Headlines

  • Rockies Sign Jurickson Profar
  • Braves Option Vaughn Grissom, Braden Shewmake
  • Jose Altuve To Undergo Surgery On Fractured Thumb
  • Jose Altuve Leaves WBC Game After Hit By Pitch
  • Edwin Diaz Undergoes Surgery To Repair Patellar Tendon
  • Out Of Options 2023
  • Previous
  • Next
Register
Login
  • Hoops Rumors
  • Pro Football Rumors
  • Pro Hockey Rumors

MLB Trade Rumors

  • Home
  • Teams
    • AL East
      • Baltimore Orioles
      • Boston Red Sox
      • New York Yankees
      • Tampa Bay Rays
      • Toronto Blue Jays
    • AL Central
      • Chicago White Sox
      • Cleveland Guardians
      • Detroit Tigers
      • Kansas City Royals
      • Minnesota Twins
    • AL West
      • Houston Astros
      • Los Angeles Angels
      • Oakland Athletics
      • Seattle Mariners
      • Texas Rangers
    • NL East
      • Atlanta Braves
      • Miami Marlins
      • New York Mets
      • Philadelphia Phillies
      • Washington Nationals
    • NL Central
      • Chicago Cubs
      • Cincinnati Reds
      • Milwaukee Brewers
      • Pittsburgh Pirates
      • St. Louis Cardinals
    • NL West
      • Arizona Diamondbacks
      • Colorado Rockies
      • Los Angeles Dodgers
      • San Diego Padres
      • San Francisco Giants
  • About
    • MLB Trade Rumors
    • Tim Dierkes
    • Writing team
    • Advertise
    • Archives
  • Contact
  • Tools
    • 2022-23 MLB Free Agent List
    • Top 50 Free Agents
    • Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2023
    • Transaction Tracker
    • Extension Tracker
    • Arbitration Tracker
    • Agency Database
  • NBA/NFL/NHL
    • Hoops Rumors
    • Pro Football Rumors
    • Pro Hockey Rumors
  • App
  • Chats
Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

The Mariners Might’ve Struck DFA Gold

By Steve Adams | April 3, 2020 at 5:27pm CDT

Over the past couple of seasons, the Padres have struck gold on a pair of bullpen waiver claims, parlaying essentially free pickups of Brad Hand and Kirby Yates into utterly dominant performances at the MLB level over the life of multiple seasons. We see relievers whom we believe to be more or less fungible make the rounds on the waiver, DFA and minor trade circuit with great regularity, as clubs hope to acquire their own Yates or Hand. No one has had that level of success in recent years.

Enter Austin Adams. No, not that Austin Adams from Detroit/Minnesota. The one who pitched with Washington/Seattle in 2019. (Who can forget the hope we had for an Austin Adams vs. Austin Adams showdown when Minnesota and Seattle met over the summer?) With all due respect to Minnesota/Detroit Austin Adams, it’s the Seattle version that particularly intrigues to this onlooker. And yes, technically he wasn’t a waiver claim — but being acquired in a DFA limbo trade in exchange for a 23-year-old lefty with a career 5.00-plus ERA who has yet to reach Double-A isn’t much different.

Austin Adams | Ray Carlin-USA TODAY Sports

There’s a good chance that casual MLBTR readers are wholly unaware that even one Austin Adams exists in MLB — let alone two. Some, meanwhile, may think it’s just one guy who’s bounced all over the league. More dedicated fans might be keenly aware of both! To this point, the career of each has been rather unremarkable. So why did I spend what I freely admit to be far, far too much time researching and writing this post? Here’s why!

In mulling potential names to profile as breakout candidates, I made a list of players who came to mind easily, then did some rudimentary perusals of various leaderboards for names that surprised me. Jeff Todd and I have spoken about how Adams had looked like a steal for the Mariners in his half season there, but I was nevertheless a bit stunned when browsing FanGraphs and seeing Adams’ name land eighth among 259 MLB relievers (min. 30 IP) in K-BB% at 30.6. His 2.71 SIERA tied him with Will Smith for 12th-best in that same subset and put him alongside top relievers like Ryan Pressly, Taylor Rogers, Ken Giles, Emilio Pagan and Seth Lugo. Not bad company! But we’re talking about a sample of 32 innings. I remained skeptical, although admittedly intrigued. Absent of actual baseball news on which to focus — why not dig in?

First up, his primary offering! Adams’ four-seam– wait, no. He throws his slider twice as much as his four-seamer. Only two pitchers threw sliders at a higher clip than Adams’ whopping 64.6 percent, and the pitch was filthy (just ask Christian Yelich). Opponents posted a pitiful .133/.217/.229 slash against it and swung through the offering at a gaudy 22 percent clip. Twenty-two percent isn’t quite Josh Hader/Nick Anderson territory — that’s nearly 25 percent — but it’s pretty darn close. Among 450 pitchers who threw 50 or more sliders in 2019, Adams ranked 25th in terms of spin rate (94th percentile). Not too shabby.

