One of the biggest decisions for the Cardinals this winter is how to handle the shortstop position. That hasn’t been the case in a while. Paul DeJong had a great rookie season in 2017, and he’s been the Cards’ Opening Day shortstop for each of the four seasons since.
Going into 2022, it no longer seems to be DeJong’s job. That rookie season was propped up by a .349 batting average on balls in play that DeJong never seemed likely to sustain, but he was a solid hitter over the next couple years. Coupled with high-end defensive metrics, he was still a highly valuable player. DeJong’s bat has taken another step down over the last two years, though, and that seemingly puts his future with the organization in question.
Since the start of 2020, DeJong has tallied 576 plate appearances, nearly the equivalent of a typical season. He’s hit just .213/.295/.378, a mark that makes him fourteen percentage points below the league average by measure of wRC+. DeJong still brings some power upside, popping 22 home runs with a .165 ISO (slugging minus batting average) that’s right around average. He has struck out in an elevated 26.6% of his trips to the plate, though. Paired with a very low .254 BABIP, that has led DeJong to post one of the lower batting averages and on-base marks among regular players.
DeJong is still generally effective at barreling balls up, but he’s also had far too many wasted plate appearances. He’s an extreme fly ball hitter, which can be a bit of a double-edged sword. Hitting the ball in the air gives a player plenty of opportunities to do damage, but weakly hit fly balls aren’t especially useful. DeJong has had his share of softly hit balls in the air, with a 90.9 MPH average exit velocity on air balls that ranks in the 42nd percentile leaguewide (minimum 1000 pitches seen). That middle-of-the-road batted ball quality has come as DeJong’s contact rate has dropped a few percentage points over the past two seasons, falling from roughly league average to a bit below.
While DeJong hasn’t been an especially productive hitter in recent seasons, he hasn’t been without value. Defensive metrics have still pegged him as a solid or better defender. Over the past two seasons, DeJong has rated as six runs above average at shortstop by DRS, while Statcast has him at two plays above average. Even average play at shortstop is valuable, and DeJong’s probably at least a tick above par defensively.
Because of that defensive acumen, DeJong has been valued at around two wins above replacement since the start of 2020 by both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference. That’s roughly league average for the amount he has played. So even with his bat going backwards, DeJong’s still a capable player who is just two years removed from an All-Star berth. He’d be an upgrade over some teams’ current shortstop situations.
Speculatively speaking, the Yankees, Phillies, Nationals, Angels, Rangers, A’s, Astros, Tigers and Twins are among the teams who might be in the shortstop market this winter. With a star-studded crop of free agent shortstops, DeJong won’t be priority number one for any of those clubs. They can’t all land high-end free agent options, though, and some could view DeJong as a reasonable fallback option.
In March 2018, DeJong and the Cardinals agreed on a contract extension, the guaranteed portion of which runs through 2023. He’ll make $6MM next season and $9MM the following year, and he’s guaranteed at least a $2MM buyout on a 2024 club option valued at $12.5MM. The contract also contains another club option covering 2025. Given DeJong’s offensive struggles the past couple seasons, that deal no longer looks like a massive bargain. But it’s certainly not an outlandish detriment to a team’s finances either, and the two options give a potential acquiring team some upside if DeJong manages to turn things around at the dish.
That all leads to an interesting offseason decision for the St. Louis front office. DeJong’s 2022 salary isn’t outlandish, but they might want to look into the top shortstops available themselves. Alternatively, they could trade DeJong and rely on the player who became the de facto shortstop down the stretch this past season: Edmundo Sosa.
Sosa has long been viewed by public prospect evaluators as a future glove-first utilityman. He outperformed those expectations as a rookie, though, hitting .271/.346/.389 with six homers in 326 plate appearances. Sosa didn’t walk or hit for much power, but his aggressive approach helped keep his strikeouts low as well.
Turning shortstop over to Sosa based on half a season’s worth of work would be a risk, but he did enough down the stretch to seemingly surpass DeJong on the organizational depth chart. It’d be defensible to give Sosa a chance to seize the job, particularly given this regime’s solid track record in developing position players who overperform their general prospect expectations.
How to handle the shortstop position going into 2022 is a key question for president of baseball operations John Mozeliak, GM Mike Girsch and the rest of the front office. That’s unfamiliar territory in St. Louis, but DeJong’s recent drop-off at the dish makes it possible he could wind up on the move in the coming months.
Can someone count up the number of times the last name DeJong was in this article my god.
