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MLB Announces 2023 All-Star Rosters

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The starters for the 2023 All-Star Game were already announced earlier this week, and today the league revealed the reserve selections and the pitching staffs for the National League and American League teams.  Fan balloting determined the game’s starters, while the reserves and pitchers were picked by a combination of the player ballot and selections from the league office.

This won’t be the final list of players involved, as some more substitutions will be announced later for players who are injured or who have opted not to participate.  Every team must have at least one player represented at the Midsummer Classic, and the starting pitchers for the game will be announced on July 10.

Of note, Shohei Ohtani will be in the game as both a DH and as a pitcher for the third consecutive season.  The Braves led all teams with eight All-Stars, while the Rangers weren’t far behind with six players chosen.  This year’s All-Star Game takes place in Seattle on July 11.

National League

American League

List Of Players On Track For 10-And-5 Rights

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In baseball parlance, players are often said to have “10-and-5 rights” or the player might be described as a “10-and-5 guy.” Any player who has 10 or more years of service time and has been with his current club for five or more consecutive years gets veto power over any trade involving them. This essentially functions the same as a no-trade clause, which players can negotiate into their contracts. But with 10-and-5 rights, the right is gained automatically once the conditions are met. There is often overlap, as players that have no-trade clauses will eventually earn 10-and-5 rights as well, which makes it a moot point in those cases.

A player’s status as a 10-and-5 player can impact trade negotiations, as players like Adam Jones and Brandon Phillips have used it blocked trades in the past. Also, a team may sometimes trade a player on the cusp of reaching 10-and-5 status, since it becomes harder to line up a deal once the player has that veto power. The Rays traded Evan Longoria to the Giants in the 2017-2018 offseason, when his service time was at nine years and 170 days, meaning he would have earned 10-and-5 rights just two days into the 2018 campaign.

Listed below are the players who currently have 10-and-5 rights, as well as those who are approaching that mark. For instances where service time is mentioned, keep in mind that an MLB season has 187 days but a player’s service time “year” flips over at 172.

Currently Have 10-and-5 Rights

Altuve has over 11 years of service time and has spent it all with the Astros. It’s a fairly moot point as his current deal, which runs through 2024, contains a full no-trade clause. The club is also more likely to give him another extension than trade him.

Blackmon has over 10 years of service time and all of it with the Rockies. He triggered a player option for 2023, after which he will be a free agent.

Cabrera will reach 20 years of service this year and has been with the Tigers since 2008. He is in the final guaranteed year of his contract, with a couple of vesting options that aren’t a factor since he needs to finish in the top 10 in MVP voting the year prior in order to trigger them. He’s been fairly open about how he’s quite likely to retire at the end of the current season.

Crawford has over 11 years of service, all of it with the Giants. He’s slated for free agency at the end of this season.

Kershaw has over 14 years of experience at this point, all of it with the Dodgers. A trade wouldn’t seem plausible anyway, as he and the club seem to have a nice relationship with each other. He’s re-signed on one-year deals in each of the past two offseasons, seemingly keeping the door open to retirement whenever he decides it’s time.

Perez has spent his entire career with the Royals, which has pushed him past the 11-year mark in terms of service time. His current deal runs through 2025 with a club option for 2026.

Sale has gone beyond the 12-year service time mark and is now in his sixth season with the Red Sox. The extension he signed with the club in March of 2019 gave him a full no-trade clause in the middle of the 2020 campaign. He’s been floated as a speculative trade candidate if the Sox fall out of contention this year, though Sale would have to approve such a deal. His current contract runs through 2024 with a club option for 2025.

Stanton has over 12 years in the big leagues now and is in his sixth campaign as a Yankee. His deal runs through 2027 with a club option for 2028.

Strasburg has beyond 12 years of service right now, all of it with the Nationals. The club’s deal with the right-hander after their 2019 World Series victory went south immediately, as he’s tossed just over 30 innings since then and doesn’t seem near any kind of return. That contract has a full no-trade clause and runs through 2026.

Trout has more than 11 years of service and all of it with the Angels. He already had full no-trade protection from his current contract, which runs through 2030. Some have speculated that the club could look to move Trout and do a full rebuild if Shohei Ohtani departs in free agency after this year. If the Angels ever did consider such a plan, Trout would have to be okay with the destination.

Votto is over 15 years of service at this point, all of it with the Reds. He’s had full no-trade protection since signing his ten-year extension in April of 2012. That deal is now in its final guaranteed year, with the club having a $20MM option for 2024 that comes with a $7MM buyout.

Wainwright has over 17 years of major league service time, all of that with the Cardinals. He re-signed with the club for 2023 and has full no-trade protection from that deal. He is planning to retire after this season.

Will Gain 10-and-5 Rights This Year

Corbin already has over 10 years of service time and is currently in his fifth season with the Nationals. His six-year deal, which runs through 2024, contains partial no-trade protection but he will have 10-and-5 rights at the end of the 2023 campaign. The Nats would probably love to move him but he’s been getting worse in each year of the deal, with his ERA climbing from 3.25 in the first season to 4.66, 5.82 and 6.31, with his 2023 mark currently at 7.71. The backloaded deal will pay him $24MM this year and $35MM next year, meaning he would need a spectacular turnaround in order to have any trade appeal at all.

Goldschmidt has over 11 years of service time but only came over to the Cardinals for the 2019 season, making this his fifth year with the club. It’s a moot point since Goldy got a full no-trade in his most recent extension, which runs through 2024.

Harper has over 10 years of service already and is in his fifth season with the Phillies. His 13-year deal comes with full no-trade protection anyway, and it’s not like the Phils have any interest in trading him. The deal goes through 2031.

Hicks has been with the Yankees since 2016 and came into this season with his service time at 9.041. That means he’s slated to have 10-and-5 rights in August, just after the trade deadline. The extension he signed with the club in 2019 did not have any no-trade protection, though Hicks would get a $1MM assignment bonus if he were traded. He’s perhaps the most notable player on this list, given that he actually seemed like a viable trade candidate in the most recent offseason, though no deal has come together as of yet. His contract pays him $10.5MM this year and then $9.5MM in the next two years with a $12.5MM club option for 2026 with a $1MM buyout. If the Yanks want to get this deal off the books, they should probably do it in the next few months. Then again, Hicks has been pretty open about his frustrations with his reduced role of late, speaking to Brendan Kuty of The Athletic about it recently. Perhaps he wouldn’t mind a change of scenery that results in more playing time.

LeMahieu has already surpassed the 10-year service time mark and is in his fifth campaign as a Yankee. His current deal, which runs through 2026, affords him full no-trade protection already.