A look at Adams’ fastball initially proved similarly encouraging. He throws the pitch hard (average 95.3 mph) and spins it even better than his slider. There were 598 pitchers in the Majors who threw at least 50 four-seam fastballs in 2019. Only eleven of them had a higher spin rate. Surely, hitters struggled with Adams’ four-seamer just as much as with his slider! Or so I thought. In reality, they hit .263/.464/.632 against it. That… is bad.

However, that’s also a small sample of pitches within an already small sample of innings. Those numbers look terrible, granted, but the reality is that Adams threw his fastball infrequently enough that hitters were all of 5-for-19 against it. Two of those five hits were dingers, and another was a double. A four-seamer was also called for ball four on eight of the 16 walks he issued in 2019. That’s one way to inflate a slash line real quickly.

Adams is interesting in that his slider is so good, he uses the pitch at extraordinary levels when he’s ahead in the count. It’s part of the reason he’s averaged better than 14 strikeouts per nine innings in his minor league career and nearly 15 per nine in the Majors last season. But his fastball, despite its spin and velocity, hasn’t been effective. He throws it almost exclusively when he’s behind in the count or on the first pitch — such situations accounted for a whopping 131 of his 176 four-seamers in 2019 — and he doesn’t command that heater especially well. Only 90 of his 176 four-seam fastballs were thrown in the strike zone, and Adams tossed a first-pitch strike at just a 54.6 percent rate. The league average was 60.9 percent.

Unsurprisingly, Adams has battled walk issues throughout his career. He walked 16 hitters in his 32 frames last year, and that was actually an improvement over his career marks in the minors (5.8 BB/9 overall — 5.0 in Triple-A). Adams has also plunked two hitters in the Majors, hit 2.2 percent of the batters he’s faced in his minor league career and uncorked a combined 71 wild pitches in 384 2/3 innings. He’s no Rick Vaughn, but the “Wild Thing” moniker wouldn’t be a total stretch, either.

The contrast between Adams’ slider and fastball isn’t the only set of contradictory components to his skill set. A look at Adams’ .263 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) indicates that based on his K-BB numbers and the quality of contact he allows, hitters should be overwhelmed by him. Only 34 of the 631 pitchers who allowed at least 50 balls in play last year had a lower xwOBA. And yet, it’s clear that Adams’ strikeout prowess weighs heaviest of all in that evaluation. He tied for 461st in terms of opponents’ exit velocity within that same subset and was right in the middle of the pack with 8.3 percent of the balls put into play against him being considered “barreled” by Statcast.

Adams’ power slider, his ability to miss bats and his ability to keep the ball on the ground (50 percent) are a tantalizing combination that give him the makings of a potentially dominant reliever. His lack of fastball command and his propensity for surrendering hard contact have held him back to this point.

So — what to make of Adams? He’ll be 29 years old by the time the season begins — if it does at all — and will be on his way back from surgery to repair a torn ACL. That’s not as worrisome as an arm injury but certainly an issue that can have lingering effects. But the Mariners were clearly encouraged enough to keep him on the 40-man roster all winter despite undergoing that rehab-intensive surgery in September. It’s true that the bullpen-starved Nationals (for several years now) never even gave Adams a real look, but I’d wager they’d like a mulligan on parting with him after watching him pitch with the Mariners.

I’m by no means proclaiming that Adams is going to go full Yates this season and post a 1.19 ERA while leading the league in saves — although I will obviously delete this sentence demand retroactive credit if he does! — but he’s shown the tools to be the type of late-blooming breakout reliever that few saw coming, much like Yates and Hand were down in San Diego. It’s far easier to write “with better control of his fastball…” than it is for Adams to actual improve that skill, but the foundation for a knockout reliever is clearly in place here.

And if there’s a team that can afford to give Adams a lengthy look, it’s one like Seattle. The Mariners are in what they hope will be the final stages of an accelerated rebuild, and a healthy Adams could potentially play a notable role in that. The Seattle bullpen is a hodgepodge of fliers and young MLB hopefuls, with no set closer of which to speak. It’s entirely possible that a Adams could find himself holding down a high-leverage role and at last carving out a spot for himself in the big leagues. Of course, he’s also out of minor league options and coming off a major knee surgery, so this isn’t some surefire breakout candidate. But few relievers acquired at this low of a price have this dominant of a pitch and demonstrate as much potential as Adams did in 2019.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Share 0 Retweet 8 Send via email0

MLBTR Originals Seattle Mariners Austin Adams Breakout Candidate

MLBPA Approves Assistance Program For Non-Roster Players With Prior MLB Service
Main
Klutch Sports Agency Expands Into Baseball
View Comments (24)

Comments

  1. GOMS

    3 years ago

    This is the guy who will (should) end up closing for us once healthy

    Reply
    • 8ManLineupNoPitcherNoDH

      3 years ago

      All 3 saves, yes

      Reply
  2. DarkSide830

    3 years ago

    gotta admit i was wrong about this one. i didnt think he was all that good but he really is.

