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Archives for November 2020

Edwin Encarnacion Planning To Play In 2021

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Despite a tough 2020, Edwin Encarnacion is looking to return next year for his 17th Major League season, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link).  Encarnacion is on the free agent market after the White Sox declined their $12MM club option on his services.

Signed to a one-year, $12MM deal (with that 2021 option) last winter, Encarnacion struggled in Chicago, hitting only .157/.250/.377 with 10 home runs over 181 plate appearances and posting some ugly Statcast metrics.  Encarnacion’s continued production throughout his 30s has already been remarkable and he would hardly be the only slugger to hit a wall in his age-37 season, though there is some reason to believe that a turn-around is possible.  As Heyman notes, Encarnacion is a traditional slow starter, so the shortened season didn’t allow him time to ever really get on track.

With 424 career homers and a long track record of performance prior to 2020, Encarnacion is sure to get some attention on the open market.  However, his chances of landing another deal would greatly improve if the National League adopts the designated hitter again in 2021.  Encarnacion was deployed exclusively as a DH last season and has mostly worked only as a part-time first baseman in the last few years, so it remains to be seen if an NL team would entrust Encarnacion with a regular (or even semi-regular) first base gig without the luxury of a DH spot to keep him fresh.

MLBTR Poll: Potential Shakeup For Cubs

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This could be an offseason of significant change for the Cubs, who may be looking to shake things up after a disappointing finish to the 2020 campaign. The Cubs earned their first NL Central title since 2017, but they succumbed to the upstart Marlins in a two-game sweep during the wild-card round. Now, president of baseball operations Theo Epstein could be looking to reinvent the Cubs’ roster. As Buster Olney of ESPN reported over the weekend, the Cubs are willing “to move almost any veteran.”

It seems more likely that any major subtractions will come from the Cubs’ lineup, not their pitching staff, which features 2020 Cy Young contender Yu Darvish and the bargain-priced Kyle Hendricks. It looks even less probable that reliever Craig Kimbrel, who’s owed a guaranteed $17MM through next season, will end up in a trade.

On the offensive side, it’s realistic to think that any of catcher Willson Contreras, shortstop Javier Baez, third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant or left fielder Kyle Schwarber could be on the move. All of those players have been staples for the Cubs for years, but their days could be numbered if the team’s looking to cut payroll and tinker with its lineup.

The 28-year-old Contreras is coming off his fifth straight productive campaign and, as someone who should make between $5MM and $7.4MM in his second-last season of arbitration, would have value in a trade. Baez was a star middle infielder from 2018-19, but the 27-year-old’s production cratered this past season, and he’ll earn around $11MM in his final trip through arbitration. The 28-year-old Bryant, like Baez, went through a surprisingly difficult 2020. A former NL MVP, Bryant may even be a non-tender candidate, as he’s slated to earn approximately $19MM in his last year of arbitration control. Schwarber, who’s due anywhere from $7MM to $9.3MM, could also be a high-profile non-tender in the wake of a poor season.

Ideally for the Cubs, they’ll be able to find takers for any of these players if they actually are considering moving on from them. Whether it’s via trade or non-tender, though, which player from the Contereras-Baez-Bryant-Schwarber group do you think the Cubs are most likely to get rid of this offseason?

(Poll link for app users)

Pitching Notes: Smyly, Giants, C. Anderson, M. Perez

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The latest news and notes from the mound:

  • Left-hander Drew Smyly came off the open market Monday when he and the Braves reached a one-year, $11MM agreement. That represents a nice raise for someone who signed a one-year, $4MM guarantee with San Francisco last winter, but the 31-year-old Smyly had his sights set even higher than the salary he’ll earn with the Braves. Smyly was requesting a contract in the three-year, $30MM neighborhood before inking his Braves pact, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. That’s an ambitious asking price for a hurler who has dealt with serious injuries throughout his career, and it’s worth noting Smyly struggled mightily as recently as 2019. To Smyly’s credit, though, he had a big-time bounce-back campaign this past season with a 3.42 ERA/2.01 FIP, 14.35 K/9 against 3.08 BB/9, and a 2.6 mph increase in average fastball velocity over 26 1/3 innings.
  • With Smyly out of the picture for the Giants, Grant Brisbee of The Athletic takes a look at a few low-cost starters they could explore to replace him this winter. In Brisbee’s estimation, Chris Archer, Alex Wood, Matt Shoemaker and Anthony DeSclafani could make for intriguing reclamation projects for the Giants’ rotation. Nobody from that group looks especially exciting right now, but neither did Smyly at this time a year ago, and he proved to be a shrewd pickup for San Francisco.
  • There are “several teams” that have shown interest in free-agent right-hander Chase Anderson, Robert Murray of Fansided writes. While Anderson has typically been a useful mid- to back-end starter since he debuted in 2014, the 32-year-old had a brutal 2020 in his lone season with the Blue Jays. Anderson concluded with 33 2/3 innings of 7.22 ERA/6.16 FIP ball, owing largely to a horrific 28.9 percent home run-to-fly ball ratio, though he did post impressive strikeout and walk numbers (10.16 K/9, 2.67 BB/9). Toronto had a $9.5MM option over Anderson for 2021, but it bought him out for $500K.
  • As is the case with Anderson, there is more than one team interested in free-agent southpaw Martin Perez, according to Murray. Perez spent 2020 with the Red Sox and recorded a 4.50 ERA/4.88 FIP with 6.88 K/9 and 4.06 BB/9 across 62 frames. The Red Sox then bought out the 29-year-old for $500K in lieu of paying him a $6.85MM option for next season.

