Much of fans’ time during the lockout is spent playing armchair general manager and looking at ways to address their teams’ perceived needs — whether it be blockbuster trades, free-agent mega-deals, or under-the-radar value plays. There’s probably more focus on those first two, but we’ve already taken pretty lengthy looks at the top free agents and the top trade candidates who could change hands throughout the offseason here at MLBTR. As such, my own focus has turned to some of the lesser-heralded free agents who probably deserve a bit more love than they’ve gotten to this point in the winter. In the case of Brad Miller, his lack of appreciation probably pre-dates the current offseason.
Over the past three years, Miller has played on a one-year, $1MM deal in Cleveland, a one-year, $2.5MM deal in St. Louis and a one-year, $3.5MM deal in Philadelphia. Those three teams have guaranteed a combined $7MM to Miller and received 40 home runs through 718 plate appearances, with an overall batting line of .236/.331/.480. Obviously, the batting average isn’t ideal, but the leaguewide average during that time is .248 (or .251 excluding pitchers). Miller hasn’t been that much below par in terms of his batting average, and he’s above average in terms of on-base percentage and, particularly, in his power output.
This isn’t to say Miller should be lumped into the mix of most appealing free-agent bats available. He’ll play the coming season at age 32, making him older than the market’s high-profile names, and his skill set has obvious flaws. We’ll get those out of the way first.
Miller’s lefty bat has been a nonfactor against southpaw pitchers, evidenced by a .168/.230/.336 output over the past three seasons. He’s punched out in nearly 38% of his plate appearances when facing same-handed opponents. It’s not a new phenomenon, as Miller’s career numbers indicate, but his struggles against lefties have increased in recent years, even as his output against righties has improved.
Defensively, Miller is something of a man without a position. His days as a shortstop early in his big league career never yielded strong ratings from metrics like Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating. More rudimentary marks like fielding percentage and his error totals agreed that Miller probably wasn’t well-suited as an everyday shortstop. That’s all the more true as he trends toward his mid-30s. Miller has seen plenty of action at first base, second base, third base and in the outfield corners over the past few seasons; his best statistical showings in those relatively small samples have come at second base and in left field. He’s not a premium defender anywhere, but Miller can capably handle those two spots and fill in as needed around the diamond.
Setting aside those noted deficiencies, there’s one thing thing Miller also does quite well: mash right-handed pitching. Over the past three years, Miller has hit .251/.352/.512 against right-handed pitchers — good for a 127 wRC+ that ranks 47th among the 321 hitters who’ve tallied at least 400 plate appearances (that is to say, he’s been about 27% better than the league-average hitter). At least against right-handed pitching, that wRC+ puts him alongside heavy-hitting names like Jose Ramirez (126), Carlos Correa (126) and Marcus Semien (129). Miller obviously isn’t as good overall as anyone in that trio, and it’s not realistic to shield him from left-handed opponents entirely over the course of a season. Nevertheless, the damage he offers against right-handed pitching is real.
The productivity when holding the platoon advantage doesn’t appear fluky in nature, either. Miller has walked in 12.9% of his plate appearances against a more defensible 26.3% strikeout rate. His .293 average on balls in play doesn’t scream for regression. A quarter of his fly-balls against righties have left the yard, which is a strong mark — 19th among that previous subset of 321 hitters, right alongside George Springer and Nelson Cruz — but not so lofty that one should expect it to come crashing back down in a major way.
Moreover, the general quality of Miller’s contact is excellent. His 2021 percentile ranks in average exit velocity (91st), max exit velocity (91st), hard-hit rate (84th) and barrel rate (80th) all stand out. He’s also above average in terms of sprint speed (62nd percentile) and in his ability to lay off pitches outside the strike zone (71st percentile both in 2021 and in 2020). Miller’s contact rate on pitches in the zone is a good bit shy of the league average (about five percentage points), but he’s not going to get himself out too often by flailing at pitches off the plate.