Machado has over 10 years of service and is in his fifth campaign as a Padre. He already has full no-trade via his contract, which runs through 2033.

Pressly has been with the Astros since July of 2018, meaning he’ll reach five years with the club this summer. He also came into the year with his service time at 9.039, meaning he’ll get to 10 years in August. Pressly has emerged as one of the best relievers in baseball during his time in Houston and has twice agreed to an extension with the club, so a trade doesn’t seem especially likely. His current deal goes through 2024 with a vesting option for 2025.

Yelich is in his sixth season as a Brewer and will get to 10 years of service this season, but it’s a moot point since he has a full no-trade clause in his extension, which runs through 2028 with a mutual option for 2029.

Could Gain 10-and-5 Under Current Contract

Acuna came into this season with just under five years of service time, meaning he won’t get to the 10-year mark until early in the 2028 season. His extension runs through 2026 with two club options. He’s one of the best players in the league and is underpaid on his deal, so Atlanta won’t be looking to deal him unless they fall way out of contention between now and then.

Albies has over five years of service and will get to 10 years in 2027. His extension goes through 2025 with a pair of club options. Similar to Acuna, he’s an excellent player who is on a club-friendly deal, meaning he won’t be a trade candidate unless something horrible happens to the team’s long-term fortunes.

Arenado will cross ten years of service here in 2023 but it’s only his third season as a Cardinal, meaning he’ll have 10-and-5 status after the 2025 season. That’s mostly just a footnote though, since Arenado’s extension with the Rockies came will full no-trade protection, which he waived to become a Cardinal. He seems quite content in St. Louis and chose not to opt-out of his deal at the end of 2022, even though he could have likely got more money on the open market.

Báez came into this season with his service at 7.089, meaning he’ll get to 10 years about halfway into the 2025 season. This is just his second year as a Tiger, meaning he’ll get to 10-and-5 status after 2026, when he will have one year left on his six-year deal. That contract affords Báez limited no-trade protection, which allows him to block trades to 10 teams each year, per Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press. Báez can also opt out after this year, though that doesn’t seem to be a strong possibility based on his performance as a Tiger thus far.

Berríos comes into this season with his service time at 6.044, which puts him in line to get to 10 years late in the 2026 season. He’ll also get to five years with the Blue Jays at the end of July in that year, since he was acquired from the Twins at the deadline in 2021. His extension, which runs through 2028, affords him an opt-out after that 2026 season and gives him an eight-team no-trade list, per Gregor Chisholm of The Toronto Star.

Betts has a service count of 8.070, meaning he’ll get to 10 years in the middle parts of next year. He’s been with the Dodgers since 2020, meaning he’ll get to 10-and-5 at the end of the 2024 season. Given his excellent production on a consistent competitor like the Dodgers, he doesn’t stand out as a trade candidate anyway, unless something changes drastically. His extension runs through 2032.

Bogaerts only just joined the Padres, but his 11-year deal means he’ll be a 10-and-5 guy after 2027. That doesn’t really matter since he has a full no-trade clause on his deal anyway, making it likely he’s a Padre through 2033.

Bryant is in just his second campaign as a Rockie but will be a 10-and-5 guy after 2026. He already has a full no-trade clause in his contract, which runs through 2028.

Buxton already has a full no-trade clause on the extension he and the Twins signed in November of 2021. He has between six and seven years of service time and will pass 10 years in 2026, with his deal running through 2028.

Castillo came into this season with his service time at 5.101, putting him in line to get to 10 years a couple of months into 2027. He’ll also get to the five-year mark with the Mariners midway through that season, having been acquired in July of 2022. His contract runs through 2027 with a vesting/club option for 2028. He has full no-trade protection on that deal but only for the first three years, which starts this year. That means his ability to block a trade will be gone at the end of the 2025 season but return in late July 2027.

Cole will get to 10 years of service here in 2023 but won’t have five years as a Yankee until the end of 2024. It’s a moot point anyway since his contract, which runs through 2028, gives him full no-trade protection. He can opt out after 2024 but the team can void that by triggering a club option for 2029.

Contreras has over six years of service time and will pass the 10-year mark in 2026. Since he just signed with the Cardinals, he won’t have five years with the club until the end of 2027. That will be the last guaranteed season of the five-year deal, though there’s a club option for 2028.

Correa will get to 10 years of service in 2025 but won’t have five years as a Twin until after 2026. His 10-and-5 status is a footnote anyway, since he has a full no-trade clause already.

Cronenworth has been with the Padres since the start of 2020, meaning he came into this year with exactly three years of service time. He won’t get to 10 years until the end of the 2029 campaign but he just signed an extension with the club that runs through 2030. He has an eight-team no-trade clause on that deal.

Darvish has over 11 years of service time now but won’t have five years as a Padre until after 2025. He recently signed an extension that runs through 2028, which affords him full no-trade protection.

deGrom only just joined the Rangers on a five-year deal, though there’s a conditional option for 2028. It’s a moot point anyway since he already has a full no-trade clause in the deal.

Devers came into this season with his service clock at 5.070, meaning he’ll get to the 10-year mark midway through 2027. His extension, which runs through 2033, does not give him any no-trade rights. It seems unlikely that the Sox would try to move Devers, since he seemed to be the one superstar they were intent on keeping while trading Betts and letting Bogaerts get away. But if something changes years down the road and they start considering a Devers deal, it would get harder after his 10-and-5 rights kick in.

Despite being on the injured list and likely to miss all of 2023, this will be the fifth season as a Met for Diaz. He’ll get to 10 years of service in 2026 but has full no-trade protection on his deal, which runs through 2027 with an option for 2028. He can opt out after 2025.

Flores will get to 10 years of service here in 2023 but won’t have five years as a Giant until after 2024. That’s the last guaranteed year of his extension, but there’s a dual option for 2025. Flores will have a $3.5MM player option and, if he declines, the club will have a $8.5MM option.

Freeland came into this year with a service count of 5.144, meaning he’ll get to 10 years early in 2027. His extension is only guaranteed through 2026, though there’s a $17MM player option for 2027, which is contingent on Freeland tossing 170 innings in 2026. The Rockies rarely trade their core players even when it’s fairly logical to do so, but it’s possible this could become noteworthy as the contract winds down.

Freeman already has over 12 years of service time but is in just his second season as a Dodger. He’ll have 10-and-5 rights after 2026, when his deal will have one year and $27MM remaining on it.

Franco came into 2023 with his service time at just 1.104, meaning he won’t get to 10 years until midway through 2031. His deal goes through 2032 with a club option for 2023. Most teams wouldn’t give much thought to trading a face-of-the-franchise player like Franco, but the Rays are always frugal and already went down this road once. As mentioned up top, they dealt Longoria just as his 10-and-5 rights were about to kick in. Franco doesn’t have any no-trade protection but would get an extra $3MM if he’s ever dealt.

