It’s December 31st. The calendar is about to flip over to a new year, a time to reflect on the year that was and the year to come. The MLB lockout has also almost reached the one-month mark, giving us all plenty of time to think about the directions of our favourite baseball teams. So, without further ado, here’s a quick, or not-so-quick, overview of where each team is on the competitive spectrum heading into 2022.
In It To Win It
These teams won’t require a ton of explanation. They’ve been competing in recent years and figure to continue on that path. However, as we saw with the Nationals in 2021, teams have the potential to fall out of this section fast.
Angels: The Angels have been trying to win ever since Mike Trout’s debut in 2012, but without much success. Their only playoff appearance in that time was in 2014. Their last season with a winning percentage above .500 was 2015. Before the lockout, they signed four arms, bringing back Raisel Iglesias, as well as adding Aaron Loup, Michael Lorenzen and Noah Syndergaard.
Astros: They’ve made the playoffs five years in a row, including going to the World Series in 2021. Even if they don’t bring Carlos Correa back, they’ll be fine.
Blue Jays: The young core has arrived and the Blue Jays are in it. They made the expanded postseason in 2020 and came just shy in 2021, somehow missing the playoffs in a 91-win season. They’ve already spent some money on Kevin Gausman and Yimi Garcia this offseason, with more spending reportedly to come after the lockout.
Braves: Four straight years atop the NL East and the reigning World Series champs.
Brewers: Four straight trips to the postseason, including a 2021 that saw them win 95 games and top the NL Central. The retooling of the Cubs and Reds only helps them.
Cardinals: They’ve made the playoffs the past three years and haven’t finished below .500 since 2007. Before the lockout, they spent big to add Steven Matz to their rotation. Just like the Brewers, they’re helped by the retooling of the Cubs and Reds.
Dodgers: One of only two teams to cross the luxury tax barrier in 2021, there’s no question the Dodgers are going for it. They won the NL West eight straight years from 2013 to 2020, winning the World Series at the end of that run. In 2021, they had to settle for a Wild Card spot, thanks to the Giants, but that still made for a ninth straight postseason appearance.
Giants: After four straight losing seasons, the Giants stunned everyone by winning 107 games in 2021. Four-fifths of their starting rotation reached free agency after the season, but they’ve already re-signed Anthony DeSclafani and Alex Wood, as well as adding Alex Cobb, in order to reload for 2022.
Guardians: Cleveland finished above .500 for eight straight seasons from 2013 to 2020, making the playoffs five times and the World Series once. In 2021, they dropped down to 80-82, largely due to a rash of injuries to their starting rotation. With better health, they should be back over the line in 2022. They also should have some money to spend after the lockout, as their payroll is sitting below $50MM, which is low even for them.
Mariners: They haven’t made the playoffs since 2001, but they won 90 games in 2021 and just missed. They’ve already added Robbie Ray and Adam Frazier to go for it again in 2022.
Mets: The Mets were in the hunt for much of 2021 but stumbled down the stretch. Since then, they’ve been spending money like crazy to try and assure better results in 2022, including signing Max Scherzer, Starling Marte, Mark Canha and Eduardo Escobar.
Padres: The Padres were one of just two teams to go over the luxury tax line in 2021, along with the Dodgers. Like the Mets, they were in the playoff hunt for most of the year but stumbled down the stretch. Pitching health was a huge factor in their demise, but the return of Mike Clevinger should help them have better depth in 2022. They also added Luis Garcia, Robert Suarez and Nick Martinez to the staff before the lockout. (That last deal is still not official but apparently not in jeopardy.)
Phillies: After a long rebuild, the Phillies signalled they were ready to return to competing when they handed out a mega contract to Bryce Harper prior to the 2019 season. Since then, however, it’s been three years of treading around .500, going 81-81, 28-32 and 82-80 over the most recent campaigns. They’ve been relatively quiet so far this offseason, with their biggest pre-lockout move being the signing of Corey Knebel.
Rays: Four straight seasons above .500 and three straight postseason appearances, including a 100-win campaign in a stacked AL East in 2021. They just gave a huge extension to Wander Franco, sending a signal that they’re firmly in win-now mode for the foreseeable future.
Red Sox: The shortened 2020 campaign was bad for Boston, but they’ve won at least 84 games in the past five full seasons. In 2021, they won 92 games and made it to the ALCS. Before the lockout, they swapped Hunter Renfroe for Jackie Bradley Jr. and a couple of prospects, as well as signing James Paxton, Michael Wacha and Rich Hill.
White Sox: Despite a history that goes back over a century, the White Sox made the postseason two years in a row for the first time in 2020 and 2021. Although the teams below them are making some gains, they’re still clear favorites in the AL Central.
Yankees: Although they haven’t won the World Series since 2009, which might seem like an eternity to their fans, the Yankees haven’t had a losing season since 1992.
Creeping Up
These teams have definitely been rebuilding recently but seem like they’ve had enough and are ready to make a jump. They still have to prove it, as nothing is guaranteed in baseball. But the trajectory looks good.
Marlins: The Marlins somehow made the expanded playoffs in the shortened 2020 campaign, but the last time they finished above .500 in a full season was 2009. There’s no questioning it’s been a miserable stretch for the franchise. However, things are starting to look up. They’ve assembled such a bevy of talented young starting pitchers that they’ve already started using it to upgrade other parts of the roster. The first such move was sending Zach Thompson to Pittsburgh in order to acquire catcher Jacob Stallings, and similar moves could follow. They’ve also added Joey Wendle in a trade and opened the pocketbooks to bring in Avisail Garcia. It won’t be an easy climb, given that they’re looking up at the reigning World Series champs and big spenders like the Mets and Phillies, but they’re clearly ready to start getting more aggressive.
