Remember when the Yankees were supposed to have one of the most dominant rotations in baseball? That didn’t last long. A couple months ago, they were set to boast a starting five of newly signed $324MM man Gerrit Cole, Luis Severino, James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka and J.A. Happ. The shine has come off to a significant extent since the team won the Cole derby in December, however.
Severino – who, like Cole, is among the game’s premier starters – won’t pitch at all in 2020 in the wake of Tuesday’s news that he’ll need Tommy John surgery. Even before then, the Yankees were already reeling from the fact that the oft-injured Paxton will miss a significant portion of the season as a result of back surgery. The diagnoses Severino and Paxton received this month make it all the more fortunate for the Yankees that they added a legitimate ace in Cole, but their rotation (which doesn’t have clear answers in the No. 4 and 5 spots) looks decidedly worse than it did just a couple weeks ago.
At this point, it may be too late for the Yankees to find impact replacements for Severino and/or Paxton in free agency or via the trade market. But to the Yankees’ credit, they’ve shown an ability to overcome injuries and even thrive in the recent past. They seemed to lose one key player after another because of health woes last season (Severino, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Dellin Betances, to name just a few), yet they still found a way to win 103 games, earn their first American League East title since 2012 and get to the last round of the AL playoffs. And the team always has the financial advantage over just about everyone else in the game, meaning it should be able to bolster its roster by way of an in-season trade(s) if needed.
For now, with the Yankees’ rotation looking so much less imposing than it did a little while ago, their best chance may be to win games by beating the opposition into submission with their offense. The club’s hope is that Judge and Stanton will actually stay healthy; DJ LeMahieu, Gary Sanchez, Gleyber Torres, Luke Voit and Brett Gardner will continue as quality complements; Miguel Andujar will bounce back from an injury-ruined season; and the likes of Gio Urshela, Mike Tauchman and Mike Ford won’t end up as one-hit wonders. A lot has to go right there, but if the Yankees’ offense does produce enough to give the team leads late in games, it’s in better shape than most with Aroldis Chapman, Zack Britton, Adam Ottavino, Chad Green and Tommy Kahnle comprising the majority of its bullpen.
As horribly as 2020 has already gone for the Yankees, they still look like the favorites in their division. The Rays are outstanding, but the PECOTA projections “only” peg them for 87 wins (12 fewer than the Yankees, though that was before they lost Severino). The Red Sox are quite talented, too, but they don’t look nearly as tough as they did before they traded their previous franchise player – right fielder Mookie Betts – as well as lefty David Price to the Dodgers a couple weeks. The Blue Jays have definitely taken steps forward since last season ended, but they don’t appear to be in the Yankees’ class right now, and the Orioles are, well, bad. So, even despite the hardships the Yankees are facing as they head into a new season, they still have the makings of a playoff team. However, with no Severino at all and a limited amount of Paxton innings, just how formidable do you think they’ll be?
(Poll link for app users)
How many Yankees wins do you expect?
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91-95 33% (3,844)
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96-100 33% (3,781)
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101 or more 16% (1,892)
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86-90 12% (1,406)
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85 or fewer 5% (582)
Total votes: 11,505
A Toronto fan, tough loss/sad to see an injury to an exciting pitcher.
However, I don’t underestimate NY’s depth and they should be alright along with their powerful offense.
Yeah pretty much my exact thoughts here. As a Sox fan I love seeing the Yankees have to solve a problem but hate seeing any player being shelved to injury.
Xactly Dynamite!
Yeah exactly man, I don’t mind some Yankees players being shelved, but sevi can genuinely be filthy making a fun game to watch, will definitely be missed.. again.
Come October that offense will shrivel up faster than George in the pool.
Like a frightened turtle.
I’m a Phillies fan and I was debating between 101+ (where they were last year) and 96-100. I went with the 101+ because they didn’t have Severino last year for much of the season and now they’ve added Cole and Boston is going to be weaker. Always hate to see someone get injured though.
Who said under 85 wins
Probably MetsFan22
I said 91-95 I honestly see 90-93 bc of the weak division
How does a weak division mean less wins for the Yankees?
Never mind, so you’re saying you see 90-93 wins but picked 91-95 because that was closest to your prediction. Right?
I said 91-95 as well but this could easily turn disastrous now for the Yankees. Maintaining the bullpens health and quality for 162 games with a rotation that’s thin on innings is not going to be easy. The talent is there for sure, but we’ve seen even the best bullpens deteriorate from being overused.
I have no doubt the lineup will mash when healthy but they will need to make some moves for depth and resting guys to make sure they get through the season. Cole, Chapman, or Judge go down and it’s going to be a .500 season at this point with no additional moves.
