The Reds are discussing right-hander Luis Castillo in trade talks with other teams, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). He joins Sonny Gray as high-end Cincinnati starters to come up in conversations this winter. The price on both hurlers remains “appropriately high,” Heyman says.
There’s no indication a Castillo deal is close or even especially likely. Teams are constantly in discussions with rival clubs about various players and potential trade frameworks. Most of those talks don’t result in deals; many aren’t publicly reported.
It’s no surprise other teams are calling to gauge Castillo’s potential availability. The 28-year-old has posted a 3.35 ERA/3.42 FIP across 260.2 innings since the start of the 2019 season. Of the 137 starters with at least 100 innings over the last two years, Castillo ranks 20th in park-adjusted ERA. Among that group, he places nineteenth in strikeout rate (29.4%), thirty-first in K% – BB% (19.8 percentage points) and fourth in ground ball rate (56.1%). Only Jacob deGrom, Blake Snell, Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer have gotten swings and misses at a higher clip.
Castillo’s raw stuff supports those results. He’s one of the sport’s hardest-throwing starters, coming off a season in which he averaged a career-high 97.8 MPH on his sinker. He backs that up with an elite changeup and an effective slider. Castillo certainly looks to have cemented himself among the game’s top arms. He’d be a massive upgrade to any team’s rotation.
It has been a difficult offseason for a Reds club obviously looking to scale back payroll. Cincinnati traded Raisel Iglesias to the Angels for a meager return to get most of his $9.125MM salary off the books. They were one of the more aggressive teams to make cuts at the non-tender deadline and have all but ruled out a reunion with Trevor Bauer. There have also been plenty of rumors about a potential move to get Gray’s $10MM salary off the books, although obviously nothing has come together on that front.
Even with the Reds looking to cut costs, there won’t be any urgency to move Castillo. The right-hander is eligible for arbitration for the first of three times this winter and projected for a bargain salary in the $3-5MM range.
Deivi and Gleyber. Done deal.
so who they signing to play SS?
Simmons. Get some defense in the infield.
I’m just impressed with the first Yankees fan I’ve seen make a reasonable offer – date I say, even an overpay (only because I think Gleybar will be better). I didn’t have to wade through third-rate over hyped prospects!!
Some yankee fan rn is thinking, “Replace Gleyber with Andujar and it’s a fair trade”
Little Deivi is overhyped.. yes you did..
More like replace Gleyber with a bag of potato chips. Don’t you realize Frazier/Andujar should get you any teams best superstar????
I hope you’re joking
hahaha, oh you were not joking ? sorry
@gson- you never saw Little Deivi ever pitch
Lol so true
No. Bring back DiDi. Should have never let him leave. An elite defender and a quality left handed bat. Something the Yanks’ righty-heavy lineup needs. Plus, he’s a good leader in the clubhouse.
Lol Miguel Andujar has 1/10th the value you think he does. Maybe even less. The Yankees would have traded him already if teams thought he was a good return.
Clint Frazier is good but he wont neccesarily get you a Superstar on his own. Especially not a Luis Castillo caliber player.
Unless the league/lifetime Yankee fan commissioner Manfred brokers a heavily Yankee-favored deal. Nothing new.
Yes,, I have seen Little Deivi pitch.. he won’t last.. and what he has shown already is no more than a BOR on a second division team..
Perhaps you might answer your own question…
Amen, brother.
as a Phillies fan I was thrilled when they signed DiDi last year and bummed when they didn’t even at least give him a QO. He was the Phillies best hitter last year.
As a RS fan, I love Didi for the Yankees. Dude is a complete professional, He’s the go-to SS for the teams not looking to spend $200M on guys like Lindor.
But for you guys, I think you have to stick with Segura and address the BP needs and a #5 SP. I think you’re closer than it looks.
Gleyber is not playing SS in any case.
where is he playing if DJ comes back?
I would assume First and then when Voit Isn’t DH he would play second and you would slide Gleyber into the Dh I guess?
Stanton is stuck in the DH because he can’t play outfield without getting hurt
So what would outfield be Fraizer Judge and Hicks? Uh oh, Gleyber would have to play SS.
Yeah that’s why I think gleyber is expendable to add pitching.
Yeah, whos SS?
Sign Simmons
Ok, so sacrifice power for a defensive shortstop?
Yes. There’s enough offense in that lineup to survive without Gleyber’s bat. The infield defense was atrocious last season, and Simmons could help fix that. Not to mention that the starting pitching depth is so shallow that adding Castillo would be HUGE.
Read your comment to yourself then realize you know nothing about baseball. Gleyber the yankees DH wow now I heard it all and stanton the 300 million bench player or they trading him for trout.
Stanton ain’t getting you anywhere near trout. He’s not going to be traded
Whos on second?
No Whos on first… but What is on second
I think you are about to experience a Yankees fan shark attack because when they see you included Gleber Torres, they will be all over it with negative comments. Let’s watch as it unfolds. =D
Just Torres should be enough! As a Yankees fan but probably to get the red to make the deal throw in deivi
Perhaps you missed the earlier post. The Yanks re- signed Adam Warren. No need for Castillo now. Lol
Warren is not, never will be Castillo. As a die-hard pinstripes fan, I’m guessing that even you know that.
You missed the sarcasm…
Deivi Garcia lol… Please stop
@Logan28- Maybe Deivi, but Gleyber will never be traded.
Gleyber has no where to go if they bring DJ back. Sign a shortstop that can play defense and get one of the best and cheapest pitchers in the league. No way the Reds part with him without getting Gleyber.
@Logan28- forget Castillo then. They would never even ask for Torres because he isn’t available. He’ll be be playing shortstop for the Yankees next season especially if DJ resigns.
Cashman keeps harping on the fact that Gleyber is much better at 2B and there were rumors that the yanks were in on Simmons and Didi, so I’m not sure the Yankees are set on keeping Gleyber at shortstop.
Torres to third if they sign a SS and Gil gets traded or goes to the bench. Problem solved.
Yea GM’s never use the media to try and steer people away from their real goals…
@ dpsmith
I’m not sure why no one realizes that. This is the ultimate propaganda machine. There is no chance a writer will know what is happening in the GM suite, unless the GM tells them.
I assume the quid pro quo is that the GM asks the writer to float a rumor, and the GM returns that favor by giving that reporter the inside scoop when something real happens.
we agree 100% sir. Especially now where 1st one with the story wins the prize. Who cares about accuracy right?
I actually don’t care. It makes the off-season more exciting when you have trade rumors, and the all-important ‘leaks’.
But some of the writers just make up weird stuff that they think works, but makes absolutely no sense.
Take Moose and Castellanos too.
Surely their agents are calling the Reds GM and saying “We didn’t sign up for this. Move my client ASAP.”
that’s going to cost loads
losing Castillo, Gray and Bauer all at once seems like a terrible move for a team just in the playoffs. Yes, expanded playoffs but still….Why would they do this?! Are they really that far off to start another mini-rebuild ?
Yeah, it’s sad. Been looking forward to a decent run for the last thirty years. Starting to feel like a Cubs fan at this point…
Except without the great 6 year run & WS title.
I blame the Giants coming back in the 2012 NLDS. Hope y’all get some relief. Its abysmal almost to be a fan of a NL central team right now.
Yeah only took 100 years
Don’t forget they lost DeSclafani to the Giants. Even if they lose Bauer, Gray, and Castillo the Reds would probably open next season with Miley, Mahle, Antone, Lorenzen (he is expected to start next season), and Hoffman. Not sure why the Reds are trying to jettison everyone the can. Apparently they are content blowing things up after one postseason run
They’re not going to move BOTH Castillo and Gray. I. fact, I doubt they move either, just gauging the market. But if they do move one it’s more likely to be Gray.
You don’t gain much in saving money by trading Castillo …. your going to strip the rotation down to even just 1 of Gray or Castillo … just trade them both …there’s no point they won’t compete with just 1 of them … it would be tough with 2.
