The Marlins sprinted through much of their offseason dealings in the week prior to the MLB lockout, making their biggest free-agent signing under the Bruce Sherman/Derek Jeter ownership group, swinging a pair of trades and extending their top arm. What’s left when the transaction freeze lifts?
Guaranteed Contracts
- Sandy Alcantara, RHP: $56MM through 2026 (including $2MM buyout of $21MM club option in 2027)
- Avisail Garcia, OF: $53MM through 2025 (including $5MM buyout of $12MM club option for 2026)
- Miguel Rojas, SS: $10MM through 2023
- Anthony Bass, RHP: $4MM through 2022 (including $1MM buyout of $3MM club option for 2023)
- $3MM owed annually to Yankees, through 2027, as part of Giancarlo Stanton trade
- Total 2022 salary commitments: $26.5MM
- Total long-term commitments: $142MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Jesus Aguilar – $7.4MM
- Richard Bleier – $2.5MM
- Joey Wendle — $4MM
- Garrett Cooper – $3.0MM
- Dylan Floro – $2.4MM
- Brian Anderson – $4.5MM
- Jacob Stallings — $2.6MM
- Elieser Hernandez – $1.4MM
- Pablo Lopez – $2.5MM
- Jon Berti – $1.2MM
Miami’s four-year, $53MM contract with Avisail Garcia crossed one of the team’s top items off the wishlist, adding a power-hitting corner outfielder to a lineup that ranked 28th in the Majors in home runs this past season. The four-year term was a surprisingly big bet on a player who does most of his damage against left-handed pitching and has, in two of the past seasons, seen his end-of-year results at the plate clock in well below average. Garcia has hit well in the other three of those five campaigns, and the cumulative result is a solid .278/.335/.464 slash (113 wRC+).
Joining him as newcomers in the lineup will be former Rays infielder Joey Wendle and former Pirates catcher Jacob Stallings. Neither will add much in the way of pop, but Wendle gives the Fish a true super utility option who’s posted a .271/.326/.425 slash over his past 685 plate appearances. Wendle can handle any of second base, shortstop or third base quite well, and the Marlins could give him some outfield reps as well. He’ll be in the lineup more often than not, even if he won’t have a set everyday position.
Stallings, meanwhile, gives the Marlins one of the best defensive backstops in the game and a high-end framer to work with their young pitching staff. He’s hit .246/.333/.371 across the past two seasons and will serve as a major upgrade, on both sides of the ball, over the since-traded Jorge Alfaro (dealt to the Padres on Dec. 1).
Acquiring three new bats obviously represents a pretty sizable chunk of the Marlins’ offseason lifting, but they’re not done shopping just yet. General manager Kim Ng has already made clear that she hopes to add another outfielder to the bunch. Center field is still somewhat up in the air, though Ng said after signing Garcia that the Marlins believe he can play center if needed. If Miami is truly comfortable with Garcia in center, that’d open the possibility of the Marlins pursuing another corner-outfield option, although playing Garcia in center seems suboptimal from a defensive standpoint. Miami has been tied to Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber and Eddie Rosario, but Castellanos and Schwarber are likely beyond their price range.
Adding another corner option and playing Garcia in center would be something of a surprise, but the free-agent market lacks a true, everyday option in center at this point. There are some center fielders available (e.g. Kevin Pillar, Jake Marisnick, Albert Almora Jr.), but none who profile as everyday options offensively. Meanwhile, there are plenty of corner bats who have some experience in center (e.g. Rosario, Joc Pederson), but none who’d profile as a regular in center from a defensive perspective.
If there’s one corner outfielder in particular who makes sense in Miami, it’s perhaps NPB star Seiya Suzuki, whose posting window will resume once the transaction freeze lifts. A star with Japan’s Hiroshima Carp, Suzuki will sign with a big league team in advance of his age-27 season. For a team that’s looking to continue improving but won’t be a division favorite in 2022, Suzuki is an ideal add. He’ll still be in his prime several years down the road, perhaps when Miami’s prospect core has further bolstered the MLB roster. There’s risk in signing a star player who is yet untested against MLB pitching, but that uncertainty also helps to tamp down the price point. Since 2018, Suzuki has batted .319/.435/.592 slash line with 121 home runs, 115 doubles and four triples in 2179 plate appearances. He just won his fifth NPB Gold Glove in right field this past season. If Miami is truly comfortable with Garcia in center, Suzuki becomes a much more interesting name to ponder.
