In recent days, MLBTR has taken a look at some players who could find themselves on the move between the conclusion of the lockout and the start of the season. First, Tim Dierkes looked at the league’s 14 likeliest trade candidates. Steve Adams then ran through some impact players who, to varying degrees, could find themselves in trade rumors whenever transactions resume.
Today we’ll look at other regulars who we could envision changing uniforms in the relatively near future. Acquiring any of the players on today’s list wouldn’t be quite as splashy as landing the stars we covered last week, but it’s easy to envision any one of them assuming an important, regular role on a new team.
Before we get into the list, a quick note on methodology. In defining “plausible” trade candidates, we looked at players we felt had somewhere between a 20% and 50% chance of being dealt before the start of the season. It’s not meant to be an exhaustive list of trade possibilities — almost any player around the league could theoretically move if another team made the right offer — but it’s meant to capture a tier of regulars we wouldn’t be surprised to see change hands. In an exercise of this nature, there has to be a somewhat arbitrary line that delineates the last of the players who, in our view, are “plausible” trade candidates. Players like Gary Sánchez and Jesús Aguilar were discussed internally but fell just on the other side of that line.
Now, on to the list. The players are ordered by what we feel to be their likelihood of getting traded (all arbitration projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz):
John Means, Orioles SP
Buster Olney of ESPN reported in November that the Orioles were “dangling” Means in trade talks. Baltimore’s rebuilding and seemingly amenable to offers on anyone on the roster, but it remains to be seen how actively they’ll push to make their top starting pitcher available. With Means controllable through 2024 and projected for a modest $3.1MM salary, the O’s needn’t force a deal this offseason.
The 28-year-old presents a tricky evaluation for teams. He got off to an excellent start to the season, posting a 2.28 ERA (albeit with a 4.20 FIP) through his first 71 innings. Means then landed on the injured list with a shoulder strain. After returning in July, he posted a 4.88 ERA down the stretch, watching his strikeout rate tumble almost six percentage points in the process. The medical evaluation will be critical, but teams that are comfortable with the state of Means’ shoulder moving forward might expect him to regain the strong mid-rotation form he showed early in the year.
Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Rangers SS/3B
Kiner-Falefa has been a solid regular for the Rangers for the past couple seasons. He spent 2020 at third base, then was tasked with moving up the defensive spectrum to shortstop last year. Defensive Runs Saved loved his glovework at short; Statcast’s Outs Above Average did not. Kiner-Falefa finished third in the 2021 Fielding Bible shortstop award voting. There’s not much question he’s a very good defender at the hot corner, and most teams would probably at least feel comfortable with him moonlighting at shortstop if need be.
Texas remade their middle infield in free agency, signing Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. Kiner-Falefa could kick back to third base, but the Rangers have top prospect Josh Jung nearing big league readiness at the position. Controllable for two more seasons and projected for a $4.9MM salary, he could stick around as a utility guy. But if another team buys him as a plus defender at shortstop, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Texas ship him somewhere he can continue playing everyday. Kiner-Falefa’s .271/.312/.357 line fits better at the bottom of a lineup, but he brings good contact skills and a solid infield glove to the table. MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored the possibility of a Kiner-Falefa trade at greater length this afternoon.
Raimel Tapia, Rockies LF
Reports out of Denver have suggested the Rockies could look to move Tapia, projected for a $3.9MM salary in his second-to-last arbitration-eligible season. The Rox need to bolster an offense that was among the league’s worst last year, and they’re seemingly planning to make a splash in the corner outfield. That’d probably push Tapia — who’s spent almost his entire MLB career in left field — out of the everyday lineup.
Tapia has never hit at the level one would hope from an everyday left fielder. One could argue he’s better suited for a fourth outfield role regardless. He’s a plus runner with good bat-to-ball skills, though, and he ranked among Baseball America’s top 50 overall prospects back in 2017. It’s certainly not out of the question another team takes a flier on him, particularly if the Rockies are willing to take a minimal return after acquiring his replacement.
Chris Paddack, Padres SP
The pre-lockout agreement with Nick Martínez bumped a bunch of the Friars’ younger arms down a peg on the rotation depth chart. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently explored, that could pave the way for them to move one of their controllable starters. If they do, Paddack looks the likeliest of the bunch. He’s arbitration-eligible and projected for a $2.1MM salary. That’s certainly affordable, but the Padres could be looking to open some payroll space after exceeding the luxury tax threshold last year.
Paddack has had back-to-back down seasons after a promising rookie campaign. But he’s still only 26 years old, boasts pristine control, and teams can dream on him recapturing his 2019 form. That he’s controllable for three seasons could be of particular appeal to teams like the Rangers and Nationals (who expressed interest at last summer’s deadline) who might be eyeing 2023 as a more plausible contention year.
Ryan Yarbrough, Rays SP
Yarbrough has been a flexible member of the Rays pitching staff for the past few years. He’s worked variably as a traditional long reliever, a bulk man behind an opener and as a true starting pitcher. Yarbrough posted an ERA of 4.13 or lower in each of his first three seasons, but he scuffled to a 5.11 mark in 2021. That came without meaningful changes to his strikeout and walk numbers, though, and Yarbrough remained excellent at avoiding hard contact.
The Rays likely anticipate the southpaw will return to form, but his price is escalating. Tampa Bay is already projected for a franchise-record payroll, so it wouldn’t be surprising if they move some of their arbitration-eligible players for pre-arb or minor league talent. Yarbrough is projected for a $4.4MM salary and remains under team control through 2024.
Austin Meadows, Rays LF/DH
Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times wrote over the weekend that the Rays could be open to moving Meadows, who is projected for a $4.3MM salary. Controllable through 2024, Meadows would be a long-term option for Tampa Bay or any potential acquiring team, but the Rays have proven willing to field offers on almost anyone on the roster. And with the aforementioned payroll outlook for the typically low-spending club, the front office figures to be amenable to ways to pare back costs.
Meadows is coming off a decent season, in which he hit .234/.315/.458 with 27 homers over 591 plate appearances. That marked a bounceback from a below-average offensive showing during the shortened 2020 schedule, but it’s a fair bit shy of his career-best .291/.364/.558 line the season before that. Meadows isn’t a great defender, so he needs to mash to be a star. He did that in 2019, but he’s otherwise been a good-not-great hitter. That’s still a valuable player to have on hand, but unless the Rays anticipate him replicating his peak season this year, it’d be sensible to listen to offers.
Tony Kemp, Athletics 2B/LF
Kemp has bounced around the league a bit in recent seasons. He plays second base and left field, but advanced metrics have pegged him as a fringy defender at the keystone. Kemp doesn’t bring a ton of power to the table, and he’s already 30 years old. It’s not the easiest profile to make work, explaining why he has yet to find a long-term home.
There’s no questioning Kemp’s 2021 results, though. Over 397 plate appearances, he hit .279/.382/.418. Both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference pegged him as worth around three wins above replacement. Kemp has excellent plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills, and he could be trending towards a late-career emergence in the mold of former A’s second baseman Tommy La Stella. The market for teams on the hunt for second base help is pretty thin. Kemp, who avoided arbitration on a $2.25MM salary and is controllable through 2023, would be an affordable pickup if the A’s move him as part of their anticipated post-lockout efforts to trim payroll and reboot the roster.
Manuel Margot, Rays OF
MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently looked at the possibility of the Rays making Margot available. He’s projected for a $5MM arbitration salary as he enters his final year of club control. That’s a reasonable salary for a player of Margot’s caliber, but Tampa Bay has plenty of cheaper, controllable outfielders on hand, and top prospect Josh Lowe looks ready to step into an everyday role somewhere in the grass after a monster season in Triple-A.
It’s not out of the question Tampa trades away multiple outfielders, but if they move the more expensive Kevin Kiermaier, Margot sticking around to handle center field is certainly possible. The latter might have broader appeal around the league, though. Not only is he set to make around a third of Kiermaier’s remaining guarantees, Statcast credited Margot with a league-best +16 Outs Above Average in the outfield last year. He’s never been more than an average hitter, but acceptable offense coupled with Gold Glove caliber defense is a very valuable player. There’s also a dearth of center fielders available in free agency at this point.
Max Kepler, Twins OF
MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently broke down Kepler’s trade candidacy at great length. Guaranteed $16.25MM through 2023 and controllable for 2024 via club option, he’d be an affordable target for teams seeking outfield help. Yet Kepler’s offensive production has ticked down towards league average following what seemed to be a breakout showing in 2019. The Twins might prefer to hold onto him in hopes he rediscovers that form, but they just extended Byron Buxton and have former top prospects Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach in the fold as corner outfield options. A Kepler deal could be a creative way to address some of the team’s other issues in the starting rotation or at shortstop.
