To say it was a low-spending winter for the Indians would be an understatement. They largely stayed away from doling out guaranteed contracts, but the one-year, $1.5MM pact they handed outfielder Domingo Santana was among the few. The Indians are hoping Santana can turn the clock back a couple seasons and help them reclaim the American League Central from the reigning division champion Twins. If there is a season in 2020, Santana figures to at least open it as a prominent member of the Indians’ lineup.
In the event that the Indians get something resembling the 2017 version of Santana, it’ll go down as one of the shrewdest bargain signings of the offseason. As a member of the Brewers that year, Santana batted .278/.371/.505 (127 wRC+) with 30 home runs, 15 stolen bases and 3.3 fWAR in 607 plate appearances. Santana crashed to earth the next year, though, and the Brewers traded him to the Mariners during the ensuing offseason.
At first, the Santana pickup looked like a wise move by the Mariners. Santana was an effective offensive player during the first half of the season, but thanks in part to a nagging right elbow injury, his production tanked from July onward. Santana wound up posting a .253/.329/.441 line (good for a 107 wRC+) with 21 homers and eight steals over 507 PA. That’s not going to cut it for someone who was inept in the field, where he accounted for a horrific minus-16 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-16.1 Ultimate Zone Rating. Santana’s defensive troubles helped overshadow his passable performance at the plate, rendering him a replacement-level player (0.0 fWAR). As a result, the Mariners non-tendered Santana during the winter in lieu of paying him a projected $4.4MM in arbitration.
Based on the numbers he put up from 2018-19, Santana’s days as an impact contributor could be over. And he didn’t help himself during spring training before it shut down, collecting twice as many strikeouts as hits (10 to five) in an admittedly small sample size consisting of 25 trips to the plate. That said, there may be at least some hope for a revival on the offensive side. As mentioned, Santana’s elbow failed him in 2019 and had a hand in his horrid second-half output, so staying healthy this year would bode well for a rebound. Plus, it’s worth noting that Santana fared rather nicely in multiple Statcast categories as a Mariner. He ranked in the league’s 69th percentile in hard-hit rate and expected weighted on-base average (.347, compared to a .326 real wOBA), and in its 74th percentile in expected slugging percentage (.492). Santana also finished with an excellent .483 xwOBA on contact.
One clear issue for Santana is that he had great difficulty actually putting the bat on the ball last year, finishing 11th worst among 135 qualifiers in contact percentage (69.9) and dead last in strikeout rate (32.3). But an overwhelming amount of strikeouts is what everyone has come to expect from Santana, who has fanned 32 percent of the time since he debuted in the majors in 2014. Even in his career-best 2017, Santana went down on strikes at a 29 percent-plus clip. However, he helped offset that to some degree with a 12.5 percent walk rate – a number that dipped below 10 percent in each of the previous two seasons.
Along with better health and amassing more walks, it seems Santana’s value to the Indians will increase if they keep him away from the field. For the most part, Santana has been a defensive nightmare in the bigs, having recorded minus-37 DRS and a minus-31.2 UZR. He should see a lot of DH time in Cleveland, which ought to aid in maximizing his value, but one problem for the club is that it has a similar corner outfielder in Franmil Reyes. He’s another powerful, high-strikeout, defensively challenged player. At least one of those two will be in the outfield on a regular basis, and that probably doesn’t sound too appealing if you’re a member of Cleveland’s pitching staff.
Considering Santana’s defensive shortcomings, the Indians couldn’t have taken a flier on the 27-year-old expecting him to hold his own in the field. Instead, the hope for the Indians is that Santana will reach his previous heights as a hitter, and it wouldn’t be entirely surprising to see him at least log respectable numbers at the plate if his health holds up. The team’s paying Santana relatively little, so he shouldn’t have much trouble living up to his deal.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
I think Santana is one of the most underrated (or maybe overlooked is a better way to put it) player in the majors. Sure he’s had some struggles and has some holes in his game — but when given the opportunity to play he has been pretty decent – and I personally think if he hadn’t been sent down/hurt/not played full time — he’d have been able to continue to post 30+ HRs each of the past 3 years. I definitely agree that he’s a perfect bounce back candidate and hope he comes out strong this season.