Sucks to be a Cincy sports fan. Most other towns get to have a chance … not Cincy … we look forward to opening day , then our annual top 5 pick in the NFL draft ..2021 will be special , as we get to see when Burrow will get off his crutches.
If you’re gonna blow it up, blow it up good. Lol
yea some people still think the owners made money this season….
Stop it.
Wow. This has angels archetype all over it. Any 3 of Marsh, demeters and Jordyn Adam’s would probably do it. That would be crazy.
Reds need a bigger headliner to move an early arb guy with Castillo’s talent
Adell+Fletcher+Marsh are the equal value here and what the Reds will ask, no way the Angels do that.
Luis Castillo has massive, massive trade value.
Castillo is to inconsistent to get Fletcher Adell and Marsh.
No way. Even the most insane trades are never more than one headliners. The Angels have 2 top 25 propsects in Adell and Marsh and then 2 25-100 in Demeters and Jordyn Adams. Id imagine it would be one from each pot and maybe a lotto ticket. There is a ceiling to how much young talents ends up in most of these types of trades.
You might feel that way because many notable trades that we notice are 1 year rental’s for players that already have multi year deals. Castillo isn’t any of that. League minimum and isn’t an FA until 2024.
Exactly! This isn’t a one year rental, and just some innings eater whose slightly past his prime… it’s a stud 1/2 on any staff in the majors if the angels want him it’s costing Marsh/Adell, Detmers, someone like fletcher Or even Canning to get it done… Castillo could legit win multiple cy young’s the rest of the way with his stuff… and I he Marlins traded him twice! Bahahah
No, you think about the Miguel Cabrera trade or Yelich there is an upper limit to all these deals. I’m sure you believe that. Also pitchers always fetch less than hitters in these types of deals.
No homer’ism, I challenge to to find one deal ever where more than one true headliner went back.
Fwiw, Marsh has not cracked the top 25 on any major prospect list yet. He’s in the 30-40 range at BA, FG and the Athletic (Law). MLB Pipeline has him at #73.
Adams and Detmers are not consensus top 100 guys yet either – most lists consider them bubble guys just outside the top 100. Only FG favors Adams with a #72 rank, and Detmers makes roughly half the lists in the 75-85 range, due to 2020 draft position. If guys like Marsh and Adams were more highly thought of in the market, we probably would have seen a trade by now.
The Angels are not a great fit for Castillo because they don’t have much high ceiling pitching to return in trade. They’re a better match for Gray, whose salary and remaining contract years make a prospect like Marsh more value equivalent. Alternatively, the Angels probably have enough trade capital to get a Snell swap done, if they’re willing to sacrifice someone like Adell or Ohtani in the package.
You do realize that Castillo has 3 yrs of CHEAP control left, right? You’d need to include either Adell or Marsh + both Demeters AND J. Adams + a lottery ticket for a realistic chance to get Castillo.
where more than one true headliner went back.
———————————–
Sale for Moncada and Kopech
Colon for Sizemore, Lee and Philips
@bkbkbkbkbk. Why do you have to be like that. We could just have a pleasant baseball conversation. Insults like homer’ism doesn’t ad anything. Let’s just keep it friendly, okay?
Try and think of the last player that was this young, this cheap, this talented and has this many years of control that was traded? Can you think of one because I am coming up short. I’m not saying they don’t exist. Just can’t think of one because they are that rare.
Having said that, you don’t have to go far to think of an imperfect example that still demonstrates my point; Mookie Betts. He was traded for Alex Verdugo and Jeter Downs. Though Verdugo was thought of as the headliner, Downs himself was a top 100 prospect and could have been a headliner in a deal as well. Betts was just a one year rental. Castillo isn’t a free agent until 2024.
Sale for Moncada has so far been pretty even for both sides. Red Sox won a championship and Moncada helped get the White Sox to the playoffs for the first time since 2008.
Sizemore, Phillips, Lee, and Lee Stevens (less we forget he was part of the deal) was actually a massive overpay for an Expos team making one last ditch effort at a postseason run before MLB decided to relocate them
Castillo and Gray are both much more valuable in trade than Snell. Better pitchers and less expensive. Snell is not in the top 50 on the list of park adjusted ERA and FIP referenced in this piece by Franco.
fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&…
Quintana fetched 2 top 25 prospects+.
Doubt he will be that “CHEAP” through arbitration if he continues to pitch well
They were not at the time both that.
I was saying I was not being a homer.
Also, as I thought about it over the day, the rumor doesnt make sense. Id stand to belive that the deal would be Castillo and Moose or Suarez and with the full freight going back given the salary shedding. If that were the case it would probably halve Castillos value and Id imagine a deal that looked like Demeters and English or Adams would make sense.
Adell+Fletcher+Marsh is probably a bit of an overpay for the Angels, though not by much. More to the point, it’s hard to imagine Cinci trading for any package that doesn’t include young controllable pitching.
A more sensible package for them from the Angels would be something like Adell+Detmers+Chris Rodriguez. That’s not a trade that Baseball Trade Values is going to favor, because prospect lists have not adjusted in the Covid era to match projection – but I think scouts would consider Rodriguez the Angels’ top arm, and he’s going to shoot up lists in 2021 if he’s fully healthy, as he’s a potential frontline talent.
Not that I think that such a swap is likely in any event. There are more rational targets in the market for both teams.
Adell , jermai Jackson, Patrick Sandoval, whill the reds pool the trigger
Hahaha!!!!!!!! good joke. Fletcher and Castillo are of equal value. Adding Adell and Marsh is a sure way of new GM Perry Minasian to get canned. Look up the stats if you think I’m lying.
Besides trout next untouchable player is Fletcher, his off limits in a Castillo deal probably rengifo or Jamahi jones
I dont think Regifo is untouchable. He was in the proposed Joc Peterson trade with the Dodgers
I agree he has enormous value and they can ask what they want, but no way the Angels are moving Fletch..They love him and fans do too.
You probably didn’t look at his years of control. You could probably throw Adel into that list of three and it wouldn’t be enough. There’s a reason young, productive, low cost players with several years of control aren’t moved.
The Angels are not trading Fletcher.
Then they are not getting Castillo.
Reds fans are delusional, both management has said that angels aren’t trading from majors roster. Fletcher won’t be in deal. I’d think something around adell, chris Rodriguez and a player in there 10-20 range would be ample to get Castillo. Adell was a top 5 prospect before call up.
Angefanforlife. Damm straight we’re not trading Fletcher. That guy is our 2B the next 12 years. Great lead off hitter and great with the glove.
They are not trading Castillo … book it
Heads up a Fletcher for Castillo trade makes sense. They are about equal in value and Fletcher has an extra year of team control.
youre majorly wrong if you don’t think Adells gone. Marsh is what they projected Winker to be when he was a top 30 prospect.
Maddon said yesterday that Adell is going to be an Angel long term, that he just needs seasoning in the minors. I think we could all tell that he was rusty when he was called up in August. Kid has real skills and you could see that occasionally like the home run he stole and the two homer game. Like Maddon said, he just needs to be on a regular training and playing schedule, not the one they had in 2020. There is absolutely no way the Angels trade him before they see what Marsh can do in the upper minors for a full season.
They’re tryna cut costs and he’s one of if not their most cost effective asset lol
Tryna? What language is that?
Written colloquial
Lol why do you have to complain about something so insignificant as the way someone types.
It’s common “hood” or “street” lingo. By using “tryna” instead of “trying to”, young JacobSigel1025 is able to save four characters of typing — time he can use on other important activities in life.
wow youre such a superior intellectual too. him I bet you a god irl
Superstar- nice try tryna to make sense of stupidity
Yet Jacob had more contribution as it is an actual baseball take than your need to be grammar police. So there’s that.
