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Quick Hits: Non-Tender Increase, Changes In Catching, Positive COVID-19 Tests

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Given the financial impact of coronavirus and the increasing trend of non-tenders, expect a record number of non-tenders this offseason, writes Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs. Last year’s 53 total non-tenders was already a record, and it’s safe to assume MLB will surpass that number this year. There are success stories from this field, of course. Take Kevin Gausman, who was non-tendered last winter before being extended and accepting the $18.9MM qualifying offer just a year later.

Increasing DFAs is an issue that compounds on itself, however, as those non-tendered players enter the available player pool, giving teams more and more options to consider opposite their own arbitration-eligible players. Specifically, Longehagen points to catchers, power first basemen or designated hitters, and infielders without power as three pools of players likely to hit the open market.

  • Longenhagen also provides interesting analysis about the changing dynamics of the catcher position. The eventual implementation of electronic strikes zones diminishes the important of pitch framing, which has long been on the league radar. But Longenhagen also notes that the universal DH makes the catcher spot the most likely place for a pinch-hitter. The universal DH does seem to be on its way, even if it doesn’t happen in 2021, and the two-back system, so to speak, is already in use for much of the league. Still, the specialization of the catcher position is shifting ever so slightly. Whether we see arm strength and blocking ability more valued in free agency this season remains to be seen. Electronic strike zones could alter the pitching market too, of course, but any shifts in that regard are more likely to be in the development and drafting stages than free agency.
  • The Mariners cancelled their last two instructional league games due to a pair of positive COVID-19 tests, per Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times (via Twitter). One of the two also had a pair of negative tests, while the other is isolating and following protocols. There were no other positive tests and contact tracing was performed, but the Peoria facility is still being shut down – as has become the standard – out of an “abundance of caution.”

Offseason Outlook: Chicago White Sox

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Will the White Sox move past the black eye of the Tony La Russa hiring and upgrade the team in a bid for the first back-to-back playoff appearances in franchise history?

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Yasmani Grandal, C: Three years, $54.75MM
  • Dallas Keuchel, SP: Two years, $37.5MM.  Includes $20MM club/vesting option for 2023
  • Jose Abreu, 1B: Two years, $34MM
  • Tim Anderson, SS: Two years, $17.75MM.  Includes $12.5MM club option for 2023 and $14MM club option for 2024
  • Leury Garcia, IF/OF: One year, $3.5MM
  • Eloy Jimenez, LF: Four years, $35.5MM.  Includes $16.5MM club option for 2025 and $18.5MM club option for 2026
  • Yoan Moncada, 3B: Four years, $65MM.  Includes $25MM club option for 2025
  • Luis Robert, CF: Five years, $48.5MM.  Includes $20MM club options for 2026 and ’27
  • Aaron Bummer, RP: Four years, $15MM.  Includes $7.25MM club option for 2025 and $7.5MM club option for 2026

Arbitration Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

  • Exercised $3.5MM club option on IF Leury Garcia
  • Declined $12MM club option on DH Edwin Encarnacion
  • Declined $7MM club option on SP Gio Gonzalez

Free Agents

The rebuild is officially over.  The White Sox reached the playoffs this year for the first time since 2008, falling to the A’s in the three-game Wild Card series.  Eleven days later, the team fired manager Rick Renteria and longtime pitching coach Don Cooper.  When GM Rick Hahn told reporters the ideal managerial candidate would have “recent October experience with a championship organization,” the club initially seemed primed to hire A.J. Hinch or Alex Cora.