Danny Jansen/Alejandro Kirk, Blue Jays C
The Jays’ catching depth has been a topic of conversation throughout the offseason. Would Toronto part with one of their controllable backstops to land help in the rotation or infield? The signing of Kevin Gausman probably diminishes their need to land an impact starter via trade, although they’re likely to at least look for depth pieces.
Reese McGuire is a capable backup catcher who’s out of minor league options. Top prospect Gabriel Moreno is rapidly approaching and could be in the majors by the end of the season. Jansen offers a solid bend of power and defensive acumen, while Kirk has otherworldly bat-to-ball skills and an elite minor league track record. Toronto doesn’t have to move anyone from this group, but it could be an opportunity to consolidate their catching depth for help elsewhere on the roster.
Amed Rosario, Guardians SS/CF
Cleveland acquired Rosario from the Mets as part of the Francisco Lindor trade last offseason. His offensive numbers (.282/.321/.409) were fine, although neither Defensive Runs Saved nor Statcast was fond of his glovework at shortstop. Rosario’s aggressive approach at the plate will probably keep him from emerging as the star many envisioned he’d become as a prospect, but he has alright career hitting numbers, runs well and could be an option for teams at any of the up-the-middle positions on the diamond (aside from catcher).
The Guardians have a lot of infield depth, with several talented prospects in the high minors and already on the 40-man roster. With their seemingly annual need for outfield help, a Rosario trade could help balance the roster. Cleveland could also just give him more run in center or left field themselves, but it might be more straightforward to trade him to an infield-needy team with an outfield surplus. Rosario is projected for a $5MM salary and controllable through 2023.
Josh Bell, Nationals 1B
I covered Bell’s trade candidacy in greater length in late December. The Nationals are taking a step back in 2022, and he’s entering his final year of club control. A projected $10MM salary might scare away some suitors, but Bell would be a notable offensive upgrade for many teams around the league. The switch-hitter posted a .261/.347/.476 season-long mark, and he had an excellent 277/.381/.506 line with more walks than strikeouts after the All-Star Break.
Garrett Cooper, Marlins 1B/COF
Cooper has looked like a viable trade candidate for a few seasons. He’s part of a corner outfield/first base rotation in Miami that got a bit more crowded when the Fish signed Avisaíl García. The Marlins have suggested they could use García as their regular center fielder, but that’s less than ideal. If they land a center fielder after the lockout and push García to a more suitable right field role, Cooper might find himself squeezed for playing time.
A late bloomer, Cooper’s already 31 years old. He has quietly been a very productive hitter when healthy, though, including an excellent .284/.371/.478 line (133 wRC+) in 383 plate appearances since the start of 2020. Health is a big caveat for Cooper, who has had stints on the injured list in all five of his MLB seasons and missed the second half of last year with a left elbow injury. As MLBTR’s TC Zencka explored in December, he’d returned to taking batting practice and figures to be ready for 2022. Projected for a modest $3MM salary with an additional season of control thereafter, he could be an interesting flier, particularly for NL teams looking to add offense if/when the universal designated hitter is finalized.
Anthony Santander, Orioles RF/LF
Santander’s name has been floated around the rumor mill in years past. The Orioles are rebuilding, and he’s more of a complimentary piece than a likely member of the long-term core. Santander is limited to the corner outfield and has a very aggressive approach, though, making it crucial he makes plenty of contact and hits for power. He did that in the shortened 2020 season en route to a .261/.315/.575 line, but he couldn’t follow up on that success.
Last season, Santander had a couple injured list stints and struggled to a .241/.286/.433 mark. He signed for $3.15MM to avoid arbitration in November and remains controllable through 2024. Given their competitive window, the O’s would certainly listen to offers on Santander. But it remains to be seen whether there’ll be sufficient demand that Baltimore wouldn’t be better off hanging onto him and hoping he approximates his 2020 performance over the first few months of next season. MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald recently explored Santander’s trade candidacy in greater depth.
Zach Plesac, Guardians SP
Plesac isn’t yet arbitration eligible and he’s controllable for another four seasons. The Guardians might simply prefer to hang onto him, particularly after their 2021 season was derailed by rotation injuries. Yet as mentioned with regards to Rosario, Cleveland has significant concerns in the outfield. They’ve dealt key starting pitchers over the past couple seasons, seemingly confident in their ability to continue to develop less-heralded prospects into capable rotation cogs.
If they were to deal a starter, Plesac would seem the likeliest candidate. The Guardians aren’t about to rebuild, and moving Shane Bieber or Aaron Civale might be too significant a blow to their hopes of contending in 2022. Triston McKenzie and Cal Quantrill might still have upside Cleveland’s hoping to unlock. Plesac’s small sample excellence in 2020 was probably inflated by a regional schedule against Central-division teams that, by and large, weren’t good offensively. That season aside, he hasn’t posted particularly impressive strikeout rates. But he’s got excellent control, gets a decent number of grounders, and should be a solid bet for league average rotation innings over the next few seasons.
Merrill Kelly, Diamondbacks SP
The D-Backs were the worst team in the National League last season. They don’t seem to have the appetite for a full rebuild, but Kelly’s entering his final year of club control. At age 33, he’s probably not an extension candidate, so Arizona figures to be open to moving him.
Kelly’s not an overpowering arm. He posted a 4.44 ERA over 158 innings last season, striking out only 19.5% of batters faced. He throws plenty of strikes, though, and he gets a decent number of grounders. Playing on a modest $5.25MM salary, Kelly would be an eminently affordable pickup for contenders looking to stabilize the back of the rotation.
Mitch Garver/Ryan Jeffers, Twins C
Garver missed a good chunk of last season after suffering a gruesome injury. During his 243 plate appearances, he mashed at a .256/.358/.517 clip with 13 home runs (137 wRC+). That’s two of the past three seasons with some of the best offensive output of any catcher in baseball. He’s controllable for two seasons and projected for a modest $3.1MM salary. Jeffers hasn’t yet hit arbitration-eligibility and still has minor league options remaining. He struck out too often as a rookie, but he hit for power and is a well-regarded defender who entered the year among the sport’s top catching prospects.
As with Kepler, a trade of Garver or Jeffers would probably be about dealing from an area of surplus to address the rotation or shortstop. Both players could plausibly be regular catchers next season, and they’d lose some of their value if penciled into the DH role regularly. Given Garver’s injury troubles, Minnesota might prefer to hold their depth behind the dish.
Elieser Hernández, Marlins SP
The Marlins have reportedly fielded offers on their arbitration-eligible starting pitchers this winter, perhaps in search of controllable outfield help. Miami already thinned their rotation depth a bit by including Zach Thompson in the Jacob Stallings deal, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if they make one more move in that vein.
Over the past two years, Hernández owns a 3.84 ERA in 77 1/3 innings with very strong strikeout and walk rates (26.3% and 5.7%, respectively). He’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher who’s likely to always have some difficulty keeping the ball in the yard. He missed most of 2021 recovering from a pair of long-term injuries (biceps inflammation and a quad strain). Because of those drawbacks, he won’t be in as much demand as rotation mate Pablo López. Yet another team may try to take a shot on Hernández’s promising strikeout/walk profile, particularly since he’s only projected for a $1.4MM salary and controllable through 2024.
Chris Stratton, Pirates RP
I covered Stratton’s trade candidacy at greater length in December. He’s a 31-year-old reliever controllable for two seasons on a rebuilding team. The Bucs aren’t going to view him as a core piece of the rebuild, and it stands to reason they’d welcome the opportunity to pick up an intriguing low-level prospect. Over the past two seasons, Stratton has been the kind of capable if unexciting middle relief piece contending teams need. He won’t bring back a franchise-changing return, but at a projected $2.2MM salary, he should draw some interest.
Cole Sulser, Orioles RP
Sulser had a quietly strong second half with the Orioles, occasionally factoring into their closing mix. A late bloomer, he’ll be 32 by Opening Day. So while they’re under no contractual pressure to move him, the rebuilding O’s would certainly listen to offers. After putting up a 2.70 ERA with a 28.4% strikeout rate, he should be of interest to contenders. Sulser isn’t yet arbitration eligible and can be controlled through 2025.
Adrian Houser/Eric Lauer, Brewers SP
The Brewers certainly aren’t obligated to trade either of Houser or Lauer, both of whom are coming off strong seasons. Still, the Brew Crew already have a vaunted top three of Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta and prospects Aaron Ashby and Ethan Small are at or nearing the big leagues. Might Milwaukee plug one of the younger arms into the rotation and flip a veteran back-end starter for offensive help?