Uh… I think we got it man
I would guess that there’s one specific team trying to work out a trade. A team close, young assets, and cutting payroll at same time. Twins maybe? Ray’s potentially, though not an expert on their prospects.
Those 2 teams have the 2 highest rated SS prospects in baseball, and that’s what the Reds need.
Would the Reds be interested in Polanco instead of Lewis? Polanco is a quality regular and has a relatively friendly team deal with a couple options through ‘24 I think. Maybe throw in a quality non balazovic pitching prospect.
I have no idea who they are targeting, but if they are moving Castillo, it’s going to be big, he’s not expensive and has 3 more seasons of control. If they were only looking to cut payroll they’d be trading More expensive players and adding in some mon y to offset the players current value, like the did with Iglesias.
The Reds owner should be forced to sell. Any owner who slashes player salaries should be automatically forced to sell. Should be a MLB rule, the team salary amount must go up every year by a minimum 5%. What a travesty they are allowed to do this.
Go home Marty you are drunk
Why?? What logic/reason indicates that payrolls should go up 5% a year?? Certainly not revenue going up!
Marty is loco. No team would ever “go for it” in a particular year and jack up payroll…..because the Marty rule would force them to go for it plus 5% every year. This rule would force payrolls to stay low. Just let the markets work people……
why should teams be forced to spend also you don’t really know the market of these teams especially those in the midwest. don’t get wrong i wish the cards would spend more but they shouldn’t be mandated to do so. yes owners are rich but most of them own other businesses and mostly like own a sports team just for bragging rights or a hobby. just because there billionaires just like the rest of us they probably set limits on there hobbies. lastly a lot of the teams in the midwest derive there income from game day sales i’m sure most of them teams have ok to bad tv deals. only teams in the midwest calling bs on crying poor is chc and stl both have tv deals in place that pretty much covers 100% of the players salaries everything else for them is pure profit.
A minimum of 5% each year? You do realize that Major League Baseball would not exist in the United States if that was implemented, right? The Dodgers would have to be paying $541,467,000 by 2025. Ticket prices for outfield bleacher seats would be potentially over $1000 and a soda+hot dog would be like $100 if that were the case.
put the pipe down marty
another fool who thinks just because someone is successful, must mean they are holding him back…
McWilliams
Brach
Familia
Magnum
For
Castillo
Senzel
??? Give or take pieces
lol
Sorry Mets fan but familia and brach are worth a half of a pretzel and those prospects are about 2% worth Castillo and Denzel combined lol
I agree
Typical Met fan wants to send you rowboats for your battleship.
We’re sick of being fleeced. Even before Sandy’s first run, every other GM sees the Mets as an easy target to manipulate with fans and the media goading the team into overpaying.
What do the reds need to add?
2020 Draft choices, probably.
Young high end talent and a SS.
Not a AAAA player masquerading as Major League ready talent.
I would say just remove Castillo and Senzel and that should be a fair trade.
Lol
Ok, so you don’t understand MLB trade values. Please at least start with the baseball trade values generator (google it) – they say for the Mets to get Castillo and Senzel they can get them with a package of McNeil, Mauricio and Nimmo – you weren’t even close to this. Familia? Come on bro, catch up.
Metsfan, I don’t understand why you are suggesting this trade except maybe you didn’t notice Castillo’s years of control and pre-arb status? Because this trade package is far, FAR short of what you need. Two relievers with almost no value and two prospects, one of them pretty much burried in your own teams top 30 (McWilliams) and one that isn’t in your team top 30 at all (Magnum).
This is the kind of trade that if the Mets pulled off, it would hurt your feelings. We’re talking Mauricio, Alvarez, Batty and Allan and that might not be enough. This guy has a lot of value.
Lol I was joking but your package of those 4 kids might be as bad
First of all I was clearly kidding. And next, if the Mets do the deal you suggested I’d be pissed… Mets wouldn’t do that.
BTV is a joke.
No, don’t use that. I see you say ridiculous dumb stuff literally every day because you’re using that thing, Marty. Do not use the “baseball trade values generator”, folks. Don’t google it.
Agreed. Never use ‘Baseball Trade Values Generator’ to formulate trades, unless you’re curious how unrealistically cheap you could add Mike Trout to your favorite team for. Give me 5 minutes and I could put Trout in Pittsburgh for a package that Pirates fans would be doing backflips over using that thing.
Damn, what an obviously dumb troll attempt my guy
They are leaving it, since jed Lowrie is a free agent and would be a player and contract the Reds would want back. I heard the Reds want to trade their ace pitcher to add more salary with “has been” players.
That trade is so awful that it offends me.
I’m a met fan and I figure at the very least gimenez and Allan would need to be in a deal to get Castillo… then prob an additional high upside prospect like Ginn or Szapucki… they’ll want three young quality controllable pieces
Now you’re talking. Thank you Ma4170. Faith in the Mets fanbase restored.
They did trade away Iglasias for pennies on the dollar, so it is possible they take under value. Then again, there’s also a lot more interest for a young starting pitcher.
I’d be curious to see if JD Davis does anything for Cincinatti. Probably would help if DH was back in 2021 (heard sports radio speculate it’ll be part of negotiations for 2022 season).
Iglasias for pennies on the dollar?
Iglesias is not worth his salary. Nine Million?
No team would give Hand 10 mil so I’d say Iglesias is slightly overpaid.
It was clearly a joke. I’m losing faith in this blog that so many people took it seriously
You can’t keep saying ‘it’s clearly a joke’ when it isn’t THAT clear. You proposed a Trade on a Trade proposal site; of course we are all going to run with the football. Do better to expect better.
Bro the trade package was horrible. You should be smart/old enough to realize when someone is just playing around and they aren’t.
I’m just saying, 30 people responded to you so maybe it wasn’t so clear. You laid out a proposal and included question marks to insinuate the aforementioned proposal was workable and people responded as such. There is no sarcasm font here.
You constantly propose preposterous things on this site. It’s hard to know when you’re joking or not.
@MetsFan22 Phew! Thought you were serious.
Logan. If u think Iglesias is slightly over paid, then the Angels got him at the right price of 7m then. Reds threw in money and they got rid of an RP they should of dumped.
Before this. Everything else I said was what I believe. I’m sorry you just look at a 60 games season and not the actual roster of teams.
what closer is?
Ma4170, as a fellow Mets fan, if I could persuade the Reds to take Amed Rosario instead of Gimenez, I’d totally do that deal. Rosario, Allan and Szapucki for Castillo? Sounds like a great deal to me.
But why the heck would the Reds do that? Even with Gimenez instead of Rosie, they’ve no reason to do that trade.
Lol!!! Mets fans are absolutely delusional.
I don’t care what it takes, MAKE IT HAPPEN RANGERS!!! I might even consider throwing Huff in there, that’s how huge this is! I need to go check how many years are left on his arb though…
You dramatically overrate the Rangers trade value and underrate Castillo’s massive, massive trade value. Like, dude, he is one of the most valuable trade pieces there is.
BTV says if the Rangers want Castillo, then the only way they get him is for Gallo, Huff, Jung, Leclerc, Lowe and Taveras. 6 for 1. No way the Rangers do that.
I said that same thing below in the comments earlier. Don’t really want Castillo.
Please. Stop with the BTV. That site is a joke.
A 95.4% acceptance rate with a margin of error of 1.5 would suggest that the site is a little better than a “joke”
Why ruin any retooling the ranger have done for one piece? They aren’t one piece away from contending
Exactly, add Gray and Castillo to the rotation and the Rangers still won’t win more than 70 games in 162 game season.
Maybe close to .500 kid.
I don’t see it, I don’t think Seattle or LA gets close to the playoffs either but they’re both quite a bit ahead of the Rangers even with some big additions.
The only reason I could possibly understand the ineptness of reds gm(krall) is if the reds owner (castllini) told him to sell everything not nailed down.if that is the case I believe the reds will be sold at a discount within the next 3 years if not sooner.
