Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen has come under fire at times since the team hired the former agent after the 2018 season, but BVW has nonetheless had his high points atop their front office. One of his best decisions in New York came in January 2019, when he acquired a player who’s now among the Mets’ most valuable hitters in a trade with the Astros.
Sixteen months ago, Van Wagenen and then-Astros GM Jeff Luhnow worked out a swap that sent infielder/outfielder J.D. Davis and INF Cody Bohanek to the Mets for the trio of second baseman Luis Santana, outfielder Ross Adolph and catcher Scott Manea. Nobody from that quintet looked like a high-end asset at the time, and Davis was the only member of the group with major league experience.
Davis, a third-round pick of the Astros in 2014, hit a miserable .194/.260/.321 in 181 plate appearances in their uniform from ’17-18. However, Davis did have his way with Triple-A pitchers, against whom he slashed .335/.400/.589 with 22 home runs in 450 trips to the plate.
Davis’ success at the highest level of the minors impressed the Mets, who now look as if they acquired a terrific hitter at a low price. Davis got his first extensive look in the majors last season, his age-26 campaign, and ran with it.
Across 453 PA, Davis batted a strong .307/.369/.527 (136 wRC+) with 22 home runs in his Mets debut. The righty swinger showed no vulnerability against either same-handed or southpaw pitchers in the process, and his Statcast numbers don’t suggest his success was fluky. On the contrary, Davis finished in the league’s 80th percentile or better in barrels, exit velocity, expected slugging percentage, hard-hit rate, expected weighted on-base average and expected batting average. His xwOBA (.383) outdid an already impressive real-life mark of .373 and ranked 21st in the league, placing him among a slew of big names.
As great as Davis’ offense was last season, defensive woes tamped down his value. He lined up at third and in left field, where he combined for minus-20 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-6.3 Ultimate Zone Rating. Still, thanks to his offensive breakout, the overall package was worth an above-average 2.4 fWAR. That’s especially good for someone who looked like a lottery ticket when the Mets got him, and for someone who made a minimum salary in 2019. Davis won’t be eligible to reach free agency until after 2024, which means he could be an important piece of New York’s offense for several more years (perhaps especially if the NL adds a DH).
Unlike Davis, Bohanek hasn’t shown a ton of potential so far, and the 24-year-old turned in fairly nondescript numbers at the High-A level last season. The Astros don’t seem as if they’ll miss him, but what about their return? Here’s how it has panned out through one season…
- Luis Santana: The Mets’ 19th overall prospect at MLB.com when the trade occurred, Santana’s now the outlet’s 22nd-ranked Astros farmhand. The 20-year-old hit just two homers last season, batting .267/.339/.352 in 186 Low-A attempts and .228/.333/.263 in 66 PA at the Double-A level.
- Ross Adolph: The 23-year-old outfielder combined for a .228/.357/.366 line with seven homers in 460 PA between Single-A and High-A ball last season. Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel recently wrote for FanGraphs that he could amount to a role player in MLB.
- Scott Manea: The 24-year-old offered a .235/.347/.387 line with 12 HRs and 389 PA at the High-A level last season. He’s not regarded as a notable prospect.
This looks like anything but a can’t-miss package for the Astros, though it’s still way too early to throw dirt on the careers of anyone they picked up. The Mets, meanwhile, can’t be anything but thrilled with what they’ve gotten from Davis.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
He still traded potential superstar Jarred Kelenic and top SP prospect Justin Dunn to the Mariners for the privilege of downgrading from Anthony Swarzak to Edwin Diaz and downgrading from Jay Bruce to Robinson Cano, all while increasing their future contractual obligations to the point where they couldn’t afford to resign Zack Wheeler and had to settle for Rick Porcello instead.
This is all sadly true. Well other than the Bruce being better than Cano thing; BVW made a decent move or two but his overall record is disaster.
Bruce had a better OPS than Cano while putting up better WAR. Only thing that favors Cano is the 2B position bonus, which is offset by the fact that Jeff McNeil was jettisoned from his natural 2B position to the OF where his defense suffered accordingly.
Actually, McNeil proved to be better than expected in the outfield. This year he’ll be at 3B, but I’d have no problem putting him out there occasionally.
you also forget to mention that Diaz was one of the best closer at that time. He was also an All Star that year, received votes in the cy young, and mvp. He also had a era under 2 while leading the league in saves. did i expect him to be that good again? At that age maybe not that spotless but near the top of the range of closers as he was just entering his prime and had not hit arbitration yet. With good closers going 10-15 a year it was a well calculated risk. Who knew he would have fallen completely off a cliff. This was the one spot everyone and their mother was saying the mets needed so BVW went out and got the best at the time.
Regarding wheeler, at that price i wouldnt have resigned him even if we didnt have cano on the books. I love wheeler and wish him the best but the price he is being paid per year is ace level pitcher and i wouldnt say he is ace level but definitely a high end number 2.