Adalberto Mondesi, Royals 3B/SS
Mondesi’s an enigmatic player. He brings an enviable combination of power and speed and has enough athleticism to play a competent or better shortstop. He also has among the worst strikeout and walk numbers of any regular position player in MLB. Perhaps most alarming, he’s dealt with enough injury issues in recent years that Royals president of baseball operations Dayton Moore expressed some doubt about his ability to play more than 100 games per season regularly.
Nicky Lopez played well enough to supplant Mondesi at shortstop last year. Bobby Witt Jr. will probably take that position early in 2022, pushing Lopez somewhere else on the dirt. Whit Merrifield is still around as a second base option. Kansas City might have enough infield depth to explore a Mondesi trade, although it’d be a bit of a sell-low on a player with obvious physical gifts who’s controllable through 2023. He’s projected for a $3.2MM salary.
Kyle Hendricks, Cubs SP
Hendricks is guaranteed $29.5MM through the next two seasons, with a vesting option that could keep him in Chicago through 2024. The Cubs have moved most of their core players dating back to last offseason, but Hendricks remains on the North Side. That might be attributable to some uncharacteristic struggles, as the righty’s coming off a career-worst 4.77 ERA with unimpressive peripherals.
Hendricks has never struck batters out or fared exceptionally well in the eyes of ERA estimators, though. Until last season, his actual run prevention handily outperformed metrics like FIP and SIERA as he thrived on exceptional command. He’ll probably bounce back, even if he may never recapture his Cy Young-caliber, 2.13 ERA form from 2016. With the amount of teams on the hunt for starting pitching, there’d no doubt still be demand if the Cubs made Hendricks available. Will they? Perhaps, since they’re not likely to compete in 2022. Yet their early-offseason activity — signing Yan Gomes and Marcus Stroman, claiming Wade Miley — has suggested they may not be keen to punt next season entirely.
Trey Mancini, Orioles 1B
The Orioles aren’t going to compete in 2022, and Mancini is ticketed for free agency at the end of the year. Most players in his situation would be very straightforward trade candidates, but the first baseman is a fan favorite and reported clubhouse leader who made an inspiring return to the diamond last year after missing the 2020 campaign battling colon cancer.
That Mancini returned to play in 147 games after facing that kind of life obstacle is a remarkable achievement. It’s undeniable, though, that his production slipped relative to his excellent 2019 campaign. Mancini’s .255/.326/.432 line was only marginally above average, and he played exclusively first base and designated hitter. It certainly wouldn’t be surprising to see him bounce back into a middle-of-the-order presence as he gets further away from beating cancer, but demand for his services might be limited until his production rebounds. If that’s the case, it’s probably not worth it for the O’s to trade him away this offseason. He’s projected for a $7.9MM salary, but Balitmore’s 2022 payroll ledger is wide open.
Deleted Userr
So Preller got the most heat for forgoing the extra control in Tatis’ case. But in the end, Paddack and especially Cronenworth are the situations that are going to end up burning the team.
CNichols
How is Cronenworth going to end up burning the team? He’s pre-arb and cost controlled
Deleted Userr
Because they would control him for 2026 if they had waited 6 days to call him up at the start of his rookie season.
Cosmo2
Losing one year of control over that particular player “burns” the team? That’s a bit harsh.
Deleted Userr
@Cosmo2 If the player is any good then yes.
elmedius
May not matter if the lockout ever ends. That kind of thinking is part of what the players want to put an end to, correct?
Ha-Seong Kim
@Harambe
Yes, it may have been wise in hindsight to keep Cronenworth down, but there are a few things you have to consider.
A) 2020 was a 60 game season in which the pads had high hopes of contention and every game was crucial.
B) Albeit he had good numbers in the minors, he wasn’t considered a cant miss prospect. Nobody foresaw him becoming the stud he is today.
C) Cronenworth seems to love Slam Diego and I’d bet he signs an extension at a slight hometown discount (Would he feel the same had he been kept down? Perhaps, but maybe they would’ve kept him down longer and maybe he would have not broken out like he did in the short season.)
Deleted Userr
@Ha-Seong Kim…
1) 6 games of Cronenworth would not have made the difference between the Padres making and missing the postseason in 2020.
2) No player who is even just “OK” should ever finish a season with x.000 years of service time tbh.
3) Had the Padres gotten the extra year of Crone they would already control him through his age 32 season. No extension needed.
4) You have no evidence to back up your theory that Cronenworth wouldn’t have broken out the way he did if they kept him down for the first 6 days of 2020. None.
Ha-Seong Kim
@Harambe
I’m surprised the Padres haven’t signed you to be their new rockstar GM with all your hindsight
CHS O'sFan
Exactly why the players need to get something in place to prevent service time manipulation. Fans even want it to happen because it benefits their team to have the players for longer. The players need to stop the table from being tilted in the owners favor forever and once they get what they need, I’ll be here as a fan.
Vladatatat 2
1. 6 games in 2020 was 10% of the season. You don’t think losing a player like him for 10% of the season would skew results? That is a bold comment.
2. That is a matter of ethics to some people and exactly what the MLBPA is trying to stop.
3. Correct
4. You have no proof to back up your assertion that 6 days without Cronenworth would’ve have cost them a playoff spot.
I, personally, admire teams that don’t screw players over and I think it establishes trust and makes the franchise appeal to top prospects (especially international ones).
Fever Pitch Guy
I agree with the poster who suggested any player that plays at least 81 games in his first ML season should automatically be credited with a year of service time.
I’m not taking any side in this labor dispute, but in this instance I’m against teams keeping players in the minors to squeeze another year of team control.
Deleted Userr
@Ha-Seong Kim Stop that. You’re not good at it.
Deleted Userr
@Vladatatat 2…
1. Yeah? It’s always about 10% of the season the player has to miss. It’s never skewed results in the past and it wouldn’t this time. Padres were 6 wins ahead of the 5-seed in 2020. Losing Crone for 6 days wasn’t going to make THAT big of a difference.
2. Ethics don’t win games. Good players do.
3. As per usual.
4. He was worth 1.4 WAR in 2020. So losing Crone for 6 games costs the Padres 1 win in 2020 at most. Wouldn’t have even pushed them below the Cardinals for the 5-seed let alone meant they miss the playoffs entirely.
“I, personally, admire teams that don’t screw players over and I think it establishes trust and makes the franchise appeal to top prospects (especially international ones).”
I know some fans like to think this but it’s literally not true. Teams that manipulate service time have no issue doing those things.
Deleted Userr
@FPG That just means if a player is close to 81 games in his first MLB season teams will move Heaven and Earth to make sure he gets no more than 80.
Fever Pitch Guy
harambe – I believe the half-season requirement would act as a deterrent. There’s a big difference between keeping a player down in the minors a few weeks to start the season, and keeping him down for three months.
Also just to show another example of how unethical ML teams have been, just prior to the 2014 season the Astros offered 24-year-old George Springer a 7-year $23M contract. He had to decide between accepting it and playing in the majors immediately, or rejecting it and getting demoted to the minors.
He rejected it, and was immediately demoted. Then, of course, after playing just 13 games in the minors he was called up a few weeks later on April 14th.
I think putting an end to this sort of gaming the system is the most reasonable MLBPA ask, and they shouldn’t back down on this. No player should be forced to stay under team control for nearly 7 big league seasons.
Vladatatat 2
1. Again.. this is all hindsight. They had no idea how many games not having their best second baseman would cost them. They decided that having their best team on the field was worth more than screwing a guy over a whole year for 6 days.
2. Lol.. you know what else wins games? Cheating, steroids, murdering the young of your enemy.. are you pretending that no ethical considerations should ever be considered. That is a weird thing to say.
3. Lol
4. Fair enough on the math. It doesn’t prove anything, but it isn’t as bad a take as the “who needs ethics when you can win” argument.
Literally hey? So you don’t think a team that doesn’t manipulate the service time of their players has an edge over a team that does when they are negotiating with top prospects? You make these arguments with a lot of confidence.. that’s a red flag to me.
Deleted Userr
@FPG Well OBVIOUSLY they’re not going to wait half a year to call the guy up, DUH!
But if they decide a player is genuinely ready in like June, absolutely they’ll wait the month or less to get that extra year just like they do now.
Deleted Userr
@Vladatatat 2…
1. Yes and they were wrong. Horribly horribly wrong. Not even Mike Trout is winning you 6 extra games in a 60 game season.
2. Yeah. That’s what I’m saying. Players and their agents aren’t above doing shady, unethical stuff to gain an advantage either.
