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A’s Loaded Arbitration Class Will Lead To Some Tough Decisions

By Steve Adams | September 3, 2021 at 6:17pm CDT

The Athletics are squarely in the mix for the second American League Wild Card and, with six remaining games against the first-place Astros still on the schedule, are still alive in the division chase in the American League West as well. Oakland currently trails Houston by four and a half games, so with 28 games left to play, there’s time for a surge to overtake the current leaders.

Oakland’s proximity to a division title and their (at the time) status as a team in possession of the second Wild Card spot surely emboldened the team to go for it at this year’s trade deadline. The acquisition of Andrew Chafin was a solid addition to an already-sound bullpen, but it was the team’s trade for Starling Marte that really grabbed headlines. That’s in part due to Marte’s status as one of the more prominent names on the summer trade market but also due to the fact that Oakland parted with longtime top prospect Jesus Luzardo — five years of control over him to be exact — in exchange for a rental player who’ll be a free agent at season’s end.

At the time of the trade, I touched on this a bit, but it’s a concept  that bears a bit more detail. The Athletics have every reason to act aggressively on the trade deadline this summer, because barring a major uptick in the team’s typically thrifty payroll, this could be something of a last hurrah for the current Oakland core.

The A’s don’t have much on the payroll next season — just Elvis Andrus $14MM salary (of which the Rangers are paying $7.25MM) and Stephen Piscotty’s $7.25MM salary. The A’s have a $4MM club option on Jake Diekman that comes with a $750K buyout as well. Most clubs would probably pick that up given his strong season, but it’s at least feasible that given the forthcoming payroll crunch that will be laid out here shortly, the A’s could pass on it.

Those minimal contractual guarantees look nice at first glance, but the Athletics have an enormous arbitration class on the horizon — and it’s not just large in terms of volume. It’s a talented and experienced group of players featuring the majority of Oakland’s most recognizable names: Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Ramon Laureano, Frankie Montas, Lou Trivino, Chad Pinder, Tony Kemp, Deolis Guerra, Burch Smith and (depending on his final service time numbers) perhaps Adam Kolarek. Of that bunch, Manaea and Bassitt are up for their final arbitration raises — the former as a Super Two player. Chapman, Olson, Montas and Trivino are getting their second raises.

I wanted to better ascertain just how expensive a class this is going to be for the Athletics, so I reached out to MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for some help. Matt created MLBTR’s Arbitration Projection model, and I asked if he’d be able to put together some projections for the Athletics’ class based on the seasons they’ve had to date. Matt did just that, tacking on each player’s rest-of-season projections from the Steamer projection system to their actual production to date, coming up with the following projections:

  • Matt Olson: $11.8MM
  • Sean Manaea: $10.1MM
  • Matt Chapman: $9.8MM
  • Chris Bassitt: $8.9MM
  • Frankie Montas: $4.8MM
  • Lou Trivino: $3.0MM
  • Ramon Laureano: $2.8MM
  • Chad Pinder: $2.7MM
  • Tony Kemp: $1.8MM
  • Burch Smith: $1MM
  • Deolis Guerra: $900K
  • Adam Kolarek: $800K

(One caveat on the projections themselves: these raises are determined using the 2021 model and standard inflation for the 2022 season. Major League Baseball and the MLBPA agreed not to use 2021 arbitration raises as precedent-setters because of the anomalous nature of last year’s short-season data.)

In all, it’s a projected total of $58.4MM. Add that to the combined salaries of Andrus and Piscotty, and the A’s are up to $72.4MM — $76.4MM if they exercise the option on Diekman. That’s what they’d owe to just 15 players. There are some possible non-tenders in there (Smith and Kolarek, certainly), but for the most part, all of the major names should be expected to be tendered. We don’t know precisely what next year’s minimum salary will be due to the expiring collective bargaining agreement, but even filling out the roster with players earning this year’s minimum would take them up to nearly $80MM — about $6MM shy of their current payroll.

Of course, we know that you can’t simply supplement this group with pre-arbitration players, because the rest of the current roster isn’t made up of pre-arb players. The A’s currently stand to lose not only Marte but also Mark Canha, Yan Gomes, Yusmeiro Petit, Sergio Romo, Jed Lowrie, Mitch Moreland, Josh Harrison, Mike Fiers and Khris Davis to free agency. Replace that group with readily available, in-house options and you’re probably not looking at a playoff team — certainly not with the Mariners, Angels and Rangers both looking to improve their rosters this winter, making for even tougher competition within the division.

