J.D. Martinez has declined to exercise the opt-out provision in his contract and will therefore remain with the Red Sox for 2022, as reported by Jon Heyman of MLB Network. His original five-year deal with the club prior to the 2018 season contained three opt-outs: after the second, third and fourth years of the deal. Martinez has now declined to opt out for a third consecutive year and will play out the final season of the contract on a salary of $19.35MM.
This was a decision that really could have gone either way, as Martinez himself admitted in September that he was “right in the middle” about it. On the one hand, Martinez bounced back from an awful showing in the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign with a solid performance in 2021. His slash line this year was .286/.349/.518, good enough for a wRC+ 128 and 2.9 fWAR. There is also the fact that a universal DH is widely expected to be implemented for next year, which would open up the slugger’s market considerably, since he’s primarily a DH and only suited to occasional outfield duty. (He played 148 games this season but only took the field in 38 of them.)
But on the other hand, the Collective Bargaining Agreement is expiring December 1st, creating an offseason with a high degree of uncertainty and the potential for a labour stoppage or transaction freeze. Furthermore, if Martinez opted out of his $19.35MM guarantee, he would certainly be offered an $18.4MM qualifying offer by the Red Sox, meaning the 34-year-old would be wading into that uncertain market with draft pick forfeiture attached to him, thus dampening his earning potential.
Martinez will now stick around Boston for one more year as the Red Sox try to repeat their surprising 92-win campaign that carried them all the way to the ALCS. He figures to be the regular DH and occasionally manning the field to give a breather to regulars Enrique Hernandez, Hunter Renfroe and Alex Verdugo. If he has another strong year at the plate, he would certainly be a candidate to receive a qualifying offer a year from now, assuming that system survives the upcoming CBA negotiations in tact.
Smart
Agreed
Steve kept saying in his chats that JD will definitely opt out, and I kept disagreeing. I knew for certain he wouldn’t opt out. You don’t opt out coming off what was (for him) a bad season, especially when you’re already lined up to make $20M in a place that you know and like.
JD will put up big numbers next year, and parlay that into a really good multi-year contract.
Can someone explain why he wouldn’t opt out, then take the QO so that he wouldn’t have it attached next season? Isn’t the 935k hit worth being unencumbered next year? Or is it possible the union is gonna right to get rid of the QO in the next CBA?
gawd – I don’t think too many players would give up a mill just to use up the QO, especially without being able to predict the future.
Who knows, if Cora mismanages the team out of contention by next July then JD would likely be traded and wouldn’t have the QO attached to him after the season.
@oh my gawd Evidently, he places a greater value on the $935k than not having the draft pick attached next year. Or maybe he is banking on the QO system being done away with in the next CBA.
I would bet the QO gets eliminated for older players in the next CBA.
@oh my gawd Very intriguing point. Some guys simply cannot think ahead in that manner.
Hugely unlikely. He hasn’t been an elite hitter since 2018, when he was 30 years old. In 2023 he’ll be 35. He’s not going back to the monster he once was.
JackStrawb – True but his drop off is gradual and his 80-100 R, 80-100 RBIs and his 25 – 35 HRs with a .280 or better average and a .350 OBP is still better than just about all hitters in baseball except maybe 20 or 25 at most. Put him in the heart of a good line-up and only DH him and he won’t have the stress of playing the field which is a big source of risk for him and he should thrive for several more years..
If he was a MONSTER in 2018 then in 2022 he’s more of a monster. Still better than almost everyone but not as great as he was.
I can’t believe people thought he was going to opt out.
Exactly! What were they thinking? It’s not like he just had a .975 OPS season.
Even excluding last year, his numbers have still declined every year since 2018.
He got his current contract coming off a 1.066 OPS career year.
So why would anyone think he’d opt out seeking more years at or above his current AAV after putting up just a .867 OPS? Not to mention he’s 4 years older now.
FPG – Bashing JD again? I hate when you do that. I want you to put him in perspective and stop with the silly OPS drop off crap. He should bat 3rd but got forced to hit 5th. That lowers his production but he still produced more runs than almost everyone in baseball. I hope you are familiar with the stat Runs Produced. RP = R + RBI – HR. A well accepted way to monitor productivity.