Rangers: The Rangers just finished their fifth straight losing season and second straight with a winning percentage below .400. Their 102 losses in 2021 was more than everyone else except for the Orioles and Diamondbacks. However, since then, they have completely flipped the script, spending over half a billion dollars to sign Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Jon Gray and Kole Calhoun. They still face stiff competition as they are sharing a division with the Astros, Mariners and Angels, but it’s clear they’ve decided they’re done rebuilding.
Royals: 2021 didn’t go according to plan for the Royals, as they finished 74-88 for a fifth-consecutive losing season. They had attempted to come out of their rebuild by adding players like Mike Minor, Carlos Santana and Andrew Benintendi to their young core. Unfortunately, several players underperformed and kept the team from pushing forward as far as they hoped. But they’re loaded with young pitchers who still have room to grow, and they should see top prospects Bobby Witt Jr. and Nick Pratto make their debuts in 2022.
Tigers: It was a fifth-straight losing season for the Tigers, but there were some signs of hope in 2021. After a miserable 8-19 start in April, they went 69-66 the rest of the way. Just like the Rangers, the Tigers clearly decided that was enough rebuilding and that it was time to spend. Prior to the lockout, they put cash on the barrel for Eduardo Rodriguez and Javier Baez, signaling that they’re making their move.
Twilight Zone
These teams are sort of in-between one option or another for now. After the lockout, things have the potential to move in different directions, with some teams perhaps forced to settle for a mushy middle-ground of not committing firmly to either path.
Athletics: It’s been four straight winning seasons for Oakland, but all signs are pointing towards a step back in 2022. The club let manager Bob Melvin depart for San Diego, seemingly content to get his salary off the books. Then general manager David Forst addressed the issue in November, admitting that they’re willing to field offers for any player on the roster. Although they haven’t hit the rebuild button just yet, it seems likely that the post-lockout era will see them quickly deal away some of their players that are approaching free agency, such as Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Matt Olson, Matt Chapman or Frankie Montas. It might not be a lengthy rebuild, as the club has never had more than three consecutive losing seasons in the Billy Beane era. Still, it seems like the tide is pushing against them for now.
Cubs: After spending the past year trading away most of their World Series-winning core, it seemed like the Cubs were diving headfirst into the rebuild zone. However, this offseason has seen them make some surprising additions, as they claimed Wade Miley off waivers and then signed Marcus Stroman, Clint Frazier and Yan Gomes. They’ve definitely weakened themselves with their recent selloff, but they also don’t seem interested in fully bottoming out either.
Diamondbacks: The Diamondbacks have one of the cloudier crystal balls in the league. After three straight winning seasons, from 2017 to 2019, they went 25-35 in 2020. But given the small sample size of that season, it was reasonable enough to expect a decent campaign in 2021. Unfortunately, just about everything went wrong and they went 52-110, tied with the Orioles for the worst record in baseball. Was this just a terrible, fluky nightmare or their true talent level? General manager Mike Hazen doesn’t think they need a full rebuild to get back on track, but they’re still in a tough spot, as the division features the Giants and Dodgers, who each won over 100 games in 2021, as well as a strong Padres team that underperformed and could easily be very good in 2022. So far, the DBacks have been fairly quiet this offseason, with their signing of Mark Melancon being their most noteworthy move. Their post-lockout plan is one of the most difficult to predict at the moment.
Reds: After a lengthy rebuild that saw the Reds post a losing record for six straight seasons from 2014 to 2019, they emerged as competitors in 2020, going 31-29 in the shortened season and qualifying for the expanded playoffs. In 2021, they hung around the Wild Card race all year but eventually came up short, finishing 83-79, a winning record but seven games shy of the postseason. Since then, the tea leaves have been ominous for Cincy fans. First, Tucker Barnhart was traded to Detroit. Then, general manager Nick Krall discussed the trade, saying “going into 2022, we must align our payroll to our resources and continue focusing on scouting and developing young talent from within our system.” That was followed by Wade Miley being put on waivers despite a great season in 2021 and a modest $10MM option for 2022. He will now be a division rival, as he was quickly snatched up by the Cubs. Since then, there has been a series of rumors detailing how almost every other team in the league wants to acquire Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle or Sonny Gray. Although they remain with the Reds for now, it seems the club is going to try and walk a fine line wherein they shed some payroll but stay competitive. It’s hard to subtract from an 83-win team and see them improve, but it seems like that’s what they’re going to try.
Rockies: Perhaps the most confounding team in the league, it’s really tough to figure out what to make of the Rockies. 2021 was their third straight losing season, which should have motivated them to at least make some future-focused moves. Instead, the trade deadline passed without them trading Trevor Story or Jon Gray. After the season, Story received a qualifying offer but Gray did not. The Rangers have since signed Gray, meaning the Rockies have lost him for nothing. Story seems destined to sign elsewhere, which will at least net them an extra draft pick. But we’re looking at a 74-win team has just lost two of its best players and shares a division with strong teams like the Giants, Dodgers and Padres. If they have a plan to return to postseason contention, it’s not apparent from the outside at the moment.
Twins: Minnesota made the playoffs three out of four years, qualifying for the postseason in 2017, 2019 and 2020, winning the AL Central in those latter two seasons. But just about everything went wrong in 2021, with the club finishing in the basement of the division with a record of 73-89. Owner Jim Pohlad has made it clear that they are not going into a rebuild, which they backed up by finally agreeing to an extension with Byron Buxton. However, what’s keeping them in the twilight zone is their rotation. They traded away Jose Berrios, lost Kenta Maeda to Tommy John surgery and Michael Pineda to free agency. The frenzied free agent market for starting pitching prior to the lockout essentially passed them by. They did sign Dylan Bundy, but he lost his rotation spot for the Angels in 2021 and finished the season with an ERA over 6.00. It’s hard to view your team as a competitor if that’s your ace. There are still some options available after the lockout, but there are lots of holes to be filled there. With the White Sox the clear division favorites and the Guardians, Tigers and Royals all in position to take steps forward in 2022, the Twins will have a difficult time papering over their flaws in the short window between the end of the lockout and the start of the season.