However, the most straightforward path for the Marlins finish off their outfield would be to add a center fielder via the trade market, though the few available options would be tough to pry from their current teams. The Orioles and Pirates will at least listen to offers for Cedric Mullins and Bryan Reynolds, for instance, but both players are controlled four more years and would come with through-the-roof asking prices. It’s a similar story with Arizona’s Ketel Marte, who’s guaranteed $8MM in 2022 before the team has a $10MM club option for 2023 and a $12MM club option for 2024. He’s a bit more expensive and has one fewer year of control, but Marte is the most established player of that trio.
The Marlins do have a wealth of young pitching and managed to acquire Wendle and Stallings without dealing from their very best young arms, but any of Mullins, Marte or Reynolds would require parting with several young talents, likely headlined by a pair of legitimate top prospects.
There could be other, less-talked-about options to pursue. Oakland’s Ramon Laureano will miss the first month-plus of the season while finishing out an 80-game PED ban, but that could perhaps drop the price on him a bit. He’s controlled another three seasons. Kevin Kiermaier will surely be available once again, and while he wouldn’t provide the offense the Fish are hoping to add, he’d follow the Stallings mold in providing one of the most notable defensive upgrades possible.
Speculating further, Miami could try to effectively purchase a prospect or two by bailing the Yankees out of the remainder of their Aaron Hicks deal — they’ve certainly acquired plenty of other former Yankees. Or, perhaps they could go in the other direction and buy low on a former top prospect like Seattle’s Taylor Trammell, who has yet to establish himself and may already be squeezed out of the long-term outlook with the Mariners. There’s a match to be made between the pitching-rich Marlins and the Twins, too, if Miami is comfortable playing Max Kepler in center field regularly.
Whatever route the Marlins go in the outfield, they’ll surely want to keep some playing time free for 24-year-old Jesus Sanchez, who hit 14 home runs in just 251 plate appearances as a rookie this past season. Sanchez’s 31.1% strikeout rate will need to come down, but he slashed .251/.319/.489 (116 wRC+), securing himself a lengthier look moving forward. Also in line for a larger look is 25-year-old Bryan De La Cruz, who hit .296/.356/.427 (albeit with a rather fortunate .380 average on balls in play) after coming over from the Astros in the Yimi Garcia trade. Former top prospect Monte Harrison is out of minor league options and could soon be out of opportunities if and when Miami adds another outfielder, given the options in line ahead of him.
That’s a lot of focus on one outfield spot for Miami, but that’s due largely to the fact that the lineup is otherwise mostly set. Stallings is locked in at catcher, and the Marlins have Jesus Aguilar (first base), Jazz Chisholm (second base), Miguel Rojas (shortstop) and Brian Anderson (third base) rounding out the infield. The aforementioned Wendle and fellow infielder/outfielder Jon Berti provide backup all around the field, while underrated slugger Garrett Cooper and prospect Lewin Diaz provide backups at first base.
In the event the DH is added to the National League, Aguilar could spend more time there in deference to the defensively superior Diaz. If Diaz needs more time in Triple-A, the Marlins could simply let Aguilar and Cooper share first base/DH duties. There’s perhaps room for another addition here to deepen the lineup, but don’t expect the Marlins to break the bank and sign Castellanos, Schwarber or another bat of that magnitude.
In the rotation, the Marlins are largely set, unless they want to bring in a veteran on a minor league deal just for additional depth purposes. Sandy Alcantara, who signed a five-year, $56MM extension that set a record for pitchers with between three and four years of MLB service time, will anchor the staff after ranking fourth in the Majors with 205 2/3 innings pitched this past season. He’ll be followed by breakout lefty Trevor Rogers, who notched a 2.64 ERA through 25 starts as a rookie in 2021. Righties Pablo Lopez and Elieser Hernandez have spots largely assured, health permitting. Lefty Jesus Luzardo may have the inside edge on the fifth spot, but flamethrowing top prospects Sixto Sanchez and Edward Cabrera will get their opportunities in 2022 as well.
