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Post-Lockout Trade Candidates: 27 Regulars Who Could Plausibly Change Teams

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In recent days, MLBTR has taken a look at some players who could find themselves on the move between the conclusion of the lockout and the start of the season. First, Tim Dierkes looked at the league’s 14 likeliest trade candidates. Steve Adams then ran through some impact players who, to varying degrees, could find themselves in trade rumors whenever transactions resume.

Today we’ll look at other regulars who we could envision changing uniforms in the relatively near future. Acquiring any of the players on today’s list wouldn’t be quite as splashy as landing the stars we covered last week, but it’s easy to envision any one of them assuming an important, regular role on a new team.

Before we get into the list, a quick note on methodology. In defining “plausible” trade candidates, we looked at players we felt had somewhere between a 20% and 50% chance of being dealt before the start of the season. It’s not meant to be an exhaustive list of trade possibilities — almost any player around the league could theoretically move if another team made the right offer — but it’s meant to capture a tier of regulars we wouldn’t be surprised to see change hands. In an exercise of this nature, there has to be a somewhat arbitrary line that delineates the last of the players who, in our view, are “plausible” trade candidates. Players like Gary Sánchez and Jesús Aguilar were discussed internally but fell just on the other side of that line.

Now, on to the list. The players are ordered by what we feel to be their likelihood of getting traded (all arbitration projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz):

John Means, Orioles SP

Buster Olney of ESPN reported in November that the Orioles were “dangling” Means in trade talks. Baltimore’s rebuilding and seemingly amenable to offers on anyone on the roster, but it remains to be seen how actively they’ll push to make their top starting pitcher available. With Means controllable through 2024 and projected for a modest $3.1MM salary, the O’s needn’t force a deal this offseason.

The 28-year-old presents a tricky evaluation for teams. He got off to an excellent start to the season, posting a 2.28 ERA (albeit with a 4.20 FIP) through his first 71 innings. Means then landed on the injured list with a shoulder strain. After returning in July, he posted a 4.88 ERA down the stretch, watching his strikeout rate tumble almost six percentage points in the process. The medical evaluation will be critical, but teams that are comfortable with the state of Means’ shoulder moving forward might expect him to regain the strong mid-rotation form he showed early in the year.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Rangers SS/3B

Kiner-Falefa has been a solid regular for the Rangers for the past couple seasons. He spent 2020 at third base, then was tasked with moving up the defensive spectrum to shortstop last year. Defensive Runs Saved loved his glovework at short; Statcast’s Outs Above Average did not. Kiner-Falefa finished third in the 2021 Fielding Bible shortstop award voting. There’s not much question he’s a very good defender at the hot corner, and most teams would probably at least feel comfortable with him moonlighting at shortstop if need be.

Texas remade their middle infield in free agency, signing Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. Kiner-Falefa could kick back to third base, but the Rangers have top prospect Josh Jung nearing big league readiness at the position. Controllable for two more seasons and projected for a $4.9MM salary, he could stick around as a utility guy. But if another team buys him as a plus defender at shortstop, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Texas ship him somewhere he can continue playing everyday. Kiner-Falefa’s .271/.312/.357 line fits better at the bottom of a lineup, but he brings good contact skills and a solid infield glove to the table. MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored the possibility of a Kiner-Falefa trade at greater length this afternoon.

Raimel Tapia, Rockies LF

Reports out of Denver have suggested the Rockies could look to move Tapia, projected for a $3.9MM salary in his second-to-last arbitration-eligible season. The Rox need to bolster an offense that was among the league’s worst last year, and they’re seemingly planning to make a splash in the corner outfield. That’d probably push Tapia — who’s spent almost his entire MLB career in left field — out of the everyday lineup.

Tapia has never hit at the level one would hope from an everyday left fielder. One could argue he’s better suited for a fourth outfield role regardless. He’s a plus runner with good bat-to-ball skills, though, and he ranked among Baseball America’s top 50 overall prospects back in 2017. It’s certainly not out of the question another team takes a flier on him, particularly if the Rockies are willing to take a minimal return after acquiring his replacement.

Chris Paddack, Padres SP

The pre-lockout agreement with Nick Martínez bumped a bunch of the Friars’ younger arms down a peg on the rotation depth chart. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently explored, that could pave the way for them to move one of their controllable starters. If they do, Paddack looks the likeliest of the bunch. He’s arbitration-eligible and projected for a $2.1MM salary. That’s certainly affordable, but the Padres could be looking to open some payroll space after exceeding the luxury tax threshold last year.

Paddack has had back-to-back down seasons after a promising rookie campaign. But he’s still only 26 years old, boasts pristine control, and teams can dream on him recapturing his 2019 form. That he’s controllable for three seasons could be of particular appeal to teams like the Rangers and Nationals (who expressed interest at last summer’s deadline) who might be eyeing 2023 as a more plausible contention year.

Ryan Yarbrough, Rays SP

Yarbrough has been a flexible member of the Rays pitching staff for the past few years. He’s worked variably as a traditional long reliever, a bulk man behind an opener and as a true starting pitcher. Yarbrough posted an ERA of 4.13 or lower in each of his first three seasons, but he scuffled to a 5.11 mark in 2021. That came without meaningful changes to his strikeout and walk numbers, though, and Yarbrough remained excellent at avoiding hard contact.

The Rays likely anticipate the southpaw will return to form, but his price is escalating. Tampa Bay is already projected for a franchise-record payroll, so it wouldn’t be surprising if they move some of their arbitration-eligible players for pre-arb or minor league talent. Yarbrough is projected for a $4.4MM salary and remains under team control through 2024.

Austin Meadows, Rays LF/DH

Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times wrote over the weekend that the Rays could be open to moving Meadows, who is projected for a $4.3MM salary. Controllable through 2024, Meadows would be a long-term option for Tampa Bay or any potential acquiring team, but the Rays have proven willing to field offers on almost anyone on the roster. And with the aforementioned payroll outlook for the typically low-spending club, the front office figures to be amenable to ways to pare back costs.