Sugar Land Skeeters To Become Astros’ Triple-A Affiliate

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The Sugar Land Skeeters will become the Astros’ new Triple-A affiliate, Mark Berman of Fox 26 reports. The two sides reached an agreement in which the Astros will have an ownership stake in the Skeeters, according to Berman. The length of the deal isn’t known yet.

This is a big step for the Skeeters, a Texas-based team that has been an independent club in the Atlantic League since its inception in 2010. They’ve had a number of familiar major league names on their roster since then, including Roger Clemens, Rafael Palmeiro and Scott Kazmir. With no minors campaign in 2020, the Skeeters launched the four-team Constellation Energy League, which they won with help from some ex-major leaguers you may recognize when looking at their roster.

The fact that the Astros have a new Triple-A team will leave the Round Rock Express with some uncertainty. Round Rock spent the previous two years as Houston’s top minor league club, though it only got one season of play (2019) because of the pandemic.

Mike Clevinger To Undergo Tommy John Surgery; 2-Year Deal Official

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The Padres announced that right-hander Mike Clevinger will undergo Tommy John surgery. He’ll miss the entire 2021 season as a result.

This is stunning news, though it won’t bring an end to Clevinger’s run with the Padres. The team announced that the two-year deal it was working on with Clevinger last week is now official, so he will remain with the organization for his final pair of seasons of club control. Clevinger will earn $11.5MM on the pact, Joel Sherman of the New York Post was among those to report. Unsurprisingly, it’s a backloaded agreement that will see Clevinger take home a $2MM salary in 2021 and $6.5MM in 2022, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network. He also received a $3MM signing bonus. Clevinger will earn $250K in incentives if he starts five games in ’22 and another $250K if he starts 10, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets.

Now 29 years old, Clevinger has been one of the majors’ most effective starters since he broke out in Cleveland in 2017. But the Indians decided to part with Clevinger this past August when they sent him to the Padres in a mega-deal before the trade deadline. Clevinger then helped the Padres to their first playoff berth since 2006, throwing 19 innings of six-run ball with 9.0 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9, though he battled elbow issues in his brief debut with the club. He only threw one playoff inning, which came in a start against the Dodgers in the NLDS, before departing.

Little did the Padres know that Clevinger’s most recent outing on Oct. 6 would be his last until at least the start of the 2022 season. Until now, it seemed safe to assume Clevinger would rejoin Dinelson Lamet and Zach Davies near the top of the Padres’ rotation next year. In light of this news, though, it’s unclear how the Padres will fill out their starting five beyond Lamet, Davies and Chris Paddack. There are some in-house possibilities in MacKenzie Gore, Luis Patino, Adrian Morejon, Joey Lucchesi and Ryan Weathers. Otherwise, the Padres could turn to the free-agent market or look to acquire help via trade. Either way, losing Clevinger for all of next year looks like a devastating blow for the up-and-coming San Diego franchise.

Mets Interested In Marcell Ozuna

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Led by new owner Steve Cohen, the Mets are expected to make at least one major splash during free agency. That could come in the form of outfielder Marcell Ozuna, whom they’re interested in signing, Ken Davidoff of the New York Post reports. They’re one of many teams eyeing the 30-year-old slugger.

Ozuna may be a luxury for the Mets, who already have a few offensively adept, outfield-capable players in Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil and Dominic Smith. But at least one of those players could become a trade chip if the Mets sign Ozuna, and as Davidoff notes, picking the right-handed hitter up would provide some more balance to a left-leaning lineup. Of course, before Ozuna signs anywhere, he and the rest of the league may have to find out whether the universal designated hitter will stick around in 2021. Ozuna spent the majority of this past season at DH for the Braves.