Reds fans can only hope
So, that was a quick window of contention for Cincy. Rebuild again?
Indecision may or may not be the underlining problem.
Wow! I just got that. Well done, sir, well done.
Have Reds management lost their minds? This is insane, first Iglesias, now rumors of Gray, Suarez, and now Castilo this is insane! They must do want fans support next season. Castellini should go ahead and sell the team now! They need to rework Votto contract. What a big waste!
Rework Votto’s contract? Yeah, THAT’S How it works … smh
Haha, and I only want to pay 50 cent for a gallon of gas, I’m gonna rework it.
They lost alot of money with Corona. No other reason for them to bail on this week division.
Doesn’t it seem funny that’s it Jon Heyman that are creating these rumors with the Reds? Days after Trevor Bauer called him out for saying the Refs couldn’t afford him and he tweeted back to Heyman.
The Reds said they couldn’t afford him.
Little Pedro Martinez, I know little pedro martinez, you know where he fits, right?
I am so sorry for Reds fans. After being making big moves last off season just to give up after this season. What a shame of ownership.
Looks Like The Reds Should Be playing
AA BALL in 2021
Wow, why not just opt out? Reds obv looking to dump salary and not win–weird, because they were all in last year.
Padres get Castillo and Gray and $5 million
Reds get Morejon, Baez, Patino, Campusano, Paddack
Pass, thanks.
Gray back with Rothschild?
Padres get Castillo
Reds get patino, hassell and paddack
No
I would rather the Padres sign Sugano or Odorizzi and keep their prospects for trade deadline deals. The Padres have enough payroll fire power to sign Sugano, Rosenthal and upgrade the bench. By the trade deadline the 25 man roster holes will become obvious and the Padres can then take on rentals for prospects for the WS run.
Can’t argue with that. I also think it’s the more likely rout.
Rothschild was never the problem for Gray. NY was and Gray said so in several interviews. Gray pitched well on the road with the Yankees and Rothschild was still the Pitching Coach on the road.
Eh I think Gray is just taking the high road. Gray’s pitch mix immediately changed when he came to NY, he drastically cut down on his FB usage, whether it was more FO driven or Rothschild idk but this wasn’t just a can’t handle the big stage type thing.
Patino is untouchable. Maybe Weathers, Hassell, and a lottery ticket like Lawson.
Weathers, Hassell and Lawson to get Castillo? Sarcasm?
I threw this trade into BTV with the Rangers just for S&G’s and this is what it spit out:
Rangers get: Castillo
Reds get: Huff, Jung, Gallo, Taveras, Leclerc, Winn, and Acosta
No thks.
And that is why BTV is not accurate lol
BTV has Snell available for Paddack, straight up. I like The Sheriff and all but this seems ridiculous!
Paddack has been better than Snell the past 2 seasons. He has more team control and he is cheaper.
fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&…
I know! Just seems crazy though! Who would you rather have starting a Game 7? I’m personally leaning towards Snell, but I hope Paddack is the true answer!
Paddack.
If you believe that, not sure what to say
Paddack doesn’t crack most playoff rotations. Including the Padres…
Paddock is not in the same class as Snell. It’s laughable to think otherwise.
The problem is the recency effect. Paddack was awful last year. He had two good games, and then had a 5.44 in his final 10 games, and was mostly ignore in the playoffs.
That doesn’t mean anything is wrong, but it does diminish his value.
The Reds are become the Florida Marlins on steroids; sell BEFORE you win anything.
Darkhorse? The Rays are in need (as DD once said, the fact that you need Wacha to “eat innings” is a negative, not a positive) and have lots of prospects (no, not named Wander). The contract/control is borderline exquisite. They could be enticed.
Not every starter is a one or two, every team has a guy who eats innings. It’s called a five. DD said this about the Rays signing specifically? We’ll see how Wacha does…he very well could approach what he used to be. If a 4.00 era and 200 innings? I’d take it. Don’t know many teams who would not be happy w that from a four or five.
Yeah people act every team has 1-5 amazing starters and couldn’t use that production.
big question on wacha is can his shoulder hold up when healthy he was a solid #2 or #3 guy. every year in stl i’d watch he be great in april to mid june then fall off the cliff bouncing back and forth from the dl. maybe if he is slotted in the backend he could hold up better not pitching as often
As others have mentioned, that statement makes no sense. What you need in an SP depends entirely on what your current rotation looks like. If you have 2 #2s and 2#3s, you need a #1. If you have 2 #1s and 2 #2s, you need someone to make 30 starts. If you have a team that scores 4.25 rpg, you need a better SP, and if you score 6 rpg, you can get by with a worse pitcher.
So, for all of those above, no, he didn’t say that about the Rays specifically. Nor about Wacha.
For the rest, if you don’t think “innings eater” isn’t a bizarre repulsive, idiotic and nonsensical notion, I don’t know what to tell ya.
“Ya, he’s got a 6.00 ERA; but he pitches a lot of innings!”….Probably why you have a losing record.
Nothing against Wacha; but complimenting him by calling him an “innings eater” is really, really, nuts.
And let’s give DD some credit. He MIGHT, just MIGHT, know more about this stuff. ,
‘Innings eater’ doesn’t really have a specific term. But in the sense that ‘I need a reliable #5 that can throw 160 innings with a 4.50 ERA’ then it can apply to a number of teams.
As a RS fan, I’d like someone like that.
No pitcher gets 200 IP with a 6 ERA. An innings eater is that guy that gets 30 starts, 160-180 innings with a 4.00-4.50 ERA. That is valuable.
If Reds need to cut payroll this bad
They need to file for bankruptcy and move to Texas
Or have MLB take over franchise like they did on Montreal
You act like the Reds are the first and only team to cut payroll. They just need to give it a name like Oakland did. with Moneyball.
Hmmmmm something like “REDucermetrics”
You act like the Reds are the first and only team to cut payroll. They just need to give it a name like Oakland did. with Moneyball. to get fans of their backs.
Hmmmmm something like “REDucermetrics”
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Rays deal for Carrasco. That’s where he lives and he’s been a damn good SP. Controlled for another 3 yrs at a team friendly price.
This was the one that got away from the Giants. The Giants need a #1 guy in the rotation badly. Would the Reds sell Castillo to the Giants, or trade him with a bad contract, possibly?
This is about replacing Downs and Gray in their system. And not just them, but overall for all the talent they’ve dealt in the last few years. Unless you take votto, no, a bad contract won’t make him cheap to acquire
Even that may not move the needle much. This is one of their few valuable assets left
Go make the move philly , DD just got there and the phillies need another arm behind wheeler & nola.
Who’s the offer?
Gotta be Bohm. Abel, Eflin and Stott.
So your saying make 2 holes and kill your whole future for Castlio?
Ill trade Stott , Howard & another prospect and throw in Eflin.Abel & Bohm is off the table
Uh, no on moving Eflin.
Two of Vinny, Medina, and EDLS.
Exactly I thought VV and another *weak* prospect such as a Moaniack or like you said Medina.
Put down the bottle Marty.
Tough times in flyover country.
What a disgrace to the fans by having the org flip flop going for it and rebuilding every other year
Yhe Castellanos contract just before the episemic hurt.
Phillies here’s your guy give them VV, Spencer Howard and Micky Moaniack, and Bryson Stott make it a done deal please get it done. on a side note RIP Reds fan trying to trade away everything next week, we will hear about Mouse and Nick Castionlols. (I’m not spelling his last name)
That’s a lot to give up for a team that may not even make the playoffs. Too much I think.
In my eyes, we are 1 good starter and a few bullpen pieces from greatness we could literally have the best rotation in baseball if Castilo Nola Eflin and Wheeler are in it plus if we add Gregorious or Simmons and JBJ we are good to go here comes the postseason Phillies
Not to mention the massive void at catcher.