His per-600-PA average WAR is 1.2, so no, he’s not underrated/ overlooked. He is what he is: a decent, but not great COF bat with a horrible glove.
And teams recognize the potential he has: to be a great bat with the defensive shortcomings that are already pegging him as a full-time not-OF in his mid-20s.
There were inclinations in fan circles that his 6′ 5″ frame might lend him to 1B if a team were able and inclined to experiment, but the Mariners already had the DH-first, quasi-1B Vogelbach from the left-side and guys like Nola (C/1B) and early-contract, super-glove ‘spect Evan White from the right, and so had to choose.
Since Santana was the weakest bat of the three with MLB PAs last year (though it was extremely close and this track record does suggest the highest potential ceiling) and that he was the greatest cost relative to value, I understand the M’s decision to non-tender him. Given his bat potential, I also understand why a team is more than willing to take a $1;5M flier on him.
Agreed. As a Brewer fan, I’ve seen this guy for 5 years. He got hurt in 2016, and got demoted in 2018. Had he been on the field everyday, he’d put up the numbers.
he’s so frequently called underrated that he is overrated at this point
Santana was clearly uncomfortable in LF for Seattle last year; he prefers RF (shouldn’t make a difference but it really did for him.) He profiles at best as a possible platoon partner for either Jake Bauers or Tyler Naquin but probably more as a righty pinch-hitter.
Pirates RF Polanco feels comfortable in RF and has a hard time playing the other OF positions as well. Some guys are just natural at one position. Teams try to make everyone too much of a utility type of player. Just some guys can’t do that and it seems to devalue the player for that reason alone. Welcome to the new era of baseball
Problems:
1. He was just as bad when he played RF in Seattle, though.
2. He was not really much worse last year than he had been in years past.
Dag G- you’re not kidding, if you compare his absolutely horrendous defense in LF to his terrible defense in RF there’s a minute improvement. When Santana makes contact he hits the ball hard but his 32.0% SO rate just kills any type of rallies. I am curious to see if Francona can get him to stop chasing bad pitches.
As a former outfielder I can attest that all three positions are very different. I was mainly a centerfielder and when I played left, more balls were hit right at me and were tougher to judge. I found right field easier than left with less action although you are frequently backing up first base. In center, balls are rarely hit right at you so you have a better sense of trajectory and speed. Nothing I loved better than chasing down a long fly ball!
Basically what I have experienced too. Played and enjoyed centerfield the most. With RF being the easiest for me.
I remember Santana being a good hitter when the M’s needed him, so yes he will be a good DH candidate.
Are you forgetting about the time when we needed him most? Santana may have looked good for the first month but that’s mostly down to him benefitting from a lineup that had Encarnacion, Mitch Haniger, Jay Bruce, as well as Vogelbach, Healy and T Beckham who were playing out of their minds in April. When EE, Bruce, Haniger, Healy and Beckham were gone we needed him to step up badly but he was trash. A rally killer who was if not the worst defender in the league he was in the top 10. I think you have a selective memory
Santana figures to DH most of the time in Cleveland.
I also think that Reyes defensive weakness is being overstated both in his play and in the effect it will have on the Indians defense, since the Indians will have an above average defensive player at the the other 7 spots on the diamond.
all seven is a bit of a stretch. Cesar Hernandez never really wowed me with the glove as a Phillies fan.
9 – 2 = 7
so…touting above average defensive pitchers then?
Nah just trolling
He really stunk it up in spring training. Hopefully they don’t keep him around like they did Hanley Ramirez.
I’d rather they re-sign Puig.
Ha Ha Ha Ha hahah
Chance that Dolan spending another dollar in a season with cut revenues……….low.
Chance that Dolan eats a guaranteed contract to sign another guaranteed contract…….0
Sure, because you’re in the room with them, with access to all their decisions.
smh…
Ha ha ha ha
Wow, your intelligence knows no bounds.