3. Thank you for laughing at the truth, even though it wasn’t meant to be humorous.
4. Another win for me and another loss for you.
5. Do you have any empirical evidence of this being true? If not then save your breath. Plenty of players who didn’t have their service times manipulated went to free agency. And plenty who were manipulated signed team friendly extensions.
Fever Pitch Guy
harambe – There will always be different types of cutoffs that players won’t like.
Look at Christian Vazquez, he lost a million dollar bonus by just 4 PA’s!
I think it’s a much more bitter pill to swallow if you get another year of team control tacked on because of the first two weeks in April, as opposed to the first two weeks in July.
A player really doesn’t deserve free agency after just 5 1/2 years of team control.
But he sure as heck deserves free agency after 5 11/12th years of team control.
Deleted Userr
@FPG it isn’t about deserving or not deserving.
Vladatatat 2
This will be my last reply because I think you may be 12 or something and I don’t like arguing with kids.
1. The 6 game deficit is hindsight. Your whole opinion is based on hindsight. You should look that word up.
2. That is sociopathic, but if that is the way you feel then okay.. lol
3. LOL! Is this how you actually converse with other people?
4. That really isn’t how math works, you know. But being in grade 8 you probably don’t know that. There is really n way to know beforehand what having a player of that caliber out of the lineup for 10% of a season could bring. The fact that you tried to figure it out with WAR was commendable, but like I said.. that’s not how WAR works at all.
5. You made the claim.. back it up. Who has signed team friendly extensions after having their service time manipulated? Show me your evidence. And just because players have done it in the past doesn’t mean it doesn’t affect how players will look at it in the future.
But hey, my dude.. you take victories wherever you can imagine them, okay.
Fever Pitch Guy
harambe – I’m not sure what your position is on the service time manipulation issue, what do you think is a better way to address it?
I’m just thinking of what’s most fair, if we agree that generally 6 years of team control is reasonable.
Awarding draft picks for Opening Day promotions is silly IMO, you’d end up with teams promoting a bunch of players too soon just to get the picks.
Deleted Userr
@FPG I am really not sure. I do know that if we set a hard date or # of games and a player is close to that number the team will ensure they fall below it, rather than above.
Deleted Userr
@Vladatatat 2 Well then you are indeterminately wrong about my age and even so I have met plenty of 12 year-olds who make more compelling arguments than you.
1. Not hindsight at all that one player alone will make up a 6-win deficit in 6p games.
2. Are you calling the players sociopathic now?
3. Yes.
4. No way to know for sure but you are arguing in favor of an outcome that is more than 4 standard deviations away from the norm.
5. Buster Posey and Ronald Acuña Jr. Now YOU provide an example of a player verifiably holding service time manipulation against the team.
And no, Kris Bryant isn’t am example.
JoeBrady
Fever Pitch Guy
harambe – I believe the half-season requirement would act as a deterrent.
==================================
The difference here is that I don’t expect teams to hold back players for 2-3 months, if they think the player is ready on April 1st. If you’re the guy back for a week, that’s a slamdunk.
That said, there will still be some manipulation. If Dalbec struggles, and Casas tears apart AAA, will still hold him back for a week if the new cut-off is 7/1.
JoeBrady
“who needs ethics when you can win”
===============================
Is it a matter of ethics or contracts? If a player under-performs their contract, do they ever give money back? No, because they have a contract. When Stroman stayed on DL in 2020, and then took the rest of the season off, just so he could earn his service time, it feels a little unethical, but he did what the rules allowed him to do.
Deleted Userr
@JoeBrady…
“The difference here is that I don’t expect teams to hold back players for 2-3 months…”
Nor do I. They don’t do it now either. If they decide the player is ready on, say, August 1st, he gets called up. It’s only when you get within maybe a month of the cutoff thar the value of the extra year of control starts to outweigh whatever you get from calling the player up right now.
“… it feels a little unethical, but he did what the rules allowed him to do.”
That’s exactly it! And I remember some Mets fans calling for them to file a grievance over it.
Pickles McGee
legendharumph, Don’t worry, if the owners don’t extract every last concession they feel entitled to this go-around, Preller can still take his petty revenge. Cronenworth has options remaining and I don’t believe he’d be lost if optioned to the minors for that golden week or so. The Padres would have that extra year and all would be right in America.
JoeBrady
That’s why I’m a rules guy. To me, it doesn’t matter if the rules/laws are right, or ethical, or anything else. What matters is that everyone agreed to them, and everyone knows what they are.
If you can accept that, then it doesn’t matter whether the owners or the players are the ones that benefit. And this happens in real life all the time. It doesn’t matter much if YOU think you’re getting a benefit that you don’t deserve. It only matters what the law says you deserve.
therealryan
There are teams who hold players back to miss super 2 and that generally means at least middle to end of June.
Deleted Userr
@Pickles McGee If he does that he will almost certainly get hit with a grievance. Huge difference between holding a guy down at the start of the season when he hasn’t made his major league debut yet and doing it when he’s already been in the majors for 2 seasons and shown that that’s where he belongs.
Lanidrac
The Padres had no way of knowing the results of the 2020 season in advance. For all they knew at the time, keeping him down for such a significant chunk of the shortened season very well could’ve cost them a playoff spot.
Fever Pitch Guy
Joe – I completely agree, there will always be manipulation. But if a player is held back the first two weeks of July and then gets called up, there’s less reason for the player to complain about being under team control for an extra 5/12th of a year as opposed to an extra 11/12th of a year.
Fever Pitch Guy
harambe – There’s one vital aspect you’re missing.
A player cannot get called up in June or July or August unless there’s an open position for him, which means there needs to be another guy removed from the active roster due to injury or trade or release etc.
And when do teams have the most open positions? During the offseason.
So a team is far more likely to promote a player at the start of a season, rather than in the middle. Which means there’s a far greater chance of manipulation in early April, than there is in early July.
Fever Pitch Guy
Joe – You’re 100% right! Hate the rules, not the rule followers.
Deleted Userr
@FPG But if a spot opens up due to injury or whatever less than a month before the service time cutoff you can best believe they will wait until the service time cutoff.
thechiguy
No argument from me for all the points made above…. but there is one team that has traditionally avoided bringing guys up in order to avoid Super Two status…They have a habit of bringing in guys over the summer as opposed to April… the Rays… Of course I am not accusing them of time manipulation…. but the way they do business it seems to just so happen that they rarely if ever have guys join the roster before midway through the season more than they ever bring in a guy right after they secure their extra year rights… This just seems to be the way they operate… I mean.. they traded for Austin Meadows….. he was up and down that season in Pittsburgh… They assigned him to AAA on Aug.1… He stayed on the farm all the way until it was 10 days left in the season…. Pretty sure that was to get him acclimated to their system…. but the Rays have avoided super two status with a huge number of their homegrown talent… even those they traded for who were on pace for super two status… If any team could get away with the half a season scenario… the Rays have evidence that they have done this regularly and have proof of it… and therefore could pull this off with no backlash from anyone…
Fever Pitch Guy
harambe – Every situation is different. If a team is in first place in late June and their starting shortstop gets injured and there’s no other viable option in the organization other than the top shortstop prospect in AAA who seems ready for the bigs, they will call up the top shortstop prospect.
If you’re talkin’ the Pirates or O’s, then yeah they would probably keep the guy in the minors a couple weeks. But they won’t keep him in the minors for three-four months after he’s ready, even if the team isn’t a contender.
Tigers3232
A player like Cron missing 10% of the season as a rookie wasn’t going to be the ultimate deciding factor. However a decision like that can definitely make the difference of 2 to 3 games which is huge any year let alone an abbreviated season. It also would have been extremely short sighted by the team to try and save a little $ on one future season with how much they already had invested in the rest of the roster. For rebuilding teams with low payroll manipulating service time makes sense. For a contender it is a different story, to invest $200+ million in a roster for a season and then try and save a few million down the road seems just silly.
Deleted Userr
@FPG Those teams already aren’t keeping guys down for three or four months to get the extra year. And if it’s a contending team and they only have to wait a couple weeks they can easily find other guys to fill in for those couple weeks until they get the extra year of control.
In the end, as long as there is a hard cutoff, you will continue to see players called up immediately after it and that will continue to be by design.
Deleted Userr
@Tigers3232…
1. 6 days of Cronenworth was never going to make a 2-3 win difference in the standings.
2. It isn’t about saving money. Service time and money are two completely different concepts. They aren’t going to have to pay Crone more money in 2026 because they didn’t manipulate service time. They are at risk of losing him entirely.
Deleted Userr
@Lanidrac It could have. Just like how keeping Bryant down in 2015 could have cost the Cubs a playoff spot and keeping Acuña down in 2018 could have cost the Braves a playoff spot. But they did it anyway. And look how well it worked out for them.