In The Tank
These teams are all focused on the future, with their respective 2022 seasons primarily dedicated to giving playing time to young, unproven players, or perhaps signing veterans to short-term deals with the aim of flipping them for prospects later.
Nationals: The Nationals stand out as an example of how quickly a team can swing from competing to rebuilding. On July 1st, 2021, the club was 40-39, 2 1/2 games behind the Mets in the NL East, a game and a half ahead of the Braves. They had won the World Series just a year and a half prior, in their eighth consecutive winning season. But after a disastrous stretch in July, they pulled the ripcord and went into full firesale mode, trading away Max Scherzer, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, Yan Gomes, Josh Harrison, Brad Hand, Daniel Hudson and Jon Lester. They figure to spend at least a year in the wilderness, giving playing time to younger players to see whether they can be part of the next winning club or not. However, with superstar Juan Soto just three years from free agency, they don’t want this reboot to take too long. Soto’s agent Scott Boras has said he won’t consider an extension until the team proves to him it’s committed to winning.
Orioles: There’s no sugarcoating this one. The Orioles have had a losing record in five straight seasons. In each of the last three full seasons, they lost at least 108 games. They lost 110 games in 2021, tied with the Diamondbacks for the worst in baseball. They are definitely tanking and likely will be for some time. They do have some exciting prospects on the way, headlined by Adley Rutschman, the consensus top prospect in the game. Their system is considered the second best in the league by Baseball America’s Organization Talent Rankings. However, they share a division with four teams that won at least 91 games in 2021. It’s going to take some time for the Orioles to even get mediocre, let alone competitive.
Pirates: The Pirates haven’t won a division title since 1992. After that, they endured a 20-year postseason drought, before qualifying for the Wild Card game in three straight years from 2013 to 2015. They’ve missed the playoffs in the six seasons since. They went 82-79 in 2018 but have had three straight miserable seasons, going 69-93, 19-41 and 61-101 from 2019 to 2021. It’s all about the future now, with the most recent move being Jacob Stallings getting traded to Miami for youngsters. Like the Orioles, the farm system is well regarded, coming in fourth on Baseball America’s rankings. The development of those prospects will determine when they can get out of the basement. General manager Ben Cherington has proven himself adept at this type of rebuild before, but the Pirates have less resources than his previous clubs, the Red Sox and Blue Jays.
So are the Nats seriously on the same tier as the Pirates and the Orioles?
Just curious as Gray and Ruiz were MLB ready prospects as opposed to guys a few years away, and as you mention the Nats don’t want their rebuild to take too long because of Soto. So in that sense I don’t see them being more of a tank than the Dbacks or Royals but that’s just me
i mean what they WANT to do means nothing here. they arent that close yet.
I would say I’m a little surprised the Nats were listed behind the Diamondbacks. Maybe even the Rockies. I think they might just be giving those teams credit for deciding not to rebuild yet. I would rather give the Nats credit for being smart enough to know when they should rebuild. I don’t see how a team like the Diamondbacks can try their hardest and finish with the worst record in baseball but be considered better than the Nats who weren’t near as bad even though they started a rebuild. The Royals and Twins look like they might have gotten a little more credit than they deserved, too. I’m not sure I would have the Angels in the top tier quite yet. That’s the same tier as the Dodgers, Astros, Giants and Braves. The Angels aren’t even close to those teams.
angels aren’t done improving the team. they were after scherzer and will acquire another top rotation arm. and a ss, preferably on a shorter term. all they would need more is a couple of late inning bullpen pitchers.
i, as an angels fan who had been very skeptical of their chances, see them a serious contender. that is if they get those relief pitchers.
The Nats are in their own category, imo. They are a flat tank in one sense, but in another they have the best player in baseball, or 2nd best (don’t want to risk the fury of the Trout). They are truly awful, but on the other hand have one of the most aggressive front offices in the game and have loads of money. I tend to think of them as just biding their time to figure out how they’re going to make their next run. They could, if they wanted, be back in contention in a weak division as soon as 2023. Not 2022, as they’ve waited too long for that.
About the Angels, I think it has more to do with the core and the effort the front office is doing to try to win.
There is no question the core is there and there is no question the ownership wants to win this year.
One step at a time.
The Los Angeles Angels need to end MLB’s longest current streak of consecutive losing seasons.
@DarkSide830 Nor are a lot of teams that they didn’t put in the “tanking” category.
Still a pretty wide range of possible outcomes for the Nationals. Depends whether they get anything this season out of Strasburg and Corbin, whether they add any more short term free agents after the lockout, etc.
Unless they spend a boat load of money and some unheralded prospects suddenly get better immediately the Nats really don’t have a wide range of outcomes. We could see Corbin rediscover something but Strasburg underwent TOS surgery and if I’m remembering correctly the best TOS outcome so far has been Chris Young, I wouldn’t get my hopes up as far as he’s concerned. The Nats have holes all over the diamond, they need a lot of help.
Money money money. The Nats have loads of it. Anything is possible. I bet they wait a year, but they could make themselves a contender no problem.
I think people look at all the players the Nationals unloaded last year and think those trades indicated something for 2022. When in fact all but one of those players would have been free agents anyway (and only 1 more year for Trea Turner). They’re where they would have been anyway, plus the trade returns.
I’m not sure they’re really looking to “tank” for draft picks. What they’re doing is using a season or two to assess and develop what they have on hand before making any long term additions. And add short term pieces to flip and further restock.
I agree with 16o0. Dbacks and Royals should have been put in the Tank.
they aren’t tanking. they just are bad.