The final 2021 numbers are below:
1 Vladimir Guerrero 186
2 Ozzie Albies . 179
3 Jose Ramirez 178
4 Juan Soto 177
5 Rafael Devers 176
6 Teoscar Hernandez 176
7 Matt Olson 173
8 Jose Abreu 173
9 Marcus Semien 172
10 Freddie Freeman 172
11 Mitch Haniger 171
12 Manny Machado 170
13 Paul Goldschmidt 170
14 Carlos Correa 170
15 Jose Altuve 169
16 Austin Riley 165
17 Yordan Alvarez 163
18 J.D. Martinez 163
18th best overall at producing runs and second only to Devers!!
Yes, he’s not the 2018 JD but he’s still got it and worth every penny.
The final 2018 numbers are below:
1 J.D. Martinez 198
2 Christian Yelich 192
3 Francisco Lindor 183
4 Javier Baez 178
5 Mookie Betts 177
6 Alex Bregman 177
7 Nolan Arenado 176
8 Jose Ramirez 176
9 Andrew Benintendi 174
10 Khris Davis 173
11 Bryce Harper 169
12 Freddie Freeman 169
So 2021 saw 25 less Runs Produced by JD dropping him from 1st to 18th. Be fair, he’s still an outstanding hitter who deserves $20M, especially if the idiot manager bats him 3rd and ONLY DHs him except in inter=league games.
ALSO, please note that the SLUG (sarcasm) Benintendi who got shipped out two years later had the 9th most RPs in 2018!!! Yes, JD was 1st in 2018, Mookie was 5th and Benny was 9th!! Bogaerts was 27th. Devers was 125th!!!
Devers climbing to 5th from 125th is outstanding. BTW did I mention that Bogaerts who hit 4th most of the year finished 20 places behind JD at 38th in 2021!!!
Now you can see why you want run producers near the top of the order. 2018 had Mookie 5th, Benny 9th and JD 1st which led to the most prolific offense in baseball.
If Cora could ever figure out how to set a line-up I think they could score significantly more runs like in 2018.
Not sure it would’ve benefited him to opt out.
I’m guessing him and his agent are looking at the 2023 offseason and expecting there to be less elite RH hitters. Right now he has to compete with Castellanos and Bryant who are younger and can conceivable play an everyday position.
I agree
Plus there will be no ??? about CBA/DH.
He’s also older. Obviously I have no inside info but I think either he gets traded before spring training (if the new CBA includes an NL DH) or the team and Borax work out a two to three year extension. Not Boras’ M.O. but the world has changed since DD and he worked out the original deal.
Not only that but they will obviously know if the NL has a DH. If there is a salary floor/ceiling. What the luxury tax threshold is. All of those things are speculative right now so why not take the guaranteed money?
Good chance he has a second straight strong season to further dispell any thoughts that his 2020 was a new performance floor
On one hand, it seems like JD is happy in Boston and probably wouldn’t have gotten a higher AAV on the market, but the more I thought about it, the more I leaned towards him opting out and hunting for a multi-year contract. Not shocking, but somewhat surprising
im not terribly shocked. its a lot of money to walk away from and BOS isnt a bad place to lock yourself into.
Biggest factor I’d think is the CBA and a lockout/transaction freeze. It’s nice to have that paycheck locked down, and, as a dh guy it really shouldn’t hurt his market much to wait one extra year from an age perspective. Perhaps the NL gets a full time dh opening more jobs? Who knows..
So the last shoe to drop today would be whether E-Rod is issued a QO? I’m guessing they’re working on a new contract right up to the deadline–still might not agree on terms. And–out comes the crystal ball–JD will be traded.
The only reason to even try to trade J.D. would be if the knew for certain they were re-signing Schwarber. They would be left with a major hole to fill by trading Martinez first and then trying to sign Schwarber and taking the chance he signs elsewhere
They would have 19.35 M to fill the hole
Very few players can give the offense that Martinez can. Schwarber is one, Castellanos may be the only other player available in free agency that can give you what J.D. can. And you won’t get all of J.D.’s money to spend because there is no way the Sox trade him without kicking in a part of his salary.