Please, Hammer. Don't hurt 'em.
I’ve never seen a series of rankings that suggests the reigning world champions will do so little. So the world champs won’t trade anyone. They probably won’t trade for anyone. They won’t sign anyone except for maybe keep one of their players and possibly sign an over the hill pitcher like Grienke? I’m not saying they are wrong and I know that’s not how they really ranking things. They know it’s impossible for all their rankings to work out and they have said that. Still… Has anyone ever seen a defending world champion who finished top 2 in attendance (and #1 in their division over the richest team in baseball that also happens to be located in New York City) end up predicted to be SO inactive?
Sid Bream Speed Demon
I think Freeman is a big reason why. Plus getting Acuna, Ozuna, and hopefully Soroka back is like making a huge deal or signing a two or three big FA’s.
Between returning injured players and the minors, the Braves don’t really have much work to do.
amk1920
Paddack is mediocre. His service time is irrelevant to what little value he has left.
Mystery Team
Was thinking the same thing. We have a case of bored writers.
Yankee Clipper
So, you’re saying we have a case of board writers reading bored writers?
Deleted Userr
@amk1920 If Paddack does get traded, let’s not pretend the Padres couldn’t get more for him if they were able to market him as a pitcher who is controlled through 2025 instead of just 2024.
JeffreyChungus
^Found Kevin Mather’s burner account
Cap & Crunch
Hmm why not just keep him down 2021 too? Shizz maybe 2022 as well really keep him locked up!
Cmon man, as much as I love gleaning thru ledgers and getting value the game is played on the field not a spreadsheet
Padres want to win, that’s NOT a bad thing
Deleted Userr
@Cap & Crunch Nice straw man.
Please, Hammer. Don't hurt 'em.
@legendary: I was going to say the same thing. Don’t forget, you were talking to a guy who made his profile picture of someone who got paid $392 million dollars to be worse than the 70th best player in baseball. That’s why some younger players aren’t making what they should. It’s hard to pay every player what they are worth when the 70th best player is making $392 million. Just do the math on that. If the 70th best player is worth almost $400 million then the top 70 players would need to be paid almost $28 billion. It’s not an exact science and the fact some underperformers make so much clearly makes it nessecary for other players to make less. Unless someone is dumb enough to think the top 70 players I’m baseba are worth $28 Billion.
Deleted Userr
Errr… what?
Cap & Crunch
It was a straw man argument you began with, there was nowhere else to go my friend
Hammer – Do you EVER make a point?
Mindless drivel is all you ever spew
Please, Hammer. Don't hurt 'em.
Trolls are zluts. My point was that the Dodgers paid Mookie Betts (the picture in dude’s profile picture) $392 million dollars and he immediately became the 70th best player in baseball. Since when is a player worth $392 million when there are 69 players better than him? On top of that… Players talk about other guys needing to make more money. That might be possible. If the 70th best player wasn’t on a $392 million contract. Or is someone else going to come up with a straw man conversation about why it’s okay to pay the 70th best player $392 million but other players should still be paid more?
Ha-Seong Kim
Harambe should change his name to captain hindsight
Vladatatat 2
I mean.. I have a realistic reason why it is okay the pay the 70th best player that much. It called “what the market sees your value at one specific point in time.”
When they signed him he was better than number number 70 and he could be top ten next year. Hindsight, unfortunately, only works in this industry for fans that like to discus baseball. It has no basis in every day operations though..
Deleted Userr
@Ha-Seong Kim Should change his name to Preller’s cheerleader.
amk1920
Ah yes, Mookie Betts ho was 2nd in MVP voting in 2020 and an all star in 2021 is the 70th best player in baseball
Deleted Userr
@FletcherFan69 What I’m saying is that Paddack having an extra year of control (basically a club option with a TBD dollar figure and no buyout) can’t hurt his trade value. And it can’t.
JoeBrady
Yup, especially on a player who might have encountered developmental issues. Past that, 4 is always better than 3.
Deleted Userr
@Cap & Crunch I’m not convinced you know what a straw man is.
knolln
you’re both morons. harambe less than you. but good lord.
SDHotDawg
Paddack IS mediocre. The league started to figure him out at the end of his rookie season, and he’s been going downhill since. If he doesn’t figure it out pretty soon, he’ll just be another “top prospect” who couldn’t cut it in the big leagues. As far as his current trade value goes it’s dropping by the day. Also, we have so little starting pitching depth, we really can’t afford to trade him.
Javia135
MikeEmbletonSmellsBad is that you?
leefieux
‘Could possibly’….that’s about as speculative as you can get, lol.
In nurse follars
No news, nothing to write about so we are reacting to styrofoam packing peanuts.
Stevil
Right? I mean, imagine a site with the word ‘rumors’ in the name being speculative with all the guarantees and certainty in baseball.
ohyeadam
Over under at 1.5 of these players traded before the season starts
Nagger
You cant trade half a player.
SDHotDawg
You don’t hnderstand how O/U works.
Rallyshirt
Can’t help but think Kepler might be the White Sox missing piece.
Cosmo2
The Mets sure did mis-read Rosario. The bat is pretty much what I expected but we were told that he brought a gold glove at SS. The transition from minor league hitting to the majors can be hard to predict but defense should pretty much carry over as is. The Mets really whiffed on their evaluation there.
seamaholic 2
Well someone misread him but it’s not the Mets, who traded him a year ago.
In nurse follars
And he was better than mr. frowns except for home runs.
Cosmo2
Well, for several years they seemed to be under the impression he was a totally different player than he is. I call that a mid-read. Plus, the trade the made may end up being not so great for them, we’ll see.
YourDreamGM
The Lindor trade wasn’t great for them. But not as bad as you would think. Salary and one prospect. Two players who they felt weren’t good enough to be their shortstop. And they could have replaced one prospect with the comp pick. The extension however was one of the worst contracts ever handed out.
Pete'sView
The first time I saw Rosario in person was his rookie year playing against the Rockies. I thought, this kid (with his glove and bat) is gonna be a standout. Wrong.
Yankee Clipper
Yankees misread Torres. It happens to the best of us, bro.
deweybelongsinthehall
I’d take Torres in a heart beat. The Yankees screwed with him moving him to short. He looked fine at the end of last year back at second.
Yankee Clipper
I agree Dewey. That was all on Cashman for not filling the role properly.
Flyby
hard to misread when that is the position he played pretty much exclusively in the minors.and rated as a top prospect. It just the team waited too long to move him off it
mlb1225
Maybe it was a mind thing, but it wasn’t just the Mets who viewed him as a good defensive SS. MLB Pipeline gave him a 65 grade for his fielding. FanGraphs gave him a 60-grade. When you get to 60+ you teter on the border of well above average, and low-end elite. If he would provide that Gold Glove defense at short like he did in the minors, he may still be the Mets’ shortstop. Any team would take the poor OBP if it meant they were getting a .280 hitter who gives you a dozen homers and stolen bases and premium defense at short.
Cosmo2
Oh yea, it was everyone. It wasn’t just the Mets. I always thought he was an overrated prospect but I figured the glove had to be as advertised. Oh well.
Yankee Clipper
Mlb1225: Reads like you just described a young Andrelton Simmons.
mlb1225
Only the difference being there’s a massive gap between Andrelton Simmons good defense, and premium defense.
knolln
he’s going to whiff way more than that. his .250/.350/490 is going to waaaay make up for it
Flyby
If you are talking about misreads look at Justin Turner. If only the mets kept him instead of just release him … not even a cash consideration
but cant completely knock them, who would have thought dickey would be a cy young winner.
sfes
Or that DeGrom would become the best pitcher of his generation save Kerahaw and Scherzer
gbs42
Every team misses on prospects from time to time. It’s the nature of the game.
Tdat1979
This is a make or break year for Mondesi. If he’s not healthy, he’s gone. When healthy he can be a very good player.
mister guy
zach plesac seems like a guy with too much baggage to risk giving anything up for.
stymeedone
I was surprised where they had Plesac listed. With 4 years of remaining control, the Guardians aren’t even going to listen to offers for a couple more years.
coolhandneil
Teams will always listen. Just depends on if they like what they hear.
YourDreamGM
I am sure they would listen on anyone.
CKinSTL
The thing is that the Guardians have a lot of cost controlled pitching and also more on the way
They need an impact bat/outfielder a lot more than they need Plesac. They certainly won’t give him away but I think he is a guy likely to get traded midseason. I like Plesac but if I had to trade one of their top 5 starters, it’d be Plesac.
Chris Koch
Adrian Houser is too good to trade away without a haul coming back. Kid is a stud relief pitcher while potentially rising in a #2SP role.