Miller’s flaws are easy to see, and again, the point of this certainly isn’t to suggest he will or should be paid along the same lines as Kyle Schwarber, who just put up a fireworks display for the ages when healthy in 2021. But Miller’s .251/.352/.512 slash against righties over the past three seasons is a whole lot closer to Schwarber’s .247/.348/.555 slash against righties in that same time than their eventual price tags will suggest, and Miller has actually been a much better hitter against righties than free agents like Joc Pederson and Eddie Rosario in recent seasons. Fans looking for left-handed bats might not have Miller high on their wishlist, but when used properly, his production is closer to some of the bigger names than most would expect. Whether the market will treat him as such this time around is yet to be determined, but the forthcoming addition of a universal designated hitter won’t hurt his stock.
He has sneaky power, but I wouldn’t say he’s a slugger at all. He could certainly help a good team, though.
40 HR in 718 PA says slugger to me.
Could he help a bad team?
Help them do what?
Sounds like a Giant already to me.
I was thinking the other side of the bay but I could see him getting a shot for a month on the Giants to prove he can contribute.
I was thinking their rivals down in Chavez ravine
I swear every home run Miller hit last season was a no-doubter. 10-12 rows deep every time. Nothing just over the wall…
good as a bench bat. last year proved he cant be a regular starter though.
Not at all. Man that defense was tough to watch.
Miller could be an excellent addition to the Red Sox backing up at second base and platooning at first with Dalbec against certain right handed pitchers.
If Brad Miller is a slugger than Cesar Valdez is a power pitcher
40 HR in 718 PA seems like a slugger to me.
He has value with the bat, but anyone who’s ever watched Miller knows that he’s a complete catastrophe with the glove; doesn’t matter where he plays. Not a bad back up as long as the money isn’t too expensive. The dollar value between his offensive contribution probably exceeds Schwarber( another butcher), who’s going to cost more in terms of dollars and length.
Article reads like a Craigslist ad trying to sell me a Brad Miller
What’s the category? M4BradMiller
He strikes out way to much for his AB’s.
Sluggers do tend to strike out a lot.
So he’d be a great pinch hitter vs a rhp is what you’re saying
Miller would be a very good DH with very limited time on the field. Wouldn’t call him versatile because his glove is so bad but he’ll make some team glad they snatched him up.
Certainly won’t be Cleveland.
yeah that was a bad breakup there.
He will resign with the Phils no doubt
They might have mentioned during these times of contract strife that his 1 million dollar salary with Cleveland in 2019 was never realized. He was released in May before his contract became guaranteed and he blasted the Indians — with good reason considering their offensive firepower at the time — for not doing their best to put the best team on the field. He was right, they should have kept him. He gives a lot of bang for the buck.
If the Sox solve their hole in RF with say, Conforto, I wouldn’t be opposed to him platooning at 2B with Leury. Leury has hit better against lefties than righties in his career and Miller can’t hit lefties. Would work for me in the 9-spot. Against righties: Anderson SS, Robert CF, Grandal C (S), Abreu 1B, Conforto RF (L), Eloy LF, Moncada 3B (S), Vaughn DH, Miller (L)/Leury (S) 2B looks good to me.
How is he as a teammate though? That could be a side benefit, assuming he’s not a dbag.
He’s a league average power hitter with no other value. He’s Chris Carter 2.0. You’re better off finding a guy who hits for less power, closer to overall league average and has some plus defensive capabilities.
He’s Joey Gallo without the defensive value.
He’s 27% better than league average against righties though….You’re comparisons are pretty bad.
You’re mixed big stats. League average is vs all pitching. An average hitter is going to be better if you only consider the at bats vs certain handed pitching. In effect, a 127 OPS+ IS league average for a lefty vs righties.
“Armchair GM” is a diplomatic way to say ROSTERBUATION
If you give him a right handed platoon role at third somewhere he could hit 25-30 bombs in 450 AB
Miller plays several positions, arguably not well at any of them, but is versatile enough and does have power that a number of teams could give him a look. Someone mentioned the Red Sox, the A’s, the Giants, the Dodgers. The Yankees are fit, so could be the Braves. Really any team could use him
Orioles all the way.