There’s this weird tendency among baseball writers to see the Dbacks as far, far more talented than they really are. I don’t understand this. Maybe their GM has a lot of friends among the writers? Dunno, but I do know that this has been one of the 2 or 3 worst rosters in baseball for a couple years now. Their 2021 didn’t surprise me at all (and I watch them a lot as a fan of another NL West team). Maybe the depth of their awfulness, but that’s just a matter of degree.
I agree that many pundits and fans for whatever reason felt AZ was a serious contender heading into the ‘20 and ‘21 seasons. I didn’t see what they were seeing, and when I pointed out inconvenient facts I was told I know nothing about baseball. Strange phenomenon. Did anyone really think the MadBum contract was a sound decision? The roster construction is puzzling. The FO seems to believe 2021 was an outlier. The Dbacks are beginning to remind me of COL – the product of groupthink in a vacuum that produces mediocre results that are routinely explained away.
You can’t argue with the pundits. Way back I urged the Tigers to get the rookie pitcher Kershaw from the Dodgers because the Dodger owner was going through a divorce with financial issues, he will be selling stuff for cash…..
I was told I was idiot and Kershaw was an untested rookie.
3 months later, MLB blocked the Dodgers from.offing players for cash…..
Pundit. means arse.kissing.group think.
Is being under 500 the only characteristic a team needs to have to be considered rebuilding?
one team can spend a lot of money but injuries can ruin a season. is the team tanking?
The Angels are on Line 1 and would like to answer that question…
angels are changing. when trout and ohtani professes their desire to play in postseason the team has to do something different. they are adding top pitching talents and a ss. they will be good.
@Vizionaire
Yes, two players stating they want to win makes all the difference. Where are these TOR starters they are going to acquire? Which SS meets their budget? I would like to think every team has more than two players who want to win. Trout already signed and has no leverage. He’s with them for the long haul, just like Pujols. If Ohtani signs a team friendly deal, maybe they will be able to sign another pitcher to more than a one yr contract. Until then they have to get lucky with their pitching.
angels, allegedly, offered scherzer close to $40 mil per season. they will get another tor starting pitcher through f/a or trade. same for a ss. but the team has 2 highly regarded ss prospects that may arrive in around 2024. they don’t need to sign correa or story.
they were also talking to chris bryant, possibly, for rf position.
the angels seemed to operate as if the upper threshold would go up to $240-250 million.
The Halos need Rodon , Castillo, or maybe even Gray for the fan base to believe 2022 is going to be different from years past.
Ohtani deserves 50m+ a year. Team friendly is a slap in the face.
Their season went into the toilet once Schwarber got hurt. They had to make trades to improve their minor league system. They are not tanking next year. They want to see if Kieboom, Garcia, Thomas and a lot of their pitchers are major league players. One guy they should give up on is Victor Robles.
A lot of people don’t understand what tanking is. If your team is going to lose so you don’t spend money, that is not tanking. That’s just smart business. If your highly paid players suck but they still play, that is not tanking. That’s just making a chump who screwed you earn his money the same way everyone else does. Tanking is intentionally losing games. Just because a team is terrible doesn’t mean they are all tanking on purpose. Just because a .300 team decides they don’t want to spend millions of dollars to become an equally useless .400 team doesn’t make them tankers. People confuse not spending frivolously with tanking.
this ^^^^^^^^^^^^^
@ Hammer & Astros
Your correct — tanking is losing on purpose— not by the players — by the FO. And it’s either done for draft picks or payroll savings for the owner, or both. I have no problem with a team doing this for 1 season, even 2 I’ll tolerate, but 3 no, that’s far too long to roster the worst team possible.
A 3 year tank will take an additional 1-2 years to become serious contenders at best, so that’s at least a half-decade of misery for the teams fans, and just as bad, upsets the competitiveness of the league, and especially the division. Then in addition to to the aforementioned issues we have the players association getting angrier by the “tank” which will likely affect small-market teams with the next CBA.
Fans of these teams can rationalize all they want, but this needs to end. And I’m not talking about a payroll floor, but real penalties for losing. Any team with more than 110 losses more than once in any 5 year period — POBO & GM lose their jobs. Any team with 3 100 loss seasons in any 5 year period the top 2 leaders of the FO lose their jobs. This should immediately end the “vicious tank”.
So this tanking has nothing to do with the team owner? As in the case of Oakland they are saving money as their Manager left and they signed a first time manager to a lot less money – another form of tanking that will be added to the saving money group which will have some costs to wins as his lack of experience. So the front office gets fired by MLB and they will rehire newbies and still save money. Yeah, that showed ’em.
Ownership can only lose for so long without taking the ire of their fan base and baseball world in general. With these types of penalties in place I don’t think an owner would want this stigma inflicted upon their franchise. And maybe Oakland’s FO/Ownership asked Bob Melvin what he wanted to do after being told of another re-build forthcoming. You know — respect.
Hard to believe Robles was a higher ranked OF prospect in Nats minor leagues coming up. Only reason Soto got call first was Robles was injured when they needed a OF to come up.
Long time reader, first time commentor…
Can I get a Cleveland fan explain to me the hope for the season? As a Royals fan I see the White Sox is the biggest competition. It seems to me that Cleveland has lost a lot of their talent over the last two years.
Thank you.
yeah honestly seems like CHWs division to lose. MIN and CLE are going the wrong direction. KC could certainly finish 2nd and be a WC (hopefully I’m not jinxing them again).
@coachsixstring (and anyone else):
Cleveland’s starting pitching makes them a wildcard (figuratively. Not like they will definitely win the wild card). The Milwaukee Brewers just rode three starting pitchers and a good bullpen all the way to the playoffs. Anything can happen with Cleveland. It’s definitely the White Sox division to lose though. Between Seattle, Houston, Toronto, Boston, Tampa Bay and the Yankees I think it’s pretty unlikely Cleveland wins a wild card. They definitely have an uphill battle.