Instead, it became clear that White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf had his heart set on righting what he saw as a 34-year-old wrong, bringing back Tony La Russa as manager.  La Russa began his managerial career with the White Sox in 1979 and was fired in 1986, after which he achieved legendary status and Hall of Fame induction for his work at the helm of the A’s and Cardinals.  La Russa had retired from managing after his 2011 Cardinals won it all, taking on front office roles for the Diamondbacks, Red Sox, and Angels.  So much for “recent” October experience.  The White Sox didn’t interview Hinch or Cora; their second choice was former Giants and Padres skipper Bruce Bochy, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan said it well regarding the hire: “He inherits a team brimming with young, dynamic talent — a team that, in many ways, represents a new epoch of baseball whose principles and priorities run antithetical to La Russa’s.”  I still felt that the talented White Sox players would be able to overcome that apparent mismatch.  But then came news of La Russa’s February DUI arrest, of which the White Sox were aware before hiring him.  La Russa already had a 2007 DUI on his record.  To this point, a Twitter campaign from some White Sox fans has not convinced La Russa to step down or Reinsdorf to move on.  Reinsdorf hasn’t commented on the matter, and the team’s statement was sparse.  The entire situation is a black eye for the team of Reinsdorf’s doing, but he doesn’t seem to care.  Perhaps one day the White Sox will run through a normal managerial hiring process.

At any rate, hiring La Russa certainly suggests the team will take further steps to improve in the short-term after an active 2019-20 offseason and successful shortened 2020 campaign.  So, what does the team need?  Right field stands out, after Nomar Mazara struggled in his 149 plate appearances.  Though he doesn’t turn 26 until April, Mazara will likely be non-tendered.  The best option in free agency is George Springer, who will likely command a contract in excess of $100MM even in a depressed market.  Even for a lineup that already skews right-handed, Springer would be a huge addition for the White Sox as a 31-year-old five-WAR type player.  And there’s hardly a concern with Springer hitting right-handed pitching, against which he has a 139 wRC+ since 2018.  But with Reinsdorf on record claiming losses “in the nine figures,” will he really go for one of the winter’s most expensive free agents?

There are more affordable options, of course, such as signing Joc Pederson to platoon with Adam Engel in right field.  Hahn could also try the trade market, which could include Joey Gallo and Wil Myers.  The Sox don’t seem to be in a position to acquire a bounceback candidate, but Gregory Polanco, Hunter Renfroe, and Dexter Fowler likely wouldn’t be hard to pry loose.  Adam Eaton is a free agent, but there’s a lot of history there and not much upside.  The White Sox could also look to get creative and acquire a player who hasn’t played much or any right field, such as Andrew Benintendi, Marcell Ozuna, Tommy Pham, Michael Brantley, Brett Gardner, Jackie Bradley Jr., Jurickson Profar, or Mark Canha.  In some cases it would result in shaky corner outfield defense, but at least they have a Gold Glove center fielder in Luis Robert.

With 2019 third overall pick Andrew Vaughn basically penciled into a first base/DH rotation with Jose Abreu, right field seems the only clear place for the White Sox to upgrade on the position player side.  Certainly the team could hold off for most of 2021 on Vaughn, who has yet to see Double-A pitching, but the team’s brass seems to think he’s close to ready after spending 2020 at the team’s alternate site.  If they were to wait with Vaughn, perhaps players like Nelson Cruz or Michael Brantley would become more viable.

What about the starting rotation?  As James Fegan of The Athletic put it, “October revealed a need for upgrades at the top, not the back end,” after the team was forced to try a bullpen game in Game 3 of the Wild Card series.  At the top end of the market sits Trevor Bauer, though he’d likely require most of the team’s available payroll space.  There’s also the question of whether Bauer would be impressed with La Russa, but the better question might be how he’d gel with new pitching coach Ethan Katz.  Katz was Lucas Giolito’s pitching coach in high school and had a hand in his turnaround in 2019.  If the White Sox are willing to spend the money and let Bauer pitch every fourth day, they’d certainly have a shot.

If the White Sox consider Bauer out of their price range, they could look at a collection of free agent starters who could slot into their hypothetical playoff rotation: James Paxton, Corey Kluber, Chris Archer, and Charlie Morton.  The first three have to prove they’re healthy, while Morton may have geographical preferences that don’t include Chicago.  A market limited on October-worthy starters may require considering lower-ceiling free agents like Masahiro Tanaka, or hitting the trade market in pursuit of players like Lance Lynn or German Marquez.  The White Sox don’t necessarily need to make a major move in the rotation, with Giolito, Dallas Keuchel, Dylan Cease, and Dane Dunning penciled in and Michael Kopech expected to rejoin the team in spring training.

