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Archives for October 2020

Pirates To Explore Josh Bell Extension

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Last winter, the Pirates and Josh Bell discussed an extension to keep the hulking first baseman in Pittsburgh long-term, but nothing actionable materialized. Management plans to try again this winter, per the Athletic’s Rob Biertempfel. Bell is represented by Scott Boras, and he is currently set to enter free agency following the 2022 season.

Bell is coming off a relatively disastrous campaign in 2020, and the Pirates would likely look to secure him for a reasonable extension. Biertempfel suggests the two sides could settle on a 3-year deal, allowing the Pirates a little more long-term security, while Bell would still enter free agency in his early thirties.

Bell looked like a surefire franchise player with a .277/367/.569 breakout campaign with 37 home runs and 116 RBIs in 2019. But as much as he impressed with 2019, the inverse happened in 2020 as he stumbled with a triple slash of .226/.305/.364. His year-over-year wRC+ tumbled from 135 in 2019 to 78 in 2020.

The Pirates don’t appear particularly close to contention, and as a small market club, the argument can certainly be made that they should explore trading Bell for prospects. But the Pirates can’t likely get the kind of return they need to move him, so they have to either play out the string until free agency two seasons from now, or try to get an extra year or two or three of control before that moment.

If he bounces back, after all, an extension may only make him more appealing as a trade candidate. Scott Boras seems to prefer to take his clients to their natural free agency, and that remains the likeliest option for Bell. Still, Boras clients have signed arbitration extensions in the past, and given the current uncertainty facing free agents, now might be the right time for the Pirates to strike.

Pirates Decline Option On Chris Archer

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The Pittsburgh Pirates declined their $11M option on Chris Archer, making the right-hander a free agent, per Jason Mackey of PGSportsNow (via Twitter).

The 32-year-old’s last big-league action came in 2019 when he went 3-9 with a 5.19 ERA/5.02 FIP in 119 2/3 innings over 23 starts with 10.8 K/9 to 4.1 BB/9. The Pirates hoped Archer could anchor their rotation, but a 0.8 rWAR season wasn’t enough to make an substantive impact for the Buccos.

Declining Archer’s option likely means the end of a disappointing era in Pittsburgh. Much was heaped onto Archer’s shoulders after being acquired from the Rays for soon-to-be stars Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows, and prospect Shane Baz. The 2018 deadline deal was doomed from the start, as Glasnow by himself arguably outperformed Archer down the stretch in that season alone with 0.6 rWAR to Archer’s 0.5 rWAR. Add in the years of control the Rays have for Glasnow, Meadows, and Baz (who has yet to debut) – not to mention Glasnow and Meadows critical role in helping the Rays to win the 2020 AL pennant – and the Pirates overpay for Archer couldn’t be more clear.

Even without the added expectations of the trade, it’s difficult to view Archer’s time with the Pirates as anything but a disappointment. He’ll finish with a 6-12 record with a 4.62 ERA in 172 innings across 33 starts.

All that said, there’s hope for Archer’s future. In all likelihood, he’s looking at a short-term contract to prove himself, but he will definitley be an arm to watch as a potential rebound candidate, as MLBTR’s own Steve Adams wrote about in March. Over his 8-year career with the Rays and Pirates, the former Indians and Cubs farmhand owns a 68-80 record with a 3.86 ERA over 1,235 innings.

Quick Hits: Nationals, Yankees, Mets

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The Washington Nationals are facing a host of changes after missing the playoffs in their title-defense campaign. They laid off a number of front office employees, including scouts and minor league coaches, while 15 players from their 40-man roster are now free agents, writes Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post. The goal for the Nats remains as ever, building for the playoffs with a veteran-laden roster to support their young stars.