Meadows is coming off a decent season, in which he hit .234/.315/.458 with 27 homers over 591 plate appearances. That marked a bounceback from a below-average offensive showing during the shortened 2020 schedule, but it’s a fair bit shy of his career-best .291/.364/.558 line the season before that. Meadows isn’t a great defender, so he needs to mash to be a star. He did that in 2019, but he’s otherwise been a good-not-great hitter. That’s still a valuable player to have on hand, but unless the Rays anticipate him replicating his peak season this year, it’d be sensible to listen to offers.

Tony Kemp, Athletics 2B/LF

Kemp has bounced around the league a bit in recent seasons. He plays second base and left field, but advanced metrics have pegged him as a fringy defender at the keystone. Kemp doesn’t bring a ton of power to the table, and he’s already 30 years old. It’s not the easiest profile to make work, explaining why he has yet to find a long-term home.

There’s no questioning Kemp’s 2021 results, though. Over 397 plate appearances, he hit .279/.382/.418. Both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference pegged him as worth around three wins above replacement. Kemp has excellent plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills, and he could be trending towards a late-career emergence in the mold of former A’s second baseman Tommy La Stella. The market for teams on the hunt for second base help is pretty thin. Kemp, who avoided arbitration on a $2.25MM salary and is controllable through 2023, would be an affordable pickup if the A’s move him as part of their anticipated post-lockout efforts to trim payroll and reboot the roster.

Manuel Margot, Rays OF

MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently looked at the possibility of the Rays making Margot available. He’s projected for a $5MM arbitration salary as he enters his final year of club control. That’s a reasonable salary for a player of Margot’s caliber, but Tampa Bay has plenty of cheaper, controllable outfielders on hand, and top prospect Josh Lowe looks ready to step into an everyday role somewhere in the grass after a monster season in Triple-A.

It’s not out of the question Tampa trades away multiple outfielders, but if they move the more expensive Kevin Kiermaier, Margot sticking around to handle center field is certainly possible. The latter might have broader appeal around the league, though. Not only is he set to make around a third of Kiermaier’s remaining guarantees, Statcast credited Margot with a league-best +16 Outs Above Average in the outfield last year. He’s never been more than an average hitter, but acceptable offense coupled with Gold Glove caliber defense is a very valuable player. There’s also a dearth of center fielders available in free agency at this point.

Max Kepler, Twins OF

MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently broke down Kepler’s trade candidacy at great length. Guaranteed $16.25MM through 2023 and controllable for 2024 via club option, he’d be an affordable target for teams seeking outfield help. Yet Kepler’s offensive production has ticked down towards league average following what seemed to be a breakout showing in 2019. The Twins might prefer to hold onto him in hopes he rediscovers that form, but they just extended Byron Buxton and have former top prospects Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach in the fold as corner outfield options. A Kepler deal could be a creative way to address some of the team’s other issues in the starting rotation or at shortstop.

Danny Jansen/Alejandro Kirk, Blue Jays C

The Jays’ catching depth has been a topic of conversation throughout the offseason. Would Toronto part with one of their controllable backstops to land help in the rotation or infield? The signing of Kevin Gausman probably diminishes their need to land an impact starter via trade, although they’re likely to at least look for depth pieces.

Reese McGuire is a capable backup catcher who’s out of minor league options. Top prospect Gabriel Moreno is rapidly approaching and could be in the majors by the end of the season. Jansen offers a solid bend of power and defensive acumen, while Kirk has otherworldly bat-to-ball skills and an elite minor league track record. Toronto doesn’t have to move anyone from this group, but it could be an opportunity to consolidate their catching depth for help elsewhere on the roster.

Amed Rosario, Guardians SS/CF

Cleveland acquired Rosario from the Mets as part of the Francisco Lindor trade last offseason. His offensive numbers (.282/.321/.409) were fine, although neither Defensive Runs Saved nor Statcast was fond of his glovework at shortstop. Rosario’s aggressive approach at the plate will probably keep him from emerging as the star many envisioned he’d become as a prospect, but he has alright career hitting numbers, runs well and could be an option for teams at any of the up-the-middle positions on the diamond (aside from catcher).

The Guardians have a lot of infield depth, with several talented prospects in the high minors and already on the 40-man roster. With their seemingly annual need for outfield help, a Rosario trade could help balance the roster. Cleveland could also just give him more run in center or left field themselves, but it might be more straightforward to trade him to an infield-needy team with an outfield surplus. Rosario is projected for a $5MM salary and controllable through 2023.

Josh Bell, Nationals 1B

I covered Bell’s trade candidacy in greater length in late December. The Nationals are taking a step back in 2022, and he’s entering his final year of club control. A projected $10MM salary might scare away some suitors, but Bell would be a notable offensive upgrade for many teams around the league. The switch-hitter posted a .261/.347/.476 season-long mark, and he had an excellent 277/.381/.506 line with more walks than strikeouts after the All-Star Break.

Garrett Cooper, Marlins 1B/COF

Cooper has looked like a viable trade candidate for a few seasons. He’s part of a corner outfield/first base rotation in Miami that got a bit more crowded when the Fish signed Avisaíl García. The Marlins have suggested they could use García as their regular center fielder, but that’s less than ideal. If they land a center fielder after the lockout and push García to a more suitable right field role, Cooper might find himself squeezed for playing time.

A late bloomer, Cooper’s already 31 years old. He has quietly been a very productive hitter when healthy, though, including an excellent .284/.371/.478 line (133 wRC+) in 383 plate appearances since the start of 2020. Health is a big caveat for Cooper, who has had stints on the injured list in all five of his MLB seasons and missed the second half of last year with a left elbow injury. As MLBTR’s TC Zencka explored in December, he’d returned to taking batting practice and figures to be ready for 2022. Projected for a modest $3MM salary with an additional season of control thereafter, he could be an interesting flier, particularly for NL teams looking to add offense if/when the universal designated hitter is finalized.

Anthony Santander, Orioles RF/LF

Santander’s name has been floated around the rumor mill in years past. The Orioles are rebuilding, and he’s more of a complimentary piece than a likely member of the long-term core. Santander is limited to the corner outfield and has a very aggressive approach, though, making it crucial he makes plenty of contact and hits for power. He did that in the shortened 2020 season en route to a .261/.315/.575 line, but he couldn’t follow up on that success.