That’s probably because the article is about DeJong
Yes but you can use words like “he”… instead of his last name every other sentence
25 if you count the title
Maybe he could have used a few “the Cardinal,” “the shortstop” “the former All-star.”
Are they allowed to use “he”? I think the term is “non-lactater”.
“the Cardinal”, “the shortstop” and “the former all-star”. But, then I’d get confused. Is he talking about ‘Stan Musial’, ‘Mark Belanger’ or ‘Van Mungo’.
Im sorry you have low intelligence dennyd. I guess he made sure to dumb it down just for you.
Yankees, Astros, Nationals, Cleveland and Reds DeJong is available. The Cards are likely to sign a top shortstop. At the trade deadline the Card tried to acquire Trevor Story. Story might be playing in St Louis soon/ next season.
Cardinals are following the Yankees playbook – patch holes by overpaying for name players.
Never works.
Doubtful the cost will be high and as I read the story, I thought of the Yankees. You don’t need HOFers at every position and if their stars are consistent (in a positive way), DeJong provides good dee and an occasional big time hit. Sort of like Arroyo at second this past year for Boston.
That hasn’t been the Yankee way for over a decade now. Fans like you need to stop living in the past. That’s the Dodger and Phillie way now.
Cleveland has absolutely no need for a SS. Their farm system is loaded with middle infielders. No need for a disappointing DeJong.
Story didn’t hit much better than DeJong this past season. If they want to count on a bounce back year like that, they’d be better off just keeping DeJong and see if he can win his job back from Sosa.
As for one of the top shortstops on the market, that’s very unlikely seeing as they have Sosa as a fallback option. The money they have available would be better spent on a starting pitcher and multiple relievers.
Story had no one protecting him in the lineup. He’s a .270 hitter with 30 homers and 70-100 rbi capabilities. Even if he hits .250 consistently he’s a massive step up from DeSucks. Better defender and can steal bags which is something we need.
Several good starting pitchers and several good BP arms. We have Reyes who has a record of being weak under pressure, Hicks who may never return because his serious diabetes complicates every injury he ever has and we resigned T.J. who may be our best option as a closer. In the rotation we are looking at many holes. Mikolas hasn’t lasted long in any of the past 2-3 years, Waino has had one good season in the past 6 due to injuries and he’s entering his age 41 season. How one good season justifies a 10 MM raise is strange but then again we gave Carp a big extension after 4 poor years.
Francys: Any idea, from your perspective, of what it takes to acquire DeJong in a trade? He still rates at $4m on BTV.
Andujar and Frazier
Yankee Clipper- Probably, one or two minor leaguers prospects coming back to the Cardinals and also we need to eat some money in order to make the trade. I would say that the players that we get from the trade could be 3-4 years close to the majors. By trading DeJong now the Cards would not acquire great talent, but maybe a B or C plus prospects.
Likely? If DeJong is traded, the Cardinals are “likely” to stick with Edman and Sosa at short with Gorman and Edman at second base. If he isn’t traded, it’s “likely” they won’t sign any middle infielders unless it’s a left-handed DH-type like Brad Miller.
Eatonculo – or Oaklands Olson who is available with 39 bombs last season …and he’s LH which the Cards need. Their only LH hitters are Carlson and Edman who are both switch hitters. They would need to sound out Olson over shifting to SS or 2B because he won’t be replacing ‘gold glove’ Goldy.
Story wasn’t all that great in 2021, but I’ll chalk that up as an aberration for now. Biggest minus for signing Story is there’s a history of ex-Rox whose stats fall way off the table after leaving Coors.
If a name FA SS is the way the Cards choose to go, I like Seager way more than Story. Doubt they would trade him, but I’d ask LA about Gavin Lux’s availability. If they re-sign Seager and Chris Taylor, there might not be any room in the inn for Lux.
Seager is a FA.
Storey demands more than the Cards are willing to shell out, especially for a 35 year old RH hitter. The team needs a LH power hitter at SS (Seager) but they won’t pay what he wants either. The most likely outcome is Nolan Gorman gets a chance at 2B and Tommy Edman takes over at SS leaving Sosa as our utility infielder. The team probably ends up not having that great streak and unless the owner changes his normal operating policy and doesn’t buy 2 or 3 quality arms we end up winning about 82 games in 2022. Maybe not even that many as Marmol is a significant step down from Shildt. But Moz wanted a yes man and that’s what he got.