Like just about any playoff hopeful, the White Sox could look to augment their bullpen.  With Colome hitting free agency, the team has several interesting young arms but lacks veteran depth.  Overall, the White Sox could have over $30MM to work with if they maintain last year’s payroll, but that’s no sure thing.

Thus far, the White Sox have done an excellent job locking up their core pieces to position themselves for sustained success.  They have four more years of control of Anderson, and at least five of Robert, Moncada, Jimenez, Vaughn, and Nick Madrigal.  On the pitching side, ace Lucas Giolito is under control through 2023 as an arbitration eligible player.  Giolito is primed for his first multi-million dollar payday in his first trip through arbitration this winter, though there’s great uncertainty as to how salaries will be affected by the 60-game season.  I have a feeling the White Sox would jump at something close to Aaron Nola’s four-year, $45MM contract.

Aside from the La Russa hire, the White Sox could hardly be in a better position heading into 2021.  The club would be well-served to bring in a few more impact players this winter, especially with the majority of teams expected to be conservative.

Marlins Introduce GM Kim Ng

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The Miami Marlins introduced Kim Ng as their new general manager today, streaming live on Twitter and broadcast on MLB Network. Though it was a muted affair because of coronavirus protocols – the magnitude of the moment was anything but. Ng received over 1,000 messages of congratulations “from all walks,” including writers, former players, current managers, scouts, executives, and others. Per Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald (via Twitter), Ng said:

The idea that it has effected this many people is just extraordinary. I thought it would be a big deal, but this is beyond my expectations … People are looking for hope, are looking for inspiration. I’m happy this is part of it.”

The defining characteristic of her journey, said Ng, was fearlessness. She recognized Marlins CEO Derek Jeter for setting an example for the sort of fearlessness needed to be a great player, and for now demonstrating similar fortitude as an executive. As much courage as she needed to interview for position after position over the years, it would seem she landed in the right place. Ng lauded the Miami organization for building a diverse organization:

The information has become more precise, but you can’t ignore the different perspectives needed.”

Involving as many voices as possible was a theme for Ng throughout the day. She spoke about the ease with which she’s been able to communicate within the Marlins organization already, credited to her experience and level of comfort with, among others, Gary Denbo, Jeter, and Don Mattingly, the latter of whom she worked with in Los Angeles.

Interestingly, Ng said that she hasn’t faced much overt resistance in the day-to-day throughout her career, from a discrimination standpoint. She did, however, admit that some of the time when she interviewed for GM roles, she felt it wasn’t exactly on the “up-and-up.” And while she recognized the potential tokenism, she also credited those moments for getting her name out there and furthering the process that ultimately came to fruition with the Marlins.

Her graciousness aside, this moment was a long time coming, and it’s a comfort to many. Per MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter), Ng said:

I thought it would be a big deal, but this is beyond my expectations . . . People are looking for hope. People are looking for inspiration. I’m happy that this is part of it.”

In terms of her plans for the Marlins, being seen as a “pillar of the community” is a priority for the business side, being visible and active as a source for change and growth in Miami. On the baseball side, too much remains in limbo in terms of coronavirus to lay out specific plans for next season at this time. Making baseball decisions, however, will be a collaborative process involving many people from different areas within the organization.

In sum, as the first woman to hold the title of general manager, Ng will forever be an icon and a trailblazer in the sport. As such, Ng’s biggest piece of advice was this:

Tell people what you think…you have your opinion, just voice it.”

Mets Intent On Building Depth

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Given their desire to contend from day one, it’s easy to see the Mets all-in on any of the year’s best available players, including star shortstop Francisco Lindor. But that might not be the course of action that makes the most sense, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Sherman asked Mets president Sandy Alderson about their plans for free agent spending versus trades.

Anderson’s response: “There are only two currencies in baseball — one is players, the other is money. If you are not spending money, you have to spend players. … We have to be careful how we use players in transactions.”

During Steve Cohen’s introductory press conference, Alderson laid out some of the team’s most pressing needs, which included infield defense, bullpen consistency, and a new catching tandem. But he also spoke about building out better depth, and that’s tough to do when trading away prospects for established stars, as was the approach taken by previous GM Brodie Van Wagenen.