Lauer needs a longer history on the mound as a Brewer. His value has only gotten worse and you’re selling low on him. Don’t expect a trade with the lockout by Milwaukee. You are set with pitching and any normal season by Yelich solves the big hole in offense his fractured kneecap caused it to become.
MannyPineappleExpress9
Lauer pitched much better the second half of ’21. I know it’s a small sample size but it’s still better than if he went 1-5 with a 6.83 ERA, 16 HR allowed and 3x more walks than strikeouts. So maybe not selling quite as low as you think anyway.
As for the offense, more than Yelich coming out of his 2 year hibernation would be nice. Oh wait, they’ll have the DH. So both underachieving 1B can be in the lineup daily!
BarrelMan
Yeah I would definitely keep Houser and Lauer. Would be foolish to trade SPs. Maybe sign Nelson Cruz for some power.
Yankee Clipper
Houser was discussed as going back to the Yankees in exchange for Voit & upper – tier prospects.
Houser is a really interesting candidate and could be really useful on the Yankees pitching staff.
To be clear, this was a trade proposition based on the Brewer’s continued interest in Voit; I don’t envision this trade actually coming to fruition.
Mickey777
The Yankees have substantial lowered Voit’s value in the trade market. Not sure what they could get for him. If they adopt the universal DH that will increase his value some.
I would think that Kiner-Falafel would make a lot of sense at the right price. Has wonderful versatility. Wondering what you and Ducky think of him.
Chris Koch
Well you’re putting a name of offense with less team control in Kiner who wouldn’t be a starter in Milwaukee. Wong,Adames, and Urias. Shuts down the trade offer immediately.
Voit now that I see his stats and age? Hard pass. This is a guy who in a year is waiver wire fodder to pick up. Too expensive and well past prime. We do have Daniel Vogelbach that would be fitting.
Yankee Clipper
I like IKF, but honestly, if they go with a stopgap like him, they need to address 1B by getting Olson or Freeman to make up for the bat.
I would much rather they address SS by acquiring Story. I think they will need to overpay a bit for IKF’s services given the market.
Smartest Yankees moves going forward: Story & Olson, imo. Then address SP (Rodon). I don’t see them addressing CF or C this season, but that will be necessary in the coming years if they want to keep up with the AL.
daveineg
How would you be selling low on Lauer? He’s had 3 full seasons in the big leagues and 2021 was his best by far. Houser on the other hand is two years older than Lauer and has only one full season as a starter on his resume and his WAR per BR was slightly lower than Lauer’s in 2021.
Lauer and Houser were both solid major league starters on arguably the deepest rotation in the NL but the Brewers need offense and can’t count on Yelich returning to his MVP form.. His last great year was now 3 years ago. Both are entering their first year of arbitration. and are controllable for 3 more seasons. It’s a close call to who would bring more back in a trade, but either should be worth a player who can provide some punch to the lineup.
Chris Koch
Dave I guess you’re right in that stat wise Lauer had his best season. He must have finished strong as I dont remeber his numbers being lower. I do know he’s pitched less and fear his ceiling is 150Innings. Houser has such extreme ground ball weak hitting stats, that if he finds a wipe out pitch has far more ceiling. Peralta, Burnes Woodruff and Brewers pitching academy I feel in normal world this is Houser’s year to develope that. Dont see Lauer developing beyond where he has.
I guess where Im at is simply the type of bat Lauer bring back in trade isn’t one affecting the offense that already exists on Brewers. Tellez and Taylor type hoping to hold up.
Chris Koch
I did think of the 1 name Id trade Houser for straight up. Andrew Vaughn. Solving 1b on a team without a true 1b since Prince Fielder.
B-Strong
I want Ryan Yarbrough on the Red Sox just to see how hard it will be for Dennis Eckersly to not make fun of his fastball.
Memphis Kong
I would have thrown in Odorizi
Ha-Seong Kim
I really hope AJ isn’t reading this and getting any ideas but I can see it happening already.
Padres get:
Meadows
Glasnow
Throw-in
Rays get:
Campusano
Paddack
Throw-in
Pete'sView
I think the Rays say no, but not by a wide margin.
Ha-Seong Kim
Just makes too much sense lol
mp2891
Would depend on Paddock’s health, and whether the Rays view Campusano as a potential problem off the field (or in the clubhouse). Rays are a very young team and they won’t want to bring in a problem player, no matter how good he might be.
JoeBrady
I recommended a similar trade yesterday, but just Glasnow & Meadows for Campusano. But I think you are 100% that this would all be based on what TB thought of Campusano’s issues.
CrikesAlready
Anybody gets:
Hosmer
Campusano
No cash
Padre fans get:
Happiness
Ha-Seong Kim
I’m probably one of the few fans that at this point doesn’t care about hosmer. If you can move him, campusano is the absolute most i personally would be comfortable with them giving up. Even that is questionable, especially considering ownership doesn’t seem to be cash strapped and they were ok exceeding the CBT last year for the first time
Ha-Seong Kim
Imo, at worst, hosmer is a decent dh or in a platoon role til the end of his contract.
As long as ownership still has money and is willing to spend money, why give away prospects?
Deleted Userr
Lol Hosmer a decent dh. Next joke.
Cosmo2
Actually, at best Hosmer is a bad DH who costs a lot.
Ha-Seong Kim
@Harambe and Cosmo
Thanks for your opinions.
As a padres fan, I don’t mind him platooning vs RHP (either as a dh or 1b), especially considering ownership still has money to spend.
Rather them eat the bad deal and let hosmer ride the pine before seeing a blue chip prospect sent off with him.
Cosmo2
Yea, I’d probably release him before I’d give away a top prospect to get someone else to pay for him.
mp2891
LOL. Well yeah… That’s a net gain of about $25MM in trade value for the Padres according to BTV trade values. No team is making that trade with the Padres.
Deleted Userrr
You really think GM’s read BTV before making a trade and if the site says it doesn’t favor their team they say “Nope! Not doing it!” ?
Ha-Seong Kim
@jimthegoat
Precisely.
SDHotDawg
And … we still haven’t addressed starting pitching depth. To be fair, I’d take Glasnow over Paddack.
someoldguy
If the twins trade anyone… trade the Prospects.. or as I know them suspects… 75% top prospects fail.. what i saw of Lurch ( Larnach) say he is more guilty as charged than innocent until proven just another Oswaldo Arcia.. Rooker could be traded… Sayno should be traded.. Pitching needs to happen.. and LOTS of It
zacharydmanprin
35 players who might have horrible accidents between now and Opening Day! You won’t believe number 17!
HEHEHATE
Tapia get’s no love in colorado and his development has been hindered greatly directly playing under Bud Black. He’s got sneaky pop and could be a 15-30 guy, but Bud will just never let him have that opportunity out of his own spite for the kid and it’s a shame.
KamKid
He looks like a really good athlete. Why has he ended up in a corner? If he was CF capable, maybe the bat would be enough to stay in a lineup fairly regularly?
AHH-Rox
He has played a little CF and certainly has the speed for it. LF at Coors is big enough that you need CF speed there. But his poor throwing and route-running have left him mostly in LF.
AHH-Rox
Huh? Tapia was in the lineup almost every day when healthy last season. Maybe too early to give up on him, but it’s looking like on a good team he’s a 4th OF and pinch-runner.
JoeBrady
HEHEHATE
Bud will just never let him have that opportunity out of his own spite for the kid
=====================================
Is there a story there? All I see is a guy that has a career road OPS of .605, with no defensive value.
FullMontilla
I don’t envy the MLBTR staff writers in this lockout – this has to be, what, the 6th version of this same “story”??
Come on MLB/MLBPA, get your heads out of your collective a$$ and put an agreement together!
bobtillman
We’re all (including the writers) salivating over the transactions that’ll happen after the lockout. But I really think things will be a lot less active than everybody thinks. As soon as everybody gets back to work, there’s the (almost) likely schedule changes that have to happen, arbitration (perhaps expanded) hearings to be held, a Rule 5 draft, etc., etc., etc. Lots and lots of stuff to do.
Maybe once the season gets underway, they’ll be higher than typical movement. But not right away.
Yankee Clipper
I’m curious from someone objective: I’ve read the Yankees were going to explore Mondesi trade with the Royals. What type of player(s) would the Royals seek in a fair return? I am not familiar with the Royals in-depth needs for ‘22 or their roster plans beyond.
stymeedone
Same thing as Oakland, young controllable MLB ready players, probably OF and P, things that NYY don’t have extra of.
Yankee Clipper
Yeah, I guess I was trying to get a better feel for the type/number of prospects. Here’s why: BTV has him at 5.2M value. That’s about a young controllable 10-20 prospect for the Yankees.