  • Dougherty notes a particular need for another heavy hitter in the middle of the order to help protect all-world outfielder Juan Soto. When World Series hero (and current free agent) Howie Kendrick went down with injury, the Nats didn’t have another bat capable of protecting Soto. An outfield corner spot seems the most likely place to find such a hitter, though they have a hole at first base as well, depending on the status of Mr. Nat  Ryan Zimmerman, who opted out in 2020. The rest of the infield is relatively set with Trea Turner manning shortstop, Carter Kieboom and Luis Garcia looking to establish themselves at third and second, and the duo of Starlin Castro and Josh Harrison providing the safety nets for those positions.
  • The Yankees’ thinking on slugger Giancarlo Stanton has not changed in the weeks following their postseason elimination. The front office expects Stanton to spend most of his time at designated hitter in order to give him the best chance of staying healthy, per Erik Boland of Newsday. Though they think Stanton capable of playing the outfield, they’re paying him $29MM in 2021 for his bat to be in the lineup. If he could give them innings in the field, it would certainly help from a roster construction perspective, but his value proposition remains dependent on his offensive production.
  • The Mets have shut down their minor league camps because of positive COVID-19 tests, per the Athletic’s Tim Britton (via Twitter). There were two positive tests, and further testing hasn’t revealed any further positives as of right now. These are the proper protocols for any positive tests. The Mets camp will wait a couple of days until they can confirm the containment of the virus.

Latest On Dustin Pedroia

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7:58 pm: To be clear, there have been no firm discussions between the Red Sox and Pedroia or his agents. Discussions in the near-term are within the realm of possibility, but those talks have not happened as of yet, per Rob Bradford of WEEI.com (via Twitter). The two sides are prepared for a discussion, but decisions have not been made final, and those negotiations are not yet underway.

3:32pm: Dustin Pedroia is a Red Sox legend. Toeing the line between MLB superstar and postseason cult hero, the California-born second baseman played every game with grit and energy. The 5’9″ Pedroia could easily be mistaken for the “gutsy” brand of major-league glue guy, the overachiever who puts team first and whose motor never stops. Pedroia was exactly that, and though his blue-collar playing style could earn him the title of dirt dog, make no mistake about it: Pedroia was a superstar. A key player on two World Series winners, his accolades were numerous: 4-time All-Star, 4-time Gold Glove Award winner, a Silver Slugger award, the AL Rookie of the Year in 2007, and the AL MVP in 2008. He has accumulated 51.6 rWAR in his career, which includes 6 seasons of 5+ rWAR.

Unfortunately, knee injuries sidelined Pedroia in recent years. The 37-year-old appeared in just 9 games over the past three seasons.  Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe now hears that Pedroia and the Red Sox “are prepared to talk soon about a mutual understanding that would end his playing career.” Pedroia is owed $12.125MM in 2021 – the final year of his deal. Abraham notes that the benefit for the Red Sox would be in freeing up his 40-man roster spot before the business of the offseason begins in full. No official announcement is planned, but if Abraham’s sources are indeed correct, Pedroia could make a final decision about the potential end of his playing days soon.

Currently, Pedroia owns a .299/.365/.439 career line across 6,777 plate appearances with 1,805 hits, 922 runs, 140 home runs, 138 stolen bases, and 51.6 rWAR. If Pedroia never plays another major league game, he will have put together an impressive resume that will merit consideration for the Hall of Fame.

He was drafted the same year Boston ended their 85-year playoff drought, beginning his career in A-ball as a 20-year-old during what turned out to be a magical year in Boston. It could be seen as a disappointment to arrive just after a year as redemptive and memorable as 2004 was for the Red Sox, but Pedroia didn’t appear to fret over missing out on the curse-breaking fun. Instead, he made his legacy on the continuation of a dream, helping to turn Boston into a perennial contender and one of the premiere franchises in the game. From his rookie season in 2007 – in which he roasted opposing pitchers to the tune of .317/.380/.442 – Pedroia cemented his status by ensuring Boston fans wouldn’t endure another stretch of title-less baseball. Even on a star-studded Red Sox team, Pedroia shined bright. Alongside fellow youngsters Jacoby Ellsbury, and Jon Lester, Pedroia teamed with a veteran cast of proven playoff heroes like David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez, Kevin Youkilis, Jason Varitek, Josh Beckett, and Curt Schilling to sweep the Rockies and win the World Series for the second time in four seasons.

Pedroia would again play a key role for a title team in 2013 when he posted 6.1 rWAR and finished 7th in MVP voting. For his career, Pedroia appeared in 51 total playoff games. He played his entire career with the Red Sox organization, currently sitting 7th in rWAR on their all-time franchise leaderboard. He’s also 9th in at-bats, 8th in hits, 6th in doubles, and 2nd behind only Everett Scott in defensive rWAR.