Agreed, but I’m happy either way if JD stays or we trade him, as long as the void is filled. I personally would love to sign Schwarber and trade JD but there is no guarantee
Can somebody give reasons why they want JD gone now, or why they think the Red Sox want him gone? What has he done or not done, other than put up good but not great numbers this season?
It almost seems like Schwarber is the shiny new toy, and JD is the old toy that kids got bored with.
There is no reason why the Red Sox can’t have both Kyle in LF and JD at DH for next season. It’s not like the Red Sox can’t afford both.
I don’t understand either why people are on the trade him bandwagon. He is a valuable part of the lineup
Most teams prefer not to have a full time DH. They value the empty spot to rotate players through the DH spot to keep them fresh.
That’s why this notion the NL adding a DH is going to be great for all these Bat only players. Most NL teams aren’t going to add some useless guy in the field for a big money.
Great. Now work out an extension. Don’t let trade rumors ruin 22 before it starts.
No, now they need to shop him..
Might depend on the CBA and the DH in the NL. That said, he’s more important than many realize. He brought plate discipline to Boston. In my view, he was the 18 MVP. To me, he and Xman are the leaders. Devers is an animal at the plate but still learning. When JDM retires, he’s a batting coach for sure.
Dewey – You are 100% correct. JD has helped several of his Red Sox teammates improve their hitting. He is masterful at studying replays and picking up things with opposing pitchers that others can’t pick up.
JD deserves one more chance to put up big numbers again next season.
Smart man.
Hit the open market next year when it’s not so flooded with talent and there’s no worry about the CBA and income returns to normal post Covid
@rangers92 If he was in fact a ‘smart man’ he’d opt out, take the QO, and more than make up the 935k difference during the 2022-23 offseason.
Awesome! Now REALLY make my day with a fair long term extension for Eduardo!
Yes. Do this, Red Sox
Key word “fair”
I guess labor uncertainty trumps the shot at a bigger contract. But as a primary DH, at his age he is going to end up working the rest of his career on short term contracts.
Nelson Cruz has had a pretty good career as a DH on short term deals
Cruz is an exception. Most hitters his age couldn’t hit the blind side of a barn.
citizen – Crus is definitely not the exception.
Ever heard of a guy named David Ortiz?
2011 – One year club option
2012 – One year contract
2013-2014 Two year contract
2015 – One year extension
2016 – One year club option
2017 – One year club option
It’s simply smart business to go 1-2 years at a time once a player reaches 35 or so.
Surprised since he put up good numbers last year and NL is probably adding DH
“probably” being the key word. He’ll make almost 20M to play another year where he’s comfortable with a good shot at competing for a ring in BOS, possibly padding his numbers for a future contract when there’s a clarity next offseason and possibly an expanded market of all 30 MLB teams adding the DH, with a CBA DH-inclusion.
Usually you sacrifice some dollars for convenience, but he’s not sacrificed all that much for that peace of mind, if any. Smart man.
He sucked in 2020 and 2021 was a good not great year. He wasn’t going to get anymore than 20m. Dude is trending downward.
Almost all guys are going to “trend downward” when they have 6.8 oWAR (2018) season, especially when going through a 2020 condensed season where they affected his approach and took away his ability to analyze his AB in-game, which was restored in 2021. Hide his glove from him (via DH) and you’ve gained another 1 WAR. Pretty great gun-for-hire with the ageless Nelson Cruz possibly, finally, maybe aging.
A “Qualifying Offer” is just that, an offer. There is NO assurance nor is there a requirement the “Offer” woul be accepted.
I’m mildly surprised as well. DH is most likely coming to the NL and it will up his value. I thought he would opt out especially with Boras as his agent.
Now we will find out about Eddie. My guess is Boston gives him a QO if he doesn’t sign an extension. A buddy of mine who is a Tigers fan says the Tigers are looking for Eddie in 3/45 range. I would be happy if the Red Sox signed Eddie to that contract.