The A’s have never carried an Opening Day payroll greater than $92MM, per Cot’s Contracts — their prorated 2020 payroll may have gotten there — so an arbitration class worth more than $55MM is an immensely expensive group for ownership. Some of this crunch could be alleviated by trying to find a taker for Andrus and/or Piscotty, though moving either player might necessitate the A’s paying some of the freight (or taking a lesser contract in return). As previously mentioned, some non-tenders could get the bottom-line number down as well.

It’s always possible, too, that ownership simply bites the bullet and pays up for a franchise-record payroll. We haven’t seen that level of spending in the past, though, and this is the same A’s team that only agreed to pay its minor leaguers a $400 weekly stipend after considerable public relations backlash during last summer’s pandemic — a move that only cost them about a million dollars. The A’s also had the Marlins foot the bill for all of Marte’s remaining salary. Perhaps that was in preparation for a payroll hike this winter, but that’d be a rather charitable interpretation when history and precedent tell us this is a team that is already pushing the upper levels of its comfort from a payroll standpoint.

All of this is to say: the Athletics certainly have the look of a team that is going to have to make some tough decisions this winter. They can either take payroll to new heights, look to move Andrus and/or Piscotty (which would likely mean attaching a prospect and further depleting a thin farm), or listen to offers on some names who’ve become staples on the roster.

Parting with a starter such as Manaea or Bassitt would be difficult, but both are slated to become free agents following the 2022 season. Both Chapman and Olson have two arbitration raises left, which means both are going to be owed a raise on top of that already sizable arbitration projection following the ’22 campaign. Both are on a path toward $15MM-plus salaries in 2023 — especially if Chapman is able to maintain his recent surge at the plate and return to his pre-hip surgery levels of offensive output.

Whatever route the Athletics ultimately decide to take, the organization and its fans are in for a good bit of change this winter. That could mean changes to the payroll or changes to the composition of a core group of players who’ve been quite successful since coming together a few years back. Regardless of which path they choose, it’s understandable that the A’s opted to be aggressive at this year’s deadline; with Canha, Marte and several relievers set for free agency and a huge arbitration class that could force some financially-motivated trades, this looks like the current group’s best and perhaps final chance to make a deep playoff run together.

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MLBTR Originals Oakland Athletics Adam Kolarek Burch Smith Chad Pinder Chris Bassitt Deolis Guerra Frankie Montas Lou Trivino Mark Canha Matt Chapman Matt Olson Ramon Laureano Sean Manaea Tony Kemp

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View Comments (108)
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108 Comments

  1. DarkSide830

    4 years ago

    new season, same story

    3
    Reply
    • Sheep8

      4 years ago

      They might need to raise the prices at the soda machine.

      4
      Reply
    • Snorgator

      4 years ago

      It’s tough because it is but it isn’t. Everything about our luck in close games has said we’re underperforming but the timing will screw us. Last year in a 162 game season I fully think the A’s win the AL (semien got hot late, hendriks closing games)

      Reply
  2. Deleted_User

    4 years ago

    A’s aren’t passing on Diekman’s club option. Even if the A’s don’t want to pay him $4m he would at least figure to draw some trade interest. Better to get something for him and not have to pay him anything than to pay him $750k to go away.

    6
    Reply
    • shnoop6

      4 years ago

      We all said the same about Brad Hand last year……

      Reply
      • Deleted_User

        4 years ago

        Yes and look how bad that one looks for the Indians

        Reply
  3. leefieux

    4 years ago

    This is what is wrong with baseball. The small markets can’t keep a good team together while the big markets can….and do…and add to their teams.

    3
    Reply
    • DarkSide830

      4 years ago

      small markets can, they just don’t so they can cry poor.

      13
      Reply
      • sorrynotsorry

        4 years ago

        Have you been to the coliseum? AKA the WORST field in all of baseball? That atrocity dictates payroll currently.

