Much has been written about the Rockies potentially trading stars Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story. There has been decidedly less chatter about starter Jon Gray. On the surface, though, the right-hander looks to be one of the more sensible trade candidates around the league.
That’s mostly a function of his contractual status. Gray has five years and sixty-two days of MLB service, meaning he’ll hit free agency at the end of next season. Meanwhile, contending in the NL West will be an uphill battle for the Rockies. The Dodgers are a perennial juggernaut, while the already-contending Padres made a trio of impact additions last month. The Giants also had a decent 2020 season; the Diamondbacks did not, but Arizona has largely the same roster that won 85 games and finished second in the division the year before. As Dan Szymborksi of FanGraphs examined this week, the Rockies look more likely to finish near the bottom of the division than the top.
Colorado projects as a longshot for the postseason, particularly if MLB returns to a five-team-per-league playoff structure in 2021. There’s a case to be made the Rockies should move short-term players for future value. The organization needn’t embark on a full rebuild, but a single year of production from Gray (or Story, for that matter) would probably be worth more to another team than it would to Colorado.
Admittedly, Gray is coming off a dismal season. He pitched just eight games with terrible results before being shut down with inflammation in his throwing shoulder. Gray’s velocity, strikeout and ground ball rates all dropped precipitously from past seasons. He ultimately posted an ERA just under 7.
Yet the former third overall pick looked like a capable mid-rotation starter entering 2020. Over the three prior seasons, Gray pitched to a 4.31 ERA (a deceptively solid mark in the hitters’ haven of Coors Field) across 432.2 innings. In that time, his strikeout (24.2%), walk (7.5%) and ground ball (48.8%) rates were each better than league average. As is, Gray was a productive starting pitcher. There remained some hope the former top prospect could yet emerge as a top-of-the-rotation arm. His fastball was in the mid 90’s and he flashed a pair of swing-and-miss breaking pitches.
After his disastrous 2020, Gray would be a reclamation project. But it’s easy to imagine plenty of contenders having interest in acquiring him. Eight poor starts don’t negate what Gray had achieved in the seasons before. His ending last season on the injured list is a red flag, but it’s notable the Rockies seemingly believe he can return to form this year. Otherwise, it wouldn’t have made sense for the Colorado front office to tender him an arbitration contract, projected in the not-insignificant $6MM range, as they did in November.
There has been no indication the Rockies are actually exploring trades involving Gray this offseason. On paper, though, Colorado looks a reasonable bet to subtract short-term pieces from the major league roster. Gray’s pre-2020 track record and past flashes of high-end raw stuff could entice some teams closer to contention to call the Rockies, particularly in a winter without many obvious rotation upgrades available in free agency.
Seems like another Dylan bundy caliber player. Huge hype that ultimately leads to a so-so career, angels should take a look of price is right?
I mean any pitching prospect that ends up in Colorado will have a so-so career because of how hitter friendly the park is
You think Degrom would? I doubt it. Not saying he won’t do worse. He obviously will. But I doubt he wouldn’t be one of the best.
27 years of proof that Colorado is a tough place to pitch and tougher to sustain success.
They also don’t invest in aces. I can’t think of one potential ace that pitched in Colorado and elsewhere.
Who was the Pitcher that signed there for like $160m years ago?? I think he pitched for Houston before the Rockies.
Aces won’t come to Colorado.
Hampton 8/120
Only pitcher that comes to mind that did exceptionally well in Colorado is Nomo.
In 27 years who did the Rockies pitch who has anywhere near the talent Degrom has??
Mike Hampton.
Ubaldo in 2010 was great.
Darryl Kile was considered a good #2 after a great 1997 season. Rockies signed him, he got blasted.
Mike Hampton, Ace with the Astros, in 1999 he was 22-4, 2nd in CY after Randy Johnson.
In 1999/2000 traded to Mets, then FA and signed 8/121m contract with Rockies which was largest contract in MLB at the time. He sucked 2 seasons in Coors and was traded to the Braves where he improved but not to the level he was in Houston.
I remember 5Tool. I didn’t feel the need to bring it up after you pointed it out to people who’ve conveniently forgotten.
Hampton was a better hitter with Colorado (109 OPS+) than he was a pitcher (88 ERA+).
I think the psychological damage might be worse than the actual damage-
These guys have to adjust to home/road games every other start in their brains – Hard enough being a pitcher these days
Your thinking of Mike Hampton, all down hill when he hit Colorado.
Mike Hampton?
Rockies need to have a fire sale. They aren’t competing in the NL West for a longgg time.
It seems that way but there are years where they sneak in. Its just one of those teams, one of those locations where talent can shift year to year and make them winners or losers. Coors is very unpredictable.
