MAY 30: Kepler has indeed been placed on the 10-day IL, with catcher Ben Rortvedt recalled from Triple-A to replace him on the active roster. Baldelli told reporters (including Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com) that Rob Refsnyder is set to get everyday run in center field with Buxton and Kepler on the shelf.
Baldelli also addressed Maeda’s setback this afternoon (via Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press). While the right-hander was initially placed on the IL due to a groin strain, he’s fully recovered from that injury. His current issue is unrelated “general arm soreness.” The timetable for his return is still uncertain, although Baldelli says Maeda could resume playing catch next week.
MAY 29: The Twins’ 6-5 victory over the Royals today may have come at a price, as Max Kepler left the game due to a left hamstring strain. Kepler came up limping while trying to beat out a grounder in the second inning, and was immediately replaced in the field for the top of the third.
Manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters (including The Athletic’s Dan Hayes) that Kepler would undergo an MRI and could potentially be heading to the injured list. At the very least, “I don’t think he’s going to be out there in the next few days,” Baldelli said.
This is the second time in under two weeks that a hamstring problem has forced Kepler out of a game, as he made an early exit back on May 16. Since that injury, Kepler has sat out four games and also been limited to DH duty in three others in an attempt to play through the issue. Now, however, Kepler looks to be joining Byron Buxton, Jake Cave, and utilityman Luis Arraez on the 10-day IL as Minnesota will be further short-handed in the outfield.
As per the wRC+ metric, Kepler has delivered exactly average (100) offensive production this season, hitting .212/.303/.424 over 152 plate appearances. Beyond the lingering hamstring injury, Kepler also missed 10 days recovering from a case of COVID-19.
Baldelli also has less-than-positive updates about two other injured Twins in Arraez and Kenta Maeda. Arraez hit the injured list (in retroactive placement fashion) on May 24 due to a right shoulder strain, and that strain now looks like a subluxation that will keep Arraez out of action for multiple weeks.
A groin strain sent Maeda to the IL on May 23, and Baldelli said that Maeda suffered a setback during a bullpen session on Friday. The right-hander was initially expected to miss between 10-14 days, but now it isn’t known when Maeda might be back in the Minnesota rotation. Maeda has a 5.27 ERA/4.07 SIERA through nine starts and 42 2/3 innings for the Twins this season.
There is no way Ozuna ever plays again with the Braves if found guilty. MLB will void the contract and he will be gone.
I hear people screaming for Gallo but that just makes me smh more. Why do the Braves need more strikeouts in the lineup?
Then again, people’s standards of what makes a player a superstar today are out of whack and low. Just look at Acuna and his superstar label.
Gallo…? Gross. Another swing-and-miss bat & career .209 AVG is not what this lineup needs. Great glove, competitor and could be a true clean-up hitter IF he makes contact, which one would assume would be tougher in a division with as much elite SPs as the East. Head up north for Haniger if looking for a replacement.
Sorry but you can’t void a guaranteed contract. They are stuck with him unless they release him.
Acuna is striking out less than 20% of the time this year and has always been able to offset his strikeouts with a high walk rate and contact rate. If ranking 5th in wOBA, OPS, 8th in wRC+, and 5th in fWAR since 2018 among all NL batters doesnt make you a superstar-level player, than what does?
This comment is a wild ride. Opiates are destroying our communities.
.212/.303/.424 is now average? Wow, that is pathetic.
You hit the nail on the head.
The league needs to crack down on pitchers using foreign substances. I’d rather them do that then something dumb like moving the mound back or making the strikezone even smaller than it already is.
Seems like common sense, right? Enforce a rule that’s already in place rather than make a whole bunch of changes.
I’m all for enforcing a crackdown in foreign substances but how do you do it consistently? Personally I think adjusting the top of the strike zone is a very practical way to counter the increased velocity and sharper breaks.
Random checks on baseballs thrown. Like take 3-10 baseballs from every appearance to get examined for foreign substances.
or they could dump those all or nothing swings.. learn to make solid contact and not try to launch everything..
One reason I’m not a fan of OPS+.
League average OPS has been hovering around .700 this season. So Kepler’s .727 seems like it should actually be a little above average, doesn’t it?
It’s park adjusted though so not if the Twins park historically favors hitters.
I understand that.
The “park adjusted” stats always remind me of all the caveats in a physics problem.
I.e,; “two ideal spheres in a vacuum…”
& the park adjustment varies year to year. I don’t think its historically based. If I’m wrong about that let me know.
I disagree with it’s specificity as well. “Exactly league average” strikes me as an extremely bold claim & sketchy math. Should be in tiers like some of the defensive metrics are. I know they are trying to “simplify” it but I feel that is pretty misleading.
I question some of the minutiae as well. For example, how can an HBP be more valuable than a BB? The argument is based on sequencing but I question the logic.
In the end, if you ran a lineup of 9 guys out there with an OPS of .727 in ’21 you’d wear a lot of pitching staffs down & would score more than enough runs to win.