@Bruin We can assume a NL DH but that doesn’t necessarily mean that Martinez’ AAV will go up with so many new job openings. NL teams may rather employ 1B- or defensively-challenged -types and take a wait-and-see approach to examine the NL’s new offensive environment.
I have no doubt that JD’s value goes up if the NL adopts the DH in fact all DH only types value would go up.
“Probably”, “Likely”, “Possibly” are words that lead to the same answer: uncertainty.
Until it is agreed upon, ratified, and written in stone the NL does not have a DH. We went through this at the start of last winter when the league finally told teams to conduct business like there was not going to be a DH in the NL this past season. Same rules apply. Its the same logic as Dodger fans spending the money owed to Trevor Bauer even though until further notice that money is still owed to Bauer
I think E-Rod will get an Eovaldi type of offer (4/64). Only question is, will Boston be the team to offer this to him? I think the Red Sox like him but they are frustrated by his lack of progress too.
I doubt it. Unless you are an upper echelon pitcher like Robbie Ray, you are not getting a big number ( and more importantly) more then a three year contract.
One could argue Rodriguez has at least a comparable track record to Ray. Both have had periods of inconsistency throughout their careers.
I think the Eovaldi deal to Eduardo could end up being a big bargain. I also think it’s pretty likely to take more than that.
No comparison. Ray is way better with his strikeout rate.
I don’t think he gets that much
Say what you think about Scott Boras but he rarely misreads the market. I bet he advised Martinez not to opt out because of the strong possibility of a lockout or strike. For the same reason my gut tells me Boras client Conforto takes the $18m and waits until next year.
I’m also assuming the Red Sox are picking up the option on Vasquez.
If I was Boston I would. Especially because Vasquez would be a target for the Yankees to replace Sanchez
There just aren’t many good catchers on the free agent or really any. I don’t think they really have a choice. I’m guessing they are working on a contract extension and that’s why we haven’t heard Boston exercising the option.
Bruin – I agree if the Sox were to let Vasquez go, the Yankees and probably a few other teams would be all over him. As you point out the catcher market is very thin. With Zunino and Barnhart gone it’s even thinner. This is the era of the SS definitely not the catcher!
I
I could see JDM in a season long winning situation in Boston or traded into one just like Schwarber was.
The hitters for 2022 are pretty much set:
C- Vaz &; Pla
1b/3b Devers, Dalbec, Casas
2b/ss/Cf Arroyo, Bogey, Kike, Duran
RF/LF Renfro, Verdugo /JD
I could see them bringing back Iglesias & Shaw and leaving Duran & Casas at AAA until the AS break or IL need.
Wouldn’t it have made more sense for JD to opt out, accept the QO, play 2022 for 1M less, and then be able to enter the next offseason without the hindrance of being attached to draft pick compensation?
It would if Martinez and Boras knew 100% Boston actually would give the QO. But because of possibility of them declining it, better to take the sure thing.
If JD had opted out, why would the Sox NOT have extended him a QO?
Agreed. If I were the Red Sox, I’d give JD a qualifying offer. Especially with his 3.0 WAR and still close to his prime.
Perhaps not. At 34 he projects to little more than 2 rWAR. If they have better use for that money and better use of the DH slot, it’s easy to see them not offer JD the QO.
@NY_Yankee The QO is for less money than JD would have left on the table if he opted out. If he opted out the Red Sox 100% extend the QO.
@addict: that’s exactly what I was thinking. He should have burned the QO. It’s only $1M difference, and the upside going into 2023 would have made up for it.
@bhambrave A significent issue with that, though, is whether JDM puts up a 2022 sufficient to warrant offering him $18.4m at age 35 to dh in 2023. He probably won’t. He doesn’t project for much more than 2 WAR in 2022, and you don’t offer that player a QO.
What if the QO doesn’t stick around ?
Then no harm done, other than $1M.
Interesting. I wonder if the Red Sox would have preferred he left.