        2
        Reply
        • apisani7

          4 years ago

          Yea and??? They still have people going to games. Ownership is just cheap and do t wanna spend. That’s their problem because they have the money

          Reply
        • emac22

          4 years ago

          Math is fundamental.

          Check it out.

          1
          Reply
        • eastbayray

          4 years ago

          Tampa is a lot worse… been to all ballparks and Tampa is worse than Oakland. In fact for a newer stadium in DC. I will take the coliseum over than that pop of a ballpark.

          Reply
    • kylegocougs

      4 years ago

      Can’t or won’t? It’s probably won’t

      9
      Reply
    • OaktownMook

      4 years ago

      A’s are not small market they are in the 5th largest market. Ownership has cried small market to justify the low payroll and have spent 20 years showing us renderings for stadiums.

      16
      Reply
      • Dunk Dunkington

        4 years ago

        Once upon a time the A’s had the highest payroll in baseball, no owners took over and now a small market team. Lol

        Oakland is in a massive market, owners are crying poor to get a new stadium.

        2
        Reply
        • 58edsil

          4 years ago

          And that few years of high payroll helped force the sale for the Haas family. The overall payroll was unstainable.

          Reply
      • seamaholic 2

        4 years ago

        A’s are nowhere near the 5th market. Bay area is the 14th largest metro area in the county, and all the 13 ahead of them have teams. 3 of them have 2. So they’re tied for 17th..

        Reply
        • SFGLifer

          4 years ago

          This simply isn’t true. SF Bay Area is the sixth largest sports market in the U.S. Check your source

          1
          Reply
        • GreenWood Porter

          4 years ago

          Correct. #1 is NYC, #2 is LA, #3 is Chicago, #4 is Philly, #5 is Dallas/Fort Worth, and #6 is Bay Area.

          Reply
      • SportsFan0000

        4 years ago

        Commish’s Office and the Giants have conspired to keep the A’s out of Silicon Valley/Santa Clara County.
        A’s should just pull and “Al Davis” and move to San Jose.
        Congress should revoke MLB’s “anti trust exemption”…

        Reply
    • jdgoat

      4 years ago

      I might be wrong but is the Athletics owner not one of the richest in the league?

      9
      Reply
      • zacharydmanprin

        4 years ago

        Doesn’t matter how rich he is. What fool would pay more for labor than he brings in via sales? You won’t stay in business very long if you are constantly in the red.

        4
        Reply
      • A'sfaninUK

        4 years ago

        Correct. Top 5

        1
        Reply
      • seamaholic 2

        4 years ago

        Doesn’t matter. The teams are independent businesses run as stand alones. Owners don’t subsidize them from their other wealth, ever (the ’00’s Tigers when their owner was dying is the only exception). The profits they take out of the team are not important financially and I’d guess they just plow it back into the team so they have some reserves (that’s how the teams survived 2020, when I’d wager all 30 of them lost money).. The owners’ financial play is all in the capital gains, which they realize when they sell (therefore paying less in taxes than they would if they took it out annually in profits).

        It literally doesn’t matter how rich the owner is. I know it’s a convenient hot take, but the A’s budget is set by how many people go to A’s games (not many), how much beer they sell (not much) and how big their TV contract is (very small, because no one watches it).

        4
        Reply
    • Mr. E Team

      4 years ago

      The A’s, like every other team, are owned by incredibly wealthy people. They can afford to pay everyone of their arbitration cases and still be profitable.

      2
      Reply
      • Mr. E Team

        4 years ago

        Btw, John Fisher’s net worth rose this last year.

        Reply
      • 1984wasntamanual

        4 years ago

        Do you have the numbers to back this up? Or is this just more of people being frivolous with others’ money.

        3
        Reply
      • emac22

        4 years ago

        WTF?

        A business can spend more then they make but still be profitable because it’s owned by a rich person?

        What’s wrong with you people?

        2
        Reply
    • iverbure

      4 years ago

      What’s wrong with baseball is baseball fans are buffoons. The A’s have been ultra successful considering their payroll constraints. They’ll trade some high priced bums and get back quality cheaper better players back and will continue to win.

      1
      Reply
      • DarkSide830

        4 years ago

        one playoff series win in the Melvin era…

        Reply
        • iverbure

          4 years ago

          Playoffs are a crapshoot. Must be a new fan if you don’t know that.