Said Anderson (per Sherman): “We’ve got no depth at Double-A and Triple-A, so we are doing all we can to sign six-year minor-league free agents to fill out depth with our top two minor-league teams and provide up-and-down depth for the season.”

Of course, that strategy doesn’t always produce the best collection of ready Major League talent, but as the Dodgers (and others) have shown, the right talent evaluators/developers can absolutely find gems among that pool. Beyond those minor league free agents, the Mets have the opportunity to flex some financial muscle in an offseason where spending capital should be a considerable market advantage. That doesn’t preclude them from making a big splash for someone like Lindor, of course, but it does speak to their priorities this winter, as well as their strategy for contention more broadly.

It might also speak to their timeline. The Mets have yet to hire their president of baseball ops, so Alderson may leave some of the bigger decisions until they are fully-staffed. Collecting minor league free agents won’t have the direction-setting impact of a Lindor-or-equivalent acquisition. Speculatively speaking, Alderson would want to leave as many avenues open as possible until they find the right person to run baseball ops.

Free Agent Notes: Kendrick, Ozuna, ChiSox, Braves, Kahnle

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Infielder Howie Kendrick has been noncommittal about his long-term playing status, suggesting in September he could step away from the game after 15 MLB seasons.  However, Kendrick seemed to hint in an Instagram post this afternoon (h/t to Britt Ghiroli of the Athletic) that he is planning to continue his career, along with firmly indicating that he will continue his charitable endeavors off the field.  “What a season!  Proud to partner with Bank of America and Boys & Girls Clubs of America to help fuel rallies all season long and make a difference for kids in our communities.  See you all next year,” Kendrick wrote.

The Nationals declined their 2021 club option on Kendrick’s services, making the former World Series hero a free agent.  Kendrick only hit .275/.320/.385 with two home runs across 100 plate appearances in 2020, but he’s just a year removed from an elite season at the plate.  A return to Washington wouldn’t seem to be out of the question, and surely other teams would have some interest in signing a veteran with Kendrick’s track record.

More on some other available players…

  • Marcell Ozuna’s free agent market is explored by an MLB.com panel of Mark Bowman, Alyson Footer, Scott Merkin, and Jesse Sanchez, with a particular focus on the White Sox (Merkin’s team on the beat) and Braves (Ozuna’s most recent team, and Bowman’s beat).  The White Sox had some interest in Ozuna last winter but now might be looking for more of a full-time outfielder, Merkin says, since star prospect Andrew Vaughn is expected to step into the first base/DH mix alongside Jose Abreu at some point in 2021.  Since Ozuna profiles more as a DH over the long term, the Braves might have some hesitation over bringing Ozuna back since it isn’t yet known if the National League will adopt the designated hitter for 2021.  However, Bowman also notes that Ozuna quickly became a valued figure in Atlanta due to both his production and clubhouse presence.  Early reports have already suggested that the Braves are interested in re-signing Ozuna, but at least nine other clubs have also inquired about his services.
  • Tommy Kahnle is weighing multiple two-year offers, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (via Twitter).  Kahnle underwent Tommy John surgery in early August, though it isn’t uncommon for recent TJ patients to still land multi-year deals on the open market.  In most of these cases, the player receives the bulk of the salary in the second year of the contract and a minimum salary in the first year, with the understanding that most or all of year one will be spent recovering from the surgery.  Kahnle, Heyman says, is hoping to return by the end of the 2021 season, which would be on the short end of the usual 12-15 month recovery timeline for Tommy John patients.

Cubs Open “To Move Almost Any Veteran” In Trades

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For the third straight offseason, the Cubs are indicating that some roster shuffling could be in order, and they seem closer than ever before to making some notable moves.  As per ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (subscription required), the Cubs have told other teams that “significant turnover” is coming, and “the Cubs are signaling…a willingness to move almost any veteran.”