I know BTV isn’t the best measure, by any stretch, but I believe it will take more than that. I don’t think it will eat into their top 5, but I’m not entirely sure what they would realistically accept for him.
rocky7
Come on Clipper, you actually bit on that junk?
Yankee Clipper
Rocky, I thought he was pretty good, defensively, like ~ 20 OOA at SS from 2019-2021.
I like him more than Simmons, but to answer your question, no, he’s certainly not my choice or recommendation. I recommend Trevor Story and have since the offseason began (only because Seager was cost prohibitive).
Story, Story, Story…. If Cash flakes out on SS, he better bring in Olson to make up for the bat, or Yankees are going to be worse off than last year.
My Yankees would take the following action, at minimum post-lockout:
Trade for Olson & Barritt
Sign Story
Sign Rodon
Pete'sView
Yankee Clipper — That’s quite a Wish List you have there. Those 4 ain’t gonna happen, the Yankees simply don’t have the prospects for all those moves.
Yankee Clipper
Pete: Well, fortunately, the NYY don’t need prospects for two of the four moves. Story/Rodon are FA and they certainly have the money for those two. The remaining two, Olson/Bassitt, they have the prospects for, and as I said, it’s what I would do if they were MY team.
I don’t expect anywhere near that from Cashman. He does have the prospect capital for an Olson/Bassitt trade, but will never, ever commit the prospects to a trade of that magnitude.
So, yeah, you’re right, quite a “wish list” since the likelihood of it coming true is, at best, 1% or less.
rocky7
In what alternate universe do you think a .230 hitter, who played 1/3 of a season in 2021, and that has very questionable defensive metrics is going to demand MLV ready players in return from any club that may inquire about this guy….and just for kicks, the Yankees given what I’ve said, certainly wouldn’t be duped into giving up too much for this guy even if he’s currently listed as a SS.
stymeedone
I just don’t see KC with a need to move him unless they get back something they can use now. If youre offering a low level lottery ticket, they will choose to just keep him. Never said he was worth the top player in the Yankees system. At the same time, Florial doesn’t move the needle for KC.
Mystery Team
At the rate the lockout is progressing it’s going to be interesting to see how all these possible transactions will happen before the season starts. I actually feel like many players that might have been moved will end up staying put for a lack of time to get things done. There’s still so many free agents to be signed never mind trades.
Yankee Clipper
I wouldn’t be surprised if several transactions are in place before the lockout ends, and then enacted as soon as practicable after. But, I agree, the longer the lockout goes the less likely the trades are to occur.
LordD99
@Clipper, I wonder if teams will wait at least a few days before announcing any “illegal” agreements?
Yankee Clipper
L99: Yeah, my assumption is that’s exactly what’s going on behind the scenes, the hypothetical, “Hey Billy, just out of curiosity, if the lockout ended tomorrow and I came to you for Olson offering …. “
I don’t doubt it, my friend.
LordD99
I’m looking forward to a transaction every 15 seconds once the lockout is over, between trades, free agent signings, arbitration results, 40-man roster moves, player extensions, etc. Three months of moves packed into three weeks!
Yankee Clipper
It’ll be awesome if that happens. So many trades, so much movement, CashHal “monitoring” the market.
LordD99
I do think CashHal will sprint out of the gate once they know the rules with the new CBA. I’m usually an optimist by nature, that is until it’s crushed out of me.
Yankee Clipper
Yes, if they are going to move I think he will pounce. If they aren’t spending money, he will try to find a deal and take time. But, I agree, if he’s truly in on, say, Olson, he will be ready to go, imho. If he’s in on Story, I don’t think that will take very long either. Once he identifies what he wants he usually doesn’t take long to get it.
The_Voice_Of_REASON
Great article. And I SUPPORT THE OWNERS!
Yankee Clipper
But remember, sir, you only support the owners when they don’t have control, as I recall. You support the players when the owners actually have full control (MiLB), right?
The_Voice_Of_REASON
I support the OWNERS in their dispute with the ungrateful, tone deaf, greedy, spoiled ‘men’ of the MLBPeeA whose minimum salary is in the top 1% of income and whose average salary (more than $4 million) is in the top 1/10th of 1% for playing a game with a stick and a ball and mittens 7-8 months per year and who receive lifetime benefits after 6 weeks on a “MLB” roster. I support paying the players in the lower leagues during Spring Training and throughout when the “baseball” season would occur, even if it doesn’t occur.
Ra
Which group is `the ungrateful, tone deaf, greedy, spoiled ‘men’?
Vladatatat 2
Anybody ever notice that when something has the tag “Voice of reason” or “true fan” or any other tag that aggressively tells you they’re better than you that they very rarely come as advertised? When someone says they are the best of most intelligent it is usually said out of insecurity and their takes are never “reasonable” or “true”.
Android Dawesome
A soon as I saw “MLBPeeA” was used I knew it wasnt a comment to be taken seriously.
Nagger
I knew it was very serious. Maybe you need your eyes replaced.
User 3044878754
Bust the union and let the players take their talents to Japan
MLB Top 100 Commenter
Bust the MONOPOLY and let the fans take control.
MLB Top 100 Commenter
Is it the spoiled millionaires or the spoiled billionaires? Could it actually be both? Yes, it could.
NoSaint
@Vladatatat 2
The psychological term is called the Dunning–Kruger effect. It’s something I deal with professionally on a daily basis :o(
BartoloHRball
I bet you rooted for the Death Star too.
LordD99
Great article. And I SUPPORT THE PLAYERS!
Yankee Clipper
I support ending the lockout…and the fans!
LordD99
Anarchist!
But, yeah, agreed.
Yankee Clipper
Lolol
NoSaint
To that end, I won’t be watching any games, nor listening to the radio, nor streaming, nor purchasing any merchandise. If an army marches on its stomach, a consumer’s power is with the purse strings. And not a penny from me.
I’ll get the Jays news/game recap from 3rd party online vendors.
scottaz
Hey A’s fans! How about a trade for Merrill Kelly of the Dbacks?
A’s trade 3b Matt. Chapman (2 Years of control at $9.85M per year) and SP Sean Manaea ( last year of control $10M), so reduce payroll by almost $30M.
To Dbacks for:
MLB Top 100 SP Brandon Pfaadt
SP Merrill Kelly (last year of control for $5.25M)
1b/DH Seth Beer (Dbacks Top 30, #12)
3b Drew Ellis (Dbacks Top 30 #15)
Beer and Ellis both played for the Dbacks in 2021. As did Kelly of course.
What do you think of that trade scenario?
Ha-Seong Kim
Im not familiar with pfaadt or Ellis, but I can’t imagine the As sellIng low on Chapman.
DarkSide830
Pfaadt is NOT a top 100 prospect and Ellis is more or less a non-entity in the prospect world at this point.
scottaz
DarkSide830 Brandon Pfaadt might not be on your personal opinion Top 100 list, but he is on Keith Law’s rankings at The Athletic! Check it out… Brandon Pfaadt #87. 21 of Keith Law’s Top 100 are RHP, so Pfaadt is the 20th best RHP prospect in all of baseball.
KamKid
Depending on what Oakland feels about those particular guys, especially Pfaadt, that seems like it could be reasonable for for them. What would Arizona’s motivation for it be though? They’d be adding money for a slight improvement to the roster for the short term but at the expense of pieces that could help beyond the next year or two. I don’t feel like I have a good idea of Arizona’s goals this year. Your trade seems like it would have to be one of a series of major moves to make sense for them. Not an A’s fan, but like most fans of other teams eyeing up their available goodies, trying to think like them a bit and it seems like the kind of package they like.
scottaz
KamKid. Good questions.
Dbacks don’t really want to add payroll, and as you said these are short term contracts. But what if the Dbacks could sign Chapman to an extension? The A’s wouldn’t do that, they are shedding payroll. The Dbacks have a glaring need at 3b and Chapman is young enough to be a long term piece at a price the Dbacks can afford, but the A’s cannot.
Pfaadt is not a familiar name to most fans, but the industry rated him as a Top 100 prospect in all of baseball. The Dbacks have 3 pitchers on that Top 100 list, none of them well known, but all very highly regarded by industry professionals.
Dbacks GM Mike Hazen believes the goal is not to have Top Rated Minor League Prospects (Dbacks currently rated 3rd or 4th best), to brag about that, but rather to develop or trade those prospects to better the major league team. So, he’d be willing to trade.
He knows Chapman and Manaea should bring a very strong package back to the A’s, with at least one Top 100 prospect. But he also understands that Oakland is dumping salary and both Chapman and Manaea are short term pieces to them, so the A’s won’t get extreme top dollar for them.