I like cranberry juice
Me. Wanna make something out of it?
Who!!!! Who will not wear the ribbon????!!!!
All that matters is we all know they’re still not better than Houston!!!
m.youtube.com/watch?v=PFtvgjHze4Y
The Astros have to cheat to beat the Yankees.
Didn’t have to last year or the year before…
They sure did…. and still lost at the end. Many years to perfect their cheating and only won 1 championship? Wow, that’s an organizational failure in and of itself!
Guess you forgot they cheated every year since 2017 lol
Or 2015 (and everyone knows they didn’t cheat in 2018 or 2019)
@Mick The astros got the system from the Yankees when Beltran came over, so what does that say about the Yankees? They have been cheating longer, and have zero championships to show for it. Talk about organizational failure. They can’t even win while cheating.
Let’s see how they do without their garbage cans and their buzzers first
They became better than Houston the moment they signed Cole.
People who didn’t see the Yanks last year. I think we’re still probably going to win the WS.
It’s hard to repeat that luck. It’s not like Ford was a top 100 prospect. He was undrafted. Voit and Andujar went through tough injuries and rehabs. Stanton can never stay healthy. They aren’t likely going to have a bunch of table scrap type of players get hot at the right times like last season. It generally doesn’t repeat.
The AL I think is going to be very competitive and will almost definitely face the Dodgers. Even the Red Sox still have Chris Sale, Devers, Boegaerts, Benintendi, eventually Verdugo, etc. Dalbec, Mata, Houck are all curveballs that could help the Sox in 2020 at some point. They aren’t winning a world series, but they aren’t going to be walked over either and have nothing to lose. The Astros are still loaded with talent that will be playing with a chip on their shoulder after being labeled fake champs and cheaters. The Rangers showed real potential last season. The Twins still have a pretty solid team.
I don’t think I’d be calling for a Yankees World Series.
451 Bostonians who are really hopefull!!!
It is hard to imagine there’s a few people out there who think they will win less than 85 games. They were at 102.5 on the line yesterday.
Lmao. No. That rotation, health issues, and a number of sophomore slump candidates. That division is still too tough to call it another walk in the park.
Did you see last year? They won 103 games without half their stars. I’d like to see another team do that.
Dude calm down….. the division had 3 teams with AAA pitching… and the only team with pitching (rays) had a bad offense…
Yankees probably don’t make playoffs last year in NL east and finish in the middle of Nats and Mets..
Mets Nats and especially Braves could have finished with 103 wins in that division last year..
Germaine and Severino are home grown good. Proof The Yankee system produces good. Expect more, win a lot with young arms.
“Germaine” was aquired from the Marlins, not home grown
You do realize that means this team has 2 Qs from the same spot- health of their stars, and will those replacements actually live up to their 2019 without a juiced ball
I said 91-95, but they’re another big injury away from being in some trouble
The Yankees kept throwing in guys that somehow produced at the same level as the injured players they replaced.
They aren’t somehow better than what they were last year getting those players back. Somehow the production was replaced, but I wouldn’t count on the same thing happening again.
Mets are a 4th place team in the AL East. Reality check.
German will be our until June due to his domestic violence suspension. The Yankees will hope that Montgomery— healthy and good to go after TJ surgery in ‘18– and either Garcia or Schmidt (rising rapidly thru the farm system) picking up
Some of the load. Cash’s best move after signing Cole, might well be not trading Happ.
Please, you must be smoking rocks.
What they did last year was incredible. No doubt. But you sound like Red Sox fans when JBJ hit like .500 for a bit while filling in and everyone was like wow what if he repeats that next year?!
1) Yankees aren’t sure at this point what they have in Andujar and Voit. They could be simply bench bats. They couldn’t trade either for anything of value when they tried.
2) Urshela came out of nowhere. Regression is almost certain.
3) Stanton can’t ever stay healthy.
4) Judge can’t stay healthy it seems either and looks more like a 100 game 30 home run bat then a 160 game 50 home run bat. 27 in back to back seasons of 100-115 games.
5) Gardner just keeps getting older and is not going to have a .829 OPS again.
This is a very odd team who’s floor is 80 wins and ceiling is 100 wins. While I personally see them finishing in the 90-95 range, I can see how people can pick almost any of these ranges. I don’t think everything questionable I listed above and more will happen, but if it does they’d fall easily into the 80-85 win bracket.
The other team that fits a similar profile at this point is the Atlanta Braves.