Not a void I like Knapp and Marchan who in VERY VERY limited at-bats hit 500with a 550 OBP which is just outstanding for someone whos defensive first. Yes, I think, Knapp is very underrated.
All I’m saying is that y’all have dropped the best catcher in the game for a player who had a good 33 game stretch last season and a guy who has 3 MLB games under his belt. Prepare for disappointment…
Yeah, I’m not expecting Marchan to even hit 300 but if he and Knapp hit like 260 combined and with the 3rd best offense in the NL last season (which yes would get a little worse in theory unless Bohm turns into Kris Bryant or something) I think we will be ok at catcher. I’m also anti-Jt Realmuto he’s a ticking time bomb he had 2 baddish injuries at the end of seasons in a row he falls apart soon.
If all philly does is sign Jt , make some trades for pitching and fix the bullpen , I will take it.
I feel like Howard may develop into a quality starter. I’m not saying he’s untouchable though, but after Sanchez Phils may be hesitant. I’m not saying this trade is unfair because it isn’t. I just don’t know if the Phils are in the right place.
Ok, Let’s Pretend we don’t make that trade we still have a *pretty good* rotation and an offense that needs help and bullpen if we don’t make some big moves we are about to sit in another rebuild.
Sadly I think the rebuild is here. There’s still time, but it sounds like 2021 will at least be a sort of retooling year. We’ll see more subtractions than additions. I hope I’m wrong.
im not sure that’s even enough to be honest. like that deal if it is though.
Padres should cash in some of those prospects to get castillo and gray.
I disagree because of where their best prospects are in development. Gore, Patino, Campusano, Weathers are all on the cusp of the majors and ready to contribute. Former top prospects who have graduated like Morejon/Baez are ready to contribute too.
Castillo is going to be really expensive in terms of prospect capital. I don’t think its a Clevinger situation where they can send a bunch of guys ranked like 5-25 in their system. In order to get Castillo they’re going to have to send MLB ready top pitching prospects so they might as well just see what those guys can do.
Maybe Indians for Lindor (w/ some other prospects going to Cleveland)
The good thing about this trade suggestion is that it shows your baseball knowledge has nowhere to go but up.
It sucks bad to be a Cincinnati sports fan … good grief. It’s like the rebuild that never ends. David Bell should be traded … all that talent last year and that’s all he could muster … he gets kicked out of 10 games a year
Signing Castellano last offseason before rebuilding the next offseason seems like a special kind of dumb in Cincinnati. Not getting their plan, especially in such a brutal, winnable division.
Cincinnati looking to tear that team down. I liked their roster with the addition of Moose and Castillanos
Lynch, Kowar, Pratto, Melendez, and a lotto for Castillo and Winker. One can dream, right?
i wouldnt trade Lynch and Kowar for him when youve got a good shot that at least one of those two ends up just as good as him anyway.
Castillo to SD for CJ Abrams straight up
No. Please. Don’t trade Abrams.
The Padres almost obtained Luis Castillo for Colin Rea.
Try again…LOL
Perry better better be on the phone….Castillo and or Gray would be a good move for the Halos. Get it done!
Angels are desperate for pitching. We have pitching. Make it happen.
huh?
I feel bad for Reds fans. They waited a long time to be good, and it only last one season (and a shortened one at that).
So to sum up the offseason so far, the Blue Jays want to sign everybody and the Reds want to trade everybody.
No no no noooooo. The Jays are interested in everyone. And The Reds have no interest in their roster.
Tony Gonsolin or Josiah Grey, your choice.
LOL both wouldn’t get it done…
This sounds more like “we’ll listen to trade offers on anybody, cause you never know if someone will make a crazy offer” than “we’re actively shopping Castillo and will take the best offer.” The Raisel Iglesias trade does indicate some effort to cut payroll, but I’ll believe the Castillo/Suarez/Gray trades when I see them.
I’d expect a king’s ransom for them to move Castillo, and if they do trade him, it will probably be a full on rebuild with Suarez and Gray also headed out the door.
But for now, my guess is this is just noise and not a signal of anything.
Moustakas and Castillo to the jays for Groshans and Moreno
It’ll take more than that. Cincy will also want a young arm.
The NL Central might look like the NFC East in 2021 with none of these baseball teams willing to improve this offseason. The Reds have already traded pieces and are looking to move even more. The Cubs may do likewise after already non-tendering LF Kyle Schwarber, leaving them with only two OF’s on their current 40-man roster. The Brewers also seem to be in seller mode dangling names like Josh Hader and Lorenzo Cain while the Cardinals are crying poor like the rest of the division and doing jack thus far. Then there are the Pirates, arguably the worst team in all of MLB.
how about adell and others for castillo and gray?
guys what do you think the angels would need to give up?
then sign bauer…..all reds pitchers…lol
what do you think the angels would need to give up?
—————————————————
The bong?
Trading Castillo would be a clear sign they’re heading into a rebuild. They’d want multiple top prospects. Any team would improve with Castillo, but the Padres might be best positioned. Deep farm, need a starter, contending now.
For Snell on Rays. Padres anybody not named Tatis.
Just say no to Snell. Gray, yes. Castillo, yes. But not at the cost of Gore, Patino, Abrams, or Campusano.
Is CIN trying to rebuild?
Only if you believe the writers. A lot of them simply make stuff up.
he looks like Patrick Mahomes
Castillo instead of Bauer to the Mets.
Mets will have to give up a lot for Castillo and just money for Bauer.
Lux Gonsolin Beaty?
Only if you believe the writers. A lot of them simply make stuff up.
Torres is what Cincy needs to fill their SS needs.
If your not at least checking in with Cincy right now, your not doing your job as a GM –
Man, guys on this arc rarely ever become avail. If it dont hurt your home team like hell then dont even bother typing out your proposals
Jasson Dominguez for Castillo.
That is tough but as a Yankee fan you take that gamble.
The Yankees are not trading Torres or Dominguez unless it’s for DeGrom or Beiber. Castillo for Sanchez, Andujar, Florial, Ford, Wade, King, Cessa.
That is one hot mess of a package to offer.
If YOU were a Reds fan, would you like that offer?
Be honest with yourself.
LOL! The 7 players you mentioned combined for a negative bWAR.
The RS would simply counter with Chavis, Arroyo and 3-4 of their negative WAR pitchers.
As a Yankee fan I’ll say no way on that deal! I’ll hold onto the biggest prospect we have had since Derek Jeter. Pitchers are way to injury prone.
Just to get it right, Joba and Hughes were ranked much higher than Dominguez.
Probably so but Dominguez is only 17.
Wonder how Hughes and Chamberlain were rated at that age?
That cuts both ways. Joba and Hughes had the minor league production to back up their ranking. Dominguez has -0- innings. I’d much rather have a #3/4 at age 21, with some AA experience, than a #30-40 with no experience.
It doesn’t mean he is not talented, but he is essentially at the same stage as everyone else signed that year.
Dominquez is rated the Yankees #1 prospect and is #38 according to Baseball America….the highest rated Yankee prospect…..he’s 17, hits switch, 5″10 190 lbs and at this point mashes the ball…..of course lots can happen on his way up the minors chain…
Joe Brady….According to who….you? For example, Joba was drafted in 2006 and in 2007 was ranked by Baseball America as the 4th best Yankee prospect and 75th in the majors….should I go on?
Stick to the Red Sox.
Go to B.R., click on the minor league tab, and you will see that pre=2008, BA ranked Joba #3, and that BP ranked Joba #4. Should I go on?
And I am from The Bronx and I see every NYY article. Seriously, there isn’t anything to debate here. Joba’s rankings are either what they said they were, or they weren’t.
Let’s get Joey Votto to waive his no trade and since he has 95 mill left on his deal I have a great trade proposal.
Reds need to shed a ton of money.
Reds send Votto and Castillo to the Yanks for Hicks, Voit, German, and Albert Abreu one of there top pitching prospects.
Yanks take on 50 plus million and get a left handed bat in Votto in the lineup plus Castillo who cements the rotation.