This is a very strong package. The Dbacks match up well with the A’s as a trading partner because the A’s want what the Dbacks have more than any other team…talented, young, controllable, near major league ready players.
JoeBrady
What do you think of that trade scenario?
=====================================
Not close. Manaea is better than Kelly. The other three are/were unranked minor leaguers. And Chapman alone is probably worth maybe a #50 + a #100.
scottaz
JoeBrady. Thanks for thoughts. Here are 5 questions. How would your numbers change considering these?
1). A’s Must dump salary, so Chapman and Manaea at $10M each are at the top of the list for salary dumps. Everyone knows A’s must dump, so isn’t leverage against A’s?
2) Manaea is in the last year of his contract and A’s will not do a QO. Don’t clubs have to settle for less when trading players with only 1 year left?
3) Since Kelly’s contract is roughly half of Manaea’s, the A’s will save $5M and still have a solid, reliable mid-rotation starter. Isn’t that a plus for the cost-cutting A’s?
4) Pfaadt is an MLB Top 100 starting pitcher prospect. How many Top 100 starters do the A’s currently have in their Farm System?
5) Beer (1b) is #12 ranked prospect and Ellis (3b) is #15 on the Dbacks Top 30 list. And the Dback’s Farm is rated 3rd or 4th best in baseball. If A’s trade Chapman and Olson (most experts say they will), don’t the A’s now have talented, young, controllable players at those two positions to replace them?
Deleted Userr
@scottaz I am not JoeBrady but…
1. That argument only works if the Diamondbacks are the only team that is allowed to trade for Manaea which they aren’t.
2. The A’s will absolutely go to the QO on Manaea if it comes to that.
3. The A’s would want pitchers with more control than Kelly.
JoeBrady
I’m not Harambe, but:
1-According to FG 1/19/22 analysis of the Dback farm, Pfaadt has a FV of 45+, Beer is a 40, and Ellis is 40. That’s two bench players and a borderline regular.
2-More importantly, Harambe is correct. It isn’t about what Oakland needs; it is about what other teams need. Had my RS gotten lucky and had JD opt out, I’d have been real happy to trade for Olson.
And I always ask this question. Let’s say that the proposed deal was perfectly even. If that was the case, why would AZ make the trade? They had the worst record in BB last year. Why would they trade 3 guys with 18 years of control, for one guy with 2 years of control?
Deleted Userr
@JoeBrady Yup. I’m reminded of plenty of instances where the Yankees lowballed a team in trade talks because that team “Had to shed salary” and their fans on here acted like the Yankees were doing the other team some kind of favor with that offer. They would then throw a collective tantrum when the other team traded that player to someone else.
Saying that an offer is a good offer because the other team has to shed salary only works if you have the captive market. Even in a scenario where a GM is under orders from ownership to trade a player, you still have to be the highest bidder. And if the player is even just kinda interesting like Matt Olson is, there will be legitimate offers.
Pete'sView
Not enough for the A’s.
CCCTL
That package gets you Manaea only. It’s not enough for Chapman alone.
One big issue is that Kelly is exactly what they DON’T want – a player in arbitration.
48-team MLB
The entire Mets roster should be traded aside from McNeil. They will have to do a lot of climbing to get out of the cellar and squirrels are known to be expert climbers.
MLB Top 100 Commenter
Squirrel says “you’re nuts”.
MLB Top 100 Commenter
No reason for Tapia, Paddack or Cooper to get traded.
Tapia and Cooper are cheap enough for the Rockies and Marlins to keep. Tapia has the potential to hit for a high average and the Rockies have no one better. Hilliard has too much swing and miss. Veen, Toglia and Doyle are not ready. Rockies should keep Tapia at least until the trade deadline if not beyond. Same for Marlins and Cooper. Cooper shows flashes of greatness, not worth big bucks to replace him with Rizzo or Voit. Paddack is primed for a bounce-back and while Padres may start the season with Paddack in middle relief (since they have five better pitchers), injuries will give Paddack a chance to start at some point in 2022 and he may pleasantly surprise.
joew
Pirates trading Stratton isn’t a bad idea, but he isn’t going to bring a lot in. You get a decent deal on a player you like, sure. But there is no rush and no major need to trade him given his cost and he can eat some innings out of the pen and not be the worst while having a fair chance to be better than average. Getting a probably 4th OF type and some cash would be a decent deal possibly a fringe pitcher a ways out.
If draft pick trading be comes a thing after the CBA a mid level pick or a 2nd round comp pick would be just as decent as a player.
Could possibly be a better deadline deal from teams a little more desperate
It isn’t to knock Chris, just his position with decent but not excellent play isn’t crazy hard to find
SpendNuttinWinNuttin
Enter Yankees trade x flameout prospects for Y star player comments from Yankee fans
Nagger
The Yankees should trade Volpe, Gil and Dominguez for Garrett Cooper. I just hope the Marlins would listen.
MLB Top 100 Commenter
More seriously, how about,
(1) Choice of Meyer or Cabrera, and (2) Eliser Hernandez, to Yankees,
in return for Jasson Dominguez to Marlins.
Nagger
The Yankees should trade Volpe, Gil and Dominguez for Garrett Cooper. I just hope the Marlins would listen to that weak offer.
TrueOutcomeFan
I guess Kyle Hendricks could plausibly be traded like an asteroid could plausibly hit earth in the next 30 days.
Nagger
Aristedes Dorp for Pasquale Higgins.
Who says no?
drasco036
The Cubs hanging onto Hendricks, “might be attributable to some uncharacteristic struggles”?
Pre-trade deadline, Hendricks was his usual stellar self, an ERA under 4 and in the midst of a 12 start run without a losing decision. The Cubs not trading Hendricks has nothing to do with his “uncharacteristic struggles” but everything to do with the fact that he routinely pitches like a TOR starter, is cheap and the Cubs expected to/expect to reload and compete in the Central next season.
Pete'sView
Hendricks, by any measure, is NOT a TOR arm.
cincinnatikid
If the reds decide to punt on 2022 I have a trade. Cincinnati sends Luis Castillo Sonny gray and Mike moustakes to the angels. Los Angeles sends Reid detmers, Jordan Adams, Brandon marsh and Adrian placencia to the reds. Good return for 2 starting pitchers and taking the bad contract
MLB Top 100 Commenter
Reds say no. They may use Gray for salary relief, but not Castillo.
Reds would trade Gray and Moose to Angels for sack o’ balls, or preferably, an unranks prospect..
Alternatively, Reds would trade Gray and Suarez to Mariners for sack o’ balls, or preferably an unranked prospect.
Reds would want multiple elite prospects who can play outfield, shortstop or pitcher in return for Castillo.
Best thing for Reds is to keep Castillo and Gray and just pay part of Suarez’ salary to get Mariners to take him.
Pete'sView
Problem with your suggestion is that the Reds can probably get more if they trade a number of those guys separately.
jvent
The Mets should get in on Means, he’s a lefty and the Mets need another SP, and he’s inexpensive, offer a combo of cheap players like Smith,Davis, Szapucki Lee. If the Mets can get Means, than they can put Megill and Peterson in the bullpen.
MarlinsFanBase
Garrett Cooper, unless someone can’t wait for his ilk of player, will most likely be there for Spring Training to compete for the DH/1B role against Lewin Diaz…with the only real analysis is whether Diaz is ready. If he is, Cooper likely is gone because they aren’t giving him a spot over Aguilar, and very likely the Marlins will be adding another OF which takes Cooper out of a spot there with the addition and already having Garcia, de la Cruz and Sanchez.
Logjammer D"Baggagecling
Kind of disappointing to see Kyle Hendricks on the list. So many talking heads think he will or should be traded. Some of them write for the cubs. I don’t get why a team so desperate for pitching would trade away their #1 Starter. He May not be the ace but even with Stroman and Miley he’s still their #1
I’m more surprised Willson Contreras isn’t on the list. I stand firm on the cubs needing to extend him
NostraThomas
Not surprised to see Tampa all over this list. Problem is they rarely “lose” when they trade.
I firmly believe there’s a lot of hush-hush GM conversations going on. And why not? Unless there’s a no trade clause, the players are the last to know anyway. So, the players are locked out, not the GMs.
So, with the amount of time they’ve had (and the time they won’t have post lockout), I think the bigger trades are already done. The players backed off of the service time changes from what it appears. The draft pick won’t be involved with a QO anymore, I believe.
So, I envision there would be a bloody free agent frenzy on day one, similar to the NFL and NBA. Must see TV.
I just hope we get there soon. I’d rather be complaining about Aaron Boone.
Ra
What is the `problem?`
Jimbob 57
Cubs won’t be trading Hendricks until at least trade deadline if ever