          Reply
    • padam

      4 years ago

      Meanwhile, the Rays went to the WS last year and seem to be headed that way again, even after losing their ace and trading their top reliever.

      1
      Reply
    • LordD99

      4 years ago

      Small market? They’re the same area as the Giants.

      Reply
      • SportsFan0000

        4 years ago

        Commish’s Office and the Giants have conspired to keep the A’s out of Silicon Valley/Santa Clara County.
        A’s should just pull and “Al Davis” and move to San Jose.
        Congress should revoke MLB’s “anti trust exemption”…

        Reply
  4. Louholtz22

    4 years ago

    Sure the A’s have had some down years but they know baseball. Not sure a new stadium in Oakland is viable. Like The Rays, both good franchises, new cities seem to be the only way to go.

    Reply
    • A'sfaninUK

      4 years ago

      Its always been viable, the Bay Area can easily support 3 MLB teams. Dont listen to the propaganda.

      1
      Reply
      • FletcherFan66

        4 years ago

        Have you seen the A’s attendance? The Bay Area only has enough fans for 1.5 teams

        7
        Reply
        • A'sfaninUK

          4 years ago

          Attendance matters as much as errors do with defense, not really at all. Its all about corporate investing, which the Bay has more than everyone.

          Brooklyn and San Jose are the only two deserving places of MLB franchises, period. Vegas is an inhospitable wasteland and Portland hates sports.

          Reply
        • theodore glass

          4 years ago

          Brooklyn and San Jose are not getting MLB Teams. You clearly don’t know anything about Vegas either. Just be silent UK.

          3
          Reply
        • rct

          4 years ago

          ‘Portland hates sports’

          The Blazers are consistently near the top of the NBA in attendance and their MLS team draws more per game than half of the teams in MLB. You have absolutely no idea what you’re talking about.

          4
          Reply
        • GreenandGold

          4 years ago

          One hour drive

          Reply
        • WtfMate

          4 years ago

          UK, your take is bad and you should feel bad

          1
          Reply
        • Juice1717

          4 years ago

          A’sfaninUK…can’t go to San jose as the giants own the area. The A’s allowed the giants in years ago and now won’t let them go to San jose

          Reply
  5. Louholtz22

    4 years ago

    I hear ya, leefieux. As a Brewer fan, no TV money is a killer. What everyone on here forgets, you have minor league expenses, scouts, etc. The big market’s control their local TV dough and won’t give it up

    Reply
  6. Gumby82

    4 years ago

    Billionaire trust fund baby owner John Fisher could pay all of these guys and then some! HE DOESN’T WANT TO BECAUSE HE DOESN’T CARE. THE BAY AREA IS NOT A SMALL MARKET!!!!

    4
    Reply
    • A'sfaninUK

      4 years ago

      I keep saying the Bay has the money and people to EASILY have 3 MLB teams, and its never not true. SF/OAK/SJ are all MLB cities despite what SF Giants propaganda says.

      1
      Reply
      • Appalachian_Outlaw

        4 years ago

        I genuinely believe that you believe that, but the bay area simply won’t support 3 teams. The A’s have a good team, and they’re 27th in attendance. The Giants have a good team, and they’re only 17th in attendance. You split that with a 3rd team, and where will everyone be?

        10
        Reply
        • seamaholic 2

          4 years ago

          Yep. Phoenix is about to lose their hockey team and possibly their baseball team despite being the 10th largest metro area in the U.S. and the fastest growing. Metro size (San Fran/Oakland is 14th) is not a good measure of an area’s ability to support teams.

          3
          Reply
        • A'sfaninUK

          4 years ago

          Has nothing to do with attendance – that simply has to do with the Coliseum being nowhere near anything (unlike SFG, which is downtown). If the A’s moved downtown like theyre trying to do, they will sell out as much as the Giants. Remember when the Giants never drew at Candlestick then sold out every game at the new park for a decade? Identical situation. You are also wrong in thinking attendance even matters these days.

          San Jose is a 2 hour drive from SF with the top 10 population and silicon valley money. The 49ers now play a 10 minute drive from the Sharks. San Jose deserves all 4 pro sports teams whether the national media likes it or not, especially a MLB team.

          2
          Reply
        • padam

          4 years ago

          Agreed, but the A’s play in a dump. Build them a new one and they will come.