24 but I might have counted one twice lol
Too bad the article didn’t also mention Chase De Jong.
i wouldn’t trade him until late spring training or first of season. see if he perks up
Perks up to what? The player he was five years ago? I think he is what he is. No reason to be wondering about his expectations.
Even the player he was in 2019 would be a huge improvement. It’s not that unlikely he could turn it around at least that much.
Sosa’s obp is propped up by insane # of hit by pitches. He isn’t bad, but he probably isn’t a starting shortstop in MLB. He does play with a fire. He sure seemed like he played tight in the play-in game with a few bobbles.
Even if he just posts an average OBP, combining that with his excellent defense would still make for a decent starting shortstop for many teams.
girsch is a man with a gm title only.
Why are the Reds never in the market for a SS? I feel like that’s their top need. Or maybe CF and the obvious: Relievers.
Did you watch Kyle Farmer this season? He was one of their best hitters in August and September. Sure he doesn’t have the hype or the prospect pedigree, but Farmer was a pretty good starting shortstop last year.
A 32 year old who is a sub 2 WAR player in his best season ever is not too inspiring. He broke out this season offensively and was still a below average hitter.
Reds have that kid who changed his last name just about ready to be their SS for the next ten years. Sorry, forget his new name (Berrios or something like that?)..
Yes, and he will be a good utility player that is versatile. He shouldn’t be the everyday shortstop.
Because the Reds have José Barrero as their future SS. He’s not quite ready for the majors yet, hence Kyle Farmer.
Another unnecessary early Cardinals extension that hasn’t worked out. Shocker.
Terrible FO…….
So they killed the messenger.
Most of them do work out. For example, Goldschmidt’s extension has worked out very well so far. The jury is still out on DeJong and Mikolas, so the only recent notable misses on extensions have been Matt Carpenter and Carlos Martinez.
There was the case with Allen Craig several years ago, but they were luckily able to dump that contract on the Red Sox and even get over a year of quality pitching from John Lackey in return. In Craig’s case, his career was ruined by a fluke knee injury, anyway.
Mozeliak has wasted $100’s of million’s of dollars, (by not being able to judge talent — good or bad). The players he’s traded off or released, who are playing on other teams have become League Champions in HR’s, stolen bases, Average, and top 5 in the majors in the rbi department.
Mozeliak—- all by himself —- put the Cardinals in Financial stress over 4 years because of poor contract extensions & “Over The Hill” Free Agents.
The Money He’s wasted would have been plenty to acquire a Super Star pitcher over the next 3 years such as Scherzer.
Mozeliak has promised Marmol the Moon. However will repeat itself. Mozeliak will hang Marmol out to dry.
Mozeliak will do as he always has done. He’ll never acquire the players who are needed to become a Championship team.
I’m not a fan of Moz but you’re putting the blame in the wrong place. He can’t spend DeWitts money if he’s not willing to let him despite how obvious the teams needs are. For instance, we knew last spring training our rotation was in very poor shape with no depth. Apparently DeWitt and Moz thought Mikolas and Martinez would come back healthy and effective despite not being so the previous 2-3 years. Then we lost Flaherty for much of the second half. If not for a totally shocking resurgence by Waino we wouldn’t have been nearly as good in that great stretch run. CMart is gone and Waino is entering his age 41 season. There’s not much reason to expect much from Mikolas after 3 down years. If we don’t get some good arms for the rotation and our BP we are not going to do as well as we did in 2021.
Sign Seager, Simeon or Story… then we can ditch Pauly D for a salary move and allow Sosa to fill in.
Lol
Are you just yourcommentlol
Then why sign a top SS if the plan is Sosa?
He said to allow Sosa to fill in. As in, from the bench
Could get someone to pick up his contract. Not much more than that, especially given the SS market. Maybe one of the teams losing a guy who aren’t expecting to compete could grab him to fill in for a while, like the Rockies.
That’s actually a good landing spot for Dejong. Throw in a prospect or two also, so the Rockies eat his whole salary
are you in Pittsburghs front office? you talk like they operate. “he’s making 6 dollars, we have to dump him” the Cardinal’s aren’t going to throw in 2 prospects to give away a 2 WAR player. he’s not going to bring back a ton after a down year, but he’s not a contract you have to sell the farm to get rid of. the cards are not the pirates.
Lol
Good grief, he’s practically the second coming of Pete Kozma!
Good fit for Detroit. Will come cheaply in trade.
Yuck.
The A’s should sign him – I’m sorry, but Elvis needs to be DFA’d
Exactly what I was thinking! Change might do this guy good?