Even beyond that top seven, the Marlins have enviable depth. Nick Neidert, Braxton Garrett, Cody Poteet, Paul Campbell and Daniel Castano are all on the 40-man roster and all have some big league time under their belts already. The Fish also still have 2020 No. 3 overall pick Max Meyer rising through the ranks. Fellow top prospect Jake Eder will miss 2022 due to Tommy John surgery but is highly touted in his own regard. Right-hander Eury Perez elevated his profile with a huge 2021 season in A-ball, and lefty Dax Fulton is also well-regarded.
Some of those arms — particularly those already on the 40-man — could end up in the bullpen, which is the other area the Marlins could look to upgrade. Dylan Floro, Anthony Bender, Anthony Bass and Richard Bleier are all locks for the ’pen. Lefty Steven Okert may have earned a 2022 spot as well. Still, there’s no shortage of relief arms available on the market — and the Marlins have spent on some veteran arms at the back of the relief corps in recent offseasons. Sergio Romo, Brandon Kintzler and Bass were all signed as free agents. It’s doubtful Miami would spend at the top of the remaining market (i.e. Kenley Jansen), but another modest one- or two-year deal for an underappreciated veteran seems plenty possible.
Whenever offseason activity finally resumes, the Marlins will still have some work to do — even if they’re not as active as they were in the days leading up to the shutdown. Look for Miami to cast a wide net as they seek one final outfield piece, and don’t be surprised if teams come calling on some of their starting pitchers, given that arguably unrivaled level of depth.
The NL East features the reigning World Series champs, the reigning NL MVP (Bryce Harper) and perhaps the most aggressive owner in the sport right now (the Mets’ Steve Cohen), making it a tough time for the Marlins to be looking to turn the corner. They’ll face a tough road, but with another savvy addition or two and some strides from the young arms on the roster, a playoff push in 2022 isn’t completely out of the question.
If they could only talk Glen Perkins out of retirement.
Poor Perk. had his career ended when the Twins pitched him with a tear in his shoulder labrum… and it got worse of course… leading to major surgery… and the end of his pitching career… He didn’t look good the 1st game back from the All Star game… and some of us knew he needed help right then and there.. .. but the Twins opted for their normal rehab and play… just like they have done for so many injuries… Like playing Sayno with a broken leg.. it was obvious.. but they didn’t care… so he ended up with surgery and titanium implants..
Oh, man. The Marlins still owe Stanton $18 million to not even play for them but they are still considered to be in a much better position than the Yankees on that deal… even though the Yankees actually have him on their roster. Those are signs of a truly terrible contract if I’ve ever seen one.
Stanton really is made of glass. For a moment there I thought he wanted to be Jacoby Elsbury, the Yankee years.
The future is bright in Miami.
lmao, people have been saying this for over a decade with nothing to show for it.
Yes but I think they’ve done a great job of adding pieces that will raise their floor as a team, with the teams upside hinging on the development of their young talent
@rct
It could be worse. The Mets have been predicting championships for over three decades with nothing to show for it.
Elieser Hernandez could be traded to a pitching needing team to free up the pitching logjam that is starting to occur. But giving his injury history his return wouldn’t be as good as say Pablo Lopez or one of their near ready prospects.
I can hardly wait for the Twin Post Lock-out shopping list… It likely contains a whole lot of nothing but PR statements about competing… aka ticket selling..
Unless the Yankees are intent on staying below the CBT, they won’t move Hicks plus prospects just to clear salary. They still need a CF regardless, and Gardner isn’t it. They are better off overpaying Hick, assuming he can get back on the field
The Yankees could sign Pillar or Marisnick to backup Hicks. Not sexy choices, but they would be cheap 4th outfielder types who could play center and bat 9th when Hicks gets hurt.