In order to have a fore sale you have to have guys other teams want. They should have sold Blackmon before his big contract and decline. Story and Arrenado are good – it it’s a bunch of crap after. They non-tendered their other best asset in Dahl – smh
They’ll wait till the deadline in season so he builds more value
Gray to the rays
$6mil for another starter seems like a steep price for the Rays budget especially when they already have one reclamation project in Wacha. Blue Jays, Red Sox, Mariners, Twins, Phillies could be better fits.
Not to mention how the Indians actually have a lower payroll than the Devil Rays. The Devil Rays can’t abide that!!! They have to SHED salary so they can get their spot back as lowest payroll in baseball.
Might want to check the 2021 team salary standing. Pit and Bal already had them beat.
It’s ironic that you’re telling me to look up the numbers because you must not have.
Baltimore 2021 payroll: $42.875M
Pittsburgh 2021 payroll: $41.425M
Cleveland 2021 payroll: $22.550M
spotrac.com/mlb/cleveland-indians/payroll/
URL so you don’t have to take my word for it.
Yes, exactly, they already had TB beat in 2020 and now 2021, so the Rays already weren’t the lowest payroll team.
The only irony here, is your post.
I said the Indians have the lowest payroll, not the Devil Rays. But I get your point that the Devil Rays. So I guess had I used those two teams as my example it would have been more accurate but my example is more understandable because they are better know for it.
But don’t go and just try to ignore that your original comment was absolutely incorrect and foolish by telling me to look up the numbers when you didn’t at all.
Talking about the Rays getting ‘their spot’ back was the incorrect part. Hasn’t been their spot.
Keep digging though.
Story & Gray to the Jays? Jays were thought to have had the better offer for Lindor & Carrasco, Tribe wanted more immediate returns…Rox might be good with more of a long term haul, Dodgers and Padres own that division for the foreseeable future
Oh man just stop I can only get amped up for the jays this offseason so many times right now just to feel that gut wrenching pain when they just sign a couple minor league deals and caller a day
The Rangers should go after both Story and Gray.
Why would the Rangers give up younger players to acquire 2 guys that will be FA at the end of the year in the middle of a rebuild?
Ya don’t understand why rangers would be in on either guy unless extensions would be in place prior to completing it
Rangers appear to be the 5th best team in the west. Why would they trade prospects for short term rentals?
@big Even though it’s been a grind, they almost have to do something…. it’s now or never.
Toronto is interested.
And maybe taker a longer term return on the deal is incentive for arenado to waive his no trade or opt out of his contract ASAP
Oh I don’t think Arenado is holding up any potential trade. The Rox owner doesn’t want to move him plus there’s just not many teams willing to take on that much salary.
That opt out clause is a bit frightening.
@Joel Agree, trade him and get what you can get…some prospects and salary relief has more value than an opt out and just salary relief
Good post/idea – I like it
For Tor I also like the idea of Moose +SGray or Castillo but I like your angle as well
Moose Gray probably doesnt even cost you much and you get the Lh 3b/2b/1b/DH playable options while staying away from potential overpays like Springer and Bauer (imo)- This still keeps the payroll fluid moving forward as well. Irealize Moose is underwater a bit as well but the fits good and his negative value would drive down the prospect pool –
@Cap, first off…bye far my favorite cereal as a kid. I don’t think the prospect cost is the concern, moreso that they seem to want to use lower tier assets….trade partner has to be open to a rebuild(Cubs,Rox,Pirates seem to fit, not sure if the Reds do?)
Good to know, Im not familiar with the Jays prospects all that much but I will say I think theres something for everyone right now in Cincy, especially if your willing to take on some dough-
Castillo would look so good in Tor with Ryu as a 1-2 come Oct
Agreed, I’m hoping for Suarez & Castillo. Jays have a top 10, maybe top 5 prospect pool so the pieces are there
The combination of a decent track record and a horrid 2020 put him in a Gray zone.
Ouch.
Always thought a Gray for Byron Buxton trade would have benefited both teams & players.
That seems pretty one-sided to benefit both teams.
Buxton is the best defensive CFer in baseball. That trade would be horribly lopsided.
To Boston for Benintendi. There. That was easy. Done. Next?
Interesting. Both highly regarded prospects and picks that stumbled But since the Rox gets two years of Benni, and we only get one year of Gray, it feels like the RS should get something else.
The Red Sox want young talent for Benintendi, not a reclamation project who is due to be a free agent soon. Benintendi is still far more valuable than Gray despite his also dismal 2020 season.