I’m a Cards fan and have watched him a lot. I still like DeJong. He’s smart too so I have confidence he can fix his flaws. Injuries really got him this year and possibly last. Although last was a strange year that’s hard to count. He’s not far removed from being an All Star. Plus he’s young. Definitely a change of scenery candidate if moved.
He came back from injury in early June and still spent the rest of the season floundering at the plate.
Meanwhile, it’s no secret that he was only an All-Star due to the requirement that every team needs a representative, as the Cardinals clearly had no worthy players in the 1st half of 2019 (despite going on to win the division that year)..
Brandonb. — I felt the same about Carp. I just knew for sure that such a smart batter could learn to hit away from the shift but after 6 years I realized he’s never going to learn. The team blew it big time with that 3 year 54MM extension. Carp wasn’t worth that much in his best years and there were only two of those! I did like him because he was always a good team player willing to play hurt and not complain.
It’s incredible to me that Elvis has more games starting SS than any other active player, I believe. He’s a senior now!
Gorman will play 2B next season so Edmond will play SS. Sosa will be insurance if Gorman stumbles. I’m sure the Cardinals would love to trade DeJong if they get the right offer. It was nice having a power hitting SS but Gorman will supply the power from 2B.
Gorman isn’t likely to be ready until at least mid-season, but it’s not a bad idea to use Edman and Sosa as placeholders until then.
Mid-season? They might screw with his service time for a few weeks but there is no way they wait until mid-season to promote Gorman. The Cardinals need a left-handed power bat in their lineup. Gorman costs them nothing.
A guy like Sosa could get seriously exposed as a flawed player with an everyday gig. Some guys are better suited for short stints off the bench. Also, I’m not reading a whole lot into Sosa’s 2019 numbers at Memphis. That was the year the baseball was juiced at AAA.
You have a 2 War SS with some pop who is a great defender at a key position and not making big cheese. And Cardinal fans wanna dump him? You are truly spoiled.
RH bat with a sub .200 BA. Cashman will be all over him.
I’m a DeJong fan, but reading the article at certain points it seems like the IF Joey Gallo. Cashman has wood right now.
This made me laugh Clipper. Then it made me worry because it’s probably true.
Joe: I really wouldn’t be surprised if he did go for DeJong. Again, I’m a fan of his, but that would speak volumes about Cashman’s continued proclivity for the all-or-nothing lineup. If so, it’ll be a long season again.
DeJong could* fit, if the do up CF correctly and fix C. We are really within three good roster changes of going deep into the postseason and having a real shot at winning it all.
It is concerning that RSox still consider the team in the building phase because of how well they did. We cannot be stagnant and must improve the roster. Lateral changes in talent are not going to advance the team.
Kinda, @Clipper.
The comp is actually not invalid: excellent defensive player with power but a low BA. However, he can be a kiel for our infield – which is begging for some stability – while hitting 20-30 jacks. I have no problem with what he brings. Hit him out of the bottom third & fix leadoff via CF.
He is a perfectly competent MLB shortstop.
He fits our timeline to some degree as well if you really believe in Volpe &/or Peraza.
You guys watching the Giants?
Ducky, no question he improves our IF. Looking at his stats, even this year, he’s no worse than what we’ve been putting out there, only he can play defense at a valuable position. Plus, at the bottom of the order, say 8 for argument sake, he may get more pitches that he can launch.
Yep, watching the Giants.
He does fit Cashman’s love affair with RH power bats, uh? But. Cash has been starting to pay attention to defense. Well…he did at the deadline anyway. So DeJong may actually be his new fancy.
Better than it was, Clip.
If he is batting any higher than 6/7, that may not be – ya know – what you want. He kind of seems like a RH DiDi to me. Which I can certainly live with.
I’d just rather do something like DeJong or Galvis at SS & put money into Rizzo & Marte as the lineup’s remodel.
Lord. The Giants. That was…terrible, man.
Angels seem like a decent fit. They shouldn’t really go after one of the top SS unless Arte really opens the books. Cheap, good defense, hope for a bounce back offensively
Sosa OBP has been just as low till this year. We come a long way where a SS who hits 30 hrs gets replaced by one who won’t walk.
Sosa is still developing. DeJong is already past that point.
It doesn’t matter if Sosa doesn’t walk much if he can still post a good batting average and high OBP despite that alongside his excellent defense.
You do realize that Sosa is almost 26 years old and Dejong just turned 28 with 5 years of starting SS in the MLB? After his wild card game against the Dodgers I think Sosa needs a lot more development. DeJong to the angels!