          1
          Reply
        • Appalachian_Outlaw

          4 years ago

          It doesn’t matter how many people live there if they’re not invested in the product, and by that I mean baseball. The Athletics and Giants are putting good products on the field, and they’re not drawing. Attendance isn’t the lone income source for clubs, but it is a fair barometer for interest.

          Leagues spend incredible amounts of money on market studies, and there is a reason you don’t often hear SJ mentioned as a possible expansion city. If anything, the Athletics will be moved and the Giants will take over the bay area.

          1
          Reply
        • rct

          4 years ago

          ‘San Jose is a 2 hour drive from SF’

          Do you just babble incoherently? This is wildly untrue. They’re 40 miles of five-lane highway apart. Maybe in the worst conditions, you’re near two hours, but in most conditions, they’re 60-75 minutes away.

          1
          Reply
        • GreenandGold

          4 years ago

          *45 minute drive

          Reply
        • tedtheodorelogan

          4 years ago

          My office is in Campbell and if frequently have to go to SF for work. 45 minutes to get to the city, 45 minutes to find parking.

          Reply
        • 5toolMVP

          4 years ago

          And 45 minutes to read/comment on MLBTR

          Reply
    • SportsFan0000

      4 years ago

      Giants and Baseball Commish have “stabbed the A’s in the back”..

      A’s helped save the Giants from leaving for Tampa.
      Giants have rewarded former A’s ownership assistance by
      blocking the A;’s from building a stadium in San Jose/Santa Clara County.

      The Bay Area territory was shared 50/50 like the Dodgers/Angels;
      Cubs/White Sox; Mets/Yankees,
      Giants trying to monopolize most of the Bay Area.
      Oakland is not viable.
      But, the A’s in the richest tech sector in the Country are very viable
      (Santa Clara County, CA. 49ers move there and are doing quite well)..

      Reply
  7. A'sfaninUK

    4 years ago

    You just know Fisher is going to tell Beane to trade Olson, Manaea, Chapman, Bassitt and Montas and start the rebuild. MLB needs a $200M team salary floor or else these soulless billionaires are going to keep wrecking their on field product for a quick buck.

    If Fisher the greedy billionaire simply threw $70M at Semien and Hendriks, this A’s team is destroying the entire AL right now. Maddening. Literally the only 2 pieces they need.

    2
    Reply
    • Faith in the Padres

      4 years ago

      200 million floor? Hard pass.

      Floor should be 120 maybe 130 mill. Max should be double at 240 maybe 260 mill. No overage allowed.

      Teams unable to meet floor should lose draft picks based on how far apart they are from the floor. Every 10 mill they lose a higher round draft pick and ifa money.

      7
      Reply
      • iverbure

        4 years ago

        Hard pass on the salary floor. Rays should be able to field a team for 1 million bucks for the entire year. They would still probably win.

        1
        Reply
        • A'sfaninUK

          4 years ago

          Who cares? Let the players get paid for creating the money in the first place.

          Reply
        • iverbure

          4 years ago

          Lol hopefully there’s a lockout and the owners take them to the cleaners this time.

          Reply
    • 1984wasntamanual

      4 years ago

      No matter how many times you make this stupid comment, it’s still a stupid comment. A $200m floor is a great way to eliminate a bunch of teams or have the league fold.

      5
      Reply
      • A'sfaninUK

        4 years ago

        No, it never is. Your reply is always 100x dumber. It means billionaires make like 20% less than they do. You keep acting like psycho rich dudes being greedy is more important than the world actually working correctly – WHY???

        Why people like you want to protect billionaires, when we all should be draining them (because they dont pay taxes) is always beyond me. Why you like this? You gain nothing and it makes you look like a bootlicker.

        Reply
        • A'sfaninUK

          4 years ago

          I forgot the mute button exists, let me use that on some of the worst posters on here…

          Reply
        • seamaholic 2

          4 years ago

          Oh man you need to take a break dude. It isn’t worth it.

          5
          Reply
        • JoeBrady

          4 years ago

          Why people like you want to protect billionaires,
          ==================================
          Viva Che!

          That said, if you are so concerned about Mr. Olsen being able to feed his kids on a salary of only $11,800,000, feel free to send him a personal check for $1,000.