Gimenez has just 2.106 as a service time count, but he just signed an extension that runs through 2029 with a club option for 2030. He’ll cross the 10-year service mark during that 2030 campaign.

Harris didn’t even play a full season last year but was awarded a full year of service time anyway by winning Rookie of the Year. He signed an eight-year extension with the club that runs through 2030 with a couple of club options after that. He’ll be a 10-and-5 guy at the end of the 2031 campaign if the first of those options is triggered.

Hayes comes into 2023 with his service clock at 2.075, putting him on a path to reach 10 years during the 2030 campaign. His deal with the Pirates is only guaranteed through 2029 but there’s a club option for 2030.

Hendricks had a service time count of 8.081 at the start of this season, meaning he’ll get to 10 years midway through 2024. This is the last guaranteed year of his extension, with a $16MM club option for 2024 with a $1.5MM buyout. Hendricks has struggled in the past two seasons and hasn’t yet pitched this year after suffering a capsular tear in his throwing shoulder last year. It seems unlikely that option gets picked up unless he gets healthy and has a tremendous showing in the second half of this year.

Judge has a full no-trade clause in his mega-deal with the Yankees, and it’s hard to fathom the club wanting to deal him anyway. He will get to 10 years of service time in 2026.

Lindor started this year with a service count of 7.113, meaning he will get to 10 years of service in 2025. That will also be his fifth year as a Met. He currently has a 15-team no-trade clause as part of his extension, which runs through 2031.

Marte has been with the Diamondbacks since 2017 and will surpass the 10-year service mark in 2026, with his service clock at 6.162 coming into this year. His extension runs through 2027 with a club option for 2028.

McCullers has spent his entire career as an Astro and will cross the 10-year threshold in 2025, coming into this year with a service tally of 7.140. The extension he signed with the club in 2021 runs through 2026 and has limited no-trade protection.

McMahon has been with the Rockies for his entire career with a service tally of 5.006 coming into this year. That puts him on pace to get to 10 years of service in 2027, the final year of the extension he recently signed with the club. He could potentially earn opt-out opportunities after 2025 and 2026 based on MVP voting.

Murphy came into this year with his service time at 3.029, meaning he won’t get to 10 years until 2029. His recent extension with Atlanta goes through 2028 with a club option for 2029.

Musgrove will get to 10 years of service time in 2026, which will be his sixth as a Padre. His extension, which runs through 2027, gives him a full no-trade clause through 2026. He only has limited no-trade protection in 2027 but he’ll be a 10-and-5 guy by then.

Nimmo has been a Met for his entire career and will get to the 10-year service mark in 2026, but he has a full no-trade clause on his contract anyway.

Olson has a service tally of just 5.103 and isn’t slated to cross the 10-year mark until 2027. His extension with Atlanta runs through 2029 with a club option for 2030.

Ozuna came into this season with his service clock at 9.124, meaning he’ll be at 10 years in May. However, this is just his fourth year with Atlanta, meaning he won’t be a 10-and-5 guy until after 2024. That’s the final guaranteed year of his deal, though there is a $16MM club option for 2025. It’s highly unlikely he’s still with the club at that time, since this deal is generally considered to be underwater both due to his poor performance and off-field issues. It’s already been speculated that the club may release him before the deal is finished, making it hard to envision a trade or the option eventually being picked up.

Ramírez has spent his entire career with Cleveland and will get to 10 years of service in 2024. It’s a moot point as his extension, which runs through 2028, has a full no-trade clause.

Realmuto is currently in his fifth year with the Phillies and had a service count of 8.038 coming into the year. That puts him on pace for 10-and-5 status towards the end of next year. His deal doesn’t have any no-trade protection, but he does get a $1MM bonus every time he’s dealt. He’s under contract through 2025, which will be his age-34 season.

Rendon will get to 10 years of service here in 2023 but it’s just his fourth season as an Angel. He’ll get to 10-and-5 status after 2024 but already has full no-trade protection on his contract, which runs through 2026.

Riley came into 2023 with a service count of 3.138, which puts him on track to pass 10 years early in 2029. His deal runs through 2032 with a club option for 2033.

Rodón will get to 10 years of service in 2025 and then have five years as a Yankee after 2027, when he’ll have one year left on his six-year deal. The 10-and-5 status will be irrelevant, however, as he already has full no-trade protection.

J-Rod has just the one year of service time so far but recently signed a convoluted mega-extension that could potentially end up lasting 18 years. He has full no-trade protection as part of that, making his eventual 10-and-5 status moot.

Ruiz had just 1.064 as a service count coming into this year but recently agreed to a lengthy extension with the Nats that runs through 2030 with two club options after that. He’s currently on pace for 10-and-5 rights in 2031.

Seager will get to 10 years of service in 2025 but won’t have five years as a Ranger until the end of 2026. He has limited no-trade protection on his deal, which runs through 2031.

Semien will get to 10 years of service in 2024 but won’t have five years in Texas until after 2026. He doesn’t have any no-trade protection on his deal, which runs through 2028.

Senzatela came into this year with a service tally of 5.106, putting him on pace to get to 10 years a few months into 2027. His extension with the Rockies is only guaranteed through 2026, but there’s a $14MM club option for 2027.

Springer will get to 10 years of service early in 2024 but is in just his third season as a Blue Jay right now. His six-year deal runs through 2026 and he’ll get 10-and-5 status after 2025. He currently has an eight-team no-trade clause.

Story will get to 10 years of service after 2025 but won’t have five years with Boston until after 2026. His deal, which runs through 2027, does not have any no-trade protection. He can opt out after 2025, but the team can void that by preemptively exercising an option for 2028.

Swanson only just joined the Cubs on a seven-year deal. By the end of 2027, he’ll have five years with the club and be well beyond 10 years of service, though it’s a moot point since he already has full no-trade protection.

Tatis has between three and four years of service, putting him on track for 10-and-5 in 2029, but he already has full no-trade protection on his extension which runs through 2034.

Taylor came into this year with a service count of 7.037, putting him on pace to get to 10 years late in the 2025 season. He’s already been with the Dodgers since partway through the 2016 campaign. His contract is guaranteed through 2025 with a club option for 2026. He doesn’t currently have any no-trade protection, but he does get a $2MM assignment bonus each time he’s dealt, and a trade would also increase the value of his option.

Turner just joined the Phillies but will get to 10-and-5 status after 2027. Like many others on the list, that designation doesn’t really matter for him, since his 11-year deal already affords him full no-trade protection.