Didn’t forget, just acknowledging that ultimately the two salary dumps the Mets included turned out to be more productive than the players they paid a premium to trade for.
He had one of the best seasons of all time. That doesn’t make him the best closer.
Yeah that trade was bad and all because BVW was Cano’s boy. How the Mets didn’t get top prospects for taking on Cano’s contract is amazing. Wheeler was never going to be back because you don’t pay #4 starters 20 million dollars
While I HATE that he trade Kelenic , Diaz ,awful year and all, is no downgrade from Swarzak. Bruce has to go and NOONE else wanted him. Mets couldn’t give him away during the previous Trade Deadline and he put up good numbers. With Bruce clogging up the OF the Mets don’t get McNeil , Conforto and Davis in the same lineup
Phillies were pushing hard for Diaz and with their off-season the Mets could not afford to let them acquire Diaz who at the time was one of if not the best closer in the game especially at his age
Mixing in Wheeler to all of this in non sense. With his year there was no way the Mets were bringing him back having to eventually ante up for Thor. 80 million per year for 3 starters ?
Bruce was coming off of an unbelievably bad year so that’s not fair to say that Cano was a downgrade to Bruce.
While trading kelenic was stupid, the mets received players that were coming off of very good seasons. Diaz was one of the best closers in baseball in 2018 and Cano had good splits for the half season that he did play. BVW definitely gave up more than he needed too, but the mariners were asking for McNeil….lets just be glad he’s still a met.
Dunne won’t work out. But Kelenic and all that salary is a disaster.
I’m a little curious where the author believes JD Davis would have played with the Astros…that has to factor in some in this, does it not? Especially since judging trades with the benefit of hindsight is…problematic at best?
He is obsessed with the Astros and using the keyboard.
Actually believes they screwed his Yankees
Entertaining to say the least
Between this joker and Todd there seems to be lots of thinly veiled Astros hit pieces. I can’t believe Tim Dierkes is cool with their bias. It’s obvious and it’s so out of place here.
I agree with jasonmarbach
First of all this was not Van Lunchwagon’s decision; another person in the Met’s front office is credited with finding Davis.
Secondly if Lunchwagon waited he could have gotten Davis for NOTHING as the Astros had no room for him.
So how do you give credit to an idiot who gave up three players of any caliber for a guy who was out of options and they had no room for?
They basically did get him for nothing. 3 players that are unlikely to make any real impact at the MLB level. Giving up 3 even lesser prospects wouldn’t make the deal sweeter.
Davis was trash for the Astros and there really wasn’t anywhere to play him. He was on overglorified 1B-DH who really couldn’t hit. Maybe the scenery change will keep in the show a few years, but Davis is not much more that a 4-A player in the long run. He’ll have a decent season every now and again, but don’t plan any Cooperstown trips.
He plays 3B and LF. The Mets already have a 3B and a LF themselves.
He’s JD Davis and he bats 5th. (Daniel Murphy reference)
Let’s see what he does with 600 abs and a full season.
Gets sent down for Tim Tebow. :p
“Rob” the Astros. Like how Chris Correa and the Cardinals did?
Looks like the article title got updated.
Now it looks like the updated article title got updated.
The bottom line is to win. It doesn’t matter what Kelenic or Dunn become if we win.
Last year they improved by 9 games over 2018, 3 games out of the wild card, with nothing from Cano and Diaz. The number one key will be the bull pen. If each pitches up to anything close to what they have done in the past, things will be great. Diaz at 26 is still a baby with fantastic stuff. If he comes anywhere close to 2018 then all of the shoulda’s will crawl back into their easy chair and find something else to be critical about.
Not sure if you purposely made a Bob Dylan reference but I liked the comment regardless.
davis looked like a losing lottery ticket
Losing lottery ticket??? U serious? He had a fantastic year.
Hey Tim Dierkes I’ve never noticed any bias on your site until this year. Between this bozo and Jeff Todd it’s become pretty obvious you guys get off on any chance to write anything negative about the Astros. Grow up MLBTR you’re usually better than this.
I’ve stopped reading MLBTR, check in on the headlines from time to time. Irritating how the Astros are reported on. Through many outlets, not just MLBTR.
Pretty sure the Astros are okay with it considering the success they’ve had and the lack of success the Mets have had. (Getting caught cheating doesn’t mean they didn’t enjoy all that WS money after.)
Very true–and Fiers didn’t give back his winner’s share or the ring.
Hard to call it a robbery. JD didn’t have a track record to command a ton in trade value. Robber looked for cash, took some painting and found out it was valuable some time later.
What’s JD best position. He’s not better than McNeil at 3rd or Cespedes if fully Healthy for left field. Only possible way he plays everyday if NL has full time DH for Cano and McNeil plays 2nd to allow Davis to play 3rd everyday
It’s obvious that Houston has no need for JDs at all. First they cut JD Martinez who becomes the best DH in baseball, then they trade JD Davis for a bag of balls. I don’t see Houston drafting any more JDs in the near future.