Last season, Santander had a couple injured list stints and struggled to a .241/.286/.433 mark. He signed for $3.15MM to avoid arbitration in November and remains controllable through 2024. Given their competitive window, the O’s would certainly listen to offers on Santander. But it remains to be seen whether there’ll be sufficient demand that Baltimore wouldn’t be better off hanging onto him and hoping he approximates his 2020 performance over the first few months of next season. MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald recently explored Santander’s trade candidacy in greater depth.

Zach Plesac, Guardians SP

Plesac isn’t yet arbitration eligible and he’s controllable for another four seasons. The Guardians might simply prefer to hang onto him, particularly after their 2021 season was derailed by rotation injuries. Yet as mentioned with regards to Rosario, Cleveland has significant concerns in the outfield. They’ve dealt key starting pitchers over the past couple seasons, seemingly confident in their ability to continue to develop less-heralded prospects into capable rotation cogs.

If they were to deal a starter, Plesac would seem the likeliest candidate. The Guardians aren’t about to rebuild, and moving Shane Bieber or Aaron Civale might be too significant a blow to their hopes of contending in 2022. Triston McKenzie and Cal Quantrill might still have upside Cleveland’s hoping to unlock. Plesac’s small sample excellence in 2020 was probably inflated by a regional schedule against Central-division teams that, by and large, weren’t good offensively. That season aside, he hasn’t posted particularly impressive strikeout rates. But he’s got excellent control, gets a decent number of grounders, and should be a solid bet for league average rotation innings over the next few seasons.

Merrill Kelly, Diamondbacks SP

The D-Backs were the worst team in the National League last season. They don’t seem to have the appetite for a full rebuild, but Kelly’s entering his final year of club control. At age 33, he’s probably not an extension candidate, so Arizona figures to be open to moving him.

Kelly’s not an overpowering arm. He posted a 4.44 ERA over 158 innings last season, striking out only 19.5% of batters faced. He throws plenty of strikes, though, and he gets a decent number of grounders. Playing on a modest $5.25MM salary, Kelly would be an eminently affordable pickup for contenders looking to stabilize the back of the rotation.

Mitch Garver/Ryan Jeffers, Twins C

Garver missed a good chunk of last season after suffering a gruesome injury. During his 243 plate appearances, he mashed at a .256/.358/.517 clip with 13 home runs (137 wRC+). That’s two of the past three seasons with some of the best offensive output of any catcher in baseball. He’s controllable for two seasons and projected for a modest $3.1MM salary. Jeffers hasn’t yet hit arbitration-eligibility and still has minor league options remaining. He struck out too often as a rookie, but he hit for power and is a well-regarded defender who entered the year among the sport’s top catching prospects.

As with Kepler, a trade of Garver or Jeffers would probably be about dealing from an area of surplus to address the rotation or shortstop. Both players could plausibly be regular catchers next season, and they’d lose some of their value if penciled into the DH role regularly. Given Garver’s injury troubles, Minnesota might prefer to hold their depth behind the dish.

Elieser Hernández, Marlins SP

The Marlins have reportedly fielded offers on their arbitration-eligible starting pitchers this winter, perhaps in search of controllable outfield help. Miami already thinned their rotation depth a bit by including Zach Thompson in the Jacob Stallings deal, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if they make one more move in that vein.

Over the past two years, Hernández owns a 3.84 ERA in 77 1/3 innings with very strong strikeout and walk rates (26.3% and 5.7%, respectively). He’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher who’s likely to always have some difficulty keeping the ball in the yard. He missed most of 2021 recovering from a pair of long-term injuries (biceps inflammation and a quad strain). Because of those drawbacks, he won’t be in as much demand as rotation mate Pablo López. Yet another team may try to take a shot on Hernández’s promising strikeout/walk profile, particularly since he’s only projected for a $1.4MM salary and controllable through 2024.

Chris Stratton, Pirates RP

I covered Stratton’s trade candidacy at greater length in December. He’s a 31-year-old reliever controllable for two seasons on a rebuilding team. The Bucs aren’t going to view him as a core piece of the rebuild, and it stands to reason they’d welcome the opportunity to pick up an intriguing low-level prospect. Over the past two seasons, Stratton has been the kind of capable if unexciting middle relief piece contending teams need. He won’t bring back a franchise-changing return, but at a projected $2.2MM salary, he should draw some interest.

Cole Sulser, Orioles RP

Sulser had a quietly strong second half with the Orioles, occasionally factoring into their closing mix. A late bloomer, he’ll be 32 by Opening Day. So while they’re under no contractual pressure to move him, the rebuilding O’s would certainly listen to offers. After putting up a 2.70 ERA with a 28.4% strikeout rate, he should be of interest to contenders. Sulser isn’t yet arbitration eligible and can be controlled through 2025.

Adrian Houser/Eric Lauer, Brewers SP

The Brewers certainly aren’t obligated to trade either of Houser or Lauer, both of whom are coming off strong seasons. Still, the Brew Crew already have a vaunted top three of Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta and prospects Aaron Ashby and Ethan Small are at or nearing the big leagues. Might Milwaukee plug one of the younger arms into the rotation and flip a veteran back-end starter for offensive help?

Adalberto Mondesi, Royals 3B/SS

Mondesi’s an enigmatic player. He brings an enviable combination of power and speed and has enough athleticism to play a competent or better shortstop. He also has among the worst strikeout and walk numbers of any regular position player in MLB. Perhaps most alarming, he’s dealt with enough injury issues in recent years that Royals president of baseball operations Dayton Moore expressed some doubt about his ability to play more than 100 games per season regularly.

Nicky Lopez played well enough to supplant Mondesi at shortstop last year. Bobby Witt Jr. will probably take that position early in 2022, pushing Lopez somewhere else on the dirt. Whit Merrifield is still around as a second base option. Kansas City might have enough infield depth to explore a Mondesi trade, although it’d be a bit of a sell-low on a player with obvious physical gifts who’s controllable through 2023. He’s projected for a $3.2MM salary.