It’s called Brian Cashman knows what he’s doing. Luke Voit is the most jacked he’s ever been. Andujar looks to be returning to 2018 style so far this spring. I highly doubt Urshela shows no sign of regression in spring training so far. you’re right, Stanton does seem to be injured a lot, but Judge has a good chance of bouncing back this season. Gardy just had his best year yet and very well could get that .829 OPS again. The Yanks aren’t an odd team, they’re just a super skilled team with skilled backups.
Very skilled. Projections are good for Andujar and Urshela and the fact that post-Severino injury, the over/under on Yankees wins is 99.5 for this season shows that many people expect big things. For me, much like the 2019 Red Sox, too much had to go right to overlook the fact that we had no bullpen. For the Yankees, that’s now the rotation. Some things went a little wrong and that bullpen really emphasized that it was going to be a long year.
To me, the Yankees find themselves in a similar place after the Paxton and Severino injuries. They need a lot to go right on offense and in the bullpen to overshadow a weak rotation. The point wasn’t that everything I said above would go wrong, but that any 1 of them could have a larger then expected impact, given the situation. The offense and bullpen are definitely capable of overshadowing it. They could add a big arm at the deadline and roar their way to the finish line. Just as it stands right now, I’d be more worried that 1 of 10 things could go wrong then expecting all will go as planned. This is baseball. 162 games. Nothing ever goes according to plan. They will be an exciting team to watch, no matter what. Yanks fans should be pumped!
I say 97 wins
I don’t know remember it being one of the most dominant in baseball but for once serviceable in the post season.
Tampa has a clear track to make a run at that division this year. Yankees should be searching for more depth at this point. Happ needs to be able to hold a rotation spot for them to have a chance. Speedy recovery Severino.
97-65
They’re gonna go 162-0…
Mike Tauchman for MVP!
OPS+ of 300.
Over 100!
They are winning 90+ as the Red Sox and Orioles are dumpster fires. The offense is going to bash it’s way to a lot of victories. I still think they are in a dog fight with Tampa. Tampa’s 1 – 5 in the rotation can be very good and they have a solid offense.
Mentioning the Red Sox in the same sentence as the Orioles is ridiculous. Dumpster fires don’t usually have guys as talented as JDM, Sale, Devers and Bogey to name a few.
Go get Jason Vargas , that’d be fun to watch . But seriously they should acquire somebody , Mathew Boyd or Jon Grey , maybe Carlos Martinez ,
I’m going to say there’s going to be some Quintana talk with the Yankees
I’ve been toying with the idea of Yu Darvish in pinstripes and I sort of like it..
The Evil Empire still has a very strong team, no matter who is hurt. They still will steamroll over every other team in its path.
Still a 96+ win team. As a baseball fan in general, I hope Cole avoids the injury bug and doesn’t listen to anyone in their pitching department. They must be doing something terribly wrong considering the amount of injuries they have had in the last 2 years.
They have a great bullpen, great hitting, smart people in charge,and a lot of FKN money. They will be fine. And I hate the Yankees. Wish my team was in such bad shape.
As an Astros fan, who loves Cole, I’d be concerned about him not having Strom anymore as a pitching coach. Talent is huge, but didn’t get to that level until he came to Houston.
Strom is the best pitching coach in the bigs. Cole would have learned a lot from him and I am sure will incorporate a lot of what he learned going forward. I would also be concerned about him throwing to Sanchez vs Maldonado/Chirinos.
You should ask Trevor Bauer how he magically improved with the Astros. Lmao
I agree.. What the hell is going on.. Not only pitchers getting Tommy John too.. Hicks and Didi got it dont forget. Gleyber did too, but that was because he slid head first into home.
The only thing they are doing wrong is asking their pitchers to pitch hard, which literally every organization does. Biologically, the force of pitching puts enough strain on the elbow ligaments to tear them, and when that happens a Tommy John surgery is needed. the only real prevention is to throw slower, which would make the pitcher less effective.
I think the Yankees pitching is just as questionable as the Rays offense. Everybody is counting out the Sox and Blue Jays but I wouldn’t be surprised if either contend. The Orioles are the only team you can reasonably count out.
Go trade Andujar for a Pitcher
Can we please have 16 straight articles about the yankees? Thank you.
17 now with Brett Gardner’s restraining order.
This is a huge loss. There in trouble enough to look at trade options come July. That’s for Sure.
Yeah, losing Sevy for the season hurts but it’s not a “Huge loss.” If Gerrit Cole went down, that would be a “Huge loss”
Got me there. But the numbers Sevy put up a few years back. Not having a number 1 type as your number 2. Hurts the Yanks. As they always need starting pitching.