Twins Notes: Cruz, Rosario, Pohlad On Payroll, Free Agency In 2021

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Twins owner Jim Pohlad said recently that the revenue losses due to the pandemic in 2020 won’t be the impetus for payroll decision-making in 2021, per Phil Miller of the Star Tribune (via Twitter). Pohlad does admit to the uncertainty facing next season, especially concerning future fan attendance. Pohlad refers to an “uncertainty discount” in discussing the planning for next season, though what that means in practical terms is yet to be determined.

The Twins ran out an estimated luxury tax payroll of $158MM in 2020, though the actual number was more like $132MM, and their ultimate payout to players was closer to $45MM after prorating salaries, per Cot’s Contracts. The Twins have an estimated payroll of around $100MM for 18 players next season, which is very much an estimate, as it includes estimated arbitration totals that have an even wider range of potential outcomes than usual.

The Twins have shown a commitment to winning when they view their window of contention to be open, however, as it very much is right now (despite their playoff struggles). To that end, they are currently negotiating to bring back designated hitter Nelson Cruz, writes La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune. Cruz is said to be looking for a two-year deal. He just wrapped a successful two-year, $26MM deal with the Twins in which he managed a 163 wRC+ with 57 home runs over 737 plate appearances in 173 games.

A re-do of the same contract for Cruz would absorb something close to 40% of the payroll available before matching last season’s total. There’s murky math there, at best, considering the lack of clarity around arbitration and Pohlad’s “uncertainty discount.” The point remains that the Twins would figure to be judicious in certain areas this winter. That could mean non-tendering someone like Eddie Rosario, Neal suggests. The thinking there is that if the Twins believe top prospect Alex Kirilloff is ready for an outfield corner – with Max Kepler locked into another outfield spot and Byron Buxton still two seasons from free agency – they could save something close to $10MM by non-tendering Rosario.

In terms of a potential headline-making move in free agency, per Neal, Pohlad said, “We could, but we don’t know what the market for such a player is going to be. In a sense there has been, in my view — and I’m not speaking for the players or the union — there has to be some degree of risk sharing here.” Speculatively speaking, that could mean contracts with heavy incentives, even ones depending on fan attendance, though that would certainly set a complex precedent for the MLBPA. Owners would be more likely to address the issue of financial security through larger negotiations with the MLBPA.

Pohlad’s actions during the pandemic might lend a little more credence to his comments than the average owner, as the Twins have been one of the few franchises not to make any layoffs during this time. As Neal points out in his article, which is well worth a full read, Pohlad’s varied portfolio allowed the Twins to weather the storm better than most. Still, credit the Twins owner for committing to the continued employment of his staff during this difficult time.

Mike Freeman Elects Free Agency

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Infielder Mike Freeman elected free agency today, the Indians announced. He had previously been outrighted. With his decision, Cleveland now has 6 open spots on their 40-man roster.

Freeman has been outrighted before by the Indians, but he found his way back regardless for the 2020 season. The 33-year-old veteran has never been a major-league regular, but he’s nonetheless a 5-year veteran having spent time with the Diamondbacks, Mariners, Dodgers, Cubs, and Indians.

His most prolific season came in 2019 with the Indians when he slashed .277/.362/.390 with 4 home runs across 213 plate appearances. He appeared in 24 games in 2020, though just 8 as a starter. He slashed .237/.302/.316 over 43 plate appearances.

The former 11th round pick of the Diamondbacks plays all over the diamond, with his value coming primarily via defensive prowess and versatility. He appeared everywhere in the infield as well as left field for the Indians over the past two seasons.

Brad Brach Exercises Player Option

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Brad Brach exercised his $2.075MM player option to remain with the New York Mets, per Tim Healey of Newsday (via Twitter). That’s slightly more than had been previously reported, as Brach’s option had been listed as worth $1.25MM. He signed back with the Mets as a free agent this past December. He is represented by Brian Charles of Big League Management Company, LLC.

The 6’6″ sinkerballer experienced a discouraging drop in velocity in 2020. After averaging 94.1 mph on his four-seamer in 2019, his fastball clocked in at just 90.3 mph this year. Having previously been heavily reliant on his heater, throwing it roughly half the time, he threw it just 17.1% of the time in 2020. By usage, the four-seamer fell to fourth in his arsenal behind a cutter, change-up, and sinker. He made 14 appearances for the Mets in 2020, struggling to the tune of a 5.84 ERA/6.69 FIP across 12 1/3 innings with unfortunately matching 10.2 K/9 and 10.2 BB/9.