Regardless of the CBT, the Yankees would be thrilled to get Hicks off the books. They have had enough of him and his constant injuries. Unless the Marlins ask NY to cover some of his remaining salary obligations (4 years left @ $10M/yr), they should be able to get Hicks for a very light package of prospects. (1) player in their top 15-25 prospects along with a lottery ticket.
Gallo could fill in for Hicks in CF along with a cheaper, 4th OF like Pillar. They could also look into acquiring KK from the Rays. The Rays will take pennies back on the dollar for KK given his $14M salary, but I’m not sure if they’d be willing to trade him to a division rival.
It would be somewhat comical if the Yankees do decide to move Hicks and he has a career year with a team like the Marlins. In addition to his injury history, Hicks has never really looked comfortable playing in big-market New York. He could very well thrive in Miami or in another small market elsewhere. I’m just not sure that Miami would be willing to take on the full $40M remaining on his deal.
Not a chance Miami has to give up a top 30 prospect for Hicks. Just as the article points out, the Marlins would most likely receive a 15-25 prospect or two FROM the Yankees for taking on the deal and they’d still have to eat a small portion of the contract. Miami would give a flier in return.
Lol Yankee fans. Almost as dumb a lolmets fans
@Mjm117, Dorothy_Mantooth is most definitely not a Yankees fan.
Trade for Trammell and sign free agent Roman Quinn as a backup.
The Marlins have terrific Young starting pitching depth and corner OF’s to spare. The Marlins could certainly be players in the trade market
The Marlins seem like a good match for the Red Sox, who could use some young, cost controlled pitching. Pablo Lopez to Boston for a package centered around Jarren Duran (who has 6 years of team control) seems like a fit for both sides. As a Sox fan, you hate to see Duran go. But Sale/Lopez/Evaoldi at the top of that rotation would be dangerous
I would hate to see Duran go too as he is really Boston’s only legitimate OF prospect ready for MLB over the next 1-2 seasons. But I do agree that adding Lopez to Boston’s rotation would be great, especially with Eovaldi’s deal set to expire at the end of 2022. Boston does have some intriguing pitchers almost ready for the majors (Bello, Seabold & Mata-post TJS), but none of them seem to have a true, #2 potential like Lopez does. It is a very tempting deal to consider for both sides.
I doubt Marlins give up Lopez for Duran. A true #2 SP for a 25 yr old OF who wet the bed in his first call up?
Duraba power and speed is promising but not for Lopez. Elieser would make more sense
Duran**
I wasn’t suggesting a straight up deal. I said a package centered around Duran. And face it, the Marlins have an endless stream of high upside, front rotation arms. No bats. I’m sure getting 6 years of Duran as opposed to having to pay escalating arbitration raises to Lopez before letting him walk in free agency (because with everyone in the pipeline they are going to extend him) has a certain appeal to Miami.
Marlins can do much better than Duran for Lopez.
I would just run the OF with De La Cruz, Harrison, Sanchez, use Garcia as the 4th OF/DH and sign a SS like Trevor Story. If they want an OF, I would go after Rosario or Soler/or both…..but no we’re near Castellanos or Schwarber. They definitely need an INF to pair up with Jazz Jr.
1.De La Cruz CF
2.Jazz Jr. 2B
3.Story SS
4.Soler DH (He’s Cuban, He’ll love Miami).
5.Rosario LF
6.Sánchez/García RF
7.Aguilar 1B
8.Anderson 3B
9.Stallings C
Wendle, Rojas Util/INF/OF.
1.Alcantara
2.Rogers
3.Sánchez
4.López
5.Hernández/Luzardo
This team, can take a huge step if they sign those 3 and guys stay healthy!
Story is definitely not happening. Financially of course, but also the amount of SS in the system right now. They are all about two years away so they have Rojas and Chisholm until then. The money that Story would get is better spent on real areas of need.
No way Sanchez and Garcia are platooning, and no way the Marlins sign Story, not with Wendle and Rojas on the roster.