Kyle Hendricks, Cubs SP

Hendricks is guaranteed $29.5MM through the next two seasons, with a vesting option that could keep him in Chicago through 2024. The Cubs have moved most of their core players dating back to last offseason, but Hendricks remains on the North Side. That might be attributable to some uncharacteristic struggles, as the righty’s coming off a career-worst 4.77 ERA with unimpressive peripherals.

Hendricks has never struck batters out or fared exceptionally well in the eyes of ERA estimators, though. Until last season, his actual run prevention handily outperformed metrics like FIP and SIERA as he thrived on exceptional command. He’ll probably bounce back, even if he may never recapture his Cy Young-caliber, 2.13 ERA form from 2016. With the amount of teams on the hunt for starting pitching, there’d no doubt still be demand if the Cubs made Hendricks available. Will they? Perhaps, since they’re not likely to compete in 2022. Yet their early-offseason activity — signing Yan Gomes and Marcus Stroman, claiming Wade Miley — has suggested they may not be keen to punt next season entirely.

Trey Mancini, Orioles 1B

The Orioles aren’t going to compete in 2022, and Mancini is ticketed for free agency at the end of the year. Most players in his situation would be very straightforward trade candidates, but the first baseman is a fan favorite and reported clubhouse leader who made an inspiring return to the diamond last year after missing the 2020 campaign battling colon cancer.

That Mancini returned to play in 147 games after facing that kind of life obstacle is a remarkable achievement. It’s undeniable, though, that his production slipped relative to his excellent 2019 campaign. Mancini’s .255/.326/.432 line was only marginally above average, and he played exclusively first base and designated hitter. It certainly wouldn’t be surprising to see him bounce back into a middle-of-the-order presence as he gets further away from beating cancer, but demand for his services might be limited until his production rebounds. If that’s the case, it’s probably not worth it for the O’s to trade him away this offseason. He’s projected for a $7.9MM salary, but Balitmore’s 2022 payroll ledger is wide open.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: 11/29/21

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With the non-tender deadline on the horizon, expect quite a few players to agree to contracts for the 2022 season over the next 24 hours, avoiding arbitration in advance. In many (but not all) cases, these deals — referred to as “pre-tender” deals because they fall prior to the deadline — will fall shy of expectations and projections. Teams will sometimes present borderline non-tender candidates with a “take it or leave it” style offer which will be accepted for fear of being non-tendered and sent out into an uncertain market. Speculatively, such deals could increase this offseason due to a desire among players to avoid the potential uncertainty of a lockout and accompanying transactions freeze after the current collective bargaining agreement expires Wednesday evening.

View projected salaries by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz:

Today’s Agreements

  • The Athletics have agreed to deals with utilitymen Chad Pinder and Tony Kemp, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (via Twitter). Pinder will make $2.725MM, while Kemp lands a $2.25MM salary. Pinder, a career-long member of the organization, is headed into his final season of arbitration control. Kemp remains controllable through 2023. Pinder hit .243/.300/.411 in 2021; Kemp’s coming off a very productive .279/.382/.418 showing.
  • The Pirates announced they’ve agreed to terms with outfielder Ben Gamel. The 29-year-old will receive a $1.8MM guarantee, with the opportunity to earn an additional $200K in incentives based on plate appearance thresholds, reports Rosenthal (on Twitter). Gamel is entering his final year of club control, coming off a .247/.347/.388 showing over 400 plate appearances between Cleveland and Pittsburgh.
  • The Nationals announced agreement with outfielder Andrew Stevenson. He’ll receive an $850K salary, reports Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (on Twitter). The 27-year-old qualified for arbitration as a Super Two player and will remain under club control through 2025 so long as he sticks on the 40-man roster. He hit .229/.294/.339 with five homers over 213 plate appearances this past season.

A’s Loaded Arbitration Class Will Lead To Some Tough Decisions

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The Athletics are squarely in the mix for the second American League Wild Card and, with six remaining games against the first-place Astros still on the schedule, are still alive in the division chase in the American League West as well. Oakland currently trails Houston by four and a half games, so with 28 games left to play, there’s time for a surge to overtake the current leaders.

Oakland’s proximity to a division title and their (at the time) status as a team in possession of the second Wild Card spot surely emboldened the team to go for it at this year’s trade deadline. The acquisition of Andrew Chafin was a solid addition to an already-sound bullpen, but it was the team’s trade for Starling Marte that really grabbed headlines. That’s in part due to Marte’s status as one of the more prominent names on the summer trade market but also due to the fact that Oakland parted with longtime top prospect Jesus Luzardo — five years of control over him to be exact — in exchange for a rental player who’ll be a free agent at season’s end.

At the time of the trade, I touched on this a bit, but it’s a concept  that bears a bit more detail. The Athletics have every reason to act aggressively on the trade deadline this summer, because barring a major uptick in the team’s typically thrifty payroll, this could be something of a last hurrah for the current Oakland core.

The A’s don’t have much on the payroll next season — just Elvis Andrus $14MM salary (of which the Rangers are paying $7.25MM) and Stephen Piscotty’s $7.25MM salary. The A’s have a $4MM club option on Jake Diekman that comes with a $750K buyout as well. Most clubs would probably pick that up given his strong season, but it’s at least feasible that given the forthcoming payroll crunch that will be laid out here shortly, the A’s could pass on it.

Those minimal contractual guarantees look nice at first glance, but the Athletics have an enormous arbitration class on the horizon — and it’s not just large in terms of volume. It’s a talented and experienced group of players featuring the majority of Oakland’s most recognizable names: Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Ramon Laureano, Frankie Montas, Lou Trivino, Chad Pinder, Tony Kemp, Deolis Guerra, Burch Smith and (depending on his final service time numbers) perhaps Adam Kolarek. Of that bunch, Manaea and Bassitt are up for their final arbitration raises — the former as a Super Two player. Chapman, Olson, Montas and Trivino are getting their second raises.