Reds get Voit who led the AL in HR, RBI, and slugging plus Hicks a top 10 cf plus two young pitchers to replace Castillo.
Votto has 82 million left as the 2024 option can be bought out for 7 million.
Pass on him. He loves Cincy and is 37 years old
As a RS fan, I hope they make that trade. Votto & Castillo combined make ~ $35-40M per year, depending on how well Castillo makes out in arb.
Since Votto is relatively worthless, why would the NYY simply sign Bauer for $25M+, keep the superior Voit at 1st, along with keeping a pretty decent Hicks?
Not bad.
You negate half their savings with Hicks. There’s no way they move votto unless you take everything with no big money coming back
So no, this doesn’t work with hicks. Idk why Yankee fans keep suggesting it. It’s dumb
They aren’t looking for expensive major leaguers in that scenario. They are trying to start over with a new core in 2-4 years
Marlins should get him back. Undo the voodoo.
Guys I was joking lol. I thought it was obvious! I would never think that’s a fair trade. Ik value. Ik that Nimmo is better than Harold Ramirez! Lol have a good day guys!
How much do the Reds have to chip in to move Moustakas? He didn’t have a great 2020, but was still somewhat productive.
He’s set to make 52m (including buyout) over the next three years — just pains me to see that Cinci has apparently made Suarez available.
As a Jays fan, I would look at a package for him that would be Lourdes Gurriel Jr, Alek Manoah, and and Gabriel Moreno for Castillo. Thoughts?
Jays should not be dealing Gurriel for anyone. Not Castillo, not Lindor. His contract is too good.
Jays should look at adding a contract on-top, like a Moustakas, to play 3B. Gives Cincy salary relief. They’ll want an arm, a catcher and position player. Manoak/SWR, Kirk/Moreno/Jansen, Groshans.
Gurriel’s value isn’t that far off Castillo’s that you should have to add two top-10 prospects from one of the strongest farm systems in the league. Gurriel and one top prospect is the most the Jays should consider giving up, and even then that should only be considered if they’re signing Springer to make Gurriel more expendable in the outfield.
And you still need a 3B and another SP.
Stormie you do not get it. Jays should not be dumping assets when they have plenty of money to spend on offseason free agents. Giving up Gurriel when he might be more productive than a more expensive Springer makes zero sense if that also means giving up more prospects on-top of Lourdes.
Sign Bauer. Keep Gurriel. Then re-assess. Forget Springer. Martin is the next CF.
I don’t disagree that the Jays should spend money in FA first and foremost to strengthen their team, rather than trading assets, but signing players can also create surpluses that makes some players more expendable in trade.
Gurriel is not a CF, so comparing him to Springer on any level isn’t really valid and you’re ignoring the fact that Castillo would also be a Jay in that scenario, so it’s obviously not just about Gurriel vs Springer.
As for Bauer, it looks like Springer will be quite a bit cheaper even though historically he’s been significantly more valuable. Bauer is a year younger and is obviously trending up because of his great year, but it’s also a small sample year and Springer wasn’t exactly chopped liver himself last year. And as good as Bauer was last year, Castillo actually had a better FIP (ditto in 2019).
First of all Bauer only helps you once a week, Springer will help you every game. If you dont count last year Bauer is a above 4.0 career ERA, He is in his 9th year only a few good years left, thats IF he continues to pitch well
The Jays have Ryu and a bunch of question marks. They have 3 OF. Area of concern is pitching. So let’s stop the garbage rhetoric of “Bauer only helps you once a week.” Why not push for pitchers to receive paycuts with that idea.
Newsflash James: Springer gets 4 at bats, maybe 5 per game. Bauer controls 100 pitches per week. We can play your game any which way. Signing Springer with Martin on the way and 3 OFs and almost no pitching is nonsense. Please read the room.
Stormie: It only took you two comments to figure out the free agent part. All you do on this site is talk about giving up prospects for players. This is progress.
Yes it’s about Gurriel v Springer, AND your best prospects leaving for Castillo. Why not keep the prospects, sign Bauer? What, the FIP bothers you so much that you want to trade prospects? Nonsensical thinking.
Gurriel is younger. He is improving defensively and offensively. And the Jays need pitching. The haul for Castillo will be massive. They are better off signing Bauer instead. Jays can stomach Grichuk in CF for one more year.
How about a trade with Padres
Padres get, Castillo, Gray
Reds get, Mejia,Patino, Weathers, Mercano
Take out gray and you’re almost there
Do not trade Castillo!
I just don’t get the Red’s. They made big moves last year just to throw it away. If they would keep these players, sign a few other low cost veterans, develop their prospects they would not be that far off competing in the NL central division
Ivan – I think that is a trade that both teams would be interested in. I’m not sure the Reds would be interested in Mejia with Barnhardt and Stephenson already splitting time behind the plate, but this trade may set up a trade of a catcher.
Castillo to the Mets for Ahmed Rosario and Matz
@jvent you have to be joking.
I don’t see why something similar or a little more can’t get it done. all these trades are salary dumps, look what they got back for iglesias they will get something controllable in return but nothing that will make the farm take a step
Castillo is more valuable than Iglesias. He’s an affordable, controllable arm. Very rare for someone like him to go on the trade market. Matz and Rosario (a dreadful starter and a bench piece) is not going to do it. Please Mets fans. You’re better than this. I know you are.
Pretty silly. Trading for Castillo alone would involve giving up prospects that hurt the interested club to part with, not your easily expendable pieces. Now if you take on most/all of a big contract Reds want to dump along with Castillo, then you can avoid dealing key prospect capital.
Who is going to pitch for the Reds?
I’ve got a radar gun in the car… you loose yet?
I threw 78 as a 12 year old. At my age now, the only thing I might throw is a hip.
No no no noooooo. The Jays are interested in everyone not on their roster And The Reds have no interest in their own roster.
Inputs better than article
Joe brady
Rsox
Ma4170
Stormie
Good posts
Just because you agree with it does not make the input better. If you are that sensitive you should find another place to complain.
Your’s is an odd reply. I compliment posts pretty regularly. There is nothing wrong when acknowledging someone’s contributions.
Nothing odd about the reply. Softball had an opinion and agreed with certain opinions (not yours). My “odd” reply is on the money, regardless of the compliment.
Red’s are cash strapped and it shows. Give them credit for trying to win last year. They did everything they could. They lost a boat load of cash last season and cannot sustain another 100 million loss of revenue. Erroring on the side of caution this year and shedding payroll. It is what it is.. Get use to prospects and Votto for the next 4-5 years.
But didn’t EVERY team lose a boatload of money?
The Reds have such a great history, it’s sad to see an organization like this drop so far off the post season radar. Just when the farm seemed to be producing, they had one of the more promising rotations, decent closer and the middle of the order looked solid.
Their GM had better know what he’s getting in return or they’ll be out of contention 45 days into the season.
The Angels farm system is barely getting respectable so i don’t see a situation where they start trading away what few prospects they have when there are plenty of arms available in free agency that will only cost money
Bauer is going to get all the money, but two other Reds pitchers are much higher on that list of park adjusted ERA over the past 2 seasons. Gray at #11 and Castillo at #20 with Bauer #37. Gray and Castillo are also better in park adjusted FIP than Bauer.
Also interesting that Snell is not in the top 50 on that list for either park adjusted ERA or FIP.
Hoping Preller is focused on Gray or Castillo in trade, instead of Snell.
Pass on both. Don’t gut the farm for either.
Lolz. Y’all had Bauer and gave him away for another prospect then gave him away. Then gave up a ton for clevinger. If y’all’d had just kept Bauer- you might have won the WS. To proud to admit it ??
Bauer is the best of 3 and it’s not even close. He was before last season and will be for the rest of his career. His ability to pitch deeper into games and strike more people out makes it true.
bot–I’m confused…Bauer was never a Padre. What are you talking about?