What’s going on in Cleveland is pretty sad. $50 million payroll. Three ace caliber starters. An MVP caliber third baseman. Week ALCS division. If there is any time to spend money it is right now. That team could sign Correa, Story, Freeman, Castellanos and Schwarber while still having enough money to retool some pitching or add Suzuki and not hit the luxury tax. They could become instant world series favorites right now while underspending the Mets by $50 million.
If there is any time to spend in Cleveland town it is right now. If this owner won’t do it than he needs to stop piddling around with selling minority shares and just sell the whole team who has the balls to do what it takes to win a championship with all these great young cheap players and payroll space. Like you, I’m not super high on the Cleveland roster now. As they are I think a repeat of last season is likely and I could see a world where Detroit overtakes them for 2nd place.
I’m a little more bearish on Kansas City. The roster doesn’t impress me as much as it does some other people. I think the writers give the Royals a little too much credit for spending money. I like Perez but he has clear holes and the Royals almost definitely paid more to extend him than he would make on the free agent market. Benintendi is talented but inconsistent. The Royals do have a great farm system and I hope Witt pans out.
I really don’t understand their free agent moves. They are a small market team with a low payroll but they don’t function like the Rays at all. The Rays try to get the best bang for their buck and rarely ever overspend on any player because they know they can’t afford to. The Royals seem to take the opposite approach. It looks like the Royals plan is to overpay for free agents and use the fact they are a small market team as an excuse. They say they have to overpay to get players to come to them. The thing is, they don’t even overpay for great players. They overpay for bad players and pretend that makes them good players. $18 million for Santana? He has power but that’s about it. The Royals paid him that when he was coming off a season batting in the .100’s. $18 million for Mike Minor? He was coming off a season with an ERA over 5.50! He was okay in Texas for a short bit but was terrible for a long time before that. I did some research on him. It almost looks like the only time he was good in Texas was when Jeff Mathis was catching. Mathis might be the best pitch framer and best defensive catcher I’ve ever seen. In other words, Mike Minor was good in Texas because Jeff Mathis was likely getting umpires to call a lot of his balls as strikes.
Since when is a pitcher with an ERA over 5.50 worth $9 million a year? Since when is a defensively challenged player who can’t even hit .200 worth $9 million a year? I don’t think any other team in the league would have paid those guys that kind of money so I’m not sure why the Royals did.
In the end I think it’s still all Chicago which is crazy the way their front office has completely fumbled the Kimbrel, Madrigal and Rodon situations. I think Cleveland will probably finish 2nd and miss the playoffs. I think Detroit will finish third but may overtake Cleveland soon. I view KC as behind all of them but hopefully their prospects come up and make a difference if they stop spending foolishly on free agents. Minnesota has to be last. They just spent over $100 million on a player who can’t stay healthy. Way overpaid for old man Josh Donaldson. Lost way too much starting pitching to stand a chance. The other 4 teams can make changes and get better quickly. Minnesota needs a rebuild in my opinion and the longer they are in denial about it the longer it will be before they win a world series. Just like the Diamondbacks and Rockies. All three of those teams need to completely start over in my opinion.
Sorry if that was too long. I didn’t expect it to be. I just started typing and the more I typed the more I thought about the AL Central. Thanks for reading if you did!
Larry Dolan, and now his son Paul, have owned the Guardians since 2000. In 2009, Paul Dolan famously said “Every four or five years, if we can have a shot at the World Series and compete for the playoffs like we did in ’05, that’s as good as it gets.” Now why would you expect anything different? That’s not what the military calls a ‘can do’ attitude. Not exactly full commitment.
Hey east of the Rockies.
Cleveland is a wild card because of all their young pitching. If they can stay healthy and develop like they have in the past, they could run away with that division.
They could use a slugging outfielder and they have payroll room ($50 million payroll really!!??) but their billionaire owner (who flies coach-forget buying his own plane) keeps crying poverty even after local governments are going to
give him 100’s of millions to fix up their stadium !
they have the 4th best record in all of MLB, 2015-2021.
The Cleveland Dolans don’t have the money. They essentially borrowed from Larry’s brother Charles to buy the Indians. He started Cablevision and he and his son James own the Knicks and Rangers.
Before the rash of injuries in their starting rotation last year they were in first place, despite having the worst hitting outfield in baseball.
If our pitching is healthy we will be in it, especially if we can pick up a major league outfielder or two and a couple relief pitchers who can hold their own.
Cleveland was in a ‘rebuild on the fly’ the past 2-3 years. At one point that’s what Francona even called it, and commented on how hard it would be to do.
They traded off some guys they were going to lose to FA because they couldn’t possibly pay their salaries, and picked up a lot of ML-ready players for Francona and his staff to work with. At times during the coming season they’ll be bringing up at least a half-dozen players from the minors (as the Rays did last year with starting pitchers) – many of them SS’s, as well as a few Pitchers. They play good fundamental baseball and should compete this year in the ALC. Like the Tigers and Royals, they'll go as far as their pitching takes them.
Hey Samuel – check this out champsorchumps.us/records/most-mlb-wins-since-2015
I’m a Cleveland fan so I’m likely biased, but I also watch this team more than fans in other markets obviously would. So take that as you will.
Pretty much everyone good in their rotation missed a huge chunk of time with injuries, and the two that didn’t got demoted to the minors (McKenzie) or didn’t even start the year in the rotation (Quantrill). They still only finished two games below .500, so if you can also get a healthy year out of Bieber, Civale, and Plesac instead of relying on JC Mejia and Sam Hentges then you’ll be looking a lot better.
Jose Ramirez is an MVP candidate and Franmil Reyes is a good hitter that can carry a team when he’s hot. The rest of the lineup is pretty underwhelming, but every year they’re always more than the sum of their parts. They’re a great example of “that’s why you play the games”.