I wanted to better ascertain just how expensive a class this is going to be for the Athletics, so I reached out to MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for some help. Matt created MLBTR’s Arbitration Projection model, and I asked if he’d be able to put together some projections for the Athletics’ class based on the seasons they’ve had to date. Matt did just that, tacking on each player’s rest-of-season projections from the Steamer projection system to their actual production to date, coming up with the following projections:

  • Matt Olson: $11.8MM
  • Sean Manaea: $10.1MM
  • Matt Chapman: $9.8MM
  • Chris Bassitt: $8.9MM
  • Frankie Montas: $4.8MM
  • Lou Trivino: $3.0MM
  • Ramon Laureano: $2.8MM
  • Chad Pinder: $2.7MM
  • Tony Kemp: $1.8MM
  • Burch Smith: $1MM
  • Deolis Guerra: $900K
  • Adam Kolarek: $800K

(One caveat on the projections themselves: these raises are determined using the 2021 model and standard inflation for the 2022 season. Major League Baseball and the MLBPA agreed not to use 2021 arbitration raises as precedent-setters because of the anomalous nature of last year’s short-season data.)

In all, it’s a projected total of $58.4MM. Add that to the combined salaries of Andrus and Piscotty, and the A’s are up to $72.4MM — $76.4MM if they exercise the option on Diekman. That’s what they’d owe to just 15 players. There are some possible non-tenders in there (Smith and Kolarek, certainly), but for the most part, all of the major names should be expected to be tendered. We don’t know precisely what next year’s minimum salary will be due to the expiring collective bargaining agreement, but even filling out the roster with players earning this year’s minimum would take them up to nearly $80MM — about $6MM shy of their current payroll.

Of course, we know that you can’t simply supplement this group with pre-arbitration players, because the rest of the current roster isn’t made up of pre-arb players. The A’s currently stand to lose not only Marte but also Mark Canha, Yan Gomes, Yusmeiro Petit, Sergio Romo, Jed Lowrie, Mitch Moreland, Josh Harrison, Mike Fiers and Khris Davis to free agency. Replace that group with readily available, in-house options and you’re probably not looking at a playoff team — certainly not with the Mariners, Angels and Rangers both looking to improve their rosters this winter, making for even tougher competition within the division.

The A’s have never carried an Opening Day payroll greater than $92MM, per Cot’s Contracts — their prorated 2020 payroll may have gotten there — so an arbitration class worth more than $55MM is an immensely expensive group for ownership. Some of this crunch could be alleviated by trying to find a taker for Andrus and/or Piscotty, though moving either player might necessitate the A’s paying some of the freight (or taking a lesser contract in return). As previously mentioned, some non-tenders could get the bottom-line number down as well.

It’s always possible, too, that ownership simply bites the bullet and pays up for a franchise-record payroll. We haven’t seen that level of spending in the past, though, and this is the same A’s team that only agreed to pay its minor leaguers a $400 weekly stipend after considerable public relations backlash during last summer’s pandemic — a move that only cost them about a million dollars. The A’s also had the Marlins foot the bill for all of Marte’s remaining salary. Perhaps that was in preparation for a payroll hike this winter, but that’d be a rather charitable interpretation when history and precedent tell us this is a team that is already pushing the upper levels of its comfort from a payroll standpoint.

All of this is to say: the Athletics certainly have the look of a team that is going to have to make some tough decisions this winter. They can either take payroll to new heights, look to move Andrus and/or Piscotty (which would likely mean attaching a prospect and further depleting a thin farm), or listen to offers on some names who’ve become staples on the roster.

Parting with a starter such as Manaea or Bassitt would be difficult, but both are slated to become free agents following the 2022 season. Both Chapman and Olson have two arbitration raises left, which means both are going to be owed a raise on top of that already sizable arbitration projection following the ’22 campaign. Both are on a path toward $15MM-plus salaries in 2023 — especially if Chapman is able to maintain his recent surge at the plate and return to his pre-hip surgery levels of offensive output.

Whatever route the Athletics ultimately decide to take, the organization and its fans are in for a good bit of change this winter. That could mean changes to the payroll or changes to the composition of a core group of players who’ve been quite successful since coming together a few years back. Regardless of which path they choose, it’s understandable that the A’s opted to be aggressive at this year’s deadline; with Canha, Marte and several relievers set for free agency and a huge arbitration class that could force some financially-motivated trades, this looks like the current group’s best and perhaps final chance to make a deep playoff run together.

Jed Lowrie To Make Athletics’ Opening Day Roster

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The A’s are going to add Jed Lowrie to the Opening Day roster, manager Bob Melvin announced to reporters (including Martín Gallegos of MLB.com and Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle). Oakland still needs to formally select Lowrie’s contract but has a vacant 40-man roster spot to do so.

Interestingly, the A’s plan to deploy Lowrie as the primary second baseman, Melvin said. Lowrie obviously had quite a bit of success in that role in 2018, when he hit .267/.353/.448 and earned an All-Star selection. However, the 36-year-old (37 in April) hasn’t played a single inning on defense since then on account of knee injuries.

Lowrie’s 2019-20 stint with the Mets was a disaster, as those health woes limited him to just eight total plate appearances (none last season). He returned to the A’s on a minor-league deal over the offseason. Lowrie does have a long track record of being a productive regular, which can’t be said of either Tony Kemp or Chad Pinder. The A’s will certainly keep tabs on his workload, but Lowrie looks to once again be Oakland’s go-to option at the keystone.

