Rich Hill will turn 42 years old next March, but the veteran southpaw told reporters last night that he “definitely” plans to pitch next season (Twitter link via Anthony DiComo of MLB.com). “The drive is still there and the ability is still there,” said Hill, who did not rule out a return to the Mets.
It’s hard to argue with the left-hander’s assessment. He’s not only wrapping up a 17th Major League season but is putting the finishing touches on a season that will see him shoulder his largest workload since way back in 2007. Hill has pitched in 32 games (31 starts) this season and racked up 158 2/3 innings of 3.86 ERA ball. He’s fanned 22.3 percent of his opponents against an 8.3 percent walk rate.
Hill isn’t inducing whiffs as often as he did with the Dodgers a few years ago, but he’s still inducing weak contact at rates well north of the league average. His 88.3 mph average exit velocity and 34.8 percent hard-hit rate are both strong marks, and those numbers actually improved following a midseason trade from the Rays to the Mets (87.2 mph exit velo, 32.3 percent hard-hit rate).
Pitching into his age-42 season would add another chapter to Hill’s remarkable comeback journey. The left-hander pitched just 75 2/3 innings in the Majors from 2010-14 and had become something of a journeyman reliever before parlaying a strong stint in indie ball into a dominant four-start run with the Red Sox late in 2015. Those four starts and 29 innings prompted the Athletics to sign Hill to a one-year, $6MM contract, and he continued his sudden dominance with the A’s before being traded to the Dodgers in a deal that netted Oakland right-hander Frankie Montas.
Hill spent the 2017-19 seasons in Los Angeles after signing a three-year, $48MM contract to return — a number that would’ve appeared unfathomable just a couple years prior. Even when he required elbow surgery in the 2019-20 offseason, he still drew plenty of interest and inked an incentive-laden, one-year deal with the Twins. He split the 2021 season between Tampa Bay and Queens, and he’ll now look to come back for an 18th big league campaign.
Since undergoing elbow surgery, Hill has seen his fastball velocity dip but has nevertheless remained effective. He’s pitched 197 1/3 innings dating back to Opening Day 2020 and logged a 3.69 ERA with a 22.2 percent strikeout rate, an 8.8 percent walk rate, a 36.2 percent ground-ball rate and 1.09 home runs per nine innings pitched. A team won’t sign Hill to be the ace of its staff, but he should have little difficulty finding another one-year deal to pitch in the middle of a rotation.
Still a worthy innings eater.
Yeah. Someone’s gotta sign him. He probably won’t make more than $5 Mill or so but the Braves gave “Big Fat Bartolo Colon” $12 million a year when he was 42 so u never know. BTW, Von. U like that sweep of the Phillies? I’m just messing with u. I know how much it hurts when ur team gets knocked off in the last week of the season. Phillies should be right back in it next season and will probably be even better. Harper had a great season, too. I expect Nola to be back to ace form in 2022.
I had no doubt in my mind that the Phillies were losing that series. It would be a crime if they made the playoffs although I was rooting for it obviously.
Why is big and fat in quotes? Is that the name everyone knows him by? I dont get it.
@cadagan: I put it in quotes because it was a name coined by ESPN writer Matthew Berry back when he still did baseball articles. He doesn’t do baseball anymore and always mostly focused on the fantasy aspect. He did a lot of podcasts on baseball a few years ago and that was the name he always called Colon. It was actually more of a compliment at the time than it sounded when I typed it. It probably just didn’t register with people because Berry hasn’t talked about baseball really for years. I probably overestimated the number of people that would know what that means. Anyway, at the time Berry was one of the most well known baseball writers and it was when Colon came back from half a decade of retirement throwing 97 mph again and started dominating. Berry was comfortable referring to him as that because Colon was always very open about his weight and Berry was pretty overweight himself at the time. It was more like, “OMG. Look how old, big and fat Bartolo Colon is and he’s still able to do this? That’s crazy! He just earned a $12 million a year contract an he’s so big and fat on top of being over 42 freaking years old! This guy is a legend!” kind of thing. Does no one else remember ESPN’s Matthew Berry always only referring to Colon as that? Maybe it’s just me.
He eats less and less innings these days. What’s the market for a 4 inning pitcher? I’m sure Tampa would give him another offer if his market fell to what they could afford.
I heard they have pitchers who only pitch a single inning at a time. 158 innings is a solid season, but even allowing for regression he would still provide someone value if he only pitched 115 or so
What’s the market for a 4 inning pitcher? I dunno but given there’s hardly anyone can pitch 200 quality innings anything over a 100 of quality has to be pretty valuable.