They also have a really good farm system with a few players that are very close to major league ready.
With that pitching and at least a few bats you can imagine a path for Cleveland to win the Central.
Everyone is quick to forget that Cleveland had a 3-year stretch where they were spending money. They were middle of the pack, spending an average of $125 million on payroll between 2017 and 2019. I know everyone loves the “cheap owner” narrative.. but the team has spent before.
I’m guessing they will boost payroll a bit this year.. but it will probably be modest. Much like last year, they have a handful of young position players they need to find out about. Namely Arias, Straw, Naylor, Gimenez, and Owen Miller.. are these guys solid everyday contributors? If they find out that the answer is ‘yes’ on a few of these guys, look for them to be in the hunt for a WC spot and active at the trade deadline.
I imagine they will be looking at the OF free agent market this year but won’t land any exciting names. Probably a more likely scenario is they strike up a trade for a solid reliever or a guy like Carlos Santana. Other than that, they will probably focus on trying to lock-up some of their existing guys like Bieber, Ramirez, Plesac, and Civale.
Nice post CKinSTL
Cleveland is the last team that should be criticized in any way shape or form for anything— even a $50MM payroll. As you pointed out they’ve spent money in the recent past, if I’m not mistaking, even a year or two near or over $150MM.
Their FO has my upmost respect, and for more than a decade. Shapiro was ahead of his time and so is Antonetti. To contend, as a small-market team, 8 years in a row, until an injury-riddled outlier season in ‘21, is a testament to their FO AND ownership.
I don’t really care where the Pirates finish in terms of wins and losses in the next couple years as long as the talent at the minor league level they have amassed develops. Don’t know that if call that “tanking”. Seems there is light at the end of the tunnel here. How novel
Wouldn’t call Cleveland or Royals “in it to win it”, neither team is deep on the offensive side at all.
And the Royals (whom I have a soft spot for) have ??? for pitching…..
Singer, Kower, Bubic, Lynch and Hernandez need to lock-in. The starting jobs are theirs to lose.
When you are phrasing the entire rotation as “theirs to lose” that doesn’t bode well. You need a few “locked-in” guys already if you plan on winning.
Exactly right, Chipper. That’s the only way to build a winning team, and the Royals don’t have those ‘locks’.
@jorge78 asked who they had for pitching and I answered the question. To say they are no bodies is not the case. Look at their records after the break last year.
Question for Cleveland Fans….what should the Padres expect from recent hire Ruben Niebla? He seems like a great hire for our pitching squad, based on his resume from Cleveland, no?
Great article!
Thanks DM!
I would think what Jerry Dipoto accomplished in Seattle with his “re-imagining/step-back” process should absolutely shame these other teams who are full-on tanking with 3,4,5 year rebuilds. With only TWO down seasons, Dipoto and gang turned over a staggeringly decrepit overpriced roster and barren farm system to come out the other side with an exciting team with young talent that won 90 games last year and a #1 or #2 farm system to boot.
If I was an Orioles fan, I would be looking at what Seattle did in such a quick turnaround and be rather miffed at the glacial pace of positive change. There should be no reason for rebuilding efforts that last years & years after observing what Seattle has accomplished.
Very good point!
Well that could work with most teams, hard to imagine the same success in the east. The other 4 teams won at lest 91 games each. Good for 1st 4th 5th and 6th in the AL. It’s some really strong competition to feel like you need to rise up against immediately
It’s way easier to win 90 games in the AL West than it is in the East, so I’d pump the brakes a bit. You also can’t forget the O’s for years never signed an IFA, which put Elias in a tough spot coming in. He also didn’t get to flip the few valuable assets the O’s had like Machado himself.
The Yankees were the only AL East team to post a winning record against AL West teams in 2021.
On the strength of the Yankees’ 22-12 record against the AL West, this year the AL East held a narrow 83-82 edge in head-to-head competition against the AL West.
This past season AL East teams had the luxury of playing their interleague games against the NL West while AL West teams were paired with the far tougher NL West.
Looks like a typo in your last sentence.
with all the spending the Rangers did in the off season, I still don’t see them having a winning season. I wouldn’t consider them creeping up to anything but another blown season.
The Orioles should be relegated to the minors. They don’t even attempt to field competitive teams.
Or, just meet in the middle with the pirates. There’s a town called Flintstone.. it’s almost too good to be true.
The Orioles are supposed to have one of the best farm systems in baseball. Let’s see if it leads anywhere. Actually, the Pirates are supposed to have one of the best too.
I’m pulling up in the bulletproof Rezvani TANK , and my A’s better get their tank on . I want topnotch talent for the trade pieces . Non of those crap deals they’ve done before in the past . Get this tank moving towards a new stadium in VEGAS . One year tank with the right trades .
The thing about the A’s is every team has a pretty good idea on their strategy. They have talent, but do they have the leverage?
Why would you root for your team to move to another city?
Question is, are some teams tanking, or are they just consistently poorly run? Looking at the Rockies and the Royals.
“Tanking” to me means willing to lose for high draft picks. And the Royals aren’t doing do that. They’ve made some poor free agent decisions in an effort to improve so the results may be the same as tanking but kudos to them for trying to be better.
did 2015 disappear?
No, of course not, but that doesn’t negate decades of incompetence.
i dunmo about that. i think it’s darn hard to luck into a world championship.
Cubs have Frank the Tank, but hey he was pretty good for 2021b
Draft lottery, strict salary regulations, and revise the rule 5 draft- anyone not on a 40 man is eligible after 3 years of minor league ball. Free agency after 4 years of minors. In game competition need to be paramount for the future; not salaries. No black out restrictions.
It’s time for the league to get the kids interested again.
Trying to lose should never be an advantage.
Your plan screams disaster. You can’t develop a SP in three years of minors time. It takes 3 years sometimes to simply get a feel for what you have.