If they move Anderson, and Wendle becomes the full-time 3B, then maybe Rojas could move to utility to make room for an incoming SS. But they’re not spending the money on Story, nor are they giving him the years—Kahlil Watson will be ready long before a Story contract expired.
I doubt they’d go after Soler. Cooper and Aguilar likely have 1B and DH covered.
CF is the only spot on the offensive side that I can see them targeting. Maybe they can trade Anderson and two young pitchers to Arizona for Ketel Marte.
Then they can add a bullpen arm or two.
Moonlight:
Have the fish re-signed Aguilar or are you just speculating?
Aguilar is third year arb eligible, so has Miami already agreed to retain him and accept the arb result?
They mentioned Eury Perez…
It’s a secret…
Shut up…
Is that the wrong link to Eury Perez or is he really a 31 year old who recently moved from being an offensive player to a pitcher? If he truly is 31, it’s no surprise that he dominated A ball since the average age of A ball players is around 21 or 22.
Wait, I was able to find the ‘other’ Eury Perez who is an 18 year old, 6’8” pitcher. Kind of crazy that the Marlins have (2) Eury Perez’s in their organization. The young Perez (who was supposed to be linked to this article) sounds a like beast! Unlike the other Eury mentioned above, this 18 year old Eury (who was signed in 2019 as a 16-year old IFA) was actually very young for A ball and he absolutely dominated hitters down there. The rich keep getting richer with pitchers. Here is the correct link to young Eury’s profile:
baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=per…
Yeah they linked the wrong one. I was doing a Simpsons stonecutters moment there.
Eury was signed by the Marlins a couple years ago. Since he has signed he has grown several inches and added weight and his stuff grew with him. That’s why he is kind of a secret out there. Other pitchers are getting more attention. There are scouts in the organization that already have him as the teams #1 prospect. So he has been kind of a secret.
I dont see the Pirates trading Reynolds.
Pirate fans said the same about Stallings.
Red Sox fans said the same about Mookie.
Marlins fans said that about every good player…
You get the point
Well, it was a little different with Stallings. They were way more willing to listen on Stallings than Reynolds, and by a lot. When the Marlins asked about Reynolds at the trade deadline, they demanded their top 3 prospects (who are Max Meyer, Sixto Sanchez, and Edward Cabrera). Whent he Mariners phoned the Pirates about him right before the lockout, they wanted Julio Rodriguez and Nolevi Marte. As much as I wanted the Pirates to put an insane pricetag on Stallings, they never indicated that would be the case.
Pirates will trade Reynolds…when his arb costs become prohibitive in a few years. If he continues to perform he will prove himself out of Pittsburg.
They will receive a good return for him obviously.
Seems like a weird trade that won’t impact them immediately, but why would the Marlins not be interested in Austin Martin from the Twins? I understand the Max Kepler link, but I think Martin has more upside and a lower floor. Max Meyer for Martin straight up? Or maybe a package deal of Lopez, Meyer and a lower infield prospect gets them Kepler and Martin?
I think the Marlins need to strike now, patience turns into ignorance if you don’t recognize your window.
* higher floor
****
It seems that the window for Seiya Suzuki to sign an MLB deal is in the freeze. And surely he probably wants a guaranteed big league deal. But could he, theoretically, sign a “minor league deal” during the freeze? Wasn’t Ohtani’s original deal a minor league one?
No, his price point is beyond what’s permitted for a minor league deal.
I don’t follow. What is the price point difference between him and when Ohtani signed his minor league deal?
Teams cannot talk to the player’s agents, either,
But he is not in the MLBPA union. Wouldn’t that make him eligible to sign a Minor League Deal, as Ohtani did? Of course, I am also trying to figure out why Ohtani’s initial deal was a MILB one.
If he signs a minor league deal doesn’t that expose him to the Rule 5 draft? The league office isn’t doing any transactions right now. Good question about Ohtani. I know nothing about that.