Don’t wish injuries on anyone. Maybe they try the opener a few iTunes through the rotation? In any event, Yanks will find a way to win 95+ and all you Yanks fans will remind us of all the injuries they overcame next offseason.
Uhgg
What time will ESPN be airing the 2 hour special
.”Yankees 2020 A team in a major crisis”???
With expert analysis from a esteem expert panel
Including Aaron Boone,Daniel Boone,Joe Posada,Hector Camacho and ” Slippery” The Wonder feel
Moderated by Art Fern
Never. The Yanks will need to lose Gerrit Cole, Gleyber Torres, and DJ Lemahieu first.
I said 96 – 100 because I had them winning around 110 with full health on everybody, but now with Paxton out a little bit and Severino out for the year they’ll go down a bit. And tbh, I don’t think that Cole will be as good (like maybe a 3.3 era with a 1.1 whip and 230 k’s) without a co-ace to keep pace with (plus pitching in Yankee Stadium). Urshela will be around an .800 ops, still good, but not an all star caliber guy. I expect Stanton to have a huge season though, like top 3 in MVP huge. In fact, I think him and Judge will both be top 10 in MVP voting. So, all in all, I see the offense carrying this team heavily, as per usual, and then Chapman shutting the door very effectively every night. So, they are still great, but just 96 – 100.
In that band box your probably right on Cole. Not sure of the different dimensions for each park he played at, but I expect a few more homers off of him. I peg him around 3 era.
I respect your analysis but I think Yankees are getting overrated. The AL East was horrible last year.. the Mets Nats and Braves would have won 100 games too in my opinion. Phillies would win like 95 too. The Yankees could have finished 3rd of 4th in NL east last year.
I still peg the Yankees to win the division if Stanton and Judge stay healthy. I see 90+ wins. Along with a return of Paxton. If it’s another injury pegged season watch out for Tampa.
I think yanks win division too… I don’t see “ring 28”
I never like talking about guessing who’s going to win it all! Lol. Me being a Giants fan and all, no pegged them for 3 of them over the Rangers, especially the Tigers, and KC. It’s the least likely to win that sometimes!
We’ve heard that several times now. Just sayin’.
You’ve heard what?
Braves played last postseason like they didn’t belong, and they did everything possible to lose to St Louis. That’s what above average teams will do against good teams. Philly implodes every year and the Mets with that great pitching staff can’t make the playoffs. The Nats up until 2019 were the Oakland A’s of the NL.
The AL East has been, in the last 25 years, either the toughest division or darn close to it. Can’t say that about the NL East.
Man, did he not get fully checked last year? I just want to keep thinking that this should’ve been addressed last year unless it’s a new problem. This hurts the Yankees rotation, an exciting one at that. We have Cueto and the Shark if your feeling froggy! Lol
Let the excuses begin…
Yes because they excused there way to a 100+ wins last year, and every team has lost its #2 and #3 pitchers already. Nothing to see here. Yes, thank you.
“Those cheating Astros…., Whaaaa, The cheating Red Sox… Whaaa… but, but, but, we had the most players ever on the IR… even though this is the first year of the IR… boo hoo hoo.”
Yes, you’re welcome.
Never underestimate the POWER of the dark side.
Fangraphs has the Yankees at 93 wins btw.
89 wins for the Yankees this year while failing to make the playoffs. AL West will take over the wilcard spots. Watch the Mariners bump the Yankees out of the final wildcard at the end of the season Lmao
I put the Yankees at 91-95 wins. The team in this division that’s going to win 100 games is Tampa.
Yankees enter the season with Tanaka and Happ as their number 2 and 3… they will sign CC in 3… 2… 1…
I think ZIPS only had Severino pitching 120 IP this year so this should affect their projections THAT much
Before discussing their rotation outlook, one needs to remember that Tanaka is trash and that Severino should have been Pedro Martinez 3 years ago except for the fact that Larry Rotschild is garbage as a pitching coach.
Boo hoo poor yankees. Cry me a river.
They’ll hit you a river of homers.
Half the AL already mailed the season in. yanks are great against teams those teams that can’t pitch, hit, or both. They’ll be fine in the regular season. Playoffs are a different animal. Their roster construction is not conducive to playoff success.
93-69 ALDS loss
Other than Cole their rotation is trash. I mean Tanaka is a solid #2. After that they have nothing.
Have you seen Happ this spring? he’s gotten better this offseason and looks to be returning to form. Montgomery and Loaisiga have also been unhitable. King looks really good. Garcia is starting against Atlanta tomorrow so we can see what he’s got. I wouldn’t call the Yanks rotation completely trash yet.