Can we also please stop ranting about player salaries? Whenever someone makes a comment like this I immediately just see it as professional jealousy. It’s not just a game. It’s a multi-billion dollar industry, and I’d argue many players should make more.
I’m not ranting about player salaries, at all. What I am saying is the having polar team salaries creates separation in competition, before the 1st inning
I don’t care about organizational strategy for developing a starting pitching after 4 years. Winning the World Series should be the most important thing. Placing the best of the best on the field should be the league’s goal, winning should be the team’s goal, earnings and championships has always been the individuals and coaches end goal.
too many young free agents will hurt their chances for bigger compensation. but i agree with everything else you posted.
This is one of the lamest articles on this site in years
The Orioles have been so fixated on hitters, particularly power hitters, over the past 15-20 years (or more), they’ve lost sight of what it takes to win. They need pitching. Whether it comes from the draft, free agency or trades. The Pirates are just hopelessly lost.
Pre-Cherington, the Pirates were indeed hopelessly lost for a good while. Now he’s just cleaning up the mess he inherited. But if you really look closely at what they’ve done more recently, there is a plan in place. They’re not “half-assing” a rebuild like they used to do, they’ve full-blown committed to it. The amassed minor-league talent is impressive. Now at some point of course they are going to have to start spending to win, but they know they’re not there yet.
I just don’t see any stars in the system, some guys that look pretty promising but they need a Vlad Jr, Tatis, Franco, Acuna type. Hell, the Marlins aren’t a lot better than Pittsburgh and they’re 7 deep in strong young arms, Pirates don’t even have one.
It takes mote than one year to build a contender. Just because you are not a favorite to win a WS does not mean you are tanking. You have to build up your roster over several seasons.
it’s a spectrum for a reason.
Sorry, but the Angels are not “in it to win it”. Ownership won’t go big on SP. Thor is not a “go big SP”, coming back from injury.
Without solid starting pitching, their just ahead of Tex-which will be 4th in the west.
wrong again!
So teams that don’t spend big on free agent starting pitching are not in it to win it?
that was an angels specific statement.
Chicago Cubs owner can claim all they want that they’re not tanking, their actions this year say they are. They signed a few players to beef up season ticket sales. Everyone signed is 1 to 2 years.The structure of Stroman’s contract looks like they hope to trade him. Gomes signing looks like a trade of Contreras. Cubs only have 1 MLB ready prospect, making trades for prospects is their only option to compete in the future.
Al slamming time!
You all know who I am talking about, don’t you?
That was NOT a rebuild, it was a tanking session.
There are some great opportunities to do a rebuild this year but it looks like Al will miss every single one of them because he is selling Kool Aid, pretending the team is on the cusp. It is nowhere even close.
FOR THE LAST TIME THIS YEAR.
CHRIS ILLICH, HIRE THE SUPERFIFE. He knows what he is doing. HELP THE TEAM, HELP THE SUPERFIFE, HELP YOURSELF.
Before I even read the article I had a problem with the word “Tanking” in the headline. What does that mean? What does ‘Rebuild” mean?
What names differentiate a franchise that trades off its few marketable players to acquire prospects and begin to make their ML roster younger along with replenishing their farm system some (as the A’s have done in the past 20 years and seem to be getting ready to do now); as opposed to a franchise such as the Pirates and Orioles that had to build an entirely new FO and coaching structure which includes acquiring technology and building the infrastructure and people to maintain it – bringing in-house people up to speed on using it productively as well as brining in personnel from the outside that build a modern departments in areas such as scouting, coaching fundamentals and mechanics, etc. all the while building a productive farm system to feed the ML team….all of which takes years.
The thing about this chatroom is that so many see things at ends of the spectrum…in absolutes….black or white….good or bad…..great or crummy. Lets put a label on it to voice our dissatisfaction.
I’ve been watching MLB for over half a century. I know what Al Avila has accomplished. I knew the state the Tigers were in due to out of control contracts, an aging roster, little in the farm system, and behind in the use of technology in MLB.
Al’s done a great job. From what I see they’re coming out of some sort of a rebuild. From what you write you want them to go into a rebuild.
Al has not done too well. Bad luck and many, many missed opportunities. Let me explain.
To me what you mentioned above is a business restructuring. Anything I refer to is directly related to the roster or rather players employed by the team.
A rebuild to me is actively gathering a new core of prospects to move forward with. Al has only obtained our top prospects by draft. He obtained high draft pick by tanking, playing a core who had little chance to succeed on the MLB level. He was hoping to get lucky.
He did not trade what we had for much. Once again hoping to get lucky. Remember when Ausmus has that 9 game win streak…we were miraculously in second place…I said…stop drinking the Kool Aid, we have not played any of the contenders….. Al balked, hoping to get lucky. Of course we have to wait for what we did get to develop, but they are not top mlb prospects. But that is the least of it.
He did not:
Sign tradable contracts. Signing players other teams want or possible trade deadline guys. For example pitcher X wants 3 years, 20M/year; other teams are interested or he should perform reasonably well and be desired during the season. So we sign the player. But since we are intending to trade the player, we tweak the contract. Say a $6M signing bonus and $18M/year – something that the receiving team is getting a good AAS deal.If we are not so sure of the player,make it in the form of a team option, $6M bonus, $18M + team.option 2 years $18M. Meet or exceed the players demands. Do it this way, and you can ask for top prospects. Basically, you would be buying top prospects with signing bonuses. That’s just one, “how to” example.
Instead, Al signs one years contracts with no reduction to salary – with absolutely no trade value – committing the CARDINAL SIN of allowing agents to showcase their clients on the MLB level in exchange for ABSOLUTELY NOTHING, except good will. Well, ain’t that nice.
I could go on and on, but we all know superlong posts stink. Face it, Al stinks that bad, I need more space….