“…Miami could try to effectively purchase a prospect or two by bailing the Yankees out of the remainder of their Aaron Hicks deal…”
—–
Good overview. That said, I do have a minor issue with the above suggestion, as I’ve seen it mentioned in other team reviews as well as by commenters. The Yankees don’t need to be “bailed out” of their deal with Hicks. There’s a dearth of CFers available, and the Yankees need a CFer. They’re not trading a CF at his low point when his $10MM AAV is negligible to them at this stage. They reset their luxury tax threshold in 2021, so they’re not looking to save and get under in 2022. If that was their goal, they would have traded him a year back before the start of the season and his injury as they knew they were trying to get under and stay under the lowest threshold. Instead, they held him, so they’re not simply going to give him away at this stage when they actually need him. To trade him means they’d lose a CF option and they’d have to move some prospect talent to do that. Nope. I mean, let’s be honest. The “wealthy” Marlins are not in need of bailing out the “poor” Yankees.
Hicks can fill one of two roles. Either become the starting CFer again, or he could shift into the Brett Gardner role as the heavy-rotation 4th OFer. With Stanton playing nearly half of his games in RF over the last two months of 2021, the Yankees could work out a job-share in CF with Hicks and Judge, and/or Gallo, with Stanton picking up more games in RF. With Hicks’ return, they have the in-house talent to make that rotation happen. No need to give away a piece of the puzzle to save money they don’t need to save while thinning prospect depth. Hicks remains quite effective when he plays (120 OPS+ 2017-2020), he’s a switch hitter, and can play all three OF positions. His issue is health. Reducing his playing time as a way to keep him healthier is probably the better way to go. He’s not going anywhere, unless the Yankees go out and sign Suzuki or Conforto for LF, moving Gallo to CF, or more likely they’ll trade Gallo in that scenario. Yes, it’s more likely the Yankees trade Gallo than Hicks.
I now return you to your regular Marlins programming.
Excellent points, Rob. I think this is one where even authors are starting to buy in to the Yankee poverty hyperbole. Cashman hugs prospects as it is, so there’s no way Cashman is giving away one or two prospects to facilitate a trade to dump a good contract. Why good? Because when he’s there, his contract is still a good deal. Yes, his injuries complicate that, but Cashman, like most discussing Correa, view value v costs, and Hicks’ value is above his costs.
Although I get this is merely an exercise is trade theory, it won’t happen, especially with the Marlins. More likely, it would be the A’s, and they would then trade Laureano. Either way, it’s not happening.
A’s are in worse situation with their stadium. Not to mention theyre cheaper than the Fish.
No way in hell they pick up Hicks tab even for good prospects PLUS give up Laureano
Trade for Laureano and Matt Olson, Send Trevor Rogers, Lewin Diaz, Monte Harrison, might take another prospect or two. Trade Aguilar, somebody will want him, keep Cooper as DH and to play some first or outfield until Laureano is available.
I don’t think there is a prospect in the Yankees system the Marlins could value that highly that would make them take on Hicks contract
Rsox:
You would be wrong. The Marlins are just one of approximately 29 teams that will be willing to assume Hicks’ contract if Jasson Dominguez is sent with him as part of the deal.
The Marlins would do well to trade a pitcher for Dominguez with or without Hicks being part of the deal.
Because the Marlins need another corner Outfielder in their system?
More than they need another cheap pitcher, yes! Two corner spots, a DH and a backup equals four roster spots. And apparently fish are opening Avisail logging innings in CF.
I would offer Eliser Hernandez and the choice of Cabrera or Meyer for Dominguez. Win-win deal!
Could also see the Marlins trading a pitcher to the Braves for Drew Waters or Harris. Both can play CF. I am no longer sure that Pache will hit major league pitching.
Is it just me the only one considering Brian Miller? I mean, if none of the CF via trade happen (Mullins, Reynolds, etc.) a De La Cruz/ Miller platoon seems not terrible.
Depending on how the team is performing by the trade deadline in July they can swing for a more ambitious offer to get an established CF.
I am not opposed to that. I would say try it out in spring and see what happens. I definitely want to see DLC get a shot. I understand his BABIP was high for last year but overall he looked good. Miller would make a good table setter but batting leadoff may be too much for the rookie. There are a couple things they could try in spring to see what happens.