AL Notes: Gausman, Forst, Athletics, Olson, Refsnyder

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Kevin Gausman won’t start tomorrow’s game against the Mariners, as the Blue Jays righty is still recovering from a bone bruise on his right ankle.  Gausman hasn’t pitched since suffering the injury on July 2, but Jays manager Charlie Montoyo told Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi and other reporters that the team is hoping Gausman can return to the mound on Tuesday when the Blue Jays host the Phillies.

Toronto’s struggling rotation hasn’t been helped by Gausman’s absence, as the Jays’ lack of depth was already being stretched by a recent doubleheader against the Rays, and Ross Stripling’s move to the rotation to replace the injured Hyun Jin Ryu.  Since June 14, the Blue Jays have a 9-16 record, and their pitchers have a cumulative 5.49 ERA — the second-highest total of any team in baseball in that stretch.  Rotation help certainly seems like the Jays’ top priority heading into the trade deadline, but in the short term, the club is just trying to hang onto its status as a wild card team.

More from around the American League…

  • In a wide-ranging interview with The Athletic’s Melissa Lockard, A’s general manager David Forst discussed his team’s struggles, the young talent on the roster and in the farm system, the pitching development team, and many other topics.  Forst also noted how the continued uncertainty over the Athletics’ future in Oakland impacts long-term planning, saying “this is sort of almost cliché at this point, but it’s hard, without a ballpark direction and timeline, to really make a plan on what the next few years look like.  Even internally, it’s hard to know what the team will look like the next couple of years.”
  • Forst also talked some trade possibilities both in the future and in the past, noting that of all the Athletics’ moves during the winter, the deal that sent Matt Olson to the Braves “was the one that we had most discussed prior to the lockout.”  Most of the other notable deals were largely negotiated post-lockout, however, leaving the A’s with little time to both remake their roster and bring in new talent.  “That’s why I sort of say there weren’t enough days to make those deals — which again, we knew we were gonna have to do — and also find ways…to get the current team to the level that we’ve sort of become accustomed to,” Forst said.  No such time crunch exists with the upcoming trade deadline, and to that end, Forst (unsurprisingly) said “there’s no panic” about moving Frankie Montas prior to August 2.  “We didn’t trade him in Spring Training because there wasn’t a trade that made sense for us.  That will continue to be the case.  Whether it’s at the deadline or next offseason or whatever, there’s not a feeling at all that in the next 30 days we have to trade Frankie Montas.”
  • Rob Refsnyder has been an unexpected hero for the Red Sox, posting a .931 OPS over 69 plate appearances since Boston selected his contract on June 10.  Refsnyder inked a minor league deal with the Sox just prior to the lockout, and he also drew interest from the Yankees during the offseason, according to Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal (hat tip to MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch).  It would’ve been something of a reunion for Refsnyder in the Bronx, as he was a fifth-round draft pick for the Yankees back in 2012, and he was a well-regarded prospect during his time in New York’s farm system.  However, Refsnyder didn’t hit much in limited playing time in 2015-17, and a trade to the Blue Jays in 2017 kicked off a journeyman stretch for the utilityman — the Red Sox are the ninth different organization of Refsnyder’s career.

Braves Sign Matt Olson To Eight-Year Contract

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The Braves have signed newly acquired first baseman Matt Olson to an eight-year, $168MM contract that runs through the 2029 season, the team announced today. Atlanta also has a $20MM club option for a ninth season. Olson is represented by Jet Sports.

Atlanta, one of the few organizations that publicly discloses contract terms, further announced that Olson will earn $15MM this coming season and $21MM in 2023 before being paid at a $22MM annual rate in the contract’s final six seasons. Olson is also donating $1.68MM to the Atlanta Braves Foundation as part of the deal. It’s the third-largest contract ever signed by a player with between four and five years of MLB service, trailing only Joey Votto and Giancarlo Stanton.

Anthopoulos and his front office wasted little time in solidifying that Olson, along with Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ozzie Albies, is now one of the key building blocks for a team that hopes to build on last year’s World Series run. “He’s now part of this core,” president of baseball operations told reporters, adding that he and agent B.B. Abbott “worked all day and all night” on the extension as soon as the trade to acquire Olson had been finalized (video link via Bally Sports). The guaranteed portion of Olson’s contract expands even beyond that of Acuna, though the Braves hold club options on Acuna for the 2027 and 2028 seasons. Albies’ contract runs through at least 2025 and carries club options for the 2026 and 2027 seasons.

Olson had been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $12MM this coming season, and he was owed one final raise in arbitration in 2023 before he’d been set to hit the open market. He’ll forgo six free-agent seasons on the would-be deal, likely securing somewhere in the range of $138MM or so for those six free-agent seasons. The new contract surpasses that of Olson’s predecessor, Freddie Freeman, for the largest contract in the franchise’s history.

The $168MM guarantee to Olson surpasses the Braves’ reported $140MM offer to Freeman, though it’s surely critical to the Braves and to ownership at Liberty Media that Olson is 27 years old (28 later this month). Freeman is 32, and he’d be 38 by the time a six-year deal — his reported asking price — wrapped up. Olson, meanwhile, is now signed through his age-35 season. That age discrepancy, and the considerably lighter annual value on Olson’s deal, were surely driving factors in the Braves’ comfort level with putting forth a commitment of this magnitude to Olson but apparently not going to six years on Freeman.

While Olson and Freeman will now be inextricably linked for the foreseeable future, Olson made clear yesterday that he doesn’t intend to compare himself to Freeman, whom he called a “hell of a player” (Twitter link, with video, from the San Francisco Chronicle’s Matt Kawahara). “I’m just going to go out there and do what Matt Olson does,” he added.

That’s good news for Braves fans, as there’s quite little that Olson does not do well. The lefty-swinging slugger belted a career-high 39 home runs in 2021 and took home a second Gold Glove Award at first base that is unlikely to be his last. Olson was strikeout prone earlier in his career, but he slashed his strikeout rate by more than 10 percentage points last season, finishing the year at 16.8% — not substantially higher than his gaudy 13.1% walk rate. Since Opening Day 2019, Olson’s 89 home runs are tied with Nelson Cruz for the third-most in MLB, trailing only Pete Alonso (106) and Eugenio Suarez (95).

With Olson now signed, the Braves’ payroll jumps to a projected $156MM this coming season — the highest total in franchise history. They already have about $84MM on the books in 2023, and as far out as 2026 they’ll have at least $43MM set in stone (likely rising to $50MM, assuming Albies remains healthy and has his $7MM club option picked up that season).