          Not only will Mr. Olsen not have to worry about going bankrupt, it will help all of us, knowing that he won’t have to work under such harsh conditions.

          4
          Reply
        • WillieMaysHayes24

          4 years ago

          He’s such an emotionally unstable person. Constantly having outbursts on here simply due to others having a different opinion.

          6
          Reply
        • FredMcGriff for the HOF

          4 years ago

          It’s not over yet is it? I just put some popcorn in the microwave!

          3
          Reply
        • 1984wasntamanual

          4 years ago

          A’sfan has to be completely ignorant of how economics work and/or ~13 years old. The garbage takes he spews just wreak of someone who has never had a job and just parrots “billionaires bad” talking points he’s heard other places. The amount of salary inflation that suddenly introducing a $200m floor would have, would be insane.

          Reply
        • 1984wasntamanual

          4 years ago

          I really hope you’re super young…or are you just brainwashed?

          Reply
        • tedtheodorelogan

          4 years ago

          Luckily people who think like him are a tiny minority, and they all have bad mustaches, jeans that are too tight, and drink terrible beer ironically.

          1
          Reply
        • Faith in the Padres

          4 years ago

          Brainwashed. A’s fan was very upset in comment sections about people not pleased with the Indians changing their team name to guardians. Also had an emotional breakdown in that comment sectiom too before it was taken down. Dude was saying some pretty racist and derogatory stuff to ppl. How he hasnt been banned yet is one of the world’s greatest mysteries.

          1
          Reply
        • iverbure

          4 years ago

          As fan uk. Make sure you use that mute button on yourself first.

          Reply
    • padam

      4 years ago

      So the owner should throw money away? $200M floor? With horrible attendance and a stadium that once saw Vida Blue pitch in?

      Right. And to offset that floor so the owner can break even based on attendance, tickets will require a credit check and 700+ score with payment terms at 36 months.

      2
      Reply
      • seamaholic 2

        4 years ago

        Right? The A’s are already one of the most pricey tickets in the sport.

        Reply
        • SportsFan0000

          4 years ago

          A’s have been “walled in” in Oakland by MLB and the Giants.

          San Jose is a much larger, richer area where the A’s could thrive.

          Reply
    • julyn82001

      4 years ago

      Agreed. There is only so much Beane and Forst can do with an incredibly tight payroll. Losing Semien and Hendricks last year was just a tremendous blow. It won’t be any different this year, unfortunately…

      Reply
  8. Ronk325

    4 years ago

    It’s going to be the same old story with the A’s until they move to Vegas

    2
    Reply
    • SportsFan0000

      4 years ago

      Vegas is not a good venue for MLB.

      If the A”s are allowed to move into Vegas,
      then Pete Rose should be immediately reinstated into baseball.

      Gambling is only OK in MLB if the suits in NYC can profit from it.

      Reply
  9. jjd002

    4 years ago

    Word of advise – don’t make Mike Fiers mad.

    Reply
  10. Faith in the Padres

    4 years ago

    A’s might trade off both Olson and Chapman much like they did Donaldson.

    Olson has 2 years left so they could opt to trade him for cost controlled assets. Possibly to the Brewers.

    Chapman. They probably keep and hope he regains form offensively.

    Reply
  11. Appalachian_Outlaw

    4 years ago

    Could they keep everyone? Yes. Should they, yes. However, I believe one of Manaea or Olson is dealt to trim the payroll and attempt to fill holes.

    Reply
    • iverbure

      4 years ago

      And that’s what they should do so they can stay competitive, you know like they’ve been doing for years.

      1
      Reply
      • donotinteruptMYkungfu

        4 years ago

        Without any hardware won…competitive rosters
        are for teams re-establishing themselves out of a dumpster fire season or four. Winning a Championship requires a full commitment to winning not I’m in it until this point.