He had been a stabilizing presence for the Mets in 2019 after being signed off the scrap heap in August. The Cubs released him after a tough first half, but he rebounded with a 3.68 ERA/2.67 FIP in 14 2/3 innings across 16 appearances for the Mets. The right-handed reliever will again look to rebound in his age-35 season, which will be his 11th season as a big-leaguer. Overall, Brach has made 496 appearances out of the bullpen for the Padres, Orioles, Braves, Cubs, and Mets with a 3.39 ERA/3.76 FIP.

Tommy Kahnle Elects Free Agency

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Right-hander Tommy Kahnle declined an outright assignment from the Yankees and instead chose to become a free agent, the team announced.

After undergoing Tommy John surgery in August, Kahnle will miss most and quite possibly all of the 2021 season, making him a logical non-tender candidate.  Headed into his third trip through the arbitration process, Kahnle was projected to earn $2.7MM, or a minimal raise on his $2.65MM salary from 2020 given that he pitched a single inning this season.

In electing to become a free agent, Kahnle will now look for a change of scenery in a new organization and see if he can land a two-year commitment — as per the usual model for TJ recovery cases, Kahnle would earn a minimum salary in the first year of the contract and then a larger salary in the second year when he is expected to actually pitch.  Finding such a contract in this troubled free agent market could be a challenge, though Kahnle has delivered enough results on the mound that a club might be convinced to take what should still be a relatively inexpensive plunge.

The 31-year-old righty has a 3.82 ERA, 2.61 K/BB rate, 46.6% grounder rate, and 11.2 K/9 over 227 2/3 career relief innings with the Yankees, White Sox, and Rockies.  Though injuries plagued him in 2018, Kahnle has shown that he can be a bullpen workhorse when healthy, tossing 62 2/3 innings over 69 appearances in 2017 and 61 1/3 innings over 72 appearances in 2019.

Cubs Decline Daniel Descalso’s Option

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The Cubs have declined their $3.5MM club option on infielder Daniel Descalso for the 2021 season, the team announced.  Descalso will instead receive a $1MM buyout and head into free agency.

Descalso was inked to a two-year, $5MM contract in December 2018 with the expectation that he would provide Chicago with multi-positional depth and some of the left-handed hitting pop he displayed with the Diamondbacks during the 2018 season.  Unfortunately for the Cubs, Descalso hit only .173/.271/.250 over 194 plate appearances in 2019 and missed all of 2020 recovering due to an ankle injury.

A veteran of 10 big league seasons, the 34-year-old Descalso will surely have to settle for a minor league contract if he catches on with another team this winter.  A career .235/.320/.362 hitter over 2893 career PA with the Cubs, D’Backs, Rockies, and Cardinals, Descalso has played mostly second base and third base in recent years, with some other experience as a first baseman, shortstop, and left fielder on his resume.

Cubs Exercise Anthony Rizzo’s 2021 Option

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TODAY: The Cubs officially announced that Rizzo’s option has been exercised.

OCTOBER 30: The Cubs bought out left-hander Jon Lester’s option Friday, but first baseman Anthony Rizzo won’t get the same treatment. The team’s planning to pick up his $16.5MM option for 2021, which will be Rizzo’s last season of team control, Patrick Mooney of The Athletic reports.

Retaining Rizzo shouldn’t come as a surprise, but as we’ve seen this week, all bets seem to be off in baseball’s current economic climate. And while Rizzo has generally been fantastic since he first became a Cub in 2012, the 31-year-old took sizable steps backward this season. Rizzo put up a pedestrian 103 wRC+, his worst since his debut with the Padres in 2011, and batted .222/.342/.414 with 11 home runs in 243 plate appearances. Moreover, Rizzo’s .339 expected weighted on-base average was his worst since the Statcast era began, and it was a 55-point drop from the .394 mark he logged in 2019.

While Rizzo will return to the Cubs for another season and hope for a rebound, their lineup might look quite a bit different otherwise. After a first-round playoff exit this fall, president of baseball operations Theo Epstein suggested an offensive shakeup is forthcoming. That could put other Cubs mainstays (Kris Bryant and Kyle Schwarber, to name a couple of examples) in jeopardy of sticking with the team in 2021.

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