Javier Baez is reportedly one of the players Chicago is open to at least hearing offers for, which is significant since Baez has been the member of the Cubs core group most often discussed as an extension candidate, rather than as a trade chip.  Baez’s extension talks with the Cubs last offseason didn’t really go anywhere, however, and any attempts at further progress were impeded first by the pandemic and the transactions freeze, and then possibly by Baez’s struggles once the 2020 season got underway.  The shortstop hit only .203/.238/.360 with eight homers over 235 plate appearances, easily his worst performance since his 2014 rookie season.

Taking a look at the Cubs’ pricier veterans, Baez, Kris Bryant, and Kyle Schwarber are all arbitration-eligible for the final time this winter before being eligible for free agency, while catcher Willson Contreras is heading into the second of three arb-eligible years.  Anthony Rizzo is under contract through the 2021 season, Craig Kimbrel is guaranteed through 2021 with a $16MM club/vesting option for 2022, and Yu Darvish, Jason Heyward, Kyle Hendricks, and David Bote are all locked up through at least the 2023 season on longer-term contracts.

Naturally, the phrasing of “almost any veteran” means some trades are more realistic than others.  While a case could be made for the Cubs to sell high on Darvish or Hendricks, for instance, the team is also counting on them as long-term anchors for the rotation, so it’s probably less likely that either of those two pitchers are moved.  Also, in terms of pure due diligence, most front offices are usually open (to some extent) to discuss trades for almost any player, just in case another team comes along with a truly stupendous offer.

The Cubs also made little in the way of noteworthy transactions in either of the past two winters, despite Theo Epstein’s past hints that bigger moves were necessary.  With all these caveats in mind, however, it does seem like the Cubs are finally approaching some level of wider-scale shakeup, as the loss of revenues due to the pandemic may have forced the team’s hand.  Nothing can really be ruled out, whether it’s trading only one highly-paid veteran, or perhaps moving several such players in order to cut payroll.

Four Teams Showing Interest In Jake Odorizzi

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Despite an injury-shortened 2020 season, right-hander Jake Odorizzi is getting a lot of attention on the free agent market.  The Giants, Blue Jays, and Mets have all shown interest in Odorizzi, according to ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (subscription required), and the Twins are also keen to re-sign their former All-Star.

Between a back strain, a blister on his throwing hand, and a chest contusion after being struck by an Alex Gordon line drive, Odorizzi ended up pitching only 13 2/3 innings for the Twins last season, and he didn’t see any action in Minnesota’s two games the wild card series.  Nonetheless, Odorizzi still ranked 11th on MLBTR’s list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, due to both the rather minor nature of those 2020 injuries and his overall solid track record.  Between 2014-19 with the Rays and Twins, Odorizzi averaged 165 innings per season with a 3.88 ERA, 8.7 K/9, and 2.79 K/BB rate.

This isn’t the first time Odorizzi has been linked to the Jays, and in fact Toronto was Odorizzi’s predicted landing spot on the MLBTR top 50.  The Blue Jays have already re-signed Robbie Ray and are known to still be looking for pitching to bolster a rotation that doesn’t offer much certainty beyond Hyun Jin Ryu.  San Francisco and New York are also looking to add arms this winter and have also made early pitching moves, both via the qualifying offer — Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman each accepted the one-year, $18.9MM deals to remain with their former teams.

Beyond their shared need of pitching, these are also three of the teams thought to have some extra spending capacity this winter.  The Giants don’t have much salary committed beyond 2021, the Jays have even lesser salary obligations and corporate ownership, and the Mets are expected to spend big (if not “like drunken sailors“) now that Steve Cohen has bought the team.  It wouldn’t be surprising if we hear of these three specific clubs checking in on more or less every available pitcher on the free agent and trade markets as the Giants, Jays, and Mets gauge how to best deploy their financial resources.

Minnesota doesn’t have quite as glaring a pitching need as the other three clubs, since the Twins have Kenta Maeda, Jose Berrios, Randy Dobnak, and a full season of Michael Pineda lined up for their 2020 rotation.  Still, retaining Odorizzi would only further strengthen that depth as the Twins continue to look for the right roster mix to finally break their postseason losing streak.