        Reply
  12. Louholtz22

    4 years ago

    The A’s drew about 11k on Saturday July 17th vs Cleveland and Saturday August 7th vs the Rangers. That’s abysmal. SF is the draw and a lot more money in the Bay Area. Oakland isn’t filled with wealth, besides the owner…

    1
    Reply
    • seamaholic 2

      4 years ago

      It’s actually worse than that. The A’s draw an average of less than 9,000 fans per game. That’s it. The Giants are double that, which is about league average. The Dodgers quadruple it. The A’s do have one of the more expensive average ticket prices in the game, but the Dodgers are 30% higher. So LAD makes more than five times as much from ticket sales as the A’s. Now add in local TV contracts. The Dodgers one pays them about $200m a year, the A’s about $40m (and they’re far from the lowest). Those are the two biggest items on the revenue side for every team. The Dodgers total is around $450m, the A’s around $90m. Given stadium costs and minor league and front office costs and the like, generally a team is thought to be near it’s break even point if 50% of its revenues goes to player salaries. So do the math.

      The A’s payroll is so low because no one’s freakin’ interested in the team. Whether that’s the community’s fault or the team’s fault for not marketing themselves well or overpricing it, that’s another discussion.

      3
      Reply
      • rct

        4 years ago

        Nashville, Portland, or follow the Raiders to Las Vegas. Plus get a new owner who is willing to spend. As could be one of the top organizations in the sport but the fans don’t care and the owner won’t spend.

        Reply
        • 1984wasntamanual

          4 years ago

          The post above you does a pretty good job of showing why the owner doesn’t spend much more than he does. Owners are not going to be in the business of losing money on these teams.

          Reply
    • SportsFan0000

      4 years ago

      The A’s are viable in the SF Bay Area.
      The A’s should be moved to Santa Clara County and/or San Jose.

      Oakland is too small, too isolated, is on the water and far away from
      many of the fans. City of Oakland has something like 500K people or less
      and not all baseball fans. It is a long drive or train ride for most of the fans who are coming from Santa Clara County.
      That is why the 49ers moved there…

      Reply
  13. 1984wasntamanual

    4 years ago

    This wouldn’t be the worst time for them to blow it up. The Astros will probably take a step back next year, but the other teams in the division look to be better. The A’s are in a tough spot if they’re not going to raise payroll because this isn’t going to be an issue that they face just this offseason as the guys who aren’t in the final year will continue to get raises and they’ll need to fill the place of those that leave to free agency, but don’t really have great options to do so. They could try to hang around another year for a wild card, I guess.

    Reply
    • iverbure

      4 years ago

      When have they ever blown it up??? They’ll trade Olson probably and you know what the free agent market has plenty of cheap 1b/dh types and they’ll be fine. Spending doesn’t equal winning otherwise they’d be last in the division.

      Reply
      • 1984wasntamanual

        4 years ago

        If they’re only getting rid of Olson and then signing a free agent 1b, you’re trimming like what, $9-10m tops? So like Steve’s story notes, they’d still have to either increase payroll or basically fill in the gaps with league minimum players.

        I agree that spending doesn’t necessarily = success, but for the constant churn model to work, you need to continually produce young players to fill in those holes, or get super lucky with low cost FA signings. Do the A’s have those young players ready to come in and produce? If you go by MLB.com’s farm rankings, the A’s are 28th. Feel free to move them up a few spaces if you have disagreements with their rankings, the point remains, they don’t have a strong farm system to provide replacements right now.

        So you’re looking at a low payroll team with increasing costs and a weak farm system, that’s playing in a division where the top team might take a step back, but overall competition should probably increase. To me, that seems like a situation where blowing it up makes sense.

        2
        Reply
        • SportsFan0000

          4 years ago

          A’s farm system is rated lower because they fast track their prospects and promote them quickly through the system to the majors to fill yearly holes on the team.
          Read an article that stated that the A’s have at least 6-7 players who are producing at their upper levels of their farm and are ready to be promoted to the majors, again.
          A few trades will load them up with even more top prospects and major league ready players.
          Manaea(sp) Olson and a few others could be traded for multiple young major league players and/or almost ready highly rated prospects.
          Rinse, repeat every year.

          Reply
  14. yanks_aaronx3

    4 years ago

    Yankees need to make a trade for Olson this offseason. Like Rizzo but he may want 20mm/year 5 years And he is maybe 31? Olson would be a difference maker. Always liked him. GG 1st baseman could hit 40plus fingers there at The stadium

    Reply
    • yanks_aaronx3

      4 years ago

      Dingers. I mean. Lol

      Reply
      • passed_balls

        4 years ago

        Barf. No thanks

        Reply
  15. jessaumodesto

    4 years ago

    Look for the A’s to trade Olson and keep guys like Burch Smith. If you think otherwise, where have you been since
    1992?