Luis Castillo is better than ANY Angels pitcher and is way better than Jose Q was.
2 top 25 prospects is a must.
This guy is a BEAST.
The Reds had 15 players in Scoring Position and didn’t score in the playoffs.
This my friends was the best three…Bauer, Castillo, Gray top rotation in baseball.
I think whoever is making these deals though..Like the R. Iglaises deal will take less. It’s all about clearing the books due to Covid money loss.
10 years of losing..these are business men not fans. They already killed the Reds when they let go of Archie Bradley. It was the first of many, many, money decisions.
Also. Chris Sale was trade for two top 10 overall prospects. Fans here don’t understand trade value, at least most of them. Reading the “bag of chips” proposals for Castillo is pretty funny.
As a Padres fan-NO to a trade for either. Too much risk and no reward.
This Reds team is pulling a Florida Marlins in terms of selling off their team only without the world series rings.
I’ll put this here and in Castillo post. Using the logic the Reds want to send out a big money deal
Castillo+Suarez(and all $) to LAD for Gonsolin, K. Ruiz, Edwin Rios
Immediate 40HR replacement at 3B. Immediate 3, potential of a #2. And 21/22 year old franchise catcher, has already debuted but probably would be best with a year of AAA
I think CIN would want Lux, curious of peoples opinion if they think it could be done without him or D. May
Should say “and chat comments”
The Reds already have a top 100 prospect at catcher. They need a shortstop. A centerfield prospect would be a need if they move Senzel back to second and Moose to third.
Sale was traded for two overall top 10s. Suarez has great trade value by himself. Your propsal might be good enough for Suarez, without Castillo.
Lux plus Gray plus others…..for Castillo.
I doubt the Dodgers trade Lux and empty their farm, because that’s what it would take.
JB, I was operating thinking Suarez contract was a negative because that’s how it sounded on the recent chat. And it is if you look at it. He was a league average bat in 2020, with a glove that has been average to below average for the last few years . He makes 11M a year for the next 4. He isn’t finishing that deal at 3B. That is not a positive net trade value. Maybe pre 2020. But they’d have to pay down that contract to get value back. Based on 2020, who pays Suarez 11M for 4 years now?
You’re implying someone would pay Suarez *more* on the open market. That’s just dumb. He’d get a one year prove yourself deal
That’s where Castillo comes in
First Castillo alone does not get Lux and Gray and more. That’s ludicrous. Gray steps into the rotation tomorrow, Kopech was an A ball pitcher at the time. And they are the same at age the time of potential trade, 22. Gray is a better prospect than Kopech
You’re also implying that because Dombroski made a trade, that’s market rate. Negative buddy. DD is notorious for overpaying long term for short term gain. You don’t get to trade with Dombroski when you trade with Friedman
Absolutely Suarez has positive trade value! To say otherwise is simply ludicrous. The Reds wouldn’t have to attach him to anything to move him, let alone their most valuable trade chip Luis Castillo.
The Reds aren’t dealing with Friedman. Rather, 29 GMs are dealing with the Reds and it takes just one to set the market. Look at the posts here. Fans from many diff teams are here giving their proposals. That’s because Castillo would be one of the greatest starting pitching chips to be traded in several years. GMs would be tripping on themselves if it appears Reds are serious.
He has more value than Sale (two top tens) because he’s cheaper.. Better than Shelby Miller, who fetched Dansy Swanson #1o overall plus Ender Incariate plus #81 Aaron Blair.
No, Reds are NOT dealing with Friedman. He is dealing with them if he wants in and he better start with Lux and Gray if he doesn’t want to hear a click on the other end.
The dodgers are the one with a top 5 farm with 3 guys likely in MLB top 30, and two more top 100 (May/Gonsolin) having just graduated
You want to set the market? The best farms set the market, and the teams with the most money set the markets. Guess who’s at the top of both lists.
The reds are calling LA telling them who’s available, not the other way. The reds need to get in there before they re-sign Turner, or the cleanest connection is broken. Who’s making the first call? The team that doesn’t know you’re blowing it up… or the team who’s trying to catch the richest team before they act? Think
And if you get the first call in negotiations, you best believe they are getting one of the last calls too. “We have an offer. Now will you beat it?” That’s called setting the market
Lux is legitimately the best prospect they can hope to acquire. They aren’t getting Franco from TB. Lux was rated 2 in the game pre season. The dodgers were at the top of the list of calls the reds made as soon as they decided to potentially blow it up
With a chip like Castillo, it’s not the best farms that set the market. Lots of teams have the pieces. It’s the most desperate GMs that set the market. You can have the pieces and not want to give them up. One of the 29 will. The Reds need to call no one. I’m sure their phone is busy all day every day.
I’ve been saying this for years. The best trades are made with the most desperate GMs, and the richest GMs. Either you find the richest GMs, who haven’t been able to snare the big prize (use to be LAD), or someone one step away from being fired (Preller, Klentak Willimas).
That’s also why you don’t deal with the Indians or TB. They’ll only trade on their terms.
That’s a little much to give up if the Dodgers are taking all of the contract. Remember, it’s the Reds who want to purge payroll, They can’t have their cake and it too. The Dodgers don’t “need” to make this trade.
Trade Value is trade value, regardless of a team’s intention (purging payroll). Both Castillo and Suarez have undervalued contracts relative to player value.
The trade market for those players is determined solely by value and corresponding demand for that value. If the Dodgers want to play, they will have to be the highest bidder for those players, and that’s not going to happen without Lux to begin.
“Both Castillo and Suarez have undervalued contracts relative to player value.”
You’re just wrong to start bud. It’s not 2018 anymore
Nice interjection of some logic to the convo jbryant, it was in need –
Going after both those guys at once would at min be Lux, Gray , 1 of Ruiz or Rios , White, and probably another lottery ticket at least- They could even get back both Ruiz and Rios if they wanted to play ball a little and take back Joe Kelley as well
Im not against the original proposal but I dont think LAD would do it…..even tho they could and still be fine in the future
My Dodger dream proposal is J- Ram
Most realistic- Hader
Under the radar- Suarez
Guess it depends on what Suarez you believe in. That type of haul would be in 2019 imo
But to me The 2020 version is what sets his trade value. And the 2020 version was not anything but average being paid non-average money. He’s only getting older, likely only worse on defense, and now with a question at the bat… the bat was supposed to carry that contract. That’s not a positive trade value to me
It’s closer to being an albatross than a bargain at this point
As embarrassing as reds are….
If they flip suarez, grey and Castillo into 3 separate packages will quality headliners, decent 2nd prospects and a lotto ticket then pick 3x in top 40 of next draft. Couple that w 2 high end pitching prospects in Greene and lodolo w rest of current farm – there will be a lot of young talent there to build from !
Can Reds incompetent leadership get it done??
Indeed, the cupboard is not bare here –
A bigger Q is will the money ever begin to circulate here again when that times comes ?
I find it interesting that after throwing contracts at players who didn’t really fit their team (thinking moose and castellanos) they now seem to be trying to unload anyone with significant value. Any chance they try to tag one of those bad contracts to a deal? It would reduce the return, but get them out of a larger contract.
How about Deivi and Frazier for Castillo, Votto and about $10M?
Forrest Whitley for Castillo
Are the Reds really going to trade Gray and Castillo? Is this a covid induced fire sale? The Reds still have a good team and good rotation even with Bauer gone. They still have a window to win. Don’t understand the need for a fire sale unless Covid has the financials that messed up.
The Reds say they lost over $100m last year. They have the smallest tv contract in baseball. A large portion of their budget comes from ticket sales.
They aren’t going to sell many tickets when the crowds are allowed back if they turn themselves into a AAA team.
I think the Reds completely botched their rebuild, but the more I think about it, the more I think that maybe they should create a 3rd category of rebuilds called a re-rebuild.