They ought to change the 3 batter rule to the 4 batter rule. This incentives teams to train the relief pitcher to pitch longer. In two seasons make it a 5 batter rule. Don’t give me the bs pitchers will get hurt crap either. If you haven’t noticed they’re getting hurt at record pace now. How they currently train them isn’t working so their opinions don’t matter.
There’s actually some logic to what iverbure is saying. The problem starts all the way down at the high school level now. You have starting pitchers in the majors right now who have literally never pitched even 7 innings in a game their entire lives. High school coaches are more concerned with getting as many players in games as possible than they are actually developing the super talented pitchers who might actually make it. They say it helps with injury but it’s also a disservice to a lot of them. They’re bodies haven’t adapted to it because they’ve never had to. The biggest injury concern is having freshman in highschool blowing their arms out throwing a ton of sliders and other breaking balls or trying to jack their torque up to increase velocity. According to Glavine it used to be almost only fastballs with the occasional change up. Less injury issues and you had to learn how to pitch through a whole game and maneuver a lineup. That’s how you would learn how to pitch with location and command. Then rest of the pitches were taught in college after you could already pitch a whole game. I don’t know if everyone really agrees with Glavine but he definitely complains about it often. There’s no denying that guys like him, Maddux, Smoltz, Unit, Schilling, and Pedro just to name a small few were a threat to pitch a complete game as soon as they reached the majors. A TON of 8 inning games as well. Only the closer was considered good enough to unseat them and that frequently went for 4 & 5 starters, too. That’s very rare these days. I can’t even believe Max Fried has 2 complete games this season. 20 years ago almost every starting pitcher was doing better than that and Iverbure is right about the fact the injuries still seemed FAR less common. I think Maddux went well over a decade straight with no DL stints or something like that. Now they are shutting goo pitchers down with no real injury other than “arm fatigue.” It sounds like they literally need a preschool nap. I think this is the way it’s gonna stay though unfortunately.
@iverbure: he pitched 5 or more innings in 22 of his 31 starts. If you look around the league, most teams only have one or two pitchers on their staff that have 22+ starts of 5+ innings. So, still has some value, provided he stays healthy again next year, which is a big issue with Hill.
If you do the math, you’ll find that he averaged about 5 innings per game.
I would imagine a decent portion of #5s and #6s do the same. He’s experience could be helpful to a young staff.
Funny, last month when i did the math it was 4+. I hadnt noticed his recent month of outings. Well done, old man Hill.
What do these innings taste like?
Mets should bring him back, he did a very nice job
His services will be in demand. He’ll likely have a handful of teams interested.
I agree. The Mets should sign Hill for 2022. Wouldn’t it be cool if he ended up starting the seventh game of the 2022 World Series? (Anyone over 40 should agree with that.)
Jamie Moyer started a WS game.
Jamie Moyer married Digger Phelps’ daughter years ago
My mom and Digger’s mom went to different high schools together.
My father and his father were Fathers
there’s a joke somewhere in that statement.
Jamie Moyer’s major league debut came in 1986. The opposing pitcher that day was Steve Carlton who debuted in 1965. That’s a crazy fact when you consider Moyer pitched until 2012. That’s a 47 year difference between the start of Carlton’s career and the end of Moyer’s career.
@rod: in this scenario, are the Mets in the World Series next year? I’d love it, but haha, no way.
I don’t expect the Mets to be in the 2022 World Series. But who knows? Compare the “expert” MLB predictions from last March to the way teams are finishing this weekend and you’ll see a quite a few discrepancies. No one predicted the Giants to finish first, or even make the post season, for example.
Speaking of predictions, I don’t take them seriously because most of those “experts” are just trying to sell ads, build their ratings, gain a following of supporters and haters, etc. With that in mind, they’re always going to offer up one pick/prediction that they already know is going to be a bad pick – because that’s the story that keeps on giving as the year moves on (clickbait). I personally feel that’s why so many NY writers always push the Mets when so many people see the team’s flaws – essentially treating the Mets as clickbait every year with those positive predictions that they know are not going to pan out. That story keeps giving to them all year long – year after year.
Would love him back on the Mets, but failing that, I hope he picks a team he’s never played for before. He’s played for over a third of the league so far.