A year ago, a changing of the guard at first base like this would’ve felt unthinkable to Braves fans — and for many, that may still be the case. The Olson extension adds even more finality to the end of the Freddie Freeman era in Atlanta, and as the Braves look toward starting a new chapter in franchise history, they’ll do so with the Atlanta-born Olson manning first base and anchoring the heart of the order alongside Acuna and Albies.

Athletics Trade Matt Olson To Braves

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The Freddie Freeman era in Atlanta appears all but over. The Braves announced Monday that they’ve acquired All-Star first baseman Matt Olson from the Athletics in exchange for a hefty package of minor league talent: center fielder Cristian Pache, catcher Shea Langeliers and right-handers Ryan Cusick and Joey Estes. While some Atlanta fans may hold out hope that the implementation of the universal designated hitter leaves open the possibility for both Olson and Freeman to coexist on the same roster, Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos implied otherwise when discussing the trade with reporters. Anthopoulos held back tears today, calling the Olson trade the hardest transaction he’s ever had to make — a clear allusion to the team’s plans for Freeman (or lack thereof).

Matt Olson | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

As is the case with Anthopoulos, the acquisition of Olson will be a bittersweet one for many Braves fans. While Olson is an elite first baseman with Atlanta roots, it’s long been difficult to fathom Freeman, the 2020 National League MVP, ultimately moving on and signing with a new team. Freeman was a homegrown star in every sense of the word, going from No. 78 overall draft pick in 2007 to a five-time All-Star, league MVP and World Series champion. He’s spent the past 12 seasons in Atlanta, thanks in large part to an eight-year, $135MM contract extension that kept him in Braves gear long beyond his arbitration years. Freeman has become synonymous with the Braves, but it now appears all but certain that this is a changing of the guard.

As far as replacements for Freeman go, it’s tough to dream up a better option than the Atlanta-born Olson, however. Set to turn 28 later this month, Olson is a two-time Gold Glover at first base who just wrapped up a career year that netted him his first All-Star nod. Over the past three years, Olson has cemented himself as one of the premier power threats in the game, swatting 89 home runs and 65 doubles while playing his home games in the cavernous Oakland Coliseum. This past season, Olson shed the “strikeout-prone” label when he cut his strikeout rate from 27.5% in 2019-20 all the way down to 16.8%. He did so while maintaining an excellent 13.1% walk rate and turning in the finest overall season of his career: .271/.371/.540 with a career-high 39 home runs.

Of course, Olson is far more than your prototypical bat-first, slugging first baseman. He’s a two-time Gold Glove winner who happens to lead all Major League first basemen with 34 Defensive Runs Saved dating back to 2017 (despite playing in just 59 games that year). Olson’s 22.8 Ultimate Zone Rating is also tops among first basemen in that span, and his 15 Outs Above Average (per Statcast) rank sixth in that same span. There’s an argument to be made that bittersweet as the change might be for Braves fans, Freeman is being replaced by the most well-rounded, prime-aged first baseman in the game.

The Braves will control Olson for at least the next two seasons, as he’s currently sitting on four-plus years of Major League service time. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a $12MM salary for Olson this coming season, and he’ll be due one more raise on that sum before qualifying as a free agent after the 2023 season. Of course, the Braves could well look to sign Olson to a long-term deal that would keep him with his hometown club far longer than those remaining two years of control. Atlanta reportedly balked at going six or more years on a potential Freeman extension, but Olson is four and a half years younger than Freeman, which could alleviate concerns about an eventual decline in the late stages of a long-term deal.

Just as it’s difficult for the Braves’ faithful to process the change, Athletics fans are surely reeling from the news as well. While periodic sell-offs of this nature have become second nature for Oakland diehards, the current core is one of the more talented and recognizable groups in recent memory. Olson was a fan favorite and beloved player at the Coliseum, but his departure begins to pave the way for what the A’s hope will be its next core group.

Pache and Langeliers are the true headliners here, though all four prospects ranked among the top 15 or so in the Braves’ farm. Pache, 23, has seen his stock dip a bit since being ranked as baseball’s No. 7 prospect (per Baseball America) in the 2020-21 offseason. That’s due both to a poor showing at the plate in the big leagues and a fairly pedestrian output in Triple-A Gwinnett. Pache received just 68 big league plate appearances in ’21 and batted .111/.152/.206, though it’s tough to glean much of anything from such a small sample. His work in Triple-A was more encouraging but not on par with his strong 2019 campaign in Double-A; in 353 trips to the plate with Gwinnett this past season, Pache batted .265/.330/.414.

Cristian Pache |Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

Offense has never been projected to be Pache’s primary selling point, however. That’s not to say he couldn’t develop into a solid big leaguer at the plate, of course, but much of his prospect allure has come from the fact that he’s a plus runner who received 80 grades for his defensive upside in the outfield. Considering the huge space he’ll now have to patrol at the Coliseum, that’s a particularly valuable skill to have. And, if Pache can turn in something close to his lifetime .280/.330./406 slash from the minor leagues, he ought to be able to solidify himself as a highly valuable big leaguer before long. Pache is still near universally regarded among the sport’s top 100 prospects.

Turning to the 24-year-old Langeliers, he’ll give the A’s another potential high-end catcher before long. Sean Murphy is the incumbent option there and had a fine season in ’21, but Langeliers was the No. 9 overall pick in 2019 and is fresh off a .256/.339/.494 showing between Double-A and a brief stop in Triple-A. Baseball America ranked Langeliers 54th among all prospects, calling him an excellent defender with a “cannon” arm and above-average power. That he reached Triple-A already in 2021, albeit only for five games, speaks to his proximity to the Majors. Langeliers also ranks as baseball’s No. 70 prospect at FanGraphs and No. 80 at The Athletic.

With Langeliers now perhaps the future behind the plate, Oakland will at least have the ability to more comfortably listen to offers on Murphy if they see fit. Murphy is controlled another four seasons and just won a Gold Glove while popping 17 home runs, but he’ll reach arbitration next year — around the time Langeliers is likely to be ready for an everyday audition at the big league level.

As for Cusick and Estes, both are well regarded in their own regard, even if they haven’t received the type of national attention that Pache and Langeliers have. Cusick was Atlanta’s first-round pick just last summer, joining the organization after posting huge strikeout totals during his sophomore and junior seasons at Wake Forest (37% overall). The 6’6″, 235-pound righty sits in the upper 90s with a heater that has touched 102 mph.

Command was an issue for Cusick in college, but in 16 1/3 innings with Low-A Augusta last season, Cusick punched out more than half of the 67 hitters he faced while issuing just four walks. It remains to be seen whether he can sustain those gains, but there’s huge potential if he can indeed refine his command. If not, a triple-digit fastball and this type of bat-missing ability will surely play up as a potential late-inning reliever. He was generally regarded among the system’s 10 best overall prospects.