    Reply
  16. GETBUCKETS

    4 years ago

    These “small market” teams need to pay their players.
    It HAS to be in the next MLB/MLBPA cba.
    Owners who buy teams should have to do their job to pay their employees. So their needs to be some sort of salary floor with consequences.

    At the same time though, it’s very interesting to see how teams like the A’s or Rays have so little money, but stay pretty competitive most seasons.
    Always fascinating to see how they scout, develop, and use their players.

    1
    Reply
    • 1984wasntamanual

      4 years ago

      But you think it makes sense to force them to spend more money regardless of noting their success operating as they currently do?

      Reply
    • therealryan

      4 years ago

      MLB has a salary floor. It currently sits about $15 million ($570.5k x 26) and every team has surpassed it.

      Reply
  17. neo

    4 years ago

    Are there still people who look at Lazardo as a big prize? While he is still young, he’s trending pretty hard toward a status of wasted prospect. Getting Marte was quite the steal for the A’s and every write up wants to mention the years of control being key. Who cares about control over a young pitcher who can’t get outs?

    1
    Reply
    • 1984wasntamanual

      4 years ago

      The 2021 Padres would probably take that…they Jake Arrieta.

      Reply
  18. Spare Tire Dixon

    4 years ago

    If ownership thinks the future is in Vegas (after 2024), I can see them tearing it down and stockpiling draft picks. It would make me sad to see them move Chapman, Olson, et al, but it certainly would not shock me

    Reply
    • iverbure

      4 years ago

      You can’t stock pile draft picks…

      1
      Reply
  19. Cohn Joppolella

    4 years ago

    So… who gets traded?

    Reply
  20. GreenWood Porter

    4 years ago

    A’s have gone 7-16 in their last 23 games. Their season’s over.

    Reply
  21. rememberthecoop

    4 years ago

    Not to be THAT guy, but you can’t say “both” when talking about 3 different teams – “not with the Mariners, Angels and Rangers both looking to…”

    Reply
  22. SportsFan0000

    4 years ago

    Typical BS with MLB and the Giants against the A’s., The Bay Area was and should be again a completely “shared market” A’s and Giants. MLB and the Giants stabbed the A’s in the back and sc****d then.
    The former A’s Ownership “saved the Giants for the Bay Area”, when they could have done nothing and let the Trucks loaded with Giants equipment leave for Tampa Bay years ago.
    For years, the Giants and MLB have been blocking an A’s move to San Jose and Silicon Valley.
    The Bay Area used to be a completely “shared market” like the Cubs & White Sox, like the Yankees and Mets. like the Dodgers and Angels.
    The former A;s ownership ceded Santa Clara County/Silicon Valley/San Jose to the Giants when the Giants were leaving SF and Candlestick Park for Tampa Bay with the stated intent was that the Giants would build a Stadium in Silicon Valley/Santa Clara County or San Jose.. The Giants reneged on that deal, stayed in the SF Bay Area and built their new stadium in downtown San Francisco. Since the reason for the territorial change was to keep the Giants in the SF Bay Area and allow the Giants to move to Santa Clara County and/or San Jose, then that territorial concession should have been set aside and the “shared territory” should be reinstated.
    The A’s can survive and thrive in Santa Clara County with some of the richest tech companies in the world headquartered there (endorsements, advertising, sponsorships, naming rights etc) and many of their fans commuting to Oakland to see their games.
    MLB and the Giants have blocked multiple attempts of the A’s to move to Santa Clara County/Silicon Valley. MLB and the Giants have created the situation with the A’s.

    It is a complete travesty what MLB and the Giants have done to the A’s
    especially after the A’s saved the Giants for the Bay Area and from moving to Tampa, Florida. (The moving vans were already packed when former A’s ownership jumped in, worked the phones, helped find new investors to keep the Giants in the SF Bay Areas)..

    I cannot root for the Giants because of their ownership treachery and their monopolistic practices against the A’s stabbling the A’s and its fans in the back after the A’s saved the Giants viability in the SF Bay Area.

    Reply

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