Quick Hits: Brewers, Orioles, Rockies, A’s

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The Brewers will defer payments to both Jackie Bradley Jr. and Kolten Wong. Doing so allows the Brewers to add their salaries even amid the lost revenue of the coronavirus era, per Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (via Twitter). The Brewers will only pay out $3.5MM of Bradley’s $24MM total money this season, while Wong will receive just $3MM. Wong’s contract eventually will pay out $18MM in guaranteed money. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter) provides a fuller picture of Bradley’s deal. The latest possible payment Bradley will receive is a $7MM buyout for the 2023 season, which he would receive on January 1st, 2025. Elsewhere around the game…

  • Maryland Governor Larry Hogan announced that sports venues will be allowed to open in his state at 50 percent capacity, per WBAL Anchor Phil Yacuboski and others (via Twitter). For the Orioles to open the doors at Camden Yards on opening day, they’ll still need approval from Mayor Brandon Scott, notes Pete Kerzel of MASNSports.com (via Twitter). That last bit of bureaucracy notwithstanding, it does appear that the O’s will have fans in the stands for 2021.
  • The Rockies have also been cleared to open the doors at Coors Field. With the help of MLB and state government officials, the Rockies can now host up to 21,363 fans per game, up from an initial limit of 12,500, writes MLB.com’s Thomas Harding.
  • Jed Lowrie returned to the diamond today starting at second base for the Athletics. Persistent knee problems limited the 36-year-old to just nine games the past two seasons with the Mets. Of course, the A’s know Lowrie well. If he makes the team, it will be his third stint in Oakland after posting 3.2 bWAR in 1,228 plate appearances across 2013-14, then returning for 7.4 bWAR in 1,694 plate appearances from 2016-18. In his last season in Oakland, he was a first-time All-Star at the age of 34 after slashing .267/.353/.448 with 23  home runs. A lot rides on Lowrie making the team. If he does, Tony Kemp and Chad Pinder better fit into their roles as utility options off the bench, writes Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle. If Lowrie doesn’t make the team, Kemp and Pinder will likely share the keystone in a more-or-less straight-up platoon.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: 12/1/20

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With the non-tender deadline on the horizon tomorrow, expect quite a few players to agree to contracts for the 2021 season, avoiding arbitration in advance. In many (but not all) cases, these deals — referred to as “pre-tender” deals because they fall prior to the deadline — will fall shy of expectations and projections. Teams will sometimes present borderline non-tender candidates with a “take it or leave it” style offer which will be accepted for fear of being non-tendered and sent out into an uncertain market. Speculatively, such deals could increase in 2020 due to the economic uncertainty sweeping through the game, although there are also widespread expectations of record non-tender numbers.

You can track all of the arbitration and non-tender activity here, and we’ll also run through today’s smaller-scale pre-tender deals in this post.  You can also check out Matt Swartz’s arbitration salary projections here.

Latest Agreements

  • Athletics second baseman Tony Kemp will get $1.05MM over one year, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle relays.
  • The Rockies announced that they have re-signed righty Jairo Diaz to a one-year pact. It’s worth $1.1MM, Feinsand tweets.
  • The Phillies and righty reliever Seranthony Dominguez have a one-year, $727,500 deal, according to Feinsand. Dominguez underwent Tommy John surgery at the end of June, so he might not pitch at all in 2021.
  • The Athletics and utility player Chad Pinder reached a one-year, $2.275MM deal, per Nightengale. Pinder has two seasons of team control left.
  • The Orioles and catcher Pedro Severino agreed to a one-year deal worth $1.825MM, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports (Twitter link).  There was some speculation that Severino could be a non-tender candidate, though he has posted pretty decent numbers over two seasons as Baltimore’s primary catcher.  Severino is controllable through the 2023 season.
  • The Nationals and right-hander Joe Ross agreed to a one-year, $1.5MM contract, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets.  This is a match of the salary Ross and the Nats had agreed on for the 2020 season, but Ross decided to opt out back in June.  This was Ross’ third year of arbitration eligibility, and is now expected to return and compete for a job in Washington’s rotation in 2021.
  • The Royals agreed to one-year deals with righties Jesse Hahn and Jakob Junis and outfielder Franchy Cordero, according to Feinsand and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter links).  Hahn signed for $1.75MM in guaranteed money with another $350K available in incentives.  Junis will rake in $1.7MM. Cordero will earn $800K in his first arbitration-eligible year.

Earlier Agreements

  • The Athletics and righty Burch Smith agreed to a one-year deal worth $705K, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets.  The 30-year-old Smith allowed three runs on seven hits and a walk with 13 strikeouts in 12 2/3 frames with the A’s in 2020. That was a solid showing for Smith to carry into his first trip through the arb process, though he carried a career 6.57 ERA in 135 1/3 frames into the 2020 season. The A’s can control Smith through 2023.
  • The Rockies agreed to a one-year, $1.2MM deal with catcher Elias Diaz, per Nightengale (Twitter link). The contract contains another $300K in available incentives.  The 30-year-old looked like a clear non-tender candidate after posting an ugly .235/.288/.353 slash with lackluster framing marks and just a 1-for-8 effort in throwing out base thieves, but the Rockies must remain hopeful he can return to his 2018 level of performance. Diaz is controllable through the 2022 season via arbitration.
  • Right-hander Jacob Barnes and the Mets agreed to a one-year deal worth $750K, Nightengale tweets. Barnes, claimed off waivers back in October, was a quality reliever in Milwaukee from 2016-18 but has seen his results crater over the past two seasons. From 2019-20, he’s posted a 6.75 ERA over 50 2/3 innings. Barnes has averaged 10 strikeouts per nine frames in that time but also averaged 4.6 walks and 1.42 homers as well. Barnes is controllable through 2022.

What Should The A’s Do About Left Field?

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The Oakland A’s may look to offset the potential loss of left fielder Robbie Grossman with organizational depth. According to MLB.com’s Martín Gallegos, the A’s suspect 28-year-old Seth Brown could play an important role – but it’s now or never for the Oregon native. Brown’s combination of power and patience is a skill set the A’s have shown a fondness for over the years, and he played well during a 2019 call-up: .293/.361/.453 in 83 plate appearances.

From 2017 to 2019, Brown made the progressive leaps an organization likes to see as he jumped from High-A to Double-A to Triple-A in successive seasons. He earned his time on the big-league roster in 2019 after an impressive .297/.352/.634 line with 37 home runs in just 112 games at the highest level of the minors.

Grossman himself was somewhat of a late bloomer, cutting his teeth on unfortunate Astros squads of 2013 and 2014. He would be released by the Astros and then the Indians before finding a home in Minnesota. After three seasons of part-time work that culminated in a solid 1.7 bWAR season in 2018, the Twinkies cut him loose, too.