Kyuji Fujikawa Retires

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Right-hander Kyuji Fujikawa officially retired earlier this week, after pitching in his final game for the Hanshin Tigers on Tuesday.  The 40-year-old Fujikawa tossed a 1-2-3 inning to close the book on an outstanding pro career that included three Major League seasons.

North American fans best remember Fujikawa from his three seasons with the Cubs and Rangers from 2013-15, though that stint was hardly indicative of Fujikawa at his finest.  Signing with Chicago on a two-year, $9.5MM contract in December 2012, Fujikawa appeared in only 12 games before undergoing Tommy John surgery and missing much of the 2013 and 2014 seasons.  Overall, Fujikawa managed only a 5.74 ERA over 26 2/3 innings in Major League Baseball.

In Japan, however, Fujikawa rose to legendary status over 17 seasons in the Hanshin Tigers bullpen.  Fujikawa posted a 2.08 ERA, 11.7 K/9, 3.60 K/BB rate, and 243 saves over 935 1/3 career innings with the Tigers, acting as both a top setup man and closer.  Fujikawa was a big contributor in the last two Tigers teams to reach the Japan Series (in 2003 and 2005, though the Curse Of The Colonel remained intact).

We at MLBTR wish Fujikawa all the best in retirement, and congratulate him on a fine career.

Transaction Retrospection: The Mike Yastrzemski Trade

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During his first offseason leading the Giants, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi aggressively remade the back half of the 40-man roster. Among that spate of transactions was the unheralded acquisition of outfielder Mike Yastrzemski in a spring training swap with the Orioles.

In March 2019, San Francisco picked up Yastrzemski in exchange for right-hander Tyler Herb. Then 28 years old, Yastrzemski was a former 14th-round pick who had yet to play a major league game. To the extent that there was any fanfare surrounding his acquisition, it had much more to do with his relation to Carl Yastrzemski than to his play.

The deal now looks like a masterstroke. Over his first 636 MLB plate appearances, Yastrzemski has put up a fantastic .281/.357/.535 slash (135 wRC+) and hit 31 home runs. He has been worth about five wins above replacement over the equivalent of one full season. The left-handed hitter earned an eighth-place finish in NL MVP voting this past season thanks to a .297/.400/.568 line.

Herb, on the other hand, didn’t reach the majors during his two years in the Baltimore organization. The 28-year-old elected minor-league free agency earlier this month, per Chris Hilburn-Trenkle of Baseball America.

Even if Yastrzemski takes a bit of a step back from his star-level production, he at least looks like an above-average regular. His late-career breakout is another reminder that even the lowest-profile transactions have some chance of being impactful.

AL East Notes: Blue Jays, Red Sox, Rodriguez

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Some notes from the American League East:

  • Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins has spoken previously about making a high-impact addition to the roster. He reiterated that desire when speaking with Jim Duquette and Jim Bowden of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (Twitter link). Toronto indeed plans to make a run at elite talent this offseason, Atkins stated. That’s easier said than done, of course. Atkins also spoke of a desire to improve the team’s overall run prevention numbers. Trevor Bauer is handily the top free agent pitcher on the market, but the Jays could also look for a high-end defender to keep runs off the board.
  • Atkins also addressed the Blue Jays’ 2021 stadium situation during his MLB Network Radio interview (Twitter link). The current hope is the team returns to the Rogers Centre after playing their 2020 home games at Buffalo’s Sahlen Field. Atkins also left open the possibility of starting the 2021 season outside Toronto and returning to their home city at a later date. No one knows what the COVID-19 rate will look like next April, of course, so the organization is preparing “contingency plans” in case international travel continues to be restricted next year.
  • Last offseason, Eduardo Rodríguez expressed some openness to working out an extension with the Red Sox. There’s no indication the sides ever seriously discussed a potential long-term agreement, but Rodríguez is now just one season away from free agency. The Sox should approach the southpaw about an extension this offseason, opines Rob Bradford of WEEI. Rodríguez missed the entire 2020 season due to a scary bout with myocarditis after contracting COVID-19; fortunately, he’s expected to return at full strength in 2021.

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