I would say the Cubs should try to sign him, since he started his career in their organization, but he probably wants to play for a winning team that isn’t owned by cheapskates.
Still has that curveball too…love to watch that break
Cheap because they are going to have to rebuild? the players they traded were free agents at the end of the year and obliviously the Cubs felt they could not re-sign them. I am no Cubs fan but this take is not very bright.
Amazing to me the buffoons haven’t figured out this is how baseball works now. Most teams including the Cubs were very successful tanking and eventually winning in 2016. The simpletons don’t get that.
you are so much better than everyone….we are not worthy of your opinion…so I guess you can stop posting
Probably for the first part. You should have to pay for the second part and I’ll be what I want regarding your 3rd point. You can’t afford to not get educated by my brilliant baseball mind given your basic lack of understanding of current baseball.
“you can’t afford to not get educated” try not using a double negative in a sentence
Try not being a snarky dipsheet.
Had they not traded Darvish and spent a little more on a 2B like Wong, they might have been able to contend this year.
That’s how you get stuck in mediocre hell. In that scenario the Cubs either still miss the playoffs or fizzle in the playoffs and don’t trade any of the guys they traded and instead lose them for nothing in free agency
My only regret is that terrible return they got for yu
I’m not sure you can say with – such certainty – that they would have “fizzle(d) in the playoffs”, @jrtime.
Would they have been one of the favorites? Most likely not. However: “Anything can happen in the playoffs” isn’t merely a cliché. It’s an adage. Probably a truism. I struggle with the mentality that if you are not one of the preeminent contenders, then the playoffs are essentially some kind of waste of time or whatever.
In the end, Cubs did what they did.
So it’s nothing more than conjecture. But the makings of a postseason team were there.
Fair enough Fent, I should have thrown an IMO in there like I tend to
Roger that.
I was probably reacting more to what I’m seeing amongst a lot of Yankee fans. There is almost this attitude that a Wild Card birth is somehow unfitting or “beneath” us. & I guess I just don’t understand that completely.
Sure.
I’d rather we were the definitive AL favorite. But. We ain’t. However, you can’t win a championship if you don’t make the damn playoffs. Ya know? I’d rather be in & an underdog than have my baseball season end.
But – obviously – not everyone agrees with that.
I get it and tend to agree. My fear with the Cubs was them turning into the phillies of a decade ago, waiting way too long to start over and causing the rebuild to take twice as long
At the beginning of the year, their tax number was about $180 million before trading Darvish.
That should have gave them $30 million to play with and stay under the tax threshold.
Instead, they chose to cut, likely because Covid restrictions killed the investments Ricketts made in area surrounding Wrigley.
So the choices at the beginning of the year were to spend to the threshold or cut and hope.
It happens to every team for the most part. Let’s see what they do next year before assuming the worst of the team.
I think management/ownership was headed downward and was trying to avoid running the team like Jim hendry
Please Bloom, do NOT sign this man.
Relying on a 42-year-old with a long history of missing starts is a huge gamble not worth taking.
Thoughts and prayers that he signs with the Red Sox.
Ohhh … low blow. LOL
That’s funny…..
Hill just knows how to pitch. So many guys today are “throwers”…this man is a pitcher.
So does Bartolo Colon, you want him on your team now too?
Your comment is ridiculous.
Not as ridiculous as projecting a 42-year-old pitcher’s future value based on what he’s done in the past.
Prove me wrong, come up with a list of pitchers 42+ years old who have put up league-average or better numbers.
just a few off the top of my head that have had a positive WAR after 42 years old…
Nolan Ryan
Phil Neikro
Jamie Moyer
Mariano Rivera
Randy Johnson
Charlie Hough
David Wells
Gaylord Perry
Dennis Eckersley
Tommy John
Don Sutton
Tim Wakefield
Jim Kaat
Nolan Ryan, Jamie Moyer, Charlie Hough…just off the top of my head.
I wrote the same but for some reason its being held up ” awaiting moderation”
Fever – Every baseball player, for that matter every athlete, is valued based on their past performance.
Dottie, thanks for proving my point. LOL
Moyer whom I already mentioned as an anomaly, and two pitchers going back to early 90’s.
It’s a huge risk, I don’t see how any reasonable person can’t admit that.
roger clemens, randy johnson,most knuckleballers,mariano rivera, dennis eckersley,david wells,gregg maddux,- all had positive WAR at 42 yrs old. Plus Hill only has 1100 IP on his arm unlike most his age. I don’t think he’s asking for 3 yr deal at $30MM year..most likely 1yr at $8MM with maybe an option year. Which, IMO, is not a huge risk..a risk yes but not a huge risk.