Yeah, pretty much. Batters this year have a .236/.312/.393 line and 309 wOBA. League average OPS this year is .705, which is the lowest it’s been since 2014 when it was .700 on the dot.
In an effort to see how just how badly some of my Yanks have actually been performing, I looked up league average OPS numerous times in May.
The lowest I saw: .699
The highest: .708
For reference it was .758(!) in 2019.
Also.
My understanding is that “park adjustments” are not a fixed variable, but actually change year by year. Is that correct?
Merci, @mlb1225.
I’m pretty sure they do change year-by-year. But the fact that OPS has changed so dramatically over the last 3-5 years is insane. Enrique Hernandez currently has a .709 OPS and a 95 OPS+. Two years ago, he had a .715 OPS and 87 OPS+. I think it really has to do with them un-juicing the baseball, but everyone still swinging like it is juiced. Made sense to go long-ball-or-bust when it was easy to hit home runs. But flyball rate has stayed relatively the same since 2017, while line drive rate has significantly decreased from 2020 to 2021. Batters should be focused more on line drives rather than just flyballs and only flyballs.
Thanks.
They do indeed change yearly. Yankee Stadium – for example – has been the 5th to 8th highest adjustment going back to ’18.
I went ahead & muddled through myself.
Absolutely.
When the ball settles in an outfielder’s glove as opposed to going over the fence, the “fly ball revolution” loses it’s payoff.
Re-deadening the ball has had the effect of less home runs but guys still trying to hit them.
& we get 2021.
Excellent point on hitting line drives.
I did some research on my own on line drives. Since batted ball data started being collected in 2002, the lowest league wide BA on line drives has been .680, that being in 2018. The lowest league wide single season wOBA and wRC+ on line drives has been .672 and 331, both in 2019.
Even when you filter for just soft hit line drives, the lowest BA is still .629 (2012) and the lowest wOBA and wRC+ is .567 (2012) and 263 (2006). I really wonder why some teams are still going with the flyball-or-bust kind of approach. I get you can’t defend against a home run, but when the very worst contact is made on line drives, they still fall for a hit over 60% of the time.
Since 2002, the top 5 line drive leaders with at least 2000 plate appearances also have a career wRC+ of at least 100. The lowest wRC+ among batters since ’02 with 2000+ PA’s and a LD% of at least 25% is Chris Johnson with a 96 wRC+, so just slightly below league average.
I, personally, think the Pirates are on to something with this though. They don’t have very many of those big, flyball-or-bust kind of hitters in their system. Really only Oneil Cruz and Mason Martin are those kinds of hitters. But guys like Liover Peguero, Nick Gonzales, Endy Rodriguez, Hudson Head, Maikol Escotto, Canaan Smith-Njigba, Travis Swaggerty, Ke’Bryan Hayes, and Bryan Reynolds (at the major league level) are all more line drive than flyball hitters.
Great post, man.
Awfully nuanced for MLBTR.
Thanks for the research & providing something(s) to think about.
average, maybe. acceptable? no.
this is not a post about the Braves or Ozuna. it is a post about the Twins
The news about Ozuna has shaken many of us to the core and it is more important in the big picture. It’s something we will share with our children and grandchildren. “DON’T BE LIKE THIS OZUNA FELLOW!” That’s what I will share.
Share it with them in private. not here.
“Shaken many of us to the core” really? It’s terrible news but that’s more than a bit of hyperbole.
Drew Waters is off to a good start at AAA. He might be better than anything the Braves can get in a trade right now. However if they can get a young Outfielder with some upside like Anthony Santander then maybe make a trade.
As for the Twins, looks like Refsnyder might be sticking around awhile
Yes, let’s add another rookie to an inconsistent and frankly overrated lineup. That will get them to over .500 for the first time this season.
Arraez had a separated shoulder from the start.. they played him with that separated shoulder.. I saw it when he got injured.. apparently the cracked twins medical staff had to wait a week to get an MRI to give them a clue… we have seen this for years with the twins.. trying to play players because their diagnostics is carp. Take playing Sano on what they called a bone bruise ( which is by definition at least microfracturing of the bone),.. and come to find out his leg was fractured… they are incompetent and inept or the twins don’t care about their players and are trying to play them with injuries they shouldn’t.. Take Glen Perkins.. Pitched him with a tear in the shoulder labrum.. no telling how much more injury was caused by not shutting him down and getting someone that knows their business and can read an MRI … it cost Perk years likely off his career… its a shame.. millions pouring in the coffers and they try to save a few bucks by playing them thru injuries that could shorten their careers..
Sure, everyone just ignoring that as a consequence of the Kepler injury, fans get to see future HOFer Refsnyder play every day. One of the few reasons to watch MLB this year.
Besides Wil Craig’s Gold Glove defense at 1B of course.
Bruh, Refsnyder’s gonna hit .400.