Ozuna, also a former Marlin and Cardinal who has spent a large portion of career in the Mets’ division – the NL East – has always been an above-average offensive player. His production went up several notches in 2020, though, as he produced a remarkable line of .338/.431/.636 (179 wRC+) with an NL-leading 18 home runs in 267 plate appearances. Ozuna was also a Statcast darling, ranking near the top of the majors in a handful of important categories. It couldn’t have been a much better contract year for Ozuna, who’s not burdened by a qualifying offer and who MLBTR predicts will land a four-year, $72MM deal.

Brewers Open To Moving Josh Hader

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The Brewers are looking for offensive upgrades this winter, and they have at least one significant bargaining chip. Milwaukee is open to offers for elite reliever Josh Hader, per Robert Murray of Fansided.

As central as Hader has been to this run of Brewers contention – and as unique a talent as he has been – the Brewers have to at least listen to offers. He’s projected to make $5.65MM this season, and he has another two seasons of control remaining. Now might be the peak of Hader’s trade value.

For the Brewers, he might be a luxury they can no longer afford. Even at his most dominant, Hader maxed out at 2.7 bWAR during the regular season. There’s additional value for Hader’s role in the postseason, however, evidenced by his dominant run of 10 scoreless innings in the 2018 playoffs that played a major role in getting the Brewers to the NLCS. For an NL contender looking to balance to scales against the  juggernaut Dodgers, a weapon like Hader could present a solution.

Besides, it just so happens that the Brewers produced another high-end reliever in Rookie-of-the-Year Devin Williams. As tantalizing as the pair would be at the tail-end of games, the Brewers have other holes to fill and a limited payroll. They had a roughly $97MM payroll in 2020, and they’re already close to that number with arbitration projections for 2021. They could non-tender Corey Knebel to open up about $5MM, but he’s also a high-end bullpen piece at his best – which he wasn’t in 2020 with a 6.08 ERA in 13 1/3 innings.

If they’re serious about upgrading the offense, which Murray notes finished 26th in runs and 24th in OPS, moving a piece like Hader might provide a path. Naysayers may point to the mph he lost on his fastball this season, but he was still among the very best in the game at limiting hard contact (85.4 mph EV), avoiding barrels (14.7 Barrel%), and striking out opposing hitters (39.7 K%) – not to mention a 2.94 xERA that ranks among the top 10% in the game.

2021-22 MLB Free Agents

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The following players are currently eligible for free agency for the 2021-22 offseason.  Players’ ages for the 2022 season are listed in parentheses.

Players on this list generally need to have at least 50 plate appearances or 20 innings pitched in the 2021 season to be included.

Updated 4-4-22

Catchers

Wilson Ramos (34)
Kevan Smith (34)

First Basemen

Asdrubal Cabrera (36)

Second Basemen

Joe Panik (31)
Eric Sogard (36)

Shortstops

Mike Freeman (34)

Third Basemen

Asdrubal Cabrera (36)
Starlin Castro (32)
Jose Rondon (28)

Left Fielders

Brett Gardner (38)

Center Fielders

Jarrod Dyson (37)
Brett Gardner (38)
Danny Santana (31)

Right Fielders

Michael Conforto (29)
Adam Eaton (33)
Brian Goodwin (31)
Matt Joyce (37)

Designated Hitters

Khris Davis (34)
Mitch Moreland (36)

Starting Pitchers

Brett Anderson (34)
Jake Arrieta (36)
Trevor Cahill (33)
Johnny Cueto (36)
Mike Foltynewicz (30)
J.A. Happ (39)
Matt Harvey (33)
Wade LeBlanc (37)

Right-Handed Relievers

Dellin Betances (34)
John Curtiss (29)
Chris Devenski (31)
Rafael Dolis (34)
Oliver Drake (35)
Luke Farrell (31)
Jesse Hahn (32)
Ryne Harper (33)
Tommy Hunter (35)
Brandon Kintzler (37)
Evan Marshall (32)
Yusmeiro Petit (37)
Nick Ramirez (32)
Richard Rodriguez (32)
Trevor Rosenthal (32)
Edgar Santana (30)
Burch Smith (32)
Josh Tomlin (37)

Left-Handed Relievers

Ross Detwiler (36)
Tony Watson (37)

Braves Sign Drew Smyly

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The Atlanta Braves announced the signing of southpaw Drew Smyly to a one-year, $11MM deal, per a team release (via Twitter). Smyly is represented by Frontline Athlete Management.

The 31-year-old Smyly has appeared in the Majors for the Tigers, Rays, Rangers, Phillies, and Giants, accumulating a 4.13 ERA/4.15 FIP across 188 games (111 starts) totaling 710 2/3 innings over seven years.