Did not take on salary for prospects (how many contenders want to dump.a contract or two?)
Is too close to the players who have done reasonably well. He should be proud of them, but be ready to trade them as he as to consider the age of the prospects ( timing ). I can go on and on….
Al has NOT done such a good job compounded by bad luck.
You know? The harder I work, the luckier I get.
Al and Chris need to hire me to see the forrest for the trees.
Besides, I’m slick on the phone….
The Saber-toothed Superfife
That was NOT a rebuild, it was a tanking session.
========================
Not really. I guess you can have your own definition of tanking, but the Tigers just get bad, old, and expensive.
It took them a couple of years, but Al finally has them exactly where they should be.
Al has made several mistakes, mostly with the FA pitchers he’s paid to spend time on Detroit’s IL. (I do like the ERod signing). No GM is perfect. That said, I like where the team is currently. Their drafts have been better. The players are developing. They finally look like a team built for the stadium they play in.
Ahhh, the Angels…frustrating to be a fan. Hopeful for 2022.
We should avoid using that term: “t**king.” It’s much more nuanced than that.
well, the pirates and orioles are tanking in anybody’s books. nats, a’s are trying out quick tanking in hopes to rebuild.
Agreed. It’s just the modern version of “rebuilding” but with a derogatory spin.
That is, unless someone has a reasonable way to distinguish the two. I’ve been watching baseball for 40+ years and there have always been terrible teams. Some were “rebuilding” and others were just poorly run.
Reading sites like this, you’d think the Astros were the first team to ever be bad during a rebuild.
The Guardians are not “in it to win it”. They’ll be battling the Twins for last place.
Mike Clevinger the reliever
What are the odds that the Pirates and Orioles are still “tanking” in another 5 years?
The Orioles won’t be considered tanking after this season. They’ll be in the same upward swing the Tigers have graduated into this past season. They won’t be contending yet as they have many young players still developing, but they won’t be actively playing for draft picks.
Lol Angels
Archangel Michael will strike you with a lightening! LMAO at you!
1. If the A’s were trying to get Melvin’s salary off the books they would have never picked up his option.
2. Boras and Soto absolutely will consider an extension if the Nats are willing to pay.
Folks continue to misuse the word ‘tanking’. If I go into the ring with Tyson, and get knocked out in the 1st, it is not because I am tanking. It’s because I am no good.
Tanking has to include an element of deliberately trying to lose.
I also believe Tanking is not trying to get better, Because the MLB will give them better prospects.
No. It’s because you’re an idiot. Only an idiot would get into a ring with Mike Tyson.
Don’t you value your ears?
Yankees are essentially tanking at only 210 to spread around.
I love what the Marlins and Mariners are doing with Detroit not that far behind them. All three teams have some nice pieces in the pipeline that are either ready or close to being ready to help.
It really is deplorable, disgusting, and egregious what the Baltimore franchise has devolved to in its current state. I feel so sorry for the fans because this was a once proud and storied team with a great history and multiple HOF players and dynasties going back decades. What on earth happened and who allowed such a travesty to take place ?? It ought to be criminal, look at that beautiful ballpark sitting empty! Powers that be allowed this to happen and I don’t understand the utter abandonment of the legendary franchise that brought us Eddie Murray, Brooks Robinson, Cal Ripken, Jim Palmer and I could name names all night. Suppose I need to read a book on the real story here because it does not seem normal even in a tanking era.
MLB forced the Os to share their market with the Nationals. That’s what happened.
That, and truly dysfunctional ownership that held the team back for over a decade by refusing to update their player development infrastructure, their refusal to embrace analytics, and making it a strategy to actively ignore the international market.
Everyone who complains about the current rebuilding Orioles only has to look at the 14-year stretch of mediocrity where they never undertook a total rebuild and kept trying to retool. And kept rolling out mediocre teams.
Or look at 2018 when they did what everyone wanted them to do, and held on to aging vets too long, spent foolishly on free agents that didn’t pan out, and waited entirely too long to trade the talent they had for any real prospects.
Both of those scenarios are *exactly* what the anti-tankers want a team to do instead of just letting the team tear it all down to the studs and rebuild.
What you wind up with is a bunch of mediocre teams in the middle who don’t actually have much of a chance of winning. Which is exactly what MLB looks like right now.
At least the Orioles put themselves on a path in 2019 to fix the entire organization, top-to-bottom, and have made serious headway in a lot of those goals. They now have one of the top ranked farm systems (after being ranked near the bottom when the 2018 team collapsed) and are about to graduate some very promising talent to MLB this coming season.
A friend may admonish and correct a friend, not laugh at them, cut them out of their lives forever… they correct.and offer advice and help.
A friend tells you, you’ve got a booger hanging out of your nose, not sit there and laugh.at you or call you gross or insult you in front of others, they alert you and offer a tissue…..
I am a friend not a hater. You would know it if I despised you because the Superfife is an honest man.
The Nationals are the one team Boras should not F*** around with. They have pulled his nuts out of the fire so many times. When he held out with Raphael Soriano far too long years ago they bailed him out. Same with Stephen Drew. When he tried to play teams against themselves with Scherzer back in 2015 and they all called his bluff Rizzo saved him with a megadeal that probably wasn’t necessary. Same with Strasburg more than once. The Nationals are the only team left that puts up with his nonsense. He burned too many others like Detroit with the Fielder deal, the Yankees with the Ellsbury deal and Boston with several worthless contracts. Soto will get a huge deal but Boras needs to avoid holding their feet to the fire for every last dime they have. Cause when the Nats are no longer bailing him out he will start having more and more players waiting for contracts deep into the season.
Ok, suppose that I propose a Soto contract extension of 11 additional years at 35 million per year, no opt outs, full no trade clause until the last season, and no team or player options. Who says no? Nationals or Soto?