Good idea/wrong time arc –
Its in my belief RS are looking more at 23/24 than 21/22 these days- I know that upsets some RS fans but I think its the right call by Chaim in the end and they will be just fine come 2023
Over the three prior seasons, Gray pitched to a 4.31 ERA (a deceptively solid mark in the hitters’ haven of Coors Field)
————————————————
It’s deceptive, but not in a way the writer thinks. His road ERA was actually higher than his Coors’ ERA. I’m not sure this one of those cases where you can expect a big difference when you trade for him.
It is so difficult to accurately gage any player that has spent their career in Colorado. Pitchers and hitters alike.
You know what could explain that little discrepancy? That we’re over emphasizing the Coors field effect has on players and that most players get comfortable in their own home stadium and so most have better home numbers..even pitchers. I’m not saying Coors field isn’t the most hitter friendly ballpark but maybe we need to dial back our emphasis of it a little.
Plus look at the rest of the west that is a scary division to pitch in period.
Psychological effect might have a lot to do with it –
Hard to get a feel and in the zone when your ball moves completely different from start to start depending if your home/away
The struggles go far beyond thin air for Col pitchers
Has there ever been a pitcher that has had long term success in a Rockie’s uniform? I know there have been a few individual good years. Just keep Gray until he’s a FA. IMO, they should just load up on offense and try and outslug everyone.
So continue doing what they have always done?
They’ve just had a mediocre offense that last couple years. Other than Arenado, Story, and an aging Blackmon, who do they have? They should re-tool offensively. Spending money on pitching has never worked out for them.
They have tryed many different angles from the mound imo Steve-
They tryed the sinker baller/splitter approach (Hampton Ubaldo) they tryed the high K/gas approach, they tryed the super pen, they’ve tryed free agency, they’ve tryed youth movements
It just has to be frustrating at this point and its not a lack of effort imo thats the problem from the FO
The Rockies FO takes a lot of grief. Most is unfair. They have tried different approaches. They do believe in drafting/developing, but it hasn’t brought the results. Brought in the “super pen” when they thought it was the right time.
Believe their approach has been good. Execution/results just haven’t been there.
1 tear down & rebuild. Said they didn’t want to do it again. Always trying to field a competitive team for the fans. Try to keep their best players long term & they take grief for that too.
Other teams go the tear down approach every 5 yrs or so. Though it’s become tolerated, it’s not that pleasant to go through.
to be fair, few players have had long enough careers with the Rockies to test that. maybe if Ubaldo stuck around. perhaps Freeland, as someone who grew up pitching in that environment, breaks that cycle.
Darkside, there’s really no track record of Rockies pitchers leaving Coors & suddenly becoming stellar. It’s not that they don’t stick around.
Because their philosophy is draft/develop, there’s no room for error. They just haven’t been able to develop an ace since their inception & they’re just not going to get TOR guys without a significant overpay.
Is Gray at $6m and whatever you have to trade to get him a better route than the field of starters available on one year contracts in free agency? I think it makes more sense for them just to see what they have in him at the trade deadline.
Yankees should get him, their Gray luck is due to bounce back.
Angel fans: We need pitching!!
Sign Bauer!!!
Trade for Snell!! …Nope
Trade for Darvish!! …Nope
Trade for Carrasco!! …Nope
Trade for Hendricks!!
Trade for S. Gray!!
Trade for Musgrove!!
Trade for Marquez!!
Do Something!!!!
Angels: We have acquired J. Gray.
Angel Fans: :/
This is sadly very accurate at this point.
J Gray Imo would be super savvy for LAA
Super savvy huh? Hmm…yeah maybe if the cost is only ONE prospect ranked #12-25, AND they sign/trade a front of the rotation SP, like Bauer.
J. Gray seems like a tier 3 back of the rotation option among free agents and trade targets.
Bauer*
Bundy
Heaney
Canning
J.Gray*
Ohtani
————
Barria
Suarez
Sandoval
The longer this drags on it starts to feel like a J. Gray type may be the only or best SP they acquire.
most teams are on spending locks for now. yeah, it’s frustrating but angels, at least, are ready to spend money this offseason. let us see what happens.
Get Jon and Sonny in the same rotation. Confuse everyone purchasing jerseys.
Vida Blue would beat them both. Just trying to be civil about it.
You can mail all those jerseys to my Gettysburg address.
Ha! Well done.
I don’t general lee support civil war puns, but that was a good one.
Annual decreased velocity and now a wobbly shoulder equals no trade value at $6MM just a salary dump.
They already have two Iglesias’ why not
Hahaha! Perfect
Would not be a bad pickup for the Diamondbacks or the Orioles. Richie Martin and DJ Stewart would be a good trade.
COL would want some pitching back
This guy failed a drug test before the draft his junior year out of OU- so his drop in velocity year over year is not surprising. He still can contribute without hitting 99mph. Trade now for salary relief and low level prospects to let a club work with him in spring training. If they wait and he starts slow his $6m salary will be too much for someone to fix during the season.