Hello, Oakland. Grossman’s 2020 output was easily the most productive season of his career, but those considering him in free agency must gauge whether his power display during the shortened 2020 season is the final step of his development or a small-sample burst. His .240 ISO this season far outpaced his career mark of .127 ISO.

All in all, Grossman’s skill set isn’t flashy, but that hasn’t stopped him from posting an above-average wRC+ in four of the last five seasons. If a market doesn’t develop for Grossman, the A’s could seek a reunion. Grossman and Brown both hit from the left side, of course, making for a ham-handed timeshare between the two.

Enter Chad Pinder, who could be in line for more regular playing time. Pinder has long been a short-side platoon utility player for the A’s, but his bat played up in a major way during their playoff run. Pinder was often penciled into the number three spot in the order while standing in for the injured Matt Chapman at the hot corner. Pinder could easily line up with Ramon Laureano and Mark Canha against lefties, but Stephen Piscotty should also be back in the lineup. The A’s could be intrigued by the possibility of more face time for the soon-to-be 29-year-old Pinder, but much of that time may have to come at second base, where Tony Kemp currently tops the depth chart.

All of which is to say, expect the A’s to slow-play the market this offseason and see where the value play lies. They’d like to explore the possibility of bringing back Tommy La Stella, who would expect a majority of the timeshare at the keystone. A long-time part-time player who almost retired many years ago when the Cubs sent him to Triple-A, La Stella is not likely to cherish a return to diminished responsibilities.

Add to the outfield mix ML-ready prospects Luis Barrera and Greg Deichmann – the latter of whom, Gallegos notes, was just added to the 40-man roster – and the A’s could head into 2021 as currently constituted with plenty of options to throw at the wall.

The real issue for the A’s is building a bridge between Marcus Semien and prospect Nick Allen at short. Allen’s defensive prowess is considerable, but the 5’8″ 22-year-old glove last appeared in High-A with a slash line of .292/.363/.434. Normal circumstances would dictate another year in the minors for Allen, but these days the development curve is more blueprint than model.

If Allen is close, Pinder could hold the line at short, but he’s totaled just 34 innings as the infield captain since 2017. Assuming they’re not ready to simply hand the keys to the car over to Allen, the A’s will focus their free agent energy (aka, dollars) on finding a short-term fix to keep the spot warm.

The A’s, like the Rays, are comfortable fielding a dynamic offensive lineup that shape-shifts as needed throughout the regular season. They’ll dole out playing time piecemeal until settling on the right mix. That could mean an increased share for Brown, but the A’s are sure to have ways to flex the roster if he’s unable to claim it.

AL West Notes: Rangers, Kiner-Falefa, A’s Camp Battles

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Before spring training shut down, the Rangers’ Isiah Kiner-Falefa made his presence known while vying for the 26th roster spot. Kiner-Falefa, 25 on Monday, put up big numbers this spring after ditching a high leg kick –  though his swing could use further simplification, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. Kiner-Falefa returned home to Hawaii for now, but when/if the season reboots, he’ll have a chance not only to crack the Rangers’ roster, but to play a significant role. Kiner-Falefa brings interesting upside to the Rangers’ roster because of his positional versatility. The past two seasons he has not only served as the Rangers’ backup catcher, appearing in 35 and 38 games behind the dish, respectively, but he’s also seen time at third base and in the middle infield. The bat has not been there over the course of his first two big-league seasons (.253/.315/.344, 71 wRC+), but given what they saw thus far in the spring, expectations are that Kiner-Falefa could push for additional playing time at third base where Todd Frazier is slated to sit first chair. Elsewhere out west…

  • The Oakland Athletics have a few positions still up in the air after truncated spring training, per MLB.com’s Martin Gallegos. Second base remains likely in the hands of favorites Franklin Barreto and Tony Kemp. Presumably, Kemp could protect Barreto against tough right-handers while getting his feet wet in the big leagues. Kemp’s value largely comes as a clubhouse presence and versatile offensive contributor, to use the term loosely, as he has struggled at the dish with a .233/.314/.367 career line. Kemp, 28, has yet to produce a slugging percentage over .400 for a full season, and it’s hard to imagine his power playing up in the Coliseum.
  • That said, Gallegos makes the argument that the more compelling battle was that of the two presumptive backups: Jorge Mateo and Vimael Machin. Mateo, 24, has more name recognition, and his speed and athleticism certainly make him worth watching. He’s out of options, and if he doesn’t make the team out of camp, Mateo is unlikely to make it through waivers given his bench-ready skillset. That’s extra incentive to keep him around, but they face the same issue with Machin, a Rule 5 pick from the Cubs. The A’s could try to work out a deal with Chicago to keep Machin, 26, in the organization. Otherwise, the roster crunch is real, as none of Mateo, Barreto, or Kemp have any options remaining. Chad Pinder is already entrenched as the primary utility option off the bench, leaving probably one spot max in the long-term for the runners-up in the battle for second base.

 

Camp Battles: Athletics’ Second Base Job

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The Athletics boast one of baseball’s best infield trios: third baseman Matt Chapman, shortstop Marcus Semien and first baseman Matt Olson are among the sport’s very best as their respective positions. It’s easy to argue that Oakland is 75 percent of the way to the best infield in the game — but it’s that remaining 25 percent that will be one of the key areas of focus for the organization this spring.

Oakland’s second base position is wide open, although that doesn’t mean that the club is short on candidates. Franklin Barreto, Jorge Mateo, Tony Kemp, Sheldon Neuse and Rule 5 pick Vimael Machin are among the candidates to join that all-world infield mix. If the Oakland organization isn’t content with the options already in house, they could look to a free-agent market that still includes veterans Brian Dozier, Scooter Gennett and Tim Beckham. The merits of further muddying an already crowded mix can be debated, but the A’s at least looked into Jason Kipnis before he signed with the Cubs, so perhaps a lefty bat like Gennett would be of some interest.

Complicating the matter for Oakland decision-makers is that four of the five incumbent possibilities are unable to be sent to the minors; each of Barreto, Mateo and Kemp is out of minor league options. Machin would have to be put on waivers and offered back to the Cubs upon clearing if he doesn’t win a spot on the roster. It’s a competition that’ll surely force the Athletics into some tough decisions, but that’s common this time of year.