He also spent 2018 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery in the Chicago Cubs organization. The Cubs had signed Smyly to a two-year deal as he recovered, which kicked off a convoluted set of trades between the Cubs and Rangers. First, the Cubs acquired Cole Hamels from the Rangers in July of 2018. As part of that deal, the Rangers agreed to pay Hamels’ $6MM buyout if the Cubs chose not to pick up his $20MM option in 2019. Rather than pay the buyout, the Rangers took Smyly and his $7MM contract off the Cubs’ hands so that Chicago could afford Hamels’ option – which they did indeed execute.

Smyly, unfortunately, didn’t last the year in Texas. The Rangers released Smyly on June 25th after he stumbled to a 8.42 ERA in 51 1/3 innings. He would sign with the Phillies to finish 2019.

Smyly and Hamels again cross paths here, with Smyly presumably taking Hamels’ place in Atlanta after a year in which Hamels missed all but one start due to injury. If Hamels somehow ends up signing with the Giants (not inconceivable), their double-helical careers can continue to intertwine.

Smyly, meanwhile, looks like he might have finally returned to his early-career form – or better. The 31-year-old posted a 3.45 ERA across 26 1/3 innings in 2020 with 14.4 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9. He finished in the 89th percentile for Whiff% and 97th percentile for K%, per Statcast. His four-seamer also exhibited some out-of-character giddy-up, averaging 93.6 mph, a 2.5 mph jump from the year prior. As small a sample as that may be, it was enough for Smyly to parlay his one-year, $4MM deal with the Giants into a contract more than double in value with the Braves.

Smyly comes with a fair amount of injury risk, but the Braves know how to handle some injury uncertainty. They are coming off a season in which they experienced near total rotation turnover (while still managing to come within a game of winning the pennant). If Smyly can perform anywhere near his 2020 level – when he limited opposing hitters to a .198/.261/.297 line – the Braves will happily cash in on that upside. They do intend to place him into the rotation, per the Athletic’s David O’Brien (via Twitter).

The concern, beyond injury, is that Smyly might turn back into the pumpkin that logged a 6.24 ERA between the Rangers and Phillies in 2019. If you consider his time with the Rangers an aberration due to his recent recovery from Tommy John, however, Smyly’s combined ERA between the Phillies and Giants is a much more palatable 4.15 ERA over 89 innings. The Braves would take that kind of production in a rotation alongside Max Fried, Mike Soroka, Ian Anderson, and Kyle Wright.

Orioles Receive Miguel Padilla To Complete Hector Velázquez Trade

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12:18 pm: The Orioles will receive right-hander Miguel Padilla from the Astros, the Orioles announced. Per their announcement on Twitter: “Padilla, 18, was originally signed by the Astros on November 26, 2018, as an International free agent out of Carora, Venezuela. He appeared in 19 games for the DSL Astros in 2019, pitching to a 4-1 record with a 2.08 ERA (6 ER/26.0 IP) and 26 strikeouts.“ As noted below, the move isn’t likely to affect the Orioles’ 40-man roster.

7:26 am: The Orioles are close to completing a July 29th trade that sent Hector Velázquez to the Astros for a player to be named later, per Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com.

The funny thing about this trade is that Velázquez never appeared in a game for the Orioles, and he hasn’t appeared in a game for the Astros either. The Orioles claimed Velázquez off waivers from the Red Sox in March. He was part of the O’s original 60-man player pool, though he had been outrighted off their 40-man roster just before Opening Day.

The trade was a depth move for the Astros, but Velázquez never got the call. Still, they’ll be sending something back to Baltimore in the near future. The deal still makes some sense for Houston, as with just 2.017 days of service time, the Astros now control the right-hander’s rights for another four seasons.

In parts of three seasons with the Red Sox, Velazquez showed flashes of promise, including a 3.18 ERA over 85 innings during the Red Sox’ 2018 championship season. The swingman has never produced thick-enough strikeout rates, however, and when his walk rate rose from 2.8 BB/9 in 2018 to 4.5 BB/9 in 2019, his ERA rose with it to a 5.43 ERA. By Fielding Independent Pitching, however, his 2018 season (4.15 FIP) was neither as good as it seemed, nor was his 2019 season (4.74 FIP) quite as bad as it seemed. He’ll be an option for Houston’s bullpen in 2021.

Both teams are trying to finalize their 40-man roster additions before Friday, at which point any players eligible for December’s Rule 5 draft will be left unprotected. It’s likely that Baltimore’ return won’t feature a player in that field, but it’s certainly possible, in which case Baltimore would surely prefer a resolution in the coming days.

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