes.
The first thing I thought of when hearing about this signing is Fulmer’s one step closer to getting booted. I know, who cares, he’s been a turd so far, good riddance. I would have to think Hahn & Co. will make sure he’s dead to them before sending him down. I’m betting a team will dumpster dive and grab him on waivers if he gets sent down.
As the bullpen looks right now, it’s Colome, Herrera, Cishek, Bummer, Marshall, Fry, and probably Cordero as the sure things. That’s 7 right there, and that’s not taking into consideration what happens when Kopech finally lands on the roster. So at best, Fulmer’s the 13th man in the pitching staff, assuming he can fend off Ruiz, Covey, Hamilton (if he’s ready to go), Burdi (ditto), and…well, you get the idea.
Since he’s out of options, I’m sure they would want to give him that final chance to show he belongs in MLB. Then again, if he pitches like crap in ST, it might make Hahn’s decision easier to boot him. I suppose there’s a chance he clears waivers, because he’s been horrible, but I gotta believe some GM will take a chance on him during waivers.
I know, this article is about Cishek, not Fulmer. But Fulmer is affected by this move, even more if they decide to get one more arm in the pen before OD.
My guess is that he makes the team, unless Covey beats him out.
He can pitch multiple innings, and would probably not be used in high leverage situations.
I don’t think they will want to push Hamilton and Burdi, and Ruiz is nothing special.
Awesome signing. In a previous article I commented how he would look pretty good in the bullpen just because the experience and innings he could give them. Also has closing experience. Should help take the pressure off of some of the younger arms so they can thrive in lower leverage situations.
I wonder about something……..
Cubs released 2020 Cubs Bobbleheads images……..Lester, Rizzo. Bryant and Clark……but who is missing ?
Javier Baez !
Maybe Cubs can see they can get more top prospects if Baez was traded…..and his money went to Bryant !……
Maybe Baez is so well liked…..and maybe too over-rated, that Theo can get more with a Baez trade ……
so maybe Cubs Marketing Dept. says lets make Bryant and not make Baez bobblehead ….so the fans can accept the New Cubs Players who came in a Baez trade !
If Epstein truly wanted to build the Cubs of the future and rebuild now, then Baez, Rizzo, Schwarber, Bryant, and Contreras would all bring back nice prospects. They could maybe even move Lester, Quintana, and Darvish at the break!
I would rather Theo did this, than do absolutely nothing. I think Baez would get the most in return, then Contreras ,Bryant, Schwarber, and Rizzo.
Absolutely painful for fans now, but hey at least the team would have a ton of top prospects for the future and shave more than 100M off the books to load up on free agents next couple of years.
The one I would regret the most is Schwarber because I really don’t feel he has broken out yet. Dude could easily hit 50 homers!
I would have one of these trades attached with the condition that the other team has to pick up at least half of Heyward’s contract. You want Javy? Okay, but he comes with baggage…
One year of Quintana in this pitcher’s market is definitely still worth something. I’m not sure about Darvish b/c of his injury and contract.
Baez would be worth quite a lot but that would be committing to a huge rebuild.
A reloading makes more sense, like what the D-backs did last year. Mostly giving up on 2020 to restock the farm a bit. Trade Q and Bryant but keep the guys with more control.
Tell me again why Minny/Cleveland will finish over Chicago next year.
Well, Minny finished 28.5 ahead of the WS to start with.
Yep to bad they can’t carry that over
Right. And that matters this coming year how again?
They wont Mariano. Berrios, Odorizzi , etc.. along with an avg – below avg BP last year was an albatross for Minny & good luck mashing like the ’27 Yankees again in 2020. Tribe are sellers. There’s a bunch of good teams & teams on the cusp in dire need of S.P.ing that will offer Cleveland enough to trade Clevinger. And or Lindor and/or Jose Ramirez. ChiSox division winners in 2020!1!!!
why so cheap??? he prevents runs..the #1 goal as a pitcher . I dont care about any stat after that. great sign !
Agree, He’s the last of the decent FA relievers left. Everyone else sucks.
Another good move for the White Sox. it is getting harder and harder to put them down for their moves as they have been active and are improving their team this off-season. Cishek is a guy that is very effective when he isn’t working every day as Joe Maddon and the Cubs tended to do with him. I was hoping the Cubs would keep him, but the off-season of inactivity continues.
Another former Cub. I think that the Cubs and the Cards are in a staring contest. First team that signs a top 50 free agent loses.