Let’s take a look at the options…

  • Barreto: Brett Lawrie is out of baseball. Sean Nolin hasn’t pitched in the big leagues since 2015. Kendall Graveman? He’ll spent the 2020 season with the division-rival Mariners after being non-tendered two years ago following Tommy John surgery. Some might question what those names have to do with Barreto, but A’s fans know: he’s the last vestige of the franchise-altering trade that sent Josh Donaldson to Toronto in November 2014. Still not even 24 years old, Barreto ranked among the game’s top 100 prospects in four straight offseasons but has season his prospect/rookie status expire without establishing himself in the big leagues. He curbed some strikeout issues in Triple-A last year and posted a strong .295/.374/.552 slash in Triple-A. Manager Bob Melvin tells MLB.com’s Martin Gallegos that 2020 camp represents Barreto’s “best shot” to date with the organization. “[I]f he has the type of Spring that he has had before, it’s going to be tough not to have him be part of that dynamic, whether it’s a left-right dynamic or an everyday role,” says Melvin. Assistant hitting coach Eric Martins calls the job “absolutely [Mateo’s] to lose.”
  • Mateo: Another high-profile prospect at the time of acquisition (alongside Dustin Fowler and James Kaprielian in the trade that sent Sonny Gray to the Yankees), Mateo has yet to play in the Majors. He brings elite speed — 80-grade, on some reports — that can’t be matched by the rest of the participants in this competition. Mateo hit .289/.330/.504 in 566 Triple-A plate appearances last year — a slash that incredibly, by measure of wRC+ (96), ranked just below league average in the offensively supercharged Triple-A environment. He’s a shortstop by trade and has also played center field, so he could make the club as a super-utility option even if he doesn’t win the second base job.
  • Kemp: The newest entrant into the Oakland second base derby, Kemp was acquired just last month in a trade that sent minor league infielder Alfonso Rivas to the Cubs. The 28-year-old Kemp has played in 283 games in the big leagues, mostly with the Astros, and put together a .233/.314/.367 slash through 749 plate appearances. His left-handed bat could theoretically pair well with the right-handed bats of Barreto, Kemp or Neuse, although he hasn’t displayed particularly significant platoon splits. He’s a .312/.373/.425 hitter in parts of four Triple-A seasons and brings some defensive versatility to the mix as well; Kemp has logged 1152 Major League innings in the outfield — including 321 frames in center.
  • Neuse: The fact that Neuse has all three minor league option years remaining will surely work against him, but he’ll have the chance to outplay his out-of-options brethren in Oakland camp. Like everyone else on this list, the 25-year-old Neuse was originally part of another organization; he joined the A’s along with Jesus Luzardo and Blake Treinen in the trade that sent Ryan Madson and Sean Doolittle to the Nationals. The 2019 season was a big one for Neuse, who ripped through Triple-A pitching with a .317/.389/.550 slash en route to making his Major League debut. He’s still only totaled 61 plate appearances in the bigs, but the former second-round pick will surely add to that total in some capacity in 2020.
  • Machin: The 26-year-old Machin is — pardon the pun — an OBP machine who has walked nearly as often in his minor league career as he’s struck out (215 free passes to 258 punchouts). He’s fresh off a .295/.390/.412 slash between Double-A and Triple-A in 2019, and he’s hit at a .313/.345/.437 clip in winter ball this season. Machin has at least 650 plate appearances at all four infield positions but has spent the bulk of his minor league time at second base. His versatility, OBP skills and Rule 5 status could give him an opportunity to break camp as a utility option, and a strong early showing could net him larger looks as the season wears on.

Former Blue Jays and White Sox infielder Ryan Goins stands out as a notable non-roster option who’s in camp, although it’d certainly qualify as an upset if he beat out five 40-man players — including two out-of-options former top prospects who’ve yet to see an extended audition in the big leagues (Barreto, Mateo).

Regardless of the outcome, there’s some potential for a notable 40-man move or two here late in camp. It seems likeliest that the A’s will play things safe and keep both Barreto and Mateo on the roster, but they’ll be two of the more intriguing names to monitor on this year’s list of out-of-options players throughout Spring Training.

Athletics Acquire Tony Kemp

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2:20pm: The Athletics announced that Kemp has been acquired in exchange for minor league infielder Alfonso Rivas. Oakland’s 40-man roster is now up to 38 players.

1:55pm: The Athletics have acquired infielder/outfielder Tony Kemp in a trade with the Cubs, reports Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle (Twitter links). He’s just one name involved in a multiplayer trade, per Slusser.

Kemp, 28, appeared in 110 games between the Astros and Cubs in 2019, going from the former to the latter in exchange for catcher Martin Maldonado prior to the July 31 trade deadline. In 279 plate appearances, he mustered just a .212/.291/.380 slash with eight homers, nine doubles, four triples and four steals. Long one of Houston’s more intriguing prospects, Kemp has yet to find sustained success at the MLB level. He’ll give the A’s an option to insert into their second base and corner outfield mix, but he’s also out of minor league options, so he’ll need to break camp with the club out of Spring Training or else be moved to another club or designated for assignment.

The A’s have reportedly been on the hunt for some left-handed depth all winter, and Kemp will bring some southpaw-swinging versatility to their bench mix. He’s played all three outfield positions and second base in both the big leagues and in his minor league career. And although he hasn’t hit much in the Majors, Kemp is a lifetime .312/.373/.425 hitter in four Triple-A seasons.

Rivas, 23, was Oakland’s fourth-round pick as recently as 2018. He’s worked mostly as a first baseman but seen brief time in the outfield corners as well. The University of Arizona product has,to this point in his pro career, shown a strong knack for getting on base but minimal power, compiling a .290/.390/.411 slash through 800 professional plate appearances. He’s walked at a 13 percent clip against a 20.5 percent strikeout rate and briefly reached the Triple-A level in 2019 — albeit only in a six-game cameo after skipping over Double-A entirely. An assignment to Double-A with the Cubs to open the 2020 season seems likeliest.

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