Since Thor won’t be available until mid year and most likely on an innings restriction, would be a bad fit on the Mets. And even if this comes back solid, having that extra starter without having to disrupt your bullpen is ideal.
I felt early on that the Mets might go after Gray, but I don’t think they trade more prospects for rentals. In addition, there are still good SP available via FA. The only way I think the Mets deal is for a true center fielder. Maybe another catcher. With the addition of Lindor and Carrasco, they can dictate their own moves now. Our outfield is still crowded in left, but just don’t think Smith or Nimmo get moved unless they are overwhelmed. Those two and Davis are under team control and too good as hitters to give away.
Rockies are going nowhere, they need to trade anyone they can, may not win 60 games, LA and SD will crush them.
Creating a rumor.
its not like it hasnt been mentioned as a rumor in the past
Astros should kick the tires. Get Stromy to try and turn him around and get out of Coors.
I think he’s a perfect candidate for LAA. Perhaps the cost could be cheaper if they take on the risk of Oberg as well…I know Oberg carries some risk but there can be insurance policies bought on that-
Angels could kill 2 birds with 1 stone for pretty cheap. There really not in position to call the shots in the market anyway having 4 hitters wrapped up for over 110 mill, their moves will all entail some added risk the next 2 yrs but its not something that cant be overcome
At this point why aren’t Jon Gray, jake Odorizzi, Joe Musgrove, and maybe even Trevor Bauer on the Angels???? I mean how much money and or prospects could they potentially cost??
If two overrated prospects and two no-name lottery tickets can land Lindor AND Carrasco, there is no excuse for the Angels being complacent, unless rumors about Arte having money troubles and considering selling the Angels are true.
“Rumors about Arte having money trouble…” lol. Try again.
The return for Lindor and Carrasco was predicated upon in player being very good but under contract for 2021 only, and the other still working his way back from cancer and owed $25M for the next two years. The former’s return is limited by the single season and the latter’s by long-term health concerns.
Arte may have 99 troubles but money ain’t one. He’s worth a few billion in personal wealth.
Separately, the Angels have a sweet local TV deal that practically covers most annual team costs and that’s BEFORE ticket sales, parking, concessions, fan gear, etc.
Oh and he just bought the Stadium and surrounding land which is prime for more revenue generating development in the near future.
If two overrated prospects and two no-name lottery tickets can land Lindor AND Carrasco,
———————————————
You do know that neither Gimenez nor Rosario are prospects more, right? Rosario has been in the leagues 4 years.
They need a difference maker but Bauer will be an overpay imo- Odorizzi same on smaller scale so they have to get creative
If it were me Id dive head first into some good pen arms right now with my money and trade for a cheap controlled Sp like Musgrove
Your never going to be able to get to an ideal sitch on a rotation +pen with Trout Rendon Jup Pujols making over 110 mill alone so your going to have to massage the market and find values wherever you can even if the fit isnt airtight the next 2 years –
The Trienan and May contracts woulda looked great for LAA. They cant go into the year as currently constructed w that pen
They could use another RP for sure. I agree on Treinen & May. They could still go after a Rosenthal or Bradley and be in good shape.
Personally I’d like to see them pull a trade for Contreras/Hendricks, sign a free agent SP and RP. They need to get aggressive with these teams looking to cut payroll and make a deal!
Agree, still a good pond left to fish from but ya gotta start moving in soon on the Rps –
Agree on that trade, that be a real solid move for the Angels for multiple years
Has a dome ever been discussed in Colorado? Would a indoor stadium have any affect with the altitude?
id imagine it would have to be pressurized to have any real affect, and that might be expansive.
Nut job environmentalists like the Sierra Club would never go for it, especially since people couldn’t drool over views of the mountains anymore.
Every team should be in in Gray. His stats will look a lot different when half his games aren’t a mile high.
This year’s Dylan Bundy
Dude looks uncomfortable and labors at the top of his windup.I’m no Dr. but I’m a halo fan and we have given more then our share of charity to suspect pitchers under the last GM.It’s time to turn the page.We need a #1  SP to compete in the Trout window.Bandaids need to STOP!
Rockies should extend him, but cheap and incompetent management means that won’t happen.
This is a needless article. Good luck trading Arenado.
Guys Mike Hampton was not on the same level as Degrom. Not even close. Don’t use him as an example ever again please. Degrom would have a era below 3 in coors field.
Who said Hampton was on the same level as DeGrom? Voices in your head again?
Yup, by age 32, Hampton had approximately twice as many wins as DeGrom.
Either Arenaldo or Trevor Storey would be nice fits for the Cardinals.