    Reply
    • Briffle

      3 years ago

      Dude has pitched 38 innings, book isn’t closed on him yet. We all know how violatile relievers are.

      Reply
  3. Joe Kerr

    3 years ago

    Steve writing about his brother and cousin.

    Reply
  4. jorge78

    3 years ago

    Austin L. Adams is with the Mariners.
    Austin D. Adams is the other guy.
    Middle Initials People!

    Reply
  5. Metsfan9

    3 years ago

    Speaking of garbage bin pickups that turned out great I revisited the Max Muncy signing article and all the Dodgers “fans” were trashing the signing and saying he wouldn’t even be good for OKC. I guess Muncy proved them wrong

    Reply
  6. ettin

    3 years ago

    Hi Steve,

    I would argue that the Angels have made a habitual habit of picking solid relievers off of the waiver wire, through minor trades for cash considerations, and/or modest trades at little cost.

    The Angels picked up Hansel Robles off of waivers from the Mets, Ty Buttrey as part of the Ian Kinsler trade to the Red Sox, Felix Pena from the Cubs, Noe Ramirez from the Red Sox.

    Additionally, they had Kirby Yates at one point but tried to stash him in the Minors by exposing him to waivers when he got snatched by the Padres. At that same time they also picked up Blake Parker (twice!) off of waivers too but they kept him and got a couple of useful seasons out of him before his performance waivered.

    They plucked David Hernandez from the Braves and he took off with the Angels for that one year. Also they signed Yusmeiro Petit to a Minor League deal and got gold out of him as well.

    These may not be quite as flashy (although Robles did very well, particularly the 2nd half with his change-up) in terms of elite performance but they were solid, very cheap acquisitions which has been Eppler’s calling card in building bullpens.

    Simply trying to argue that the Angels have been pretty savvy in truly inexpensive bullpen construction with great return on investment.

    Reply
    • andrewgauldin

      3 years ago

      I don’t even blame the Angels on releasing Or optioning Kirby Yates. The dude had one appearance with the team, allowed two BOMBS, and a few of his outs in the one inning he pitched were hit to the warning track.

      Reply
    • andrewgauldin

      3 years ago

      But in addition to the angels savvy moves. Last off-season’s trade off Jose Alvarez for Luis Garcia was viewed as a “savvy” trade. That one didn’t work out, but at the very least, Billy Eppler has been really trying hard analytically with that bullpen. Which I think is the way to go, no reason to pay anybody huge amount of money in the pen.

      Reply
      • Vizionaire

        3 years ago

        that is one area i would give him a+.

        Reply
        • andrewgauldin

          3 years ago

          For real. We could have easily been the Rockies and handed out the Bryan Shaw, Jake McGee, Wade Davis type of contracts.

    • leftyleftylefty

      3 years ago

      Lol Felix Pena. Jesus.

      Reply
    • Manfredsajoke

      3 years ago

      It’s a shame the Angels don’t have better luck pitching wise. They are wasting the best years of a megastar hitter (Trout).

      Reply
  7. orange2001

    3 years ago

    Austin Adams and Kirby Yates two former Angels lost under Eppler’s watch.

    Reply
    • Vizionaire

      3 years ago

      you lose some and win some. eppler has assembled an excellent group of bullpen arms.

      Reply
  8. jints1

    3 years ago

    Any other sleepers to look out for?

    Reply
    • Briffle

      3 years ago

      Willi Castro

      Reply
  9. colelovesthenats121

    3 years ago

    Let’s make it the A.J. Cole story.
    Goes 5-1 after leaving the nationals.But went 2-4 with nationals.

    Reply
  10. DrDan75

    3 years ago

    Brad Hand and Kirby Yates turned their careers around under the tutelage of Darren Balsley. He’s going to be moving on in 2021, and the team that gets him will have one of the best in the business.

    Reply
  11. 8ManLineupNoPitcherNoDH

    3 years ago

    I wish you would have delved into how the Padres were able to get so much out of those waiver studs.

    Reply
  12. drazthegr8

    3 years ago

    Nats fan here.