There is speculation the QO system will be eliminated, so that will benefit Martinez a year on if that happens. He’ll also know for sure if the NL has adopted the DH, greatly increasing his landing options. Last, he’s locked in a nice salary for 2022 and avoids being a free agent during what’s shaping up to be a nasty labor fight this offseason. The Red Sox could also trade JD, but the market for one year of a high-priced DH will be quite limited. They’d also have to plan for his exit in a year when they want to compete.
Perhaps of greater interest. He’s advised by Scott Boras, who reads the market as well as anyone. I mentioned this elsewhere to Mets fans convinced Conforto will not accept the QO because Boras is his agent. Boras clients have accepted QO’s. Boras also popularized the one-year, make-good, pillow contract. That’s what a QO can be, and that’s what an “opt in” can be in the final year of a contract. Conforto’s situation is different. He’s younger and not highly paid, but he’s also coming off his worst year and there is that labor issue. Wouldn’t shock me if Boras advised Conforto to take it, and live to make even bigger money another day.
Of course the Red Sox would have preferred he left. That is how opt-out clauses work. The player does the opposite of what the team wants them to do.
goat – That’s not true at all. You’re assuming player decisions are based strictly on their performance, but really there could be a myriad of reasons. Market conditions, the number of similar free agents competing for a job, the player and his family like or don’t like the area, the player wants or doesn’t want to make a position change, etc.
Market conditions, similar FA and position changes affect teams as much as FA,
Generally speaking:
=Low Market – Player won’t want to move, team will want him to move, vise versa for high market
=Crowded Market – Player wont want to move, etc
Goats premise isn’t exact, but it is much more true than “not true at all”.
lordd99 – The Red Sox didn’t want JD to opt out because that would put pressure on them to move Devers off 3B. As long as there is a legitimate DH then nobody talks about the 24 to 48 misplays by Devers each year.
Since they are throwing away money on guys like E-Rod there is really no reason to trade JD to gain cap room until they are out of it at the trade deadline next year. At that point, they can clear some salary for 2023 when the new GM arrives.
I think JD is secretly hoping the Universal DH happens in 2022 and no later than 2023 and he gets traded to Bloom’s good buddy in LA. That reunites him with his hitting coach and Mookie.
The NL DH may improve his number of landing options, but it doesn’t necessarily improve his salary prospects. With typical decline he projects to about 1.8 WAR in 2023 as a DH. That there might be an additional 15 slots in the NL doesn’t mean he’s got any guarantee to get anything like $18.4m. The NL does indeed have a whole lot of farm boys who can’t field but can hit as well or better than that for $600k.
19.35 mill for a 34 year old DH. It was a smart decision for him not to opt out. At this point, even if he’s great in the box, he’s most likely looking at 1 year deals, with a club, or 1 year player options anyways. A team desperately need of a DH, could’ve offered maybe 3 years? And that’s the best case scenario. At probably max somewhere north of 30 million for the full contract.
He gets near 20 million for a year, to do nothing but be a DH. This was another no brainer imo. And is able to hit the market again next year.
Possible trade deadline chips for Bloom; Kike, JDM, Bogey, Vazquez, ERod, Eovaldi, MMmwah Ha Ha Haaaa
And thus ends the short Schwarber era in Boston. At least the hot stove talk will be for who they can acquire.
Goose – You know what they say about making assumptions.
Well this sucks. I think that Kyle Schwarber is the perfect fit for them long term as the DH and he’s significantly younger. Best case scenario was JD actually opting out. Probably would have had to pay Kyle less than 19 million per year as well.
Kind of a curious position on a player that most of the time, hitting wise……its either out of the park or he’s back on the bench…..JD is much more the polished hitter who fits perfectly in the Sox lineup……age in this case also doesn’t factor nearly as much as your think……
Did you not see his stat line after he joined the Red Sox? The guy was an on base machine. I get it was a small sample size, but this guy can absolutely rake in a Red Sox uniform. Besides, if I had to bet on either him or JD being the more productive player next year then I’d bet on Kyle since JD is getting in the danger zone in terms of age.