Let us not forget the great Jeff Fassero and Terry Mulholland also had positive WAR at that age
everybody forgets the great Hoyt Wilhelm,who pitched into his late 40’s.
There are two differences here. One, he not only knows how to pitch, he has had recent success. And second, he is a lefty. Teams always want southpaws.
Incentive laden deal. Based on starts and innings. Low base salary. If he’s not effective then you just cut bait.
You don’t think Colon had recent success prior to dropping off the face of the earth? In 2016 he had a 3.43 ERA over 191+IP and the following year 6.48 ERA.
That’s what happens when you go past the 41 age mark, you lose it really fast within the next few years. Moyer was the anomaly.
All I’m saying is he’d be a risky signing for a contending team.
Why do you think TB traded him in the middle of a season in which they are contending? And look at the return they got for him.
Sorry, I trust the TB brass more than someone who simply admires the guy’s previous accomplishments.
I unironcially do
Interesting that at age 41, Hill has his most durable season based on starts and innings since 2007. He’s not as effective as he was a couple years or so back, but he’s taken the mound more consistently.
Could be a change in training philosophy. There’s really no reason that a person his age with the talent and drive to play can’t be successful these days with modern tech
Nothing to do with training. They call him Blister Boy for a reason, he spent a lot of time on the IL for blisters.
Hill tried everything to prevent the blisters. He drank a lot of apple cider vinegar, he tried laser therapy, and he urinated on his hand.
He was just a little pissed off
The Blister
No reason that Rich Hill can’t be Jamie Moyer 2.0. Teams were calling Big Sexy until he was like 45-46, and Hill is more effective than him at this stage. Hill might not be an ace or anything close, but he can give you 100-120 innings on staff that might be trying to puppy dog some guys along. Crazy thing about Hill is, I remember this dude coming up with the Cubs back in like 04-05, and that seems like a lifetime ago. My oldest daughter was born in 04 and she graduates this year. (cue Cats in the Cradle while I sob in my office)
Even hill knows the Mets should have made the playoffs. He called the group special
Speaking of “special”……..
Lol. Yes. It takes a special group of players to boo their own fans.
I also wonder if your love for these guys will carry over when they dismantle the core in the offseason. Will you still proclaim Conforto to be as good as Bryce Harper when Conforto isn’t in a Met uniform?
Conforto isn’t even as good as Conforto
You’re acting like the players that don’t come back won’t be replaced by better or about the same type of players. And Harper is clearly better I was wrong about that. But I said almost as good but slightly lower.
But it they replace them, how will they be special? I thought this group was magical.
Their defense, running ability and ability to drive in runs are special.
I feel that S-Money Cohen should sign them to what they demand. Bring that team back! $450 million payroll for that roster seems about right. I’m sure that all Marlins, Braves, Nats and Phillies fans will approve of that.
sounds like a perfect fit for the cardinals…
Random stat: Citi Field last night had a message on the scoreboard that said Rich Hill has made 51 straight starts allowing 4 runs or less which is the longest streak since 1901.
MB923 that’s actually a really impressive, under the radar stat. Dude won’t ever toss a shutout or anything, but he won’t get you blown up either. I hope he pitches a couple more seasons.
Roy- not impressive at all when you consider he pitches just 4 0r 5 innings a game. Weeping in your office? I bet you get exciting still when the mail comes everyday. Need more content from you Roy. Disappointing from you so far.
Pete, are you still mad about earlier? Look, I shouldn’t have said what I said about your dad. It was a low blow. As far as calling you a troll because of your stupid post, well I meant it, because you are. Now if you’re going to go hunting for my posts to throw your stupid comments out there every time, I implore you to find something better to do, or just use the mute. You just look bad.
There, I threw you a “like” so you don’t feel so bad. Have a good day Petey.
Roy- Man up. Say something, own it. Stop crying. You hung yourself out with that statement. Not hunting, I read all the articles and maybe half the posts. My comment today was about Rich Hill pitching 4 or 5 innings a start. Nothing to do with the Cub post yesterday. Now dry your eyes and wash your face and come and join the rest of us when you are ready. Also my friends and I have been going at it Sox Cubs for over 65 years. I don’t care if you are a Cub fan or not but my trolling shouldn’t bother you. It’s all in fun.