    We used to call Adams “infinity” because he put up a few gaudy stat lines by walking guys over and over. His debut was one of the worst ever. He didn’t appear to have a good heartbeat – seemed terribly nervous.

    That being sided he clearly had very good stuff. The Nats just couldn’t trust putting him in and getting a quick few runs on the board. He belonged on a weaker team to work out his kinks and I’m glad he’s getting his opportunity in Seattle.

    Reply
  13. emac22

    3 years ago

    Bored me to death with the endless name game at the beginning.

    You evolved tldr to get the F outta here.

    Reply
  14. mlbfan

    3 years ago

    Will he have a better career than the bartender?

    Reply

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Please login to leave a reply.
Log in Register

ad: 300x250_1_MLB

    Top Stories

    Rockies Sign Jurickson Profar

    Braves Option Vaughn Grissom, Braden Shewmake

    Jose Altuve To Undergo Surgery On Fractured Thumb

    Jose Altuve Leaves WBC Game After Hit By Pitch

    Edwin Diaz Undergoes Surgery To Repair Patellar Tendon

    Out Of Options 2023

    Cade Cavalli To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

    Edwin Diaz Helped Off Field With Right Knee Injury

    José Quintana Out Until At Least July Due To Rib Surgery

    Trevor Bauer Signs With NPB’s Yokohama DeNA BayStars

    Craig Stammen “Highly Unlikely” To Pitch Again Following Shoulder Injury

    Diamondbacks, Corbin Carroll Agree To Eight-Year Deal

    Nationals Sign Keibert Ruiz To Eight-Year Extension

    Rockies Showing Interest In Jurickson Profar

    Andrew Painter Diagnosed With UCL Sprain; Ranger Suarez Dealing With Forearm Tightness

    Marlins, Jose Iglesias Agree To Minor League Contract

    Marlins In Agreement With Yuli Gurriel On Minor League Deal

    Carlos Rodon, Tommy Kahnle, Lou Trivino To Begin Season On IL

    Mitch Moreland Announces Retirement

    Astros Facing Gaps In Extension Talks With Kyle Tucker, Framber Valdez

    Recent

    NL West Notes: Hudson, Nelson, Slater

    NL Notes: Harper, Hudson, Liberatore, Stephenson

    Guardians Notes: Freeman, Arias, Extensions, Mikolajchak

    Rockies Sign Jurickson Profar

    Carson Kelly Diagnosed With Fractured Forearm

    Paul DeJong Likely To Open Season On Injured List

    MLBTR Chat Transcript

    Big Hype Prospects: Walker, Volpe, Baty, Grissom, Brown

    Blue Jays Notes: Ryu, Barger, Lopez, Lukes

    Offseason In Review Chat: San Diego Padres

    MLBTR Newsletter - Hot stove highlights in your inbox, five days a week

    Latest Rumors & News

    Latest Rumors & News

    • Offseason Outlook Series
    Trade Rumors App for iOS and Android

    MLBTR Features

    MLBTR Features

    • Go Ad-Free
    • Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2023
    • 2022-23 MLB Free Agent List
    • 2023-24 MLB Free Agent List
    • MLB Player Chats
    • Transaction Tracker
    • Extension Tracker
    • Agency Database
    • MLBTR On Twitter
    • MLBTR On Facebook
    • Team Facebook Pages
    • How To Set Up Notifications For Breaking News
    • Hoops Rumors
    • Pro Football Rumors
    • Pro Hockey Rumors

    Rumors By Team

    • Angels Rumors
    • Astros Rumors
    • Athletics Rumors
    • Blue Jays Rumors
    • Braves Rumors
    • Brewers Rumors
    • Cardinals Rumors
    • Cubs Rumors
    • Diamondbacks Rumors
    • Dodgers Rumors
    • Giants Rumors
    • Guardians Rumors
    • Mariners Rumors
    • Marlins Rumors
    • Mets Rumors
    • Nationals Rumors
    • Orioles Rumors
    • Padres Rumors
    • Phillies Rumors
    • Pirates Rumors
    • Rangers Rumors
    • Rays Rumors
    • Red Sox Rumors
    • Reds Rumors
    • Rockies Rumors
    • Royals Rumors
    • Tigers Rumors
    • Twins Rumors
    • White Sox Rumors
    • Yankees Rumors

    ad: 160x600_MLB

    Navigation

    • Sitemap
    • Archives
    • Feeds by Team

    MLBTR INFO

    • Advertise
    • About
    • Commenting Policy
    • Privacy Policy

    Connect

    • Contact Us
    • Twitter
    • Facebook
    • RSS Feed

    MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

    hide arrowsFOX Sports Engage Network scroll to top
    Close

    Desktop Version | Switch To Mobile Version