As for the 20-year-old Estes, he was the Braves’ 16th-round selection in 2019 but has quickly elevated his profile. Drafted out Paraclete High School in Lancaster, Calif., Estes had a nondescript pro debut that lasted 10 innings in ’19, didn’t pitch due to the canceled 2020 minor league season and then broke out with a monster year as Cusick’s teammate in Low-A Augusta. Through 20 starts, a total of 99 innings, Estes notched a 2.91 ERA with a 32.1% strikeout rate and a 7.3% walk rate. He was an extreme fly-ball pitcher in 2021 (33.2% grounder rate), but that’s not a huge concern for the A’s, given their spacious home environs. Estes’ success came despite being nearly three years younger than the average competition he faced. While he and Cusick are both at least one, if not two full seasons away from making a big league impact, they both add some considerable upside to an Oakland system that was generally regarded among the thinnest in the sport.

“This is the cycle for the A’s,” Forst said back in early November when addressing reports of a likely payroll reduction. “We have to listen and be open to whatever comes out of this. This is our lot in Oakland until it’s not.” Those foreboding words have already manifested in the trade of two popular and productive A’s stars, and there’s little sense expecting that Oakland will put a foot on the brakes now. They’ve secured four new pitching prospects and a pair of ballyhooed close-to-the-Majors position players already (Pache, Langeliers), and things are likely just getting started.

As for the Braves, the acquisition of Olson will turn the page on perhaps the team’s most iconic player since Hall of Famer Chipper Jones. The 2020 MVP crowning for Freeman was a high note in his career, but the team’s storybook World Series run, with Freeman at the heart of the charge, will make an even more fitting end to this chapter in the team’s history. Olson will have major shoes to fill at Truist Park, but so long as he carries on at something near the .254/.348/.515 pace he’s tallied over his past 564 Major League games, the Braves will be in good hands.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported that trade and all five players involved (Twitter thread).

Yankees Pessimistic On Chances Of Signing Freddie Freeman

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The Yankees are pessimistic on free agent first baseman Freddie Freeman, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network.  The Yankees have also thus far said no to an ask of top prospect Anthony Volpe plus more for Oakland first baseman Matt Olson, Heyman explains.  As such, a reunion with free agent Anthony Rizzo is suggested to be “the most realistic” first base addition for the Yankees.

Three days ago, Heyman wrote that the Dodgers and Braves are the most likely landing spots for Freeman, who reportedly has sought a six-year deal.  The Yankees have since revamped the left side of the infield, shipping out Gio Urshela and adding Josh Donaldson and Isiah Kiner-Falefa from the Twins.  The Yanks still have Luke Voit, DJ LeMahieu, and Gleyber Torres on the roster, so further adjustments may be coming.

Volpe, ranked by Baseball America as the tenth best prospect in the game, isn’t necessarily an unreasonable request by the A’s.  Recent precedent for trading a five-WAR type player in the offseason with two years of control is rare, but the Marlins were able to land Sixto Sanchez and others when shopping J.T. Realmuto three years ago.  Other clubs known to be in the mix for Olson include the Guardians, Rangers, Padres, and naturally the Braves if they lose Freeman.

Rizzo posted a 113 wRC+ for the Yankees in 200 plate appearances after coming over from the Cubs at the trade deadline.

Guardians Among Teams Exploring Matt Olson Trade

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Matt Olson is among the highest-profile trade targets on the market at the moment, and although the teams most often linked to him have been the Yankees, Rangers and Braves (presumably as a fallback if Freddie Freeman signs elsewhere), Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets that the Guardians are also “in the mix” for the Athletics’ All-Star first baseman. Cleveland is currently exploring upgrades of varying quality at first base, in the outfield and in the bullpen, Rosenthal adds.

Armed with one of the deepest farm systems in the sport, the Guardians could easily put together a compelling package to pry Olson from Oakland. Cleveland is particularly deep in terms of controllable middle infield prospects, with shortstops Brayan Rocchio, Jose Tena, Tyler Freeman and Gabriel Arias all climbing the ranks behind presumptive big league double-play tandem Amed Rosario and Andres Gimenez.

It’s possible that Gimenez himself could be of interest to the A’s or another trade partner; the 23-year-old switch-hitter struggled in 210 plate appearances with Cleveland last season but had a big showing in Triple-A and isn’t far removed from being regarded as one of the sport’s most promising prospects himself. He’s also controllable via arbitration through at least the 2026 season. Of course, Cleveland is deep in prospects at other positions as well. Outfielders George Valera and Steven Kwan, righty Daniel Espino and third baseman/outfielder Nolan Jones have all garnered attention on prospect rankings.

As for the fit regarding Olson, it’s a pretty straightforward one. No team in baseball got less production from its first basemen than Cleveland did in ’21.  Bobby Bradley, Yu Chang, Jake Bauers, Owen Miller, Josh Naylor and even Harold Ramirez (two plate appearances) and Roberto Perez (one plate appearance) all saw time in the lineup at first base but combined for a disastrous .207/.275/.389 batting line. Olson, meanwhile, hit a career-best .271/.371/.540 while blasting 39 home runs and playing his typical brand of Gold Glove caliber defense.

The question for the Guardians is whether they’d be able to retain Olson beyond the 2023 season, when he’s currently scheduled to become a free agent. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Olson to earn $12MM in arbitration this coming season, and he’d be owed one more raise for that ’23 campaign. If Olson replicates this past season’s production, he’d surely command more than $30MM in total over the next two seasons.

That’s a steep price for a Guardians club that is also looking at two more years of control over franchise cornerstone Jose Ramirez. A perennial MVP candidate, Ramirez has seen his own name bandied about the rumor mill, though he’s seemed like a long-shot, at best, to be moved this offseason. On the one hand, pairing up Ramirez and Olson would give the Guardians a dynamic heart-of-the-order pairing around which to build for the next two years.

It’d be a surprise to see the typically low-payroll Guardians extend both (or even one) to the type of nine-figure deal either could command, but a 2022-23 core of Olson, Ramirez, Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale and Franmil Reyes would give Cleveland plenty of high-quality talent at the heart of the roster. And, if things did truly go south and push the front office to consider a sell-off, both Olson and Ramirez would remain among the most sought-after players available whenever they hit the market.

Braves, Rangers, Yankees Interested In Matt Olson

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3:45pm: The Braves have also been in contact about Olson, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweets.  Atlanta’s interest in Olson also dates back to before the lockout, as the World Series champs were exploring a potential fallback plan for first base if Freddie Freeman signed elsewhere.