Chemo – I like Kyle, but he put up a .107/.194/.250 during his final 7 games when we needed him most. That’s not exactly the best way to make a case for a huge contract.
It is possible that his struggles at 1B affected his hitting, if so that’s on Cora.
Schwarber had a fluke season and even then peaked at 3.1 rWAR. Project him without rose-colored glasses and he’s a 2 win player who can’t field. That’s not a valuable ballplayer, though at something like 2/16m you’d surely prefer him to JD at close to 20m by AAV.
Why couldn’t Schwarber spend all of the offseason focused on becoming the a first baseman? I think he can handle 1B. Just needs repetition.
I was referring more to the Red Sox likely unwilling to pay both JD and Kyle the money it would take now that JD has opted in
Baseball is far, far more difficult than we think it is. If he can’t play 1B by age 28, it’s unlikely he can play 1B at all well. Put another way, he’d be 20, 30, 40m more valuable for his career if he was able to play an adequate 1B—so… why can’t he?
Might seem crazy but for him I thought it would’ve been smartest of him to opt out but then accept the qualifying offer. I know that seems backwards since it would’ve lost him a little under a million, but then he wouldn’t have to worry about the QO in the next off-season. I can’t imagine that system will be completely gone next year but I could but wrong on that.
@halcyion He’s unlikely to be worth a QO after 2022 and he probably knows that. Plus as you note it has to be in the CBA as well. Players almost universally take guaranteed money.
Project ordinary decline and he’s worth less than 2 WAR for 2023. You and I might choose to effectively ‘buy’ the possibility of a QO the year after next, but it’s surely not a 50-50 bet as of today.
@JackStrawb, I could be wrong but I think you’re missing @halycyion’s point. If JD had opted out this offseason and accepted the QO that the Sox would surely have offered him, then the Sox would NOT be allowed to extend him a QO after 2022. Therefore, JD could secure a more favorable deal for 2023 and beyond since a team would not have to sacrafice a draft pick to sign him. And all JD would have to do to achieve this is play for 1M less in 2022. Does the CBA of it all change this scenario?
Definitely possible but athletes also bet on themselves constantly, and we’ve seen time and time again guys get a QO and get way more uncertainty that following year. The decline is definitely possible but that’s generally more accurate with position players, JD as a primary DH and and incredibly intelligent hitter could be productive well into his late 30s. Maybe he won’t get another high value multi-year contract, but this could still have an impact on his options come his pending free agency.
Was just food for thought though. Maybe he has an awful year and doesn’t get a big contract or maybe he has a monster year and does and renders the QO a moot point.
A lot of unknown this off-season though with the CBA implications.
Fully agree with you.
Quite shocking. He’s worth more than 1 year, $19.35MM on today’s market. Personally I would rather try for a long term contract, even if it is with a slightly lower annual salary. But $19.35MM is still good money.
@bradbluefish He really isn’t worth 1/$19.35m as a 34 yo DH. He’s no longer remotely elite, and there’s a cost to having a dedicated DH. With age-related decline factored in he’s barely a 2 win player next season. No one pays 19m for that—not voluntarily, anyway.
Let’s keep in mind he was worse than replacement level in 2020. Using the last 3 seasons JD projects to just 1.25 rWAR for next season. Even doing him the enormous favor of including his 2018, his best year by far, and he only projects to 2.0 WAR, rounding up. That’s not a $19.35m player.
He’s still a good hitter, and I am not heartbroken that he is staying, but he’s past the tipping point. He had a good .867 OPS, but that was primarily due to a .421 BABIP and a 33.3% HR/FB. Neither are likely to be repeated. My under/over for his OPS is .830. Good, but not worth the salary.
I think it’s the right move. If he’s remotely decent next year, the Red Sox will give him the QO and he may actually accept it as it’ll probably be close to $20M or above $20M, which would be acceptable to him. Or, he’s back to his ideal form at the plate, etc. and knows he can parlay the 2022 performance into a 2-4 year deal for $15-20M per season and so he didn’t really lose money by not opting out. Either way, he isn’t losing money by not opting out, he’s just restructuring how he gets that money.