Great guy. Always gave you a shot to win a game. Joe m used him till his arm fell off.
Cichek is an upgrade for the Sox. If used correctly he will flourish. Exciting times on the south side. Lots of choices next year for your gameday pick to click.
I know this has no bearing (directly, anyway) to Cishek, but I had nowhere else to bring this up. Looking on MLB.com, there’s a new stat they developed (sort of). Actually it’s the infielders’ version of Outs Above Average. If you’re interested at all, there’s a story on it on MLB.com. I’m not even going to attempt to BS my way into telling you how the stat is calculated.
These stats aren’t my thing, but I’m making an effort, so I’m not going to slam these stats anymore. Anyway, a few notes from this new stat developed by Baseball Savant.
Baez was #1 with 19 OAA, Arenado #2 with 17, Andrelton Simmons #3 with 16. Yoan was #31 in all MLB infielders with 5 OAA, Yolmer had 2, TA was -1, and Abreu was -3. Vlad Jr and Polanco were the worst infielders with -16 OAA, and Tatis and Gregorius were the 2 next worst at -13.
Team IF OAA: Cards were #1 with 42 OAA, Sox were #18 with 0, Miiny had -14 OAA, and the Pads were worst with -23 OAA. I was curious, the ’18 Sox were #20 with -6 OAA, and the ’17 Sox were #12 with 6 OAA.
If you were curious and didn’t already know, with the OF OAA, Eloy was 5th worst with -11 OAA, Mazara had 0, Leury had 2, and Engel had 6. Trout had -2 OAA. I assumed he was a better OF than that. Shows what I know.
Just thought I’d throw all this out there. Again, I am no expert whatsoever on these stats, so don’t kill the messenger. I’ll leave it up to you if you think this stat is another great revelation to the game or just another BS stat, but if you didn’t want to see all these stats, I’d suggest maybe getting some Visine and washing your eyes out.
Just to add a little extra:
In ’18, TA #30 in MLB IF OAA with 5, Abreu had -1, and Yoan was the worst in MLB with -14 OAA. What a difference a year and a position change will do for you.
In ’17, TA had 1 OAA, Abreu also had 1 OAA, and in his limited time, Yoan had -3.
According to OAA, Abreu is far from great, but far from the worst. Ditto for TA at SS. And obviously Yoan benefited greatly with the move to 3B.
Well those stats can’t be right. TA is the worst shortstop in the history of baseball according to many.
Whether they can contend will depend on their long relief as only Giolito is expected to still be pitching in the 7th in most of his starts. The team’s health history is always a concern especially with pitching but I don’t think any other team can boast the potential of 7 legit starters vying for 5 spots.
Hopefully the rotation can remain solid at least until the break when Rodon is expected back. Rodon dominated July, Aug of 2018 & earned his opening day start in 2019 with a decent Sept. The problems that started to surface that month couldn’t be ignored & he was shut down by May 2019. His 2018 success can best be linked to his location on high fastballs. After all that TJ rehab, those pitches should be enhanced with a bit more velocity. The team is figuring on about 13 starts from him in 2020 but control could be an issue. That’s typically tougher after TJ surgery & figures to be an issue for both Kopech & Cease too.
With Rodon you could always blame any inconsistency on his health. After a couple of bad starts in a row, Rodon would usually end up on the DL. That’s why if he stays healthy he should be able to go both long & stingy again & save the bullpen. The same can not be said for Lopez. He’ll domninate one night & then flub it the next two starts. It’s maddening to watch & makes you wonder if the bettors have gotten to him. I figure
after another offseason with Cooper he should at least improve & raise his dominant start totals. He should prove a bullpen saver too.
Were both Kopech & Cease injury flukes or did they push beyond their limits too often as starters? They might be better suited for long relief.
I don’t think it’s a stretch to say they will score 100 or more runs than 2019 & that should provide enough cushion for the pitching staff to push past 85W. That won’t be enough. They need to get as close to 95W as they can. They’ll need Lady Luck on their side.
Juan, Rodon should be #1 on the trade block or wait,hope & pray he has a good half season and trade him next offseason. Injured or healthy he cannot be counted on. Followed by TA7, trade him now after that huge season last yr and his pennies on the dollar contract. Lopez best suited for long relief. Kopech has a good shot at being a dominant #1 SP, never to be used outta the pen. Wait until he is 100% healthy and start him. Doubtful it takes more than 94 wins to take the division in 2020. We do not have 7 legit starters.