9:09am: The Yankees considered the Athletics’ asking price prior to the lockout far too high, tweets SNY’s Andy Martino, who adds that the Yanks made clear they would not include top shortstop prospect Anthony Volpe in a potential deal.

7:45am: The lockout is over, and in the coming days, the dam will break on a historic flood of transactions. Athletics first baseman Matt Olson headlines a deep class of trade targets and serves as the focal point of a prospective Athletics fire sale, which GM David Forst alluded to back in November when acknowledging that the team would have to listen to trade offers on the majority of its roster this winter. It’s already known that the Rangers and Yankees are among the teams with interest in Olson, but their efforts to acquire him can now resume in earnest.

Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports that the Rangers planned to reach out to the A’s shortly after the lockout lifted to rekindle talks. Texas, however, would need to be confident in its ability to sign Olson to a contract extension before making a deal, per Grant. That’s sensible, as even after spending a half-billion dollars to sign Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, the Rangers are still a ways from contending. Olson is only controlled another two seasons, and if a playoff run in 2022 isn’t a legitimate possibility, then the prospect of really only having Olson for one year of earnest contention would make the sky-high prospect price perhaps unpalatable.

As for the Yankees, Newsday’s Erik Boland tweets that Olson is their preferred option for an upgrade at first base. The Yanks currently have Luke Voit (a trade candidate himself) and DJ LeMahieu as in-house options, but Voit is coming off an injury-marred season and doesn’t have nearly the same defensive prowess as Olson. LeMahieu is looking for a rebound at the plate himself and is better deployed as a second baseman or third baseman, where his glove carries more value. As we explored during the lockout, there are plenty of options for the Yankees, who have also been rumored to have varying degrees of interest in free agents Freddie Freeman and Anthony Rizzo.

With regard to the Rangers, it shouldn’t be assumed that they’ll be in on Freeman or Rizzo if they miss out on Olson. Grant characterizes Olson and lefty Clayton Kershaw as something of specialty targets for the Rangers, suggesting that if they’re not successful in acquiring one or both players, there may only be an additional $10-15MM in total spending for Texas this winter. Absent a deal for Olson, the Rangers would likely turn first base back over to Nathaniel Lowe, who had a solid year at the plate in 2021 (.264/.357/.415, 18 homers).

Texas and New York will be just two of a wide swath of teams interested in prying Olson away from Oakland. The Braves are known to have some interest as well but would probably only make a strike to acquire Olson if they know for certain that Freeman is headed elsewhere. Freeman, the 2020 NL MVP, has been linked to the Dodgers, Yankees, Blue Jays and even the Rays, who made him an offer before the lockout. The markets of the two star first basemen are inextricably linked, and with Freeman expected to act quickly in making a decision post-lockout, the market for Olson could soon gain some clarity.

While the A’s will be listening on more than just Olson — Matt Chapman, Frankie Montas, Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Ramon Laureano and Lou Trivino could also be marketed — there’s little denying that Olson is the headliner of their options and, arguably, of the entire trade market. The 2021 All-Star and two-time Gold Glover belted a career-high 39 home runs last year while posting the best all-around production of his Major League tenure. Olson hit .271/.371/.540 and maintained a huge 13.1% walk rate while simultaneously cutting his once-problematic strikeout rate from 31.4% in 2020 all the way down to 16.8%. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $12MM this coming season.

Latest On Freddie Freeman

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Freddie Freeman’s ultimate free-agent destination has been one of the more fascinating storylines of the offseason. At the outset of free agency, most felt a reunion with the Braves was a fait accompli, but as Freeman’s stay on the market has lingered, there’s been increasing speculation about him signing elsewhere.

We can’t know when we’ll get a resolution, thanks to the ongoing lockout, but Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that there’s an industry sense that Freeman will act quickly once the transaction freeze lifts. Specifically, Sherman suggests that within 48 hours of the freeze lifting, Freeman’s “path will be publicly known.” The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal suggested something similar, albeit without the specific timeline, when writing late last month that both Freeman and the Braves could “act quickly” post-lockout.

Freeman’s fate is a renewed talking point among Braves fans in the wake of this morning’s earnings report from Liberty Media, which owns the Braves, although the newly available public insight into the team’s financials likely has little to no impact on their pursuit of Freeman. It’s always been a question of whether ownership and/or the front office deems Freeman’s asking price to be a prudent long-term move for the organization, and the team knew those figures would be going public at this point.

Perhaps more interesting, however, is Sherman’s suggestion that one theoretical Freeman suitor, the Blue Jays, has been given ownership approval for a “large increase in payroll” even after the additions of George Springer, Kevin Gausman and Jose Berrios over the past year-plus. The Jays’ desire to add a left-handed bat to the mix isn’t exactly a new revelation; they reportedly pursued Corey Seager prior to his deal with the Rangers and have been speculatively tied to names like Kyle Schwarber and the since-retired Kyle Seager. The Jays were even linked to Freeman as far back as Nov. 30. More recently, Rosenthal said on Sportsnet that he expects the Jays to be involved on Freeman whenever the lockout lifts (video link).

Toronto is just one speculative alternative, and Freeman has also been heavily linked to the Dodgers and Yankees in addition to the incumbent Braves. ESPN’s Buster Olney suggested in a recent appearance on the Michael Kay Show (audio link, with Freeman talk starting around 11 minutes) that the Mets at least “checked in” on Freeman prior to the lockout, although SNY’s Andy Martino wrote this morning that the chances of a Freeman/Mets deal coming together border on nonexistent. Olney, too, mentions the Blue Jays as a team that has inquired on Freeman (along with the Dodgers), and he more broadly discusses a growing industry sentiment that Freeman won’t return to the Braves.

The Braves’ best offer to this point has reportedly been a five-year, $135MM contract. He’s said to be eyeing a six-year pact on the heels of another outstanding season. Freeman followed up his 2020 NL MVP Award with a .300/.393/.503 showing and 31 home runs during the regular season, plus a .304/.420/.625 line with five home runs in 69 postseason plate appearances. It was yet another impressive season for the ever-reliable first baseman, who has a wRC+ of 132 or better (indicating he’s been at least 32 percentage points more productive than the league average hitter) every year since 2013.

It’s certainly possible the Braves and Freeman can yet bridge the gap that remained in talks through the imposition of the lockout. Yet Atlanta has at least explored some alternatives. The Braves reportedly looked into Anthony Rizzo as a free agent possibility, and they’ve been mentioned as a potential trade partner with the A’s on Matt Olson on multiple occasions. Sherman speaks with a few agents and one rival executive who speculate that Atlanta could even pivot to pursuing an Olson trade between the time the lockout is lifted and when Freeman signs. The executive notes that someone like Kyle Wright — a big league ready starter who was formerly a top five draftee and highly-regarded prospect — fits the mold of the near-MLB talent the A’s could look for in an Olson deal. Wright no longer has the trade value to center a package that could persuade the A’s to part with Olson, but he’d be a sensible option for Oakland to explore as an ancillary piece in talks with Atlanta.