Dejong to Astros
Baez mets
Taylor Dodgers
Semien Blue Jay’s
That leaves Correa, Story and Seager to be fought over. Teams in the running? Phillies, yankees, padres, Angel’s, tigers cards. These teams have a need and the money to get the top shortstops.
Seager yankees
Correa padres
Story phillies
The Padres are not signing a SS this winter. Tatis Jr. has stated that he does not want to move to the OF. And even if he did, they have CJ Abrams, the #6 overall prospect in MLB. He excelled in AA this year and is almost ready.
LOL
I still breastfeed and the Muppets won the real Stanley cup!!!
Makes sense for the Angels, really. Let’s say a meh prospect for DeJong and $5 million. That keeps the Halos out of the SS frenzy and allows the team to spend on pitching.
I had not considered the Angels, Halo, but you’re right. I initially thought they may go after a big acquisition, but he would certainly be a fit for them given their other needs. You believe they will go after Gausman or Ray?
Not sure which arms they pursue but I’d rather have them than a stud SS and no arms.
I’d love the dependable Stroman, personally.
I think it’s pretty simple. We have a lot of money off the books go sign a sick shortstop, shore up the bullpen, then find a starter like John Lester.
Step aside Mo Joe is here as GM
Can’t see DeJong for the Yankees. I know a lot of Yankee fans who I respect thing he would work, but according to the article he’s only a slightly above average defensive and his offense is well below average. You can get away with 1 maybe 2 players that are offensively challenged but they need to defensive whizzes not slightly above average. They may also need to use their ninth spot in the order for a gold glove caliber catcher. At this stage, the team probably isn’t deep enough offensively to acquire more than one player that is not an offensive threat. Of course that could change if the team were to acquire more offensively minded players like Eddie Rosario (trade Gallo or move him to centerfield) and Anthony Rizzo.
But fly balls in a tiny ballpark have a better chance at leaving. And the rest of the East is pretty HR friendly, too.
Mickey, they say slightly above, but it really depends on the metric they’re using. OOA, he’s well above at +6, and Cards fans have given some great reviews for his defense. Given Gleyber was -10 OOA, DeJong’s +6 would be very impactful.
I believe Torres’ lack of defense is why Urshela wasn’t as good this year. He had to try to cover more ground because Gleyber couldn’t.
Interesting thanks for the perspective. You and Ducky are the Yankee fans that I meant when I wrote, “Yankee fans that I respect.” The Yankee off season is like a giant puzzle, depending on the other pieces they acquire DeJong could be a fit.
I think they are underselling him a bit, @Mick.
He was the 10th best defensive SS in MLB last year. He’s in the next grouping below “elite”. & I am looking at two career numbers offensively; .753 OPS & .453 slugging.
Like I posted above, he’s basically a RH Didi Gregorius. Which I can live with.
Would take a right handed Didi in a minute!!! Not sure he’s as good as Didi offensively.
Should be a highly interesting off season.
Right? As would I.
Didi is on my forever-cool-with-me list
According to Savant, he is a significantly better fielder than Gregorius was for us. He definitely K’s more (I know, I know) than did Didi, but – due to his power – has been a more productive bat (sounding familiar? I swear this isn’t Cash’s burner account). Albeit in an uglier fashion. These are stats that can certainly be debated. But I think it’s a solid comp.
To be clear; I am certainly not saying “trade for DeJong & print the World Series tickets” or whatever. But as part of a series of moves (personal fav: Rizzo + Marte+ DeJong) he could certainly be part of a pennant winning club.
Tim Anderson for DeJong straight up!lol jk
If they move DeJong it’s to give the SS to Sosa. In no world do philosophical differences equate to the front office telling the manager they plan to be aggressive in the free agent market and bring in high end talent to which the manager says, nah I’m good.
If the Cards decide to move on from DeJong, they will find no shortage of suitors among the teams who can not afford any of the top FA shortstops on the market. Twenty-five to thirty homers- depending upon his home park- at $6 million is a bargain. for a SS with his experience who is just 28-years old. He’d be a nice fit for the Tigers, D-Backs, Orioles, Rox or Twins. Plus, if that old adage is true: “If you can play SS you can play anywhere.”, teams looking of a 2B or 3B could also be interested.
I’m not a Cardinals fan, although I do admire how they are always competitive, but after looking at some of Moz’s moves, I question how the guy keeps his job. Being competitive is nice, but I suspect DeWitt is looking for more than that.