Bora$ wants a 12 year $350 mill contract for this player. hence a lockout.
I think there’s a significant chance the Phillies resign Bamboo Brad, as he’s a real solid bench piece.
Brad Miller hit a Bomb once every 24.82 of his at bats over the course of his career….. Ahead of some guys like Yelich and Rendon….. That is 49th among all active players today…. It looks like league avg. for a stat like that is 28.2…. So he is at least above league average when it comes to HR’s per AB…..
Off the bench bat for a contender at best. He definitely can be very useful for a few teams.
Interesting stat…. Just for some context….. I found this interesting….Look at some of the names on the list….
1. Giancarlo Stanton 13.95
2. Mike Trout 15.02
3. Khris Davis 15.36
4. Nelson Cruz 15.39
5. Albert Pujols 16.37
6. Bryce Harper 17.07
7. George Springer 17.28
8. Josh Donaldson 17.45
9. Nolan Arenado 17.51
10. Trevor Story 17.86
11. J.D. Martinez 17.87
12. Eugenio Suarez 18.24
13. Yasmani Grandal 18.80
14. José Abreu 19.09
15. Paul Goldschmidt 19.16
16. Miguel Cabrera 19.17
17. Randal Grichuk 19.41
18. C.J. Cron 19.43
19. Kris Bryant 19.68
20. Todd Frazier 20.15
21. Manny Machado 20.30
22. Joey Votto 20.31
23. Anthony Rizzo 20.37
24. Javier Baez 20.40
25. Justin Upton 20.60
26. Carlos Correa 21.23
27. Freddie Freeman 21.28
28. Evan Longoria 21.54
Salvador Perez 21.54
30. Rougned Odor 21.61
31. Jose Ramirez 21.75
32. Mookie Betts 21.84
33. Mitch Moreland 21.89
34. Jonathan Schoop 22.71
35. Francisco Lindor 22.73
Mike Moustakas 22.73
37. Carlos Santana 22.77
38. Marcell Ozuna 22.84
39. Eddie Rosario 22.86
40. Ryan Zimmerman 23.43
41. Wil Myers 23.55
42. Logan Morrison 23.79
43. Andrew McCutchen 24.15
44. Kole Calhoun 24.24
45. Maikel Franco 24.28
46. Nick Castellanos 24.46
47. Marcus Semien 24.49
48. Brandon Belt 24.77
49. Brad Miller 24.82
50. Matt Joyce 24.95
Also….. Schwarber didn’t have enough at bats to qualify for this list….. but he would be 2nd of all active players with 14.4 just for reference…. Juan Soto sits at 16.40 currently….
Thanks for the interesting list. May use it as one more piece of info for my fantasy draft – assuming we have a season in 2022. The majority of the dudes on this list have signed mega contracts in their careers.
I agree @ BudgetBall…. I got 2 guys who quit my fantasy league just last week because they are so frustrated… 14 year league… these guys are walking away… I am still doing my fantasy stuff as if there will be a season… but I understand their frustrations… and stats like this keep me away from going crazy when there is no real baseball…. something to look at and learn if nothing else…..
Cubs.
4 of ’em….
Power is always alluring. He’ll likely be offered a platoon position on a non-contender. NL DH certainly helps his chances
You’ll have to excuse my friend (MLB Off-season), he’s a little slow.
In the description of Miller trending towards his mid-30s I find hope that some day we might be able to stop or even reverse the getting older trend.
Mariners? Full circle
Did Brad Miller’s agent request this be written? If i had one word to describe his talents, it would be ‘meh’. Sure he can hit bombs whens hes on a hot streak, but it felt they were during meaningless low stress situations. Some players just perform better when their team is horrible and their is no demand to get clutch hits. 1-3 mil AAV is his worth, but it is no bargain. A club would be better served giving his at bats to a younger player who has real potential for your team. Bargain basement finds should stay in the basement of the league(ie: pirates, orioles, oakland, miami).
The Cardinals should of resigned him last year, would be a great DH for them this year.