That’s conjecture from people outside the Atlanta organization, to be clear. What president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos and his staff have planned for the post-lockout scramble won’t become evident until offseason activity actually resumes. Yet the growing industry chatter reinforces that Freeman remaining in Atlanta may not be the lock many anticipated as the Braves entered the offseason riding high on a World Series title, particularly as other possible suitors loom.

Padres Among Teams Interested In Matt Olson

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Whenever transactions are again permitted to take place, A’s first baseman Matt Olson is among the most prominent names who’ll be discussed on the trade market. The 2021 All-Star and two-time Gold Glover has already been linked to the Yankees, Rangers and Braves, among others, and Dennis Lin of The Athletic suggests in his latest mailbag column that the Padres figure to be “in the mix” on Olson as well. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller has already at least touched base with the Oakland front office as part of a broader sweep of exploratory trade talks throughout the league, per Lin.

Interest notwithstanding, the Padres seem like a long shot to actually pull off a deal involving Olson for myriad reasons. San Diego already has Eric Hosmer installed at first base and signed for another four seasons at a total of $59MM. The Friars have reportedly pursued various trade scenarios involving Hosmer in an attempt to create payroll flexibility and reduce their luxury-tax ledger, but those efforts have unsurprisingly come up short.

Hosmer’s eight-year, $144MM deal with the Padres was widely panned from the start, and the first baseman’s tepid .264/.323/.415 batting line (99 wRC+) since signing hasn’t made the final four years of the contract any more appealing (though it should be noted that the contract is frontloaded, with Hosmer earning $20MM in 2022 and $13MM annually from 2023-25).

The universal designated hitter is viewed as something of a foregone conclusion by now, so one can imagine a scenario where Hosmer spends more time at DH and Olson plays first base. However, that’d still move the Padres’ payroll north by a good margin. Olson is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $12MM in 2022 before commanding one more raise in his final arbitration season in 2023. San Diego already has about $199MM on the books for the 2022 season, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez, in addition to about $215MM worth of luxury-tax obligations. The Padres narrowly exceeded the luxury tax in 2021, but it’s unclear whether they’d be willing to do so again in 2022 — particularly if it’s by a larger margin. Lin notes that owner Peter Seidler has “steadfastly declined” to discuss payroll and luxury tax to this point.

That $215MM figure is a substantial factor in the Padres’ reported efforts to move Hosmer and/or right fielder Wil Myers (who’s owed $21MM in the final season of a six-year, $83MM extension himself). Perhaps if the Padres could find a way to shed one or both salaries, the subsequent luxury breathing room could then be make a potential Olson acquisition more feasible. That, however, would require time to be on the Padres’ side — which is not the case. Post-lockout transactions are expected to be frenetic, and it doesn’t figure to be easy for Preller & Co. to find a trade involving Hosmer or Myers. The San Diego front office has been investigating trades involving the pair for at least the past year, after all — and longer than that with regard to Myers. If an Olson acquisition is predicated on moving Hosmer and/or Myers, it’s hard to imagine there’d be time to complete that deal then circle back to the A’s.

Some might suggest that the Padres simply try to send Hosmer back to Oakland as part of a deal, offering better prospects in return to push a deal across the finish line. That scenario appears decidedly unlikely, though. The cost on Olson figures to be sky-high in the first place, and the driving factor behind Oakland’s ostensibly looming sell-off is a desire to pare payroll. Taking on Hosmer’s deal runs counter to that. Lin speculates that the Padres could try to engineer a three-team swap that places Hosmer with a third team and Olson in San Diego, but that’s obviously an even more ambitious undertaking than simply finding a taker for Olson in a more straightforward two-team deal.

One wild card in all of this is the uncertainty surrounding the status of the luxury tax/competitive balance tax itself. The tax thresholds are a key talking point in collective bargaining talks between the league and the Players Association. The MLBPA is seeking major increases to the tax thresholds, beginning with a jump all the way to $245MM this coming season and cresting with a $273MM threshold in 2026. The league, meanwhile, has only been willing to offer far more marginal increases: $214MM in 2022-23 and incremental increases up to $222MM in 2026. MLB is also seeking to greatly increase the penalties for crossing the threshold, which the MLBPA considers a nonstarter.

[Related: Latest Collective Bargaining Positions For MLB, MLBPA]

It’s possible that whatever middle ground is reached will come with enough of an uptick in the first threshold that the Padres could technically squeeze Olson into the fray without needing to pay the tax. However, the Padres are also facing needs elsewhere on the roster — namely in one corner outfield spot. If the hope is to add an outfielder and/or deepen the pitching staff or bench at all, then San Diego would be looking at shoehorning more than just Olson’s salary into the puzzle.

All of that is based on a theoretical stance that Padres ownership is deterred by the luxury tax alone, but we can’t know that for certain. Last year’s bottom-line payroll of nearly $174MM shattered the former franchise-record payroll by more than $60MM. The current $199MM projection further trounces that number, and adding Olson and any others to the mix would bring the Padres well north of $200MM in actual 2022 salaries (and quite a bit higher in terms of AAV-based luxury calculations). It would require an unprecedented level of spending for the Padres, and we can’t know at what point ownership will simply be uncomfortable with further expenditures. It’s possible they’ve already reached that juncture.

To sum up a bit, there’s good reason to expect the Padres will indeed try to make something happen on the Olson front. Preller has shown time and again that he’ll always explore creative options when marquee talents are available. San Diego hired manager Bob Melvin away from the A’s earlier this offseason, and Melvin would surely love to have his former franchise first baseman follow him down I-5. If the Padres were to somehow move Hosmer, they’d have an opening at first base. It all makes sense on paper, and various permutations of Olson-to-San Diego deals or three-team blockbusters involving Olson, Hosmer, Myers and top prospects make for fun hypotheticals with Major League transactions approaching a three-month standstill.

At the end of the day, however, there are so many moving parts involved even in these theoretical exercises that it’s hard to see the Padres finding a way to make the pieces work. Still, even a tangential Padres involvement in the Olson market is of some note. Their lurking presence could carry implications on the asking price Oakland can put forth to other clubs, and if trade talks with other suitors drag on long enough post-lockout, it’d only give the Padres more time to pull off their latest trade-market stunner.

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