I “hung myself out” by being impressed by the stat the he posted??? Gotcha. Have a good one Peter.
That’s a really, really useless stat … especially now in the era of the “opener”.
Citi Field thinks 4 runs or less is good no matter how many innings? Seriously?
Some of Rich Hill’s 2021 starts:
4 Runs in 4 IP – Apr 3rd
4 Runs in 6 IP – Apr 9th
4 Runs in 4 1/3 IP – Apr 15th
4 Runs in 2 IP – Apr 20th
4 Runs in 4 2/3 IP – Jun 12th
4 Runs in 5 IP – Jun 17th
4 Runs in 6 IP – Jun 29th
4 Runs in 5 IP – Jul 31st
I’m waiting for the Mets to change the definition of Quality Start to minimum 5 IP and maximum 4 ER.
Good Angel pick up. The Angels have a ton of money to spend next year and very little in 2023. They really can’t afford a long term contract and older pitchers who have been good are not going to sign long term deals.
Halo – Hill would be an interested option. However, I see the Angels critics going crazy if we were to give him a chance.
i agree with 11. he’d be a ‘teacher’ to young staffs.
Exactly! Let the Pirates or D-Backs or Rangers sign him to an affordable contract, he won’t hurt any of their playoff chances if he suddenly loses it.
As fifth starters go Hill is not the worst a team could do but he definitely should not be signed to be a frontline starter.
Mets should resign him, even if hes ineffective next year as a starter, he can be a valuable lefty specialist out of the bullpen, its a shame that this team either blows all his starts or gets him 1 or 0 runs of support untill he exists the game and never gets a W
We’ll need to run that past Metsfan22 for approval.
Rumors are he has a FO spot sewed up along with Nick Nolte & Mel Gibson
Rich Hill should pitch until he’s 50
Look out Jamie Moyer, somebody is gaining on you!
Odds of Hill returning to Citi Mound in 2022: 3-1
Dick Mountain to the Angels!
If he hurt his back would he be “Broke Back” Mountain?…
Only player left in the league that is older than me.
Keep pitching Rich so I can feel young!
It’s sad when you remember watching players in their rookie seasons and now you are watching their children.
Baseball can certainly make one feel old in the moment
Rsox, or grandchildren, though I was only 2 when Carl Yastrzemski was a rookie.
Dunk, does this mean I can say that you’re even older than Nelson Cruz?
I used to take comfort in the fact that, when I was nearing 40, the best player in the game was six months older than me. Then, we all found out why. He’s not getting into the Hall of Fame any time soon.
He is the living definition of a 5th starter- you don’t expect much but you gladly accept consistency
Exactly. The mistake teams make is signing guys like Hill as their fifth starter and thinking the rotation set. In today’s you need at least seven guys who can be reliable rotation options, if not more. That’s where Hill’s value comes in. He might not give you 30 or even 20 starts. But whatever he gives you will be of value. Hill is also a savvy baseball guy. When his playing career is over, I see him staying in the game, and not necessarily as a coach. He would be fantastic in some team’s front office.
I think 7 reliable guys is overkill. I can’t think of 4 teams who have 7 reliable starters. I mean it’d be a nice luxury, but I don’t think that’s the norm. Strategically I agree with you, but I don’t think it’s common.
The Dodgers have typically had seven reliable starters every year since 2017. In 2018, there was a team early in the season when Kershaw, Ryu, Maeda, and Hill were all on the IL at the same time. Fortunately, they had Wood, Stripling, and a rookie named Buehler to fill the void. Wood and Stripling wound up being all-stars that year.
This year, they lead MLB in ERA despite losing May and Bauer for the season and Kershaw and Gonsolin for extended stretches. Not common, but if you want to contend, a surplus of starters isn’t a bad thing unless a team is okay with numerous bullpen games (which even the Dodgers have needed).
Right, but the Dodgers have the luxury of homegrown talent and a ton of money. Most teams don’t have that.
If Pujols comes back for another year, that will make 5 active players (Pujols, Hill, Wainwright, Cruz, and Molina) who will be in their 40s for at least part of next season. When’s the last time that happened?
Pujols has been a west-coast guy for a while now. It’s more likely that he returns to the Dodgers. He seems to be having a blast and his teammates clearly love him.
So, when Syndergaard came back the other day and was dialing it up at 96+, all of the kids that are currently up in MLB that heard about how hard he threw looked and said, “I thought he threw hard. I throw harder than that. I throw 100 MPH.”