That first factor is that, without Bauer, Iglesias, and Bradley, they stand a decent chance of missing the playoffs. And they are strangled on payroll over the next three years between Votto, Moose, and Castellanos.
And the return for Gray, Castillo, and Suarez should be enormous. I am thinking maybe two top-25s, one top-50, and maybe 3 top-100 guys. And they have enough of a BP that trading Lorenzen, Sims and Garrett might net you another 3 top 100-150 prospects.
While it stinks to have to face another rebuild, you should be a competitor. It’s either that or remain a .475-.500 team, and then come in last after the big-3 leave.
Should be enormous, yeah, but not sure there are teams out there willing to pay. Gray and Suarez both make real money, even if they’re both bargains. That takes them out of the range of most teams with fat farm systems, at least this off-season. Castillo is a ridiculous bargain whom most teams should be able to afford, at least in 2021. But the problem is, the Reds surely want to attach one of their underwater contracts — Moose or Castellanos — to get rid of them, which will cut hard into the return.
There is no way Castillo is traded without attaching a large salaried player with him in a package. Cindy needs to reduce payroll. Suarez or more likely Moose would be included. I could see Jays or Twins as good matches, with Twins willing to take Moose and Toronto taking either one as add-ons. Both teams can spend a little, both have tweaks to do in the infield, and both have good young talent to offer back.
Sonny Gray at $10M could be traded as a solo piece, Castillo only if packaged with someone spendy. And I doubt Cindy trades away both. They’re just listening for now.
They don’t need to attach Suarez to Castillo to trade him. All 29 other teams would take Castillo without the Reds eating any of his contract. You aren’t getting his kind of production for less $ elsewhere.
And absolutely they will trade away both. It will be hard enough as it is for that team to make the playoffs with both of them so if they trade one, they might as well trade the other.
No the reds don’t have to attach a deal to trade Castillo
You’re looking at it backwards. In order to get rid of one of their big deals, they may have to attach it to Castillo
I meant they don’t have to attach Suarez to Castillo to trade SUAREZ. I think based on context that should have been obvious. Obviously Castillo is their most valuable trade chip.
They would have to attach Castellanos or Moose to one of their positive value trade chips to move them but not Suarez. All 29 teams in baseball would take Suarez with his contract if the Reds were to put him on waivers right now.
“ They don’t need to attach Suarez to Castillo to trade him. All 29 other teams would take Castillo without the Reds eating any of his contract. ”
If you meant Suarez, you should have said all 29 teams would take Suarez without the reds eating any of his contract. You did not
So if you misspoke fine. But don’t claim something is obvious when it’s the opposite of what you said
And Suarez doesn’t get 4/45 or 5/60 with his Option based on his 2020, in this market. ZERO chance.. So stop pretending it’s a positive trade value. It’s not
Ok fine, I did misspeak. Yes, I know Castillo is the Reds’ #1 trade chip, if they do trade him. Suarez is also a fairly valuable trade chip. GM’s take more than just the last year into account. Especially with how weird the last year has been. If the Reds were to put Suarez on waivers tomorrow, he’d get claimed.
I agree he probably gets claimed. I do
But it’s one thing to just accept the deal on a claim, and another to say he is a valuable trade chip. That implies he has surplus value in his contract to support a team not only taking on the deal in full, but giving up one or more prospects, and I assume you mean at least 1 top 100 guys
After his 2020, his contract isn’t the bargain it looked like after 2018 or so. Especially when considering the covid financial aspect.
Really the reds should hold Suarez til July to trade him and hope he rebounds. Otherwise they’re left trying to explain away a 2 year K increase and a decline in stats that aligns, while his defense suggests he’s probably not finishing the contract at 3B. He’s a tough sell right now unless you attach him to a better player. That deal just isn’t helping
Maybe not a top 100 guy and certainly not more than one. But he would net the Reds something decent if they traded him now. And they ABSOLUTELY don’t have to attach him to someone with value just to get rid of him.
Castillo to the Padres for McKenzie Gore and Ryan Weathers
There’s no way the Padres can trade Gore, he’s a consensus top 5 prospect who is MLB ready. You can’t trade a prospect that good who is that close, any transaction involving him would have way too much risk.
Consensus top 5 prospects get traded all the time. Moncada, Torres, Swanson, Myers, etc.
Three of those trades led to championships within a couple of years of the trade for the teams that traded those prospects. One of those trades led to Shelby Miller…
No, Shields wasn’t on the Royals when they won the WS. That trade didn’t lead to anything. And a championship is exactly what a team that trades for Castillo or Gray is going for. That is why they would trade away a consensus top 5 prospect.
Sheilds wasn’t, but Wade Davis was.
Trading those prospects were meant to bring in what were thought to be the finishing pieces for post season success (Sale, Chapman, not really sure what Royals were thinking) are Castillo or Gray better than what the Padres could get from Gore? Maybe, i don’t know. But is either enough to put the Padres in the World Series? They thought Clevinger was that guy and now they have to wait til ’22 to find out
Maybe they are, maybe they aren’t. All depends on how desperate Preller is, how close he thinks they are and whether he thinks Castillo or Gray can get them across the finish line (and we already know he likes Castillo considering he traded for him before lol).
Half of those are actually top 5 consensus prospects on all Mlb when traded. Half
Moncada yes Meyers yes. Torres was 25th and Swanson was the first overall draft pick not the top overall prospect in all of baseball. Cmon dude. Stop adding names to make the list longer that don’t apply. I’ve already called you on Torres and you know Swanson doesn’t fit this category
I only needed to get ONE of them right to dismiss the claim that “Teams never trade leaguewide top 5 prospects in baseball.”
Ok that’s fine. You can dismiss the never claim. But you keep claiming “all the time”
You can disprove an extreme statement with one example. But you can’t prove “all the time” when there’s really only 2 recent examples
Top 25 prospects get traded fairly often, in blockbusters. That’s Torres. Swanson was rare in his own right, a #1 overall pick traded right after draft. BUT that’s not the same as top prospect in all of baseball. So you have 2 people. Do you believe that qualifies as “all the time?”
That’s my problem with your statement
Sure! Would you like fries and a drink(Abrams and Patino) with that? Same low price.
I could see the getting Gore part, but I doubt they’d throw in another Lefty starter as good as Weathers. If it were an equally rated position player, then yes, I could see that.
Well Reds fans, I hope you enjoyed last year. Really unfortunate timing for things to turn out this way, but if attaching Castillo to some of the seemingly bad contracts on the books allows both salary relief and multiple good young pieces so you can make another run in a couple of years, it’s not a terrible idea. So assuming Votto is pretty much untradable, how would you rank the other contracts in terms of wanting to get out of the commitments? Castellanos, Moustakas, Akiyama, Miley, Suarez. That’s my guess in terms of the order you’d like to see them go. As a Jays fan, I could see a bulk trade involving Castillo and Moustakas. Maybe even throw in Akiyama. Jays could send Groshans and Kirk as the two main pieces and then add some young MLB ready pitching as a start to a package.
Did Castellini get caught cheating in his wife? How did this massive money crunch come about so suddenly?
Only way this makes sense to me is trading Castillo for 2 young controllable starters, one to replace Bauer. Luis is signed through 2024 and his value will have little difference between this offseason and next as long as he performs at the same level.
The only counterpoint to this is that Castillo’s arb salary is going to continue to increase and he’ll have less control. If he continues to pitch like he’s pitching, then it will still be a bargain for a stud pitcher, but if they wait until after this year to deal him then he’s going to have just 2022 and 2023 left and he could maybe make like $8-10M and $15-18M in those seasons if everything goes well with his arb raises.
I guess my point is, trading him now is like trading a guy who could be 3Y/$33M on the high end, and trading him next year could be $2Y/$28M so he obviously has more value with the lower AAV and extra year. That being said he’s going to bring back a massive haul either way, so much so that I don’t even know if you can find a team to trade the prospects it would cost to get him right now.